PART THREE OF THE 2017 PREDICTION. THE DRAGON GETS A VOTE!

Over the past few days, I’ve addressed the issue of predicting what might take place in 2017 and what really matters. So, the final part of that review deals with the Dragon. We’ve looked at the Tsar and Trump equation, but both of those theories are absolutely incomplete without factoring in the final piece of the triad that will determine the events of 2017 and beyond.

What does the Dragon want?

What is the Dragon willing to bring to the negotiation table? 

Does the Dragon attempt to make its mark on the word simply based on threats?

Here are three quick answers and then I’ll dive into each with more detail.

1.      The Dragon wants economic stability and that is nearly impossible with over 1.4 BILLION citizens.

2.      The Dragon is willing to compromise on shipping lanes, littoral lanes, for now. (Neutral water is the key phrase in 2017….remember that.)

3.       The Rabid Dog called North Korea and the survival of Taiwan. Two way the Dragon may work from the bases of threats.

Did the Dragon just wake up one day and say to itself, “I think I will swallow the most active littoral lanes in the world and see if I can upset everyone around me”? No! China is a nation that embarked on a capitalistic journey over 30 years ago with the intent to enslave the rest of the Western world on cheap goods and in the meantime use the funding to build an unmatched military. What happened next is classic and yes, predictable. The people of China, even the ones that run the country, became addicted to the lifestyle the Capitalistic based economy created. You see, the Dragon designed a very complex plan to carve out their slice of the world, a slice that would have to be huge given the 1.5 Billion people that would have to be served by this plan. Yep. A fatal flaw! They designed a very complex plan for their future and somehow truly believed they could keep their massive population loyal to the Communist philosophy, a philosophy that also has a fatal flaw; the suppression of individualism! In the end the Dragon now sits on its land with a very small percentage of its population reaping the rewards of this Master Plan. In the land of the Dragon, one person drives a new car while a hundred watch with envy. They are not part of the “plan”! That is the fatal flaw and the Dragon knows it.  Survival? How does the Dragon survive such a deadly mistake? Land, power, fear!

THE MEETING:

Will there be a face to face between Trump and the leader of the Dragon’s Master Plan, Jinping? Eventfully there has to be, even if relationships get worse. Both the US and the Chinese will have to show the world they are trying to make things right. As for the Tsar, his meeting has taken place. The Dragon and the Tsar have shook hands, with fingers crossed behind their backs! They will meet again, but when, well, that will depend on how President Trump starts his relationship with the Dragon. But, when Trump finally sets his “China Policy”, the world and the Tsar will wait to see how the Dragon responds. Will the Chinese approach with the carrot or the stick? Will it be more of one, but a little of the other?  Can the Dragon afford to have President Trump set the scene? Can the Dragon allow the South China Seas issue to be set by the US? The answer is no!

EXPANSIONISM:

By setting into motion a plan for becoming prominent on the world stage, the Dragon has become trapped in the death spiral of Expansionism! The land and materials of China cannot support the dreams of 1.5 Billion people. The Dragon now knows it needs more than just the littoral lanes of the Pacific. To survive, to keep the population of its land content and thus supportive, the Dragon must now fly to new territories! It must rule over distant shores. China may have dreamed of maintaining the “rule” through economic might. It may have believed that the threat of no longer providing low cost goods would be enough to keep the people of the ruled lands happy. Why, just listen to the economic “experts” in the West when they get paid to talk on the cable news. “ If Trump takes a hard stance with China, it will bring on economic disaster for the US”! Yes, to this level the Dragon’s plan has worked. Fear! Fear of not having cheap goods. Fear of a trade war! Doom and gloom! “We must not upset/ wake / the Dragon”! Then. Then along comes a Billionaire Businessman who suddenly, unpredictably, becomes President of the most powerful nation in the world.  A man who sees through the Dragon’s Master Plan. A man that knows it is not too late to break the economic slavery that has so masterfully been placed over the rest of the world. What does this mean to the Dragon? It means one thing. A threat. It means the Dragon now fears its soft spot has been identified. The ability to keep the people of the China content, loyal, is based upon all the world’s money flowing into China. Now, the most powerful nation in the world has a leader that stands up and says, “No”. A leader who states, “We conduct our economies on a level playing field or we don’t play at all.  A Businessman’s approach.  

THE DANGER:

Hacked emails, tinkering in another countries’ politics. This has been going on for thousands of years! The US sits today with DC foaming at the mouth over hacked emails of arrogant, ignorant politicians in the US and the people of the US are expected to hear their leaders talk of “ Acts of War”?

In DC and in the US government, “intelligent” people will try to warn the new President just how dangerous it is to anger the Dragon! Threaten the Dragon’s economic stability and you threaten the stability of the nation itself. Far more dangerous than emails and 20 year old hackers who happen to find the email sent by a group of idiots who put their passwords in the emails.

The Dragon has been content to fly over the lands of others inside of FEDEX.  Littoral lanes have spread the Dragon’s domain to all corners of the world. If the US decides to change the current course of the world’s economy, then it must be prepared for the possible response.  Sound like a warning to the end bound US President? Here is the bad news. The appetite of 1.5 Billion people is too much for the current plan of the Dragon.  Two choices face the Chinese. Scale back your expectations of your future. Make the world fear more than just your economic weapons!

2017, the year a Billionaire Businessman leading the most powerful nation in the world will make a decision that will determine the Dragan’s next move!

Remember these words. “ Neutral Waters”.

THE OPTIONS “DOORS” OF 2017. THE TSARS PERSPECTIVE

Yesterday I ended by part one of my 2017 Big Three predictions conversation with what actions Trump should consider first.  Today I’m going to take a hack, a funny word right now with the Russians, at what the optional “Doors” the Tsar will need to consider in 2017.

TIME FOR CHANGE OR STICK WITH THE PLAN?

For several years now, I’ve addressed the issue of the Tsar’s vision for Mother Russia by the year 2017. Some of us have espoused the theory that 2017 was a benchmark year for Putin. His “vision / plan” for Russia has some level of culmination in 2017. The pending elections are just part of the plan, but it’s very possible other benchmarks were to be met no later than 2017.  No doubt, the election of Donald Trump tossed brand new variables into the “Master Plan” and as I have said, no doubt modifications to the “Master Plan” have taken place given Trump’s victory. So, what does the Tsar do? Does he stick with the old plan? Switch to the new plan? Wait until he sits with Trump? Waits until he see what direction Trump really heads? Yes, there have been behind the scene meetings, but the Tsar is a visual, physical kind of person. It’s almost as if he was born in Missouri, “Show me”! What door, doors, does he pick?

WHAT DOES THE TSAR NEED IN 2017?

 Europe! The Tsar needs Europe to lean away from sanctions on Russia. The Tsar needs Europe to see Russia as a reliable Ally in 2017. The Tsar needs Europe to depend on Russia more in 2017 than at any time in the recent past. When President Trump comes to the table with, “What do you want? What worries you”, the Tsar will most likely start this conversation with Europe and the subtopic of NATO. His actions in the Middle East are about fuel and they are about countermeasures. Remember my theory of how the Tsar has manipulated the immigration of Middle Easterners and Africans to Europe; the weaponization of migration! Does President Trump understand the crisis Europe is experiencing is a deliberate process? A process set in motion by the Tsar as he leveraged passive, progressive European leaders. Does President Trump realize the Tsar’s concept of creating change in European governments by manipulating immigration? When Trumps says, “what do you want”, does the Tsar answer, “Eastern Europe without NATO”? An even more interesting question comes next. How does President Trump answer? From the Tsar’s point of view, demands and threats are more powerful than bartering. Is the Tsar prepared to barter? If so, what is he willing to place in front of Trump? What is the answer when the Tsar ask, “What do you want”? Is Trump prepared to answer? My recommendations from yesterday on Trump’s “door” of options may or may not be ready by the time this meeting takes place, but in the end, the Tsar will be ready for that critical meeting, for you see, he’s been planning! Here is my last question about this pending meeting? What if President Trump ask for something the Tsar is not willing to trade?

A COMMON BARTERING ISSUE.

If President Trump comes to the table and the bartering items he has is something as monumental as the future of NATO, then you can bet, the Tsar will need to be ready to give on a monumental issue as well. How bad does the Tsar desire to secure the future of Russia’s old “Buffer Zone”, Eastern Europe? Bad enough to break his apparent relationship with the Dragon? Yes. I believe he would do so in a heartbeat and here is why? There never was a “relationship” between the Dragon and the Tsar. Smoke and Mirrors with a little mixture of truth, that has been the Dragon and the Tsar’s relationship and they both know it. But……. Does Trump know this before their meeting? Does he truly understand the game the Tsar has been playing? Will President Trump take the bait? Does Trump trade Eastern Europe for a fake relationship?

In the end, Trump wants to make sure there is no alliance between the Dragon and the Tsar. The Tsar wants a Europe dependent on Mother Russia. The problem becomes, does the Tsar really have something of equal value to Eastern Europe? Will his love affair photo op with the Dragon trick the savvy Businessman, Billionaire President?  Oh ya….. in the end… the Dragon gets a vote and that is tomorrow topic. 

2017.  ALL THE EXPERT PREDICTIONS. I THINK THEY MISSED THE MARK.

I think I’ve read more “expert” opinions, analysis, about 2017, then I’ve ever seen published. It must be the arrival of President Trump that has so many “experts” rushing to the keyboard. After finishing a few posted by some of the more reputable writers that cover the Middle East, Asia, Central and South America, the real hot spots in the world, I sat and pondered why I didn’t feel like they had made a clear argument for their points of view.

Just how many “small” issues can a person who is trying to forecast the future afford to cover without blurring the real important of their prediction? Is it not simpler to keep it “simple” when doing predictions? Doesn’t an “Expert” run the risk of being wrong by getting two technical. “ The price of fuel in Africa will impact the elections in Nicaragua”, or some other over educated statement by a professional drunk writer in his 60s or the always abundant College Professor who’s view of the world comes from feeding pigeons from the Campus park bench at lunch time as he works on his fifteenth novel on the “ Middle East”. Yep…. Violence sells!

Okay, so I took my swipe at most of the junk I read about what will take place in 2017. Yes, the antithesis,( that’s right… I used “ antithesis”…Sister Bernice would be proud), would be just as worthless. “ The world will be more dangerous in 2017 than in the past given Trumps victory”. Sadly most of the folks who get paid to sit sexy in front of the camera go just about this deep in their analysis, but then again, they are not paid because they are intelligent; right Megyan Kelly?

What is the right mixture when it comes to the art of predictive analysis? How do you avoid dumpster diving or sounding like you are scared to be pinned down? Does it depend on the topic under review? Yep. If you are out to talk about the world’s future, then the items addressed need to be very important, very large and very simplistically covered and they need to be reviewed in just that order. So, here we go, here is how I would tackle the topic of “2017 and where in the world is the World going”?

THE UNITED STATES, CHINA  AND RUSSIA: 

The actions of these three nations will set the course for the rest of the world in 2017. Yes, other nations will have events, other nations will have an impact on the world, but shy of some biological superbug being turned lose on the world by a sixth year med student, the actions of smaller nation’s events will be controlled by the Big Three!   

Where is the relationship between these three going in 2017?  Is Trump going to rock the boat with the Dragon while he reaches out to the Tsar? Is that the Trump plan? Some make it sound as such. I have a question for those “experts” who placed a bet on Trump’s actions. What about the plans of the Dragon and the Tsar? Did you factor that into your, “Trump will do this and Trump will do that”, prediction? If not, and I bet not, then you failed!

DOORS:

In front of all three leaders are dozens of doors, each leading to a course for the nation on a variety of topics and at each door is a team of “Expert Advisers” who pitch why their door is the best pathway for 2017. These “experts” come from all corners of society. Some are longtime, close friends, some are academy, some are corporate heads and some are old political mentors. The process these three leaders go through to choose the doors they will open can be unique to the leader. You see, the personality of each of the three is a key factor in what will take place in the word of 2017 and trust me, the team of experts, vendors, for each door,  dedicate a great deal of time and effort understanding these personalities. Even more interesting is the fact that many of these doors where designed prior to Trump’s election victory. A few months ago, I addressed the concept of nations coming up with their “plans” for dealing with the US elections and it was at that time many of these “doors” were developed. Backdoor meetings, unofficial communiques they are all played out by the Expert Adviser Teams as they designed the doors. Now that I’ve addressed my “door” concept, let me take a shot at Trump’s door decisions for 2017. I’ll address the Tsar’s and the Dragon’s in the next two days.  

THE WEDGE:

Wedge! In 2017 President Trump will need to drive a wedge between the Tsar and the Dragon. For all the talk and all the speculation about the increasing love affair between the Tsar and the Dragon, it’s nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Putin knows all too well that posing in front of a Dragon for purposes of showing your enemies who your new friend might make a great postcard, but that only holds true while the Dragon is not hungry. Quick reminder. Who owned most of the mineral rich Siberian landmass prior to the Russians? Yep. The land of Dragons! What does the Dragon need to continue to build it’s Kingdom? Yep. Everything that exist in the ground of Siberia.  Ask the Nixon Administration survivors, Henry Kissinger, what was the closest the world ever came to nuclear war? Hint, it was not the Cuban Missile Crisis.   

At the end of the day, the Tsar is better off with the West than he is with the East. Even his DNA shows him where he needs to place the future of Russia. Trump’s team must find the door that places a wedge between the Tsar and the Dragon. Yes, there may be sacrifices. Yes, some old Allies may feel betrayed, but then again, betrayal is one of the pillars of international affairs.   

Months ago, the Tsar’s team began to plan for the possibility of Trump’s victory. Understanding what the Tsar wants from Trump and Trump understanding what the Tsar desires that is the beginning of finding a wedge. Trump and the Tsar will meet soon after Trump takes his place in the White House. The meeting may be slightly delayed given the uproar of the information warfare that has been taking place between the two countries, but it will happen sooner than most think.

 When they finally meet, the first words out of Trump’s mouth should be, “ok Vlad, what do you want? Here’s what I want! What do you fear? Here’s what I fear, I fear that when it is all said and done, the Dragon will rule your land and mine! What do we do about it”?

Tomorrow:

The Tsar’s “doors”! 

THE END OF 2016. WHAT TOOK PLACE? WHAT DID WE LEARN?

For a large part of the world, New Year’s Eve is upon us. There’s been so much talk about what challenging year 2016 has been, but I have to ask you, is there ever a year that is not “challenging”? To hear some preach it, 2016 was an epic disaster. Conflict, Elections, increasing debt, failed Foreign Policy and so on and so on! Was 2016 really any different than any other year?

Yes, and the answer is on several levels… “Yes”!  All of us understand that old saying, “Times Change”, but controlling “change”, that is the challenge. If we can’t control “change”, as much as possible, then we become passengers on a ride to destination we did not set. We become observers of our future and not Masters!

The reality is, we have a growing challenge in 2017. A challenge that is based on technological change and the speed of “change”. Social Media. The ability for the world to communicate at a moment’s notice without any level of verification. Billions of people having the ability to speak with each other on any topic or event they may desire. Not the first time I’ve mentioned this change and it will not be the last.

So, why did social media make 2016 “different”?

For years the concept of “Information Warfare” has been played out by mankind. I addressed this concept a few weeks ago, but it’s safe to say 2016 witnessed a new level of this dangerous game. Yesterday, an old worn-out US Politician made the dangerous statement the recent events between the US and Russia was an act of war on the Russians part. Words such as that use to cause panic in the US and the rest of the world.  Yes, the 2016 US Elections were impacted by “outside” influence. To what level and to what purpose and by whom, is speculation. One Super Power accusing another of interfering with its national sovereignty is a very….very…dangerous accusation for the whole world.

2016 witnessed the issue of Information Warfare pushing two Super Powers closer to the brink of war! No attack on a major navel yard. No airplanes flown into buildings full of innocent people. Stolen emails. A series of events where electronic copies of truthful statements that one political party didn’t want the rest of the nation they operate in to see or even know about. That is the event that has brought about the words, “Act of War”.

2016 was “different”. 2016 witnessed change, at least for those who are paying attention. 2016 showed the world the horrors of genocide in places like Syria. 2016 witnessed corrupt governance so quickly that governments had no real, logical explanation for their actions. 2016 showed the human race, not just nations or individuals, just how fast society was moving and speeding up with every minute of every day.

I once joked the internet would give the world a collective nervous breakdown. Joked!

2016 witnessed two nuclear super powers use the words, “ Act of War” over emails! Has the world been in danger before because of stolen information? Yes, many times.

Has the world been able to form an opinion on such events within minutes of them being known and without a logical response for government? Billions of opinions. Billions of perceptions.

Communicating? How much of a good thing can we afford?

When does the ability to push technology to the edge become more than modern society can handle? 

MEXICO. DID SOMETHING JUST CHANGE WHEN NOBODY WAS LOOKING?

As much as I would love to follow up last night’s post on the topic of the US’s response to Russia and the information war the Russians are winning, I have to address one of my favorite topics; Mexico! Besides, the topic of Russian and US relations will be far more interesting after the Tsar responds to the US actions of today. Short answer, I’ll follow up tomorrow. Now, off to the topic at hand.

Back in 2013, after working on “issues” in relations to Mexico for over six years, I decided to post a separate blog site.  http://coldansviewpointmexico.blogspot.com/

My history of working Mexico “issues” is well known to some and my opinions of what the future held and holds for Mexico is almost as well known. To make a long story short, sometime around 2006, I began to observe the trend in the Mexican government to involve the Mexican Army and Marines into the day to day activities of civilian law enforcement. Those of you that know my background and or worked with me at the time can recall what a dangerous trend I found this to be. Bending the ear of some of my “coworkers”, some with Stars on their shoulders, was my first reaction. My theory then was the same that it is today, Mexico is perpetually on the edge of a Failed Nation State. Now grant you, saying such a thing when those you work with are in the business of working with the Mexican Military, well, that’s not a popular thing to do. Perhaps that’s why I was so adamant about my position then.

I’ve been “retired” for over two years now, but the ability to observe Mexico is not that difficult and it’s something I do on a daily schedule. So, what happened? What made me push away from my favorite area of interest and sit down to talk about Mexico again? I will tell you this, after I finished reading several sites that have a real sense for how things are going in Mexico, I had to wait a few hours before I patted myself on the back!

Almost Ten years ago! Hard to believe it’s been that long, but almost ten years ago, the Mexican government took the monumental leap of faith, an act of pure desperation, and authorized the Mexican Military to conduct day today law enforcement activities in several key areas of the country. I remember having a meeting and saying to several folks at my table, “This is the spiral Mexico need to avoid at all cost. This was the window our, US, Enemies will work hard to exploit”. Well, some of that conversation feel on deaf ears and some continued to engage in the issue. My point back then was simple, militaries are not designed, trained, equipped to conduct day to day, civilian law enforcement. For the Mexican government to take such a measure was nothing short of capitulation. How could any government, state, local, federal explain the failure of providing the most basic Tennent of a civil society? What message was sent to the Mexican people when this decision was made? Now, mind you, at the time, many of the Mexican Citizens were demanding action. So corrupt, so dysfunctional were the civilian law enforcement agencies of most of Mexico the people began to realize the only way they were going to feel safe was to form their own “Defense Teams”. Yes, When the Antidefense movement appeared, that was the second alarm bell some of us sounded on the topic of Mexico. Failed leadership. Failed Governance all overlooked or mostly ignored for the sake of “Relations”.   I could go on and on about Mexico and the concerns I’ve had for years, but my opening comment was that something happened, something changed. So, enough about the history of “looking” at Mexico, let me address the most dangerous decision that is about to be made by the failed organization called the Mexican government.

General Salvador Cienfuegos was not the Commander of the Mexican Military when it was placed on the streets of Mexico nearly ten years ago, but, from day one, the sentiment of most of the Mexican Generals was no different than Cienfuegos’. http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/12/mx-army-general-if-you-want-us-to-go.html .  Reluctance was the baseline reaction of most of the Mexican Military Leadership  ten years ago and that reluctance has now begun to change into anger and it is this anger that some of us predicted would become the end result of this failed attempt to ease the minds of the Mexican people. Simply put, the Mexican military is tired. It’s tired of being placed in a position where it’s critics blame them for every death that is unsolved. It’s tired of civilian leadership that is every bit as incompetent as the government that put them on the streets ten years ago.

Cienfuegos “Threats”?

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/12/mexico-drug-war-proposed-law-of.html

Did General Cienfuegos “threaten” the leadership of Mexico? Did he really spell out “demands”? Where his words designed to instill even more authority into the Mexican Military or perhaps was he simply stating how exhausted Mexico’s Military has become? Were his words a warning more ominous than simply attempting to gain more power? Does Cienfuegos fear the last remaining tool to keep Mexico from becoming a Failed Nation State, the Mexican Military, is about to give up? ‘ I will be the first to raise my hands”! Such a strange statement from a man who has worked to save the streets of his nation for over ten years. His nation, not the streets of some far off land. Not the streets of some distant conquest. His streets, his land, his people?  

Ladies and Gentleman, for over ten years I’ve preached the troubles of Mexico. What laws the inept government of Mexico passes in the near future will seal the fate of Mexico. Nieto’s decision to keep the Mexican Military on the streets of Mexico must be backed by laws that support the Military. If not, and the military is still told to continue to conduct law enforcement duties, the breaking point will come. Not with the good people of Mexico, but with the last organization the Mexican people truly trust.

The same Mexican leaders who could not implement “change” for civilian law enforcement, who could not change a corrupt legal system, who could not stop filling off shore bank accounts with drug money is the same government the Mexican Military will finally have to turn on.

Nearly ten years ago, I told a good friend who had several Stars on his shoulders, the military move to the streets of Mexico was the beginning of the next revolution.  His response was more chilling than my comment. “Well Dan….it is Mexico”. 

OBAMA’S PARTING SHOT AGAINST THE RUSSIANS. JUST HOW DANGEROUS IS IT?

So the US administration announced pending “actions” against the Russians? Interesting they picked  to announce this event the same day Secretary of State Kerry gave a worthless lecture to Israel as his parting shot. It’s no surprise the current US administration has flown their Anti Semite Colors at the very end of their eight year run. Making the leader of a free nation and a once strong Ally enter the White House by the backdoor was the first real clues of Obama’s anti-Jewish feelings, but let me get back to the issue at hand.  

So the US is going to announce additional sanctions on the Russians? Wow! That will show them! That’s a Progressive Liberal’s way of showing just how down in the dirt they can get. Take that Tsar. Ya…. Now you know who you are messing with. Good grief!

Why did the US telegraph this event? If you truly wanted to get revenge for a cyber event, why wouldn’t you just do something and then disavow the whole issue?  Why make a media event out of it? Well, that is what the US Administration does and they are not the only ones. Domestic, political leveraging is a timeless concept carried out by just about every government in the known world. So, if we are to assume this event is more for the internal, public consumption of the US, then the Russian reaction was probably not factored into the formula. Did the Russians react? When I checked Sputnik.com. I couldn’t find a response. With the time differential, it may have been too soon or perhaps something else took place? Did the Tsar just blow off the big announcement from the US? Probably not. If “Face Saving” is the objective of the US Administration, how could they possibly believe fore even a single minute the Tsar would allow the US to make such a statement and not respond? As a matter of fact, there was a response. It was covered in Western media, but no official story on Sputnik, at least not yet.

Is this telegraphed event going to have repercussions? Will the Tsar make a point of embarrassing the outgoing US Administration one last time? I would be his response will verbally far more impressive to the world public than the announcement of yet another threat of sanctions. In the arena of verbal combat, the US is outgunned.  Will the Tsar simply move his energy towards the Trump Administration and let Obama go with a verbal slap? Well, there was a good chance of that taking place up until the stupidest statement of all was mentioned in the US’s announcement today.

“Some unannounced actions” taken is a covert manner? Several weeks ago, when this whole story of the Russians impacting the US election became the answer as to why Trump won, I wrote about how dangerous it was to threaten another nation, the Russians no less, when you had no history of backing up your statements or even worse, when the world is your audience and they wait for the response. It could be the Tsar would have been willing to just grin his typical grin and let this “announcement” pass, but then the US blew it! They had to add the unannounced slice, or at least the Administration’s version of Sputnik.com … CNN did so.

Dumb! Just dumb! After eight years as the leader of the most powerful nation in the world, you would think the Obama team would have figured this out. Just because you have a history in US politics of saying outrageous statements while the political opponent takes the ‘high ground”, doesn’t mean that theory translates into international affairs. Truly something Obama and his team never figured out. As I said weeks ago, if anything happens now………anything…….. the Tsar is in a perfect position to blame the US.

The Armature Hour in the US ends on January 20^th of 2017.

Let’s hope the Trump version of “ Zero Button” has a better impact than the last one.

Vindictiveness. A trait of many world leaders.

Let’s see how this plays out.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/28/politics/russian-election-meddling-sanctions-hacking/index.html

AMBASSADOR KARLOV’S ASSASSINATION. HOW DID IT HAPPEN?  

Behind the scene of all the political drama this assassination created, sits a very….very…concerning question. A question that everyone that has ever been in the business of keeping others safe is asking. How? How did the Assassin gain a position of such importance and trust? Simply put, how did this happen? Well, let’s take a look at just a few events that took place prior to this attack and see if they might provide any clues!

 The purge:

For over two years now, Egodan has been on a completely uncontrolled journey of dismantling the Law Enforcement agencies of Turkey. His obsession with the idea that Gulen’s followers had infiltrated almost every level of every Law Enforcement agency in Turkey is well documented. Egodan’s paranoia has no limits and after the attempted coup, well, he became clinically neurotic; as if he wasn’t already so. History has shown us that purges based on paranoia always result in dysfunctional organizations that produce even more dramatic events.

After the purge of Turkish Law Enforcement agnecies, it is very likely the surviving leadership was nearly desperate to fill the voids created by the purging actions. How well were the new “recruits” vetted? How expedited was the background process? It’s a universal fact that law enforcement agencies that attempted to quickly bring on additional members eventually suffer from the quality of the members they so quickly pushed through the process. Turkish law enforcement management not only had to try to refill the ranks of their organizations, but they had to do so with under the scrutiny of a mad man. I could go on and on about the consequences of Egodan’s actions, but the bottom line is this, Turkey’s ability to provide one of the basic tenets of a functional society, law enforcement, has been severely damage.

 The Consequences:

The consequences of Egodan’s purge mentality go far deeper than just a loss of basic, law enforcement. The Turkish military has been just rendered just as inoperable as their law enforcement partners and the world knows it. The Tsar knows this better than anyone and never forget my theory on his desire to neutralize NATO. By the way, is the Tsar willing to sacrifice an Ambassador for the sake of reaching his goal? Absolutely!

Imagine the reaction of the other countries agencies charged with protecting their diplomats when they are in Turkey? What was the reaction when they learned who the shooter was? Where is the level of trust in any other member of that Turkish security agency? Just think of the shock the good member of the Turkish Security Service had to endure. People who carry a gun for a living, people who are charged with keeping the peace and the protection of the unprotected take great pride in what they do. Honor runs deep in that part of the world and honor was ripped from the good members on that day. Trust was destroyed not because of anger, but out of necessity. Could the US State Department Security program trust anyone assigned by Turkish officials after that day? What was the damage done at the operational, partnerships level after that day?

When the Assassin decided he was going to kill the Russian Ambassador, did he contemplate the impact it would have on the organizations sworn to keep people safe? Did he truly understand the damage of trust he would create? I bet not. His motive was the motive of most Assassins, revenge! The ramifications, the increase cost of keeping others safe after this attack was never factored into his goal.

As quickly as the question of “how” could be contemplated, typically by the political leaders of the world, the reality is, most organization tasked with keeping people safe asked a different question. A question with even greater consequences. “Are there more”? That question can be framed in a different fashion. “Did he have help”? Now, most logical, normal individuals at recognized, professional agencies asked this question in a very scripted way. Finding that answer is almost a checklist process for most. Most, but not for the man who runs Turkey. If any event could drive Egodan’s paranoia deeper into the realm of irrational behavior, it would be the assassination of a Russian Diplomat in Turkey!   What action did he take after this act? What actions will he take because of this act?

The assassination of a Russian Ambassador is an extremely dangerous event. The assassination taking place in a country run by someone like Egodan, well, that makes predictive analysis nearly impossible.  I have to wonder where the Assassin’s Supervisor is. Does he have any fingernails left? Did he even have a clue? Frankly, to a man like Egodan, it doesn’t matter!