THE RETURN OF TURKISH CITIZENS, DOES THAT MEAN TURKEY IS IN NOW?

A little over two weeks ago, the standard US State Department answer on the support of Turkey for anti IS movement was, “they are really hamstrung by the ‘hostages’ and are limited in what they can do”!

Ok, the Hostages are back!

Now what?

Can the Western / NATO / forces fly out of the NATO airbase in Turkey?

Will Turkey’s military openly support the operation?

Perhaps we should look at this issue from another perspective?

Is the new Ottoman Sultan going to allow the Kurds to come out of the battle with IS victorious?

What is more important to the Ottomans?

The destruction of Islamic State forces or the suppression of Kurdistan?

I bet I know!

Now, is it possible there will be some, “unofficial” support, limited in nature, from Turkey?

Probably enough to placate the West; a West that is desperate not to criticize the Turks in the first place.

Pulling Sunni so called “moderate” forces all the way to Saudi for months of training makes far less sense than simply moving them across the border into Turkey, a military that is very skilled at training to NATO standards.

Is that going to happen?

Is our NATO partner going to play a NATO role?

Some things always take place without fanfare.

Sometimes, some of these “things” are more important than the ones placed in the open.

Is Turkey going to play their required NATO role now that the excuse is gone? 

IF ISLAMIC FORCES “MUTATE”, WILL THE WEST STILL PURSUE?

Rumors upon rumors in the past few days centered around IS forces folding in with other Sunni movements in Syria have perpetuated yet another key question.

If IS forces “mutate”, will the West / US / still pursue the fight?

How many similar movements is the West ready to attack?

Last week, I stated one of the most common forms of survival for Guerrilla fighters is to melt away and live to fight another day.

One version of this tactic is to hide inside a movement much like the one that is targeted, but not currently on the “target list”.

Now, the argument can be made that if an organization is forced to take such action, then “change” has been forced upon them and that change can lead to an acceptable outcome.

If IS forces are forced to go to ground, forced to fold into a like organization, does that render them less effective?

Yes.

Does that mean the battle is won?

Absolutely not.

Here is one of the greatest dangers with this course of action.

It’s very probable the sympathetic attitude towards this group can come flowing to the surface if in the act of “retreat” they are attacked. 

It’s the accepted action of barbaric, uncivilized movements, but it’s an act that is quickly  questioned in a “civilized” nation.

Simply put, if the bad guys hide inside a group not seen as a threat and then they are attacked, the world opinion can turn virtually overnight.

If you doubt me, ask the Israelis about the tactic of Hamas hiding amongst it civilian population.

Who understands this modern day, civilized media driven phenomenon?

Yep…. The Leadership of IS; that’s who.

Winter is coming to Northern Iraq and Syria.

A winter where unmotivated, poorly lead Iraqi forces and war ravaged Syrian units will take every opportunity they can to avoid combat…. By the way…combat in the freezing cold is much...much more difficult than in the heat of Summer.

As for the Kurd forces…. winter is an excellent time to train….plan and demand more advanced weapons from an over energetic Western leadership so called “ coalitions”.

Remember…. The Country of Kurdistan must be the endstate of this conflict and new Western weapons will ensure that vision……at the anger  of the Ottoman Empire.

If IS mutates…… will the West pursue?

I know my answer.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/563897-key-al-qaeda-branches-urge-united-jihadist-front-against-coalition

DID THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES JUST SAVE THE GCC/ WESTERN RELATIONSHIP?

First off, it’s important to realize if someone really wants to understand what is taking place in the Middle East, they have to look outside of Western media sources.

Again, today, I’ve found yet another superbly written article on the topic of how the fight with I.S. will be executed. Simply put; Dr. Karasik knocked the ball out of the park!

Before I address the importance of today’s question, I want to take a moment to focus on an important part of not only this crisis, but crisis in general and how Western leadership fails to carry a message.

When you read this article, ask yourself, why couldn’t the US or other Western leaders articulate the major details of how this “Strategy” should unfold?

Look at the detail of what Dr. Karasik states here.

Why can these details not be the core talking points for any Western Government’s announcements on the “strategy”?

Spelling out how our Allies will support, why their ability to execute these key task in the plan are far more likely to succeed than if the West tried them, is important.

So, why did it take an article from Al Arabiya by Dr. karasik to give this new “strategy” clarity?

Unfortunately, I think I know the answers….yes…answers…not …. Answer.

Fist off, most of our Western Leaders don’t take the time to “understand” what their staffs are developing.

Gone are the days of true Statesmen, at least in the US.

Everyone is too worried about how the political rivals may leverage every single event that takes place.

None of them stop to realize, if they would just take the time to listen to the level of detail that is worked out in the multinational working groups, they would be able to sound a little more intelligent on the topic when standing at the podium.

Here is the second answer and it’s more pathetic than the first.

Western leaders, unfortunately, understand all too well the level of interest or understanding their voting members worry about.

Simply put, a poorly worded, thought out answer is sufficient and knowing that leads to leadership who sees no need to take the time to “learn”.

Ok, off my Soapbox and back to the question at hand.

Did the Islamic Forces success just save the GCC / Western relationship?

What level of forgiveness is the are the GCC partners looking for?

How convinced do they need to become the West / US / is coming back to their side of the “change movement” in the region?

Is this reformed alliance one of “convenience” and thus short lived?

As the US drives towards greater energy independence, do the GCC partners see a limted, rekindled love affair here?

I’m not going to answer the key question of the day, but I will end with one of my favorite, timeless sayings from the region; “ The enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”!

My twist to this saying has always been, “for now”!!!!

Well done Dr. Karasik….well done!!!

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/14/Analyzing-the-emergence-of-the-GCC-4-against-ISIS.html

OBAMA’S PLAN FOR ISLAMIC STATE FORCES. DOES IT BENEFIT AL-QAEDA?

I read a great article by a very knowledgeable writer the other day, link attached, and it addressed a topic that has swirled around the US announced plan even before it was official.

In short, the issue is this.

Does degrading the Islamic State Forces increase the odds of Al-Qaeda / al-Nasra / regaining the momentum in not only Syria, but the region?

Does al-Nusra become the “acceptable” level of Sunni resistance given the complete incompetence of the FSA?

To the West the answer is a resounding no!

But, what about to the young Sunni followers who have absolutely nothing else to latch on to other than fighting and talking?

If IS forces are not glorified by forcing the West to attack them, then what of other less radical groups?

Has the Radical Islamic movement mutated so far out of hand that the likes of Al-Qaeda is acceptable at some level?

Just how much of a consideration was this given when the US planners were developing the new “Strategy”?

This author goes on to address the topic of groups, even Al-Qaeda itself, perhaps modifying their actions.

Does that sound outrageous?

I will tell you that is the history of any radical movement for the past few thousand years.

In the inner chambers of some world leaders and power brokers, the idea of finding some organization that can bring stability to the region is being addressed.

Is that organization the FSA?

Is that organization a new hybrid yet to be announced?

Is that organization a mutated / renamed / version of Al-Nusra  or even Al-Qaeda?

Is there something inside a Middle Eastern Cocoon? 

If you think this is outrageous, then your are probably living West of the Nile River.

If you are looking to bring some form of balance to a region of the world in crisis, then you probably pray on Fridays!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/563424-back-to-front

THE “PLAN” FOR COMBATING ISLAMIC STATE FORCES….WILL IT WORK?

I’ve purposely avoided posting for the past three days, although  I don’t like do so, as I waited to hear the President of the United States divulge his “plan / strategy” for combating the Islamic State Movement.

By the way, just because the US President gave a quick little explanation as to why he and his staff continue to address the IS forces as ISIL or ISIS, that doesn’t mean the world will follow.

So, back to the question everyone who worries about IS worries about.

Will the US strategy work?

I waited a few days to hear this strategy, and then spent a day pondering what it would lead to or what it would be impacted by.

If you have followed me for the past few years, you know exactly where I am going with this.

Did the strategic planers capture the possible second order effects topics?

Did they think through the class Law of Unintended Consequences?

Yes, the overarching question is, “will it work” and I will end tonight as I have for the whole month; asking a question for my readers to ponder.

Having said that, let me list the issues that must be addressed if anyone has the slightest hope of answer this most important question.

After listening to the US President’s speech, I had to prioritize my doubts.

Here we go:

How does the US support the Free Syrian Army, if you can call it that, and not protect them from Assad?

Who is bombing the FSA?

Islamic State Forces?

No; at least not with Iranian barrel bombs…yes…. The same Iran we are supporting in Iraq!

So, the US and it’s so called Allies, notice the Turks backed out, supply and train a FSA unit.

Supposed this unit defeats a IS force in a given location and the next day, Assad’s forces attack that FSA force?

Does the US respond?

Next:

So and FSA unit that is supplied and trained by the US and it’s Allies is engaged in combat with an Al –Nusra force?

What does the US do?

Were  Al-Nusra forces part of the President’s speech?

Does the West take on the image of fighting only Sunni movements as it supports Shia Persians in Iraq?

Next:

Lebanon?

If Islamic State Forces dissipate into Lebanon, and trust me, dissipating is exactly what they are going to do, then does the US bomb them in Lebanon?

If they operate out of Lebanon, does the US attack them in Lebanon?

Remember, the US President’s words were, “anywhere they exist”!

Next:

Turkey?

An end state of a defeated IS movement and a reinvigorated, armed, PPK / Kurdish state?

Ya…right…

A Turkey who is given absolutely none of the credit for solving the Syrian Crisis?

Ya…. Right…

Next:

Islamic State Forces / movement in Africa?

Nothing recruits better than being the underdog when it comes to a Western Super Power Pounding on a group who shares the same sect of religion or beliefs.

In the move Andromeda Strain… it is discovered that if they blow the virus up, it will only grow stronger!

Next:

Yet another Proxy war?

Yes, this starts with the US President stating this is about IS and it’s horrific acts, but where do our enemies take it?

Where does the Tsar take this event?

Where do the Iranians take it?

One thing about conflict the US President may have overlooked; you enemy gets a vote!

Ok, I could go on and on, but I think my point is made.

Defeating a movement is far more complicated in the 21^st century than planning a conventional war with a conventional enemy / state.

Killing the enemy is one concept.

Killing the movement is a whole different issue.

What is the core of this and any movement like it?

Lack of hope….. the absence of true governance…. No sense of any possible future.

Does this sound like the babble of Progressive Liberals?

Yes.

Is it almost as impossible to achieve as defeating a Ghost like enemy with Air Power?

Yes.

Defeat a “Vison” with a better Vision!

Can it be done?

I know what can’t be accomplished, but I will not answer the core question I started this topic with.

The vision of the GCC to create jobs, industry and education and in the end…..hope….that is the answer for the region.

That takes vision, dedication and sacrifice and in the end it will require “change”.

I know… a word the US is really sick of hearing.

In a matter of days or weeks, the Islamic State Forces will disappear into the shadows of winter.

The weapons will be hidden.

The troops will blend in with a population the West will not openly bomb.

The West will declare victory and pull the mission….. Remember a place called Serbia?

A few months after that, a new group… a new movement will begin to destabilize a region of the world already destabilized.

The new flavor of the day will be upon us and the crisis starts all over again.

Hide to fight another day…… That is what we are up against and that only if our real enemies don’t turn this into something more than a quick media stunt to answer critics.

Remember this... I called the Arab Spring the Tunisian Virus for a reason.

51 DAYS OF GAZA…..SO ….WHO WON?

A simple question today, but one I have held off on for over two weeks now.

How won the 51 day conflict in Gaza; this time around?

To event attempt to find an answer, if there is one, let’s look at what was accomplished on both sides.

Is the gap between Hamas and Fatah / Abbas wider now than before?

Yes.

Remember, this is the same Hamas that attacked Fatah members and took Gaza less than ten years ago.

Did Israel once again have the perception placed upon it that it lacked “resolve”?

Yes and even worse, the perception problems now festers within the Israeli population.

Did Iran gain valuable information on the IDF from the conflict?

Yes.

Did Hamas fully feel the pressure of not being able to move in and out of Gaza from the Sani thanks to Sisi?

Yes.

Is that what Sisi wanted?

Yes.

Was the US / Israeli relationship pushed, once again, to the limits?

Yes.

Was this relationship damaged to the advantage of Iran?

Yes.

Was the infrastructure of Gaza destroyed beyond an even in the past?

Yes.

Will it be repaired anytime soon?

No.

Where the Palestinian people left feeling more divided than ever before?

Yes.

Does that leave their youth vulnerable to new movements; you know who I am referring to here?

Yes.

So, think about it.

Who was the winner here?

Israel?

Hamas?

Fatah?

Abbas?

Sisi?

Iran?

I know my answer, but what is yours?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/hamas-fatah-reconstruction-gaza.html

DID THE PUTIN JUST SAVE “NATO”?

While the Russians are experts at detailed strategic planning, they have had a history of not understanding the concept of Second Order Effects or the Law of Unintended Consequences.

If you ask them or those who have studied their planning philosophies, you will get an argument that they look at these “issues”, but they just don’t weigh them to a level the West would accept.

Side Note: Anyone who argues the West is “good” at this process is a fool!

So, the question becomes; did the Tsar just stumble into a classic example of one of the two processes?

Did he intend to give the NATO partners a legitimate reason to revitalize the concept?

Do the critics of NATO now have reason to become believers again?

Here is my favorite question.

Does the Tsar realize what may have just taken place?

What does he think has caused the announcement of this new NATO “Strike force”?

Last but surly not least; does he care?

In his mind, is this potentially revitalized NATO become anything more than a Paper Tiger?

Does the political “resolve” of those leaders who control NATO change?

Are they truly willing to draw yet another “Red Line” in front of the Tsar?

So, one of two things just took place.

1.  The Tsar inadvertently gave his old arch enemy new life….NATO!
2. He knew full well what he was doing and simply doesn't care!

Did Putin just save NATO?