MALIKI AND THE EVER CONFUSING CARD GAME CALLED THE MIDDLE EAST

Ok, once again, it’s time for a quick sanity check.

Arms to the Kurds…. The Kurds we abandoned at the end of Desert Storm.. Remember?

Arms to the Kurds…. The Enemy of our NATO member ….Turkey… you know… the new Sultans’ base for supporting the Islamic State forces?

Attacks on the Islamic State forces.. You know.. the same forces Assad is fighting to keep Syria…. Supporting Assad???? Yep that’s how some in the region see it!

Supporting the replacement for Maliki.. the Maliki the West supported and takes orders from Iran… ya… that Maliki.

Attacking the Islamic State forces trying to topple Maliki?

Forget getting a scorecard…. Just get a bottle… place it on the table and spin it……

That is the process taking place in the US Department of State right now.

And right in the middle of all of this, Sisi meets with the Tsar!

I can just imagine how that conversation went.

Remember; Maliki’s steam is in Tehran and the link between Moscow and Tehran is far more complex than many realize.

Why would the Tsar want anything to go the way the West would like it right now?

3 Billion in military aid is a strong bait for the Tsar to hang in front of Sisi.

Yes folks………… the backroom card deals are becoming more and more complex and I have to wonder who on the Western team is up to the siting at the table?

Next move….. My bet it belongs to Maliki!

EGYPT AND LEBANON… A MOVE  THAT WILL GO UNNOTICED

With all that is going on in the region right now, it’s easy to miss the fact that Hariri has returned to Lebanon.

It’s just as easy to overlook the strategic importance of this pledge by Egypt to Lebanon.

Let me take a minute and show how these two seemingly unrelated events represent a very important change.

Oh by the way; I’ve come to the realization that one of the fasted growth industries out there right now is the business of standing up “Institutes”.

The Institute for this…. The Organization of that…. The Charter of the Institute for the Organization…and so on….and so on…. And so on……good grief!

If  you have an opinion of the Middle East or any other hot topic on the worldwide media scene, just wait for one of the thousands of “Institutes” to hire you so you can babble on TV!

Ok; back to what I was talking about.

Hariri?

Does anyone remember who he is?

Who was his Father?

Who murdered his Father in a huge car bomb?

What event started the most drawn out United Nations Court Case in the world?

Well, let me keep in simple.

Hariri is hatted by Hezbollah and thus the Persians!

Why?

Simple; he, like his Father, believed and believes in a peaceful Lebanon that is a economic hub for the region.

In Tehran, that is pure heresy, thus they blew up his Father in 2005!

Oh ya, that was the event that lead to Syria’s proxy army, proxy for Iran, being told to leave Lebanon and that was the beginning of the end for the Assad rule!

Why was Hariri out of country for so long?

Ask the Hezbollah killers who have been and are still waiting for the order to kill him.

So, why did he come home now?

Simply put, it’s time!

It’s time for Lebanon to keep from sliding into the abyss of Sectarian War; a war they are on the very edge of being consumed by.

Islamic State forces combat operations last week on Lebanese land was the greatest warning sign yet of the pending disaster awaiting Lebanon.

And what of the Lebanese government’s feelings of him coming home?

Ask yourself one question; who is the President of Lebanon?

Or better yet.

Who is the net President of Lebanon?

Deadlock in the flavor of the day in Lebanon and Politicians almost always move only when they think the timing is right.

Is this the only reason Hariri decided now is the time to return?

Nope!

Ah, then you may ask; “what else”?

Did Hariri wake up late last week and say to himself, “I think I will fly back into Lebanon and see if Hezbollah can finally blow me up”?

Before anyone in the situation that Hariri finds himself in, decides to “move”, one thing must be true.

You must have support!

So, who is Hariri’s support?

Ah yes; the second part of my post today!

Egypt!

As an old retired FBI friend of mine loves to say, “There are no coincidences”

I know, typical of Hoover’s troops!

When Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon made the announcement of “support” to Lebanon, does anyone truly believe Hariri didn’t know this was coming?

Now, take note in what was said by Egypt;  “ All possible Aid”!!!

In a part of the world where reading between the lines is an art, everyone should read that line!

Why would Egypt take this stance the very week Hariri returns to Lebanon?

Was it part of a “Plan”?

You bet!

Who’s in on it?

The West?

Don’t count on that one!

These guys are playing Chess and the West / US / is playing reactionary Checkers!

Back to the “why” of the Egyptian move.

What is important to Egypt about Hariri’s return to Lebanon?

Simply put, what’s in it for Egypt?

What is Hariri at his core value?

A business based leader who believes in the separation of religion and government.

Is he more like Sisi than other potential leaders in Lebanon?

Yes.

Does he have the “name” to win the Presidential elections?

Yes.

Does helping Lebanon remain stable indicate to the world Sisi is a real regional leader?

Yes.

Is Sisi the one that is being counted on to bring the Israeli, Hamas conflict to an end?

Yes; with the caveat that Hamas is destroyed when it’s all over…. From Sisi’s viewpoint!

What is the real threat to Lebanon?

The Islamic State movement?

Who has been able to stop the Islamic state forces?

Nobody.

What will it take to stop them?

A modern military.

Does Egypt have such a thing?

Far better than any other that has gone up against the IS.

Egypt is strapped for cash, so who will help them if needed.

Inter the Saudis!

Ok, in the big scheme of things, what are these two events really all about?

Who wants to be seen as the real “go to” country in the Middle East?

Egypt!

Who is the major competition for this title?

The Ottomans.

The Persians.

In Turkey this week, the election of their next Dictator is underway.

While he is distracted with that event, what better time for Sisi to make his mark on the region?

Everything about international politics revolves around timing!

The time was right for Hariri and the time was right for Sisi.

Let’s see where this goes and let’s watch how it is received by the Persians and the new Sultan of Turkey!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/559566-egypt-ready-to-help-lebanese-army

US STRIKES ON ISLAMIC STATE FORCES…. WHY…WHY NOW.. RESULTS?

Ok, let’s take a look at what is taking place as of today and how it’s all interrelated, or should I say, should be related; oh yes, and the magic word was used, “Genocide”.

US limited strikes on Islamic State units: Christians threatened…. Fill in the perception issue here.

200,00+  Muslims killed in Syria….no action!

Threat of “Genocide” in Libya…US action taken and now look at Libya.

Hamas with virtually no one willing to come to their aid as they wait for the Islamic State forces to win the hearts and minds of the young males in Gaza.

Lebanon has Hariri back in country as the Islamic State forces turn up the heat on Hezbollah in their own backyard.

Turkey quietly backs the Islamic State forces wishing the whole time it will lead to a unorganized Kurdish movement… Yep.. Egodan will not be happy with our attacks on the IS forces……oh ya…. Turkey is a NATO member.

Qatar, a “friend” of the West / US / is accused of supporting the Islamic State forces along with Iran, yet the US attacks the Islamic State forces.

Confused yet?

Let’s add in the Egyptian factor.

Hamas executes a Egyptian Citizen on the accusation he was “spying” on Hamas in Gaza.

Sisi, who hates Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood hears of this execution?????

Maliki sits in Baghdad like Nero only without a fiddle.

The Eye Doctor sits in Damascus smiling as the US now depletes the very units that threaten to hang him from a rope….Oh ya… did the US plan on attacking Assad at one point in time?

And finally, off in the Southeastern corner of Europe sits the Tsar and his military.

When is the right time to destroy the Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine?

Is the world somewhat distracted?

Oh.. I forgot!!!

Ebola!!!

For the most skilled group of true international experts, this list of disasters is truly the greatest challenge in nearly 100 yrs.

For what the West has going for it now, this list is completely overwhelming.

Ah.. and out there in the Dark….. a sound is heard…. A low, deep growl……and then a long and deliberate inhale….you know.. the kind you always heard when you were watching a move about…………… Dragons!!!

THE 72HR CEASE-FIRE… HAMAS’ FATE IS IN SISI’S HANDS!

Is this round of what seems to be endless limited conflicts between Hamas, it’s supporters and Israel ending?

Is there a “deal” in the making?

What is Israel willing to do?

Continue the fight?

Allow Egypt to be the hero by offering a limited crossing into Gaza?

Is Sisi willing to risk allowing a depleted Hamas, a friend of his mortal enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood, a gateway back into the Sani?

What is Hamas truly looking for this time?

Are they willing to walk back into the rubble that is now Gaza and once again take all the building materials for the next round of fighting in two years?

Will the people of Gaza be beat back into submission by the Hamas Thugs who control the streets?

So.

Just what kind of “deal” is being shaped here?

Next question.

Was this 72hr cease fire a ruse?

Was it created to provide the IDF a window of “resupply” and re-missioning for the next phase of the operation?

There has been and always will be tell tail signs of large military units “retooling”.

What condition are the IDF frontline units really in?

Next question.

What is the significance of Musa Abu Marzouk’s statement of, “there is no agreement to extend the 72 hr cease fire”.

Is Hamas and its allies truly ready to bring death raining down on the people of Gaza again?

Final question.

Just how committed is Sisi  to the Israeli plan?

As the 72 hr clock start to wind down, it is clear the fate of Hamas rest in the hands of Sisi.

Someone remind me again; what is Sisi’s opinion of Hamas, arm of the Muslim Brotherhood?

Dear Hamas….

Take a hint and take what you can get….quick!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/Hamas-threatens-to-resume-attacks-370292

THE BATTLE FOR DONETSK…. AND THE OTHER SHOE!

As the attention span of the West shifts away from Gaza, does it not focus in on the battle for Donetsk?

It’s obvious many Western leaders are concerned about the outcome of this conflict, but the question becomes, are their citizens?

If everyone woke up in the morning and learned that Donetsk was right in the middle of a battle that could determine the fate of the Rebels in the Ukraine, would they care?

Here is the problem and it’s not a new one.

The average Joe on the streets of New York or London may not care, but the average Ivan on the streets of Moscow would!

Even worse than that fact is the reality that the average Ivan’s Leader, Putin, is more than concerned.

Is this truly the last leg of the Ukrainian, pro Russian, resistance?

Are the Russian going to allow them to fall?

Are the supporters of the Rebels going to be forced to walk into Russia?

Does the Tsar allow two things to happen?

1. The Pro Russian forces fall to the new Ukrainian government.
2. The economic punishment Russia has had placed upon it is rewarded with the destruction of the “resistance”?

Once again the stories of Russian forces moving towards the border with Ukraine.

Once again the new articles depicting the latest group of Russian Military Exercises” hit the airwaves.

So, that’s it?

The Tsar plan goes up in smoke?

The border of Russia breadbasket is now in European hands?

The core of the Russian military industrial complex no longer belongs to the Tsar?

I’ve never been an optimist and I try not to be a pessimist.

A realist!

That is what I strive to be and it’s for that reason I sit here tonight waiting for the other shoe to drop….the Tsar’s shoe! 

ISRAEL AND THE MODERN-DAY SLEEPWALKERS!

A question often asked, but a question that needs answering now more than ever.

In the 60’s, the West was ready and willing to go to War, even nuclear war over the survival of Israel and the world knew it.

It’s 2014 and the world has changed in ways many of us struggle to understand even parts of that statement.

So, how bad has it become the US and Israel?

How far is a progressive, liberal President willing to push this crisis?

Behind closed doors, what do these two men think of each other?

Well, we got a sneak peak at the US President’s opinion only a few years ago and that slip may have set this whole process into motion.

Before I go too far down the road of how bad this relationship has become, let me take a few minutes to explain what the results could lead to.

Imagine an Israel that truly wakes up to the realization their relationship with the US may be forever damaged?

An Israel with a Europe that looks down its collective nose toward them and a US government that gives them the same perception the US has given the Gulf States?

What is a truly desperate Israel capable of?

A writer by the name of Christopher Clark wrote a book called, “ The Sleepwalkers: How Europe went into War in 1914”.

Can history repeat itself?

Can the West, guided by a rudderless US Foreign Policy, become the 21^st Century version of the “Sleepwalkers”?

The repercussions of that series of events and poor leadership gave the world  World War One.

A war that was 100 yrs ago this month.

Let Israel truly believe they are alone in the sea of violence called the Middle East and we will see history come back to haunt the world, only this time, it will be in color and live!

Yes… The Sleepwalkers are back and the risk is growing.

Less I remind everyone… Israel may not always have the ability to insure its survival, but it does have the ability to insure none of its enemies live to see victory.

THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES AND THE KURDS… A FALLOW UP!!!

A few weeks ago, I addressed the criticality of Islamic State force fighting the Kurds.

(Link provided).

 http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2014/07/the-islamic-statesbattle-with-kurdswho.html

My point was simple, if the IS forces could take on a fighting force as respected as the Kurds, what chance did the Iraqi military have?

Well, the conflict over the town of Sinjar may have proven my point.

Now, I know some will say, “ the Kurds will regroup and move back in”, and that could take place, but I would also state the damage is done.

Imagine the Iraqi forces and their commander watching this battle take place all the while knowing how skilled the Kurds are in the art of fighting.

When the dust settles, the Kurds retreat and the black flag of the IS flies over the town of Sinjar!

Disconcerting?

To say the least; just ask the Iraqi military leaders.

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan admission is even more demoralizing to the Iraqi leaders.

With the world’s eyes focused on Gaza, the gains of the IS in Iraq is going virtually unnoticed, with the exception of Baghdad and Tehran.

The flow of forces and supplies from Syria to Iraq and Iraq to Syria is only growing stronger as Iraqi leadership desperately tries to map out a course of action that shows any signs of working.

So, is anyone seeing this Kurdish defeat, even if it is temporary, as a good sign?

Yep!

You probably guessed it.

Turkey!

The Turkish viewpoint is not difficult to figure out.

A Kurdistan movement that is under attack by Islamic Forces is a movement on the defense and a Kurdish movement on the defense is a smaller threat to Turkey.

Yep; when you get right down to it, not much has changed.

What truly is on the minds of the Middle Eastern leaders today?

The survival of Hamas?

The growing Islamic State movement?

I bet we all know the real answer and so does Hamas.