NORTH KOREA AND CHINA.. AN UPDATE TO MY "THEORY"

Back in September of 2012, actually several times before that, I posed a "what if" question.

As the events of the past few months have continued to unfold, I thought now might be a good time to update my "what if" question!

Now, I know the probability formulary is the most important factor when we consider a " what if" question given that determines just how much time and energy should be put into figuring out the 'what if"!!!!

But, as I stated back in September, let's just play the game without the weighted category of probability.

Ok, let's get started....

Lets say for the sake of argument the Chinese are really fedup with dealing with the whole North Korea / South Korea issue.

Lets say the Chinese have come to the conclusion if the Korean Peninsula issue was "off the table / dealt with/ the excuse for the Western Military presence in that part of the Pasific would be much harder to defend in the court of world opinion.

Lets assume the Chinese feel as if they can no longer dictate the actions of North Korea and the added tensions over territorial control for the whole region was more important to them than wasting time and energy on a topic that seems hopeless.

Simply put, "what if" China just basically said, " so what.... what does it matter" or "We give up....Inshallah" or the Chinese version of this... given they are a Godless Country!!!

What if their frustration over the whole China Sea issue put them in a position of letting North Korea go its own destructive way?

Remember, we are leaving the " probability" part of this question out.... yes I know the whole theory of China not wanting millions of starving North Koreans walking into China.... lets just drive on for a minute.

Ok, so let's assume China sees the events in Mali and Lybia as just a smoke screen for the West to block further advancements by China in the mineral rich lands  of Africa...

Let's assume we have a China that is becoming more and more concerned with social stability to the point of paranoia.

So, let's see.... we have Territorial rights issues ////// "containment" issues/// Social issues and a crazy neighbor that is the main reason your adversary uses as an excuse to keep a formidable military at your doorstep.

Gee... China is just gong to ignore all these issues right.. for the sake of selling cheap toys to the West????

Before we move on, read the link below. Oh.. by the way... "The Global Times" is all but run by the Chinese Government. read on!!!

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/758130.shtml

Ok, back to the September 2012 point I made...

Lets assume China knows full well our capability to deal with North Korea and Iran simultaneously is a feat that would drive the Western economy into the ditch.

Let's assume a nation of people who plan events based on fifty years or more weighs all the issues listed above and decides the damage / recovery from a simultaneous conflict... one they could stay out of all together.. is worth the risk..

Let's cut to the chase now.

If China decides to counter the West's effort to " contain" China how might they do that?

Could it involve a crazy neighbor they have all but given up on, or is it time to use that crazy neighbor to your advantage.....finally?

Could China instigate an event with Iran.... I hope we all believe the answer here!!!

2013 is not a year where we can afford to fixate on one issue such as Iran... Arab Springs... Islamic Fundamentalist in Africa...

Eyes wide open!!!

All options on the table.. and my most favorite line from " The Untouchables".. What are you prepared to do about it"?????

I hope we are there!!!

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/09/a-theory-at-beginning-of-this-year-i.html

THE FLAG THAT IRAN FEARS!!!

Stop executing Arab activist??? What???

How could that be?

I thought Iran was the "Brother" of the  Arabs?

So, why do they hang them for simply being Arabs in Iran?

Oh... that's right... The Iranians are PERSIANS... not Arabs!!!

So, London based Amnesty International has to make a plea for these five Arabs in Iran?

Where is the outcry here?

Where is the great Arab leader... Mr Morsi???

Better yet... where is Hezbollah.... ARAB Hezbollah????

Well, you see... everyone over there knows what most in the West consistently seem to forget.... Persians are scared to death of Arabs and besides.. they are low class scum compared to the superior Persian race!!!

We all think it's Israel that keeps the Iranian leadership up all night.

Would you like to believe the Persians are just as worried about the growing Arab population / Sunni movement in Iran?

You bet they are and hanging five of them at a time for just be Arab is not going to stop the demographics changes taking place in Iran.

So, when you hear about the GCC leaders fretting over the Iranian "menace", do you really believe that is based upon the Shia / Sunni / divide?

Events like these are like manta from Heaven to the West, if and only if we have the intelligence and never to play this correctly.

News story number one should be, " Iranian / Persians / continue to persecute the poor underprivileged Arabs in Iran.

The fact that a extremely liberal organization such as Amnesty International is leading the charge is even better.

How in the world can the rest of the region possibly link this group with the evil doings of the "West"?

Most of the time Amnesty International is breathing down a Western Nations back, not climbing into their pockets!

Ok..... Get the picture here????

Iran's actions provide the rest of the region the golden opportunity to create unrest in Iran.

Don't tell me we have no need to do so given we have "sanctions" working well.

Everyone knows the sanctions on Iran are hurting those who have nothing to do with running the government / nuclear programs!!!

What they are doing is making the current dictator more and more nervous about social unrest.. the true goal of the sanctions!

Well, why use sanctions to do that?

Why not paint a picture of a group of bigots who look down their noses at Arabs and hanging them for just talking about being Arab?

 Exploitation of the Persian elitist cannot be overlooked and this opportunity should not be allowed to pass the world by.

Actually, it's a twofer.... Pound the Persians... thereby creating a credibility gap between them and the Arabs / regardless of Sunni / Shia affiliation and put the pressure on the "sellout" Arabs.... Hezbollah!!!!

Hezbollah.... letting Arabs go under the Persian sword for the sake of their self-interest!!

Oh ya... Where is the great Al Jazerra press on this story?????

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=300894

JORDAN. BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE.. STILL!!!

Well, its no mystery that Jordan has been under the gun of the Muslim Brotherhood for sometime now, but today could easily have been a new chapter in the struggle for the current government.

At this point in time, it really doesn't matter what the King did to show some level of appeasement, for you see the Muslim Brotherhood smells blood in the water and finding a "middle ground" is not what they are looking for.

As I stated months ago, the King is not without his supporters to include the West... namely the GCC nations; they've even talked of allowing Jordan to join the GCC.

Is the economy the issue in Jordan?

Yes?

Is the issue of more social freedoms and issue in Jordan?

To some extent, yes!!!

Is this what the Muslim Brotherhood is out to change?

NO, although once again... that is the series of excuses they are utilizing.

Although I've not heard it...yet.... I can just imagine what the party line will be from the MB.

"We are not wishing to gain power in Jordan... we just want to insure the rights of all citizens in Jordan"......

We have heard that storyline before???? Egypt!!!!

To the Brotherhood it's always about power, and the passive path to gaining it.

Does Jordan have leadership issues?

Yes... who doesn't?

You can rest assured of one simple fact... the MB is out for the sake of the MB in Jordan and nothing else!!!

The sturgle for control of Jordan will be far more complex than the others and the MB knows it.

The King has two huge advantages... the GCC's money and his maturity.

Getting the King into a position to overreact to the actions of his own people will not be an easy task.

He is far more clever that many give him credit for.

If I know Jordan, the game plan could very well be to create "problems" for the MB in Egypt and to do so to a level they could easily be distracted.

Don't count out his actions in the Syrian events as well.

He completely understands the MB goals there as well, and keeping them off balance will be priority number one for him.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/201312312157574452.html

SO.. ARE THE RUSSIANS REALLY PULLING OUT?

Well, all the buzz today was the story of the Russian pulling citizens out of Syria through Lebanon and the Russians categorically denying they were doing so!

Ok, what is really going on?

First off, lets look at who is leaving?

Is it just one group or Russian citizens in general?

If we follow that thought chain, the next question becomes, " why now"?

Are the Russian really anticipating the fall of Assad?

Russia, like most governments, will surly have contingency plans for getting their people out of Syria and perhaps this is truly the fist wave based on the highest threat category.

If there is a sense of urgency with the Russians,  then why?

The common statement is they realize Assad is losing power and doing so quickly.

Well....maybe!!!

One way or another the Russian must think things are about to get worse and so some phase of evacuation has been approved.

Now, reports state there up to 30k Russians in Syria; a number I find incredible unless you look at the weather of Russia and realize how many folks may have moved to Syria just to avoid the Russian winters.

One thing is for sure; the concept of moving everyone one out by airlift from Lebanon is not going to work for 30K people.

My bet is the Russians are not even close to giving up on Assad given the obvious reluctance of the rest of the world to give little more than lip service to the Rebels.

Yes, some are doing more than that, but none are accomplishing the level of support Iran and Russia continue to send.

If Russia decides to really get their citizens out of Syria, you will see far more than two aircraft landing in Lebanon!!!!!

What are they doing?

Well.. we will have to wait to see!!!!

Russia does nothing without the Tsar's approval!!!

\http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-23/203418-russian-evacuation-signals-doubts-about-assad-expe.ashx#axzz2IkoP6Erf

MALI AND ALGERIA... WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON?

For the past several days I have avoided the conversation of Mali and the events in Algeria..

But, now that some of the more important facts about the Gas plan attack have worked their way out, now might be a good time to talk about both topics.

fist off, most of the common folks in the world are stilled more than puzled as to why the French decided to intervene in Mali.

Yes, true there was a UNSC vote on actions for the region, but that doesn't explain the speed at witch France jumped in with both feet; something that is going to prove march harder to sell as time goes on.

I've read and heard a wide range of "reasons" the French government took the actions they did and some of them are not even worth covering.

One aspect of this action still has me a little more than puzzled; the French Military Command!!

Now, it's more than likely the French leadership have given their military more than ample warning of their intent to launch into the quagmire that is known as Central Africa, but the hast that they did so.... well.. I have a hard time believing their Military condoned that part of the concept.

The classic question became the first one that was asked by many, such as me!

"What is the end state"????

What was France looking to do?

Rid Central Africa of Islamic Fundamentalist?

Well, they and others should have thought of that before they allowed the entire weapons inventory of Libya to be hauled off by anyone with a pickup truck!!!

As of this morning, the storyline out of France continues to be their desire to rid Northern Mali of the AQ backed organizations!!!

In reality both these goals are about the same on the lunacy  scale!!!!

Ok, for the sake of time, let me cut to the chase!!

For the life of me, and many like me, I can't understand what France's leadership was thinking and we are probably only a week or two away from the French people really starting to push the issue!

One event was bound to happen and it only took two days for it to show up.

The age old saying of, " The Enemy of my Enemy" became the battle cry of all four groups the French are up against; oh ya.. good luck my French friends with the "crack" Troops who are coming to work along side you in Mali... ragtag units from third world ragtag militaries... I've been down that road before!!!!

Ok, lets not waste anymore time wondering why this fiasco has taken place in Mali.

Let's spend a few minutes hitting the "big picture" issues of what this newly formed crisis could mean to the rest of us, much less France!!

As I said early, the fall of Libya is the root cause of the disaster that is now called Central Africa... as if Central Africa was not already a big enough disaster!!

Here is another part of that statement that needs to be repeated..... UN and the rest of us have a big part of the blame based on the outcome of Libya....

I was never sure what " vision" the West had for post Libya and it's clear that lack of vision was just one example of a series of visionless events!

Ok, enough of the Monday Morning Quarterbacking.... back to what this could mean to us.

Mali will not have a definitive event to mark the success or failure of France's blunder!

France will run out of public support and money much faster than it will run off multiple battle hardened Rebel groups!

France will also be hard pressed to find "willing" partners from any non Third Word Countries....

The cost of yet another " operation" with the Middle East still in the center of a full blown crisis, is not going to be well received by the West or the UN.

As is always the case, the UN is fast to vote but slow to move and the French somehow forgot this!!

Here comes the really important topic and it's one that just showed it's ugly head in Algeria this week.

Will the actions of yet another old Colonial power / France / have repercussions and will it cause unification of groups?

I think you already know the answer to that question Mr Obvious!!!

What did " we" do and why did we do it??

Really good questions that nobody is going to answer anytime soon!!!!

Where is this all going?

Another excellent question that nobody and I mean nobody has the answer for!!

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21127646

IRANIAN "REDLINES" NOTHING NEW HERE!!

Okay, the fact that Khamenei has apparently made it clear once again their feelings towards the current government of Syria is nothing new.

As is the case when most political statements are made, the question becomes what was said but when it was said and more importantly what was the true audience for the message?

No one understands the current condition of Assad in Syria better than the Iranians!

Once knowledge this fact, we may begin to have our answer as to the timing of this statement.

Another interesting feature of this announcement was the typical, "the message within the message"!!!!

For the Iranians to once again speak to the issue of the concerns and the rights of the Syrian people can only have one of two meanings.

One, the process of appeasement while not actually bending on any issue is most likely a goal of Iran.

Secondly, hinting to others that Iran is willing to see someone other than Assad in power is also most likely a goal of the Iranians.

Both of these "messages" have very limited scope and even more limited room for maneuver in the eyes of the Iranians.

It might be that perhaps time to time the Iranians almost on a calendar schedule feel compelled make statements and compromising manner, but inserting the verbiage of "red lines" is also a message that cannot be lost.

Now, true journalism something Iran knows nothing about, which sparked a question of repercussions of crossing Iranian redlines.

If Khamenei is going to play statements into the world press about "red lines", and someone is surely to ask, "if crossed what are you willing to do about it"?

So, the timing and theme of this announcement, as is always the case of Iran, is suspect!

Was this a another example of "a gentle reminder" or has Khamenei decided to start a new phase within the Syrian crisis?

Some of the eternal optimist might see this comment is yet another example of "an opportunity"!

My gut tells me, once again the optimist will be slapped into reality! 

A THIRD INTIFADA???? WHAT WOULD IT MEAN THIS TIME AROUND?

It's undeniable that the rumor mill of a possible third Intifada is becoming more and  more prevalent throughout the region.

If we put aside trying to figure out just how possible this could be an concentrate on it was to happen what would it mean, there are some interesting changes since the second event almost 12 years ago.

Here are a few interesting issues that need to be considered as anyone anticipates a future event.

The physical barriers that have been placed by the Israeli government will make the infiltration of suicide bombers much more difficult to accomplish; but creativeness is a trait of the Palestinians!

Creating chaos outside of these barriers may not have the same impact as they would inside the major towns and cities but given the 24 seven 365 day year news coverage and the overwhelming increase of social media since the last Intifada the impact might be psychologically just as severe as in the past.

On the topic of the relationship, or the lack thereof, between Hamas and Fatah it will be interesting to see who would win the public relations contest between the two with the Palestinian people.

The idea that Hamas and Fatah would jointly execute a third Intifada is simply not realistic, at least not at this time!

Interesting enough, I would anticipate both groups would struggle with maintaining control of a modern day/social media driven Intifada.

The theory that such an event could spin out of control there by  limiting the influence of both Hamas and Fatah is more than realistic.

Egypt would be another interesting part of a third Intifada this time around!

How would the Muslim brotherhood / Mr Morsi leverage such an event?

With the Egyptian government even support such an uprising in the near future?

Remembering that the Muslim brotherhood seems to have a "master plan" for their operations in the region would they condone a Palestinian driven uprising just now?

How about the Iranians?

What would be their role/influence/reaction to a third Intifada?

Like the Egyptians, is this something they would support right now or would it do them more harm than good and quite honestly could they impact events is this taking place one way or the other?

And what about Syria?

Would Assad see such event as "Manta from Heaven"?

The distraction value would be priceless from Assad's viewpoint.

His problem is, he's lost virtually all influence with any Palestinian group and although he may profit by such an event the danger would be any repercussions would be uncontrollable by the Syrian government.

Simply put, Syria would be along for the ride one way or the other.

Next, Lebanon?

 We cannot mention the repercussions for Lebanon, without factoring in ever imposing Hezbollah!

 The fallout of a third Intifada for Lebanon would be extremely dangerous at a minimum.

I'm quite confident that the weight of the Syrian crisis stacked with the weight of the third Intifada in the region would be far more than the fragile Lebanese government could withstand.

Now, for the most interesting topic   from my viewpoint.

What would be the role of the "Dayton Battalions"?

An interesting concept that I've never been confident the correct move.

In my opinion, these units were developed with the support of the US and others for the sole purpose of countering Hamas and the attempted takeover of the West Bank.

Yes, it is true these units on a day-to-day basis work well with Israeli forces, as well as can be expected.

But, in open conflict, predominantly in the West Bank, where would the loyalties of these young Palestinian paramilitary police come down?

How embarrassing would it be to see the IDF having to engage and destroy units that were vetted by the Israelis and trained by the US in Jordan?

Well, it's easy to figure out they third Intifada will most likely be nothing like the first or the second.

Times of changed, alliances have changed, capabilities had changed and this is all placed into an environment that is already on a regional crisis stage.

Predicting actions and impacts of the third Intifada based upon the history of the previous two would be a drastic mistake for all parties.

So, the rumors of a possible third event seem to percolate with each passing day, but who would support it, how would it be supported, how would it execute and most importantly how would it spread; these are the real issues!

Never fight the next battle based upon the last battle!

I can think of no better advice for all parties involved.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/01/security-sources-a-third-intifad.html