SO.. DOES ANYONE REALLY PLAY BY THE RULES?? 

Now, everyone knows in the world of international politics, there are no real rules!

In the world of politics and governments it's not called breaking the rules or law unless it has an advantage to the one making the accusation.  

So, when one reads a story about gold being sent Iran from Turkey through the United Arab Emirates is that considered breaking the rules of agreed-upon sanctions?

It's common knowledge that several nations are currently allowed, "waiver status", on the issue of Iranian oil.

The concept that the Turkish government would be in negative growth or even economic trouble without this gold exchange with the Iranians is most likely the top cover story for allowing it to take place.

But, as is always the case, the rest of the world perceives the inconsistent rules of engagement for sanctions are an open invitation to ignore the rules themselves.

Simply put, it's the age-old saying of, "what's good for the goose is good for the gander"!

Now, it might also be that the world realizes that completely successful sanctions on the Iranians could easily push them over there acceptable limits and force them into possibly taking drastic actions to counter such sanctions.

I have no doubt this was part of the formulary that was developed for the Iranian sanctions along with ensuring that several of our critical partners are not too drastically impacted by those same sanctions.

You have to wonder how other leaders, namely the Tsar, interpret these inconsistent actions.

No one should be surprised that as emotional and dangerous as the Syrian situation may be the rest of the world must continue on with business as usual.

Sanctions are typically agreed-upon as long as they do not severely impact the nations that are being asked to support.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-09/201556-turkey-holds-plane-en-route-to-iran.ashx#axzz2HJ58ySp2

KHAMENEI STARTS TO SWEAT!!!!

It's simply amazing how sometimes statements made by other governments can sound so ludicrous to the rest of us.

I often have to remind myself that the Iranian government typically bases its press announcements upon shaping the opinions of the Iranian people and not an outside audience.

For Khamenei to warn his own people over the perils of speaking out against their own elections is an indication of just how worried he really is.

The internal conflict between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei's followers is most likely the driving force behind this statement.

Yet, he was clever enough not to name Ahmadinejad personally or his followers or the concept it now appears Ahmadinejad is developing; appealing the Iranian population.

Ahmadinejad's vision of who should replace him is 180° out from that of Khamenei's.

It appears that Khamenei is concerned Ahmadinejad is becoming more  and more successful in his public perception campaign of blaming, indirectly, Khamenei's government for the Iranian people's hardships.

Khamenei stands no chance of not allowing moderates to at least attempt to run in the next election if Ahmadinejad is even partially successful in his public information campaign.

Now, Khamenei knows he must be careful in accusing are naming Ahmadinejad are other moderates, and the title of moderate is not what I would give to Ahmadinejad, and because of that it appears he has wrapped this latest threat once again around, "the evil West"!

As the sanctions and other economic measures continue to make life ever more unbearable for the common Iranian citizen, it's going to become increasingly difficult for Khamenei to simply pass the blame down the ladder or own the, "infidels"!

My fear is this.

If Khamenei and his followers begin to realize that the pending elections could prove to be a challenge to his power, and simply warning the public not to speak ill of the election process will not be enough.

The big picture for Iran is becoming clearer with each passing day.

Life is getting more difficult in the future looks dim!

Those are two very difficult campaign pillars to try and win a non confrontational election with.

Khamenei knows he is facing real and near-term dangers!

His options are limited in full of risk!

We need to pay careful attention to statements made by Khamenei and his followers look closely at what is implied are not said and not just that the words spoken!

 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-08/201366-khamenei-tells-iranians-criticizing-election-will-help-enemies.ashx#axzz2HJ58ySp2

SANCTIONS AND IRAN........ A TOPIC REVISITED..

In the past, I have been mentioned the curiosity level some have over the concept of sanctions, specifically it comes to Iran.

Now, it's common knowledge the typical sanctions typically keep nations from acquiring items other nations have convinced the free world they should keep from them.

The question is not over the prevention of acquisition, but the concept of punishment.

In a perfect world punishing a government by restricting their ability to provide for its citizens is an option often chosen other than open conflict.

The trouble arises when the sanctions are applied against the government is not overly concerned as to the day-to-day welfare of the citizens.

In the case of Iran, the Iranian leadership is well aware of the fact that a disgruntled public, at this point in time, is a dangerous and slippery path into becoming yet another nation in the Middle East in crisis.

So, the question becomes is the concept of sanctions against Iranian government as a punishment tool going to work and if so what is the definition of, "work"!

If 80% of Iran's economy is based upon the oil industry and Iran has seen nearly 50% drop in that industry does that equate into the people of Iran rising up against the Iranian government?

Is it a given fact that the Iranian people will blame the Iranian government for the austere environment brought on by the sanctions or can they be convinced that the sanctions of the actions of nations unwilling to see Iran become successful?

I've said this before and I will say it again; we need to be very careful of what we, "wish for"!

I have no doubt the Iranian government, the true Iranian leadership, will do its level best to blame Ahmadinejad for the worsening economic conditions.

Ahmadinejad is a safe target and even worse and unlike target of the true Iranian leadership.

The question becomes, as I stated last week, does Ahmadinejad allow the blame to be placed upon his shoulders?

Well, it's easy to see the two issues go hand-in-hand.

As reports continued to grow about the impact of sanctions on the Iranian government simultaneously as reports continued to grow about the conflict inside the Iranian government, does this all process drive towards ending someone has actually contemplated?

As times get harder for the Iranian people and international affairs around the Iranian government become direr, is this all leading to a desirable ending?

Sanctions stacked on top of internal personality and ideological differences inside the Iranian government; was that or is that the plan?

Desperate nations, leaders, have historically taken desperate and often drastic actions to prevent their demise!

Wrecking the Iranian oil industry; does that answer the Iranian nuclear weapons issue?

Solving problems at the international nationstate level is never easy and I'm fairly convinced sanctions on Iran provide no simple answers.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=298719

OK... WHAT IS THE TSAR UP TO NOW?

The buildup of Russian warships in the cease of the coast of Syria is nothing new.

Most perceive these actions are nothing more in the Russian government preparing to evacuate their citizens from Syria.

Having said that, a few well-placed comments here and there by Russian leaders can go a long way toward stirring the conspiracy theorist.

On Numerous occasions I have mentioned simple fact the Tsar sees Mort statement with Syria in just the Assad regime.

So, could the gathering of the ships and the, "exercise", be more about international politics in simple evacuation planning events?

The easy answer is, the actions of the Russians have multiple meanings and purposes as is the truth whenever major countries openly display their military might.

Assad's somewhat bold speech today was undoubtedly a byproduct of the Russian naval news.

You can be confident Assad's positioning in this speech was based upon the far more communications then just seeing Russian naval ships off of his coastline.

Last week allowed to talk about it around the potential of the Russians finally conceding on the issue of Assad's future.

Anyone takes public statements by the Russian government could face value, simply does not understand how the country works.

So, are the Russians hardening their stance on the Syrian issue or is this just another stage in the process of bringing the Syrian crisis to culmination?

The Russians truly positioning their Navy block ground operations or any other operations by the West in Syria?

I don't think anyone in the Department of Defense in the United States or in Europe believes this to be true.

Strategically speaking, Syria is nowhere near the level of importance that would have Russia taking such bold actions.

So, the reality is the Russians have most likely pre-positioned there evacuation force and in the meantime perhaps added a few additional ships and a few Carefully chosen words to give this operation a, "twofer"!!!

Assad and his followers understand implicitly the presence of a few Russian naval ships will not save his government from the rebel force  that now seems to be gaining advantages of all levels.

Somewhere in the middle of this Russian/Syrian exchange the true key player/partner has been overlooked.

The Iranians!

With so many formidable warships in the region it would not surprise me in the least to see the Iranians step off the front porch and beat their chest like a miniature bully knowing full well that their big brother is nearby.

Assad solved nothing today with his speech and he and his government know it!

As a side note, although Assad counts the Iraqi government in the friend column, increasing tensions inside of this, "friend", has to be seen as yet another distraction Assad desperately needs.

The Russian Navy issue will not be the news the week for the region.

The growing hostilities in Iraq, that is the news to pay attention to in the near future.

You can bet is news item number one for the Iranians!!

http://www.debka.com/article/22663/Bolstered-by-16-Russian-warships-Assad-nixes-dialogue-with-%E2%80%9CWestern-puppets%E2%80%9D

HAMAS AND FATAH.. .THE LOVE FEST???? NOT!!!!

So, Hamas and Fatah are turning into one big happy family?

I am one of many who are more than skeptical.

If anyone truly believes that Hamas and Fatah are willing to concede power to each other some mutual level of a working partnership, then we are probably going to need to see more than just a few simple parades in the West Bank and in Gaza.

Memories fuel emotions in the Middle East and the memories of Hamas gunning down Fatah members in Gaza in 2007 still burn deep in the hearts and minds of those families that were involved.

More importantly, allowing Fatah clan members even become close to having an influence over the lucrative tunnel business in Gaza is a concept I simply cannot support.

The Hamas, Gaza is about making money and that money is made by not all members of Hamas but the chosen few.

These chosen few have no intention of sharing the wealth of the tunnel business with members of Fatah are other rival families, clans from the West Bank.

In my opinion, the parading of each other's flags on the other teams territory is truly a message of brinksmanship!

Can members of the tile walked the streets of Gaza without being fired upon, harassed or screened at?

Today's events at face value would make most people believe that the Palestinian Authority could possibly be making headway towards unification.

I can guarantee you that many knowledgeable people in the region no better.

I would be willing to bet the Israeli government knows better!

Would it make the Muslim brotherhood happy to have such unification take place?

Obviously, the answer is yes.

Is it advantageous to Hamas or two Fatah?

Well, that depends on who you ask.

You see, causes are emotional worthy thing, but money almost always wins over the day.

Gaza, is about money and Hamas is about money and power.

Simply put, I wouldn't put a lot of stock based upon parades and young teenagers waving flags.

Walk into any streetside coffee shop at 2 o'clock in the morning in Gaza or the West Bank and look for the middle-aged or elderly men sitting in a group discussing the events of the day.

Listen to see if you have been talking about the joys of unification of Fatah and Hamas!

If you can find such a conversation I would recommend that you recorded or even YouTube it because that would be far more proof that people like me in stage parades and brand-new colorful flags.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/201314101730389728.html

http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/west-bank-turns-green-as-hamas-stages-its-first-rally-in-five-years

HMM.... IS AHMADINEJAD READING MY BLOG?????

One more than one occasion I have spoken to the issue of Ahmadinejad choosing the path of siding with, "the people", as he battles for his survival!

As a matter of fact, in the summer of 2011 even speculated on how Ahmadinejad might attempt such a plan.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/ahmadinejad-and-mashaei-still-under.html

At the time it only seemed logical or at least plausible that that he would attempt to positions himself as more in line with the citizens of Iran than  with an ever more unpopular government. " I represent the common man"!!! That was my speculative battle cry he might try to develop.

If Ahmadinejad is truly giving speeches and painting a picture of the people who are being treated with, "inequality", then as the  Debka   reports states, a confrontation with Khamenei may not be far off.

Although Ahmadinejad is only six months left his position; his vision, and ego, will be hard to suppress.

As I speculated back in 2011 Ahmadinejad may very well see the pending, "Arab spring\Tunisian virus", on the doorsteps of Iran; over he may be even promoting it's arrival!!!!

As I stated then, it may very well be that he is attempting to get out in front of public sentiment as he realizes, as well as the rest of Iranian government, how hard the sanctions will continue to impact the Iranian people.

The fact that his adversaries in his government have plotted to blame all the economic woes with Iran on him may have very well have  given him the idea of how to turn the tables on the followers of Khamenei.

This on-again off-again, confrontational environment between Ahmadinejad and the followers of Khamenei seems to be taking a new direction and it's a direction the leadership of the GCC and Israel will most likely welcome with open arms.

Observing the Iranian leadership struggle internally on face value may seem to be a, "a good idea", but we can never forget the classic example of governments in trouble, especially internal trouble, doing everything possible to deflect and distract from that struggle.

An open confrontation between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei is a disaster in the making for the Iranian leadership and they both know it.

The difference may very well be, Ahmadinejad has a plan and is even thought this plan through with  some level of fidelity.

Khamenei on the other hand has struggled to keep his confrontation with Ahmadinejad limited an out of the media.

That may have changed now that Ahmadinejad apparently seems to be willing to make press statements condemning the current, "leadership", around and more importantly above him.

I must admit, I was surprised I began to read about this new and unfortunately dangerous phase of Iranian politics.

As a began to read the Debka article, I couldn't help but wonder if perhaps Ahmadinejad and read what my old post :-)

Where can this potential internal conflict and Iranian leadership beheading?

It appears it is time to readdress this issue and I will do so soon.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/02/ahmadinejad-and-khamenei-clash-again.html

2012 / 2012 MIDDLE EAST WRAP UP: PREDICTIONS

For the past several days I have reviewed what I believe will continue to be the major issues for the Middle East.

These "issues" are complex and have very little chance of finding a political, "fix"

As I stated last week, the major problem confronting the region in 2013 will be based upon conflicting interest by several outside nation states.

It has become more than obvious the Tsar  has determined international "issues" will have Russian input to the fullest extent possible.

The days of the " Old Soviet Union" rebuilding never took place.

What emerged was the new Nationalistic Russia with a hardcore, aggressive leader!

Now, this new Russia is based on worldwide demand for fuels and that makes the Middle East and the region around it nearly the Center of Gravity for Russia.

Now, the leaders of the Middle have long understood the value of their lands to the rest of the world, but two major changes have taken place and these changes are making it virtually impossible for regional leaders to keep the world as they use to have it.

The first major change is the reality of the world become far more efficient at finding fuel in areas other than the Middle East.

The simple fact that oil empires of the Middle East for the first time have competitors throughout the world not just in one or two additional locations has brought the concept of competition to the doorsteps of the GCC.

Having the world, "kiss the ring", has been a mindset with many of these leaders for decades.

Now, I realize the counterargument is always been and will remain world only cares about the oil and not the people in the region and not sure I can argue this point.

 You see the concept of nations that conduct themselves according to what is good or important for other nations and societies are very seldom world leaders.

At the risk of being politically incorrect, it is appropriate to admit that a  nation's primary interest must always be the protection and the betterment of themselves.

Having said that, enduring relationship in the Middle East between the rest of the world and those that suddenly discovered there were sitting on some of the largest fuel deposits are found has been precarious at best.

Now, with the introduction of what I consider the second issue, it becomes clear to see what our true problem is.

Instantaneous, virtually uncontrollable, communications down to the lowest/poorest/level of society; that is the second issue that has overwhelmed the Middle East.

Ruthless leaders both recognized and ignored have found it nearly impossible to suppress or fool their citizens into day-to-day peaceful existence.

Extreme wealth stacked upon extremely poor governance layered with complex social imbalances both economic and religious as combined to create an environment in the Middle East that none of the current governments can manage.

It is also become very apparent to the rest of the world, those who strive from within these challenged nations to, "set things right", do not have the tools nor the experience and most importantly  the allegiance  to each other carryout this daunting task

Some not most in the region and smell true freedom after decades if not millennia of suppression.

The rush to, "freedom", and all chaos that ensued is the result of all parties involved, not just the ruthless governments suppressing them when the youthful members in the streets of the religious fanatics trying desperately to take advantage of the chaos.

I can't count how many times I've heard the comment, "a comprehensive regional plan", for the Middle East.

One typically only hears this type of talk during election or at some societal functional event with black ties and champagne glasses.

In 2013, the world does not have, "a plan", for the region known as the Middle East we can anticipate further problems on larger scale and unfortunately more disastrous results.

The, "mothership", of the region's Saudi!

As the government of Saudi tries desperately to keep the regional issues outside of its capital even at the price of conflict is Eastern territories, territories that hold most of Saudi soil, the world will struggle with ignoring her chastising or worse yet endorsing pending actions of the Saudi government.

When a government is in trouble, a government needs to recognize enemy!

The 2013 issue in the Middle East may or may not be Israel and Iran.

The 2013 issue in the Middle East will most likely be continued sectarian conflict, which is actually a proxy conflict between the GCC nations and Iran, and this conflict has all the tools all the fuels grow larger and more dangerous.

If the Israelis truly believe the Iranians are not close to functional nuclear weapon, forget about nuclear tipped missiles, then allowing the region to continue in the Arab versus Persian\Sunni\Shia\proxy fight might just will be acceptable answer.

From the perspective of the rest of us, without a unified plan will be no resolution in the region.

Unified plan is virtually impossible is old enemies once again begin to struggle over their prominence in the world.