2012 / 2012 MIDDLE EAST WRAP UP: PREDICTIONS

For the past several days I have reviewed what I believe will continue to be the major issues for the Middle East.

These "issues" are complex and have very little chance of finding a political, "fix"

As I stated last week, the major problem confronting the region in 2013 will be based upon conflicting interest by several outside nation states.

It has become more than obvious the Tsar  has determined international "issues" will have Russian input to the fullest extent possible.

The days of the " Old Soviet Union" rebuilding never took place.

What emerged was the new Nationalistic Russia with a hardcore, aggressive leader!

Now, this new Russia is based on worldwide demand for fuels and that makes the Middle East and the region around it nearly the Center of Gravity for Russia.

Now, the leaders of the Middle have long understood the value of their lands to the rest of the world, but two major changes have taken place and these changes are making it virtually impossible for regional leaders to keep the world as they use to have it.

The first major change is the reality of the world become far more efficient at finding fuel in areas other than the Middle East.

The simple fact that oil empires of the Middle East for the first time have competitors throughout the world not just in one or two additional locations has brought the concept of competition to the doorsteps of the GCC.

Having the world, "kiss the ring", has been a mindset with many of these leaders for decades.

Now, I realize the counterargument is always been and will remain world only cares about the oil and not the people in the region and not sure I can argue this point.

 You see the concept of nations that conduct themselves according to what is good or important for other nations and societies are very seldom world leaders.

At the risk of being politically incorrect, it is appropriate to admit that a  nation's primary interest must always be the protection and the betterment of themselves.

Having said that, enduring relationship in the Middle East between the rest of the world and those that suddenly discovered there were sitting on some of the largest fuel deposits are found has been precarious at best.

Now, with the introduction of what I consider the second issue, it becomes clear to see what our true problem is.

Instantaneous, virtually uncontrollable, communications down to the lowest/poorest/level of society; that is the second issue that has overwhelmed the Middle East.

Ruthless leaders both recognized and ignored have found it nearly impossible to suppress or fool their citizens into day-to-day peaceful existence.

Extreme wealth stacked upon extremely poor governance layered with complex social imbalances both economic and religious as combined to create an environment in the Middle East that none of the current governments can manage.

It is also become very apparent to the rest of the world, those who strive from within these challenged nations to, "set things right", do not have the tools nor the experience and most importantly  the allegiance  to each other carryout this daunting task

Some not most in the region and smell true freedom after decades if not millennia of suppression.

The rush to, "freedom", and all chaos that ensued is the result of all parties involved, not just the ruthless governments suppressing them when the youthful members in the streets of the religious fanatics trying desperately to take advantage of the chaos.

I can't count how many times I've heard the comment, "a comprehensive regional plan", for the Middle East.

One typically only hears this type of talk during election or at some societal functional event with black ties and champagne glasses.

In 2013, the world does not have, "a plan", for the region known as the Middle East we can anticipate further problems on larger scale and unfortunately more disastrous results.

The, "mothership", of the region's Saudi!

As the government of Saudi tries desperately to keep the regional issues outside of its capital even at the price of conflict is Eastern territories, territories that hold most of Saudi soil, the world will struggle with ignoring her chastising or worse yet endorsing pending actions of the Saudi government.

When a government is in trouble, a government needs to recognize enemy!

The 2013 issue in the Middle East may or may not be Israel and Iran.

The 2013 issue in the Middle East will most likely be continued sectarian conflict, which is actually a proxy conflict between the GCC nations and Iran, and this conflict has all the tools all the fuels grow larger and more dangerous.

If the Israelis truly believe the Iranians are not close to functional nuclear weapon, forget about nuclear tipped missiles, then allowing the region to continue in the Arab versus Persian\Sunni\Shia\proxy fight might just will be acceptable answer.

From the perspective of the rest of us, without a unified plan will be no resolution in the region.

Unified plan is virtually impossible is old enemies once again begin to struggle over their prominence in the world.

2013:  WHERE IS THE MIDDLE EAST HEADING? PART III: THE GCC

As is always the case, the ability to predict the future of something as complex as the Middle East is nearly impossible.

Not only is it true for the leading nations of the world, but it is especially true for the government of the GCC.

The desire to maintain, "status quo", could easily become a pipe dream and 2013 with the GCC.

The ability of all parties involved to manipulate the emotions of the young and the poor with the purpose of either causing tensions ones enemies or deflecting internal discourse has become a tool with very little effective management.

It seems leadership of all the nations involved better creating problems others and they are dealing with their own.

GCC leaders are also coming to realize contrary to their common belief, they cannot buy their way out of every single issue that confronts them!

Are there injustices in the nations of the GCC?

Obviously the answer is yes; given the answer is yes and just about every nation in the civilized world.

In 2013 Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the rest of the GCC will struggle to avoid overreacting to a population that growing more and more divided; division is based upon external pressures such as Iran and internal injustices.

The counter perceived actions of Iran, the GCC must do more than simply create an equal level of tension inside of the Iranian sphere of influence; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon.

In order for the GCC governments to ensure their survival and more importantly societal calm, must travel the route at the current administration in Jordan is attempting.

The concept of appeasement and negotiation is always difficult.

Public perception is the weighted factor in the modern day version of negotiation.

King of Jordan realizes he simply cannot beat or water cannon public into submission.

He also realizes he is not facing the majority of his public, but a well-organized action led yet again Muslim brotherhood.

It is safe to say the Jordanians have a far more complex plan for dealing with the proxy social unrest is playing out inside Jordan.

The GCC leaders would do well in attempting to model the Jordanian plan is much as possible, but I'm afraid the arrogance of the GCC wealth was simply make that impossible.

So, in 2013 trials and tribulations with the GCC will most likely be based upon self-inflicted wounds as hard as they may try and blame "Iran" or others!

Simple problems are often solved quickly by organized and mature governments.

Simple problems become full-blown crisis is the governments that are not organized and even worse have little in common with the day-to-day society of their nations.

Information flows are too fast and far too deep for suppressive governments to effectively keep their people in the dark.

The fact that someone supplies large amount of the world's fuel does not negate them from being responsible for good governorship.

Simply put, troubles for the GCC in 2013 will be greater than the troubles of 2012.

How that affects the rest of the world unfortunately will still be based solely upon productivity of oil and the dangers to that productivity.

2013:  WHERE IS THE MIDDLE EAST HEADING? PART II. IRAQ?

Over a year and a half ago, it was becoming obvious the Arab Spring was morphing into a regional sectarian conflict; the issue of Iraq's future came into play.

No one in their right mind would have ever had made statement in Iraq" stable".

Regional issues of the Sunni and Shia tensions were no different and are no different for Iraq.

The future of such sectarian tensions in Iraq once again  far more important for the Iranian government than others in the region.

Towards the end of the American occupation of Iraq to become clear to many of us the true Victor after several years of conflict was going to be the Iranians.

But as luck would have it, the Arab Spring would come alive the whole region.

Now, the concept of social injustice and economic imbalance was not going to be the catalyst for conflict in Iraq as much as age old issue of sectarian, tribal animosities.

As the Arab Spring began to be molded into what some believed would be a more, "controlled event", it became apparent that Iraq would come into play.

You see, in my opinion, the GCC nations began to believe a sectarian conflict in the region was far more controllable than the social disruption of the Arab Spring.

As these leaders began to reshape Arab Spring, it also became apparent  the opportunity to pull our least disrupt Iraq from the Iranian sphere of influence was an opportunity that must be explored.

It is not a complicated thought process as such is not that difficult to come to the conclusion of the GCC nations and others determined the best way to defeat the pending social disruption of the Arab Spring was to change it into something had more of a, "external threat", smell to it!

Iran became that external threat.

Now, I ran to have its goals for the Arab Spring as well as a grand plan to keep the event from taking place inside the Iranian populace.

So, in the midst of all of this, Iraq became the potential battleground for the ongoing, deflecting proxy campaign to prevent many of the current governments in the Middle East from going the path of Tunisia and Egypt.

But we have witnessed over the past few days, mass protest inside Iraq, is easily in another annex to the GCC nations' master plan for Iran.

You can well expect continued turmoil in Iraq and you can fully anticipate a greater degree of Iranian meddling in the GCC states.

One thing the GCC nations and the Iranians have in common, is the simple fact that this ongoing proxy environment throughout the region will delay in disrupt the concept of the Arab Spring truly taking hold inside their respective nations.

So, in 2013, you can add Iraq to the list of troubles not just for the region for the UN and the rest of the world.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/12/2012122875346526845.html

2013:  WHERE IS THE MIDDLE EAST HEADING?  PART 1:  

To begin the discussion of what may happen in the year ahead with Middle East, let's play an interesting game of, "what if".

What if:

What if the Israelis begin to truly realize the concept of the GCC leading the, "fight", against Persians?

What if the Israelis could leverage the Arab anxieties towards the Persians more than just simple backroom conversations and unofficial contacts?

It is not news that the Israelis have realized for some time Arab nations anxiety over the Iranians, but evidence that the Israelis and truly learned how to, "leverage", this anxiety is inconclusive best.

So, what if 2013 is the year where the Israelis expand upon reaching a working solution, at least on paper and in the media, with the GCC's nations in order to pacify Palestinian statehood issue?

The recent conversations between Israelis and the Jordanians and the Israelis and the Turkish government could well be an indicator such an Israeli concept.

Just think the position the Iranians would be a if the issue of the Palestinian statehood with at least a point of physical confrontation was not needed more likely?

Iranians have always counted on the Palestinian statehood issue as their major support base in the Arab world.

I like everyone else fully realize the lack of this confrontational agenda would not stop Iran from supporting and promoting more radical elements Islamic fundamentalism, but believe it or not public support in the Arab community is an important factor to the Iranians.

You see, the Iranians not only have to worry about the opinions of the Arab youth and the common working people in the region, they must more importantly worry about the opinions of the Iranian public.

Simply put, a level de-escalation in the Palestinian statehood issue is disastrous news for the Iranian government.

So, in 2013 the Iranians could easily be facing a loss of two proxy supporters, Syria, Iraq; a topic I will discuss further tomorrow.

I am very confident that when the Iranian, Persians, look into their crystal ball, 2013 is not a year of high hopes for the future of the current Iranian government.

2013 will begin with the continued crisis called Syria, but it could end with a crisis in side of Iran or dealing with Iran.

AS 2013 APPROACHES, REGIONAL ISSUES GROW.

As hard as it might seem to believe, the post Syrian conflict issues for the region truly are becoming the priority concern the governments Middle East.

It is no mystery that the GCC nations have a unified issue, Iran!

For months now I have spoken to the issue of rainy and, Persians, GCC, Arab, tensions in the dangers that may ahead.

It is old and redundant news understand Iran continues to desire and need this attractive conflicts which they can manipulate the region.

Clearly GCC leaders are anticipating the next, "battle", after the fall of Assad.

It is not difficult to see the obvious sectarian fighting lines in this conversation between the GCC and the leadership of Iran.

I find interesting is the fact that in reality the GCC, issue is about power and money.

Power and money may not have the same vigor as religious differences, but to in reality go hand-in-hand.

As the last week in the year 2012 comes to a close, I will spend the rest of that time speaking to the issue of the sectarian struggle in the Middle East.

The street-level sectarian issue is the guiding, motivational force.

The nationstate level, the issue is power and wealth.

Stoking the fires of hatred based upon sectarian, historical differences, is an easy tool in the hands of all of those involved.

2012 closes out not being a good year for Iran, Syria and most importantly the czar!

Over the course of the next several days, I will take a stab at painting a picture of where I believe the sectarian or so called, "sectarian", conflict will take the region in 2013.

It is far too easy and far too simplistic make the statement at the chapter called Assad is about to come to a close.

Yet, the truth is the region continues to face issues that outweigh even the atrocities of the Syrian conflict.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/20121225233041666942.html

CHRISTMAS EVE 2012... WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Right at two years ago, many of us are already discussing the repercussions of conflict in Syria and how Syria was not going to be Libya or Egypt or Tunisia.

On Christmas Eve 2012, it is all too obvious how this confrontation has brought about many of the nightmares the region and indeed the world feared.

What started as an Arab spring over two years ago, is now morphed, as many feared, into an ever escalating sectarian conflict.

As is the case with all conflicts, the main stumbling block is the inconsistent and in most cases conflicting, "vision", of the parties involved.

The welfare of the people involved in the conflict has taken a backseat, as they always do, to the visions and desires and plans of others.

If sectarian warfare is truly the future of the region, then the outcome of that sectarian conflict becomes the paramount question.

What nations desire what results and what actions are they willing to take to reach those results or more importantly to prevent others from reaching their results?

The concept of "Proxy" operations\conflict\is not new to the Middle East.

Added to this complete lack of unity in the Middle East is the perplexing and extremely complicated issue of social media and social networking.

The days of nation state, "shaping", the actions of a conflict especially a proxy conflict are long gone.

It is becoming more and more apparent the speed of fraud information and social communication is far greater than the speed of nation state, "planning"!

All of this is leading us to realize that in the 21st century the ability to shape, prevent or minimize the damage of conflict is changing dramatically.

The Middle East in reality is becoming the 21st century version of a political, "Tower of Babel"!

Prior to the age of social media, social networking it was far more realistic to assume that nation states at the time to communicate and, "plan".

The world continues to struggle with the concept of a conflict that is virtually being watched 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.

To put it simply, world leaders cannot keep up.

Not only can world leaders not keep up but the so-called, "professional journalist", and professional networks struggle to get the story right or even cover the story at all.

At a time when a large proportion of the world turns to YouTube and bloggers to keep up with events in a crisis, one has to wonder what is the future of professional political leadership?

As dangerous and tragic as the Syrian situation might be, I'm afraid this entire event is an indicator of just how fast and confusing the next even larger crisis may become!

Nations that cannot deal with writing information have a tendency to do two things and one of them is much worse than the other.

The first, is the reality that they tend to get the story wrong.

The second and more dangerous point is they tend to panic!

Quite frankly the more micromanaging and totalitarian the government is the faster they will panic.

I just described the nation of Iran as it realizes it's status in the region.

A sectarian conflict mixed with a social media network interwoven with the economic imbalance of wealth creates a formula for disaster for Iran and quite frankly for several other Gulf states as well.

2013 approaches quickly and the dangers of conflict in the region are not getting any closer to resolution and more importantly any easier to deal with.

All of this is made all the more difficult by having multiple nations pulling in multiple directions desiring multiple outcomes.

Having said that I still find it amazing that the world is found, "unification", with a group now being labeled as the Syrian government in exile, yet the world cannot agree on what the in-state for the region should be.

What will 2013 hold?

My bet is the region becomes more complex, more destabilized and unfortunately more confrontational but more on that this week.

THE CONFUSION AND CONCERN!!! SYRIA'S WMDs!!!

Many conflicting stories have been generated in the past few days over the status of weapons of mass destruction and who is truly in charge of defending them, moving them in the long run using them.

Netanyahu chose his words carefully when he spoke of preparing Israel for major changes in Syria.

Some organizations seem to be, "assured", that the weapons in question still remain secure.

Yet, others are not near as confident as for that reason Netanyahu gave his warning not just to the region but to the rest of the world.

No one, and I mean no one, is confident, truly confident, as to the location and the status of all the weapons in question inside of Syria.

What is known is that the Islamic fundamentalist fighters are consistently the ones who are making the most headway against the government of Syria.

Verbal assurances by Russian officials are simply not enough for the world to be at ease.

Israel understands all too well the price of being wrong.

If Israel is, "wrong", or if Israel believes the verbal assurances of the likes of Russia and those assurances turn out to be nothing more than wishful thinking,  then results could be catastrophic.

It is no coincidence that the conversations of the security of the WMD weapons and the pending departure of Assad have gone hand-in-hand for well over a week now.

One event absolutely leads to the concerns of the other.

Rumors of, "other forces", being in Syria to ensure the safety of these weapons based upon, "wishful thinking"!

What I find disturbing on both accounts, the rumors of Assad's departure and the security of the WDs in Syria, is the lack of input or emphasis on the intent or actions of the Iranians!

Is there the possibility that the Iranians and the Russians are allowing the Russians to take lead on this conversation?

Yes.

It is very possible the Iranians understand they cannot be the "lead" on the topic of Syrian weapons of mass destruction.

"Assurances" from Tehran would hold virtually no accreditation with the rest of the world, whereas Russian "assurances" would keep many in the world at ease, at least for now.

In the past three weeks the rapid advances by the rebels have simply made it more difficult for the rest of the world to have detailed analysis and planning for the events unfolding in Syria.

As I've said before, events inside Syria are moving faster than planners and governments!

Here's what I know.

Those Islamic fundamentalist fighters who are obviously carrying the battle to Syrian government will also have a vote on any negotiated post Assad government whether the rest of the world likes it or not.

Having said that, these groups are typically not run by "fools".

The ownership and status of weapons that the rest of the world and especially Israel will not tolerate any ministries over must be crystal clear with her without Assad being in Syria.

As the Russians struggle to remain relevant in the region, it is possible that the Iranians have come to an agreement with the Russians to take "the lead", but the wishes and the visions of the Russians seldom match those of the Persians.

Few things are clear when it comes to Syria right now, but it is obvious the most critical issue is not the status of Assad.

Two weeks ago the issue was, would Assad actually utilize WMDs against his own people.

Today, the issue is where are they, who has them, and what is the plan to keep Israel from a complete state of panic?

The lives of thousands of Israelis will not be determined by a verbal commitment from the actions or the West or the UN.

There is a saying in the United States Army; "deeds above words".

Someone needs to show the Israelis deeds before words and the need to do so convincingly and quickly.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=297021