AS THE ARAB SPRING TURNS TO FALL…!

Months ago, when the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus/ was really getting underway, I made three general predictions.

1. All roads would eventfully lead to Israel and the Palestinian Statehood issue.

2.  The ‘movement’ would lead to Iran realizing war with Israel maybe their only way to survive the “revolution”.

3.  The Social Revolutionary movement and the Fundamentalist would battle over who is really the champion of the cause.

As September goes from being the future to becoming the present, I feel safe in my statement that all three of my predictions are coming true.

Let me explain why I believe all three of my predictions are moving forward into the Arab Fall and soon to be the Arab Winter; we may not make it to the Arab Winter!.

The Palestinian Statehood issue becomes center stage for all three predictions!

If the theme of the Arab Spring was and is “Injustices, then the Palestinian Statehood issue was bound to be the cornerstone event.

Israel and the UN have understood this from the moment both recognized the Arab Spring was more than just a Tunisian event.

Iran sees their future when they look to Syria and Egypt and this has moved them to search for a way out of their pending  doom.

As Hamas pulled away from them and Hezbollah became embroiled in the STL issue, Iran understood the best Defense is a good Offense.  

Prodding the Israelis with border protest was an easily identifiable “ clue” as to the course of action Iran was going to take.

Iran knew they had to  make the Israeli, Palestinian confrontation the center piece of the Arab Spring.

Iran could not  wait for a Syrian style protest to appear inside their country.

As September approaches, the focus of the Arab public and the world media must be the PA statehood issue.

It must suck every once of energy out of the Arab Spring even if it leads to war.

Here is the problem.

Most wars start with a disastrous miscalculation on the part of one the parties involved and Iran is fulfilling this historical theory.

To save itself, it must risk warfare with Israel and bank on Israel’s restrained response.

What Iran has seemingly forgotten is  what the key issue to Israel is when it comes to Iran.

Yes Israel agonizes over the PA statehood issue, but when Iran’s name enters the conversation, the focus becomes…. nuclear weapons.

This is the disastrous miscalculation I mentioned above.

Iran is nearly to the point they must chose between civil unrest and a controlled… limited war with Israel.. hopefully executed by Hamas and Hezbollah with litlte impact to Iran itself.

This becomes the second huge miscalculation on Iran’s part, but this is one that some of their leaders understand to be flawed.

Hamas and Hezbollah willingness to destroy themselves in a war with Israel for the sake of the future Persian Empire is a stretch at best.

Something Israel seems to understand better than Iran.

Finally, Iran sees the true leadership of the Arab Spring and because of that, they understand their options are limited.

The Social Revolutionaries of the Academic arena, over the course of the past several months, have beaten Iran in the public perception fight over the Arab Spring.

Discounting the Muslim Brotherhood’s hijacking scheme for the Arab Spring, one that has no Iranian motive, the Social Revolutionaries are truly seen as the champignons of the movement.

Iran knows all too well these champions will bring the movement into Iran.. along with the help of the Muslim Brotherhood.

So, the concepts of Control of the movement, war with Israel and Palestinian Statehood are intertwined beyond separation.

The movement will bring two issues to the forefront; the survival of the Iranian government and it’s   dream of a Persian Empire and Israel’s need to deal with the Iranian issue once and for all.

There will be an “Arab Fall”, but it I am not sure there will be an Arab Winter.

Fall may lead to conflict!

September is here and so is the true danger of the Arab Spring.



SEPTEMBER IS ALMOST HERE!!

This article strikes right to the point I have been talking about since January  of this year. 

Between the STL and the potential loss of Syria, Iran finds itself in a 

desperate position. 

For Iranian leadership, the dream of the "Persian Empire" is all but gone and the reality of survival is about to take place. 

Iran has to come to grips with the following facts. 

1.    Hamas as a strategic war fighting tool has been lost to the allure of the Muslim Brotherhood. ( Egypt) 

2.       The STL indictments could lead to Hezbollah losing its grip on 

Lebanon. (Odds are better than 50 .. .50) 

               a.   Something the MB would love to see. 

b.   Lebanon's chances of sliding into conflict grows larger with each passing day. 

         i.      The end result is Iran losing its second strategic tool for conflict with Israel. (Hezbollah's second front on Israel's border). 

1.      Syria's pending loss as a Satellite of Iran with the reality of a Turkish influenced / Sunni  based government.   ( Ottomans 1. Persian 0 ) 

2.      Immanent social disorder inside Iran based upon the fall of Syria. 

                        (The Spring comes to Iran .. finally) 

               a. As oppressive as Iran's leadership is, it will not stop the 

        movement if Assad falls. 

i.         Iran is fooling itself if it thinks it can control 

" social networking". 

   b. The "Resistance" has had months to set up the infrastructure    to do so.. with "friends". (Articles and blogs abound on this topic.) 

 So, how important does the Palestinian issue become to Iran in September? 

 I submit it becomes an issue of national survival. 

Pushing Israel to violence without openly starting the war has to be Iran's only option, but they will have to be ready for total war; something that will be virtually impossible for them to achieve.

Iran has to get the attention shifted and the Palestinian issue is the only real option they have left. 

The vote in the UN will be dramatic regardless of the outcome. 

If it is delayed, as some speculate it could be, riots and protest will be the result.. 

  Not just in Israel, but Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon as well. 

 They will be huge and violence is all but assured.

  ( Iran will make sure of it)  

If the US is forced to actually Veto the UNSC vote, it won't get that far, then the results are the same only with open hostility to the US; more than usual.  

If the UNGA votes for anything other than membership, the results will be the same. 

It is for this reason that Israel has announced a mobilization starting near September 10th. 

The rest of the world may underestimate what is going to happen in September of 2011, but Israel will not. 

Oh ya.. Iran does have one true friend left. North Korea!!!! 

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/23/the-new-alliance-troubling-tehran/ 



LIBYA.  DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH FOR A “DEMOCRACY” ANYTIME SOON.

Most of us ‘Realist” understands the daunting task ahead for Libya.

The process of building a functional government  is going to require help and help from only those the Libyan people will accept.

So, what if the majority of the people in the new “Free” Libya decide they want a government and constitution based on Shari Law?

The hope of the West will be a Libya that follows a Turkish model and that is wishful thinking.

The bad news was already being seen late in the day when several Rebel groups were setting up their own “checkpoints” in the Capital!

Not easy to notice, but never the less the process was under way.

Does that mean Libya is staring out on the wrong foot?

Here is the problem; I’m not sure the Rebel Leadership was ready for such a fast victory.

Yes, some preliminary plans may have been drawn up for the post revolution government, but I would be willing to bet not everyone was on board!

The euphoria of today could easily turn into concern over the next 48 hrs and then slide into despair!  

Can Libya turn into a Somalia?

Yes!

Will there be a better effort to salvage Libya than what took place in Somalia back in the 90s?

Yes.

Why?

Oil!

Sound too simplistic?

It’s not.

The fighting may be over or at least drawn down to controllable levels, but the struggle of Libya has just begun.

The future of Libya is very much up in the air and the West knows it.

Was there good news today?

Yes…. From the viewpoint of Iran and Assad.

The news on Syria was just about off the radar most of the day.

I hope Iran and Assad enjoyed the reprieve because all eyes are quickly coming back to Syria.





IRAN NEEDS GADDAFI TO HOLD ON!!!

The last thing Iran needs right now is for all eyes to turn back to Syria.

For the past few days the trend has been just what Iran and Lapdog Assad needed; everyone watching Libya and Gaza!

Behind the scene Turkey is working hard on their next move over Syria because being a future “leader” demands constant action and never-ending leadership.

Iran knows this and that makes them even more desperate to keep the world’s attention somewhere else.

So, Gaddafi needs to keep up the pressure and keep the media ridding around in trashed out pickup trucks driven by low functioning IQ idiots all for the sake of praying you can get shot at on live feed; at least this is how Iran sees it!

Already today there were protestors yelling, “ Assad you are next”.

Now, Iran has not completely exhausted their Libyan option.

If anyone believes for a single second the better days for Libya are about to start… well … they should go back to watching “ The Batchelor” or WWE Wrestling.  

The LMB and “others” are going to struggle to implement what the West is terrified of and that is yet another country falling to Shariah Law.

The odds of the ragtag alliance in Libya forming a functional government anytime in the near future are about a BILLION to ONE!!!

Tribal allegiances in a land that has absolutely no notion of a freely elected government will impede the hopes of the West.

The bottom line; Libya is a long ways away from a peaceful future and that is just the kind of news Iran is praying for.

I do have bad news for the Persian Empire.

If all that takes place in Libya is arguing and protesting, the lack of blood and bodies will mean the loss of  news coverage.

So, Iran has to have a fallback plan and that plan is keeping the violence moving in Libya.

Their ability to “support” radical elements in Libya is a fact the West can not overlook.

For all that we have talked about over the past five months when it comes to Libya, the real Iranian plan is about to unfold in September!

But,  the MB and Egypt and possibly Turkey may have other ideas for the PA issue and Israel and I am betting Iran is not part of their planning right now.

Libya is shifting to the sidelines and the stage is set for what could be the most dramatic event for the Middle East in decades…



HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS CONFLICTED OVER ISRAEL.

It is no mystery the allegiances of Hamas have been shifting to the MB and everyone  knows Hezbollah dances to the fiddle of Iran.

Iran may have rebuilt Hamas after the conflict with Israel in 2008, but it would be foolish to think that Sunni Hamas would abandon it’s “roots”… the MB and the Sunni faith for the sake of Iranian arms.

Egypt is again the epicenter of the MB movement and so Egypt’s ability to convince Hamas supported operations to cease hostilities with Israel makes prefect sense.

So here comes the real problem for Israel, just because Hamas agrees, at Egypt’s bidding, to a cease fire, that  doesn’t mean the other groups will abide.

The Hezbollah supported units march to the drum of Iran and Iran is getting exactly what they want from this conflict……  a distraction from Syria… with the exception of Assad’s completely asinine  press conference today.

Let’s make this real simple.

Egypt and the MB do not want this event to derail the plans for September.

Iran desperately needs this event to continue, but not spiral out of control

  When it comes to dealing with Israel, Egypt and Iran have very different plans and luckily very little incentive to work together.

Israel must balance the actions of both of these countries along with preparing for the events of September.

September is only a week away and Israel will not sleep for weeks to come.

September could be the “Perfect Storm”.

http://www.debka.com/article/21230/

ISRAEL AND EGYPT.. THE DANGER OF ESCALATION.  

Last night I talked about just how tedious the situation between Egypt and Israel had become over the terrorist attack and the reactions to it.

It is obvious the tensions have increased drastically in the past 24 hrs.

I will go on record stating I do not believe Egypt is willing to turn this event into a full scale crisis that could lead to conflict and the same goes for Israel.

I think what is going on here is the Egyptian Military has and had two issues that forced the Egyptian government to respond.

1. The Fundamentalist wasted no time taking advantage of the event.

The protest at the Israeli Embassy  was quickly organized and probably took very little effort.

2. The Israeli comment about the Egyptian Military not being able to control the      Sinai border with Israel was an complete disaster.  

Any operational planner worth their weight in salt should have been able to predict this was just the kind of half-baked statement the attackers were praying Israel would make.

It played right into their hands. STUPID!!!!

How Israel, after all that is going on in the Middle East, could not figure out the “ Master Plan’ of needing a distraction for Syria, is a complete mystery to me.

These “groups” in Gaza have handlers and their actions were coordinated for a reason.

Honestly, It makes me wonder if Israel has the ability to think clearly about what is going on in the Middle East.

Perhaps the pending events of September are so overwhelming to them that they are prone to  kneejerk reaction right now!

I am not kidding when I say, I am stunned Israel misplayed this event at the public statement level and the idea they would be reluctant to apologize for the losses of the Egyptian Military and civilian  police  makes me almost lost for words.

Here is the problem; the spiraling of events is not dictated by the Egyptian Military, but by the groups firing rockets and mortars out of Gaza!

I still believe Israel is too smart to jump into another ground operation in Gaza, but if the rockets continue, Israel can only assume the groups have been ordered to continue; thus the risk of escalation grows exponentially.

The IDF has working relationships with the PA security forces and the ability to estimate just how much longer this might go on is  an advantage for the IDF.

Are things going to get out of control?

As it stands now, I don’t think it will, but Israel simply must get better at predicting what needs to be said or it may get way …way … out of hand.

As I said last night…. The whole area is on Pins and Needles and poor decision making will be disastrous.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=234680

http://www.debka.com/article/21226/



ATTACKS IN ISRAEL AND AN UPDATE ON SYRIA:

Sometimes timing is everything and today’s attacks in Israel is a classic example.

If tensions were not so high right now, the attacks of today, as dramatic as they were, would have not run the chance of exploding into something far more serious.

I’m not convinced this event will lead to such an action, but any slipup right now and the whole situation could get out of hand fast.

I am convinced the attack was a message to Egypt and Israel.

The Terror units operating out of the Sinai are capable of acting whenever they like.

The Egyptian movement into the Sinai this week to deal with these groups probably lead to them making the statement they did today.

It tells Israel Egypt will have a far more difficult time securing the Sinai than Egypt is willing to admit.

Already today there was a call for Israel to review the security measures along the border with Egypt.

If that was the intent of this attack, and I think it was, then the groups got just the reaction they were looking for.

The IDF attacks into Gaza are as predictable as any action in the Middle East.

The fact that an Operational leader was actually killed in the attack on Gaza tells me the IDF keeps their target sets “ eyes on” probably at all times and simply waits to get the green light to hit them.

Bottom line; the events of today are critical not just because of the deaths and severity of the attacks, anti tank weapons again against a bus, but the whole area is on pins and needles.

Any event can quickly spiral into a major issue.

Syria:

I think I read this analogy four or five times today about Assad; “ A day late and a dollar short”.

After you utilize field artillery, tanks and  helicopter gunships against your own public, it’s a little reticules to announce “ reforms”.

The odds of the UN pushing Crimes against Humanity charges are probably on the horizon for Assad.

The  US President’s call for Assad to leave is more of a sequential process than an open statement.

The pressure of such a statement is placed on Russia and China.

They both know they are more and more placing themselves on the wrong side of this event.

The President’s statement will have been well coordinated with the Turkish government and perhaps even the Arab League.  

Here we go again!

The question still remains; what will Iran do about Assad?

If we see follow on attacks from the Sinai or other areas, we may have the answer, as unfortunate as that answer would be.