HEZBOLLAH'S BLUFF? I DON'T THINK SO!

Take the time to read this article!

I know I sound like Chicken Little, but for several months now I have been
saying Iran would not stand for the fall of Syria / Assad.

I have reiterated time and time again two main points.

1. Iran will look for a 'distraction' to prevent the collapse of
Assad. They know if he falls, the Iranian government is next.

                a. The size of this distraction will be proportional to the risk Iran
                is willing to assume.

2. Iran will not allow Hezbollah or Hamas to strike out on their own
accord.

                They are both strategic assets Iran rebuilt for the purpose of
                executing a second and third front on Israel if Iran has to go to war.

We should assume, for Hezbollah  to make the statements made in the article, they must have been given 'guidance, permission' to do so!

I do not believe this discussion was simply a matter of 'grandstanding'.

Let me make several points to show why the timing of this article is
troubling.

1. As is stated in the article, the reputation of Hezbollah is under
attack in the Arab public. Just look at the two stories published on Al
Jazeera yesterday.

                a. They are seen, as the US is, as being hypocritical  when it comes to the
                'Arab Spring'. A title they are not use to, or can ill afford.



2. The sudden 'agreement' on a Lebanese government last week was
probably a sign of the tension / pressure placed on Hezbollah by Iran.

                " We need you to get your act together and be ready, so.. get it done." (Iranian
                pressure to get moving.)



3. Hezbollah knows the STL indictments are coming and the old plan of
just blowing them off disappeared with Syria began to burn.

                a. The Author is probably correct, if you have been following the STL,
                when he states Syria may be implicated as well.

                b. The ability to keep control of Lebanon, when Syria is in a state of
                emergency is just another weight on Iranian leadership.

                c. Hezbollah is expected to keep the lid on Lebanon until the time
                Iran needs it's second front on Israel.



4. The Palestinians are beginning to side with the 'resistance' in
Syria.

                a. This is a terrifying event for Assad and Iran.

                b. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has their fingers in this and pulling
                the Palestinians away from the Iranian/ Syrian camp is a disaster for Iran
                and Assad. ( The 'sectarian issue is very important here.)



5. Iran sees Turkey as gaining on all fronts and a collapsed Syria
would lead to Iran making one of two decisions.

                a. Fight Turkey for the control of Syria; thus taking on a NATO country.

                                (Something Israel would love to see).

                b. Allowing Turkey to become truly the future 'regional' leader, thus
                destroying the dream of the Iranian / Persian / Empire. ( Part of the
                conflict inside Iran right now.)



6. Last, but not least, the internal conflict inside Iran.



a. The two leaders are at odds over the countries' future.

                i. One sees the next Persian Empire and one sees the Muslim Empire.

                ii. They both see the 'Arab Spring' coming!



This article and the   'threat'  it speaks to  cannot be underestimated!

The idea of this whole process not leading to a 'Regional War' is
unrealistic.

Hezbollah will not go to war with Israel without Iranian permission.

Israel gets a vote on the war being regional or not.

                Does Israel keep kicking the Iranian can down the road?

I've said it before, but I will repeat myself.

This is a very.. Very dangerous time in the Middle East.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=226129

 ONE HEZBOLLAH / TWO OPINIONS.

Two very interesting articles that speak to an issue that cannot be ignored.

Hezbollah is a critical component in the future of the Middle East.

How Hezbollah shapes their future will be determined on who they are truly loyal to.

The first article practically begs Hezbollah's leader, Nasrallah  to realize the error of his ways while piling tons of praise on his accomplishments.

the Author implores Nasrallah to understand the support he gives Assad is all but destroying the accreditation of Hezbollah.

It is clear the concern here is Hezbollah is heading down the wrong path with the Arab Spring!

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/2011619134113577322.html

The second article takes a much more forward approach to the actions of Nasrallah.

I don't know that I have seen a article written by any non Jew that simply rips Hezbollah and it's leader as artfully as this attack.

If I was the author of this story, I think I would have someone else start my car for me for the next few years!

It the word of verbal Judo, this author hacked Nasrallah to death!

Here is the simple truth.

Both Authors are correct.

Hezbollah, mainly Nasrallah, will not wake up to the fact that in the eye's of their handlers, Iran, Hezbollah is nothing more than a 'pawn' on the Chess Board called the Middle East.

The future of Hezbollah and all they believe in is meaningless to the Persians / Iranians.

Hezbollah exist for one simple reason; to step into the meat grinder of warfare when the time comes.

They are there to draw the fire of Israel  and to inflict as much damage as possible while Iran attempts to win or just survive the next regional war.

When it is all said and done, if Lebanon, or what is left of it, is destroyed, Iran will care less.  

It will become what it has been used for by Jordan and Egypt and Syria for decades now; a dumping ground for all of those Iran doesn't want living near the Persians of Iran.

One man's freedom fighters is another man's Terrorist, but Hezbollah is more than that to Iran.

Hezbollah is a large pile of meat to be shoved in front of the bullets to keep the Iranian vision alive.

Hamas is staring to wake up to the Iranian trick.

If Hezbollah does the same, Iran is doomed!

 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/2011618103354910596.html

AHMADINEJAD AND MASHAEI STILL UNDER ATTACK:

The power struggle in Iran continues and in my opinion it is growing more hostile with each passing day.

I have stated before the Muslim clerics stand ready to pounce on Ahmadinejad and are simply waiting for the order to do so.

I still believe the plan is to keep he and Mashaei around as a safety net in case the civil unrest of the Middle East flairs up in Iran; and it will!

Having a 'scapegoat' to place out in front of the public is just what the Clerics are preparing themselves for.

They can't start this campaign against the elected President from a cold start.

They have to start the ' smearing process' now so by the time they need to toss him, the public is not perceiving it as just a cover up to appease them.

The problem is, it will be seen for being just that.

If Ahmadinejad is the one who cracks down on the pending revolt, and that doesn't stem the tide, and it won't, then the Clerics will put their plan into operation.

I've said this before, but I will repeat my theory.

Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are Persian Nationalist.

They can see what is taking place with the Clerics.

They have one option; out maneuver them.

Ahmadinejad and Mashaei have one HUGE advantage over the religious fanatics in Iran.

 The youth of Iran is far more amenable to being Nationalistic then they are following old, worn out Clerics and Religious zealots.

If Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are smart, and I have my doubts on that point; at least on Ahmadinejad, then they will position themselves as the suppressed leaders of a Nationalistic movement.

How they go about painting this picture is going to be interesting.

One initial step is to continue to be abused by the Clerics, while doing nothing more than talking about how Great Iran should become based upon the 'youth' of the country.

How all this is going to play out is far from known yet, but the game is underway and the stakes couldn't be any higher for the entire region.

 http://www.newsmaxworld.com/middle_east/ML_Iran/2011/06/21/394629.html

EGYPT AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

Many people have talked about the changes brought on by the revolution in Egypt to include the consistent worry of the MB gaining control of the government.

It was the topic of conversation even before Mubarak left power.

The, "what if" factor was alive then and it still lives today.

As you read this article, pay attention to the  not so quiet changes the MB is now floating  to the Egyptian public.

Look at the logic of the argument that forms the baseline of this story.

The MB and Egypt must have a government based on ' Muslim values'.

The MB may perhaps gain control of the Parliament.

And last but certainly not least, the MB has members who may wish to step outside the part and run for the Presidency.  

Saying someone is going to 'step outside' the MB is like saying someone is going to leave the CIA or the Mafia!

The play here is obvious; announce you are not affiliated with the MB ' officially' and after you win, state you are going to work with them.

Code for; the MB wins the Presidency.

Another interesting aspect of this article is the fact the author recognizes the potential rift between the youth of Egypt / MB / and the older members of the MB.

Two months ago, the standard line was, "don't  worry about the MB, the youthful side of the movement will not just rollover for the older members".

Well; get the roll cage attached to the political race car.

The message here is not lost on those who know Egypt and have been following events there.

The MB is poised to call the shots in Egypt and the future of Egypt is going to be based upon the concept of government the MB comes up with.

Does this mean everyone in Egypt is going to fall in line and march to the drum beat of the MB?

I don't think so.

Egypt may have an election coming and the MB may rule the day of that election, but freedom  to include the rights of Women is going to be very hard to put back in a cage.

This article paints a very detailed picture of Egypt and the readers must be able to understand all the underlying issues captured in it.

Egypt is a long... long way from being back to normal.

 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/201162075117760361.html

THE WEEK AHEAD:

PALESTINIAN UNIFICATION ISSUE:

When the great announcement was made of the 'unification government' for the PA, I said we would have to wait to see if anything really came of this!

Announcing something and actually accomplishing it are often two very different events.

At that time, Hamas was scared to death of losing it's big supporter, Syria and so they went running back to their point of origin, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

The MB was more than willing to take Hamas back under its wing just as long as Hamas realized the MB was going to call the shots from that point on.

When they were desperate to land, knowing the Syrian home base was in question, they agreed to anything the MB asked of them.

As for Fatah; they too were desperate!

The paranoia was running deep after the PA papers were disclosed to the public.

Abbas was as confused and worried about events in the Middle East as anyone else in power was and the idea of the MB, the Mother Ship, providing some degree of predictability was just what he was looking for.

What is now apparent, it was to many of us from the beginning, is the Devil is in the details.

Imagine that!!!

The panic level is leveling off for both Hamas and Fatah and the 'concept' they agreed to in Egypt has details they both don't like.

So; is this 'deal' going to fall apart?

It would be very embarrassing for the MB to have this turn into just another 'good idea' in the Middle Eastern history of " good ideas'.

Both Hamas and Fatah will get the phone call and undoubtedly the message they better agree to at least appear to reconcile their differences quickly!!

The MB has too much at stake in Egypt to have their first big political success fall apart; especially before the elections are held in Egypt.

Look for some level of hand holding to take place sometime this week.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011619174455513476.html

TURKEY AND SYRIA RIFT:

Read between the lines in this story.

Don't lose site of the fact Turkey has announced they are going to distribute 'aid' on the Syrian side of the border!

Remember Turkey hinted to opening a ' Safe Zone' on Syrian land.

Pushing 'aid' into Syria is step two in executing this process.

Step one: Announce you are thinking about conducting an 'operation'.

Step two: Incrementally begin to execute the mission you threatened you would do.

Here is a danger point of the whole Syrian revolt.

The closer Syrian regular units get to the Turkish border, the greater the odds of someone shooting at someone from the other side.

If the Turkish 'aid' vehicles come under fire, then Turkey could easily say, "we must establish the Safe Zone in order to protect the entire relief process".

Assad is a fool, but he is not insane!

He understands the peril of having his military conducting operations virtually on the Turkish border.

Close contact of two very nervous militaries can be a very dangerous event.

The people who would like to see the whole Syrian revolt escalate could very easily 'spark' an event.

Who?

 The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / SMB / that's who?

This could be the last few days Assad has to gain control of this event.

If the border becomes a point of contention, then Syria's problems will explode.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201161918155641645.html

THE DANGER IS YEMEN:

Who is wining in Yemen?

If you said the Terrorist, you would be correct!

The military in Yemen is more concerned with holding on to the Capital and the current government than defeating an Enemy that is virtually taking over the South.

One crisis at a time is typically too much for Yemen, but to have two, well you finish the thought train here.

Many complex issues about Yemen could be reviewed, but the bottom line is simple.

Yemen is quickly  becoming the new Afghanistan / Pakistan / border hideout.

The answers for the problems in Yemen are far too complex to be worked out anytime soon.

Saudi has their hands in the event, but the GCC is somewhat preoccupied  holding on to the Gulf States and trying to bring on new members.

Yemen has all the ingredients to be a long term problem, much worse than it has been, much like Somalia.

  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13830428          

SAUDI AND THOSE DAMN WOMEN DRIVERS:

On the surface, the whole issue of Women driving around the capital might seem not really news worthy, but I can assure you, to the Royal Family it's a HUGE issue!!!

The real issue in Saudi has been and will continue to be the Royal Family trying to keep the Fundamentalist happy and at the same time not being seen as the suppressors of modern social normalcy.

When you stack that on top of the East Coast Shi issues, Saudi has it's royal hands full.

Driving cars in Saudi is not an issue of Women's rights.

It's the issue of once again being seen as a repressive government in a area of the world rocked by a drive for civil liberties.

Women driving cars is quickly turning into Vendor's setting themselves on fire in Tunisia.

Does this mean the Women in Saudi are looking for gas cans to light themselves on fire?

NO!

It's the analogy the Socialist Revolutionaries will make that counts.

Iran will tie this ' Royal mindset' in with the Shi suppression issue.

Saudi sees anything that happens in or around them as a threat!

Paranoia runs deep in Saudi now days.

 http://www.debka.com/article/21038/                                                    

IRAN AND THE JOKE OF THE WEEK!

So, it finally comes out.

Iran is not looking for the development of nuclear weapons and the Russians have promised this?

What Iran has done a good job of doing is talking about anything and everything other then the pending social problems they know are coming to their cities and towns.

Not talking about the ' Tunisian Virus' doesn't mean it will not show up.

What is apparent, at least for now, is Iran's desire to exploit a 'distraction' somewhere in the Middle East has been limited.

Going to meetings and hanging out with world leaders is a form of distraction.

The ' Mad Genie' giving incoherent  speeches, something he is good at, will not change the fate of Iran.

Iran is watching events in Syria hourly and Syria remains topic number one.

Assad is rearranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic and Iran knows it.

What does Iran do to prevent this or what happens in Iran when Assad falls?

That is the question we should all be working on.

http://rt.com/politics/ahmadinejad-medvedev-sco-nuclear/

THE SYRIAN JOKE OF THE DAY!

 For Rami Makhlouf to announce he is going to dedicate his life to charity causes is not only laughable, but it's actually just sick!

I am always completely flabbergasted when I hear of some absolute Thug, Gangster, suddenly declaring they are taking the highroad.

You can always tell when these dirt bags are in trouble, real trouble; they suddenly start turning over a new leaf.

This Monster has made a fast fortune off the blood of the Syrian people thanks to his cousin Assad and his family.

Perhaps what is even more frightening are the people who actually think low life's like Makhlouf are capable of becoming decent  members of society.

Makhlouf smell the end coming soon and he is now trying to do damage control.

The people of Syria will not forget and they will not forgive!

What this does show us is just how worried the 'inner circle' of the ruling government is becoming.

For all the talk of 'everything is fine and a few thugs are the real problem', Assad and his band of thieves are realizing the end is near.

Don't underestimate what this announcement from Makhlouf really means.

Assad doesn't. 

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011617104839976447.html

SO WHERE DOES TURKEY GO FROM HERE WITH SYRIA?

Assad may not be acting like he is getting the message when Turkey talks, but I would bet he hears them loud and clear.

Stack this on top of his Brother chewing his ear and then at the same time Iran gives him tons of advice and that advice has probably now turned into ultimatums.

The picture I have been trying to paint for over two weeks now is a simple one.

Assad is running out of options and friends.

Turkey turning their back on him, and I'm not convinced that has happened past the point of no return yet,  must give him a feeling of total desperation. 

Assad may be praying for 'status quo' and everyday his forces only manage to murder a few of his citizens probably seems like a good day.

What I find remarkable are the nations that are still privately wishing and probably praying Syria calms down and Assad stays in power.

Most understand what the alternative is and that weighs on their minds more than the death toll.

I can't say that I agree with that theory, but the world is a very imperfect place and can get much worse.

Syria will set the course for Lebanon and Iran and as such it will set the fate of near term future for the whole region.

That is why most nations simply wish this event would just go away.

It is not going to.

It is going to get worse and I fear much worse.

Sometimes, the only news is bad news and bad news must be dealt with.

If a regional, sectarian war is about to unfold, and I'm not sold that has to happen, then minimizing the damage is a critical goal.

If a regional war based on Iran's inability to stabilize it's future is about to happen, the event I really fear, then again we must minimize the results.

No nation wants a war in the Middle East right now, but sticking our heads in the sand and praying it all goes away is far more dangerous than talking about the horror of such a war.