IRAN  CONTINUES  TO  DESTABILIZE

A few interesting stories here that indicate more storm clouds are forming on
the horizon for Iran.

 The second  link below tells the story of how the youth of Iran is getting ready for
round two of  protest in Iran.

 Sound baseline infrastructure being prepared to insure communications and
probably pre set plans incase their communications are disrupted.

Short version; the youth is preparing for the 'Virus' to be launched on Iran.

 It's important to see how much Iran is willing to invest as they try to stop
this cyber movement.

They know the social networks will be their downfall.

Like I've been saying, they know the 'Tunisian Virus' is coming!!

 The other two stories  show just how much the relationship  between Ahmadinejad and
Khamenei continues to fall apart.

 
 As I said in one of my post last week, Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are Iranian
Nationalist supported by their Persian roots!

 Khamenei knows this and he knows things are about to get worse in Iran; thus the rift is growing wider.

 Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are both well aware of what is at stake for not only themselves, but Iran.

 I still believe Ahmadinejad and Mashaei will side with the pending
demonstrators thus positioning themselves as the alternative  to  Khamenei and the ' old religious zealots'.

 Sounds like a stretch I know, but they have limited options given Khamenei
owns the real power in Iran.

 What they do have going for them is a very young, nationalistic military
that may not follow the orders of old men who they have very little in common with.

 Iran is about to be even more interesting then it has been and thus much
more dangerous.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/05/201156113955925329.html

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/05/05/dissent-lives-iranian-cyberspace-despite-regimes-attempt-crackdown/

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/khamenei-tells-ahmadinejad-reinstate-intelligence-chief-or-resign-1.360267?localLinksEnabled=false



IS ASSAD WINNING?

Baniyas looks to be a major target for Friday Prayer Demonstration Suppression!

The events of the past week have knocked Syria down a few notches on the news coverage.

Early this week, I talked to a very good friend who still lives in the Middle East.

He has forgotten more about how the Middle East really works than most ‘book writers’ have ever understood.

As we were talking I asked him a very basic question and I was surprised and frankly concerned by his answer.

I asked him if he thought Assad would stay in power and he said yes!!!!

I must tell you, that was not the answer I thought he would give me and I am still working with him on why he believes that.

The trouble is, I have always trusted in his judgment and I’m struggling with why I can’t agree with him now.

Until he and I finish talking through a few additional details on Syria, I can’t stand behind my prediction Assad will fall, but I want to.

Here may be the issue I  have to come to grips with.

The West really doesn’t want him to fail.

The verbal ‘outrage’ against Assad’s actions has been heard, but I fear he is getting a nonverbal message, actions or the lack there of, from the same countries that makes him believe he can press on.

For two weeks now I have read editorials by prominent writers talking to the basic issue of Israel and ‘others’ and  a stance of, “better the devil you know then the devil you don’t know”.

Ok, this is where I have a real problem with this theory.

It will be the people of Syria that will spill their blood for the sake of gaining their freedom.

In my humble opinion, if the West does not get behind them,  it will not be forgotten.

So, what does ‘get behind them’ mean?

I have talked about the danger of openly supporting the opposition given the ties of Assad to Iran and Iran’s desperate attitude to keeping Syria as its proxy.

Open kinetic weapons support is out of the question, but letting the opposition have a sanctioned ‘safe zone’ in Jordan is not out of the question.  

A ‘safe zone’ is a place where ‘leadership’ can exist without the fear of being bombed, shot ect.. ect..

In the cold war, it was called ‘leadership in exile’.

It’s the Syrian Opposition’s version of having a Benghazi.

Is this impossible to do?

NO!

Does this need to happen?

Something needs to happen and hear is why.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is going to take the lead with the Syrian resistance and in fact they are already well on their way.

Now, I am not a fool and I realize we could do a Libyan / NATO support mission and in the end the people of Syria will probably go with a semi fundamentalist form of government anyway.

We are close to a “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” scenario, but to do nothing is to guarantee failure not only in Syria but in the Middle East.

So, let’s wrap up by going back to the beginning of this post.

I am afraid the West is simply sitting on the sidelines almost wishing the Syrian event will fix itself.

This is sending Assad a message to continue or even increase his tyrannical purge of the protestors.

Syria is not going to end up a stabilized country by the rest of the world watching on TV.

It’s not going to get better by saying “harsh words” every few days on TV.

My friend may be right; Assad may survive, but if he does, events in the Middle East and North Africa, perhaps all of Central Africa, will only get worse.

Iran will have a green light to absolutely crush any glimmer of  a ‘Tunisian Virus’ inside Iran.

They  will take the offence in Bahrain and in Saudi.

There are no easy answers here, but we are at a turning point.

We can not simply watch events unfold in Syria from the sidelines.

Taking action against UBL was  a bold statement that showed the world the US can and will do what it needs to do when it needs to do it.

That mindset may need to be repeated.



THE PALESTINIAN YOUTH MOVEMENT

Most speculate this movement is the real driving force behind Hamas and 

Fatah announcing they are ' one team' now! 

Ironic given Hamas beat these kids senseless in Gaza back in March.

To think that both Hamas and Fatah are now so worried about losing control of the PA cause that they would hold hands is an indication of just how powerful this movement can become.

The idea that Hamas didn't get guidance from Iran, Syria and Assad are a little 

preoccupied right now, would be a huge mistake. 

From Iran's viewpoint the ability to deflect the 'virus' as it consumes 

Syria and starts to lurk around the edges of Iran is an alluring idea. 

The concept of the Israeli / PA issue becoming the focal point of the public 

consciousness in the Middle East again is exactly what Iran / Syria needs right 

now. 

Iran and Syria have been safely existing for years by simply keeping the 

entire region focused on the PA statehood  issue. 

The classical ‘create an external threat and keep the population focused on it”. 

The 'Tunisian Virus' has stripped Iran and Syria of that protective shield. 

Iran will do anything to redirect the attention of the Muslim youth. 

Thus; supporting, indirectly, the unification process is absolutely 

Necessary and if the Palestinian Youth Movement makes a move on Hamas and Fatah, then Iran will back the winner!

The problem is this movement, attached article, is not concerned with what 

is good for Iran or Syria. 

It clearly doesn't even care about the opinions of Hamas and Fatah. 

They have fashioned themselves after the events in Tunisia and Egypt for a 

reason. 

They are the same group of people; Young, educated and hungry for a better world. 

 SIDE NOTE:

An interesting theory is taking shape over this whole topic of the future of the PA.

Rumor has it that Hamas reached out to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood knowing that Assad was possibly going to fall.

Yep, the classic doubles cross.

Ya gotta love international politics!

There is no way this has taken place without Hezbollah catching wind of it.

Hezbollah may have to do the same thing if they wish to hold on to Lebanon; and I don’t think they are going to be able to do that! 

So, back to what Hamas may have pulled off.

Rumor has it Hamas was told by the SMB ( Syrian Muslim Brotherhood) they needed to work their issues with Egypt.

Egypt laid down the edict they wanted to see a unification process between Hamas and Fatah and they would be willing to open up the checkpoints into Gaza if Hamas would reach out to Fatah.

Deal Done!!

 I’ve said this time and time again.

Every day I grow more and more convinced the end state of this 'Tunisian 

Virus' is a Cairo 'event' in Israel. 

It comes at the hands of the new Palistinian Youth Movement, supported by Iran, covertly, or it comes at the hands of the new unified PA government.

To Israel it doesn’t really matter; “ pick your poison”. 

How does Israel head that off? 

How does Iran shape this event to execute just the way they want it? 

UBL may be dead, but the Middle East is on Fire!!! 

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/05/201153101231834961.htm 

WHO TAKES THE LEAD?

Trick question!

Who is going to take the place / take over for UBL?

If you guessed the Muslim Brotherhood, you are correct!

If you didn't guess the MB, then back to class for you!

Let's put this in perspective.

Long before UBL was even a glimmer in his Dad's eye, the MB was attempting to change the course of history for all Muslims in the world.

The MB will rewrite what UBL stood for and why he did what he did to fit their future needs.

Their vision of the future is the only one that counts to them and UBL was nothing more than a good soldier in their movement with a tendency to go rouge.

He set the modern-day 'revolution' in motion and the MB will insure his actions were not in vain.

But, make no mistake the MB

will insure the history books show UBL died a Martyr in their cause.

To put it simply, the MB will assimilate UBL and his actions.

Those splinter organizations that formed after UBL's foundation will ether rebel and create inner conflicts in places like Pakistan or they too will fold into the greater movement of the MB.

This will not be that hard to do given most of them are Sunni at their foundation.

So why is this so important at this moment in history?

Take  a real good look at what is going on with the 'Tunisian Virus'.

Who stands to take power in Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Algeria, Tunisia ect.. ect..???

Yep.. the MB!!!

the stuggle between the Sunni and the Shi is simply a matter of superior numbers.

With a four to one advantage in total numbers, a sectarian struggle between the Sunni and the Shi has only one conclusion and the MB could easily become the 21st century face of the Sunni faith.  

So; when you hear people sitting around worrying about who will be the next UBL, look at them and say, "you don't understand what you are up against"!





NOW WHAT?

All day long the media has covered the death of UBL  and has done a good job of posing the real question, “what does it mean”?

Answers have ranged from his movement has been dealt a possible mortal blow to nothing will really change.

The old cliché of “only time will tell” is probably as good an answer as any.

What I’ve not heard a great deal of detail on is how  his death has tactically impacted his movement.

Lets look at a few facts about disruption operations and the second order effects they usually have.

1. Lets assume, and the press has even talked about this today, the Team that carried out the mission was able to recover valuable information from the compound.

It’s is very common for the followers or partners of a criminal movement to be  rendered ineffective for a period of time after a successful operation on one of it’s members or especially it’s leadership.

Why is this?

Simple; the other members don’t know what information was obtained and they always assume the worst!

What information did UBL have with him and do his followers know what that information was?

Criminals run paranoid and his followers are paranoid beyond belief right now.

“ I’m next”, becomes the overriding concern for all of those that were in contact with him.

Place that paranoia on top of news reports saying “actionable information was obtained from the compound” and I would bet you there is full fledge panic in many parts of the network.

This will not last forever, but it will last long enough for the agencies searching for his followers to take additional actions if at all possible.

In other words, the operation creates a limited window of additional opportunities.

That is where we stand as of today.

What follow on events or intelligence can be developed and how fast can it be analyzed?  

All of this keeps UBL’s followers off balance and on the Defense, we hope!!

After this period is over, the real issues becomes, did his network have “mission ready” operations that can be executed quickly?

It’s a question that must be part of the overall process being conducted right now.

So, did UBL have missions ready to execute and did his follower have contingency plans for his capture or death?

Again, there seem to be several theories on these two questions and opinions are all over the map.

What needs to happen is what I speculate is just what is happening right now.

We must anticipate he did have missions ready to execute or at least close enough to execution that they can be put into motion.

We must assume that some of  his network  had planned for the event of something happening  to him.

The theory of “plan for the worst and hope for the best” applies here.

This is where the paranoia factor of his followers not knowing what information was obtained from his compound comes into play.

Very well disciplined units might be able to fight off the paranoia and push to execute an attack.

That explains why the US government didn’t wait to warn everyone to be careful starting as soon as the announcement came out.

The other thing that should be considered is the traditional ‘mourning period’ for his followers.

If many of the devout believers are true to their faith, they will mourn him for several days and then set out to avenge him.

Last but surly not least, we need to think about what we commonly call the ‘ low hanging fruit’ members, or what I like to call the “ Wanna Be” groups.

Finding actionable information on a ‘lone wolf’ mental patient who is so upset over UBLs death that he or she just starts killing anyway they can is nearly impossible to do!

In reality, for the foreseeable future these are the ones to be truly worried about.

One thing is for sure; the chapter of UBL as an individual is over.

The chapter of UBL the Martyr has just started.



THE WEEK AHEAD

ISRAEL:

Last week was not good news for Israel and the repercussions will reflect on all of us who look at the Middle East for Oil.

Egypt announcement the checkpoints to Gaza will be opened did not sit well with Israel and this week will give us an indication of how they plan to respond to this announcement.

Most of us realize that talk is often cheap in the Middle East and the talk of Egypt opening these checkpoints and sending ‘security teams’ into Gaza  could be just an extension of this opinion.

Israel still maintains a ‘working’ relationship with the Egyptian Military and until the MB forces the Egyptian Military to change, this relationship will help head off potential flare ups.

SYRIA:

Assad made every bad possible decision he could possibly make last week shy of using his air force to bomb his own cities!

More and more rumors of Iranian intervention are showing up in the open press and blogs.

As I have stated for weeks now, Iran can not afford to have Assad and Syria fall to the MB or any other Sunni movement.

The worse things get in Syria, the more Iran may choose truly desperate options to counter the event.

Look for Syria to continue blaming the March 14^th movement in Lebanon for problems in Syria.

Look for the Sunni of Lebanon to call for Assad to stop pointing his finger at Lebanon and look for them to bring more media attention to the violence in Syria.

Look for the MB to position themselves as the potential leaders of resistance in Syria; an issue that will infuriate the Iranians and Assad.

Egypt:

Egypt pops back on my radar  this week.

The MB is about to decide to shoot for a larger slice of the pie in the next election.

There will be no more talk of ’30 percent’.

The new target will be 50 percent.

That may very well be overlooked by most of the Western world, but it should not be.

50 percent can easily become over 50 percent and over 50 percent is a ‘majority’ elected in an ‘Democratic’ election.

Do you remember the 2006 Hamas election results?

Bad news  for the West and Israel.

It’s May and the temperatures are going to go way up in the Middle East.

Hot days turn into violent nights!

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FROM THIS PAST WEEK

The articles listed below cover two major topics that pose a significant challenge for all of those interested in the Middle East.

1.  The so called reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah and what it means to the rest of the world / Israel.

2. Syria and the real possibility of a civil war.

As you read the first two articles, pay close attention to the issue of Egypt's involvement in the Hamas / Fatah issue.

I have no doubt the potential new leaders in Egypt are going to change the relationship with Israel and their interaction in the PA issue, so soon after their own period of upheaval, is puzzling to many.

 As I continued to read, I found two topics very disturbing.

A. Egypt announcing it will send a 'Peacekeeping Team' to Gaza!

B. Egypt is going to open the checkpoints into Gaza!  

Two very bold and emotional moves that I seriously doubt Israel was consulted on.

How Israel will react to all three of these events this  week, the two above and the agreement between Hamas and Fatah, will be very important to the near future of the region.

On Positive note; I don't believe for a moment Hamas and Fatah / PA / are going to hold hands and dance in the rain.

The problem will be the amount of damage they can do in a short period of time.

If you read the third article attached, you will begin to realize the Israelis are

preparing for the arrival of the ' Tunisian Virus'.

The PA youth has been demanding a unification of Hamas and Fatah for several months for the simple purpose of collectively marching on Israel!

As I said before, Iran would support this process for the simple reason it applies pressure on a region of the Middle East other than Syria and Iran.

Egypt's part in making this happen is nothing more than the MB showing they are going to shape the future of Egypt.

It all spells very bad news for the rest of the world and the price of oil in the near future.

You let the speculators think Cairo scale events may be about to take place in the West Bank and Gaza and the price of Oil will soar.

2. SYRIA:

The last story I have attached to this post talks to an dangerous sign inside of Syria.

For several days now I have been watching the story of large numbers of Syrian military defections and the insuring gun battle shortly there after.

I have no doubt the additional tanks that were dispatched to Deraa were a direct result of unit level defections.  

When Military organizations begin to fire on themselves, Civil War is close at hand.

We in the US know this, but more importantly Iran knows this!

So, the drag race is on..

Can Iran get the PA issue into the streets of Israel before Syria breaks down into a Civil War?

Let's see that this week will bring!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/palestinian-prime-minister-hamas-fatah

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/egypt-revolution-players-palestinian-pieces

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=218274

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-if-the-rumours-and-conspiracies-are-true-then-president-assads-regime-is-on-the-road-to-civil-war-2275155.html

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011429155947718117.html