AMLO AND THE CELAC 

TRUE COLORS FLYING! 

Back to the issue of Mexico and it’s leader, who seems to be heading in a direction the US is not concerned with. Have I been down this road before? Yes. Is some of what I’m about to say going to seem like, “old news”? Yes. Does that equate into, “nothing to worry about here”? Let me tell this story and you be the judge of what is important. 

CELAC:

The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. What is it? Sounds harmless right? Have you ever heard the acronym leading off the evening news? Probably not. I could write for hours on what the history of this group means to the US and the nations of Latin America and the Caribbean, but in order to save time, let me give you my typical, down and dirty. To the US and some of it’s allies, CELAC is a Communist, Socialist, Revolutionary based concept with one goal in mind; pushing the US influence out of the region. Who might support such a concept? I’ll get to that, but be thinking Dragons in the meantime. Okay, the counter viewpoint. To the social Revolutionaries of Latin America and the Caribbean, CELAC is an attempt to get out from under the thumb of the US. So, it sounds like the two viewpoints are not that far apart. Now, to be clear, not all the supporters of CELAC see the US as the enemy. Some see it as an opportunity to make economic gains, yet keep a Democratic, free market concept. To the US, this group of nations provide a real opportunity to influence what is taking place inside the minds of the CELAC movement. Is that a polite way of saying, “spies”, maybe. If someone is pushing the CELAC concept while DC believes it’s a threat to the US’s status in the region, you can bet the IC hears everything! By the way, CELAC advocates love to talk! 

If you are asking yourself, “why did this issue of CELAC come up”, I’ll tell you. Who has taken on the revitalization of the CELAC movement as it’s Champion? Yep, AMLO! 

https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/mexico-takes-action-on-coup-in-bolivia-and-bolsters-celac/

Hugo and CELAC: 

When the concept of CELAC fist got going, who was it’s biggest supporter? Hugo Chavez. When Chavez died, the movement seemed to slow dramatically. Besides losing Hugo as the Boss, CELAC suffered from the US countering the movement, as it had others in the past. Inroads were archived with several key nations in the region by the US and the energy behind CELAC slowed significantly. 

Then, along comes the newest, “Revolutionary” in the region; AMLO. Hugo was seen as one of the Founding Fathers, but now, AMLO sees himself as the leader of the, “Big Brother” for Latin America and the Caribbean. ( See the link above for his statement about, Big Brother. 

AMLO’s vision:

Here comes that, down that road before, issue I mentioned at the beginning. What happens when some of AMLO’s economic experts openly publish statement about him being bad for business in Mexico? https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/hostility-is-scaring-away-investment/

What is AMLO’s vision of Mexico’s future? Does he call himself a,”Revolutionary” just for the drama? AMLO taken up the Mantle of CELAC, yet the US President openly states they are good friends and he likes the guy; key word here, openly! AMLO appears to have caved to the issue of illegal immigration /  Refugees, you pick, and the US’s concerns with Mexico’s lack of support. AMLO went along with the new trade agreement, USMCA and that made the US happy. Is that all the US is worried about? “Keep the flow of people into the US under some appearance of control, like the trade agreement we showed you and everything between us is okay”? AMLO is a smart cookie. His organized march on Mexico City after he lost the elections was a masterful operation. Here is the story of that lost through the eyes of  Aljazeera.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/mexico-president-elect-amlo-lost-2006-elections-due-rigging-181005051815702.html

 At face value, its appears the Mexican Revolutionary President is getting along with the Gringos in DC just fine.

Is AMLO playing the US? It’s a question I ask myself all the time. Let me give you an example of why this question keeps popping up in my head. Mexico appears to be addressing the issue of illegal migration / Refugees / you pick again. Mexico appears to address the immediate concerns of DC, but then what? The drug market is out of control in the US and lives are being lost not just in Mexico, but in the US and honestly, all over the world. What actions has AMLO taken to stem the tide of this drug world? What has he done to address the fact the cartels in Mexico have become Terrorist Organizations? Let me make this really ugly. Does he want to? Does he truly want the violence in Mexico to stop? Hugs? Is that it? Is that his plan? He says it is. Does he actually want the violence in Mexico to get worse? What does a true Revolution require.Social unrest and a collapsed economy, that’s what a revolution needs. He won’t stop the terrorist cartels. He has his own economic expert openly stating he is bad for economic growth. Does any of this worry you? Well, at least, now you know why I continue to ask myself, “ is AMLO playing the US”? If he sees Mexico as the, “Big Brother” of Latin America and the Caribbean and he now heads the CELAC organization, an organization that is designed to counter the US, then just what is his vision of Mexico’s future? At the beginning of this post, I asked you to keep the word, Dragon” on your mind. Let me tell you why I asked you to do so.

CELAC and China:

There is this thing called the CELAC and China Initiative. Just the title should set off alarm bells in DC, but who knows. The classic, BRI, Bridge and Road Initiative, is once again the doorway to China’s influence in a region. BRI, what many in the business world, mostly the Western Business World are revering to as a money trap. Is Beijing interested in the economic opportunities of Latin America? How could it not be? Is China interested in weakening the US’s status in the world? How could it not be? Is China’s interest in CELAC a two pronged approach? Yep, how could it not be? Who knows this? DC? Yes, at least you would think. If you are a true socialist Revolutionary, would not Communist China be a great place to build a relationship, especially  when that potential partner has a ton of money they are eager to spend?  Xi visited Latin America in 2014 and his government has been all over the region for the past decade. Is Beijing out to promote the status of the US in Latin America and the Caribbean? Just a few days ago, The Chines Embassador to Mexico made a public announcement stating China was putting 600 million dollars into AMLO’s pet project; a new oil refinery. Here is the problem, Mexico claimed they didn’t know anything about it. China playing Mexico to get at DC? Maybe. AMLO’s government, not wanting to admit, “outside” money for the project after tell the US, Mexico didn’t need any help? This is an interesting story. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-china-refinery/chinese-banks-providing-financing-for-mexican-refinery-ambassador-idUSKBN1ZC2FM

Where is AMLO taking Mexico and is it in a direction that is conducive to the US? Should he be worried about that statement? I can tell you what he better be worried about, and it is actually a two part statement. 1. He better pray the terrorist cartels don’t create an event on US soil that leads to true US anger. 2. He better be careful walking into the Dragon’s Lair. If he thinks the US has manipulated the region, he’s not seen anything yet.

IMMIGRATION 

AN OPEN ENDED CONVERSATION.  

Judge Messitte has ruled against the State of Texas’ stance of no longer allowing, “refugees” into the state. Messitte states, Governor Abbot’s stance is not good for the overall public interest! Is this a big thing, or is just another day in ever changing world of the United States? What’s that old saying about straw and the Camel’s back? Is this ruling straw? Does anyone know when one side of this argument over immigration believes they have had enough? How do you judge when that moment in time comes? Does it build over a period of time, or does some monumental event take place that changes one side’s view to the point something breaks?  What is the “public’s interest” on the issue of “refugees”. What is the difference between a “Refugee”....... an Illegal or just anyone else who shows up because things are just not good enough to stay where they came from? Yes, there are legal differences between the two categories, but does that resonate with Farmer Joe, or Joe Sixpack? Refugees. Refugees from what and do the people who live outside the large cities and their suburbs truly understand the topic of, “Refugees”? Better yet, do they even care? Here is the reality of this conversation. Like everything else in the US, this topic is just another political / ideological/ football. Here is the problem, and it’s a very real problem. The people of “flyover country”, well, they don’t have time for political footballs. What they do have time for is perception, and that issue of perception is feeding a divide in the US that could reach crisis level. So, is it big deal Judge Messitte, appointed by President Clinton and the guy who when nuts over the name of the Washington Redskins, has shot down the Texas Governor’s decision? Yes, yes it is. 

Refugees:

I’ve been down this road several times, but as a guy who has been all over this world, I think I have the right to answer the question of, ‘what is a Refugee”? Was the US made from “Refugees”? That’s the core argument you will get form those who support letting everyone come to the US. Is there some validity to the stance? Yes, but with a huge caveat. Those that left Europe for reasons of oppression were the minority. Most of the people who came to the US did so for opportunity, opportunities they didn’t have in Europe. Is that a “Refugee”? Was the story of oppression the real reason the US was settled, or did it just make good history? The truth is, most people came to the land now called the US, with the exception of the slaves, for the chance to make a better life. So, is that it? Is that what this current, “Refugee” issue is truly all about? Are people coming here for a better life? How many of you have actually seen the investigative process for determining, “Refugee” status? Better yet, how many politicians are knowledgeable on the process? Remember, it’s a football, not a fact finding mission. 

What’s the magic number: 

If you ask those who support the issue of “Refugees”, “What is the magic number? When has the US allowed the right amount of ‘Refugees’ in”? Have you ever heard any of the supporters this question? I am sure someone has, but I don’t know what they response is. In the world today, we are coming up on 8 BILLION people. In China alone it’s reported that over 300 MILLION people still live in caves. No footnotes here. Just look it up. Just how many, “Refugees” are there? Yes, the US government has strict guidelines on how to vet a, “Refugee”, but it seems both political parties in the US feel this process is too slow and too restrictive. Football.....think football! In 2018, the State of Texas took in more, “Refugees” than any other state in the US. Has Texas done it’s duty? If Messitte believes the public interest is still not being served, then how many more should Texas let in? What’s the plan? Oh ya, let me touch on a topic that we seem to forget about. Is it true the organizations that support, “Refugees” have been caught coaching the, “Refugees” on what to say in the interview process? Are there other agendas there? You bet. 

The Refugee value: 

Many of the groups that support the, “Refugee” process are religious based. Three of the groups that filed with Messitte are just that. Why? Let me give you two schools of thought and you decide what one is more plausible. 1. It’s the word of God to help others in time of need. 2. The population of Europe and the US who attend Church has been decreasing rapidly and bringing these people in is a way to Slow that statistic. Save them and they will follow you. Sound ugly? Yes. Are some of you going to stop reading my post based on this statement? Remember, I said, I will let you decide. Is the, “Refugee” issue based on self interest? With the Churches, I won’t say, but with the US politicians, Football....think Football! 

What value do the, “Refugees” bring to the US? Future voters? Doctors, Lawyers....oh no, no  “Refugee” Lawyers! Cheap labor? Do they bring morals and values that mirror the US? Okay, now there is a comment I deliberately made. If you forcibly change the demographics of an area’s population, do the values and morals change? Was that not true of Boston when the Irish came into the US as, “Refugees”? Yes, yes they were, “Refugees”, economic, “Refugees” who provided cheap labor! At the core of the, “Refugee” issue, one question stands clear. Does increasing the number of, “Refugees” into the US make the US a better nation?  Note: Pay attention to the fact I titled this post with the words, “ Open Conversation”! 

The Cost of Refugees:

Yesterday, a Mexican Drug Terrorist Cartel member was found inside the US along the border with Mexico. He had been shot several times and had to be flown to a Hospital. http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2020/01/blood-trail-leads-to-suspected-mexican.html
Who pays this bill? The Mexican Conciliate? Do the cartel members have healthcare? Yes, I know, the compassionate thing to do is give this Terrorist care. Multiple gun shot wounds and helicopter airlift? Do you have an idea of what that cost? Was this guy a, “Refugee”? You can bet he will make the argument, if he lived. If the US becomes the, refugee camp for the world, who pays the bills? You know the answer. Just how much compassion can the US economy stand? As the cost grows, Is the US public willing to continue this concept? If so, what part of the population? The large Cities, Universities, fly over country? Back to the begging of this conversation. How divided is the US on the issue of, “Refugees”?

When we hear the word cost, most of us think in terms of dollars. Let’s take a look at another category on the topic of cost. I have a good friend who has tried for nearly two years to have a civil court case heard. It’s a case where a gold digging women took the money of my friend’s dying Father. Every time he heads for a hearing, it’s kicked down the road. Why? Because this District Judge is overrun with illegal’s criminal cases and criminal cases take priority over civil issues.  Now, to those who love the idea of, “ Refugees” being allowed to flow into the US, almost all would say, “Undocumented”, a word they use, “ people have their rights inside the US”. Rights? The rights provided by the US Constitution? Are they talking about the universal rights of Humans? It doesn’t really matter. Their stance is this. If the person steps foot on US soil, it’s their right to have every privilege and, “right” of a US citizen. You don’t believe me? Have you every listen to those who support, “Undocumented Persons”? What is the perception of my friend, a person who spent his whole life in Law Enforcement? Should his case be heard before the, “ Undocumented’s”? If it’s a criminal case, my friend said, “No”, his case should not have priority. Sacrifice for the sake of trying to hold together a legal system that is strained by bureaucratic procedures and the crimes committed by People who are not here legally. Sound selfish? It sounds like just another example of the US population sacrificing for the actions of others, others who are not from here.

Danger: 

Now, I realize by this point, some of you think there is a Rebel Flag and perhaps a Swastika hanging in my house. By the way, the Rebel flag is based upon the word, “Rebellious”, you know, the word the US is founded upon. We were, “Rebels” when we founded this nation and we were Rebels when we attempted to tear the nation apart in a Civil War. Rebels, those who come to the conclusion they must fight for what they believe in, even when they don’t want to. Who is right and who is wrong, when a rebellious issue cannot be avoided? That depends on what side you take, and that folks has been true for over 5,000 years.

Is there a danger of the US becoming a rebellious society? Is the issue of, “refugees” and “ Undocumented” people dividing the nation to the point of violence? Are these two issues just straw? How strong is the US’s Camel’s back? Is one political ideology disingenuous in their sympathy for the, Unfair” part of the world? I love that word, “Unfair”....as in, “Not fair”. Is the other party in the US really not that upset over the topic, but pretends to be? Is that why nothing seems to happen? How many times have we seen politician’s lips flapping as they make the sounds of, immigration reform? Who’s paying attention to just how wide the divide over the topic of “Refugees....Undocumented” people is becoming? Texas’s Governor was told no by a federal judge in another part of the US. Just how much longer before the straw gets too heavy? What happens if the Governor of Texas informs Judge Messite, “go pound sand” In the meantime, my friend sits and waits for the Southern County District Jude in Texas to find a few minutes when he is not working illegal...sorry..... “Undocumented” criminal cases? I watched a Camel get hit struck by a truck in Saudi once. It was not a pretty sight. Maybe that was an Omen?

CHINA AND THE UNAVOIDABLE WAR

I read the article, link attached at the end,  and before I get started, let me just say what a joy it was to finally find out who has been writing some of the better stories for Asia Times. Yes I know, all I had to do is look at the bottom of the articles and I would have learned of Grant Newsham months ago. Having admitted my oversight, it’s now evident Grant is a person worth paying attention to. 

After I finished his story on a war between Taiwan and China, my most resounding fear came back to me. Folks, the US, and whoever else wishes to fight, has a war coming and it’s unlike any war we have seen in the history of the human race. How does it start? I took a shot at that topic in my book,  https://www.amazon.com/SECOND-DARK-AGES-unofficial-Review-ebook/dp/B07YP1LTYM 

What Grant Newsham has accomplished ,so brilliantly, is to provide a realistic glimpse at yet another scenario, leading to a war with China. So, before I dive into this post, let me just say, if you don’t read Grant Newsham’s work, you need to. 

Taiwan: 

I’ve asked this question before on this blog site, but let me ask it again. Is the US willing to fight a war over Taiwan? Newsham paints a very realistic picture of what might force the US and others to enter such a war, but would the people truly follow the government’s lead? When the US entered World War I and II, the nation was divided and as such, it’s logical to assume the US would take on a war with China even with the US population was against the conflict. It’s happened before.

Here is the reality Grant Newsham brings home. Wars don’t just start because both sides decide to have a fight. Most wars start when one side decides they see an advantage from war or they see no option but war. Hint,  the advantage scenario almost always has not negotiation period, or such a period does take place and the passive approach by the opposition emboldens the aggressor. Think about that approach for a minuet and then say the word, Tehran.

Yes, the other side of a conflict has the option of just saying no to the fight and letting the aggressor take what it wants. Grant address this scenario over the issue of Taiwan and does so with dire results. He also brought an issue to the table that cannot be overlooked. I is not afraid to go to war. He and his military commanders may even desire some event that sends a message to the world, “ We have taken the lead”! When Grant mentions Xi’s comments in January of 2019 ,the argument over what stance China is taking is over. I remember reading the translation of that speech and thinking to myself, “here they come”.  Would China start a war over Taiwan? The answer is most likely, yes.

Fight now or fight later: 

If we accept the theory China would be willing to fight a war over Taiwan, a war that could lead to a global war, then shouldn’t we pick the time of that event? If you read my book, you now my theory. The West simply keeps kicking the China conflict down the road until it’s too late. When Grant Newsham argues there is mostly likely no way to avoid this fight, then we need to consider exactly what that means. His recommendation the US and others stand up to China now is exactly the right approach. Here is the fatal flaw in Grant’s statement. The current leadership in DC is too consumed with internal politics to find the unity required to address the China crisis. In the Western corporate world, there is only one goal, breaking into the 1.5 BILLION persons market China represents. Thinking of or even planning for a conflict is not on the radar of those who pay for the political campaigns in the US.

As I said before, Grant Newsham hit’s the nails on the head when he states many in China are itching to show their might to the rest of the world. Nationalism runs high in parts of China, not all parts, but some. This nationalistic stance is spearheaded by Xi’s and many of his military commanders. Folks, that is a recipe for war. So, in the case of Taiwan, here is the ground truth. China is willing to go to war over Taiwan. Taiwan just reflected a President, Thai Ingwen, who demands, “Mainland China” respect Taiwan’s independence. Does this sound like the unloveable object headed towards the unstable object? A little good news here. This story has been going on for a few decades. Did I call that good news? Let me be honest, it may not be good news. The, “ Ah....it’s been going on for ever.....they always talk that way”, viewpoint is another key ingredient for war. China has changed. It’s military has changed drastically. The old, “ ah....bla...bla...bla”, theory is just plain dangerous.

Is there a good time to have a war, a war that could go nuclear? The realty is, the answer is yes. If you look at history, many conflict have started based upon the concept of, “ if we don’t fight them now, we cannot beat them later”. Paradoxically, the two greatest wars of the human race were the result of Progressives simply not wanting to take the hard road to lasting peace. FDR, the King of the Progressive movement, avoided entering WWII and he avoided taking hard actions against the rising power of the Nazis. It wasn’t just FDR. All of Europe wanted to avoid yet another war in Europe and besides, the German build up in the 30s was good for business. Sound familiar? Pay attention to Newsham’s comment about US CEOs.

You can’t wish bad times away. You cant make aggressive leaders and nations into pacifist with nothing more than words. Please, don’t get me started by suggesting economic sanctions can do the job. Take a look at the relationship between Japan and the US In the 1930s. How did that work out? You can make bad leaders and bad times go away with words, but you can use certain words to make sure these people understand where you stand. Newsham is correct in his statement the US should make it clear to China what the US is willing to do if China starts a war anywhere. Stand right in Xi’s face now, while he may still flinch, at least for a few years, or simply anticipate the time is coming when he and his nation will care less if someone stands in their face. Trump’s arm sales to Taiwan, that’s standing in Xi’s face. to the Telatubbies of the Left, that’s the actions of a crazy man and the Dragon, well, I would be it loves the taste of Teletubbies. Susan Thornton, that’s just one of the Teletubbies Newsham makes an exemplar of. Hard times folks. Hard times with no easy answers.

Cracks in the Armor:

I’m fairly certain I’ve gone down this next road before, but here we go.  Just how Nationalistic is China? Just how willing are 1.5 Billion people to go to war, a war that could set China back hundreds of years? Does Xi avoid the Taiwan, US, issue because he fears the public’s wrath? No. So, is the support of the Chinese People an issue that may prevent a war? Xi dosn’t fear the opinion people now, but how about in the future, the near future? Why is the issue of protest in Hong Kong so troublesome to Xi? Why not just go in and crush the issue? Newsham made a comment about ramifications on a global scale if China attacks Taiwan, more importantly, he mentioned something Xi will not admit. China has a growing population of people who have grown addicted to the Capitalistic  lifestyle. Yes, forty years ago, China set out to turn the Capitalistic concept into a weapon. They witnessed the flaws of true Communism, if it was true, in the Soviet Union. The plan became, “use the Western economy and our controlled involvement, to get the world addicted to China and it’s goods”. That planned worked too well. The leadership in Beijing moved so close to the flame of the West, some of the people in China turned into the Capitalistic  Colonialists China despised. Yes folks, there is a virus growing in China. It may be weak, but it continues to mutate and at some point, it will become deadly to Xi and his vision. Remember. I was the one who stated the Arab Spring was a virus. Freedom of thought, freedom of movement and freedom of expression, these are the foundations of humans. The US Founding Fathers got it right and Xi how’s this. China has cracks in it’s armor. They may not change the course of the nation in the near future, but the trend is there and it’s based on something Xi cannons afford to stop; money! China used the weapon of an open market to trap corporate America and others, and it worked. But, when they developed that “virus” they didn’t realize the most common theme of Science Fiction movies. The “Virus” was exposed to it’s own population. What does this mean? How does this explanation of China’s mistake impact a potential war with the US and others? Sorry, here is where the news gets real bad. The one person who knows the Virus is spreading inside of China’s population is Xi and his commanders. In reality, many of his own military’s senior leadership have already been infected. Time is not on Xi’s side. Waiting for Trump to leave office is not the answer. Waiting until the Chinese military is so superior to the US is a timeline too long. The clock is ticking and Xi knows it. Sometimes, you just have to fight! The trick is, be ready for that fight. Don’t be Neville Chamberlain, for that is what Xi is counting on. Stand up...get in his face before it’s too late.




https://www.jpolrisk.com/war-in-the-taiwan-strait-is-not-unthinkable-some-will-lose-more-than-others/

MEXICO. 

IT’S NOT OFF THE RADAR. 

If you follow me, you know my desire to continually asses the stability of Mexico? Why? If the US wants to witness a true Mass Migration, just let Mexico become a true failed state. I’ve been addressing the events in the Middle East for the past week or so, but something just told me I needed to get back on the topic of Mexico. The day to day violence is almost so common place, no one pays attention, with the exception of my friend Jaeson Jones. Whatever it was that compelled me to swing back to my topic of desire must have had good intel. As soon as I checked my standard reading sites, the issue of what I should write towards just about knocked me out of my chair. So, here we go! 

Changing the System: 

It appears Mexico is once again attempting to find a new approach to it’s ever growing violence levels. Has this concept of, “ changing the system”, been tried before? Yep. In fact, every Mexican President in the past 20 years has found a way to, “change the system”, in an effort to make Mexico safer. How many have succeeded? You know the answer. Alright, let me give you a list of the latest changes Mexico City is going to institute. Hint; one of them is more frightening than the rest and I bet you can figure out which one that might be:  ).

1. Mexico is going to change the, “ Culture of Impunity”. My question; whose “Culture”? The political elite who laundry the drug money? Ya...right! 

2. AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION!     How. Now that’s a question the Mexican people may want greater detail on prior to the vote. Will that happen? Don’t hold your breath. 

3. A new criminal code: Wait...what? A new criminal code or amendments to the existing one? The press release said, “ A new criminal code”. Again, do you think the people of Mexico might want to know what “new” criminal code they are going to live under? 

4. New Procedures: That makes sense. If you are going to have a new criminal code, you will most likely need new procedures. Here is one they might want to try. Validate the Law Enforcement agencies. I know, that’s a stretch. Besides, what good are honest Cops when you have a corrupt legal system and government? Maybe that new criminal code will fix that. By the way, do any of the US citizens know how much money was wasted on the programed called the Merida Initiative? Now there was an attempt at “change” in Mexico. 

5. Modify existing laws: Strange. If you have a new criminal code, do you need “modified laws”? What laws will be modified? What are those modifications? Yep. The Mexican people issue agin. 

6. Change the legal framework of the Mexican Attorney General’s Office, to include, “regulations”.  You know, but his point, doesn’t it seem like AMLO is just tying to start all over? Clear the chalkboard and start fresh. Then again, he is a self proclaimed “Revolutionary”. Perhaps this is the next phase of his grand plan for Mexico? Scary? You bet, especially for the Mexican people. 

Well, there you have it. A comprehensive list of all the changes Mexico City is going to implement, all in the name of keeping the people safe. History is excellent teacher. How many tyrannical leaders have implemented vast changes all in the name of, “The people”? 

A few hard facts: 

Mexico’s stability; that’s my point of analysis. What are the indicators that Mexico may fall into a real crisis? When you get into this business, you have one real tool that never seems to fail you. Trends! Trends are events based on facts, facts most governments hate to be seen by their public and facts that make it impossible to come up with yet another political talking point. Here are a few facts that I tracked for Mexico. Here are some numbers no one in Mexico City can sweep under the rug. 

1. The Murder rate in Mexico in 2019 was a record? The first full year of AMLO’s leadership lead to a Murder record! Now there is a fact AMLO would have loved to made go away. Unless, and this is a real concern, unless he needs that level of crisis to implement the real changes his revolutionary vision calls for. Changes to the Constitution? That one really bothers me. 

2. 61K people missing! Let me say that again. 61K people missing. You keep hearing about these unmarked grave sites the Mexican authorities keep finding. Let’s face it; it’s hard to stick a shovel in the ground and not hit a body in Mexico! 61K missing. Let’s go back to my statement about governments trying to paint pictures that avoid the facts. 61K is 50% higher than what AMLO’s government estimated. 50%. what was their, “estimate” based on, other than political posturing? 

3. The, “blame the other guy”, story is back out in Mexico. Calderon turned the Mexican military lose in 2006 and the poor little cartels became fragmented and that lead to all this violence. Really? I am aware Mexico Cities real desire is to have one cartel rule the roost and then task them with keeping all the others in line, along with filling off shore politicians bank accounts. So when President Calderon sicked the military on the cartel his administration was not aligned with, that’s when all hell broke lose? Once again, Mexico City has to divert the facts. 

4. Mexico Economy. Negative growth again and it’s been that way all the way through the first year of Mr. AMLO. Is that the plan? Social disorder and economic ruin = Revolution? 

Okay, let me Summarize. Murder is up....way up. All the laws and rules are changing. The economy is in the tank. What a fist year for Mr. AMLO. Those daily love in press conferences don’t seem to be doing the job. In the meantime, those members of the military and law enforcement who haven’t taken the peso from the cartels, hang their. Necks out there 24 /7/ 365....for now!   The Mexican people struggle to get to work and get paid all while Mexico City finds new ways to make life worse for the sake of, “the people”. 

Tomorrow I jump on AMLO’s actions with those nations that don’t send holiday greetings to Team Trump.  His desires for the future of Mexico better become the topic of conversation in DC or states like Texas will build their own wall and Nancy, well, she can just go back to her multimillion dollar vineyard in California.  Back on the Mexico issue folks. That’s where I’m heading. That is, unless, someone in the Middle East gets blown up again! 

 TRUMP TWEETS THE IRANIAN PUBLIC 

Last week I mentioned it was noteworthy how President Trump ended his address to the nation over the attack on US facilities in Iraq with a statement to the “Iranian people”. I commented on how this, “reach out” would be perceived in Tehran. If you didn’t read the blog post I am referring to, then let me give you a cheat sheet version. Reaching out to the Iranian public, in the minds of Iranian leadership, is tantamount to using a different weapon system; the weapon of Information Operations or, the old terminology, Phycological Warfare. Yep, in the minds of Iranian leadership, the US President attacked then with his words. What Team Khamenei heard in those closing words from the US President was, “ Rise up against Tehran and you will find a new and wonderful place in this world”. Within days of those closing remarks, the youth of Iran, to some degree, was back on the streets, protesting a corrupt government. Who does Team Khamenei hold responsible for this latest round of civic unrest? You know who. More importantly, was that the intent of the the President Trump? Absolutely! Given Tehran sees these statements by Team Trump as a weapon attack, are there consequences? Yep. 

The Shoot down: 

Why did the average person on the streets of Iran become so upset with the “accidental” , incompetent, downing of the Ukrainian airliner?  Was it because Iranian’s were onboard? Not really. Was that enough to send the people into the streets? What the shooting down of the airliner was is simple. It was just another example of how tired the Iranian people are of their government. During the funeral spectacle for Soleimani, I kept mentioning how the photographs told the real story. The lack of the youth of Iran taking part in the whole event was telling. Yes, family members of the military and the Basij members flooded the streets, but the faces were dramatically different than those who protested the downing of the passenger jet. To put it another way, one crowd was based on those who live under the oppression of Tehran and the other was made up of those who live life well thanks to Tehran. A nation divided? You bet. A divide that could destabilize Tehran? That’s the plan and President Trump’s final statement we are talking about, well, that’s part of the plan. 

Consequences:

I know I have addressed this issue before, but everyone one needs to understand, when you use a “weapon” you will almost always be responded to by a weapon. Tehran sees President Trump’s words as a weapon, a weapon Tehran cannot use in response, well, with the exception of the opposition party in the US. Come to think of it, the party politics in the US is a powerful weapon for Team Khamenei. Anyway, my point is this, Tehran sees these protest by their people as being exploited by the US. Team Khamenei understands the weapon being used against them and that has only one outcome, well, two. 1. Counter the attack with weapons of your own, the militias and other proxy fighters. 2. Suppress the weapon system being used by the enemy. How does Tehran do that? They already have been. Those 1500 massacred people in Iran, that’s Tehran’s version of weapon’s suppression. In the end, what Team Khamenei believes is that Team Trump is out or regime change in Iran and even though Team Trump says they are not in favor of “Regime Change”, it’s obvious, to Tehran and others, they are absolutely  in favor of such an outcome. The trick becomes, how the change comes about? 

Regime Change: Version 2.0:

To the US NEOCONs, what does regime change imply? Some would say, the spreading of Democracy. Others would counter with, contracts, billions of government dollars and profit margins that are unmatched. Who has the right definition? I will let you be the judge, but look at the amount of money spent in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

It’s 2020 and the tools of regime change, well, they need change as well. Can you get the people of a nation to bring about regime change? Have we forgotten the Arab Spring? Was not social uprising the cornerstone of Communism? What is the Anarchist plan for bringing down governance? Look, using the public to bring about change is nothing new. Making regime change into an industry, well, that was some twist to the  process that started after the last two world wars. What’s the saying, 

“ Capitalist based Democracies don’t go to war with each other”? Sounds great and it’s a great excuse for occupying a defeated enemies land. At the end of the day, regime change has gone from a way of insuring one’s enemies now longer have the ability to threaten you, to finding a way to make a lot of money, post conflict. Does the US and the West need regime change in Iran? Yes, but it needs to be based on eliminating a potential threat. By the way, I really can’t stand all this talk about, “Eminent”. Soleimani was or was not posing an, “eminent” threat? Why in the name of anything that is based on logic would anyone wait until a threat, a deadly threat, is “eminent”? This whole “ Eminent” issue is complete hogwash. Tell the owner of the threat one time, “ stop of suffer the consequences”. If that doesn’t work, strike and strike so hard the others watching lose the desire to even appear to pose a threat. If you get stuck on, “ well, that takes away the ability to negotiate peacefully”, than you will become the victim. Not liking the way someone is doing something is far different than realizing they are preparing to do you harm. Understand the difference or go work for the Department of State or UN. 

Are there dangers in relying on the public to bring about regime change? Ask the people who started the revolution against Shah in Iran. Hint, it was not the Islamic Revolution. Yes, as I have said before,  movements are often highjacked. If the US President is successful in getting the youth of Iran to remove Team Khamenei, what comes next? This is the point where the NEOCONs try to make their money. “ If you just let the country fall into turmoil, something worse might take over”. A great pitch for sticking your fingers into a nation in crisis, but is it true. When the colonial powers in Africa pulled out, most of Africa fell into crisis. The Cold War inflamed this crisis, but at the end of the day, what is the threat to the stability of the US from this enduring African crisis? Human waves you say. Mass migrations into Europe? Wait. Has someone used this uncontrolled population weapon against us? Has the prophecy of the NEOCONs come true? Look, toppling a government by using that government’s own population against them is noting new. Worrying that you might make things worse, that’s usually the mindset of academics and Progressives. If Team Trump is taking the 2.O version of regime change as the course of action in Iran, then let’s see if it works. Does someone else control Iran when it’s all said and done? Take the proxy state away from Moscow? Good luck. At the end of the day, if Iran’s military is no longer a threat to the US, than should we really care what comes next? The message is simple, “ threaten me and I will strike you down”. Rebuilding, changing the culture of a region that is 5,000 years old, let that be the vision of someone else. Let Tehran become peaceful and the worries are over. Let Tehran continue to threaten others and those weapons on two feet will just keep coming.  Not an easy answer here, but then again, few answers to complex issues are ever easy. 

THE INTENDED MISS STORY

DOES IT STACK UP?

It’s been several days since the attack on the airfields in Iraq, but something still bothers me and bothers me deeply. “The Iranians deliberately avoided US casualties”. That’s the story everyone in the US and Europe is made to understand and most accept it. Not me. I’m writing my post today to challenged this group think. I’ll admit, I too accepted this approach to the crisis, in the beginning, but as I heard the statements coming out of Tehran, I began to wonder. Yes, Team Khamenei is notorious for colorful threats, but when I read an unclassified story on the initial BDA, Battle Damage Assessment, I began to doubt the party line coming from DC and the MSM. Now, let me make a point here. My approach for keeping this blog going for over nine years is simple. I seek the truth and I tell the truth. If my analytical reviews don’t match party lines, in any nation, then I understand when certain groups no longer wish to follow my post. Having said that, this, “they avoided” theory, in my opinion, is a false narrative and I am going to do my best to show why I believe my theory is correct.
https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-iraq-base-damage-after-iranian-missile-attack-2020-1

BDA: 

Battle Damage Assessment. A process that is executed to the point of perfection by the United States Military. A process I had drilled into my head, over and over and over again. How soon did the the US have a accurate understanding of what damage they has sustained? Within an hour. If not, some board would be getting chewed to pieces. How soon would the US government relates BDA data? As you might expect, casualties reporting  is the top priority for briefing the leadership in DC and casualty reporting is the fist thing the public and media want to hear. When the comment was made, “ we will need to wait for the sun to come up to know BDA”, that was a partial truth, not a Clinton truth, but close!  Sun rise allows the BDA process to be confirmed to nearly 100 percent. Commanders do not wait for 100 BDA reports. Spot reports is enough to make decisions to adjunct battle plans. Okay, on to the real issue I have with this topic of BDA.

What was hit? If you look at this website I attached, you will see some very disturbing images. Didn’t someone say, early in the event, the missiles or rockets had landed in a field? Wrong, well, many one or two and that might have been the message CENTCOM decided to put out. Controlling “rumors” is a top priority of commands to the rear of the conflict. Facts, but limited always with the understanding of a golden rule of combat. “ The first reports are almost always wrong”!

What was hit? Aircraft, drones to be specific, damage to flight Ops and the tower, and storage locations, actually they were maintenance facilities. Now, like I said, first reports are always wrong, so the story of holes in the dirt may have a legitimate bases. But, and here comes a big, “but”!
If those were the targets chosen, and I doubt the weapon system was that accurate, then how does anyone come to the conclusion the IRGC / Team Khamenei/ intended to not harm US service members? Before you start talking to your computer or tablet about the US getting a “heads up”, let me describe for you the area these weapons hit.

As you may guess, the United State’s Military is not a 9 to 5 job, at least not for those in that AOR. Flight lines are 24/7/ Maintenance facilities are 24/7. Base Ops, the Tower is 24/7.  The concept the IRGC fired at targets they knew would not inflict US casualties is insane, so insane, I’m not sure how the MSM or DC came up with this theory.

Once again, let me take on the approach some of you and others like DC and the MSM will counter me with. The story goes, Tehran gave the heads up to Baghdad and Baghdad most likely told the US. This process was something Tehran planned for and it was the bases for insuring US troops were not injured. “ We need to strike you, but we don’t want to hurt you. We need to show our people real damage and tell them how many US soldiers we killed, but we know you already know the truth”. I’m sorry, but if that is the state of warfare in the 21st Century for the US, then I’m not sure how anyone is willing to stay in the services.  Did DC / the Pentagon / play a game to limit what was going to happen? Did the US put  troops in bunkers and then let missiles rain down on their heads? Did the US do this deliberately? Look at the penetration of those strikes? Who would knowing put their troops inside of bunkers, totally confident the bunkers could take the hit? I know I’ve been out for over five years now, but if I was a Commander again, and I found out someone played this game with the lives of my troops......well...... I won’t finish this sentence.

“ They didn’t mean to harm our troops”. That was the initial message even the US Pentagon put out. Now, on  the Friday of the same week of the attack, the US Secretary of State makes the comment, “ We know the Iranians tried to kill our services members”. Wait....what? What storyline are we to believe now? We know the inside of the base was struck. We know Tehran states they tried to kill US service members and will continue to do so. So, how in the world did we end up with a narrative of,
“ They deliberately avoided hurting US members”. Perhaps you can see where my skepticism is coming from now?

BDA doesn’t lie, but, BDA can be manipulated at all levels. I’ve seen it done. The narrative during this event became clear from the beginning; nobody wanted the conflict to get out of hand, and I agreed with that stance. Here is my problem. What level of controlled messaging did the US use to keep that desired narrative? Did the US risk the lives of it’s own service members? Bunkers....look.....I used those bunkers in Desert Storm. I watched SDUDS hit near my bunker. The concept of hiding in a bunker while Tehran is allowed to put on their show,well,  that better not be true. Just how bad did the US want to prevent this event from escalating? Would the US and others simply let the reality of a airliner being shot down go unaddressed ? If you read my post from yesterday, you will see my opinion on this topic as well. In the end, both events worry me. Are we moving towards such scripted warfare? Is this something new? Those that served in Vietnam may know this story all too well. Scripted warfare.

I’m not convinced  I’m correct in my theory, and honestly, I don’t want to believe what my analytical mind is telling me. Having said that, this so called conflict seemed abnormal from the minute everyone started talking on social media and the networks. Here is the last truism I will leave you with. When nations start manipulating conflicts that are underway, when they allows politically considerations to influence the crisis, again, think Vietnam, I can assure you of one thing. Mistakes will be made and people will die and suffer. Don’t believe this statement, try talking to the families of the downed airliner. Clueless Iranian Anti Air units being led by clueless officers, all with deplorable training. The lesson and it’s one that has not changed for thousands of years. If you are going to go to war, do so violently and make your enemy have only one thought, “ make it stop”!  Games, folks, we are playing games.

TRUMP’S MESSAGES 

WHAT DO THEY MEAN AND WHAT DIDN’T HE SAY? 

Like most of you, I listened and watched, watched because the visual part was more important to the region than the words. When it was over,  the first thing I did was turn off the networks. How President Trump gave his speech was important, but the messaging inside the speech, that was brilliant. If you have followed me for the past several years, you know one of my basic rules of dealing with issues in the Middle East. You must look for the messages inside the message. It’s a classic Arab concept and it’s played to the tilt. Okay, now that I have that scene setter out of the way, let’s get down to what took place yesterday. Now, everyone has opinions and that’s the main reason why I turn off the networks. It’s a given that many people will interpret what the US President said in a variety of ways. Let me give you my interpretation looking at this event through the eyes and ears fo two groups; The Middle Eastern Nations and Russia. China? Ya, I’ll touch on that as well. So, here we go! 

NO NUKES: 

After the, “. In your face” way the US assassinated Soleimani, was there any doubt over President Trump’s opening statement? Do you think anyone in Tehran listened to those words, with the Service Chiefs standing behind the President, and thought, “ No way he would attack our facilities”. So, the fist message was black and white. From that point on, the messaging became very complex, for everyone, to include the real enemy of President Trump, The new US Socialist party. 

NATO AND OIL: 

“We no longer need the Middle East oil and it’s up to Europe to find the new balance with the region and Russia”. As a reminder, I’m looking at this speech from the Middle East and Moscow glasses. How did that message go over in Saudi? I’ve said for two years now, the inbound King of Saudi is looking for new alliances, but not under the conditions the Russians and Chinese would require. Bottom line, Saudi doesn’t trust Moscow or Beijing.  

How did this messaging go over in Moscow? NATO, the dirty word Moscow hates, and for good reason. If President Trump was giving the hint, “we are out of the region”, then does Moscow truly believe that NATO has the stones to step up to the plate? Nope! So, was this, in the end, good news for Moscow? If I was in Moscow, I would have looked over and seen that Cheshire Cat grin the Tsar is known for. The US is selling fuel, not buying it and until some nut job like Sanders or Pocahontas gets in the White House, that fact will remain. So, what did the Middle East hear? “Don’t need you and don’t care”. 

The People of Iran:

Here is where the message inside the message really hit home to Team Khamenei. When the US President made the statement about the future of Iran and then followed it up by a closing statement to, “the people of Iran”, you could hear the old men tossing their shoes at the set all over the world! 

Did Tehran interpret President Trump's comment to mean the US would support further uprisings in Iran? You bet they did. More importantly, did the, “people of Iran” interpret this message the same way. Oh ya. How about Moscow? What Moscow heard was, the US is going to stir the pot in Iran, but talk about leaving the region. If anything President Trump said yesterday could lead to further action by Team Khamenei, it’s this topic of, “ the people of Iran”. It made me think of one of my favorite topics, The Law of Unintended Consequences! Did someone on Team Trump think through the impact of this message? Too late now. 

Yesterday’s address by the US President may have been part of the “Off Ramp” concept, but the messages inside the messages, that is what the region and others heard. ‘ Don’t try to build a bomb. We don’t need the region. EU try and grow a set and take on the region you keep telling me I’m approaching all wrong. We are going to make life a living hell for you inside your own country Mr. Khamenei’. And with that, the US President left the podium. 

What was not mentioned:

I must admit, I was so busy interpreting what President Trump was saying and showing, that I may have missed something, but let me bring up two topics that I’m a little confused about. 

Flt PS752: 

Did the US Intelligence Community/ IC / have an understanding of what happened to that airliner leaving Tehran, leaving right in the middle of a possible war for that very city? Did the US have enough situational awareness of anti air systems in Iran to see what was launched and where? That depends on the size of the weapon. A shoulder fired system would have a chance of being detected if the airliner had the systems to do so. The US would have the ability if we had active air operations over the area. The fact of the matter is, the crash of this flight is very....very...suspect. 

If the US knew this airliner was shot down, shouldn’t the US President had said something about it during his speech? If he walked up to the podium and said, “ The murderous regime in Tehran shot down a commercial airliner”. Just what took place here? The video clips I’ve seen clearly show a motor in flames, the kind of event a shoulder fired weapon would create. The incident happened in a area that would have been protected by air defense assets. The Iranians seem very reluctant to let anyone see the wreckage; sound familiar? The Ukraine?  Just what is the level of training of Iranian anti air teams? How professional are the Offices who run these teams? I will give you a hint, the level of technical and professional training in Iran is not even measurable compared to what takes place in the US Military. Screw up in a training exercise and you don’t get an Article 15, administrative punishment, you get beat! How’s that for pressure for some low hanging fruit, ADA, unit? You think you are at war and then this aircraft comes flying over. You didn’t even work in that area up until a few days ago and you have not had real training in months or longer. Could this airliner been shot down? I would say yes, the odds are better than 50/50. So, what happened to this story? BBC ran something this morning about how the aircraft attempted to return to the airport. Indications are, the aircraft declared no mechanical emergency and the airliner’s track didn’t show a struggle for speed or altitude. It went from everything fine, to disaster. Sounds like something happened and that something was not a normal event. 

Here is what I hope is not the case. I hope, pray, the answer is not, “now is not the time Mr. President to bring up this event. We are looking for a way out of this, not to make it worse. Let the Ukrainian government and Canadians push the issue. If they bring it up, then it only strengthens our position on the actions of Tehran”. Like I said, I hope and pray this is not the case, but this event is very disturbing. 

Israel: 

When the US President made his indirect comments about not needing the region anymore, he din’t mention not leaving Israel? Why? No mention of the US’s alliance with Israel. Why? Again, the issue of timing. I can bet you the decision was made to avoid any discussion of Israel in this speech. Talking about Israel and the alliance between the two nations is not a pathway to an Off Ramp! Did this upset Israel? Nope. Why? Because their government already knew there would be no mention of Israel. Like I said, I was not completely tuned in for the whole speech, but these two topics seem to have been left out of the script. Wait. Did anyone hear the US President use the words, or something close to, “You better not do it again”! Did I miss a typical Trump statement? Oh ya.....Off Ramp......I forgot! Here is one thing about, “ Off Ramps”. Sometimes that ramp is very short and the next thing you know, you are right back in heavy traffic.