IRAN AND THE RUMORS OF CONFLICT

Well, my attention is once again pulled back to the Middle East. I’ve tried to stay focused on issues South of the US’s border, but it seems the hottest spot in the world is getting a little warmer. Is there truly a pending event about to take place in the region? Is that possible event based upon US and Iranian tensions? My gut tells me yes, but, it’s the how, why and when, that seems to be the most important items at the moment.

Why:

            Why does it seem something is about to take place? Well, first off, because US officials are saying they might and in my old line of work, that’s a big “hint”! Next, the US Department of State issues an evacuation statement to nonessential US citizens in Iraq. Then we see the withdrawal of the Spanish frigate. Now, this one is strange given the other indicators show a likely target area of Iraq. What would make the Spanish want to pull out? Seems like they don’t want to be part of something. So, it’s not about their safety. It’s about their willingness to be involved in something they may not support. Okay, next step. The Germans announce they are pulling their support from operations in the AOR/ Area of Operations Iraq. What were they providing, basically Special Operations to include intelligence support. Now, do they pull back to the Main Operating Bases / MOBs/ or, are they leaving the whole AOR? Good question, but the point is made. Germany doesn’t seem to want to be involved as well. On top of all of this, you place the flow of information on US “strike forces” being sent into the AOR , the meeting in Bagdad just last week and you have a few more “clues”.

Why / Part Two:

            Alright, we see the tension between the US and Iran has increased recently and some would even say it’s done so dramatically, but is there a reason why? Has something changed? Let’s assume the Mullahs decided it was time to up their game by deciding to announce certain areas of the nuclear agreement were going to be discontinued. Why? Because the real biting part of the oil sanctions kicked in, that’s why.  Let’s assume that decision was made several months ago and let’s assume we picked up on this decision by intelligence methods. Let’s also assume the Mullahs decided to up the pressure around the AOR and that included moving assets into areas that could threaten US forces and US interest. Again, assume the US saw this taking place. Folks, this is typically how a pending crisis like this unfolds.

            The sun comes up on a particular morning and the US President’s threat brief is given. In this brief the issue of Iranian decisions is reviewed along with Iranian actions. It’s at that point in time the President and his key staff agree, we would hope, that a reaction to Iranian events must be planned. That process typically starts with a warning order to identified units and assets based upon an existing Course of Action / COA/ Central Command has come up with incase of actions against Iran.  Once that process is underway, a deliberate messaging campaign is usually initiated…..I stress…….usually! The purpose is to begin the process of influencing the enemy’s actions and to let them know you are aware of what they are doing. Hint…you don’t do this by Twitter…. or at least the US didn’t use to do it that way….times change. At the same time, the process of informing partners and allies gets underway. Now, there is always levels of this awareness. Those that are going to be potential players in the event are drawn in first and at a much deeper level. Those that need to know in order to show open support, but have no potential play in the event, those that could be impacted by the event but have no need to know any level of detail, that makes up the bulk of what types of notification needs to be accomplished. Once that process takes place, the media is usually all over the story, unless they are on their daily mission to prove The Donald is a spy.  Disrupting to what might need to be accomplished? You have no idea!

            Here comes the tricky part. As a potential event is being planned, it is anticipated the enemy or other enemies become aware of what you are up to and with that, they typically begin to change their options. In this case, strike first, but not in a way anticipated….the four oil tankers and the pipeline events. Okay, without going on and on, there you have it, a down and dirty as to why we are seeing this event unfold. Let me jump into the next core issue? How!

How:

            If we assume something is going to happen, then how might it take place? Are there indicators of how this event might take place? Hold on because this answer is only addressing one side of the event. The other side is determined by the opposition.

            If you look at the assets in the AOR, the ability to strike Iranian targets in Iraq already exist. Here is the other cold hard fact, the US doesn’t need all the assets to be in theater to strike what appears to be a select group of targets. By the way, don’t just count US assets. You may want to remind yourself who has been pounding Iranian units in Syria for the past several years. Anyway, if Iranian controlled proxy groups, groups controlled by the IRGC  and al-Qud forces, have been moved to pose a greater threat to US forces and allies in the region and that change is deemed unacceptable to US leadership, then you have the key ingredient as to “how” the event might take place. Again, do not forget the trip to Bagdad late last week. That message was most likely very clear. “If Iranian assets on your land don’t change their current status, they will be struck and we will not notify you or ask for your approval”. That was the message, I can almost guarantee you.

Tactics:  

If Iranian assets in Iraq truly are the targets, how would they be struck? From the air and good luck to any anti air units that attempt to stop that action. Is that it? Would that be the extent of this pending operation? Let me answer that question by asking one. What else would the US need to do? Would ground units be required? No, with the exception of perhaps some Special Operators to verify targets, but even that is not truly necessary. So, this pending event could be much like the IDF actions in Syria? Yes, only the IDF / Israel doesn’t telegraph their intentions. Would it be larger than the last two rounds of US actions in Syria? Most likely, but that would be determined by the number of Iranian supported units in a position to threaten US operations. So if it seems like this pending action is not much different than the past few executed by the US and Israel, then what is all the fuss about? Intel…..folks…..intel!  Have the Mullahs decided to respond if their operations in Iraq are struck? You can bet the US and its allies have a good idea what has been talked about inside the halls of Tehran. Remember, the enemy gets a vote. If initial targets are struck with the same tactics as in the past, but the indicators are the enemy will respond this time around, then the tactical capability to respond to that reality must be planned for, thus, the increased number of assets brought into the AOR. In a way, that scenario has already taken place with the oil tankers and the pipeline. Look. It’s one thing to smack a few units inside Syria, but to attempt to change the course of actions of Tehran in Iraq, that is a very different and much more complex problem-set. 

Follow on targets? Have they been planned for? You bet they have. Are they based on the possible courses of action / COA’s the IC has picked up on from Tehran. Most likely. Never forget this. Conflict is an issue of potential escalations. The enemy gets a vote. Just how desperate are the Mullahs? By the way, the rumors of the Russians moving to neutralize the Iranian influence in Syria are more than rumors. Stop to think about that for a second. Sanctions that are biting worse than ever before, a public that is still fuming over the lack of response to the nationwide floods and Moscow finally making their play to make Syria’s future fit Russia’s goals……..not the Mullahs. That’s a recipe for real…real…. Trouble. Does that change the tactics? Does that mean the US could be looking at another Iraq or Afghanistan? I don’t think so, but you never know what the pressure is from those that do not want to feel irrelevant. If it’s a repeat air show, where does that leave the future budgets for the ground forces? Think that doesn’t come into play? Then, you don’t know DC. Yes, the US and allied forces must be ready for a disproportionate response from Tehran. Yes, that would require additional assets into the AOR, but that doesn’t mean the tactics will change. Bottom line, nobody needs ground troops if this goes South. 

When:

I can remember sitting in the sandbox for month after month with each passing day having a rumor the war was going to start……..Desert Storm. Then one day………it did.  So when does this potential event take place? US citizens have been warned to leave Iraq…not the region, so that’s interesting. Those that don’t want to be part of the event have started to pull out. Additional assets are already operational in the AOR. ( Don’t forget the Israelis). So, when? Answer….that’s a good question. I’ve seen these types of events go write up to the wire and then get called off. I’ve seen them take months to actually execute, but that was based on a major forced buildup. Here is my bet. The “window” of operations was based upon communications. First the communications with Moscow over what the US is willing to do and then secondly, the communications that went from Baghdad to Tehran last week………along with the urgent message from Qatar to the Mullahs as well.  Having said this, here is what truly matters. Just how desperate are the Mullahs? Just how hopeless do things seem to be. I tell you, you cannot underestimate the issue of Moscow pulling back on it’s open support to the Mullahs. At the end of the day, what Moscow wants is the ability to influence the flow of oil and gas in the region. The dreams of the Persians are meaningless to the Russians. What’s in it for them or, what price is Moscow willing to pay to save the Mullahs? Here is one last issue to ponder and I’ve said this time and time again. The Mullah’s vision for Iran may be an All or Nothing approach, but what about the leadership of the IRGC / al-Qud, Regular Army? Is that their vision. Are they willing to get into a confrontation that could lead to the destruction of everything Iran has going for it? If it gets that bad and you have “friends” in Moscow and or DC who are willing to let you be the next top dog, do you jump off the edge of the cliff for the sake of the old men in Tehran. Are we close to that point? Could be.

 Note:The IDF may have held back on this last round of rockets from Gaza, Iranian supported, for a reason. Perhaps they knew a much more important event was just over the Horizon. Does The Donald’s Son in Law, Boy Wonder, get to put his “Deal of the Century” on the table first? If so and Tehran knows that, then more oil tankers better get ready for rough times. Oh ya…Keeping the future King in Saudi in check while this goes on………..now there is yet another danger zone, but that is a story for another day. 

THE DRUG CARTELS….. “ A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER”!

Yes, it was a typical Clancy movie and its objective was to paint the US government as the ultimate bad guy, but besides his bid to make more money off another action packed thriller, was Clancy really on to something? Are the drug cartels, the Mexican drug cartels, a Clear and Present Danger to the United States? My answer is yes, and if you don’t like that answer, I guess you can stop here and go do something else. If you are wondering what case I can make for this stance, then by all means, continue to read on.

Mass Migration:

Is the US in a crisis right now with the mass migration issues taking place along it’s southern and Southwestern border? To the folks who live along the coastlines, most likely not. It’s an issue that is over a thousand miles away and they only have to turn the channel on the cable news to avoid the whole topic. To the people who live along the border with Mexico, you know…….fly over country….. it’s an issue that touches your day to day life in almost everyway possible. Let me give you a number and then let me drive on. 30,000……….30,000 illegal entries in just 10 days! That is what the US Border Patrol announced this week. 30,000 in 10 days! It’s never happened to the US in that number. It is an unprecedented event and that’s why USBP put the statement out there. Okay, let me move on.

Factors behind the Mass Migrations:

Are most of these people from Central American nations? Yes. Are they leaving because their countries have become increasingly dangerous to live in? In most cases yes. What is creating this dangerous environment? A failed government? yes. A failed economy? Yes. A failed legal system? Yes. A complete lack of trust by the people in their governments? Yes. So, how did all of this happen? What factors have led to this level of collapse? Short version, who is to blame? If you ask the typical academic, their answer will rotate around the poor vision the US has had for the region for over a hundred years and it hurts me to say this, but they are mostly correct. The US has fixated on Europe, Asia and the Middle East since the end of World War I and folks, that was over 100 years ago! Now, the US has woken up to millions of people who feel desperate enough to take their children by the hand and start walking. Walking towards an unknown future. A future that is filled with danger and despair and yet, they walk. Well, is that it? The US just accepts it’s their fault and prepares to let anyone who wants in to just come on in? that seems to be the stance of one US political party. Oh by the way, when they show up, they are to be so eternally grateful for that stance they will vote for that party the rest of their lives and their children’s, children’s lives as well. No alternative motive there! As a friend stated a few weeks back, if those same people were White Russians and they were all wearing MAGA hats and T-Shirts, what would that same party’s stance be? Okay, let me move on. Yes, the US has failed Central and South America, but if the US is to make that an issue of the past, if the US is to “right the ship” of the Americas, how does it start? Yes, the past few Presidents have put into place a few policies here and there and even spent a few billion dollars on looking like they care about the issue, but in the long run, it changed nothing. The US and key partners in the region, Brazil, Columbia, Chile and Argentina to name a few, have to start a true course correction. They have to collectively address the fundamental issue, corruption.

What is the primary factor in the status of the Central American nations? Corruption. Corruption based on what? Drug money. How do you get a Honduran Police Officer to do his or her job when they can make ten times their yearly salary in a week by just simply not doing their job?  Folks. Here comes the hard part. You take out the people providing them the option. Yep, you take out the drug cartels. By the way, when you hear, “drug cartels”, don’t limit yourself to thinking in terms of cocaine or methamphetamine. Think in terms of stolen gasoline and human trafficking. Drug cartels have adapted to the market and the opportunity to make money has never been so good.

Let me speed things up. The cartels are the primary issue that must be addressed in the region. Until they are neutralized, the ability to stabilize the nations that are producing the people in the human waves will have no chance of stopping the flow to the US. The US cannot continue to address this issue at its border. That’s too late. That’s like stopping the car bomb at your doorway.

The Real Danger:

            Some of you have heard me mention this on Daniel Horowitz’s PODCAST, a guy who get’s it by the way, but the greatest danger of the US’s Southern neighbors being destabilized comes from the US’s enemies. A crisis on the US’s border is an event that draws resources and attention from other areas in the world. If I wanted the US to reduce its attention on Europe or the Middle East or even Asia, South China Seas, I would do everything I could to create a crisis in the US’s own backyard. With a little off the radar support here and there, it’s fairly easy to keep these Central America and even South American countries in crisis mode. Who is backing the current government in Venezuela by the way and why? Do the enemies of the US see the drug cartels as useful, proxy tools to disrupt the US? Yes. Did these same enemies try this same tactic with the spread of Communism in the region for over 30 yrs? Yes. Why should they not support, directly or indirectly, groups that can produce the same outcome? Have the enemies of the US refined the weapon of mass migration to bring about political change in the EU? Yes. Are these enemies willing to support this same weapon against the US? Yes. Look. The cartels are the primary reason the nations of Central America remain in a collapsed state, that and the US’s pathetic policies towards the region.

            Can mass migration destabilize the US? Take a look at Europe. Can the issue of mass migration further a growing divide between the American people? Yes. Do the US’s enemies see the US population as divided more than ever before? You just have to read their controlled media outlets to get that answer. The Coastlines don’t care, and one party is actually in favor of the whole event, much like the current government in Germany and look what that has gotten them. Yes, the US needs to start a huge project of realigning its priorities to systemically solve this crisis, but in the interim, one fact stands true. The cartels present a clear and present danger to the near-term stability of the US. It is time to identify them as what they are…..terrorist organizations. Stop calling them Transnational Crime Organizations. The impact of what they believe in, controlling whatever ground they operate on, is not different than any current terrorist group. Hamas is about power and money. Hezbollah is about power and money. The cartels are about power and money. They are terrorist. The US needs to treat them as such and then start the process of truly unifying with the whole region, not just looking down it’s nose at what is taking place from the coastlines. DC can begin to feel the pain of “fly over country” or that “fly over country” may just “deal” with the issue themselves and that is exactly what the US’s enemies dream of…… A US that is so divided, it no longer has any vision.

What I want to hear and I want to hear it NOW ……is…” Knife this is Variable”!!!

THE SEEMINGLY NEVER-ENDING GAME OF ROCKETS.

What took place between last Friday and late last night in Israel and Gaza? The answer……the same thing that has been taking place time and time again. I could go down crazy rabbit holes on topics like OODA loops and try and impress everyone like some of those out there looking to score the next book deal, but I won’t. Let me put this to you in good old fashion Joe Six Pack terms. Israel continues to get it’s A.. handed to it on the battlefield of world perception. How many times have I addressed this issue of Hamas and other proxy groups in Gaza driving Israel’s government crazy? Too many.  So, let’s get down to it!

Why is this Happening:

            Again, for the sake of simplicity, let me give you a few options to review and then I will tell you what one I support.

1.     The relationship Trap. Israel is nearly paralyzed by The Donald’s Son in Law’s, Boy Wonder, pending Middle East Peace Plan. The relationship between The Donald and Netanyahu is the strongest Israel has ever had with the US. So, here is the problem. To take the actions that are truly required to neutralize the attacks from Gaza, Israel would have to take actions that would kill any hope of even bringing Boy Wonder’s plan to the table.  By the way. I don’t care what that plan calls for, it will be rejected outright before anyone from the Palestinian side even takes the time to read or hear it. Why? Because the decision process doesn’t take place inside the Palestinian movement. It takes place in Tehran. In short, Netanyahu is holding back in order to avoid an opportunity for the US plan to be dead on arrival. Remember……it already is!

2.     Casualty Aversion! Israel, like the US, has become completely casualty adverse. Moving into Gaza, all of Gaza, would be costly not only for the people of Gaza, but for the people of Israel and the IDF. The power of social media and 24/7 cable news is a tool the enemy has learned to leverage far better than any nation in the West. In today’s “modern conflicts”, the report of 100 dead at one time holds the same social shock power as 15,000 dead in one event such as WWII. The government of Israel and the US have absolutely no confidence their citizens would support any operation with such results and if that operation was required to continue for weeks or months, both governments are convinced they would fall. Who knows this? The enemies of both nations……………….that’s who. Within hours of this latest round of rocket diplomacy starting, BBC’s lead photograph was of a young Child in Gaza sitting on a pile of rubble.

3.     Orders from the Top. Who gives the orders to Hamas, Hezbollah and most of the other groups to start an operation? If you don’t believe it’s the Mullahs in Tehran, then you need to stop reading my post and go spend your time somewhere else.  Last week, the 2^nd stage of the oil sanctions took hold and the Mullahs didn’t like it. They have had to move leaders inside the IRGC and even talked of placing them under the Iranian Army. Why? Because things are not going well and last weeks additional sanction actions just made a bad situation worse. Now the rumor is Iran is contemplating an “event” against US interest in the region and thus, a Task Force is moved into place. Well, that may be true, but I will tell you what is a fact. The actions taken by Hamas and others inside of Gaza were not based on the decisions of local leaders. Sisi and the Egyptian intelligence heads, think about that for a minute…. Intelligence heads working on a ceasefire….not the Egyptian version of their Department of State, walked away from the ceasefire process last week. The story goes, they couldn’t get Hamas and the Islamic Jihad reps to agree to terms. Why? Because they don’t make those decisions and Tehran wants no “ terms”. Egypt and Israel talk….everyday….around the clock and it should be no surprise Israel issued such a stern warning last week over any pending actions during their remembrance events. Short answer, everyone knew it was coming. So, did Netanyahu know this next round of rocket diplomacy was coming? Yes. How could he not know? Tehran was looking for a response to the 2^nd phase of the oil sanctions and the Hamas rocket game was something like, 10-0. Ugly and a guaranteed embarrassment for Israel, the orders went out and the rockets started. By the way, the orders to stop didn’t come from some “agreement” reached by the UN, Egypt and Qatar.

Okay, I know you have caught on by now as to my pick. Yep…. it’s all three. For Netanyahu and The Donald, this is the Perfect Storm and they are both caught in its high seas. Here is the kicker and the most dangerous reality. They both know who is making these events take place and they both know what is at risk…. A US attempt, yet another one, of finding a peace process for the region.

 Unintended Consequences:

            As brilliant as this plan may seem to the old men in Tehran, it has an obvious risk they seem to be underestimating. Israel cannot afford to retake Gaza, at least not at the current casualty rate the people of Israel are suffering. Team Trump, to include Boy Wonder, cannot afford a major campaign by Israel prior to the release of the Peace Plan. So, then what? What does that mean to the Mullahs? Can this go on forever? How does the firebase that Gaza has become for Tehran insure the future of Iran? It doesn’t!

            Tehran’s plan has been to prevent the risk of a US backed peace agreement in the region and to cultivate this plan, they have utilized the firebase built on Israel’s border. Folks, I am here to tell you, that plan is built on shattered glass.  Netanyahu is sick and tired of watching Hamas and Islamic Jihad taking yet another victory lap at the expense of his legacy and the safety of Israel. Yes, he has been wiling to holdback what needs to take place in order for The Donald’s pledged plan to be formally place on the table, but the price he is paying is growing by the hour. The morale of the IDF Commanders and Line Units is taking a heavy hit. Simply put, this cannot continue for much longer. But, and this is a huge but…….. it’s becoming clear Team Trump’s “plan” is being pushed further into the Summer and for reasons Netanyahu simply cannot accept. Yep….it’s campaign time again in the US and the risk of Team Trump’s plan being dead on arrival is being evaluated heavily by the campaign heads. Two things happen in a typical US Presidential race when there is an issue that might impact the outcome. 1. The issue is pushed off the table until after the election. 2. It is allowed to play out early so the perception process has time to move on to the next issue. What option does anyone believe Netanyahu is pushing for? Can he afford to let Tehran play the rocket game for the foreseeable future? He was just reelected, so he is politically safe, but what about the people of Southern Israel? What about the tens of thousands who are not adapting to living out of their bomb shelters more than their own homes? What of the impact on the IDF? How many more times can they be pushed to the border of Gaza only to be told to turn around?

            When the phone rang this weekend and The Donald was told His buddy was on the line, what did he tell him? Be patient? Hold on? I need you to not overreact. 700 rockets and even rumors of wire guided weapons fired into Israel. What would the Donald do it that was taking place along the Mexican Border? You can bet that is exactly the stance Netanyahu took. “Put the plan on the table now. You know they are going to spit on it. Let’s get this out of the way so I can do what needs to be done.”

There is one other option and it’s an option right up the alley of how Trump thinks. Hit the people calling the shots. Hit the leadership of those calling for the rocket attacks. You don’t need to attack the Iranian military in its totality. The ability of the IDF to inflict damage on the Mullah’s number one shield, the IRGC, has been proven time and time again in Syria. Perhaps now is the time to take that concept to a whole new level? As the Abraham Lincoln and other assets are moved into position, it’s clear the unit members of the IRGC should be taking their prayers during Ramadan a lot more seriously.

“FIFTEEN DAYS IN JUNE”

The following is a scenario I have developed on what would lead to a true Mass Migration Crisis on the US border and what the consequences would be. It’s my opinion, but it’s based on my observations of the issue since 2011.

JUNE 2019:

In June of 2019, a series of murders in Mexico City of  local store owners resulted to an organized march protesting the lack of security in the city. 
Several of the murdered store owners were vocal in their warning to stand up their own militia, commonly referred to as “Autodefensas”. 
President Obrador was informed the protest were supported by a group known to have ties to a movement on Mexico’s campuses that had been affiliated with , Yo soy 132 / I am 132. 
This group had strongly supported the concept of the Arab Spring in Mexico in 2012.

The protest continued for fifteen consecutive days and grew violent on the fifth day. 
A policy of restraint by the Mexican authorities was deemed ineffective after a large number of more prominent businesses in Bosques de las Lomas district were attacked resulting in several large fires. US media networks began to cover the protest in Mexico city after the events in the more prominent business areas. 
The President had given daily press conferences with each revolving around the issue of social injustices in Mexico and the imbalance for the distribution of wealth. 
The government’s attempt to show empathy created an unintended consequence that resulted in the most violent actions on the fifth day.

On the morning of the sixth day of protest, a much stronger show of force was visible in the streets of Mexico City. 
World media coverage had increased dramatically and the number of individuals who were on scene posting to social media was estimated to be over 5,000. 
By the evening of the sixth day, the violence in Mexico City spread dramatically. 
A group who called themselves “Los Defensores” were seen in several locations of the city attempting to protect privately owned businesses. 
These businesses were in the less affluent areas. 
 The group’s statements on social media accused the government of only protecting the upper-class areas of Mexico City.  
Leaders of the protest group stated their support for the Los Defensores.
 By the evening of the sixth day, the perception of unity between the protesters and the members of “ Los Defensores” was prominent on all major social media networks.

On day seven,  Doctor Jose Manuel Mireles, a leading figure in Mexico’s Autodefensas movements, stated the government needed to listen to the needs of the people before the situation in Mexico City became out of hand. 
On day seven, units from SEDENA stationed near Mexico City were dispatched to support law enforcement operations in the city. 
The President had been reluctant to order such actions given his campaign promise to remove the Mexican military from the streets of Mexico. 
By the evening of day seven, reports on social media showed large protest in several other major cities throughout Mexico, most notably in Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez and Puebla.
 The protest in these cities were reported to be supported by organizers from the same movement, “ I am 132”. 
The Mexican government also became convinced that other outside sources were supporting these protest and the observations of several social media networks seemed to support that assumption.

By the evening of the eighth day, world media networks were spinning a picture of Mexico being in a full-scale crisis and the analogy of a Mexican “Arab Spring” was being used by networks such as CNN, MSNBC, BBC and Sputnik.
At that same time, major business districts in Mexico City had been closed for three days and the number of people in and around the city began to fear the protest would spiral out of control. 
The President continued to be reluctant to use a higher level of force from the Mexican Military and by the morning of the 9^th day, the whole world was watching Mexico.

Others:

By the fourth day, IRGC intelligence briefings in Tehran informed their leadership that the events inside Mexico posed a growing threat to the United States and it was obvious the US government was becoming more and more concerned about what was taking place. 
Iranian cyber assets were tasked to leverage this event to the greatest extent possible.
 Iranian social media operations were assigned to paint a picture of a true Arab Spring event taking place in Mexico and to tie the blame for the event on the United States government to the greatest extent possible. 
A sanitized contact protocol process was implemented through several groups in Venezuela with the goal of making contact with the I am 132 movement leaders. 
By the 8^th day of the event, that contact had been confirmed and the flooding of social media with statements of how the US was just as responsible for the conditions in Mexico as the current Mexican government began to show up on US media networks. 
On day nine, CNN and MSNBC began to paint a picture of how the Trump Administration had failed to respond effectively to the conditions that were now obvious in Mexico and that his comments about closing the border had only made a desperate people even more desperate.
 On day nine, US intelligence networks confirmed the influence that was now taking place was not only from Iran, but from Venezuela and “others”. 
The US President was informed the violence in Mexico showed no signs of subsiding and there were growing indicators inside of SEDENA that senior leaders were becoming alarmed.
 A SEDENA senior officer, assigned as a liaison to NORTHCOM, had made the comment that many of his peers believed the situation could become much worse.

On the morning of the 10^th day, the largest gathering of the protest was scheduled to take place at 6pm local time in Mexico City. 
The protest was scheduled to be outside The Federal District Buildings.
 As soon as the Mexican government became aware of this event, it was decided to announce  no such event would be authorized and that anyone who showed up there would face a stern response. By 5pm, it was estimated over 200,000 protesters had arrived at the location. 
At apx. 5:15pm, several social media networks were reporting shots being fired into the crowd and numerous injuries were taken place. 
Most of the postings indicated the shootings were continuing and members of SEDENA were seen firing into the crowd of protestors.

The first report to the US President was based upon confirmed weapons fire at the protesters, but there was not indication as to who was firing into the crowd. 
SEDENA liaisons at NORTHCOM reported that no Mexican military unit had been given authorization to fire on civilians and it was unclear how the shooting had started. 
US intelligence had tracked three groups of apx twenty males who traveled into Mexico from Venezuela within 24hrs of this event. 
The violence continued until 8pm and by that time, reports of over 100 people being killed were flooding the networks.
 Pictures of civilians face down in the street outside the area near the federal building were shown globally by every media network as well as all social media outlets. 
The Mexican President addressed the people of Mexico at 9pm and assured them the government was not responsible for what had taken place, but the reporting pool that was in the room erupted into an uncontrolled clamor of questions that gave the appearance of a leader in full crisis mode. 
By 9pm, reports of shots being fired into the crowds in the cities of Monterrey and Juarez were being reported by all sources. 
At 11pm, the President of Mexico ordered the Mexican military to secure the area around the nation’s capital complex.

On the 11^th day of the crisis, the US President’s morning briefing was almost exclusively on the topic of events in Mexico. 
Initial reports indicated the number of dead and wounded in Mexico City was over 400 with an additional 300 from other locations throughout Mexico. 
Intelligence reports indicated that at least two of the teams that had been tracked from Venezuela were in  Juarez and Monterrey and it was extremely possible the shootings at those locations had been supported by those teams. 
The US President spoke with his Mexican counterpart within an hour of the briefing and it became clear the Mexican government was struggling to gain control of what was taking place. 
That afternoon, the media reported a rally of over 1 million people had formed in Mexico City and that they were calling for the immediate resignation of the President and the Secretary of National Defense. 
Global media coverage was now live and continuous. 
Analogies of the comparison to the Arab Spring were being repeated by every network covering the crisis. 
The protest in the city of Juarez was estimated at over 500,000 and it was rumored that almost every city worker had joined the event.
 US intelligence reports also indicated that city employees in Mexico City and several other key locations were joining the events at their locations.

Events slide out of control:

By nightfall of the 11^th day, the city of Juarez was reported to be without power. 
Indications were, the employees responsible for keeping the network running had joined the protest and a large fire had resulted in a cascading power failure. 
US Intelligence reported the fire that had started at two major power junctions seemed to be related as they took place within 10 minutes of each other and after two small explosions were witnessed at both locations. 
The US President authorized immediate intelligence air assets over the city of Juarez as well as the closure of all ports of entry into the city of El Paso.
 Reports of the closures reached the public within the first hour after the orders went into effect. 
The SEDENA liaison at NORTCOM reported the city of Juarez would come under curfew by order of the President at midnight local time. 
News of this curfew reached the media within the hour and the situation in Mexico was perceived as critical.  
At daybreak on the 12^th day, the analysis of the situation in Juarez indicated the city would be without power for up to two months and that was based on those who understood how to run the network returning to work.
 By noon that day, reports of looting inside the city were being reported by all networks.
 By 3pm that day, SEDENA units were seen moving into the city in large numbers. 
CNN then released a story of Mexican citizens who had been in the city of El Paso prior to the event attempting to locate family members inside Juarez.
 CNN reported that nearly 60 percent of the US families in El Paso had family members in Juarez and the issue of their safety became a topic on that network.
 An official request to set up a process to allow family members in Juarez into El Paso was denied by the US government. 
The media then began to question the issue of expatriates and US citizens inside Mexico and how they would be brought back to the US. 
This topic was quickly made into an issue of the Administration’s failure to properly deal with the crisis. 
Other Ports of Entry into the US had remained open, but it was becoming clear the crisis in Mexico was bringing into question the US government’s plan for dealing with what was taking place. 
By nightfall on the 12^th day, the protest in Mexico City was seen as completely out of control. 
The Mexican military had been ordered to implement a curfew in the city that would run from 9pm to 6am until further notice. 
Social media postings made it obvious the curfew was being ignored . 
At apx 11pm on the night of the 12^th day of the crisis, reports of numerous shots being fired in several locations in and around Mexico City were being reported by all networks. 
US intelligence indicated that most of the activity was not based on organized operations but most likely do to those looking to exploit the crisis. 
Looting had grown exponentially by the 12^th day and the ability of the government to stop such large dispersed events was impossible. 
On the evening of the 12^th day, the US President authorized air assets to be flown over critical areas in an attempt to gain as much intelligence on the crisis as possible. 
US citizens in Mexico had been leaving for the past five days and that pace was dramatically increased when the US department of State put out an advisory for all US citizens to depart a growing list of locations in Mexico. 
This DoS advisory was immediately picked up by the major networks and the intensity of the crisis was portrayed as being nearly out of control. 
 On the morning of the 13^th day, the airports In Mexico City and other locations were overwhelmed by the number of non-Mexican and Mexican citizens departing the country. 
Cruise ships had been advised to avoid their typical ports of call and the news of that event drove the perception of the crisis even further into panic.
 That same day, power was lost in most areas of Mexico City as well as several other locations in the country.
 It had become obvious the people who maintained these networks were not showing up for work and thus the impact was being seen across Mexico.
 Without power, sewer and water production was lost and the result was dramatic in Mexico City. 
The concept of filling in these critical positions with military members proved to be ineffective as they had no understanding of local networks.  
On the morning of the 14^th day of the crisis, the US government decided that all ports of entry to the US would be closed and all US citizens would be ordered out of Mexico. 
NORTHCOM was tasked with the lead support mission to insure all US ports of entry along the US border would be closed and prepared to support operations to validate any US citizen who might show up at those locations. 
The news of this operation overwhelmed the media networks. 
The primary discussion became Mexico was collapsing into a “Failed Nation State”. 
The past 13 days of the crisis had had a dramatic impact on the world markets, but the news of the US closing all Ports of Entry and assigning the US military to process US citizens back into the US had the greatest impact.
 Markets were ordered closed within an hour of this plan being announced, but not before breakers had to be implemented after a 3,000-point drop.
 Overall, the US stock market had fallen 20 percent since the beginning of the crisis.
 On the evening of the 14^th day, US intelligence indicated Mexico’s ten largest cities had no power and looting was taking place at an “extreme” level. 
The Mexican President informed the US President he was implementing Article 29 of the Mexican Constitution, Mexico’s version of Martial Law. 
At midnight of the 15^th day, that announcement was made to the media. 
The Mexican military was now ordered to restore order in any territory or city at any cost. 
For those who were not Mexican citizens and where still in Mexico, the level of panic was extremely visible. 
Media outlets began to show panic at all airports and vehicles lined up at the US Ports of Entry for miles. 
Without power in many regions, the ability to purchase gasoline led to those leaving by roadway to abandon their efforts. 
On the afternoon of the 15^th, The President of the US held a discussion with his Mexican counterpart on the probability of the US having to secure the safety of US citizens inside of Mexico. 
The Mexican President assured his US counterpart that action would not be necessary. 
He also stated he would be deeply opposed to any US military involvement on Mexican soil, to include the areas around the Ports of Entry.
The conversation ended with the Mexican President stating he would appeal to the UN for immediate support as he regained control of his country from what he stated was a temporary and deliberate crisis, supported by “others”.

On the evening of the 15^th day, the President’s now continuous situational reporting updates on the events in Mexico indicated that an estimated 2 million people were moving towards the US border and the percentage of US citizens inside this movement was unknown.
 Most of the cell phone communications between families in the US had been interrupted due to the loss of power in Mexico. 
By the morning of the 16^th day, the US was facing a Mass Migration crisis unlike anything it had encountered in its history.

THE NERO OF MEXICO. AMLO IS IN MORE TROUBLE THAN HE THINKS.

Well, it didn’t take long, but AMLO, who I will now refer to as The Mexican Nero, is finding himself in DEEP…..DEEP…trouble. A few days ago, I posted my opinions on the issue of having a plan incase Mexico turns into Syria or Albania. At the end, I made the prediction the actions of Mexico City would determine how soon the US would need to have this “plan” in place. Well, let me tell you why I think that time is much closer than I believed just a few short days ago.

Distractions:

            Historically, what does every government leader do when he or she believes they are in trouble? Yep, they look for a distraction. The greater the threat to their staying in power, the greater the distraction must become. When Nero became El Presidente of Mexico, he made a commitment not to go after the drug cartels, not a statement, a commitment. Why? Well, for one reason, the percentage of those inside the government he was going to be in charge of paid their bills with cartel money. He had to find a way to show the people he was going to “clean up” the Mexican government, but he had committed to leaving the cartels alone. That created a huge, almost insurmountable problem. How could he show the people he was different but not kick sand in the face of the organization that truly ran the country?

Daily Talk Show:

            The Mexican Nero is on TV, Radio, Podcast, Twitter, Facebook every day, but the event that sticks out the most , is the daily TV Press Briefings. Day after day, he tells the story of how he is cleaning up Mexico. He speaks of the level of corruption he will no longer tolerate. He names  Mexican agencies that are conducting graft at all levels and he usually ends with, “no more”. For the first month or so, this seemed to work, but then reality caught up with him. As he stood their talking about the inequities of jobs, education and living conditions, the reporters sitting in front of him began to ask a universal question, “ What about the violence”? When Nero decided to tell them, the violence was down and “stable”, he forgot the reporters had access to this aggravating item, the national crime stats. Here he was painting a picture of all the social injustices in Mexico and the people began to only ask one question, “ how are you going to stop the killings”?

Look over there!

            What has become his answer to the question he doesn’t want to address? Answer, the quickest form of distraction is to yell, “look over there”, and that is exactly what he has now attempted. If you see the spear coming at you, you need to place bodies in front of you!  All those corrupt Mexican agency heads, they are being placed in front of the public’s spear, but here comes the real problem. What happens when you run out of bodies to hide behind or worse, what happens when those being placed in front of the spear decide to fight back?

            Nero is quickly running out of allies inside a corrupt government. His stance seems to be to keep the “common / poor folks” on his side. Burn everything else down, but make it look like it’s not your fault. If you are sitting inside a Mexican agency and you see Nero proclaiming your office is corrupt, what are your options? How about you turn to the organization that pays you to let them operate in Mexico as they wish? How about you ask that organization to turn up the heat, a heat that only Nero can be held responsible for? Why is the murder rate already of 2018, a record year for Mexico? What level of internal conflict is taking place inside Mexico City?

Signs of even more trouble:

            Just yesterday, Nero gave yet another speech about the pending release of “ all “ political prisoners in Mexico. Just how does that address the out of control murder rate? Look, let me get to the point. Nero is not  looking for solutions to the murder rate. He is building his defensive forces around his administration. Making promises to outlying Senators about the pending release of all political prisoners is an attempt to do one thing, buy allegiance for a pending conflict. You can only toss so many Mexican departmental heads in jail. You can only fire so many agency heads. You can only put so many bodies in front of the spear, but in the end, the reality is going to arrive. Nero promised to leave the cartels alone, but he is using the people inside his government to distract the public from what the cartels are doing. Oh, by the way. When he identifies these corrupt officials, he is removing the very people the cartels are relying on. How do you think that is going to go over? Nero is closing himself off inside his fortress of Mexico City and he plans on having his Farmer / peasant Army protect him from the truth. Last note. Military leadership in Mexico. What is their opinion of what is taking place? Folks, I will now call him Nero for one reason. It appears this guy is fine with letting the rest of the nation burn as long as he thinks he won’t be blamed for it.

            Meanwhile, back in the US…………….well……………………….. I won’t go there just yet.

Picture. I saw this post on Twitter this morning and thought, that's perfect!  

 MEXICO’S STABILITY AND THE ISSUE OF A “BUFFER ZONE”.

            The situation in Venezuela reaches critical mass, thanks to the US’s enemies and the US’s poor track record in the region, and a massive wave of people begins to head North. Colombia closes its borders, already nearly complete, Brazil follows Columbia’s lead and a Human Mass Migration, a real “Mass” 300/ 500 thousand starts to move North. Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras Guatemala all open the doors at both ends with the intent of everyone just passing through…..Think Turkey and the march to Europe. Next stop Mexico. Does Mexico turn them around? If they can’t turn around three thousand, how do they turn three hundred thousand? Does Mexico simply let them in and provide for their new citizens? Have you ever read Mexican law on illegal immigration? Those same Southern and Northern doors that Central America utilized are put into effect by Mexico City. The next thing you know, the US border is looking at a real wave….. not just a Caravan”, but a title wave of people. Think it can’t happen? Why not ask the governments of Europe?  Think the enemies of the US are not pondering the continued utilization of a new and powerful weapon, the weapon of Mass Migration? Can that weapon lead to the destabilization of the US? Again, go ask the governments of Europe. Okay………………………………..here is the question. Then what?

Buffer Zones:

            What did Turkey implement to respond to what took place in Syria? Yes, they had the issue of the Kurds to deal with, but does anyone doubt the Turks did not decide to hold this mass movement of people, as much as possible inside the nation they were coming from? Did not the Turks play the game against the EU, the same EU that looked down their noses at the Ottomans, that led to these mass migration movements into the EU? A few million people in a very short period of time. Just how would the US deal with such an event? Could the US send them to the growing list of Sanctuary Cities? Well, we’ve seen how that proposition turned out. What does the US do with a real wave of people heading North? If that’s not hard enough to contemplate, try adding a completely destabilized Mexico!

            I will tell you what the operational response is to such events and it’s a time-tested concept utilized throughout the world. Buffer Zones. Buffer Zones are the desperate attempt by Nation States to limit the impact of traumatic events along their geographic borders. So, the question becomes, does the US implement a Buffer Zone on US soil or on Mexican land? The reality is, many of the private land owners along the US border with Mexico already feel like they don’t really own the land they live on. Don’t believe me? Get in your car and take a drive down and asked them. Here is my last question. Does the Mexican Government go along with this plan and if not, then what?  

Contingency Planning:

            I had a great conversation today with a guy named Daniel Horowitz. You know it’s good when I am walking in the rain out on my property and I don’t worry about getting soaked. We talked about a lot of things Mexico, but there is one I decided to come back inside and hone in on. Planning. When Y2K was going to take place, I was on the development team, a joint team to include the military, for the city of El Paso. The short story was, everyone was worried about the city of Juarez walking into El Paso all at once. Sound crazy? Well, it wasn’t at the time and it shouldn’t sound crazy now. The bottom line was, we had a “plan” It wasn’t a very good one, but we had a plan. That makes me wonder; What’s the “plan”? Mexico and a few others fall apart; what’s the plan? Now, some, the military, FEMA, DHS, they love to “plan”? I was part of that world for years. What’s the plan? Better yet, is there a plan that has the words, “Buffer Zone” in them? Think the topic has not come up before? I have one word for you. Pandemic.

            If you are one of those people, and I am one of them by the way, that doesn’t like the concept of camps in Buffer Zones for people who are scared and mean no real harm, then you better be asking, “what’s the plan”? Here is my advice to this concept of, “What’s the plan”? The US better have a plan to prevent this level of crisis from starting. If you wait until the title wave has formed, then you are going to give ground regardless of what your level of humanitarian compassion may be. The US needs to figure out a policy for the region that doesn’t allow our enemies to weaponize mass migration, because it’s a weapon they have already tested in the Middle East and they are convinced it works. Don’t believe me. One last time. Give Europe a call.

“CONFUSION” BETWEEN US AND MEXICAN TROOPS ON THE  BORDER? YA…RIGHT!  

            Well, the story goes, once again, there was “confusion” between US forces and Mexican SEDENA forces on the US border with Mexico in Texas. You see, there is this area that is nothing more than a thick brush and a small amount of water and as such, the  members of SEDENA were, “confused”. Let me take a moment here to toss the BS flag onto to field! Let me go over a few issues that made he reach for my BS flag.

1.     Calling the river, a small body of water with some brush during an event that took place during daylight. Well, whoever is trying to tone this story down, you have to do better than that.

2.     Does any Member of the Mexican military not understand the area they are working in?

3.     Do any of them not know a small river is the boundary between the two nations?

4.      Do any of the Mexican military members not recognize the uniform of the US military?

5.     Is there not a deconfliction Rep at NORTHCOM to make sure such events don’t take place?

Okay, I could go on and on, but here is my analysis of what took place and I will tell you, my thoughts are based on a, “Been there…..done that” environment on the Texas, Mexico Border.

Corruption at every level:

1.     Are there members of SEDENA who are corrupt? Yes.

2.     Are there units of SEDENA that are corrupt? Yes.

3.     Are there Unit Commanders who are corrupt? Yes.

4.     Are there senior leaders in SEDENA who are corrupt? Yes.

5.     Are there senior, political leaders in Mexico who are corrupt? Yes.

6.     Does this raise the possibility this was not just some “confused” event? Yes.

7.     Would NORTHCOM, the US Military Command for the US, do everything in its power to tone down and even make this event go away? Oh you bet they would….. Not the first time.

What Happened:

            “ The US service members reported they did not see any identifiable seals or symbols on the individual’s vehicles and couldn’t identify any patches or name tapes on the uniforms except for the Mexican flag.

1.     Mexican Special Ops working the border area in a “sanitized Ops? BS!

2.     Without deconfliction at NORTHCOM? BS!

3.      No vehicle markings, what unit’s motor pool did they come from?

Right about now, anyone who has ever worked an operational mission is reading this and saying, BS! Who isn’t saying BS? Why, the US government. Interesting.

Not my First Rodeo:

            I’ve talked about this before but let me go over it again so you get a better feeling where I’m coming from. Several years ago, I was part of a CODEL, Congressional Junket, that took place in West Texas. In that CODEL, civilian Law Enforcement members gave statements about an event with shots fired along the “river”, where what seemed to be a Mexican military unit appeared to be assisting a drug movement recover a load of drugs from a sunk vehicle in the river. You know….that little bitty river with brush all around it. Unit flashes were seen on the front of the SEDENA vehicles and a whip antenna was seen next to a person who looked to be giving orders over a radio. Well….when the dust settled….the answer became, it was a drug cartel dressed to look like SEDENA, to even include the proper vehicles and markings. Yes…..BS…..complete BS…not “Confusion”. But then, the whole event just went away. Does this story have some commonality to what took place on April 13^th of this year? Could This Sanitized team have been providing route security for a major drug movement? Let me ask you something. When you hear of a large surge along the border, do you ever stop to think that “surge” is preplanned? Is it designed to draw the attention of the US assets in the area in order to move a “load” across somewhere else? Just ask any civilian Law Enforcement or Border Patrol member who works the Texas / Mexico border and see how many stories you immediately get back.

Look. This was not “confusion” but, “confusion” is the easiest answer to the political leaders who are always trying to dance around the issue of the corruption in Mexico. Is the entire Mexican military corrupt? No. Is it nearly impossible to distinguish who is and who is not? Yes. I remember when a good friend from the DEA told me, “If the Op includes SEDENA, be careful”.

What took place on April 13^th? I think most of us who have worked that area know. Is it the first time? No. Will it be the last? No.

            SIDE NOTE:

                        US forces being armed with a side arm? Someone needs to be fired over that decision.