AGAIN… THE FEAR OF “BAGHDAD FALLING” IS TOPIC NUMBER ONE.

Several months ago, the topic of Baghdad falling to the IS forces was contemplated, disused and then brushed aside.

“Just too hard to do….. Defenders of Baghdad are far more capable than the ‘rest’…. IS forces can’t get there”….

Yep, all of these excuses, were given as to why this catastrophe would not take place.

At that moment in time, my theory, the one I thought had more credibility than the rest, was simple.

I.S forces didn’t really want Baghdad, nor did they need it!

Well, that was then and this is now.

What changed?

What made them change their minds?

If you guessed the US, you win the prize!

When the US decided, “it had to do something”, something is exactly what took place.

When you step to the mic and state, “ we will destroy them”, you need to be prepared for an enemy who’s resolve just jumped quantitatively!

Go where your enemy is not!

Strike where your enemy would never anticipate and thus be unprepared for.

What was the theory of the air strikes?

The “Coalition” would degrade IS’s ability to attack!

The air strikes would force the IS forces into a defensive mode.

They would “melt” into the population and find another day; heck, even I accepted part of that one.

Western War Planners are often experts on the history of warfare.

So, how is it the “Coalition” didn’t realize the IS forces may win the phycology of the conflict by moving on the golden ring…… Baghdad?

Can, they take Baghdad?

If they move into parts of Baghdad, can they hold what they take?

What will the Persians do?

What will the Coalition do?

10,000 IS forces near the gates of Baghdad?

Kobane sits at the brink of capture?

Islamic State Forces executing a true Two Front Conflict!

Where is the confidence of those left in Baghdad?

When does the panic set in for the Assad camp?

As I write this post, one fact stands nearly undeniable.

The Islamic State Forces are not only winning on the ground; they are winning the perception war.

Will they take Baghdad?

Will the forces holding the city crumble?

Will the Persians just stand by like the Turks?

Who is going to stop the Islamic State Forces?

Is this really going to happen?

As bad as this crisis is, if we begin to see street to street fighting in the city limits of Baghdad, the panic throughout the region will increase dramatically.

Yes, the siege of Baghdad is back on the table, but whose fault is that?

How many times has this comment been made?

“Can it get any worse”?

If you are wondering what I think, here is my answer.

We are about to see the Persians place a new price tag on the nuclear talks.

If we write that check , will the Israelis allow it to be cashed?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/12/10-000-ISIS-militants-near-Baghdad-Report.html

WHERE DID THE TURKISH "RESOLVE" GO?

Who was demanding "Western" intervention in Syria three years ago?

Well, one of the voices was sounding from the Turkish capital.

But, to be honest, Turkey is just one of several who have said one thing, but done another.

So, what is the issue as of today?

Why has the Turkish not stepped in to remove the IS threat in Northern Syria?

Is it because the IS forces are keeping the Kurds occupied?

Well, that is one of several reasons.

Are the forces of IS becoming more than just a concern for Turkey?

Yes.

Is Turkey holding out for more concessions from the West?

Is Turkey waiting for someone to promise there will be no Kurdistan?

Well, if so, that it's an easy deal given the history of the West abandoning the Kurds in the past.

Is Turkey concerned of being caught in the quicksand known as Syria?

Well, I would bet you the Turkish military leaders are voicing just that issue.

Are the Turks waiting for a "partner" in a long talked of, "Safe Zone"?

If so, that will be a long wait!

Are the Turks worried of not looking as professional as the region's image of them?

Can anyone imagine if the mighty Turk military was to look anything but modern in a pending conflict?

What would the regional image be then?

So, what is the real incentive for the Turks to step onto Syrian land?

Oh ya..... what is the conversation between the Tsar and the Turks on such a topic?

Why won't the Turks attack?

Well; pick one of the topics above and you have a good chance of being correct.

Is there a chance of a game changer?

Yes.

Islamic forces killing Turks!

If that happens, look out!!!!

Could someone arrange such an event?

Stranger things have happened before!!!!

THE DRAGON… ZOMBIES AND HONG KONG.

Ok, so what in the heck does the current Ebola scare in the US have to do with the protest in Hong Kong?

Great question and one I will have fun playing with!

First off, let me get a few “scene setters” out of the way.

How long as the Dragon been worried about a Chinese version of the Arab Spring…Tunisian virus… yep… I still call it that.

Well, go back and look at my post from the week the Arab Spring started and you will see my answer even back then.

Short answer…. From day one!

Does the Dragon believe what is taking place in Hong Kong is their fears coming true?

Yes.

Does the Dragon realize the similarities to Tiananmen Square only reside on the protester’s side?

Yes.

What does that mean?

It means the method of dealing with Hong Kong cannot be replicated.

Why?

Easy….. times have changed and there is this thing called “Social Media”.

Can the Dragon shut down ALL abilities to utilize social media in Hong Kong?

Yes, but at the price of bringing the city to a standstill.

A modern day city’s life blood is the internet and Hong Kong dies without it.

So, the similarities between Hong Kong and Tiananmen rest solely with the protestors.

So, what options does the Dragon really have?

Ah….. Here is where the story gets very interesting.

Option one:   Do nothing!

Yep… That is not going to happen.

Option two:

Wait it out!

Large, inner city protest seem to have a life cycle of about five or six days, depending on the weather.

After that, the fun seems to fade and many people have to head back to work/ school.

Also, crowds also begin to cycle on a 24 hr clock.

Large numbers leave during the day to get rest.. go to work.. or get homework up to date.

During those predictable cycles, the authorities can move in and then deny the reentry to the primary protest zone.

The problem then becomes, the crowds get upset.. the numbers increase and then a new location is chosen…back to square one…. Case study… Egypt!

As for the Dragon, the issue here becomes “image” and in the land of the Dragon, image is everything.

 This option shows the Dragon to be weak, unable to solve its problems and indecisive!

All three of those are unacceptable to a Dragon dreaming of ruling the free world.

So!

Option three:

Crush the resistance!

Tiananmen Square round two!

Many have stated for days now that option is “off the table” for the Dragon!

Most have commented the Dragon’s image would suffer a huge economic blow… a blow they would not risk!

Enter the Zombies!

Back in the Dragon’s lair, Beijing, the plan is set.

Wait…

Watch..

Listen…

Is the West growing more and more worried about the Zombies of Ebola?

CNN/// FOX… MSNBC.. if anyone watches MSNBC, and yes BBS all continue the live coverage of Ebola in the US!!!!!

“Are there more… How did it happen… is the nation ready… will it spread to Europe”?

The story feeds upon the tabloid press as the public grows more worried of anyone who might cough.. spit or fall down!!!!

The Dragon determines it has a few days left…it can wait… the hunger to strike is tamed by the knowledge the eyes of the world may be shifting towards the Zombies!

It just needs the Western Media to do the Dragon’s bidding.. keep scaring the US population.

Keep the US leadership worried about elections in five weeks.

Keep pulling the world’s eyes away from Hong Kong and the Dragon’s victim.

Oh yes… and the Dragon has learned a lesson from the Tsar and his actions in the Ukraine.

When it comes time to swoop down on the masses in Hong Kong, be dressed like the Hong Kong Police.

For you see, there is no Dragon there that day..

No.. .The Dragon is back in it’s lair!

And on that day, the Dragon will say, It respects the right of the Hong Kong Authorities to insure the safety of the good people of Hong Kong!

How many bodies will the Dragon consume?

Will anyone in the West really care as they peek out from behind the curtains to see if Zombies are walking the streets yet?

SO.  WHAT BECAME OF THE UKRAINIAN “CRISIS”?

Took off the past few days to get a few other things out of the way, but it’s a new month and time to get back to business.

Ukraine?

Where did that story go?

Yes the flavor of the week is Islamic State with a side dish of Ebola, but why did the Ukrainian conflict fall off the media radar?

Lack of blood and violence?

Well, that has a huge impact on the attention deficit public, but are there other reasons?

Here is one everyone might want to try on for size; the Tsar!!!!

From the very beginning of this Ukrainian story, I’ve stuck to my guns on what is taking place.

What is taking place in the Ukraine is no “accident”.

The “end state” of this adventure will be based upon what the Tsar desires and it appears he desires a halt in-between phases!

If we look at what was taking place just prior to this current “calm”, we will understand the big question.

Just prior to the Russian deployment of forces into South Eastern, the Pro  Tsar forces were about to be routed.

Was that an outcome the Tsar was willing to accept?

Hardly!

Had the process been executing according to the Tsar’s plan?

Well, no… but such is the case of many complex, strategic plans!

What happened next was all too predictable.

The Tsar simply up the stakes and the West closed their eyes.

With Eyes Wide Shut, the West accepted what they didn’t want to face, Russian forces in Ukraine.

So, with a plan not going as “planned”, the Tsar placed his plan back on track.

Let’s face the facts.

If the Pro Putin forces would have been routed, the Tsar would have been facing the greatest failure of his career.

With the reality of Russian forces on the move in Southern Ukraine and the Tsar’s resolve to take the event to any level necessary to succeed, the West did the only thing it could do; tell the Ukrainian government to stop!

As of today, where does the event stand?

I’ll give you a hint.

Winter is nearly on the region and the Pro Putin forces now have a secure section of the Ukrainian East to reorganize from.

Could they have done the same from just inside the Russian border?

Yes, but the message / perception would have been all wrong for the Tsar…..Defeat!

This Winter the Pro Russian forces will be hard at work……hard at work of plotting the next phase of the Tsar’s plan to retake the region.

Does that mean things are quiet for now?

Yes..

Is that music to Western ears?

Yes..

Are the dangers in the Ukraine or Eastern Europe over?

Give Poland a call and ask them.

YEMEN AND WHAT REALLY MATTERS TO SAUDI?

Once again, and predictably I might add, the stability of Yemen moves to the forefront, or at least from the Saudi perspective that is.

I was reading the attached story by Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor and was struck by a comment that I had not considered.

In the eyes of the GCC leadership, the Persians now control four historically significant Arab capitals: Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and now Sanna.

So, what is truly more important to Saudi and thus the GCC?

The defeat of a proxy organization, admittedly a dangerous one, or the Persians?

Can a Sunni based movement be manipulated by the Persians to kill fellow Sunnis?

Yes and it is already taking place.

Can this same movement be utilized to disrupt the Persian plans?

Yes, just look at Iraq.

So, in the eyes of the Gulf States, where is the real threat?

Are the events in Yemen more important than the events in Syria?

Depends on who you ask.

What will the new event in Yemen lead to?

Did the GCC members take part in the mission to bomb Syria for the sake of the West?

Did the GCC take part in order to show the Persians they have the will and the ability to fight in an integrated fashion?

If yet another “statement” needs to be made by the Saudis and the GCC, will it be made in Yemen?

Will the Peninsula  Shield forces be used in Yemen?

Where to the Saudi F15 /16s fly next?

If the mission is to “destroy” the “Terrorist”, does only the West get to define who the Terrorist are?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/26/Iran-follows-its-agenda-while-the-Arabs-are-distracted.html

AS ASSAD TAKES CREDIT, WILL THE “COALITION” HOLD?

 As you read this link, skip down to the section called, “right direction”.

Ask yourself this question.

If Assad continues to paint a picture of the West “supporting” him, backed by the US State Department admitting to communicating with him, will the key Arab partners stay?

Can a Sunni government withstand the public press of Assad taking credit for the “cooperation” with the Alliance?

What really gets me is the implied point of, “it’s a good thing they told us and didn’t harm our civilians”!

Remember, only Assad is allowed to butcher his servants, I mean civilians.

How Assad would shape this Western Alliance was the top concern of GCC leadership when they signed up to the US plan and I am sure it’s even more of a topic today.

Can the Iranians and the Tsar get Assad to make even more aggravating statements thereby stressing the US “Alliance”, you bet!

Remember what the Russian strategic goal is here; Western / US / failure in the Middle East.

Will the Coalition Hold?

We are going to find out soon.

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/09/24/U-S-officials-issue-warning-on-Syria-based-threat.html

DOES THE “CAMPAIGN” AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE FORCES LEAD TO WHAC A MOLE?

So, some type of “campaign” is now underway in Syria and rest assured, no matter how well thought out the process was developed by the Pentagon, the politicians will figure out how to screw it up!

Now, that is not to say whatever the planners came up with would work, given one of the oldest rules of conflict; they enemy gets a vote”!

Whac a Mole:

Some have talked about the possibility of this phenomenon taking place once a true “campaign” began against the Islamic State forces, but the reality is, it most likely will take place and it could prove to be the undoing of the “ campaign”!

Leadership of the Islamic State movement understands they have no ability to conduct a  ‘force on force” conflict with their attackers.

They do realize the ability to show they survived and can still strike fear in the hearts of their attackers is the absolute definition of victory.

If 30 days into a Billion Dollar Air Campaign, by the way, don’t fool yourself into actually thinking this is only an Air Campaign, yet another innocent individual loses their head on You Tube, where does the public opinion go?

  If one of the Allies of this new “campaign” looks to their South as sees an out of control Crisis in Yemen, what is the reaction?

If a Jordanian national is kidnapped and executed, what then?

If an IS cell attacks in France?

Is everybody in; all the way in?

The West and its Allies have made their initial move.

It won’t be the last action on the Alliance and it will not be the end of the Islamic State movement.

It’s one thing to say, “this will be a ‘long’ campaign.

It’s another for the public in multiple nations to understand it; just ask GW.

Did the enemies of the Islamic State movement just kick off the next round of “Whac a Mole”?

How many locations can the Western Alliance bomb?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/23/The-fall-of-Sanaa-What-next-for-Yemen-.html