HAMAS.. .A HOUSE STILL DIVIDED??? NO SURPRISE THERE!!!

Over the past few days, I've been watching to judge just how desperate a situation Hamas has become with the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Well, as is always the case in the Middle East or governance anywhere in the 21st century world for that matter, the answer is complicated!

Time and time again I've addressed the issue of the "House Divided" that is called Hamas and how  the Western world really doesn't grasp how un-unified Hamas really is.

So, when I came across the attached story, one that is spot on, I decided to stop waiting to see what Hamas post Morsi move would be and just take a stab at it.

Now, the storyline behind the ongoing conflict between Meshaal and Zahar is a study in Arab "relationships" in it' self, but Shlomi Eldar really drives home a important point in this story, although it may be one he didn't really realize.

When we look at the movement called Hamas and we do so from Western eyes, it's easy to overlook the inter conflicts that are deliberately kept from the open, outside media.

Most of us realize Hamas is a movement without a true "Mother Ship" ... .a title once held by the Muslim Brotherhood when it comes to talking of Hamas.

Where should the movement turn and who should lead the turn; well that realizes a level of tension that has made the whole movement relatively ineffective.

It takes two hands to count the number of "leaders" that are all trying to Captain the ship and it seems none of them are willing to sail in the same direction.

You can also bet the behind the scene support to this dysfunctional family is hard at work and we all know what that effort is being lead by.

In the big picture of what is taking place in the region, this dysfunctional family issue may not seem like an important issue, but trust me when I tell you that it is.

If we back off the picture and look at the big moving parts for the whole region over the past sixty days, one thing becomes clear.

The Sunni juggernaut seems to have lost a great deal of momentum.

The Western world has been second-guessing the "support" movement given the strong possibility of the more radical Sunni's taking over the movement.

Any event that takes the wind out of the sails of the Sunni ship right now just might be by design.

Is anyone really going to attempt to unify the Hamas movement?

Well, my bet is not anyone from the Western side of the world.

Finally; what happens if the Sunni movement falls apart?

Does peace break out in the region?

Don't get your hopes up and when it comes to a dysfunctional Sunni movement; be careful what you ask for!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/al-zahar-ties-hamas-iran.html

  

THE ATTACK ON LATAKIA AND HOW DOES THE TSAR RESPOND?

Well, the story goes on the 4th or 5th of July the Israeli military attacked a storage facility holding Yakhonts anti ship missiles destine for Hezbollah ownership!

Here is the million dollar question, and it's not....did it happen!!!

Why did Assad and his supporters not say a thing?

Did they not believe it was Israel that destroyed the building?

Did they really buy the story by Hezbollah that the rebels carried out the attack?

Is Assad and his followers just too reluctant to admit Israel once again successfully penetrated the so called, " formidable", air defense network.. a net work especially set up to protect Assad's home turf... Latakia?

Nobody expects the IDF to come right out and take credit for this alleged attack, but where is the, "we will attack you if you do it again speech from Assad?

You know, the one he gave the last time the IDF made him look like a fool!!!

If you will recall, the Assad government had little to say when the IDF took out their nuclear research center a few years ago.

So, is history repeating itself; For the FOURTH TIME?????

Ok, so the story goes on to say the explosions seemed, "too small" to be IDF attacks?

Really?

Does anyone really think the IDF doesn't have the ability to limit the size of the destruction and change the attack profile this time around?

In the region, most of the militaries are technically incompetent by Western standards, but unfortunately for Assad, that statement doesn't apply to the IDF!

What I find even more interesting with this story is the fact Hezbollah made a extremely lame excuse as to what happened and how!

Why?

Why are they not standing up and shouting from the roof tops on how this attack will not go unpunished?

I will tell you why and it's a message they understand all too well.

Hezbollah, like many others in the region, know the price they will pay if they do actually retaliate and that is why they are making up such asinine  stories such as attacks from other  Army installations near by.

Ok, here is the next interesting point.

Notice the standard, " former senior Israeli Security Official", statement!

If you want to quietly take credit for something, then send someone out to the media that has no real link to a current administration.... it's how the world works now days!

So, let us assume the Sunni Rebels, who are struggling to hold onto Homs and their slice of  Aleppo had no capability of striking this alleged storage facility of "red line" weapons.

Let us assume the IDF did exactly what they claimed they would do if these same weapons began to travel to the hands of Hezbollah.

Why would the footprint of the attack appear so different?

Why would this attack deliberately not be as obvious as the others?

Answer, my opinion.... the Tsar!!!!

Don't forget the Tsar gave Israel's leader a verbal, "don't do it again" speech not three months ago!!!!

And the Israeli answer was, "watch me"!!!!

This leads me to my final issue.

What does the Tsar think of this event?

Does he believe it was the IDF?

Does he know if the "red line" weapons were in that storage facility?

I can count on one hand how many people in this world have the suaveness to "dance" with Mr. Putin...

Mr Netanyahu is at the top of that dance card!

What happens next?

Does this attack become verified?

If it does, how does the Tsar react to Israel saying to him, " I told you so"?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/did-israel-bomb-latakia-last-week

BOMBING IN BIR AL-ABED... DOES IT MATTER WHO DID IT?

All day long the "who dune it" game was being played by all the talking heads in the media.

There was one group who wasn't playing this meaningless charade... Hezbollah!!

Since the day it became official, months after they really showed up, that Hezbollah was active inside Syria, everyone that knows the region predicted what was going to take place.

Today's bombing is a poor excuse for the timeless, " I told you so"!

I'll go back to my strategic comment of how the Sunni fighters will attempt to force Hezbollah to concentrate on their "home front", thus drawing their commitment and support away from actions in Syria.

So, was today's bombing an act of revenge or was it a strategic attempt to disrupt the Hezbollah base?

Yep... you got it.....it was both!!!

Now, the question some were trying to answer today centered around where the bombers Lebanese or "others/ outsiders?

Again, from the perspective of those who will seek revenge, it doesn't matter and in reality, it really doesn't matter to anyone else as well.

For the sake of time, lets get passed the "who / why" phase and get to the "so what" category!

So what?

What does it matter this bombing took place today?

Does it mean there will be more?

Silly question.

Does it indicate the decay of Lebanon!

Yep!!

Will it pull Hezbollah support from Syria?

Nope!!!!

Will Hezbollah leadership feel the heat from it's support base for dragging their hometowns into the crisis?

Yep!!!

Here is the deal; Hezbollah, as I said weeks ago, is all the way in with little chance of pulling out.

The trap of sectarian conflict has been sprung and Hezbollah took the bait all the way when they moved into Syria.

Yes, I know all the gossip is based on how Assad's forces are making headway in Homs and moving on Aleppo and yes I realize it seems to many on the outside the civil war in Syria is turning for Assad and his Masters in Iran.

Incase you forgot, let me remind you what I predicted weeks ago when Assad seem to be gaining the upper hand.

It's one thing to take territory back from an enemy!

It's an all together different story to hold it and bring it back to any level of "normal".

The support, weapons wise, from the GCC  will have a wave effect.

Just because some of the more sophisticated tools may be showing up, that doesn't mean the tide will turn back to the Sunni fighters in a matter of a few days.

Today's events involving Hezbollah are just the beginning of weeks or months of more bad news and more pressure from the home front to come home.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jul-10/223166-specter-of-strife-looms-over-lebanon-after-blast.ashx#axzz2YbF69eGx

HAMAS AND THE BROTHERHOOD.... NOW WHAT?

Well, it seems the leadership of Hamas has yet another crisis on their hands and again, it's one they knew, or should have known, was coming!

You can bet many key leaders were reluctant to run from Damascus and the Iranian support for the sake of a fledgling Muslim Brotherhood movement stumbling to the forefront in Egypt.

But, like any strong Father figure, when the MB gave Hamas the preverbal, "it's time to come home now" speech.....well.... Hamas lowered it's head... and did as they were told.

There is not a single member of Hamas' leadership that could not see the hand writing on the wall when the Egyptian Military began to limit and to some degree control the flow moving by the  tunnels into Gaza.

Ok, long story short, Hamas has lost a critical supporting pillar now that the MB in Egypt is struggling for their own survival and the GCC partners will not be as sympathetic to the Hamas plight as everyone might think.

Once again the classic, "Law of unintended consequences" has taken place; well... maybe!!!

Does anyone really believe the Egyptian Military did not contemplate the impact on Hamas that taking down the MB would create?

Oh ya... what took place this week????

Yep.... more military troops into the Sinai..

Remember what I said last week..

Both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Military, and their GCC partners, had plans incase things in Egypt decayed to the point they finally reached.

Hamas can be added to that list of "planners"...

Did Hamas anticipate what has come of the MB?

Most likely?

So, that begs the question..... what is that plan?

Lets see how long it takes to become visible.

Here is a hint........ if it involved support from GCC members......well....... I also said last week, " no plan survives contact with the enemy"!!!

EGYPT.. TURKEY .. SYRIA.. AND THE NEW "VIRUS"!!!

Well,  a great deal has happened in the past three days and just about everyone has formed an opinion in one way or another as to what may happen in Egypt.

As I said three days ago, the only thing we can really count on was and is the fact that both sides of the events in Egypt had detailed "game plans" for the events that took place.

Having said that, here are a few other undisputable facts we can bank on this  weekend.

1.  Assad, Iran and Hezbollah, once again, are more than happy to hear of turmoil near them.

Once again, the distraction of Egypt gives Assad and his supporters the cover they need to level a degree of violence on their enemies that would typically be reacted to with detailed media coverage; I.E.   the push on Homs!

Make no mistake, the concept of the Sunni dominated Muslim Brotherhood being openly attacked in Egypt is more than music to the Shia ears of the region.

It's also should come as no surprise the MB and it's followers were more than ready to blame "others" in the region for the events in Egypt.

2.  Turkey and it's Islamist based government is more than worried about the events of Egypt.

Incase anyone has forgotten, it was only two weeks ago the streets of Turkey's major cites were full of violent protester......an event that shook the Turkish's governments confidence to the core!!!

From the early days of the "Arab Spring"///// Tunisian Virus, a nickname I will not give up on, it was clear the hijacking of the youth lead, sectarian mainstream was at some point going to get their collective feet under them!

If you go back and read my post from two years ago, you will see my opinion then and by the was still is the real shakers and makers of these revolts would eventually realize they had been hoodwinked by the Islamist!

It was a painful lesion for the youth of Iran shortly after their revolution over 30 yrs ago and it's a lesson the people of Egypt have taken to heart.

You see, the MB has always known they had a narrow window of opportunity to shape the Egyptian government in a way that would leave them in power for years to come.

The MB knew from the fist days of the revolution two years ago, they could deceive the Egyptian people, people who were scared of what was taken place in their country, and that allowed the MB to slip into power.

It's the reason the MB started a full court press to change the Egyptian military and the laws of the land before the Egyptian people got their preverbal act together.

So now, the Islamic government of Turkey watches as a new even more deadly version of the Tunisian Virus overtakes Egypt; a version of the "Virus" that, this time, not even the well discussed Islamic leaders can hide from.

Is Turkey worried about what is taking place in Egypt?

Oh... more than you can possibly imagine!!

Are the Shia joyful over the events engulfing the Muslim Brotherhood?

Silly question.

So, what is going to happen in Egypt?

More violence?

Yes!!

More economic distress?

yes!!

If you want to gauge how bad things might get for Egypt, just watch the Turkish government as it chews it's fingernails to stubs.

EGYPT

CRISIS IN EGYPT  THIS ONE IS  DIFFERENT.

Ok, I've been "off the net" for two weeks and we all know a great deal has taken place in that time period. 

As much as I wanted to bang out a " Snapshot", something I've not done for over three months, I'm more convinced I need to do a down and dirty on Egypt to get my thoughts down before tomorrow's deadline!

Ok, lets get to it and let's keep this simple.

Over the past two years my opinion  of Mr. Morsi have been very, very obvious!

The same goes for the Muslim Brotherhood!

So, without going into why  Egypt has jumped back to the forefront of Middle Eastern news, let's get right down to analysis of the possible repercussions.

If there is on thing Mr. Morsi has never understood, it's how a true Democracy works and his actions today simply verify my statement.

What this man and his party, and make no mistake the MB is his party, simply don't comprehend is the responsibility of coming out the victor in a democratically held election.

Somehow Mr Morsi truly believes that just because he was duly elected, by a population that was desperate at the time, that doesn't mean you can dictate to your society what they can and cannot do for the next four years!

He and his followers lack of understanding of how a Democracy works is never more evident than when you hear the words, " if the people don't like what is going on, wait till the next election and vote him out"!!!

That's not how a Democracy works and any of us who have grown up in one knows that all too well.

Being the "Victor" in NOT a one time ticket to being a four year Dictator!

But then again, I am wasting my breath on this subject with the likes of the MB and its Puppet Morsi!

Ok, lets get away from the new Dictator of Egypt for a second and lets focus on why he is in far more trouble than many realize.

I have mentioned on numerous occasions the animosity between the Egyptian Military and the MB to include Mr. Morsi.

Early last year his plans to replace many key members of the Egyptian Military Leadership with more sympathetic, younger, followers fell short and honestly, that was the beginning of the end and he knew it!

It's the age old Golden Rule of Political Assassination ..... NEVER.....MISS!!

Everyone who pays attention to the region has been watching the every increasing hostel environment between the Egyptian Military and the MB / Mr. Morsi and none of us would have placed a bet on this event not taking place at some point in time.

Was the Egyptian Military simply "buying time"?

Absolutely!

Does that mean it has a detailed plan ready to launch?

You can bank on it.

So, is the Egyptian Military more prepared for this crisis than the MB and Mr Morsi?

Silly question!

Now, at the risk of sounding over optimistic, lets look at the issue that many talked about today and few truly comprehend.

How divided is the Egyptian population.....really?

Well, the worse possible answer is probably the true answer... about 50...50....

Will the MB simply fold tent and walk away?

Not likely!

Many "Talking Heads" on the media circus shows today have talked about the dangers this round of revolts could lead to, but few have addressed the real issue.

Here is my concern and I'm betting I am right on target.

Does anyone out there truly believe the MB has not anticipated a move by the Egyptian Military at some point in the future?

Of course they have and that is where the problem begins.

The MB has survived in Egypt's hostile political environment for over eighty years and there is a reason for that.

They are the masterful at reading and anticipating what is out in front of them!

It's the reason they were ready to take control when the revolution came to an end!

Has the MB made "inroads" with members of the Military.... the "youth"... who are often abused by their senior Officers?

Are you getting the picture yet?

Generals are only as powerful as the troops that follow them just as Dictators are only has powerful as the Generals that follow them!

Complex structure are typically most vulnerable at the lowest level; chains ....weakest link....so on and so on..... you get the picture!!!

If there is a concept the MB understands, it's the one stated above!

When Assad set out to murder his own population, he knew full well the lower level troops and even some of the mid level leaders may not follow.

It's this "theory" the MB is banking on!!!!

Honestly, it's the only chance they have!!

The youth of the MB most likely spent the past few days communicating with as much of the lower levels of the Egyptian Military as they possibly could.

Again..... the 21st century phenomenon called Social Media plays large in the internal conflicts of governance.

So, what is going to take place tomorrow?

One thing is for sure.

The Egyptian Military has and has had a plan and the MB knows this and has known this all this time.

Let, me end this by making my most basic statement.

Both sides of what is going to take place in Egypt on Wednesday have known from day one what might be coming  and both sides have planned for such an event.

Oh ya.... there is another "Golden Rule" I want to mention tonight for it fits perfectly!

No plan survives contact with the enemy!!!!

Let's see what happens in the next 24hrs.

ASSAD USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ANNOUNCED.. FINALLY!!!

Well, I was going to head back to the topic of Turkey, but the announcement on Assad's use of chemical weapons changed all of that!

Ok, first things first!

Why now?

That is the question everyone is going to ask, well, the ones that care!

Why did the US break this announcement now?

Now, some are going to say, " its a distraction for the NSA scandal or the IRS scandal"!

We all recognize governments often use "distractions" when they feel they are in turbulent waters with their own citizenship, but I'm not convinced that is the issue this time around.

Let me put it this way; does anyone think this could have anything to do with the pending attack on Aleppo and the results that could have for the Sunni Rebels?

Is Assad gaining the upper hand in his civil war about him or is the whole Syrian conflict about the region and the future of who runs it?

I know my opinion!

If you were a Sunni Rebel member and you were digging in to fight in Aleppo, how much would your attitude change if someone announced the US had declared Assad had officially crossed the Red Line?

What level of "hope" might you gain back?

Ok, it's obvious this "announcement" is far from a un-timed, uncoordinated scientifically  backed "discovery"!

Lets drive past the issue of why the announcement was made and get to what I consider the more important question.

What next?

Here is an important rule of governments making international impacting "announcements", the other side gets a chance to react!

Anticipating those possible reactions is part of the detailed work of government planning.

If we assume the US deliberated in great detail over taking this dramatic step, and it is a dramatic one, then what possible reactions did it create Courses of Action / COA's / for?

We could play, "what if" for hours on this topic, so let's stick to the "Who" and avoid the "What" for a day or two.

Here is my list of "who" is going to have something to  say and then have something to react with.

Assad:

Words.... and more words.. as he stands by for his Master's to give him his next set of instructions.

The Persians:

Words... as they stand by and wait for "guidance" from their "Big Brother"!!

Hezbollah:

Words... and the extreme worry they have been sold down the river by the Persians.

The Tsar: 

If we assume the US has talked to the Russian about this announcement prior to making it, then we have to assume they ether agreed or disagreed.

If they disagreed, what will be the reaction?

If they agreed, what will the Tsar's message to the Persians be?

Bottom line; understanding this announcement is going to have implications for the battle of Aleppo is a given.

The saga of Syria and in reality the Sunni / Shia Civil War just took a turn.

What direction and with what implications, we will have to see.

A blinding flash of the obvious just took place, but then again, timing is always the key in international politics.

You can bet on one thing.

Mr Egodan is more than happy to see this dramatic event take place just a day or two before he may have to drop the hammer on his own people.

Everyone loves a distraction at the right point in time!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22899289