MALI AND ALGERIA... WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON?

For the past several days I have avoided the conversation of Mali and the events in Algeria..

But, now that some of the more important facts about the Gas plan attack have worked their way out, now might be a good time to talk about both topics.

fist off, most of the common folks in the world are stilled more than puzled as to why the French decided to intervene in Mali.

Yes, true there was a UNSC vote on actions for the region, but that doesn't explain the speed at witch France jumped in with both feet; something that is going to prove march harder to sell as time goes on.

I've read and heard a wide range of "reasons" the French government took the actions they did and some of them are not even worth covering.

One aspect of this action still has me a little more than puzzled; the French Military Command!!

Now, it's more than likely the French leadership have given their military more than ample warning of their intent to launch into the quagmire that is known as Central Africa, but the hast that they did so.... well.. I have a hard time believing their Military condoned that part of the concept.

The classic question became the first one that was asked by many, such as me!

"What is the end state"????

What was France looking to do?

Rid Central Africa of Islamic Fundamentalist?

Well, they and others should have thought of that before they allowed the entire weapons inventory of Libya to be hauled off by anyone with a pickup truck!!!

As of this morning, the storyline out of France continues to be their desire to rid Northern Mali of the AQ backed organizations!!!

In reality both these goals are about the same on the lunacy  scale!!!!

Ok, for the sake of time, let me cut to the chase!!

For the life of me, and many like me, I can't understand what France's leadership was thinking and we are probably only a week or two away from the French people really starting to push the issue!

One event was bound to happen and it only took two days for it to show up.

The age old saying of, " The Enemy of my Enemy" became the battle cry of all four groups the French are up against; oh ya.. good luck my French friends with the "crack" Troops who are coming to work along side you in Mali... ragtag units from third world ragtag militaries... I've been down that road before!!!!

Ok, lets not waste anymore time wondering why this fiasco has taken place in Mali.

Let's spend a few minutes hitting the "big picture" issues of what this newly formed crisis could mean to the rest of us, much less France!!

As I said early, the fall of Libya is the root cause of the disaster that is now called Central Africa... as if Central Africa was not already a big enough disaster!!

Here is another part of that statement that needs to be repeated..... UN and the rest of us have a big part of the blame based on the outcome of Libya....

I was never sure what " vision" the West had for post Libya and it's clear that lack of vision was just one example of a series of visionless events!

Ok, enough of the Monday Morning Quarterbacking.... back to what this could mean to us.

Mali will not have a definitive event to mark the success or failure of France's blunder!

France will run out of public support and money much faster than it will run off multiple battle hardened Rebel groups!

France will also be hard pressed to find "willing" partners from any non Third Word Countries....

The cost of yet another " operation" with the Middle East still in the center of a full blown crisis, is not going to be well received by the West or the UN.

As is always the case, the UN is fast to vote but slow to move and the French somehow forgot this!!

Here comes the really important topic and it's one that just showed it's ugly head in Algeria this week.

Will the actions of yet another old Colonial power / France / have repercussions and will it cause unification of groups?

I think you already know the answer to that question Mr Obvious!!!

What did " we" do and why did we do it??

Really good questions that nobody is going to answer anytime soon!!!!

Where is this all going?

Another excellent question that nobody and I mean nobody has the answer for!!

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21127646

IRANIAN "REDLINES" NOTHING NEW HERE!!

Okay, the fact that Khamenei has apparently made it clear once again their feelings towards the current government of Syria is nothing new.

As is the case when most political statements are made, the question becomes what was said but when it was said and more importantly what was the true audience for the message?

No one understands the current condition of Assad in Syria better than the Iranians!

Once knowledge this fact, we may begin to have our answer as to the timing of this statement.

Another interesting feature of this announcement was the typical, "the message within the message"!!!!

For the Iranians to once again speak to the issue of the concerns and the rights of the Syrian people can only have one of two meanings.

One, the process of appeasement while not actually bending on any issue is most likely a goal of Iran.

Secondly, hinting to others that Iran is willing to see someone other than Assad in power is also most likely a goal of the Iranians.

Both of these "messages" have very limited scope and even more limited room for maneuver in the eyes of the Iranians.

It might be that perhaps time to time the Iranians almost on a calendar schedule feel compelled make statements and compromising manner, but inserting the verbiage of "red lines" is also a message that cannot be lost.

Now, true journalism something Iran knows nothing about, which sparked a question of repercussions of crossing Iranian redlines.

If Khamenei is going to play statements into the world press about "red lines", and someone is surely to ask, "if crossed what are you willing to do about it"?

So, the timing and theme of this announcement, as is always the case of Iran, is suspect!

Was this a another example of "a gentle reminder" or has Khamenei decided to start a new phase within the Syrian crisis?

Some of the eternal optimist might see this comment is yet another example of "an opportunity"!

My gut tells me, once again the optimist will be slapped into reality! 

A THIRD INTIFADA???? WHAT WOULD IT MEAN THIS TIME AROUND?

It's undeniable that the rumor mill of a possible third Intifada is becoming more and  more prevalent throughout the region.

If we put aside trying to figure out just how possible this could be an concentrate on it was to happen what would it mean, there are some interesting changes since the second event almost 12 years ago.

Here are a few interesting issues that need to be considered as anyone anticipates a future event.

The physical barriers that have been placed by the Israeli government will make the infiltration of suicide bombers much more difficult to accomplish; but creativeness is a trait of the Palestinians!

Creating chaos outside of these barriers may not have the same impact as they would inside the major towns and cities but given the 24 seven 365 day year news coverage and the overwhelming increase of social media since the last Intifada the impact might be psychologically just as severe as in the past.

On the topic of the relationship, or the lack thereof, between Hamas and Fatah it will be interesting to see who would win the public relations contest between the two with the Palestinian people.

The idea that Hamas and Fatah would jointly execute a third Intifada is simply not realistic, at least not at this time!

Interesting enough, I would anticipate both groups would struggle with maintaining control of a modern day/social media driven Intifada.

The theory that such an event could spin out of control there by  limiting the influence of both Hamas and Fatah is more than realistic.

Egypt would be another interesting part of a third Intifada this time around!

How would the Muslim brotherhood / Mr Morsi leverage such an event?

With the Egyptian government even support such an uprising in the near future?

Remembering that the Muslim brotherhood seems to have a "master plan" for their operations in the region would they condone a Palestinian driven uprising just now?

How about the Iranians?

What would be their role/influence/reaction to a third Intifada?

Like the Egyptians, is this something they would support right now or would it do them more harm than good and quite honestly could they impact events is this taking place one way or the other?

And what about Syria?

Would Assad see such event as "Manta from Heaven"?

The distraction value would be priceless from Assad's viewpoint.

His problem is, he's lost virtually all influence with any Palestinian group and although he may profit by such an event the danger would be any repercussions would be uncontrollable by the Syrian government.

Simply put, Syria would be along for the ride one way or the other.

Next, Lebanon?

 We cannot mention the repercussions for Lebanon, without factoring in ever imposing Hezbollah!

 The fallout of a third Intifada for Lebanon would be extremely dangerous at a minimum.

I'm quite confident that the weight of the Syrian crisis stacked with the weight of the third Intifada in the region would be far more than the fragile Lebanese government could withstand.

Now, for the most interesting topic   from my viewpoint.

What would be the role of the "Dayton Battalions"?

An interesting concept that I've never been confident the correct move.

In my opinion, these units were developed with the support of the US and others for the sole purpose of countering Hamas and the attempted takeover of the West Bank.

Yes, it is true these units on a day-to-day basis work well with Israeli forces, as well as can be expected.

But, in open conflict, predominantly in the West Bank, where would the loyalties of these young Palestinian paramilitary police come down?

How embarrassing would it be to see the IDF having to engage and destroy units that were vetted by the Israelis and trained by the US in Jordan?

Well, it's easy to figure out they third Intifada will most likely be nothing like the first or the second.

Times of changed, alliances have changed, capabilities had changed and this is all placed into an environment that is already on a regional crisis stage.

Predicting actions and impacts of the third Intifada based upon the history of the previous two would be a drastic mistake for all parties.

So, the rumors of a possible third event seem to percolate with each passing day, but who would support it, how would it be supported, how would it execute and most importantly how would it spread; these are the real issues!

Never fight the next battle based upon the last battle!

I can think of no better advice for all parties involved.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/01/security-sources-a-third-intifad.html

TRUE COLORS.. SOMEBODY FOUND MORSI'S!!!!!

Ok, everyone is shocked...stunned...disappointed... and so on and so on.

Well... allow me and many others to simply say, " I TOLD YOU SO"!!!

Sometimes, the old expression of "better the devil you know than the devil you don't know" does not apply!

In my book, Morsi never fooled me many others for a single moment.

Worries me more than the comments found on record by this hatemonger is the ridiculous notion that some people would actually be surprised comments like these have been found.

Also, a special attention to the fact that when the Muslim brotherhood was questioned about these comments they had no reply!

Sometimes, as is often the case in the Middle East, the no reply answer is the answer.

So the question now becomes, what to do about it?

Is there a price for Egypt for discovering such an attitude by its leader?

Actions and the repercussions of those actions; that is what leadership must consider on both sides of this argument.

Morsi's statement and feelings were well known inside of Israel, but those in Israel that believe that all roads lead to some mystical midway point of agreement should have perceived this story is a wake-up call.

You see, many of us not just the Israelis understand what we are up against with this passive, smiling movement called the Muslim brotherhood.

Now I know, the argument can be made perhaps he made these statements to win over heated supporters inside the brotherhood.

I am one of many simply would not buy this argument.

If we look at when statements were made, it's obvious that a second or third string Muslim brotherhood player such as Morsi was not contemplating a run for the throne in Egypt.

Quite frankly, what we we now have witnessed is a glimpse into the past and the present unfortunate the future of where Mr. Morsi's feelings truly rest.

I wouldn't want to be the one that has to go to Congress and convince the more conservative members that the military flow of support Egypt needs to continue.

It appears Mr. Morsi is learning a lesson that many in his generation continue to struggle with.

In the 21st century when you strive to be in the public limelight, every comment, every press release and truly every conversation in the open public must be carefully thought out for you never know who is listening and nowadays more importantly videoing!

If the silence from Mr.Morsi continues and someone has integrity to continue to ask the question as to why he may be statements, then there will have to be repercussions at some level at some point in time.

Just imagine if this would've been a US politician caught on tape saying such absolutely absurd comments prior to election campaign.

This event get swept under the carpet, the level of disappointment will be immeasurable; and that doesn't even consider the Israeli side of the issue.

Red-handed................... that is how Mr. Morsi has been caught; but then again those that know him and his movement are hardly surprised!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-15/202389-white-house-condemns-comments-by-egypts-morsi.ashx#axzz2I3r3OC00

THE HYBRID THAT MAY JUST CATCH ON!!!

First off, let me just say that this is a very well-written article by Hussein Jemmo.

Now, let's get down to what could prove to be a critical discussion on the future of the Middle East.

I'll start by saying Jabhat al-Nusra could very well be the result of years of experimentation by Islamic fundamentalist groups that has resulted in a concept an organization unlike any of its predecessors.

The author of this article has does an outstanding job of listing  the differences that Nusra has accomplished in its operations inside of Syria.

If you were to remove the religious aspects of these accomplishments, you might begin to see what I consider to be some of the 21st century tenants of warfare.

I'm not going to get tied down in discussions of fourth-generation and fifth generation and so on and so on; that's truly irrelevant at this point.

What is clear with the actions of the Nusra groups in Syria is their desire and their focus.

In an attempt to capture some of the more important aspects of what the author of this article states are taking place inside of this organization, I would like to speak to a few specific facts.

First off, it appears Nusra is already plotting and planning for dealing with the FSA and the so-called government in exile after the fall of Assad.

The simple fact that this group realizes that their in-state goal must have a plan for dealing with the FSA and all the others who will  come rushing to Damascus proclaiming they are the new government is brilliant.

The fact that Nusra already realizes this obstacle is in itself a change from some of the old habits of Islamic fundamentalist organizations.

The next item I found more than interesting is how Nusra controlled and continues to control the "targets" they choose to engage.

Determining conflicts based upon lines of support and friendly forces to your left and right is a concept not often followed by most amateurish resistance groups.

The fact that this organization picks and chooses after careful planning when to attack, where to attack and why to attack is an indication of just how more advanced they truly are in the other groups in the Syrian resistance.

I also found it noteworthy how this organization goes to great strides to keep its operational missions as simple as possible.

Understanding the confusion and distraction that results from being tied down in  support matters after a conflict, such as other Islamic fundamentalist groups tend to do, is detrimental to the overall mission and

 Avoiding these mistakes is key to this organizations overall success.

Simply put, Jabhat al-Nusra has developed a very focused and deliberate process for engagement inside of Syria.

This hybrid organization also seems to have captured the most critical issue to their survival and future; winning the respect of the people they claim to be defending.

Calling this organization the "Islamic Army" is an indication of just how far they have come in the critical process of "hearts and minds"!

When the FSA is referred to as "thieves" their future in a leadership role inside of Syria is more than doubtful!

Now, after heaping praise upon this author in this article, I do cast doubt on the amount of credit given toal-Qaeda for providing guidance.

We're really looking at here is an Islamic fundamentalists/military operation that is based upon some very proven concepts of engagement in both kinetic warfare, guerrilla warfare and psychological warfare.

The balance has been achieved here, at least for now, is noteworthy in quite frankly disturbing to those who oppose the Islamic fundamentalist movement.

One group we can place into the "proposed" column interestingly enough is the Syrian Muslim brotherhood.

The continued success of Jabhat al-Nusra is bad news for what the Islamic fundamentalist consider "middle of the road" members such as the Muslim brotherhood.

In the never-ending world of the betrayal Nusra leaders will have to be careful in the future topic of the Syrian Muslim brotherhood.

But, if these leaders have had the vision to deal with the FSA in the near future, then they are probably well underway formatting a plan to deal with the Syrian Muslim brotherhood.

Jabhat al-Nusra is exactly what this author claims it could be; a hybrid\Phoenix\that could prove far more effective in the region than many are giving it credit for.

It took years of conflict with the Soviet Union for the Taliban to shape itself into a refined operation.

Out of the ashes of Syria comes the Phoenix???

 I bet the GCC and the MB are praying it's just a myth!!! 

It could very well be we are witnessing the "Taliban" of Syria growing into a major player right before our very eyes.

We shall see!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2013/01/jabhat-al-nusras-goals-extend-beyond-syria.html

SO WHY THIS REPORT NOW?

Now admittedly, the issue of the Iranian collection operations in the Golan Heights was not the primary purpose of this congressional report referred to in the link below.

So the question becomes, why did the Jerusalem Post pick this part of the report to write a story on?

It is not news that the Iranians have been conducting collection operations of all kinds in Syria for years.

Now, the fact that Netanyahu visited the Golan Heights, obviously as part of his election campaign, is most likely the reason the Jerusalem Post chose to do what appears to be a follow-up story from yesterday.

Both stories made a point to mention the IDF officer who question when the fly over Syria would change.

So to me, the message here seems to be one of, once again, the influence and control the Iranians have over operations in Syria.

You Syrian actions in and around the Golan Heights worried Israelis?

Obviously, the answer is yes!

Ensuring that the public is aware of Iranian collection operations in that same area is a brilliant way to bolster the public's opinion and awareness of how involved the Iranians truly are in the Syrian conflict.

The million-dollar question becomes what if anything will be done about this collection operation?

You see, if you spark the public's interest enough the public typically begins to ask questions and sometimes even hard questions.

So, if the public asked the question, "okay what are we going to do about it"?

Well! That's a good question!

As I said the beginning of this post, there's nothing new about a rating collection operations in Syria to include the Golan Heights, but there is something new about official congressional report making mention of such operations.

Overall, both stories over the past two days by the Jerusalem Post helping a picture of an Israeli government, even during time of elections, becoming more and more concerned about Syrian operations and more importantly Iranian involvement in Syrian operations on the Israeli border!

The elections in Israel are only a few days away and we can expect several more hardline, hawkish statements and news articles before it's all said and done.

The truth of the matter is, as soon as these elections are over, the intent of the Israeli government most likely become very clear and that is a message the Iranians are probably more worried about than anyone can imagine.

 http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=299499

A SIMPLE REMINDER... ISRAEL SEES EVENTS IN SYRIA DIFFERENTLY

It may seem like a simple rehashing of old news, but Israel sees the events in Syria through much different eyes than most!

The fall of the Assad regime to a movement that is obviously spearheaded by Islamic fundamentalist bent on the destruction of Israel is not a picture Israel wishes to view.

Now, some eternal optimist will probably continue to speak of the option of groups such as the Syrian Muslim brotherhood and some perceived notion of a middle-of-the-road post Assad government in Syria.

If you pay attention, you will notice Israelis do not share this same optimism.

The Israelis continue to put more effort in what the outcome might be in Syria than trying to rationalize how to minimize violence.

From an Israeli standpoint how could they possibly take any other position?

The Redeployment and further deployment of Israeli assets on the Syrian border creates more than just financial drain.

You see, the day most people celebrate downfall of Assad, will be the same day the Israelis will have to be prepared for much more hostile government in Syria.

The future does not hold a post Assad, more rational government in Syria and this is especially true for Israel.

Those lingering thoughts in the minds of the world leaders, who have contemplated and worried over a post Assad Syria, are more on the order of nightmares for Israeli leadership.

And with these worries, comes the added burden of finding leaders who either have a plan to deal with a Islamic fundamentalist driven government in  Syria or more realistically have the will to do so.

It's simple to say that complex and dangerous to realize the reality that as the resistance in Syria continues to win, the future for the region is actually becoming more dangerous than before serious Civil War.

Many have spoken of the consequences of a Syrian civil war, but the time for speaking of such concerns is now past.

What needs to take place now is deliberate, decisive coordination that leads to some level of acceptable governance in Syria....... post Assad.

Simply put, it is time to stop talking about the dangers of repercussions of the Syrian civil war.

Time is running out for setting the guidelines and limits of whatever government takes control in Syria and if you don't believe me and simply continue to watch the actions and statements of Netanyahu.

Russians and the Iranians may be willing to live with a prolonged Syria  chaos for the simple fact that keeping Hezbollah operational can still be achieved in a Syria that resembles, "Mad Max"!

Once again, one crisis continues to drive us towards another.

Un-securable Sinai place next to an un-securable Israeli border with Syria is a situation the Israelis will not be able to live with.

The head of the snake is Iran and Israel may see this post Assad Syria is only being dealt with by dealing with the snake.

As you continue to hear people calling for the downfall of Assad and insisting that some type of workable government is standing in the shadows of Turkey, be prepared for such a rosy picture never taking place.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=299463