THE FALL OF TAFTANAZ... MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU THINK!!

Although this story did seem to gather a lot of attention today, the importance of the loss of this airfield to Assad needs to be further examined.

True, it is more than just a moral victory for the rebels/freedom fighters/, but the psychological impact of this event on the Syrian government cannot be overlooked.

Taftanaz was a location a location the Syrian government did not want to lose.

Let's look at a few of the key reasons why.

For over a year now Syrian governments plan has been to limit the actual, "force on force", contact between Syrian ground forces and the opposition.

As I've said before, the logic behind this concept was and is based upon the fear of defections.

Syrian government a conscious decision to engage the enemy from a distance is often as possible and airfields such as Taftanaz made that concept possible.

Early on in the conflict, it became very clear to the opposition the strategic and psychological importance of the Syrian government Air Force bases.

Denying the Syrian government's ability to conduct air operations in the northern regions of Syria has been the goal; it appears now that goal is much closer.

Once the rebels/opposition/begin to realize they would not receive anti-air weapons and sufficient numbers to deny Syrian government air operations, it became clear the airfields had to become the primary targets.

It is for this reason the Syrian government has tried desperately to hold on to this particular location.

So what did the opposition gain tactically by overtaking this airbase?

In the process of evacuating for operating location, the items that are determined  that cannot be left behind are prioritized for removal.

Also becomes a category of items that falls into the, "too hard to move", column.

Bulk munitions, bulk fuel in simple supplies typically are left behind.

These are the rewards the resistance fighters gained by winning this airfield, tactically.

What I find interesting is the fact that the Syrian government left so many items for the resistance fighters to take.

It's not that difficult to blowup munitions storage site.

It's not that difficult to destroy bulk supplies in place.

So why didn't this happen?

The answer lies in the fact that the Syrian government forces had no plan and left too fast!

Those that could've have made decisions were probably the first to leave, leaving behind a disorganized panic filled shell of a force.

My point is this.

It's one thing to say this installation finally fell into the opposition's hands.

The true story here is what didn't happen and why.

My training in my experience tells me that this installation was evacuated by a defeated force not just tactically and physically but mentally.

There should be no pictures of resistance fighters climbing on Syrian government helicopters.

As I stated earlier, key assets should have never been left in place and if they were left in place they should have been destroyed.

These are truly the indicators of the defeated force!

 Now, let's go back to the issue of the strategic loss of this installation.

The age-old saying applies here; "bad news travels 10 times faster than good news"!

Continued news of defeat placed upon a force that has been conflict for nearly 2 years is more than devastating to morale.

Having to fly further distances does nothing but add additional strain on poorly maintained aircraft and high maintenance weapons.

Simply put, the victory belongs to the rebels and the anguish inside the Syrian government continues to grow.

I would not anticipate Syrian government attempting to retake this installation anytime in the near future if at all.

Walking the grounds of this airbase is probably still incredibly dangerous for at least another day or two.

After that, Syrian government simply cannot afford to spend the dwindling resources on revenge missions towards an installation that is already lost.

Soon and sooner than many think the battle lines will be drawn around Damascus and the question will become to the Iranians defend or simply decide to operate to the level they can achieve in a post Assad Syria?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20984142

IRAN.. LOOKING FOR MORE THAN JUST "FRIENDS"!!!!

So, Iran is looking for, "more friends", in the Middle East?

I must admit, watching Iranian and Egyptian government officials smile and shake hands as the cameras click is more than entertaining!

My bet is, this is yet another attempt by the Iranian government to convince its populace that Iranian leadership is reaching out in the region.

The concept of a Persian Shia actually trying to convince Arab Sunnis that they have more in common than others in the region is comical.

The concept of these two shaking hands and posing for the camera is similar to two Mafia chieftains kissing each other's cheek and declaring a truce.

Are the Iranians buying time or are they attempting to pacify what they consider a growing discontented public?

The ridiculous concept of the Sunni Muslim brotherhood/Arab Egyptians forming any type of working relationship with Shia/Persian Iranians can only hold an ounce of credibility if this relationship is based upon both of them plotting to outmaneuver each other.

There is no pact that binds between thieves and there is absolutely no pledge that will hold between the Sunni Muslim brotherhood and the Shia Persians of Iran.

As I have said time and time again, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", is always a short-lived event in the Middle East.

So, both stories this week, one of Palestinian unification between Hamas and Fatah and the so-called meeting between the Iranians and the Egyptians only places false hope on those silly enough to believe that either action might come true.

Watching the Iranians pull such a stunt is not near as surprising to me as listening to those actually believe these actions may have some baseline to them.

Both these nations have very different visions of how the region should look and more importantly who should rule in a few photo opportunities and hollow words will amount to nothing but wishful thinking by the pacifist watching the region.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-10/201728-syria-overshadows-iran-charm-offensive-in-egypt.ashx#axzz2Hcv6b2A4

SO.. DOES ANYONE REALLY PLAY BY THE RULES?? 

Now, everyone knows in the world of international politics, there are no real rules!

In the world of politics and governments it's not called breaking the rules or law unless it has an advantage to the one making the accusation.  

So, when one reads a story about gold being sent Iran from Turkey through the United Arab Emirates is that considered breaking the rules of agreed-upon sanctions?

It's common knowledge that several nations are currently allowed, "waiver status", on the issue of Iranian oil.

The concept that the Turkish government would be in negative growth or even economic trouble without this gold exchange with the Iranians is most likely the top cover story for allowing it to take place.

But, as is always the case, the rest of the world perceives the inconsistent rules of engagement for sanctions are an open invitation to ignore the rules themselves.

Simply put, it's the age-old saying of, "what's good for the goose is good for the gander"!

Now, it might also be that the world realizes that completely successful sanctions on the Iranians could easily push them over there acceptable limits and force them into possibly taking drastic actions to counter such sanctions.

I have no doubt this was part of the formulary that was developed for the Iranian sanctions along with ensuring that several of our critical partners are not too drastically impacted by those same sanctions.

You have to wonder how other leaders, namely the Tsar, interpret these inconsistent actions.

No one should be surprised that as emotional and dangerous as the Syrian situation may be the rest of the world must continue on with business as usual.

Sanctions are typically agreed-upon as long as they do not severely impact the nations that are being asked to support.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-09/201556-turkey-holds-plane-en-route-to-iran.ashx#axzz2HJ58ySp2

KHAMENEI STARTS TO SWEAT!!!!

It's simply amazing how sometimes statements made by other governments can sound so ludicrous to the rest of us.

I often have to remind myself that the Iranian government typically bases its press announcements upon shaping the opinions of the Iranian people and not an outside audience.

For Khamenei to warn his own people over the perils of speaking out against their own elections is an indication of just how worried he really is.

The internal conflict between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei's followers is most likely the driving force behind this statement.

Yet, he was clever enough not to name Ahmadinejad personally or his followers or the concept it now appears Ahmadinejad is developing; appealing the Iranian population.

Ahmadinejad's vision of who should replace him is 180° out from that of Khamenei's.

It appears that Khamenei is concerned Ahmadinejad is becoming more  and more successful in his public perception campaign of blaming, indirectly, Khamenei's government for the Iranian people's hardships.

Khamenei stands no chance of not allowing moderates to at least attempt to run in the next election if Ahmadinejad is even partially successful in his public information campaign.

Now, Khamenei knows he must be careful in accusing are naming Ahmadinejad are other moderates, and the title of moderate is not what I would give to Ahmadinejad, and because of that it appears he has wrapped this latest threat once again around, "the evil West"!

As the sanctions and other economic measures continue to make life ever more unbearable for the common Iranian citizen, it's going to become increasingly difficult for Khamenei to simply pass the blame down the ladder or own the, "infidels"!

My fear is this.

If Khamenei and his followers begin to realize that the pending elections could prove to be a challenge to his power, and simply warning the public not to speak ill of the election process will not be enough.

The big picture for Iran is becoming clearer with each passing day.

Life is getting more difficult in the future looks dim!

Those are two very difficult campaign pillars to try and win a non confrontational election with.

Khamenei knows he is facing real and near-term dangers!

His options are limited in full of risk!

We need to pay careful attention to statements made by Khamenei and his followers look closely at what is implied are not said and not just that the words spoken!

 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-08/201366-khamenei-tells-iranians-criticizing-election-will-help-enemies.ashx#axzz2HJ58ySp2

SANCTIONS AND IRAN........ A TOPIC REVISITED..

In the past, I have been mentioned the curiosity level some have over the concept of sanctions, specifically it comes to Iran.

Now, it's common knowledge the typical sanctions typically keep nations from acquiring items other nations have convinced the free world they should keep from them.

The question is not over the prevention of acquisition, but the concept of punishment.

In a perfect world punishing a government by restricting their ability to provide for its citizens is an option often chosen other than open conflict.

The trouble arises when the sanctions are applied against the government is not overly concerned as to the day-to-day welfare of the citizens.

In the case of Iran, the Iranian leadership is well aware of the fact that a disgruntled public, at this point in time, is a dangerous and slippery path into becoming yet another nation in the Middle East in crisis.

So, the question becomes is the concept of sanctions against Iranian government as a punishment tool going to work and if so what is the definition of, "work"!

If 80% of Iran's economy is based upon the oil industry and Iran has seen nearly 50% drop in that industry does that equate into the people of Iran rising up against the Iranian government?

Is it a given fact that the Iranian people will blame the Iranian government for the austere environment brought on by the sanctions or can they be convinced that the sanctions of the actions of nations unwilling to see Iran become successful?

I've said this before and I will say it again; we need to be very careful of what we, "wish for"!

I have no doubt the Iranian government, the true Iranian leadership, will do its level best to blame Ahmadinejad for the worsening economic conditions.

Ahmadinejad is a safe target and even worse and unlike target of the true Iranian leadership.

The question becomes, as I stated last week, does Ahmadinejad allow the blame to be placed upon his shoulders?

Well, it's easy to see the two issues go hand-in-hand.

As reports continued to grow about the impact of sanctions on the Iranian government simultaneously as reports continued to grow about the conflict inside the Iranian government, does this all process drive towards ending someone has actually contemplated?

As times get harder for the Iranian people and international affairs around the Iranian government become direr, is this all leading to a desirable ending?

Sanctions stacked on top of internal personality and ideological differences inside the Iranian government; was that or is that the plan?

Desperate nations, leaders, have historically taken desperate and often drastic actions to prevent their demise!

Wrecking the Iranian oil industry; does that answer the Iranian nuclear weapons issue?

Solving problems at the international nationstate level is never easy and I'm fairly convinced sanctions on Iran provide no simple answers.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=298719

OK... WHAT IS THE TSAR UP TO NOW?

The buildup of Russian warships in the cease of the coast of Syria is nothing new.

Most perceive these actions are nothing more in the Russian government preparing to evacuate their citizens from Syria.

Having said that, a few well-placed comments here and there by Russian leaders can go a long way toward stirring the conspiracy theorist.

On Numerous occasions I have mentioned simple fact the Tsar sees Mort statement with Syria in just the Assad regime.

So, could the gathering of the ships and the, "exercise", be more about international politics in simple evacuation planning events?

The easy answer is, the actions of the Russians have multiple meanings and purposes as is the truth whenever major countries openly display their military might.

Assad's somewhat bold speech today was undoubtedly a byproduct of the Russian naval news.

You can be confident Assad's positioning in this speech was based upon the far more communications then just seeing Russian naval ships off of his coastline.

Last week allowed to talk about it around the potential of the Russians finally conceding on the issue of Assad's future.

Anyone takes public statements by the Russian government could face value, simply does not understand how the country works.

So, are the Russians hardening their stance on the Syrian issue or is this just another stage in the process of bringing the Syrian crisis to culmination?

The Russians truly positioning their Navy block ground operations or any other operations by the West in Syria?

I don't think anyone in the Department of Defense in the United States or in Europe believes this to be true.

Strategically speaking, Syria is nowhere near the level of importance that would have Russia taking such bold actions.

So, the reality is the Russians have most likely pre-positioned there evacuation force and in the meantime perhaps added a few additional ships and a few Carefully chosen words to give this operation a, "twofer"!!!

Assad and his followers understand implicitly the presence of a few Russian naval ships will not save his government from the rebel force  that now seems to be gaining advantages of all levels.

Somewhere in the middle of this Russian/Syrian exchange the true key player/partner has been overlooked.

The Iranians!

With so many formidable warships in the region it would not surprise me in the least to see the Iranians step off the front porch and beat their chest like a miniature bully knowing full well that their big brother is nearby.

Assad solved nothing today with his speech and he and his government know it!

As a side note, although Assad counts the Iraqi government in the friend column, increasing tensions inside of this, "friend", has to be seen as yet another distraction Assad desperately needs.

The Russian Navy issue will not be the news the week for the region.

The growing hostilities in Iraq, that is the news to pay attention to in the near future.

You can bet is news item number one for the Iranians!!

http://www.debka.com/article/22663/Bolstered-by-16-Russian-warships-Assad-nixes-dialogue-with-%E2%80%9CWestern-puppets%E2%80%9D

HAMAS AND FATAH.. .THE LOVE FEST???? NOT!!!!

So, Hamas and Fatah are turning into one big happy family?

I am one of many who are more than skeptical.

If anyone truly believes that Hamas and Fatah are willing to concede power to each other some mutual level of a working partnership, then we are probably going to need to see more than just a few simple parades in the West Bank and in Gaza.

Memories fuel emotions in the Middle East and the memories of Hamas gunning down Fatah members in Gaza in 2007 still burn deep in the hearts and minds of those families that were involved.

More importantly, allowing Fatah clan members even become close to having an influence over the lucrative tunnel business in Gaza is a concept I simply cannot support.

The Hamas, Gaza is about making money and that money is made by not all members of Hamas but the chosen few.

These chosen few have no intention of sharing the wealth of the tunnel business with members of Fatah are other rival families, clans from the West Bank.

In my opinion, the parading of each other's flags on the other teams territory is truly a message of brinksmanship!

Can members of the tile walked the streets of Gaza without being fired upon, harassed or screened at?

Today's events at face value would make most people believe that the Palestinian Authority could possibly be making headway towards unification.

I can guarantee you that many knowledgeable people in the region no better.

I would be willing to bet the Israeli government knows better!

Would it make the Muslim brotherhood happy to have such unification take place?

Obviously, the answer is yes.

Is it advantageous to Hamas or two Fatah?

Well, that depends on who you ask.

You see, causes are emotional worthy thing, but money almost always wins over the day.

Gaza, is about money and Hamas is about money and power.

Simply put, I wouldn't put a lot of stock based upon parades and young teenagers waving flags.

Walk into any streetside coffee shop at 2 o'clock in the morning in Gaza or the West Bank and look for the middle-aged or elderly men sitting in a group discussing the events of the day.

Listen to see if you have been talking about the joys of unification of Fatah and Hamas!

If you can find such a conversation I would recommend that you recorded or even YouTube it because that would be far more proof that people like me in stage parades and brand-new colorful flags.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/201314101730389728.html

http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/west-bank-turns-green-as-hamas-stages-its-first-rally-in-five-years