IDLIB: NATO TESTED BY DESIGN

Let me start with the good news if there is good news. The chances of Turkey and Russia haveing an open conflict are low, very low. Yes, mistakes can be made, but the breakers are ready just in case that level of the crisis were to hit. Now, here is the bad news, this proxy war between Russia and the US / EU is not going away, and that means about a million more people heading to Europe. Today, all the talk is about the pending Pandemic and the economic crash it's creating, and that means, few are paying attention to what is taking place in Syria. So, it's time for me to touch on a topic I've addressed since the day it started. 

Recap:

Here is the short version of what I've been saying on the Syrian issue for the past several years. Let me do this in bullet statements.

1. The Russian have been angry, really angry, over the departure of Ukraine, and the West has never realized just how upset the Russians are. They've even told the West, to no avail. 

2. The concept of NATO's encroachment into the old Soviet "buffer zone", called Eastern and Southern Europe, is the key to Russia's determination. 

3.  The lifeblood of the Russian economy is fuel, oil, and gas. Controlling that industry to the extent posable is Moscow's goal. Controlling the competitors is also a goal, hence, the Middle East involvement, to a point. 

4. The best way for Russia to counter the "West" move into areas near Russia's borders is to control the one commodity they don't produce, fuel! Think Nord Stream 2 and why the US is fighting it.

5. Pushing into the events in Syria was Moscow's way of telling the West / US / they will not decide the future of the region. tit for tat. Again, think of Ukraine and NATO in Eastern Europe. 

6. Destabilizing NATO is a primary goal of Moscow. Don't underestimate this goal! 

7. The "Bromance" with the Sultan in Turkey had one goal, see item 6. 

8. Pushing the Sultan into a corner by killing over 50 of his troops since December, deliberate.

9. The killing of military members of a NATO nation, a key NATO nation, is by design. 

10. The Sultan calls to his NATO partners, and they don't answer. Moscow smiles! 

11. The Sultan does what he did last time, unleashes a MILLION people on NATO nations. 

12. Moscow makes NATO look weak,  thus new Eastern European partners begin to doubt. 

Okay. perhaps this is an oversimplification of the issues, but I'm not here to push a book on the topic. This growing crisis is by design, and Moscow is the developer. Here is the problem. Unless Moscow has developed a very good psychological profile of Erdogan, they may be underestimating his response. The story goes, Turkey retaliated for the 33 dead by attacking Syria units around Idlib. Attacks that resulted in over 300 troops being, "Neutralized". Where there Russian " Little Green men embedded with those Syrian forces? Does Putin have what he wanted? A NATO partner getting kicked around, as it's new members watch it's NATO partners do nothing? This is a very complicated game being played, and the West seems to confused. Where is this all heading? Good question and the answer is up to a very...very unstable Sultan. In the meantime...............LOOK....Someone sneezed! run for the bunker! Oh ya. One last thing. with the whole world in a panic over the virus, who is going to let that next MILLION people in? 

                                       

                          CORONAVIRUS 

                                                    WHEN PANIC OVERRULES LOGIC. 

It's been a month since I've addressed the issue of this new paranoia in the world. Why a month? Well, two reasons. 1. I've been devoting my spare time to my next book, " The War of the Americas". 2. I've been watching to see just where this new viral event was taking a very connected world. So, today I take a little time off from the book and look at what we know so far about this potential global crisis.

The Panic:

A good friend of mine sent me two disturbing video clips yesterday. One was from Egypt, in a market place full of women. Suddenly there was screaming and most of the women began to walk away in a hurry. When I asked him what I was looking at, he stated, "virus". Well, that only made me ask, "what?" He said it was a video of a market place in Egypt where a dead child was seen, and somehow the people believed it was the "virus". Then, he sent me a clip of a long line of vehicles at night. Again I asked, "what is this?" His explanation; people were leaving Kuwait because it was rumored, keyword, sick Iranians were coming to Kuwait, most likely for medical help.  Now, is any of this factual? I have known this guy for a long time and he's a smart individual, but paranoia and rumors are powerful weapons in the Amry of fear. To tell you the truth, the very first thought that came to mind was, " how many other videos are starting to circulate around the globe? We have 3 billion phones out there and just about every one of them has a camera and video. What people see and what they state is the reason for what they see may not be accurate, but to a world that is growing more paranoid by the hour, that is of no consequence. We have the ability to scare ourselves on a massive scale and the fallout of that reality is an issue that has no parameters. Yes, the world is scaring itself, but it may be for good reason, and that reason may not be based on mortality rates, not yet at least. 

the Immediate Impact: 

Harbors full of freighters that will not dock, cannot dock. It's a mental image that most people don't realize, but when you slow or even stop a percentage of the juggernaut called China's economy, the end result is goods stack up somewhere, and then they simply don't get produced.https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1131071/From-the-News-Desk-How-is-the-coronavirus-affecting-shipping 

Yep, you have heard about a global, economic slowdown, and the US markets in the past two days have shown the concept of panic is not just limited to the uneducated. to me, the video clip from Egypt was a metaphor for Wallstreet. 

Here is another reality, one that has been talked about since the first discussions on this virus showed up. Governments, a growing number of them, are reluctant, to tell the truth. If you need the latest example, other than China, just take a look at Iran. Tehran knew the virus was inside Iran, but the Mullahs wanted to get their elections out of the way prior to telling their people. End result? Shia travels to holy sites led to people going home to other nations and thus bringing the infection with them. Remember the second video clip I just spoke about? Iran has the highest mortality rate of any other nation, outside of China. Is that bad news for the Iranian people? Just what level of healthcare do you think exist in Iran? Does the leadership in Tehran worry about staying in power, or do they worry about the welfare of the people, the same people the government gunned down just a few months ago? 

I bring up the example of Iran for another reason, and it's the one that in the end, may become the most important reason of all. Governments that mislead their people are governments that run the risk of destabilization. China's economic slow down could put millions of people out of work and those people can cause a great deal of trouble. Iran's nonexistent public healthcare network will not come close to controlling this highly contiguous virus. People in Iran already hate the leadership in Tehran and when the families of the military start to fall ill, with nothing be done other than oppressing the news and protest, then Tehran becomes more isolated than at any point in the recent past. Let me keep this simple, so I can drive on. Nations that are unstable, to begin with, are going to fall into a deeper crisis than just the virus. The virus is the tool, but the end result is social unrest. This brings me to the next real topic. Mass Migration!

People are like Cattle:

A crude statement right? " People are like Cattle." Have you ever been near a heard when something spooks them? They start to run and when the rest see them, they all start running. At the end of the day, people are no different. Hurricane Harvey. No gas along any of the major roadways in Texas. why? Rumors.....people got spooked. Cattle! 

Okay, if you didn't like my Cattle analogy, you will really be offended by my next topic. Nation's with poor leadership and even poorer health services are going to be prone to stampedes. Iran is prime for a stampede, and to be honest, it's most likely already underway. Just ask the Gulf Nations that have closed their borders to Iranians. Mass migration is a real threat from any pandemic event. The danger is, at the moment, it seems the topic is politically incorrect. Rightfully so, all eyes are on the economic impact as that is what governments worry about first. It's that fear of economic pressure that keeps governments reluctant, to tell the truth. Soon, that reluctance may be based on the fear of stampedes. Iran is the Canary in the cage, but let me address one that should catch the attention of the DC. Mexico!

What is the level of health care in Mexico? If you are asking Mexico City, it's great. If you are asking those who live in Mexico, the answer is a very mixed review. Here is the problem. Pandemics, if this becomes one, are not the atypical event. Distribution of preventive medicine is a very complex process. If you don't believe me, look up the Center for Disease Controls / CDC's Strategic National Stockpile program. I've talked about this before, but the issue of mass migration and infectious breaks outs go hand in hand. So, let me get back to the issue of Mexico. It's one thing to claim you have a great medical system, it's another to deal with a panicked public, a public that already doesn't trust the government at the federal, state or local level. No, I'm not talking about the US. Mexico has a constant flow of people entering the country. Most of these people are traveling to the US. We know the virus has the ability to keep people from showing they are infected for more than a week. We know people can be contagious before anyone knows they have become so. Are you getting the picture here? The US can close travel from nations that are a threat from the virus but don't think for a minute you have negated the threat. How many people entered the US last month, illegally? for the sake of argument, let's pick a number, a number that's really close to the truth. Let's say, 30,000 illegal entries into the US are caught each month. Note: I said, "caught". what is the percentage this is not caught? Where are they from? I've worked the issue of nations that sell, forge, travel documents. Let me give you a slice of reality. The number of nations that the US cannot trust for travel documents,  unofficially, is amazing. So, again, who is coming into this country? What are they running from? Let an actual pandemic outbreak start, or even the rumor of such, in Mexico or Central America and the numbers coming towards the border will be unbelievable. Like it or not, people are like cattle. 

Last month, I think I mentioned my involvement with the whole CDC/ SNS/process/planning. Let me tell you why this post is written the way it is. Back when the whole world was getting ready for the apocalypse called Y2K, I was on the planning team for the El Paso Texas region. Meeting after meeting, and as I military guy, I knew a thing or two about meetings. When it was nearly all said and done, and we believed we had a plan for that part of the nation, one topic derailed everything. Mexico. The power may stay on in the US, but what about Mexico? Yes, the US had been talking to Mexico City, and you can imagine Mexico's response. The good news was, the area of El Paso didn't care what DC heard or thought. El Paso and Ft. Bliss knew one thing, if the lights went out in Juarez, the cattle would come to El Paso, in a stampede! 

Planning for the worst: 

Is the world looking at a Pandemic event? Most likely. Will it result in a zombie apocalypse? Well, that depends on how many mutations it goes through. The second year of the Spanish Flu was the real killer. Will the virus crater the global economy? that's seems to be the real threat. Will the virus destabilize nations that are already unstable? That's another real possibility. So, what needs to happen? Last month, I wrote about how people should try to pay attention to the facts; stick with the facts. Here is the problem, and it's a huge one. The WHO and to some extent, the CDC had been taken over by the gravity of this event. Honestly, those of us who have worked the planning side of these events, well, we always anticipated that fact. So, if my advice from last month is now questionable, then what? Is it time to get ready to run with the cattle? Is it time to prepare for the stampede? For individuals, no. For the US government, yes! Just yesterday, I saw the " We hate Trump Team" in congress start a very predictable campaign. " It' Trump's fault". I even predicted this last week on Twitter. @Coldan11. It's absolutely pathetic the world could be facing a real crisis, and all the opposition in DC can do is worry about how to turn the event into poll points. Sickening. 

My advice from last month has timed out. Facts are going to get harder and harder to come by. So, instead of looking for verifiable information, do what you legally are allowed to do. Do what you are supposed to do; tell your leadership what you want to be done! 

A. Close the borders. I mean really close them. PS. It can be done, but you better find a way before the stampede gets there.

B.  Develope an economic model that doesn't depend on a single point of failure. Like what you may ask? Here is an example. just about 95 percent of a surgical mask, you know, the ones you can't find in the stores anymore/ N95s / are made in China. Stupid! "Make America Great Again. Suddenly, it makes a lot of sense right? 

C. Be prepared for illrational nations to act illrationaly. Tehran is really, I mean really in trouble. The odds of the Mullahs acting in an aggressive, dangerous manner is extremely high. Make sure your leadership knows this. Make sure they tell you they are ready for nations that might lash out as they lose control of a stampeding public. 

D. You may lose confidence in authorities, but that doesn't stop you from having a plan. A plan for you and your loved ones. If the illness spreads, find someone who recovers and that is the person or persons you can rely on to bring you what you might need. If you are isolating yourself and others than that person or persons are your lifeline. 

E. The heat of summer and the light of the sun is your friend. Nothing protects us more from germs than the Sun's UV. surfaces in the full sun are a million times safer than items left inside. Let the light set you free!  

F. F is for, finally. Read! Read about the Spanish Flu event of 1918. Find knowledge in history. This event may last longer than it's first burnout cycle because that what viruses do. 

This virus will cycle. It will burn out and then attempt to make some level of a comeback. It will live in warm, damp places. That's bad news for nations with that climate zone. China is in real trouble. This Virus will mutate. The more people infected, the more options it has to mutate, and the math is amazing. look it up. Virus' don't want to kill their host. It's not good for longterm residency. If it gets worse, it will burn itself up faster. You just have to avoid it while it's doing so. That's the bad news in the good news. But, remember, it can come back. Again, read about the Spanish Flu. 

Facts. They are getting harder and harder to come by, and they won't stop the stampedes when they come. 

US STATE OF THE UNION

WHAT THE WORLD WITNESSED.

President Trump gave the speech of his political career last night, and it was a speech with a much deeper message than most in the MSM realized. You see, the world watches speeches given by US Presidents. Why? Because their words impact the world, and that is just a reality the world must live in. In Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and just about every capital of every modern nation in the world, leaders listened to what President Trump had to say, and more importantly, they witnessed the reaction. 

To the loyal followers of the US Democratic Party, The Speaker's actions were most likely seen as a great act of defiance, maybe. Perception is a mask that changes shapes based upon who is looking. Was Nancy Pelosi's actions that of defiance, or was it the visible clue of a realization; a realization that President Trump cannot be beaten in 2020? How did her actions play out in other parts of the world? By the way, what you read from other parts of the world and what is said behind closed doors is almost always very different. How did the speaker's actions impact the rest of the world? How did it play out in the capitals of our peer competitors? What message did it send to our enemies? 

Five more years: 

In Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran, who looked defeated last night? What party refused to stand when the US's accomplishments were listed by the President, a President who is hated by the opposition?  Did Trump come off as someone desperate? Did the world see him as a leader who knows he is going to be beaten? What conversations took place after the US President was finished? Hint, the IC knows. President Trump played from the position of power and confidence. The party in opposition looked like little kids who were told there would be no recess. Defiant and childish, that is how the Democrats looked. Now, to be fair, that little game goes on every single State of the Union address. Can you imagine if a group acted that way after Xi or Putin gave a speech? Let Putin see a picture of one of his political opponents ripping up his speech. Democracy at work. 

Did the leaders  Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran walk away last night, turn to their staff and say, "plan on Trump being around for another term"?  No matter what the President's speech meant to others, what that mask looked like to the rest of the world, that's an issue the people in the US cannot underestimate. What level of planning kicked into gear this morning? What changes in global strategies are being developed? If President Trump made the rest of the world believe he is going to win, then what actions are not taking place? Yesterday, I saw a picture, and as usual, I interpreted that picture in a way much different than the media. 

The Race: 

What is this? Is it a hospital the Chinese built in ten days? Yes. As some of my friends commented yesterday, "does it really function as a hospital? Does it have water and sewer ect....ect....... does it have a real staff"? I politely, for me, that is, explained to them, this picture was not posted by Beijing for the sole purpose of showing the world they are responding to the virus. Yes, that is part of the information campaign, but in this picture provides a more important message, one that may not have been deliberately pushed by Xi. For the past twenty years or so, China has been focused on becoming the leader in modular and prefabricated structures. Entire cities have been built in a matter of a year or two as the world watched in wonder. Well, not all of us were excited. Is building a structure, like the one seen in this picture, a marvel of technology? Yes. Is it good news? Well, that depends on how you see the mask. 

In a devastating war, a war that allows nations to survive, but with tremendous asymmetric damage, one clear objective must be reached if the impacted countries are to survive. The ability to rebuild is key to remaining a nation. At the end of World War I and II, Europe, Russia, and Japan were in shambles. No place in Europe was there the ability to stabilize society, create industry, give people hope. The one nation that withstood the physical impacts of both those wars was the US. At the end of both wars, the US became the leader of providing the world with what it desperately needed. It was the US who won the Post War race! Beijing has taken this history lesson and designed the ability to win the Post War race. 

In my book, " The Second Dark Ages; An unofficial Review of the Third World War," this concept is the reason why I believe China has convinced themselves they can become the next post-war champion. In the book, I call this concept "Restart." It was the pictures of the hospital complex that convinced me Beijing's plan is nearly complete. From day one, everyone, including myself, has addressed the perception of how this new virus is impacting China's status in the world. Can they or can they not handle a real crisis? Showing the world these hospitals is Beijing's attempt to say they are up to the task, they can be the next world leader. What they most likely didn't mean to show those who watch China is just how close they are to being able to win the post-war title. 

The State of the US: 

The US is still the leader of the free world, even if the party in opposition to Trump doesn't think so. The next few years will hold new threats, new challenges. Can the 21st century have its problems solved while a few elitists hold a glass of wine at a Department of State function? China can build a city in a matter of days. That means China can rebuild factories as well as cities. Are they technologically equivalent? Perhaps not for the first few years, but then again, when you are the post-war champion, you have all the time you need. 

An in your face, call it like I see it leader is not what Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran wanted to see last night. Those that strive to replace the US's status, or even destroy that status, headed back to the planning room last night, and I bet the midnight oil will be burning. Trump may have worn a mask of achievements last night, but to some in the world, they say an advisory in his armor for several more years. 

THE DEATH OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

A CONTINUING CONVERSATION 

I really don't like heading down the road of US politics, but anything that threatens the stability of the US or other nations is what I track, and for that reason, I seem to keep coming back to the very topic I hate to cover. 

Do these two men have something in common? Do they both dream of the same future for their countries? Is social and economic redistribution the goal of both men? Yes, to all of the above. Would you like to see another example of why they are two peas in a pod? Both of them have the two major political parties of their nations hating them. In Mexico, AMLO is the destroyer of worlds in the eyes of the PAN and PRI. In the US, Bernie, the guy with worse hair than Trump, is despised by both the Republican, well, most of them, and the Democratic parties. Yes, I said the Democratic party, the one he is trying to win control of, hates, Bernie. But, it's worse than hate for the Democrats, at the few that are left, it's fear! 

The real Fear Factor: 

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/02/john-kerry-heard-weighing-joining-2020-race-establishment-panic-over-sanders-reaches

If you've not heard about the story above, let me give you the down and dirty. John Kerry voiced what most of the old Democratic party has been quietly saying for some time now. The old Democratic Party is in trouble................real trouble. It's no secret the left of left, movement in the party has been gaining ground, and the scary thing is, they keep trying to show their left of left competition they can be more left than any of them. You see, in the end, the old D's are starting to believe what the R's have been saying for the past ten years. The US Democratic Party is turning into the new US Socialist Party. 

Back when the Tea Party movement began to take hold inside the Republican Party, everywhere you turned, the Mainstream Media story was the same. " The radical Right is taking over the Republican Party." It was a  battle cry for the Democrats, and the image of the nation turning into a Neo-Nazi state was the mental picture they tried to paint. It didn't happen, and it didn't happen for logical reasons. Having said that, this time around, it seems it's the D's turn to have a radical movement attempt to take control, and that is why Kerry made the statement he can't walk back. The Mad Professor looking guy is scaring the establishment D's to death. Have you ever seen the movie, Gladiator? Remember the scene where they pull out their old Champion in an attempt to beat back the growing support for Maximus? Well, the D's better pray, if they do that anymore, their old Gladiator doesn't go the way of the one put in front of Maximus! 

The Perfect Storm: 

Close your eyes and picture this scene. You wake up. It's November 4th, and Bernie Sanders is the President of the United States. The Democratic Party has gone the way of the Whig Party. It's gone! It will take two more years before the R's can win back both chambers, and that's if that can even happen. The phone rings in Bernies Love Bug Van, and it's AMLO! " Congratulations, Comrade. Now, let's turn these two ships around and head into the Socialist Utopia we both dream of".  You have two choices here. 1. You can say, "It's never going to happen." You know, that same line used the night Trump won the election. 2. "Even if it did happen, the checks and balances from both houses will prevent him from doing anything really radical." Can someone remind me how Obama Care was voted into law? AMLO and Bernie would be like watching an episode of "Good Morning Comrade" as the new network daily talk show. By the way, AMLO already has one of these. 

Years ago, I heard someone say, " When it comes to running for office, you can't beat Santa Claus. " The foundation of the Socialist, Communist movements is the Santa Claus approach. "Vote for me and everything you need is going to be provided by the government, and by the way, you deserve everything all those rich people have..........besides............they took it form you". Yes, economic inequality is the cornerstone for developing social discontent. Here is the problem with the storyline Bernie and AMLO live by; they never tell the public the requirements for this utopia. 

AMLO's Mexico. A look into the future: 

'The establishment is corrupt, and we must round up the corrupt leaders.' Not the exact words of AMLO, but they are very close. Ask anyone in the international business world what they think of the direction of Mexico under AMLO, and you will not get a positive answer. 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-spiral-of-mexico.html

AMLO sees the wealthy as the problem in Mexico, not the terrorist cartels, you know, the ones that run a 100 BILLION dollar a year business. Perhaps he sees the terrorist cartels as employers of the poor, and as such, they contribute to Mexico's support for the poor? In the end, AMLO is driving an already destabilized nation to the edge of the abyss. Just imagine if the new US Socialist Party, headed by Bernie, joins AMLO's movement? Does the US Democratic Party have a reason to be scared? They can't run a viable Candidate, and so Bernie fills the void. Where does that fault originate from? Rumors of the dying Democratic Party breaking out a worn-out Warrior is a bad sign, and it's not just a bad sign for the D's. It's a dangerous sign of things to come for the US in general.