PATRIOT   SPRING 

A, "WHAT IF," STORY

The " What If" game. Over the past eight years, if you have followed my blog, then you know one of my favorite ways to analyze a topic is to play the, "what if" game. Now, in my background, this, "what if" game was formally referred to as, Second and Third Order Effects or, The Law of Unintended Consequences, two other of my favorite topics. I've typically used, the, "what if" game only because it just made writing fun. So, here we go. The following is my attempt at one of my favorite games; a game based on the attempted Coup in DC. I asked a simple question and add my opinion, and then I will give you a scenario on an event I am going to name if it happens, " The Patriot Spring".  

What If:

Will the Senate support impeaching President Trump? The standard answer is, " absolutely not". Those that support the President are more than confident. Even those who were part of the attempted Coup believe they have no chance of taking out Trump; or do they?  Do they know something the supporters of the President don't know? Do they have a much deeper plan? 

According to the Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/senate-impeachment-votes/ , 56 of the Senate members fall into the category of, " have not said." Let me ask anyone who follows US politics, does that answer worry you? Just how confident are the supporters of the US President the Coup plotters can't get to 2/3rds? Is it impossible? Let me frame this topic in a way many will understand. Just how morally bankrupt are most of these members? What's the Gold Rule of US politics? Yep, get in power and stay in control. Do the Coup plotters know how many votes they must get? You bet they do. Do they have a list of targeted members? Absolutely! Here is a reality. Anyone who truly believes a percentage of US Senators can't be "persuaded," that's a US political code word for, bought, is living in a different atmosphere than the rest of the US. As for me, well, I am from Missouri! For my non-US readers, you will have to look that statement up. 

It can't happen. The Senate will kill the coup attempt and then President Trump will win in 2020 with a landslide margin. Probably an accurate statement, but I'm a guy who cut his teeth on planing for potential, unintended events. Having said that, here comes the scenario I mentioned. 

Patriot Spring: 

On April 1st, :), A Super Majority was reached in the Senate. 

President Trump was found guilty on one count of " Abuse of Power."  

The news coverage was live from the steps outside the Senate and an undeniable sense of euphoria was given by CNN and MSNBC. 

Within four hours, large crowds of supporters of the Impeachment were shown live around the world. 

The numbers were estimated in the thousands, and most of the events took place in major cities and university campuses.

Global celebrations were covered by all major networks. 

 Apoxametly two hours after the Senate vote, President Trump Tweeted that a Coup had been carried out by the members of the Deep State and the American people had been stripped of their legally elected President. 

The next day, The US stock market dropped 1500 points and all breaking mechanisms were put into effect for the following day. 

By noon on April 2nd, Social media was reporting pro-Trump rallies were being coordinated across the US with the largest one set to take place on April 5th in Washington DC. 

By late that afternoon, several of the major media networks began to address what seemed to be a growing outcry by President Trump's supporters. 

Late on the day of April 2nd, many of the pro-impeachment celebrations were beginning to lose their numbers, and the media continued to address what seemed to be a growing outrage by pro-Trump supporters. Many of the pro-impeachment rallies had becomes mired in violent acts to include looting inside large US cities.  

By late in the evening on April 2nd, media coverage of the violence taking place in the larger cities of the US could not avoid the appearance of concern. Several west coast cities were under assault by growing, ANTIFA supported riots. 

On the morning of April 3rd, media coverage of the riots taking place in several US cities was world news. The violence had led to vast scale destruction in major business districts of the impacted cities, and Law Enforcement was responding with harsher than expected tactics. 

As these violent events were taking place, President Trump had continued his consistent contact through social media.

On the morning of April 3rd, the President sent out a Twitter message that stated he fully supported the pending rallies that were scheduled to begin on April 5th. It was then, the President said it was time for a US version of The Arab Spring. That particular Tweet referred to what would become, 

" The Patriot Spring." 

On the evening of April 3rd, US media networks, CNN and MSNBC, limited live coverage of the riots still taking place in several US cities as well as multiple Universities. Both networks began to form a storyline the violence might actually be coordinated by pro-Trump supporters. 

On April 4th, the US stock market closed at 1000am EST after dropping another 2300 points. Markets in Europe and Asia lost an additional 18 percent and closed after three hours of trading. 

Late on the afternoon of the 4th, CNN interviewed several people from the riots in Portland who claimed to be members of ANTIFA. They informed the CNN reporter ANTIFA's goal was the resignation of all political leaders in DC. CNN cut the interview short when two of the members being interviewed began to threaten the reporter and her crew. 

By nightfall on the 4th, FOX and BBC were leading the evening news with scenes of people gathering for the " Patriot Spring" rallies. The media identified over a dozen major cities where the Patriot Spring supporters were arriving in what was described as "huge numbers." Washington, DC, was the site of the largest gathering, and it was estimated that over 500k people were staging near the Lincoln Memorial. Social media indicated the Patriot Spring March on Congress would start at 8EST on the 5th of April. 

10:30pm EST 4 April:

Twitter reports began to circulate news of massive demonstrations inside the Gaza Strip, and multiple rockets had landed inside of Israel. At 1045pm EST, The Israeli Defense Force Tweeted Israel was going to launch a large scale operation into Gaza. Major news networks did not address this event, given the instability inside the US. 

At 1am EST, Tweeter reports, along with video shot from cell phones, reported the movement of large IDF units moving into position along the border to several key areas in Gaza. Major networks in the US mentioned the events in Gaza and Israel, but the coverage was minor and with little detail. 

April 5th: 

At 6am EST, the city of New York announced that no rallies would be allowed in the city for the next four days. New York's Mayor stated the past two days of gatherings had led to an unacceptable level of damage and destruction and as such, no further gatherings would be authorized. During their morning show, Fox News covered this announcement by the city of New York , and the statement was made that perhaps the Mayor of New York had canceled all gatherings to keep the Patriot Spring march from taking place in the city. Within the hour, social media had spread the statement as a fact, and by 7am EST, a large percentage of the nation believed New York had prevented the Patriot Spring rally. 

9am EST. 

Social media and the news networks reported the DC march would start around 9am EST and would move along Pennsylvania Avenue towards Congress Avenue. DC capital police had addressed through both social media and the major networks their concerns over additional gatherings outside the White House. Since the vote in the US Senate, a large crowd had formed demanding the President step down immediately. The celebratory nature of this gathering had become nearly uncontrollable at times, but law enforcement had been reluctant to disperse the crowd. 

Media outlets from around the world covered the event in DC. Over 100 networks broadcast the event live. Several members of the march were interviewed upon their arrival. On the evening of the 4th of April, one man stated the march was to surround Congress and demand their resignations as well as to "protect" the President and the White House from "those who want to destroy our country."  Several interviews with similar messages had been published since the 3rd of April, and many foreign networks had been covering the violence taking place in major US cities. It became clear, the world was watching to see what would take place on the 5th. 

9:30am EST. 

It was estimated the Patriot Spring march in DC had over 300K members moving towards the US Congress building complex. The movement had been underway for roughly 30 minutes when networks and social media began to show clashes between those who were protesting for the US President's immediate removal from the White House and the Patriot Spring supporters. Law enforcement attempted to form a physical barrier between the two groups. Still, the Patriot Spring numbers were so large, the process of keeping the two groups separated collapsed within a few minutes. As a result, members of the group protesting against the US President began to throw objects into the much larger crowd that was moving towards them. Video clips from cell phones were rebroadcasted by dozens of global media networks within five minutes of the first event. 

The violent clashes between the two groups grew dramatically in a short period. As the two groups merged into one large confrontation, law enforcement lost control of the contact point. Global media coverage reported the growing violence with the White House seen in the background. Major US networks were broadcasting the event as similar stories began to be reported in other cities that had been identified as Patriot Spring rally sites. BBC reported that "counter rallies" had been identified through social media, and these rallies had been organizing since President Trump's Tweet about the Patriot Spring concept. It was clear, those who supported the US President and those who opposed him were in direct conflict, and the world was observing these events. 

1200pm EST: 

Law enforcement in the DC area requested assistance with violent clashes. The option of dispursing the event with riot control tactics such as gas and water was not approved. The Patriot Spring numbers were so large, it was feared these tactics would lead to an even great crisis if people attempted to leave in a panic. The safety of those in the contact point was not controllable as law enforcement attempted to regroup around the designated arrival point of the Patriot Spring march.

 By 1200pm EST, media coverage had moved away from the events in DC. Violent clashes were now broadcast live from several US cities.  Atlanta, St. Louis, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, San Diago, and Chicago were the cities receiving the majority of media coverage. Patriot Spring rallies in these cities had supporters numbering over 100k each. Counter rallies estimated numbers were approximately 10 to 20k in each of these cities. Media coverage showed the same scene the world had been witnessing in DC. Law enforcement had been unable to keep the two groups from making contact, even when the cities of Dallas and Chicago had utilized the riot agents DC had opted not to implement.  By the time the violence in other major US cities was being shown worldwide, China's major news networks began to cover the events live as well. To the rest of the world, the US was in a crisis that exceeded the events of the 1960s, a time most of the population of the world did not remember. 

1pm EST: 

At 1235am EST, many social media platforms, as well as several US media networks, began to report gunshots being heard in DC and Dallas. Contact with law enforcement from both of these locations provided no information, and the major US news networks began to shape the perception order was being lost. By 1am EST, FOX, CNN and MSNBC were all confirming the sound of gunfire. Several video clips began to appear on social media that seemed to show subjects dressed in all black firing handguns into a crowd of people in front of them. As the media networks continued to contact law enforcement, stories of wounded and motionless people lying in the streets erupted on Tweeter and other networks. A local news crew in Dallas went live from an Emergency Room at a Dallas Hospital, reporting multiple gunshot victims. Video clips of three gunmen dressed in black with black backpacks firing into a crowd in Dallas were shown on all global networks. Within thirty minutes of the live broadcast from the Dallas ER, rumors of shots being fired began to come in from other cities around the US. It was estimated, nearly thirty cities in the US had significant confrontations taking place, and the ability to control rumors was lost. 

2pm EST: 

Major US media networks were overwhelmed by the increasing stories and reports of violence inside the US. Emotional lead reporters were visibly shaken by the events in the US. By 2:30pm EST, CNN and FOX news were addressing statements by the governors of Texas and Georgia. Both Governor's had released statements the violence taking place in their states would not be tolerated. Within minutes of the Texas Governor putting out his statement, the Mayor of Dallas called a local news network and stated the Governor needed to understand, Dallas could keep its people safe. In Portland, the Mayor declared it was the supporters of the Governor who were responsible for the violence, and the Patriot Spring rally in Portland would be disbanded by all means necessary. As the local news network was attempting to ask the Mayor what actions might be taken, the  Mayor abruptly ended the conversation. Within the hour, word of the confrontation between the Governor of Texas and the Mayor of Dallas had spread globally. Social media depictions of this event distorted the issue, and rumors of the Dallas Police firing on the Patriot Spring members began to spread. 

5pm EST: 

At 5pm, President Trump made a statement from the White House. He called for calm and asked all parties involved to stop the violence and allow local and state authorities to ensure an orderly protest process. It was his comment about, "orderly protest", CNN and MSNBC reacted to. Within minutes of the US President's statement, both networks accused him of inflaming the violence by supporting additional protest. Again, the influence of rumors on social media turned this issue into even more fuel for the violence. Those that were demanding the US President's immediate removal were calling for more of their supporters to "come out into the streets and stand up to the Fascist leader." Media bias had now made a bad situation much....much worse. 

10:00pm EST:

By 10:00pm on the 5th of April, over twenty-five, major cities in the US had become the scene of violent protests. In the Cities of Portland and San Francisco, confirmed reports of protestors firing on law enforcement had been reported. Although major US networks continued to state the identity of those firing on law enforcement could not be confirmed, social media photos and video clips had convinced most of the US and the world, the gunmen were very similar to ANTIFA in appearance. FOX News interviewed two retired FBI agents on the topic of who was most likely firing on the police. Both retired agents stated they believed these acts were being conducted by groups who had long called for the destruction of the US government. After these interviews, people began to flood social media with comments over who was responsible for not only firing on law enforcement but the crisis itself. The overwhelming perception placed the blame on the Democratic leadership of the US Congress. The opinion of a" Witch Hunt" being responsible that led to the violence gripping the US became a reality. 

1130pm EST:

Tweeter postings began to state that large scale military operations seemed to be underway not only in the Gaza Strip but in Syria and Lebanon as well. By 11:35am, Israeli Defense Force's Tweeter page stated Israel had launched a massive military operation to eliminate an immediate threat to Israel from Iranian supported groups in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. By 1145pm, BBC reports from Beirut Lebanon showed massive impacts taking place along the Lebanese, Israeli border, as well as the Beirut international airport. By midnight on the 5th of April, it was clear Israel had launched a major military operation, and Iranian targets were being struck across the region. 

April 6th : 

7am EST: 

Morning news networks in the US had not stopped their live broadcast for over 24 hours. The news of a major conflict in the Middle East had been briefly discussed, but even that issue had become a point of contention. FOX interviewed individuals whose perception was, the growing conflict in the Middle East was a direct result of the Democratic Congress deliberately destabilizing the US President's standing in the world and that this action was now leading to the possibility of a global war. At the same time, CNN, MSMBC interviewed individuals who believed the actions of Israel were a result of a" disconnected, global community", brought on by the Trump Administration. 

The discussion over the events in the Middle East had no value to the people of the US. By the morning of the 6th of April, over thirty cities in the US were dealing with the repercussions of the two opposing group's violent clashes. 

In the cities of Dallas, Atlanta, and Portland, the violence had continued throughout the night. In addition, large scale celebratory rallies, that had been taking place in Los Angles since the Senate vote, became increasingly violent. 

US stock market trading remained closed, and rumors of runs on hard currency throughout the nation grew by the hour. Local news stations showed long lines at ATMs and even longer lines at gas stations. Networks in Dallas and Houston showed what they claimed were miles of vehicles leaving both cities. Reporters interviewed multiple individuals as they were filling up their vehicles. All of them stated they were leaving the city, given the fear of the growing violence. Reports also began to paint a perception local grocery stores had limited food items left as people stocked up in order to stay home.  The events in the US were unlike anything anyone had witnessed in decades, and this time around, social media drove perceptions, and those perceptions became a reality. 

9am EST:

When the Mayor of Portland was interviewed on CNN news, it was clear to the world, Portland was going to take action to remove the Patriot Spring protestors from the city. The argument was made, this group represented a violent viewpoint, and as such, it would not be allowed to hold any level organized activity inside the city. CNN asked the Mayor if it could be proven Patriot Spring members were responsible for the violence. The response was one that was heard around the nation, 

" These people are the ones that gave us this madman in the White House."  As the threats coming from Portland became a topic that showed the divide facing the US, FOX News reported that many people in the US saw Portland as a strong base for the ANTIFA movement. To many, the perception was, many of the US cities were leaning towards blaming the Patriot Spring movement for the violence in the US. By noon on the 6th, it was clear CNN and MSNBC, as well as several other world networks, had taken the same stance. 

4pm EST: 

At 4pm, BBC news and a Twitter account held by the government of Iran announced Iran was launching a counter-attack in order to defend the people of Lebanon and Gaza. The statement was shot and gave no details, but the message was clear. Iran was going to war with Israel and perhaps others in the region. The news networks in the US interrupted their coverage of the crisis in the US, but the amount of viable information on what was said and what it meant only made the situation worse. Again, the accusations came from both sides of the US conflict over who was responsible for this crisis in the Middle East. No definitive information was provided, but social media from the region made it obvious the war was growing at an alarming rate. People were posting how they were leaving Israel, and the major airports in Israel were closed within two hours of the Iranian statement. Israel and Iran were in a technical state of war, and the US was powerless to control the event. When the reports began to come in of Portland Police Officers refusing to show up to work, the issue of Isreal and Iran disappeared from US news outlets. 

6pm EST: 

By 6pm, it was confirmed by several local news networks that over half of the Portland Police Department had not shown up for work or was calling in sick for the evening shift. The Mayor put out a public statement about the issue but gave no media interview.  Portland leadership shaped the event as a contractual issue, but virtually no one in the US believed the statement. Within an hour of the Portland story, a social media trend began to appear. " The Blue Line Walks" was the name of a hashtag that had over 5 million followers in the first hour of its arrival on major platforms. By the time the news networks were mentioning the phenomenon, the movement had over 10 million followers. FOX News was the first to ask the question if other cities were witnessing what had taken place in Portland? The answer stunned everyone who was listening. FOX received text message from Police Officers in twelve major cities, all of them stating that if they were asked to move on the Patriot Spring groups, they would refuse to do so. 

8pm EST:

At 8pm, the headlines on CNN web-based news site read, " Police Officers refusing to follow orders across the nation."  Within fifteen minutes, CNN removed the lead caption, but the damage was done. The world had seen social media reports. They had seen the headline on CNN. Other major networks had carried the caption from the website. Law enforcement in the US was breaking down. Reality no longer drove the actions of the US or the world; perception was reality, and the world sensed a growing crisis. 

9pm EST:

Up until this point, the response to the crisis in the US by the government had been vague and uncoordinated. The Director of Homeland Security had been questioned by MSNBC on the options the federal government had given the growing violence in the major cities. The answer that was given only made matters worse. " These events are issues for the cities to deal with, and federal support is not necessary at this time." Soon after that statement was made, the White House put out a statement the administration understood the frustration of those who believed the will of the American people had been subverted, but violence was not the answer. Again, the major news networks in the US turned that statement into the President openly supporting the crisis. By the end of the day, it was clear the major news networks in the US were overwhelmed with nonstop reporting, and almost every statement was based on pure emotion. 

APRIL 7TH:

The morning White House Intelligence Briefing took place as scheduled. The Tension in the room was undeniable. Agency heads had mixed understandings of what was taking place in the US, and the events in the Middle East appeared to about to turn into a regional war the US would be part of. 

The Director of Homeland Security and the Head of the Department of Commerce gave a quick analysis focused on the status of food item distribution in the US. The media had not yet picked up on the reality a large percentage of the over the road truck drivers were not at work. It seemed many of them were attending the Patriot Spring rallies across the nation, and as such, goods, especially food items, had limited delivery services. The issue of truck drivers led to the topic of gasoline delivery operations. It was clear those operations had been severely impacted by the same point of drivers. By the time the subject of people reportedly leaving major cities for lack of food and fuel, the environment in the room deteriorated dramatically. The US government was not only unaware of the status of the nation, but it was growing powerless to do anything about it. The issue of law enforcement walking away from their jobs deteriorated into a verbal argument that led to the Vice President screaming at everyone in the room. Of all the issues in the room, it was the statement by the President that shook everyone's confidence the most. When someone told the President he must address the nation as soon as possible, his reply was met dead silence. " What good would that do? The media will only blame me for the crisis, and besides, I've been Impeached"! For over three years, the opposition to the President had been in a full-court press to destroy his ability to lead the nation. What had now taken place was the classic example of, " The law of Unintended Consequences."  Those that hated the President had what they longed for. The Trump administration was in ruins. It had been voted out of the White House, not by the will of the people, but by those who valued their own power more than the future of the nation. In less than one week, the US was near collapse. Its economy was near ruins along with the rest of the world. A regional war that could quickly turn into a global conflict was about to take place all because the Israeli government saw the removal of Trump as a beginning of a new approach towards an enemy that was close to having a nuclear capability. Israel had chosen, "go now before it's too late." People were leaving the US major cities. Law enforcement was breaking down in many of those same cities. US citizens were killing each other in open conflicts, and at the end of that week, the true enemies of the United States understood one thing. Their time had come. The world would turn to the Dragon for stability. 

At her million-dollar Vinyard in California, Nancy Pelosi's husband walks into the room, looks at her sitting in her favorite chair, and says, "what have you done"? 

Does this story sound outrageous? Yes, I know, there is NO chance of the Senate voting against Trump. But................but........................ even if this event slides away, what of the future? Just how divided can this nation continue to be without falling into the type of crisis I've described above? DC is out of touch and out of control. It is time to limit the powers of the corrupt Deep State!  

FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION DESIGNATION FOR THE CARTELS

CLOSE, BUT NO CIGAR 

What happened? Why did President Trump pull back on the FTO designation for the terrorist cartels? His statement, Tweeter, indicated he was suspending the FTO designation at the "request" of the Mexican President. It seems the FTO process is complete, and the US President can pull the trigger whenever he wants, but for now, it's not going to happen. Does this seem strange? Does it seem like President Trump has flip-flopped again? What happened? What did the Mexican President, AMLO, say to convince the US President to turn off the event? Let me give you several options, with one or two scenarios being ones I support the most, and perhaps you will come to your own conclusion. That's what I enjoy the most. Giving people information and analysis, and then letting them come to their own conclusions. 

Scenario 1:

The Threat: 

Did AMLO receive the infamous Horsehead in his bed, figuratively speaking? Did the cartels and their supporter, a reality that has global reach, pressure AMLO into asking President Trump to at least postpone the FTO designation? Did those who work on the money side of the cartel business realize what the FTO status would do to their operations? The reality is, FTO status will have a devastating impact on the financial side of the terrorist cartels, and let there be no doubt, it's always about the money. If this cartel approach was the reason for the agreement between the two Presidents, then what pressure was placed on AMLO? 

The cartels represent a business that is estimated to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars on an annual base. Just how deep does that money penetrate? Let me give you an example. The former Mexican Security Minister, Mr. Garcia Luna, a person I know about more than you can imagine, was arrested in the US. He had access to information at the highest levels and was one of Mexico's ex-president Calderon's closest confidants. If you need an example of just how deep the power of the cartel money penetrates government agencies, sadly, Mr. Luna is only one example. 

Did the cartels tell AMLO, "if we are going down, you wait to you see who goes down with us"? Did AMLO call President Trump and tell him what the terrorist cartels told him? Did "others" in the cartel money business inform both of them what the price might be? Short version. Did AMLO and perhaps President Trump get threatened with what would undoubtedly be an unbelievable level of corruption? Was the FTO designation worth the damage that would be done? 

Scenario 2.

Evo: 

Why did Evo Morales leave Mexico for Cuba? One rumor revolves around him needing "medical treatment." The most persistent rumor, one President Trump most likely would support, is based upon President Trump asking AMLO to kick Evo out of Mexico. Think about it. How would it look for one of the most prominent, anti-US leaders in Central and South America to take up residence in the country that's the US's number one trading partner?  If you need a reminder on who Evo is, read my post from November.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2019/11/evo-morales-saved-by-amlo.html?m=1

Are AMLO and Evo like-minded individuals? Yes. Do they both have a vision for the region, Central and South America, that is far different than the US? Absolutely. Is there bad blood in the US for Evo? Yes. How upset was DC when the word got out that Evo was greeted in Mexico as a comrade? Evo Morales is an enemy of the US, and for that enemy to be given a safe haven in its number one trade partner, well, that was most likely a hot topic in the White House. 

Did President Trump call AMLO and demand Evo be removed ASAP? I would bet that the conversation took place. Did AMLO bargain with President Trump, because, that's how things work in this world?  " Mr. President, the FTO designation is going to have a dramatic impact on my country. Is there anything that I can do that may change your mind"? If the conversation between President Trump and AMLO centered around anything, it was the impact on Mexico. So, did Evo Morales become a bargaining chip? Did his removal from Mexico at least buy AMLO some time? You need to remember, the vision of AMLO and Evo are very, very close. When we look at the overall status of several nations in Central and South America, keeping Evo marginalized is a massive issue in DC. 

Scenario 3. 

The Breaking Point: 

If the FTO designation goes into effect, what impact will it have on the day to day lives of the good people in Mexico? At the end of the day, the people of Mexico will have two choices. They can support the designation, or they can oppose it. Paranoia of US operations and or intentions runs deep in Mexico's society. That fact holds especially true in Mexico's military. There may be a soft relationship between the two nation's militaries. Still, history is a hard lesson learned in Mexico, and you can rest assured when President Trump's tweet went out on FTO designation, the Mexican Military was one of the first groups to state their concerns to AMLO. The reality is, Mexico's population was and would be impacted by the FTO issue. The real question becomes, just how much of an impact would it have? How much would this reality have affected AMLO's discussion with President Trump?

Would the terrorist cartels take the FTO status without responding in any way? Would the Mexican government, a government that is deeply influenced by the money of the terrorist cartels, be aware of the possible reactions of the violent groups? Could AMLO have informed President Trump of the dangers he and President Trump might face, not just the financial exposure of those who support the flow of drug money, but the physical dangers? What if the terrorist cartels openly informed AMLO's administration they would increase the violence tenfold, and not just in Mexico? Most of what the terrorist cartels talk about is observed. The US's Intelligence Community, IC, is the best in the world when it comes to Signals intelligence. Would the US have been aware of a continuing threat of increased violence? Would this intelligence have been confirmed by AMLO? Just how much more social pressure can the Mexican society take? Would the FTO event have significant, unintended consequences, consequences not anticipated in DC?  Did AMLO help drive home this potential reality? What if AMLO has made a comment to President Trump, " Mr. President. If the FTO designation takes place, the social structure of Mexico may collapse! You might be looking at tens of millions of Mexican citizens pushing on your Southern border"! If that statement sounds outrageous, I would recommend you read the conversations that took place back in 2011 on the topic of a potential Civil War in Syria. Would the FTO status push Mexico into a Syria Event? AMLO's passive policy will not be tolerated by his own military if the nation reaches the point of drastically increased violence. His Generals are already uneasy over his path to Mexico's future. 

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2019/11/amlos-rumor-of-coups-and-murders-is-it.html?m=1

Scenario 4. 

The Economic Impact: 

What would the FTO designation mean to Mexico's economy, an economy that is already in real trouble? Mexico's oil industry is one of the most poorly managed in the world, and the profits from this ineffective agency are shrinking by the day. Mexico's oil and gas industry is the backbone of AMLO's social giveaway programs, and to make things worse, the terrorist cartels are bleeding off the oil and gas at an alarming rate. Short answer, the economic future of Mexico is not a bright picture. 

What would be the impact on another large section of Mexico's economy, tourism? When the cartel wars really started to heat up, nearly twenty years ago, Mexico's tourism industry took a direct hit. Destinations that were once considered garden spots for tourists suddenly became war zones. Prices were dramatically reduced in an attempt to keep the flow of tourists, and those lowered prices impacted Mexico's economy. Let Mexico be recognized by the US as a nation where identified terrorist groups seemingly control everything around them, and where does the tourist industry go? 

FTO status has a powerful tool, the tool of financial actions. For years, the true intent of the US to go after the flow of money has been based upon small seizures. Imagine if entire banking networks were targeted by the US Department of Treasury? What would be the true economic impact on Mexico if the drug business finances were actually seized and destroyed? What amount of slack is left in Mexico's economic belt? At what point do the people of Mexico say, "enough is enough" and march on Mexico City? Can Mexico have its own version of the Arab Spring? 

Did AMLO call President Trump and make his case for not pushing Mexico's economy over the edge? By the way, does anyone think the terrorist cartels would not compensate for lost revenue by taking from another segment of Mexico's society? Read about the kidnapping industry in Mexico. In the end, did AMLO plead with President Trump over the economic damage the designation would create? 

Scenario 5. 

Called his Bluff: 

Andres Manuel Lopez, AMLO doesn't like the current government of the US. He is cheering for any of the left of center Democratic candidates to win in 2020. President Trump calls AMLO a friend. Well, if that's accurate, I would bet it's a one-sided friendship. AMLO's vision for not only Mexico but for governance, in general, is about as distant from President Trump's vision as you can get. When he heard of the FTO designation statement, his reaction was the real gateway into his intentions. The US would not be allowed to interfere with the internal issues of Mexico. That's not an uncommon stance for any nation to take, but in the case of Mexico, history adds emotion. Even the middle class of Mexico seemed troubled by the verbiage of the US President. Pride is a powerful tool in Mexico, and AMLO played to that point when he responded to President Trump's Tweet. 

Did AMLO call President Trump and paint a picture the US President had not anticipated? Did AMLO stand up to the US? Did he take a few weeks to figure out what he would say and how he would say it? What could he have said that may have made the US President look for an offramp? AMLO had time to draft a second response to the FTO issue. He had time to talk to others about the subject. Just imagine if the US IC reported AMLO had been talking to China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Turkey, just to name a few. Did the US listen to the Mexican government's conversations with other nations after the announcement? There is never a time the US IC is not listening to anyone it desires. Imagine a conversation along these lines. " Mr. President. I will not stand for this intrusion into Mexico's affairs. IF the day has come where Mexico must turn to a new partnership, then I am willing to do so". Again, if you don't believe conversations like that take place, then you don't understand how the world works. Bottomline; did AMLO call the US President's bluff? Did President Trump find a political offramp in an election year by stating he had come to an agreement with his friend in Mexico? 

What Scenarios do I support? Truthfully, I addressed all five of these potentials because  I think it's a combination of all of them. Am I completely off base, nor have I come close to the real event that led to the postponed FTO designation? In the end, it doesn't matter. What matters is the reality that Mexico and it's overall stability must be a priority for the US. As the US starts year nineteen in Afganistan, someone better start to realize where the real threat is coming from. Let Mexico slide into a historic crisis, and the topic of Mass Migration will consume the day to day lives of the US population. 

WHAT IS A "DEEP STATE"?

WHO MAKES UP THE "SWAMP"?

I think I've talked about these two topics before, but that's the great thing about blogging; You decide what to post, not someone else! I fully realize just about everyone has heard or read dozens of definitions in regards to "The Swamp....... The Deep State"! Today, I'm not going to travel down that road. Today, I'm going to ask a simple question. Why would such organizations exist? If you have heard that approach before, feel free to go do something else. This post will not be a long, drawn-out dissertation. Short and to the point. Today that is my intent.  

Birds of a feather: 

Is there a real difference between the terms "Swamp" and " Deep State"? To Professor Nerdly, absolutely and as a matter of fact, he and others like him will attempt to make their fame and fortune addressing the topics. What about Joe? Josie Sixpack? Does Swamp and Deep State have separate meanings? Do they even care? If you ran a 30 min special on the topic, narrated by Professor Nerdly, during the College Football playoffs, I think you would have your answer. At the end of the day, to most of the US population, Deep State and Swamp are birds of the same feather. For the sake of this post, let's assume the two are the same feathers and move on to the critical question, my question.

Reality Background:

Where are international agreements discussed and worked out, the ones that are nation-state to nation-state? Obvious answer, DC. Knowing this, where do the majority of large corporations place their priority of effort; you know.................Lobbyist. Yep, DC. "Deals," the massive ones are hatched after they are incubated and manipulated in DC. If some of these "deals" are really big, then actual federal agencies kick in, and we all know what that means. The political, "What's in it for me" process swings into high gear. Try taking this "deal" process outside of DC, and you will end up in a courtroom. Trade laws, interesting who they really benefit. The world revolves around commerce, and in the US, commerce is controlled in DC. Heck, the federal government even has a department called Commerce. 

Okay, so the Center of Gravity, I love that term, is based on economics, and the Center of Gravity for Center of Gravity resides, almost exclusively, in DC.  Getting the picture yet? Let me add the next clue. The clue resides in a word I used in the above paragraph. Corporations / Industry. Let me ask you something. Who reports to whom? Politicians, almost all of them, require huge sums of money to run for office. Industry, well, they need the government in power's support for striking deals. To the two of them, it's a match made in Heaven. " I give you money, you give me permissions and contracts. Again,  let me toss a word in here; Lobbyist! In reality, a fourth branch of the US's government. Don't buy it? Let me give you an example, and it's a huge one at that. The Military-Industrial Complex. September 11th takes place, and the US initiates the " Global War on Terrorism." Was it the right thing to do? You bet it was. Did the US conduct the operation most efficiently? Not even close. Why? What happened about two years after 9-11? My opinion, and it's an ugly statement, Industry realized the amount of money that could be made off of the GWOT! Nearly 19 years later and industry is still churning out the latest, greatest gadgets for DoD, DHS, and just about every company that is told they could be a target. " You need this, or you will not be in compliance with DHS standards"! I use to have teams of people who's job was to asses if state, federal, and private institutions were in compliance. A HUGE self-licking ice cream cone? You bet it is. Where does all of this coordination take place? DC? Yep. Did we attack our enemies with the intent to neutralize their ability to do us harm anytime soon? Did we destroy the nations that supported them to send the world a message, " don't F..K with us"? At first, the first three years or so, we tried. But, even then, the gravity of those who saw longterm contracts became too powerfull to pull away from. Nation-State building, spreading Democracy, these became the drumbeats of DC, both parties. Feathers..remember.........feathers! "This will take a long time." Remember that line? The man who made that statement did so based on validated intelligence. The problem became, those words became music to the ears of those who were making money, huge money, from this new honey hole.........GWAT. 

Swamp Mentality: 

By design,  DC is the seat of the US government. By desire, DC has become the center of economic and fiscal events. As time has marched on, reality has become very apparent. Those who get inside the DC Center of Gravity have no intention of leaving. Industry has shaped its own environment. If DC is where the decisions are made, and industry needs decessions to go their way, then membership in the DC club must be controlled. Those that approve "deals" intend on keeping that approval process. The "Swamp and the tools of the Swamp, the Deep State, have closed the doors to reality. The Beltway Bandits, a nickname I've used for years, have created their own nation-state. The Nation of DC. The very land they work from and live on is controlled by the federal government. Sealed off and supported by those that require federal spending, the Swamp has become a distant land to those who have been cast as members of "flyover country." 

The Attack:

Is President Trump sometimes Irrational, hotheaded, attention-deficit disordered, vindictive, and even unpolished?  Yep. Are these new traits of US Presidents? Do you know US history? Of all the caveats the Left and the Swamp can place on Trump, there has been one they hate the most. Flyover country put him in the White House, legally! Was Trump and "outsider"? Yes, that's why flyover America voted for him? Ask yourself, "why did flyover country vote for an outsider"? Answer, because they were sick of the nation-state of DC. A Nation-state where all sides have the same feathers. To the Nation-State of DC, Trump was an attack. He was the enemy force leader sent to dismantle the gates of the Nation-State of DC. Not only was he a threat to the political, "forever" party......you know.......................the ones that get there and stay there, he was even questioning the industrial legacy of DC. " Show me you are competitive or you are gone." That's how the GWOT industry must have interpreted Trump's arrival. 

Preemptive Attack:  

What do you do when you believe you are about to be attacked? Well, if you know what you are doing, and the Swamp does, you don't wait for the attack. You attack first. Russia Gate, mental health, sexual harassment,  Ukraine. Who came up with these issues? Where did these stories initiate? Inside the Nation-State of DC, that's where. Did the Swamp fear Trump's changes to the game? You bet, or did they genuinely believe he was the original President to speak to other nations about what he needed? Hint...think.........JFK, Nixon, Regan, Clinton, and so on and so on. Who would have known the dark side of White House actions? Who would have known such events were off the radar of the American people, but necessary to keep keep the beer and chips flowing in the US? You bet, the Swamp did. But, if you need tools to preempt the pending attack of your enemy, then you expose issues that have been taking place since the time of the Pharaohs. 

Look, folks; a vast, centrally controlled, federal government, a government that dictates the day to day lives of those who serve under it, not the other way around, is the concept of what political philosophy? Yep, the progressive left, socialist. You work, you send your money to that government in the form of taxes, and that government will provide for you, but at a level, the collective decides is required. What type of government did the founders of this US fear? The nation-state of DC, the Swamp's, goal is to control any and all events that impact the lives of those who live in the nation. If Trump was seen as the "outsider" who was going to change that course, to what lengths do you think DC would go to in order to prevent his actions? Not groomed in the camp of two feathers. Not part of the DC "Team." Even worse, one of those who spent money shaping DC. One who knows where the skeletons are buried. Just how dangerous is Trump to the Swamp? Dangerous enough to bend the articles of Impeachment, that's how dangerous.

Critical Error:

The nation-state of DC truly believes with the help of the left-leaning MSM, the representative of flyover country will be tossed out of the club. Worse, the Swamp believes they will send a message to the supporters of their enemy, " Don't try this again." Let me see if I have my US history correct. The US is a Republic, right? I wonder if anyone in the Swamp truly understands what that means? 

HOW TO TAKE DOWN THE TERRORIST CARTELS 

A NEW LOOK TO AN OLD IDEA

In my last post, I addressed the issue of " 2nd and 3rd Oder Effects" of the President's designation commitment on the terrorist cartels. I also touched on " The Law of Unintended Consequences." Now, it's time to move past the "what if" and, " It's not the right thing to do" counter-arguments, and get into the nuts and bolts of how to make this designation actually work. It's time for action!

Step One:

This is the short and sweet part of this discussion. Identify the terrorist cartels for what they are. These groups, all of them, are Enemy Combatants! Yep, part of the terrorist designation process, but the word "enemy" has still not been used. Forget the Georgetown University or thinktank opinions for hire. The cartels and ALL of their members are Enemy Combatants of the United States; period. Put that word out there. Let everyone single one of them hear those words spoken by the President and every other federal agency that bothers to address the crisis. Let AMLO, a person who is a growing concern if anyone in DC is paying. attention, hear that definition. Let him respond. Let him disagree. Force him to choose sides. Step one; identify your enemy! 

Step Two: 

Okay. I fully realize I'm about to run smack dab into two basic reactions to what I am going to say. 

1. " OH...here goes Col Dan........... the military is the answer"! 2. " Nothing new here. We've tried that 'theory' in Central and South America and look what it got us"? As one of my superiors, long ago said to me, "noted"! Now, let me press on with my "step two." 

Full Spectrum Operations, or more commonly known in the military as FSO. There................... I said it. I'll pause while some of you spin around in your chairs for a few seconds. If you are finished, let me make my point. Full Spectrum Operations. It's the baseline behind Joint Publican 3-03 / "Joint Interdiction." Is it a military concept? Yes. Does that mean I'm advocating a military operation against the terrorist cartels? No. Are you confused? Let me see if I can clear the air. 

If I had to explain the concept of Full Spectrum Operations to a civilian, and I have, I would start the conversation along this line of thought. Any doctrine designed for the US Military has a requirement to be flexible, and by flexible, I mean it must have the ability to conform to the task at hand. If that task requires the incorporation of civilian agencies as the "lead," then that is precisely how that doctrine will read. Civilians in the "lead"? It's been done over and over again. When I was the Director of Joint Operations in Texas, this modification was the requirement. In the world of DoD's support to civilians, once known as Defense Support to Civilian Authority, civilian agency lead is the norm. 

Okay, if we are getting past the panic of thinking the military is going to classify the terrorist cartels as the "enemy," and military-style doctrine is going to be the "go-to" for dealing with these terrorist. We are ready for me to explain the modifications that will need to take place. By the way, remember when I started FSO, is the baseline of Joint Pub 3-03? Remember what the title of that joint publication is? Yep, "JOINT INTERDICTION." Has the US truly been attempting to interdict the Center of Gravity for the terrorist cartels? I know, another darn, military term, "Center of Gravity." Sorry. Look it up. You may like what you read. In my opinion, the US has played around the edges, all the while attempting to not upset our number one trade partner. We have suffered through uncoordinated, federal agency actions, with each worrying about their own rice bowl.  Folks, this terrorist movement is gaining power by the hour. Even the smallest of groups, Cells, are becoming more emboldened with each event they create. Way off course, I know.

FSO Modification:

If we assume the agreed-upon approach in interdicting terrorist cartel operations is going to be based upon the doctrine of FSO, then critical players in the task will need to be educated on just how the FSO process works. Here is the excellent news, here is where the President's designation decision makes perfect sense. Since 9-11, the number of federal and private agencies, namely Non-Governmental Organizations / NGOs / and allies involved in the "War on Terrorism" has been key to the global response.  What does that mean to this topic? Simple, the understanding of how to execute FSO by all required parties has been taking place for nearly twenty years. What US federal agencies have been involved in Iraq and Afganistan? It's hard to name one that's not been tasked in one way or another. The process of "Joint Planning,  In the Global War on Terrorism, the "Joint" concept is nearly the norm. Do rice bowls still exist? Always. As long as there is the concept of budget battles, rice bowl issues will impact the fight. It takes strong leadership and dedication to duty to keep those fights from crippling the planning and operations process. For twenty years, those rice bowl fights have not prevented the free nations of the world from taking the fight to the enemy. Yep............enemy! 

Declaring FSO as the foundation of interdicting the cartels starts the process. After that, agencies and institutions will fold into the same planning process, they've been operating under for two decades. Folks, this is not "Reinventing the Wheel." Dealing a crippling blow to the terrorist cartels is the vision the President of the United States has set out for agencies to follow. The panic over his statement is utterly unfounded. To be honest, the resistance to the President's designation is nothing more than typical party politics. If we take the tools the world has spent twenty years developing for the Global War on Terrorism, it will not deplete from that war. Yes, that's another argument that's out there, mostly supported by those who have made BILLIONS off of that war. Yep, back to the rice bowl issue. It's hard to get away from. We know how to plan in an FSO environment. We know how to operate in a joint environment. We know how to interdict any enemy out there. It's time to use this doctrinal concept to form the base of our next global war. This next global war is a war  to stop a terrorist movement that is leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people across the world. It's a war to save the nation of Mexico, our number one trading partner. It's a war to save the good people of Mexico, the US's neighbor. It's a war to prevent a much larger disaster, one larger than any action Islamic radicals can create on US soil. I'm speaking of the millions, perhaps tens of millions of good people fleeing a Civil War-torn Mexico. A Civil War that is coming if the terrorist cartels are not "interdicted." Where will those tens of millions of people head? You know the answer. Full Spectrum Operations. We know how to do execute this doctrine. We have the resources. We must now have the leadership, dedication, and, most importantly, unity to execute this plan against the enemy.