POD CAST EXPERIMENT 

Going to try an experiment here. Simply going to post a link to my podcast and see if I can get the same results as my blog post. I hope it works. 

Topic?  China and why it matters. 

https://podcast.app/china-and-why-we-should-worry-e69913117/?utm_source=ios&utm_medium=share

IRAN’S NAVY AND THE DEADLY GAME OF CHESS

So, The Iranian navy commander, not it’s members and there is a difference here, states they are ready to escort the Adrian Daryl-1, with their oil in it, it ordered to do so? A bold statement? Yes. An operation they could actually execute? Yes. An action they could accomplish in a conflict? Only if everything they sent on the mission had a desire to rest on the bottom of the very shallow bottom of the Gulf. Again, a bold statement? Yep. Ready to put the collective money where the mouth is? I bet not. But, and here is the real purpose of this post, this is as always a game of chess and this move is a calculated based on one assumption. Will the US prevent the “escort” from taking place? Brinksmanship? Oh boy, is it ever! I woke up this morning thinking the latest round of protest in Honk Kong was the issue of the day or perhaps the cartels ambushing the Mexican military again, but when I read this, that was it. This is the story of the day. Chess, a game played to the end and that is the danger here.

Moves:

It’s clearly the US’s move in this dangerous game and that move has the US contemplating very few options. Let the Mullahs escort the tanker and the perception advantage once again is clearly Tehran’s. Get between the tanker and any advancing Iranian ship and the advantage goes back to the US. Are US assets closer to the tanker than the Mullahs? Yes. Does that create a dangerous escalation choice for Tehran? Oh yes. Does that mean the that is the COA / Course of Action, the US will take? I have no idea! Figuring out the actions of DC now days is even more complex than this game of chess with the Mullahs. Remember, it’s Pon Farr time in the US and the only thing that matters right now are sound bites and trends in polling data. Twitter.... I forgot Twitter. In my perfect world, getting between that tanker or even seizing it before Iran’s navy can make it there, and that would take days, is the optimum move. If the US pulls that off, than the Mullahs may very well never give the order to escort the tanker. It could be the order was never going to be given in the first place. Could this be just another information operation by Tehran? Yes, it’s very possible. You know who is praying that’s true? Remember those Iranian crew members I referred to. A bluff, that’s what they are praying for. As for the US and UK Navy, can they tell if the Iranian ships are preparing to get underway? You bet. It’s the US move, but the right move is a smart one. Chess. A game that is played until there is Checkmate? Let’s hope not. 

MEXICO. US'S NUMBER ONE TRADING PARTNER AND THE CARTELS

A few days ago I was reading the news and I saw an article that stated Mexico had become the US's number one trading partner. Look, I am no economist and stock market talk gives me a headache, but I have to admit, I stopped to think about that statement for a minute or two. Mexico. the US's number one trading partner. Mexico, the nation run by the drug cartels and and completely corrupt political leaders. Okay, yes, the issue of corruption and government officials is a timeless as well as global reality, but, everything has it's level's of severity and when it comes to corruption in politics, Mexico is in the top tier. So, why did this story on the US's top trade partner strike me so hard? Well, if you know me, you know how hard I've been after this issue of the drug cartels and Mexico and have been so for over a decade. Having said that, let me make my point right up front and then spend the rest of my time in this post showing you why I make this statement. Okay, here we go. The US's "number one trade partner is controlled by the drug cartels, thus, the US's number one trade partner is the cartels! There. I said it. Does that make you angry? Do you disagree? Do you let your political or ideological beliefs hide you from reality? Let me go back and cover a few facts that I've addressed in the past and let's see if you still think I'm way off base. 

Close your eyes and imagine:

Close your eyes. Imagine you are driving down a four or six lane highway heading into let's say, Kansas City or Cleveland. It's 7am, because you live out in the burbs and it takes your an hour or so to get into the city to work. you are approaching an overpass and you spot something that seems odd. As you get closer, your brain begins to tell you that "something" looks like a body hanging upside down from the overpass. Next to whatever that is, is what appears to be a large white sheet with writing on it but you can't make out what it says. Two or three other cars seem to slow down ahead of your but then speed up and keep going. As you get closer, your brain informs you your hunch was correct, it is a body. A body without a head. Like the cars in front of you, you slow down for a moment but then you realize the safest thing to do is just keep going. You might call it in on your cell phone but then you tell yourself, " someone else probably already did". When you get to work, you mention what you saw to your coworkers and several say they saw the same thing but they didn't bother calling it in for the same reason. The next thing you know, you are knee deep in work and the whole episode slides to the back of your mind. Why? because it was the fifth time this year you've witnessed this same scene.

The next week, you work sends you off to another city, let's say, St. Louis. You arrive at the airport, pick up your rental car and head out to the small town about 30 miles away to meet the client. Once again, it's early in the morning when all of a sudden you see traffic up ahead is at a standstill. Strange, given you are heading in the opposite direction of morning rush hour traffic. You creep along for thirty minutes or so and suddenly you see the red and blue lights ahead. A wreck, must be a wreck. Just your luck. You keep creeping along and suddenly, once again your brain transmits a picture you are not sure you understand. A few hundred yards ahead of you, it looks like several vehicles have burned. Not just one, but several and there is crime scene tape all over the place. Well, that could only mean one thing. Someone has been killed in what appears to be a horrible accident. But, as you get closer, your brain gives you an update. It doesn't look like an accident. As your are creeping along, you look down and notice the crime scene tape just about along side you, but you are two hundred yards away from the wreck. Strange. Then it hits you the tape is protecting an area along side the road and the left hand lane that looks to be covered in shell casings. Not just a few, but hundreds. Still you keep creeping, now being moved over into the far right hand lane by cones and police officers, a lot of police officers. What in the world has happened here? Finally. Finally you creep up alongside what appears to be the vehicles involved in whatever took place here. Then your brain sends you the truth. It has figured it out. Those are no ordinary vehicles. They look like large trucks with extra steel welded on their sides. They seem to have gun ports and no windshields. What is this? The next thing you know, you are waved on by the Police and you are past whatever took place. When you get to the client's office, you tell them the amazing story and they reply, "yep. Third time this year". 

What I just described to you was world of the US's number one trade partner. Is it factions of the government fighting for control? Is it a Civil War? In reality, it might as well be. But, don't fear, trade is king and trade is good with Mexico. 

Video:

As I was contemplating how to frame this post, I came across another example of just who truly runs Mexico. It seems one of the cartels, one that goes by the name of CJNG, what that stands for is not important, had it's leader send a video to the President of Mexico / AMLO. I won't slow this post down by giving you all the details, but if you would like to read the story, it's one Borderland Beat. Just look it up. What did this cartel boss have to say to the President of Mexico. Well, he wished him well and then asked him to take action against the CJNG's rival and to make it worth the President's trouble, he was going to give him the names and accounts of the local governor who was working with the CJNG's rival. Man....what a stand up citizen. You know, " See something, say something":).

Again, let me get to the point. This cartel boss was asking the Mexican President to "deal" with the rival and the boss would make sure the territory he has taken, yes he called it, "his territory", would be safer for the President doing so. Stop. Stop to think about this. Imagine one of the old five crime families sending a video to the US President asking him to take out the rival in let's say New Jersey and the "boss" would make sure his territory, not the countries, but his, New York would be able to lead a normal life. Folks, if my point is not sinking in yet, it's because you just don't want it to. Who runs, truly runs Mexico? PEMEX is the life blood of AMLO's socialist agenda. Who is taking PEMEX oil when they want, where they want? Yep. Corruption to the highest levels in Mexico. Just go have a drink with a retired DEA agent who worked Mexico and find out the shows about the cartels are too soft on what is really taking place. 

Yep. The US's number one trading partner is controlled by the drug cartels and everyone in DC knows it. are the Cartels Terrorist? You know my opinion. Is the US leadership, on both sides, going to come to the same conclusion? Number one trade partner. There is your answer! 

HONG KONG AND KASHMIR. AN UPDATE

 Folks, I don’t typically do this, but I read something this morning that compelled me to do a quick follow up on the topic of Hong Kong. For the life of me I don’t understand why the US has suddenly validated the  fears of Beijing.  The rumor and right now it may just be a rumor, of the US tying its trade negotiations to China’s actions in Hong Kong is insane.  I know full well there are people inside the intelligence community and private industry that realize the significance of Hong Kong to Beijing.  To somehow believe that the Chinese can be pressured into allowing Hong Kong to continue to spiral out of control in defiance of Chinese  baffles me .  If this strategy is actually taking place behind the scenes as well, then I’m not sure where this is all heading. Playing the Bluff game for economic leverage  is one thing, but taking part in what could quickly become brinksmanship, well, like I said I’m at a loss .

Kashmir:

 Is it difficult for China to ridicule India over the events in Kashmir and at the same time crush the protesters in Hong Kong? Yes, the answer is yes but the greater question is, does Beijing care?  India understands  the growing relationship between Pakistan and China and they understand the threat that means to Indians future. This is quickly not becoming an issue of protesters and territorial rights. It could be becoming an issue  of Super Power confrontation!  

Sidenote :

 The lack of coverage on both of these issues by Moscow is telling. Yes, there has been some minor press coverage but one would expect far more input from the Russians than what we have seen and that is even more interesting .

 Like I said, just a quick update but these two stories could have major implications for world stability. 

CITIES. HOW ARE THEY CHANGING AND WHAT MIGHT IT MEAN?

Two points right off the bat. 1. I'm going to address cities in the US, but I realize some of the comments could easily apply to many other nations. 2. If you read this and you live in a large city, you may never read my post again. So be it.

Before I get started, I fully realize many of you are going to read this and say to yourself," so what? Cities have been different from the countryside since day one". For the sake of argument, I will state I agree with you. What has changed is time, size and awareness, and so I am going to press on with my opinion and see if I can't make you understand the issue from a different light.

For the past several US Presidential Elections, I've seen a map some organization has complied that depicts the voting status of the nation by county. In each case the overwhelming percentage, like 85 percent or better, of the US landmass has shown to be "Red" or Republican / Conservative.  Each one of these maps has depicted the same results for the "Blue"  or Democratic areas, with only slight variances in percentage. The major cities in the US are "Blue", about 15 percent of the landmass, don't hold my percentages to an exact standard but I know they are really close. What does that mean? Is that phenomenon new? Is it worth paying attention to? Does most of the nation say, " so what"? Well, it's the 21st century and yes, yes it does mean something and let me tell you why.

Back Then:

Throughout time, cites have been their own entity. Yes the people outside the cites new they were there and some were close enough to travel to them if they needed or wanted to, but day to day life didn't revolve around such locations. I can remember driving down the road in Southern Missouri with my Grandfather who was in his 90s, listening to him talk about how the trip we were on that took 90 min use to take him a full day. that was in the early 70s so  you do the math. The Big City was St Louis and people went there for excitement or to purchase things that you simply could not find out in the country. By the way, in my opinion, the area outside the cities is referred to as, "the country" for a reason. Back then, cities were hardworking industrial centers where people went to make their fortune, or so they thought. In the industrial age, cities worked around the clock. There was not rolling up the sidewalks, look it up if you don't know what that means, at 6pm. Back in those days, cities were large, but the majority of the population still lived far enough away they had little in common with "city folk". Elections were won by "stumping" the countryside and not just winning the city vote and here is where my opinion starts to take hold.

What they have become: 

Are cities modern day, technological wonders? Most would say yes, to some degree. Mass transit, huge sports complexes, high rises. Yes, some are amazing to gaze upon. Zoos....did I mention Zoos? St. Louis Zoo.....it's the best in the world....really. Large Cities became modern day marvels and just about everyone wanted to live in one, but then the inevitable happened. Political parties began to realize the major cities were growing so big, they didn't have to " Stump" the countryside nearly as extensively as in the past. The major cites had grown to the point, enough votes could be won just by winning the majority of the votes in the cities. Short answer, the trend of the countryside becoming less relevant had begun. With the onset of unions, they swing to one political party was set into motion, a motion that would last for decades. Promises were made for the sake of votes, nothing new there, and the color of the major cities was nearly cast in stone. Then, the worse thing, for that party that is, began to happen. The jobs began to go away and with that, the fear of the votes leaving the concentrated areas of the large cities became a reality. One party had only one choice, they had to make the large cities the center piece of a voting block that would be too dependent on that party to ever leave the city. Okay. I know this is where some will think I am getting on a soapbox, but if you can prove me wrong, then do so. Large cities became "safe voting blocks" and all that was needed was to continue to provide as many "entitlements" as possible. Now, here comes the really tough love part. Not only did one party come up with a strategy to keep a voting block in the cities, they had to frighten that block into believing someone wanted to take those "entitlements" away from them. "Vote for us or you will be tossed out with the trash"! Yes, fear tactics set in and they were reinforced by just about everyone involved in this particular political party. Well, before too long, large cities were not just economic engines for the nation, they were guaranteed votes...dependent on one party for just about every need the "city folk" may need. Sound outrageous?  Again, prove me wrong.

Look, I could talk all day about the status of large cities in the US, but here is the down and dirty. The rest of the nation began to live with the nickname of, "flyover Country" for a reason. There is a reason this same political party in question has now openly called for doing away with the Electoral College. Why? Because the large cities have a majority of the population now, for now that is, and with that, the political party in question simply doesn't need the "flyover Folks".....but....only if they can get rid of the Electoral Collage. Once again, those pesky Founding Fathers are in the way of power and control.

 A Nation Divided: 

Here is what I have been driving towards. History is a great cornerstone of knowledge, but times do change and complex societies, ones that have over 3 BILLION people able to communicate 24/7/365 without filters, are going to encounter issues that history has not set examples for. What holds a nation together? If you said a common good.... a common goal, then you are on the right track. In the past few years, even decades, how often have you heard, " I don't give a hoot what LA or New York does are thinks. How many times have you heard the major news networks, focus on the coastlines? If you googled CNN or MSNBC for the term, "flyover Country" what would that number be? Folks, the US population is growing apart.

When I was 30 yrs younger, would I have believed I would look the news and listen to major cities openly tell the federal government, federal law doesn't apply in "their city"? Sanctuary Cities...I'm talking about Sanctuary Cities! What if George Wallace would have tried that approach? Oh...that's right...............he did. what happened? His National Guard was federalized and used against him, that's what happened. When I was a Cop in Ft. Worth and St. Louis, would I have witnessed, other than the city of Dallas and that is a story for another day, national leaders from one party, to include the President accusing Law Enforcement in general of being discriminatory or racist? Yes, we witnessed this in the 60s, but it wasn't coming from the federal government. It wasn't coming from the President of the United States.

If large cities are going to be allowed to ignore federal laws, make up their own rules regardless of what the federal government states, where does it stop? One party is in favor of allowing illegal entry to the US in massive numbers and again, those cities that agree simply ignore federal law. Where is that heading? What happens when "Flyover Country" says, " If it's okay for the large cities to make up their own rules, then it's okay for us to make up our own as well". Then what? What happens when "flyover Country" doesn't want to be be affiliated with large cities? Think it can't happen?  Come to Texas and ask anyone who lives outside the cities of Dallas, Houston, Austin....good grief....Austin, San Antonio what they think of what goes on in those cities. Just how much more division can the US withstand? Does it even begin to worry you? it should. The major cities in the US are growing more and more distant from the rest of the nation and nobody on either side seems to mind. In reality, most are even glad it's taking place. Where does that leave the US? People in the US often hear talk of 'division", but are they taking that worn out phrase for granted? Do they really see what the future might hold? Can cities produce energy? No, at least not most of them. Can they produce food? Nope. Can they manufacture the luxury items they are addicted to? That capability is dwindling away.  The fact of the matter is, big cities live off of life support from the areas outside the city. Don't believe me? Watch the next time a Hurricane or Earthquake hits one. Look at New Orleans in Katrina.

The real Danger: 

What do nation state's real enemies constantly look for? yep. weaknesses from within. Was the 60s just an issue of the war and civil rights? Yes, but to an extent. Did our enemy, the Soviet Union, leverage the 60s? You bet they did. Has that concept changed? Absolutely not! It's an old saying and it's one the US has used to it's advantage in the past. " A house divided cannot stand"! The US large cities continue to morph into something the rest of the country is not comfortable with. Morals, Ethics and social norms are growing apart at an alarming rate. Is that a danger to the survival of the nation? Truly, I cannot think of a more dangerous topic. A crazy strong economy is the glue that keeps it together.......for now!  If that glue melts, then what? Worse. Who is out there trying to make that glue melt?  " Nations without borders". Who supports the concept and why? Who supports the idea of taking the world economy off the dollar standard? Is the US living on a razor's edge? That my friends is up to you to decide.

PS. I said this story was applicable to other nations and I can assure you I am correct in that assumption. 

HONG KONG AND KASHMIR. 

HOW ARE THE TWO RELATED? 

Last night, I posted a podcast, they are getting funner with each passing day, on the topic of Kashmir and why the event was not "typical" of the constant tensions between India and Pakistan. At the end of that post, I told everyone I would jump back to the topic of Hong Kong for my next post as that issue seems to be heading for even deeper troubled waters. Well, when I sat down today to collect my thoughts on the Hong Kong issue, it dawned on me, the two are interrelated and far more so than most people realize. So, here we go. Let me draw the lines between the two and see where it takes your opinion. 

Coming of Age:

If the events in Kashmir and Hong Kong show the world anything, it's the reality that in the not too distant future, global issues will be addressed or initiated without the guidance of the West / US.  Now, before you jump to the conclusion this is yet another opinion on the decline of the West / US, let me just say this. You may be correct, but before you give up and don't finish reading this post, let me give you a warning as to why you just can't walk away from this opinion. As a reminder, who is it that Beijing blames for the crisis in Hong Kong? if you saw one of my post on Twitter this morning, @ColDan11, you noticed my swipe at the idiot Nancy Pelosi. For her to come out and make a statement that the events in Honk Kong, " is a beautiful sight to behold", well, as I stated in my Twitter post, many a conflict have been based upon the ignorance of political leaders. Did her words stoke the paranoia in Beijing? How could it not have. Do they see her as a second string idiot? Let's hope so. As much as China would like to blame the US for what is taking place in Hong Kong, at the end of the day, the Emperor knows the real issue is Beijing. The center of the tension is the Chinese assault on individual freedoms. Hong Kong is a threat to China and China knows this could just be the beginning of social unrest inside the Empire.  Try as they may, blaming the US will not solve the unrest they are facing and that makes the whole situation even more dangerous than if the US really was behind the event. 

Kashmir is yet another example of the West / US  sitting back and observing a bad situation become much worse. By the way. We could blame the West / UK for the clueless borders they put together at the end of World War I, but that's a story for another day. What makes this situation even more dangerous than Hong Kong is the reality the two parties involved have nuclear weapons. Did I mention they don't like each other? If you didn't know that, you need to know. It's not bomb-shelter time yet, but the threat is out there. Yes, the US and others can attempt to plug in all the typical breakers that are normally applied to incidents between India and Pakistan, but that whole issue of relevancy comes back to to the forefront. The "issues" between India and Pakistan are not controlled by the West / US. Worse than that, the key player in this game of Risk is the very nation that we just finished talking about. China. How does China manipulate the issue of Kashmir? What side does the Empire take? Are the ties with Pakistan stronger than those with India? Is India a larger threat in the near future? Ah, now there is the issue at hand! Fifty years from now, who does China worry about? the decaying West  / US , or the other nation that will have 2 BILLION people by then as well? India will have huge needs and so will China. Can two nations on the same course keep from colliding? There is a opinion in the US, one I happen to agree with, that it's better to take on China now than attempt to do so twenty years from now. If you ask me, it's the real reason behind the so called Trade Wars. As bad as things might get economically, can the West  / US afford to face a China twenty years from now? Can China wait to see if India falls apart? Should China act to bring India down a few notches now and perhaps avoid a much larger issue down the road? If you are one of those who has sipped the Kool-Aid of an India / China relationship, I'm afraid you've not been paying attention. 

Changing of the Guard:

  Are the days of the West / US manipulating what is taking place in the world coming to an end? Did Obama do more harm than most of us realize? If someone is trying to paint a picture of the West / US being irrelevant in the near future, than they have an agenda are are most likely running for office somewhere. Having said that, here is the stark reality. The ability to control events from a Western perspective is fading, but at a pace most people sitting in their living rooms don't see. Kashmir and Hong Kong are events that DC will will have little impact on and that's only if DC attempts to do so. Don't forget, it's " Pon Farr" season in the US and unless there is a great deal of blood the media can cover, they are all stuck on the political mating dance and nothing else matters. Iran grabbed yet another tanker last week. Get my point?

Times change and often that is not an indication of better times ahead. Did the US start World War I or World War II? Argue if you want over the economic conditions, but the first shots fired did not come from the West. Is Kashmir a real danger? yes. Is China involved in the danger? Yes. Is Hong Kong a real danger? Yes. Is China involved? Yes. Do you see a pattern here? It's not bunker time yet folks, but you may want to have a good set of plans on your desk!