SELFISH PROMOTION TIME:

Well, here I go. First off, let me say, “I know already”. I know how many times in the past I’ve commented about those who post and speak on topics for the simple reason of setting themselves up for self-promotion. Yes, I have called such people ugly names in the past and yes, I fully realize I’ve ignored just about every comment they have ever made, but……but….. this is different. No…..really….this is different. Why? Give me a chance to explain why. 

Several years ago, I was in a deep conversation with a few coworkers about the topic of a true, Third World War. Some in the room, a very “special room”, argued, like many, the world was already in a “Third World War” and the only difference was, how that war was being projected. For the record, I didn’t agree with that mindset and I will tell you why as I explain my selfishness. Anyway, when the conversation was over, it was clear to me the idea the world could jump, not slide, but jump into a true global, Third World War became a reality. I won’t go into details about what was said in this discussion and yes, some of that is because I cannot. What I can tell you is the fact my mind began to contemplate the scenario based on what I knew as well as what I speculated was true. The next thing I knew, I was taking notes and crafting a scenario of what might happen to trigger such a war and what the repercussions would be of such an event. Before too long, I had the outline of what I believed would be a rather interesting “book”. Yes….this is about me penning a book….there….. I said it. What I wasn’t sure of was how to tell the story that was in my head and on my notes. That issue proved to be more difficult than I ever thought it would be. Then I came up with what I honestly thought might be the best answer. Don’t write a novel. Don’t write hero’s and villains. Don’t try to impress readers with describing in great detail the nomenclature of advanced weapons. Don’t focus on melodramatic episodes that all culminate with the climax of the book. Nope. None of that. I decided to write this book as a report. That’s right, a report. A report from the viewpoint of an Officer in the United States Military, imagine that😊, who attempts to capture what took place with a focus on how, why and most importantly, the ramifications of such a war. A report that is broken down into two parts. 1. The war itself and 2. The aftermath and repercussions. 

In this format, the author, who is never named, states up front the reports are written to the best of his ability with the understanding that standard requirements such as references and footnotes were simply not possible. It is also stated the two-part report is based upon the war being over for five years and the concept of capturing what took place seemed to be a duty of this Officer, given he was unaware of anyone else attempting to accomplish the task. It’s style that is crude in structure, just like me, and not based upon academic standards. What the report / book/ attempts to be is a crystal ball into what I believe we are facing in the not so distant future. 

A few Hints:  

​Now, how could I not gain your interest in what I have tried to achieve if I didn’t give you a few hints of what to expect. Having said that, here you go!

▪ The war doesn’t start with the actions of the  USor the Russians or even the Chinese.

▪ The war had been anticipated by the Chinese for a period of time and when the right circumstances took place, their overall plan was put into play. 

▪ The event spins out of control with a speed no one was prepared for. 

▪ The initiating members of the conflict are overwhelmed with the capabilities of the weapons in their possession. They have the weapons,  but they don’t have true strategic policies for their implementation and it becomes too easy to simply push buttons. 

▪ The initial conflict is not based upon nuclear events. 

▪ The impact of true “Offensive Cyber Weapons” is far beyond the knowledge of day to day people and even those leaders in charge of them. 

▪ Decisions are made without consultation and that leads to an environment of panic. 

▪ The impact of social media becomes the driving force in the initial phases of the war. 

▪ Day to day life is far more fragile than anyone anticipated, even those whose job it was to plan for such an event. 

▪ Even with everything that comes of the war, the core value of those people remaining is based upon compassion, but not for governance. That concept is all but lost. 

▪ The desire to “rebuild” changes dramatically. 

All right. Those that have followed my blog for the past eight years can tag me as a hypocrite, but I’m not kidding when I say, I truly wanted to put this concept on paper. Do I care if it sells? Not really. Would I love for people to read it as I made a few dollars for my family? I would be lying if I said no. A few of you that know me, you know why I am more worried about my family and not myself. That chapter is almost written. Do I address anything that I learned in my “classified” years? No. Honestly, the best information in the world comes form day to day events and social media. Sneaking around to find things out is almost unnecessary. ….  Almost! So, there you have it. In the next month or so, I will put my book on Amazon Books. Why them, It’s a format I figured out and that says something. The only other time you will hear me speak of this adventure is the day I post to Amazon. Until then, it’s back to normal, well almost. I’m trying to figure out the whole Podcast business and if you know me, you know why. My ability to gab far exceeds my ability to bang on a keyboard. Col Dan’s Viewpoint on Messy. That’s where it will be soon….I hope! 

Note:

 Thanks to a very special young lady who I asked to draw the cover for this pending book. I told her my vision and she absolutely nailed it. She just finished her freshman year at the University of Texas in Lubbock and I hope it sells enough to put money in her pocket and a smile on her face. You rock Ashley.

BORDERLESS. A DOCUMENTARY INTO THE UNITED STATE’S FUTURE.

Until a friend on Tweeter, @_Watch_Observer, “W”, put me on to this documentary, I had never heard of Lauren Southern. W knows my theory on the weaponization of mass migration and how it has been used to destabilize Europe. When I was finished watching, I had taken over a page of notes and folks, I write small. Before I get into my opinion, let me make one important statement. Take the time to watch Lauren’s work. Watch it with an open mind and then go pour yourself a nice cold drink, you will need it. Great work Lauren, but let me expand upon your story.  

​Okay, as I push forward with this post, my assumption is going to be the readers are going to watch the documentary. If not, much of what I am going to say here will still make sense, but the critical points of this young lady’s work will be more difficult to process without my twist on, “why”…why is this happening.

What did Lauren prove: 

​First off, what Lauren Southern did was show the United States it’s future. Her documentary is a crystal ball that everyone in the US needs to gaze upon. 

Lauren Southern also proved, like so many other events in the world, there is money to be made by other people’s tragedies. The real role of many of the Nongovernmental Organizations / NGOs/ and their ultimate goal of making a huge amount of money off of mass migration is spot on. 

Lauren goes on to show the dramatic changes to Europe brought on by mass migration. Her segment on Ireland is the center peace of this documentary. The scene where the governmental official will not comment on who is paying for the migrants staying in the motels is chilling. 

Lauren does an excellent job of depicting how innocent people are manipulated into being part of this destabilization process. 

Her segment on ISIS in the Camps should have been an alarm bell and in reality, it was, but those in government have chosen to sweep the issue under the rug. Why? Well, that is a whole other discussion. 

Okay, this is a hard-hitting gut check that should be shown on major networks, but it won’t, at least not until someone has the courage to make that happen.

Lauren Southern’s documentary is an outstanding piece of investigative journalism that addresses the issue of mass migration to a level she was prepared to work towards. 

Her answer as to “how” it happens was excellent.

Her answer as to “why” ended with a look at the issues of NGOs making money and the victimization of desperate people, but that is where I would interject, she did not go far enough. 

The Real, “Why”:

​Have you watched the Amazon Prime documentary called, “The President”. If not, add it to your list. It’s the Russian equivalent to the Oliver Stone interview with President Putin, but the portrayal is predictable from the opening moments. History quiz. What was Putin’s cornerstone event in 1999? What made his rise to power all but a matter of fate? If you answered the crushing defeat he gave the Islamic Radicals  in Chechnya, you get the gold star….or maybe… a red one. Ruthless and methodical. Two traits that make him who he is. Hard times? Putin was born into them. Paranoid? How could he not be? 

​Okay,  a repeat of an issue I’ve talked about over and over again. What did the West and NATO promise the Russians after the collapse of the Soviet Empire? Yep, NATO would not move into Eastern Europe. Did that promise hold true. No. ​Let me remind you of the words, “Paranoid” and “Methodical”. The West broke it’s word and did so with all kinds of excuses, none of them being accepted in Moscow. Again and again, over the course of the past 1000 years, Europe continued to manipulate it’s relationship with Russia. Then……………………..then came the new Tsar……Putin. Would he accept broken promises once again? No. Would he implement a plan to counter the West / Europe’s crossed finger handshakes? Yes. Was that plan to destabilize Europe? Absolutely. Would he accomplish this goal by going to war or threatening war with the West? No. Did he find a weapon that would have the same impact? Yes. What was that weapon? Mass Migration! Yes, folks, once again, I speak to the issue of Mass Migration. 

​When Putin visited the Russian troops on the frontlines of the fight for Chechnya, he told them they would have his total support. He told them the future of Russia depended on their actions and together they would defeat the rebels. Result? The indiscriminate destruction of anything near the rebel held areas. Have you ever looked at the history of the battle of Grozny? Take a few minutes to look into the resolve of the Tsar. Flash forward to his plan for Europe. When he moved his forces into Syria, was the goal to stabilize Syria? Was his goal to secure some port? No and those that say so are fools. His goal was to test his new weapon……………..people………….massive amounts of victimized people on the run from a warzone. People who looked so pathetic to the Progressive Liberals of Europe’s governments, that they had to let them in at all cost. What did he know the end result would be? Exactly what you saw take place yesterday in the EU election, the continued rise of Nationalistic movements. Movements that are and will cause a crisis for just about every country in the EU. Was that the plan? You bet it was and……it worked!

​Did those responding to the mass migration events find a way to make money? Yes, they always do. Did other groups find a way to leverage this weapon? Yes. Think of ISIS’s infiltration into Europe. Opportunity came knocking and the Terrorist slipped in the door.  Does this help disguise what is really taking place here? Yes. 

​This documentary did an outstanding job and the fact it didn’t identify the real purpose of this planned mass migration event doesn’t mean you should not watch the video. Please watch it, but here is my point I made at the beginning. Southern’s work is a window into the future of the US. Does anyone think for a second that same weapon is not aimed at the US? Does Venezuela come to mind? Why do you think Moscow told its puppet in Venezuela to stay put? How bad is the situation at the US border right now? Honestly, you don’t want to knowand I work with that issue everyday of the week. 

​Here is my wish. I wish, no, I pray Lauren Southern conducts the same level of investigative journalism as to how the mass migrations are taking place against the US border and I pray she or someone like her does so quickly. If she takes this job on, I have one last piece of advice, get a much better security detail…..much…much better. The dangers to the US’s South make what she avoided in Turkey look like child’s play. Great work Lauren. Push, but be very…..very…careful.

THE US DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS COMMITTING TREASON. DOES ANYONE CARE?

​Treason! It’s a very powerful word, a word that has been tossed around DC since the day Team Donald showed up. Did The Donald commit “Treason”? no. What is the down and dirty definition of “treason”? “The crime of betraying one’s country or adhering to the countries’ enemies”. Adhering? What does that mean? “To stay attached”. Okay, now, there is an important part of my argument. 

Who is talking:

​It’s a fact old Team Obama members have been talking to Iranian officials. What official capacity does Ben Rhodes hold in the current administration? Yep….none! how about Colin Kahl? Same answer. So why are they talking to the US’s sworn enemy? Oh, I see…..it’s just a normal action of private citizens. No need for CNN or MSNBC or any other news agency to look into this right? Funny, that same attitude didn’t seem to apply Team Donald back in 2016. But, here comes the real kicker. It’ not just the “outside” players who are reaching out to the old men in Tehran, it’s official members of the Democratic party, members who hold security clearances at the highest level. Mr. Zarif’s number is on Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s smart phone? Is anyone in the IC or DoJ monitoring that phone? Should The Donald tell the DoJ to get a FISA warrant? Just what is this Sen. And others talking to the tyrannical leaders of Iran about? Is it all totally legal and just another ploy by those that support the “Right” to create a distraction for the actions of the President? You can bet that is or will be the answer that is given. 

What is really taking place: 

​One of the most idiotic statements I’ve heard goes something like this. US Democratic talking point: “We are just trying to confirm what we have been briefed on”…….. What? Are they expecting anyone who has a living braincell to accept that answer? Perhaps inside their new “base”, like little girls that use to be bartenders, but really, that’s the best you can come up with? Congress receives a briefing on the actions of Iran by the IC and they decide to reach out to Tehran’s mouthpieces to “confirm”?

“ So, Mr. Zarif, we were told you are about to use Hezbollah and other proxy fighters to attack US locations in the region because you are upset over the tariffs placed on you? Is that the real story”? Is that what the Democrats expect the average Joe to believe? Let’s even assume for a minute that is the story the Democrats want to stick with. I have one additional question? How did you delineate the information you provided them in that conversation? How did you keep from mixing what was most likely, TS/SCI from information that was non classified? What procedural policy did you follow and trust me, there is a very extensive process. Oh, ya…..what part of this conversation took place on your unclassified Smart Phone? That one must have come right out of the Hillary playbook!  

​Here is the good news. That is not what was going on! What was taking place was a group of Democratic operatives and a few chosen members of the Senate and Congress attempting to strike yet another “deal” with Iran’s leadership. What is taking place is the Democrats are usurping the authority of the President of the United States, but then again, they don’t care. He’s an illegal President in their eyes anyway. Does anyone remember Obama so called off mic statement to the Russians about, “waiting until he is reelected? If you do, then you know what is taking place here. The party that holds Congress and key members in the Senate are attempting to make a “deal” with the Mullah’s puppets. “Hold on for 2 yrs and when Uncle Joe takes the White House, we will fix the nuclear deal. Just calm down for now and we will fix this”. Is that some level of Treason? In my book, it’s the kind of actions the US use to execute people for. Now, some ideological / Academic idiots might call this, “Backdoor Diplomacy”. Problem. “Backdoor Diplomacy” is sanctioned. Does anyone think these actions by the Democrats are sanctioned by the White House?

A Price to Pay:

​Do the Democrats believe their actions are in the best interest of the US? If you got them to admit what they were doing, they would most likely fallback on that stance, but even that wouldn’t be the truth. What their actions are based on is power. If somehow, they could claim they defused the so calledcrisis with Iran, that would have to equate into votes at some point and trust me, in the US, it’s always about votes! So, what is the downside? You will never see the mainstream media make this event into a leading story for months on end. If will most likely  not even be mentioned. So, let’s look at this event through another set of glasses? Let’s look at this topic from the standpoint of our enemies.

The Mullahs. 

Can you imagine the briefing that took place back in Tehran when the reality the US Democrats were willing or even requesting to speak with the Iranian government? Did they reach out or did the Democrats? In the long run, it doesn’t matter. By the way, did the IC pick up on this traffic and how it began? You bet. That’s when the FISA process should have come into play, but who knows, maybe it did. Okay, back to my point. Once the old men in Tehran realized that some level of communications was going to take place, who did they tell? The Russians? Nope…..no love there. The Chinese? Same answer. Assad? Nope, just a puppet and one they probably don’t trust anymore anyway. They didn’t say anything to anyone. What they did was sit down and figure out how to leverage what might be taking place. What they did was decide to play along with the game or not. Enter, Mr. Zarif and here is what you can bank on. Before the conversations took place, a list of desired outcomes and worthless promises were developed. Then and only then did Mr. Zarif speak with anyone. Oh, another….by the way….what ever is on his Smart Phone….you can bet the IC read it…….and has it. Sen. Feinstein may want to think about that, unless the Chinese spy she had on her staff for years was able to keep that from happening. Yep….true story. 

​What would be the Mullah’s goals of these discussions with the Democrats? In my opinion, two strategic issues would be put on the table. 1. The relief of sanctions upon Trump’s departure. 2. An assurance they were going to defeat The Donald in 2020. And what would the old men in Tehran be expected to give up? In reality…………..absolutely nothing. They would simply have to go back to the days of John Kerry…….post a few photos of group handshakes…make a few worthless statements to the press and sign some worthless documents. So, in the end, the risk to this whole process taking place is all on the US Democratic Party, but then again, who is going to make a stink over it? It won’t be the US media. Will the US DoJ do the right thing? Even if they do, the public that supports the Dems won’t accept it. You could catch Mr. Zarif handing Sen. Feinstein a bag of money and the headlines would read, “Trump forces senior democratic leaders to take action to save the US from a war with Iran”. 

​I labeled this section of my post, “ A Price to Pay” and I did so for one true reason. What does anyone who truly understands that region of the world think may come of all of this? What if the Democrats are able to strike a “deal” with the Mullahs? What if we go back to the days of photo ops and handshakes? What if Iran’s Tyranical government stays in power and becomes more embolden by proxy fighters who have more capabilities than at anytime in the past? What if Iran’s nuclear program is put back on track for the sake of making the rest of the world think the Democrats avoided a war in the region? If you guess a real war in the region, a war unlike any we have witnessed since WWII, then you are the prize winner today. Let the Democrats choose making a deal with Iran over providing Israel with the belief they are going to not have to go it alone against Iran and you have set in motion the same ending we were heading for if Hillary would have won. Oh ya…that’s right …she did win….. she won the popular vote against a Russian Spy. Go on Democrats….keep pushing, after all, it’s all about staying in power and whatever that takes. I have all the confidence in the world that’s what you will do. Treason. It’s a word that no longer has meaning in the US, unless you are voted into the White House by the Electoral College….another issue the Dems are sure to go to work on.

HAS PRESIDENT TRUMP FOUND HIS MOVING “REDLINE”

Can a series of Tweets change the course of actions of a group of tyrannical fanatics who have been in power for over forty years? Are The Donald’s Tweets truly meant for the old men in Tehran or are they just rambling statements made to his base? What does the rest of the world think of these statements? Isn’t everyone use to them by now? How does a statement about Iran no longer existing play in Moscow and  Beijing? Did they even bother to read this latest statement? Does anyone really react to these Trump Tweets other than CNN and MSNBC? Here is the real question and it’s the only one that matters right now? Why. Why did The Donald send out this rather radical Tweet? What is going on that has him reacting the way he is?

The Status of the Mullahs:

               I said this the other day but let me make the statement again. Things have gone from bad to worse for the old men in Tehran. Stories continue to fly over the issue of Moscow’s attitude towards the Mullahs. Short answer. It’s getting worse and the Mullahs know it. Think that bothers them? You bet it does. Have they ever trusted the Russians? No. Have they worried over the concept of being used by Moscow? Everyday of the week. Do they believe the Russians would cut a deal with the US over Iran’s actions in the region if the Russians got something for it in return? Silly question. Long story short, the top cover from Moscow has so many conditions and none of them guarantee the survival of the Mullah’s rule.

               Money. The Mullahs are low on funds and that account is growing smaller by the day. Even when they deprive their own people of just about everything you could think of, they still can’t break even. Now, the rumors grow they can’t pay Hezbollah or other proxy fighting groups. How do you think that is going over for a bunch of young men who carry a gun, not because they are patriotic Persians or Shia, but because it gives them a paycheck and it’s fun? The Mullahs are being squeezed on all sides and they have only one person to blame, The Donald. Dwindling funds, and a public that grows more restless with each passing day, all the while order is expected to be kept by a group that is seeing pay become an issue. Yep….good luck with that scenario. What does this all mean for the rest of the world? Simple, and it’s an answer that has not changed for thousands of years. A leader that is in real trouble is most likely willing to do anything, at some point, to stay in power. Create the outside threat you say? Yep, that’s the historical answer. Take chances you would typically never take? Yep, that to. Risk it all if you think the end is near? Yes. So, just what was all this intelligence we heard about last week based on? Just how good is the US and “others” at seeing what Iran is up to? Real good…….real….real……good. 

               The old men in Tehran are in real trouble and the idea of playing poker with the US is the game we are witnessing unfold. Limited proxy events that give the Mullahs the ability to hide behind probable denial, that is where we stand as of today. 4 ships attacked, successfully I might add, along with an attack on a pipeline network, that was the first calculable series of events that Tehran put into motion. Here is the bad news, for the US that is. It drew little to no response. Was Tehran looking for a counterstrike by the US? To some degree most likely. Where they surprised when nothing happened? Undoubtedly. Did that nonresponse lead to the rocket attacks today in Baghdad? I would say yes. So, two weeks into this war of words and unmanned smart mines, how does the scorecard look? Well, it’s not good for the US and it’s not good for a very unpredictable Saudi Arabia. Why does the scorecard look that way? Why is Tehran scoring on the perception game?

The Donald’s Redline: 

               A few days ago, I made the comment it seemed Team Trump was so committed to “ The Deal of the Century” that an attack on four ships, after Iran was told not to, would go unanswered. It also seemed the Israelis were told to hold their fire on an event in Gaza that should have resulted in that area being reoccupied. Short answer, “ The Deal of the Century” could not be nullified by a regional crisis. How could the US / Team Trump/ land the “deal” if the whole area was in a shooting match? If the perception is, the US is not going to be pushed into something before they can place the “deal” on the table, then the opportunity to pick away at the mighty US became a very tempting concept. Could Tehran terrorize the EU into giving in on supporting Iranian demands / blackmail / by taking actions that convinced them a regional war was near? Why do you think Tehran came up with their, “you have 60 days to meet our demands” stance?

               As all of this is taking place, what happens? The Donald sends out a Tweet that sounds like a repeat of his threat to North Korea. So, in a way, The Donald put’s down his version of a “Redline” and backs it up with a Tweet? Twitter Warfare! I’m not sure that is a fully developed weapon’s platform. Yes, the perception poker game is being won by the Mullahs, but they have one problem. It’s not making them any money and folks; the people of Iran are not on the Mullah Fanclub list. What the Mullahs need is a series of events that scares the EU into giving them everything they want or at least enough to keep them in power and that means being able to pay Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and a dozen or so other proxy organizations, not to mention the IRGC and al-Quds. This whole thing is a game of survival and the ones trying to survive are as ruthless as they come. A few rockets in Baghdad and a few crippled ships, that’s not going to get it done and that is very…..very…..bad news. Yet, the news might be, just might be worse.

Money Talks.

               Let’s assume something here. Let’s assume part of the “Deal of the Century” was a two part plan.

Part One: Squeeze Tehran’s ability to make money. Squeeze so bad that paychecks to proxy groups could not be cut.

Part Two: Put an economic package on the table that equates into real jobs and real investments for not only Palestinian territories, but the immediate region as well. Bring the wealth of other Arab nations into the equation and tell the typical person on the street better days are coming and it’s not just a bunch of political words. Make the people believe it so much, they decide the time to stop supporting or tolerating the radicals has come. Yes, give real hope.

               Why do I bring that assumption up? Easy, it appears the economic slice of the “Deal of the Century” is the first part to be placed on the table. Okay. Will it work? Will it lead to a better starting point for the more difficult part of the “deal”? On paper, it sounds interesting, but here is the problem. Once again, the old men in Tehran get a vote. Just think of what they would be willing to do if they truly believed someone was going to pull the rug out from under their proxy fighters. What happens if the people of Gaza see jobs and investments coming, but they have to give up on Hamas first? Look, here is the bad news. The decisions on how the “Deal of the Century” will be approached are made in Tehran. Does anyone think the Mullahs will play along with this “deal”, a deal that spells their end to power? What are they willing to do in order to prevent that “deal” from taking place? My bet, a great deal more than four oil tankers or a few rockets into Baghdad.

               Have the rumors of how, “The Deal of the Century” might unfold made it back to Tehran? Have key players in the region been given a readahead? Does Tehran have the ability to pick up on these rumors and more importantly, hear the possible responses from key players? You bet they do. Something this huge has been and is being talked about around the clock. That’s why it’s called “ The Deal of the Century”. You can assume Tehran knows what is coming. You can also assume they have known for several weeks if not months. Did that put Tehran into motion? Did that start a process to disrupt this “deal” and did that process become the intelligence the US and others picked up on? If you ask me, I say yes, but even if I’m wrong, one thing is a given. The next few weeks are going to be very, very dangerous for the entire region. How to keep Saudi in check. That is my next topic, but I’ve got to ponder on a few things first. In the meantime. Let’s be entertained by the President and his Tweets!

IRAN AND THE RUMORS OF CONFLICT

Well, my attention is once again pulled back to the Middle East. I’ve tried to stay focused on issues South of the US’s border, but it seems the hottest spot in the world is getting a little warmer. Is there truly a pending event about to take place in the region? Is that possible event based upon US and Iranian tensions? My gut tells me yes, but, it’s the how, why and when, that seems to be the most important items at the moment.

Why:

            Why does it seem something is about to take place? Well, first off, because US officials are saying they might and in my old line of work, that’s a big “hint”! Next, the US Department of State issues an evacuation statement to nonessential US citizens in Iraq. Then we see the withdrawal of the Spanish frigate. Now, this one is strange given the other indicators show a likely target area of Iraq. What would make the Spanish want to pull out? Seems like they don’t want to be part of something. So, it’s not about their safety. It’s about their willingness to be involved in something they may not support. Okay, next step. The Germans announce they are pulling their support from operations in the AOR/ Area of Operations Iraq. What were they providing, basically Special Operations to include intelligence support. Now, do they pull back to the Main Operating Bases / MOBs/ or, are they leaving the whole AOR? Good question, but the point is made. Germany doesn’t seem to want to be involved as well. On top of all of this, you place the flow of information on US “strike forces” being sent into the AOR , the meeting in Bagdad just last week and you have a few more “clues”.

Why / Part Two:

            Alright, we see the tension between the US and Iran has increased recently and some would even say it’s done so dramatically, but is there a reason why? Has something changed? Let’s assume the Mullahs decided it was time to up their game by deciding to announce certain areas of the nuclear agreement were going to be discontinued. Why? Because the real biting part of the oil sanctions kicked in, that’s why.  Let’s assume that decision was made several months ago and let’s assume we picked up on this decision by intelligence methods. Let’s also assume the Mullahs decided to up the pressure around the AOR and that included moving assets into areas that could threaten US forces and US interest. Again, assume the US saw this taking place. Folks, this is typically how a pending crisis like this unfolds.

            The sun comes up on a particular morning and the US President’s threat brief is given. In this brief the issue of Iranian decisions is reviewed along with Iranian actions. It’s at that point in time the President and his key staff agree, we would hope, that a reaction to Iranian events must be planned. That process typically starts with a warning order to identified units and assets based upon an existing Course of Action / COA/ Central Command has come up with incase of actions against Iran.  Once that process is underway, a deliberate messaging campaign is usually initiated…..I stress…….usually! The purpose is to begin the process of influencing the enemy’s actions and to let them know you are aware of what they are doing. Hint…you don’t do this by Twitter…. or at least the US didn’t use to do it that way….times change. At the same time, the process of informing partners and allies gets underway. Now, there is always levels of this awareness. Those that are going to be potential players in the event are drawn in first and at a much deeper level. Those that need to know in order to show open support, but have no potential play in the event, those that could be impacted by the event but have no need to know any level of detail, that makes up the bulk of what types of notification needs to be accomplished. Once that process takes place, the media is usually all over the story, unless they are on their daily mission to prove The Donald is a spy.  Disrupting to what might need to be accomplished? You have no idea!

            Here comes the tricky part. As a potential event is being planned, it is anticipated the enemy or other enemies become aware of what you are up to and with that, they typically begin to change their options. In this case, strike first, but not in a way anticipated….the four oil tankers and the pipeline events. Okay, without going on and on, there you have it, a down and dirty as to why we are seeing this event unfold. Let me jump into the next core issue? How!

How:

            If we assume something is going to happen, then how might it take place? Are there indicators of how this event might take place? Hold on because this answer is only addressing one side of the event. The other side is determined by the opposition.

            If you look at the assets in the AOR, the ability to strike Iranian targets in Iraq already exist. Here is the other cold hard fact, the US doesn’t need all the assets to be in theater to strike what appears to be a select group of targets. By the way, don’t just count US assets. You may want to remind yourself who has been pounding Iranian units in Syria for the past several years. Anyway, if Iranian controlled proxy groups, groups controlled by the IRGC  and al-Qud forces, have been moved to pose a greater threat to US forces and allies in the region and that change is deemed unacceptable to US leadership, then you have the key ingredient as to “how” the event might take place. Again, do not forget the trip to Bagdad late last week. That message was most likely very clear. “If Iranian assets on your land don’t change their current status, they will be struck and we will not notify you or ask for your approval”. That was the message, I can almost guarantee you.

Tactics:  

If Iranian assets in Iraq truly are the targets, how would they be struck? From the air and good luck to any anti air units that attempt to stop that action. Is that it? Would that be the extent of this pending operation? Let me answer that question by asking one. What else would the US need to do? Would ground units be required? No, with the exception of perhaps some Special Operators to verify targets, but even that is not truly necessary. So, this pending event could be much like the IDF actions in Syria? Yes, only the IDF / Israel doesn’t telegraph their intentions. Would it be larger than the last two rounds of US actions in Syria? Most likely, but that would be determined by the number of Iranian supported units in a position to threaten US operations. So if it seems like this pending action is not much different than the past few executed by the US and Israel, then what is all the fuss about? Intel…..folks…..intel!  Have the Mullahs decided to respond if their operations in Iraq are struck? You can bet the US and its allies have a good idea what has been talked about inside the halls of Tehran. Remember, the enemy gets a vote. If initial targets are struck with the same tactics as in the past, but the indicators are the enemy will respond this time around, then the tactical capability to respond to that reality must be planned for, thus, the increased number of assets brought into the AOR. In a way, that scenario has already taken place with the oil tankers and the pipeline. Look. It’s one thing to smack a few units inside Syria, but to attempt to change the course of actions of Tehran in Iraq, that is a very different and much more complex problem-set. 

Follow on targets? Have they been planned for? You bet they have. Are they based on the possible courses of action / COA’s the IC has picked up on from Tehran. Most likely. Never forget this. Conflict is an issue of potential escalations. The enemy gets a vote. Just how desperate are the Mullahs? By the way, the rumors of the Russians moving to neutralize the Iranian influence in Syria are more than rumors. Stop to think about that for a second. Sanctions that are biting worse than ever before, a public that is still fuming over the lack of response to the nationwide floods and Moscow finally making their play to make Syria’s future fit Russia’s goals……..not the Mullahs. That’s a recipe for real…real…. Trouble. Does that change the tactics? Does that mean the US could be looking at another Iraq or Afghanistan? I don’t think so, but you never know what the pressure is from those that do not want to feel irrelevant. If it’s a repeat air show, where does that leave the future budgets for the ground forces? Think that doesn’t come into play? Then, you don’t know DC. Yes, the US and allied forces must be ready for a disproportionate response from Tehran. Yes, that would require additional assets into the AOR, but that doesn’t mean the tactics will change. Bottom line, nobody needs ground troops if this goes South. 

When:

I can remember sitting in the sandbox for month after month with each passing day having a rumor the war was going to start……..Desert Storm. Then one day………it did.  So when does this potential event take place? US citizens have been warned to leave Iraq…not the region, so that’s interesting. Those that don’t want to be part of the event have started to pull out. Additional assets are already operational in the AOR. ( Don’t forget the Israelis). So, when? Answer….that’s a good question. I’ve seen these types of events go write up to the wire and then get called off. I’ve seen them take months to actually execute, but that was based on a major forced buildup. Here is my bet. The “window” of operations was based upon communications. First the communications with Moscow over what the US is willing to do and then secondly, the communications that went from Baghdad to Tehran last week………along with the urgent message from Qatar to the Mullahs as well.  Having said this, here is what truly matters. Just how desperate are the Mullahs? Just how hopeless do things seem to be. I tell you, you cannot underestimate the issue of Moscow pulling back on it’s open support to the Mullahs. At the end of the day, what Moscow wants is the ability to influence the flow of oil and gas in the region. The dreams of the Persians are meaningless to the Russians. What’s in it for them or, what price is Moscow willing to pay to save the Mullahs? Here is one last issue to ponder and I’ve said this time and time again. The Mullah’s vision for Iran may be an All or Nothing approach, but what about the leadership of the IRGC / al-Qud, Regular Army? Is that their vision. Are they willing to get into a confrontation that could lead to the destruction of everything Iran has going for it? If it gets that bad and you have “friends” in Moscow and or DC who are willing to let you be the next top dog, do you jump off the edge of the cliff for the sake of the old men in Tehran. Are we close to that point? Could be.

 Note:The IDF may have held back on this last round of rockets from Gaza, Iranian supported, for a reason. Perhaps they knew a much more important event was just over the Horizon. Does The Donald’s Son in Law, Boy Wonder, get to put his “Deal of the Century” on the table first? If so and Tehran knows that, then more oil tankers better get ready for rough times. Oh ya…Keeping the future King in Saudi in check while this goes on………..now there is yet another danger zone, but that is a story for another day. 

THE DRUG CARTELS….. “ A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER”!

Yes, it was a typical Clancy movie and its objective was to paint the US government as the ultimate bad guy, but besides his bid to make more money off another action packed thriller, was Clancy really on to something? Are the drug cartels, the Mexican drug cartels, a Clear and Present Danger to the United States? My answer is yes, and if you don’t like that answer, I guess you can stop here and go do something else. If you are wondering what case I can make for this stance, then by all means, continue to read on.

Mass Migration:

Is the US in a crisis right now with the mass migration issues taking place along it’s southern and Southwestern border? To the folks who live along the coastlines, most likely not. It’s an issue that is over a thousand miles away and they only have to turn the channel on the cable news to avoid the whole topic. To the people who live along the border with Mexico, you know…….fly over country….. it’s an issue that touches your day to day life in almost everyway possible. Let me give you a number and then let me drive on. 30,000……….30,000 illegal entries in just 10 days! That is what the US Border Patrol announced this week. 30,000 in 10 days! It’s never happened to the US in that number. It is an unprecedented event and that’s why USBP put the statement out there. Okay, let me move on.

Factors behind the Mass Migrations:

Are most of these people from Central American nations? Yes. Are they leaving because their countries have become increasingly dangerous to live in? In most cases yes. What is creating this dangerous environment? A failed government? yes. A failed economy? Yes. A failed legal system? Yes. A complete lack of trust by the people in their governments? Yes. So, how did all of this happen? What factors have led to this level of collapse? Short version, who is to blame? If you ask the typical academic, their answer will rotate around the poor vision the US has had for the region for over a hundred years and it hurts me to say this, but they are mostly correct. The US has fixated on Europe, Asia and the Middle East since the end of World War I and folks, that was over 100 years ago! Now, the US has woken up to millions of people who feel desperate enough to take their children by the hand and start walking. Walking towards an unknown future. A future that is filled with danger and despair and yet, they walk. Well, is that it? The US just accepts it’s their fault and prepares to let anyone who wants in to just come on in? that seems to be the stance of one US political party. Oh by the way, when they show up, they are to be so eternally grateful for that stance they will vote for that party the rest of their lives and their children’s, children’s lives as well. No alternative motive there! As a friend stated a few weeks back, if those same people were White Russians and they were all wearing MAGA hats and T-Shirts, what would that same party’s stance be? Okay, let me move on. Yes, the US has failed Central and South America, but if the US is to make that an issue of the past, if the US is to “right the ship” of the Americas, how does it start? Yes, the past few Presidents have put into place a few policies here and there and even spent a few billion dollars on looking like they care about the issue, but in the long run, it changed nothing. The US and key partners in the region, Brazil, Columbia, Chile and Argentina to name a few, have to start a true course correction. They have to collectively address the fundamental issue, corruption.

What is the primary factor in the status of the Central American nations? Corruption. Corruption based on what? Drug money. How do you get a Honduran Police Officer to do his or her job when they can make ten times their yearly salary in a week by just simply not doing their job?  Folks. Here comes the hard part. You take out the people providing them the option. Yep, you take out the drug cartels. By the way, when you hear, “drug cartels”, don’t limit yourself to thinking in terms of cocaine or methamphetamine. Think in terms of stolen gasoline and human trafficking. Drug cartels have adapted to the market and the opportunity to make money has never been so good.

Let me speed things up. The cartels are the primary issue that must be addressed in the region. Until they are neutralized, the ability to stabilize the nations that are producing the people in the human waves will have no chance of stopping the flow to the US. The US cannot continue to address this issue at its border. That’s too late. That’s like stopping the car bomb at your doorway.

The Real Danger:

            Some of you have heard me mention this on Daniel Horowitz’s PODCAST, a guy who get’s it by the way, but the greatest danger of the US’s Southern neighbors being destabilized comes from the US’s enemies. A crisis on the US’s border is an event that draws resources and attention from other areas in the world. If I wanted the US to reduce its attention on Europe or the Middle East or even Asia, South China Seas, I would do everything I could to create a crisis in the US’s own backyard. With a little off the radar support here and there, it’s fairly easy to keep these Central America and even South American countries in crisis mode. Who is backing the current government in Venezuela by the way and why? Do the enemies of the US see the drug cartels as useful, proxy tools to disrupt the US? Yes. Did these same enemies try this same tactic with the spread of Communism in the region for over 30 yrs? Yes. Why should they not support, directly or indirectly, groups that can produce the same outcome? Have the enemies of the US refined the weapon of mass migration to bring about political change in the EU? Yes. Are these enemies willing to support this same weapon against the US? Yes. Look. The cartels are the primary reason the nations of Central America remain in a collapsed state, that and the US’s pathetic policies towards the region.

            Can mass migration destabilize the US? Take a look at Europe. Can the issue of mass migration further a growing divide between the American people? Yes. Do the US’s enemies see the US population as divided more than ever before? You just have to read their controlled media outlets to get that answer. The Coastlines don’t care, and one party is actually in favor of the whole event, much like the current government in Germany and look what that has gotten them. Yes, the US needs to start a huge project of realigning its priorities to systemically solve this crisis, but in the interim, one fact stands true. The cartels present a clear and present danger to the near-term stability of the US. It is time to identify them as what they are…..terrorist organizations. Stop calling them Transnational Crime Organizations. The impact of what they believe in, controlling whatever ground they operate on, is not different than any current terrorist group. Hamas is about power and money. Hezbollah is about power and money. The cartels are about power and money. They are terrorist. The US needs to treat them as such and then start the process of truly unifying with the whole region, not just looking down it’s nose at what is taking place from the coastlines. DC can begin to feel the pain of “fly over country” or that “fly over country” may just “deal” with the issue themselves and that is exactly what the US’s enemies dream of…… A US that is so divided, it no longer has any vision.

What I want to hear and I want to hear it NOW ……is…” Knife this is Variable”!!!

THE SEEMINGLY NEVER-ENDING GAME OF ROCKETS.

What took place between last Friday and late last night in Israel and Gaza? The answer……the same thing that has been taking place time and time again. I could go down crazy rabbit holes on topics like OODA loops and try and impress everyone like some of those out there looking to score the next book deal, but I won’t. Let me put this to you in good old fashion Joe Six Pack terms. Israel continues to get it’s A.. handed to it on the battlefield of world perception. How many times have I addressed this issue of Hamas and other proxy groups in Gaza driving Israel’s government crazy? Too many.  So, let’s get down to it!

Why is this Happening:

            Again, for the sake of simplicity, let me give you a few options to review and then I will tell you what one I support.

1.     The relationship Trap. Israel is nearly paralyzed by The Donald’s Son in Law’s, Boy Wonder, pending Middle East Peace Plan. The relationship between The Donald and Netanyahu is the strongest Israel has ever had with the US. So, here is the problem. To take the actions that are truly required to neutralize the attacks from Gaza, Israel would have to take actions that would kill any hope of even bringing Boy Wonder’s plan to the table.  By the way. I don’t care what that plan calls for, it will be rejected outright before anyone from the Palestinian side even takes the time to read or hear it. Why? Because the decision process doesn’t take place inside the Palestinian movement. It takes place in Tehran. In short, Netanyahu is holding back in order to avoid an opportunity for the US plan to be dead on arrival. Remember……it already is!

2.     Casualty Aversion! Israel, like the US, has become completely casualty adverse. Moving into Gaza, all of Gaza, would be costly not only for the people of Gaza, but for the people of Israel and the IDF. The power of social media and 24/7 cable news is a tool the enemy has learned to leverage far better than any nation in the West. In today’s “modern conflicts”, the report of 100 dead at one time holds the same social shock power as 15,000 dead in one event such as WWII. The government of Israel and the US have absolutely no confidence their citizens would support any operation with such results and if that operation was required to continue for weeks or months, both governments are convinced they would fall. Who knows this? The enemies of both nations……………….that’s who. Within hours of this latest round of rocket diplomacy starting, BBC’s lead photograph was of a young Child in Gaza sitting on a pile of rubble.

3.     Orders from the Top. Who gives the orders to Hamas, Hezbollah and most of the other groups to start an operation? If you don’t believe it’s the Mullahs in Tehran, then you need to stop reading my post and go spend your time somewhere else.  Last week, the 2^nd stage of the oil sanctions took hold and the Mullahs didn’t like it. They have had to move leaders inside the IRGC and even talked of placing them under the Iranian Army. Why? Because things are not going well and last weeks additional sanction actions just made a bad situation worse. Now the rumor is Iran is contemplating an “event” against US interest in the region and thus, a Task Force is moved into place. Well, that may be true, but I will tell you what is a fact. The actions taken by Hamas and others inside of Gaza were not based on the decisions of local leaders. Sisi and the Egyptian intelligence heads, think about that for a minute…. Intelligence heads working on a ceasefire….not the Egyptian version of their Department of State, walked away from the ceasefire process last week. The story goes, they couldn’t get Hamas and the Islamic Jihad reps to agree to terms. Why? Because they don’t make those decisions and Tehran wants no “ terms”. Egypt and Israel talk….everyday….around the clock and it should be no surprise Israel issued such a stern warning last week over any pending actions during their remembrance events. Short answer, everyone knew it was coming. So, did Netanyahu know this next round of rocket diplomacy was coming? Yes. How could he not know? Tehran was looking for a response to the 2^nd phase of the oil sanctions and the Hamas rocket game was something like, 10-0. Ugly and a guaranteed embarrassment for Israel, the orders went out and the rockets started. By the way, the orders to stop didn’t come from some “agreement” reached by the UN, Egypt and Qatar.

Okay, I know you have caught on by now as to my pick. Yep…. it’s all three. For Netanyahu and The Donald, this is the Perfect Storm and they are both caught in its high seas. Here is the kicker and the most dangerous reality. They both know who is making these events take place and they both know what is at risk…. A US attempt, yet another one, of finding a peace process for the region.

 Unintended Consequences:

            As brilliant as this plan may seem to the old men in Tehran, it has an obvious risk they seem to be underestimating. Israel cannot afford to retake Gaza, at least not at the current casualty rate the people of Israel are suffering. Team Trump, to include Boy Wonder, cannot afford a major campaign by Israel prior to the release of the Peace Plan. So, then what? What does that mean to the Mullahs? Can this go on forever? How does the firebase that Gaza has become for Tehran insure the future of Iran? It doesn’t!

            Tehran’s plan has been to prevent the risk of a US backed peace agreement in the region and to cultivate this plan, they have utilized the firebase built on Israel’s border. Folks, I am here to tell you, that plan is built on shattered glass.  Netanyahu is sick and tired of watching Hamas and Islamic Jihad taking yet another victory lap at the expense of his legacy and the safety of Israel. Yes, he has been wiling to holdback what needs to take place in order for The Donald’s pledged plan to be formally place on the table, but the price he is paying is growing by the hour. The morale of the IDF Commanders and Line Units is taking a heavy hit. Simply put, this cannot continue for much longer. But, and this is a huge but…….. it’s becoming clear Team Trump’s “plan” is being pushed further into the Summer and for reasons Netanyahu simply cannot accept. Yep….it’s campaign time again in the US and the risk of Team Trump’s plan being dead on arrival is being evaluated heavily by the campaign heads. Two things happen in a typical US Presidential race when there is an issue that might impact the outcome. 1. The issue is pushed off the table until after the election. 2. It is allowed to play out early so the perception process has time to move on to the next issue. What option does anyone believe Netanyahu is pushing for? Can he afford to let Tehran play the rocket game for the foreseeable future? He was just reelected, so he is politically safe, but what about the people of Southern Israel? What about the tens of thousands who are not adapting to living out of their bomb shelters more than their own homes? What of the impact on the IDF? How many more times can they be pushed to the border of Gaza only to be told to turn around?

            When the phone rang this weekend and The Donald was told His buddy was on the line, what did he tell him? Be patient? Hold on? I need you to not overreact. 700 rockets and even rumors of wire guided weapons fired into Israel. What would the Donald do it that was taking place along the Mexican Border? You can bet that is exactly the stance Netanyahu took. “Put the plan on the table now. You know they are going to spit on it. Let’s get this out of the way so I can do what needs to be done.”

There is one other option and it’s an option right up the alley of how Trump thinks. Hit the people calling the shots. Hit the leadership of those calling for the rocket attacks. You don’t need to attack the Iranian military in its totality. The ability of the IDF to inflict damage on the Mullah’s number one shield, the IRGC, has been proven time and time again in Syria. Perhaps now is the time to take that concept to a whole new level? As the Abraham Lincoln and other assets are moved into position, it’s clear the unit members of the IRGC should be taking their prayers during Ramadan a lot more seriously.