“FIFTEEN DAYS IN JUNE”

The following is a scenario I have developed on what would lead to a true Mass Migration Crisis on the US border and what the consequences would be. It’s my opinion, but it’s based on my observations of the issue since 2011.

JUNE 2019:

In June of 2019, a series of murders in Mexico City of  local store owners resulted to an organized march protesting the lack of security in the city. 
Several of the murdered store owners were vocal in their warning to stand up their own militia, commonly referred to as “Autodefensas”. 
President Obrador was informed the protest were supported by a group known to have ties to a movement on Mexico’s campuses that had been affiliated with , Yo soy 132 / I am 132. 
This group had strongly supported the concept of the Arab Spring in Mexico in 2012.

The protest continued for fifteen consecutive days and grew violent on the fifth day. 
A policy of restraint by the Mexican authorities was deemed ineffective after a large number of more prominent businesses in Bosques de las Lomas district were attacked resulting in several large fires. US media networks began to cover the protest in Mexico city after the events in the more prominent business areas. 
The President had given daily press conferences with each revolving around the issue of social injustices in Mexico and the imbalance for the distribution of wealth. 
The government’s attempt to show empathy created an unintended consequence that resulted in the most violent actions on the fifth day.

On the morning of the sixth day of protest, a much stronger show of force was visible in the streets of Mexico City. 
World media coverage had increased dramatically and the number of individuals who were on scene posting to social media was estimated to be over 5,000. 
By the evening of the sixth day, the violence in Mexico City spread dramatically. 
A group who called themselves “Los Defensores” were seen in several locations of the city attempting to protect privately owned businesses. 
These businesses were in the less affluent areas. 
 The group’s statements on social media accused the government of only protecting the upper-class areas of Mexico City.  
Leaders of the protest group stated their support for the Los Defensores.
 By the evening of the sixth day, the perception of unity between the protesters and the members of “ Los Defensores” was prominent on all major social media networks.

On day seven,  Doctor Jose Manuel Mireles, a leading figure in Mexico’s Autodefensas movements, stated the government needed to listen to the needs of the people before the situation in Mexico City became out of hand. 
On day seven, units from SEDENA stationed near Mexico City were dispatched to support law enforcement operations in the city. 
The President had been reluctant to order such actions given his campaign promise to remove the Mexican military from the streets of Mexico. 
By the evening of day seven, reports on social media showed large protest in several other major cities throughout Mexico, most notably in Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez and Puebla.
 The protest in these cities were reported to be supported by organizers from the same movement, “ I am 132”. 
The Mexican government also became convinced that other outside sources were supporting these protest and the observations of several social media networks seemed to support that assumption.

By the evening of the eighth day, world media networks were spinning a picture of Mexico being in a full-scale crisis and the analogy of a Mexican “Arab Spring” was being used by networks such as CNN, MSNBC, BBC and Sputnik.
At that same time, major business districts in Mexico City had been closed for three days and the number of people in and around the city began to fear the protest would spiral out of control. 
The President continued to be reluctant to use a higher level of force from the Mexican Military and by the morning of the 9^th day, the whole world was watching Mexico.

Others:

By the fourth day, IRGC intelligence briefings in Tehran informed their leadership that the events inside Mexico posed a growing threat to the United States and it was obvious the US government was becoming more and more concerned about what was taking place. 
Iranian cyber assets were tasked to leverage this event to the greatest extent possible.
 Iranian social media operations were assigned to paint a picture of a true Arab Spring event taking place in Mexico and to tie the blame for the event on the United States government to the greatest extent possible. 
A sanitized contact protocol process was implemented through several groups in Venezuela with the goal of making contact with the I am 132 movement leaders. 
By the 8^th day of the event, that contact had been confirmed and the flooding of social media with statements of how the US was just as responsible for the conditions in Mexico as the current Mexican government began to show up on US media networks. 
On day nine, CNN and MSNBC began to paint a picture of how the Trump Administration had failed to respond effectively to the conditions that were now obvious in Mexico and that his comments about closing the border had only made a desperate people even more desperate.
 On day nine, US intelligence networks confirmed the influence that was now taking place was not only from Iran, but from Venezuela and “others”. 
The US President was informed the violence in Mexico showed no signs of subsiding and there were growing indicators inside of SEDENA that senior leaders were becoming alarmed.
 A SEDENA senior officer, assigned as a liaison to NORTHCOM, had made the comment that many of his peers believed the situation could become much worse.

On the morning of the 10^th day, the largest gathering of the protest was scheduled to take place at 6pm local time in Mexico City. 
The protest was scheduled to be outside The Federal District Buildings.
 As soon as the Mexican government became aware of this event, it was decided to announce  no such event would be authorized and that anyone who showed up there would face a stern response. By 5pm, it was estimated over 200,000 protesters had arrived at the location. 
At apx. 5:15pm, several social media networks were reporting shots being fired into the crowd and numerous injuries were taken place. 
Most of the postings indicated the shootings were continuing and members of SEDENA were seen firing into the crowd of protestors.

The first report to the US President was based upon confirmed weapons fire at the protesters, but there was not indication as to who was firing into the crowd. 
SEDENA liaisons at NORTHCOM reported that no Mexican military unit had been given authorization to fire on civilians and it was unclear how the shooting had started. 
US intelligence had tracked three groups of apx twenty males who traveled into Mexico from Venezuela within 24hrs of this event. 
The violence continued until 8pm and by that time, reports of over 100 people being killed were flooding the networks.
 Pictures of civilians face down in the street outside the area near the federal building were shown globally by every media network as well as all social media outlets. 
The Mexican President addressed the people of Mexico at 9pm and assured them the government was not responsible for what had taken place, but the reporting pool that was in the room erupted into an uncontrolled clamor of questions that gave the appearance of a leader in full crisis mode. 
By 9pm, reports of shots being fired into the crowds in the cities of Monterrey and Juarez were being reported by all sources. 
At 11pm, the President of Mexico ordered the Mexican military to secure the area around the nation’s capital complex.

On the 11^th day of the crisis, the US President’s morning briefing was almost exclusively on the topic of events in Mexico. 
Initial reports indicated the number of dead and wounded in Mexico City was over 400 with an additional 300 from other locations throughout Mexico. 
Intelligence reports indicated that at least two of the teams that had been tracked from Venezuela were in  Juarez and Monterrey and it was extremely possible the shootings at those locations had been supported by those teams. 
The US President spoke with his Mexican counterpart within an hour of the briefing and it became clear the Mexican government was struggling to gain control of what was taking place. 
That afternoon, the media reported a rally of over 1 million people had formed in Mexico City and that they were calling for the immediate resignation of the President and the Secretary of National Defense. 
Global media coverage was now live and continuous. 
Analogies of the comparison to the Arab Spring were being repeated by every network covering the crisis. 
The protest in the city of Juarez was estimated at over 500,000 and it was rumored that almost every city worker had joined the event.
 US intelligence reports also indicated that city employees in Mexico City and several other key locations were joining the events at their locations.

Events slide out of control:

By nightfall of the 11^th day, the city of Juarez was reported to be without power. 
Indications were, the employees responsible for keeping the network running had joined the protest and a large fire had resulted in a cascading power failure. 
US Intelligence reported the fire that had started at two major power junctions seemed to be related as they took place within 10 minutes of each other and after two small explosions were witnessed at both locations. 
The US President authorized immediate intelligence air assets over the city of Juarez as well as the closure of all ports of entry into the city of El Paso.
 Reports of the closures reached the public within the first hour after the orders went into effect. 
The SEDENA liaison at NORTCOM reported the city of Juarez would come under curfew by order of the President at midnight local time. 
News of this curfew reached the media within the hour and the situation in Mexico was perceived as critical.  
At daybreak on the 12^th day, the analysis of the situation in Juarez indicated the city would be without power for up to two months and that was based on those who understood how to run the network returning to work.
 By noon that day, reports of looting inside the city were being reported by all networks.
 By 3pm that day, SEDENA units were seen moving into the city in large numbers. 
CNN then released a story of Mexican citizens who had been in the city of El Paso prior to the event attempting to locate family members inside Juarez.
 CNN reported that nearly 60 percent of the US families in El Paso had family members in Juarez and the issue of their safety became a topic on that network.
 An official request to set up a process to allow family members in Juarez into El Paso was denied by the US government. 
The media then began to question the issue of expatriates and US citizens inside Mexico and how they would be brought back to the US. 
This topic was quickly made into an issue of the Administration’s failure to properly deal with the crisis. 
Other Ports of Entry into the US had remained open, but it was becoming clear the crisis in Mexico was bringing into question the US government’s plan for dealing with what was taking place. 
By nightfall on the 12^th day, the protest in Mexico City was seen as completely out of control. 
The Mexican military had been ordered to implement a curfew in the city that would run from 9pm to 6am until further notice. 
Social media postings made it obvious the curfew was being ignored . 
At apx 11pm on the night of the 12^th day of the crisis, reports of numerous shots being fired in several locations in and around Mexico City were being reported by all networks. 
US intelligence indicated that most of the activity was not based on organized operations but most likely do to those looking to exploit the crisis. 
Looting had grown exponentially by the 12^th day and the ability of the government to stop such large dispersed events was impossible. 
On the evening of the 12^th day, the US President authorized air assets to be flown over critical areas in an attempt to gain as much intelligence on the crisis as possible. 
US citizens in Mexico had been leaving for the past five days and that pace was dramatically increased when the US department of State put out an advisory for all US citizens to depart a growing list of locations in Mexico. 
This DoS advisory was immediately picked up by the major networks and the intensity of the crisis was portrayed as being nearly out of control. 
 On the morning of the 13^th day, the airports In Mexico City and other locations were overwhelmed by the number of non-Mexican and Mexican citizens departing the country. 
Cruise ships had been advised to avoid their typical ports of call and the news of that event drove the perception of the crisis even further into panic.
 That same day, power was lost in most areas of Mexico City as well as several other locations in the country.
 It had become obvious the people who maintained these networks were not showing up for work and thus the impact was being seen across Mexico.
 Without power, sewer and water production was lost and the result was dramatic in Mexico City. 
The concept of filling in these critical positions with military members proved to be ineffective as they had no understanding of local networks.  
On the morning of the 14^th day of the crisis, the US government decided that all ports of entry to the US would be closed and all US citizens would be ordered out of Mexico. 
NORTHCOM was tasked with the lead support mission to insure all US ports of entry along the US border would be closed and prepared to support operations to validate any US citizen who might show up at those locations. 
The news of this operation overwhelmed the media networks. 
The primary discussion became Mexico was collapsing into a “Failed Nation State”. 
The past 13 days of the crisis had had a dramatic impact on the world markets, but the news of the US closing all Ports of Entry and assigning the US military to process US citizens back into the US had the greatest impact.
 Markets were ordered closed within an hour of this plan being announced, but not before breakers had to be implemented after a 3,000-point drop.
 Overall, the US stock market had fallen 20 percent since the beginning of the crisis.
 On the evening of the 14^th day, US intelligence indicated Mexico’s ten largest cities had no power and looting was taking place at an “extreme” level. 
The Mexican President informed the US President he was implementing Article 29 of the Mexican Constitution, Mexico’s version of Martial Law. 
At midnight of the 15^th day, that announcement was made to the media. 
The Mexican military was now ordered to restore order in any territory or city at any cost. 
For those who were not Mexican citizens and where still in Mexico, the level of panic was extremely visible. 
Media outlets began to show panic at all airports and vehicles lined up at the US Ports of Entry for miles. 
Without power in many regions, the ability to purchase gasoline led to those leaving by roadway to abandon their efforts. 
On the afternoon of the 15^th, The President of the US held a discussion with his Mexican counterpart on the probability of the US having to secure the safety of US citizens inside of Mexico. 
The Mexican President assured his US counterpart that action would not be necessary. 
He also stated he would be deeply opposed to any US military involvement on Mexican soil, to include the areas around the Ports of Entry.
The conversation ended with the Mexican President stating he would appeal to the UN for immediate support as he regained control of his country from what he stated was a temporary and deliberate crisis, supported by “others”.

On the evening of the 15^th day, the President’s now continuous situational reporting updates on the events in Mexico indicated that an estimated 2 million people were moving towards the US border and the percentage of US citizens inside this movement was unknown.
 Most of the cell phone communications between families in the US had been interrupted due to the loss of power in Mexico. 
By the morning of the 16^th day, the US was facing a Mass Migration crisis unlike anything it had encountered in its history.

THE NERO OF MEXICO. AMLO IS IN MORE TROUBLE THAN HE THINKS.

Well, it didn’t take long, but AMLO, who I will now refer to as The Mexican Nero, is finding himself in DEEP…..DEEP…trouble. A few days ago, I posted my opinions on the issue of having a plan incase Mexico turns into Syria or Albania. At the end, I made the prediction the actions of Mexico City would determine how soon the US would need to have this “plan” in place. Well, let me tell you why I think that time is much closer than I believed just a few short days ago.

Distractions:

            Historically, what does every government leader do when he or she believes they are in trouble? Yep, they look for a distraction. The greater the threat to their staying in power, the greater the distraction must become. When Nero became El Presidente of Mexico, he made a commitment not to go after the drug cartels, not a statement, a commitment. Why? Well, for one reason, the percentage of those inside the government he was going to be in charge of paid their bills with cartel money. He had to find a way to show the people he was going to “clean up” the Mexican government, but he had committed to leaving the cartels alone. That created a huge, almost insurmountable problem. How could he show the people he was different but not kick sand in the face of the organization that truly ran the country?

Daily Talk Show:

            The Mexican Nero is on TV, Radio, Podcast, Twitter, Facebook every day, but the event that sticks out the most , is the daily TV Press Briefings. Day after day, he tells the story of how he is cleaning up Mexico. He speaks of the level of corruption he will no longer tolerate. He names  Mexican agencies that are conducting graft at all levels and he usually ends with, “no more”. For the first month or so, this seemed to work, but then reality caught up with him. As he stood their talking about the inequities of jobs, education and living conditions, the reporters sitting in front of him began to ask a universal question, “ What about the violence”? When Nero decided to tell them, the violence was down and “stable”, he forgot the reporters had access to this aggravating item, the national crime stats. Here he was painting a picture of all the social injustices in Mexico and the people began to only ask one question, “ how are you going to stop the killings”?

Look over there!

            What has become his answer to the question he doesn’t want to address? Answer, the quickest form of distraction is to yell, “look over there”, and that is exactly what he has now attempted. If you see the spear coming at you, you need to place bodies in front of you!  All those corrupt Mexican agency heads, they are being placed in front of the public’s spear, but here comes the real problem. What happens when you run out of bodies to hide behind or worse, what happens when those being placed in front of the spear decide to fight back?

            Nero is quickly running out of allies inside a corrupt government. His stance seems to be to keep the “common / poor folks” on his side. Burn everything else down, but make it look like it’s not your fault. If you are sitting inside a Mexican agency and you see Nero proclaiming your office is corrupt, what are your options? How about you turn to the organization that pays you to let them operate in Mexico as they wish? How about you ask that organization to turn up the heat, a heat that only Nero can be held responsible for? Why is the murder rate already of 2018, a record year for Mexico? What level of internal conflict is taking place inside Mexico City?

Signs of even more trouble:

            Just yesterday, Nero gave yet another speech about the pending release of “ all “ political prisoners in Mexico. Just how does that address the out of control murder rate? Look, let me get to the point. Nero is not  looking for solutions to the murder rate. He is building his defensive forces around his administration. Making promises to outlying Senators about the pending release of all political prisoners is an attempt to do one thing, buy allegiance for a pending conflict. You can only toss so many Mexican departmental heads in jail. You can only fire so many agency heads. You can only put so many bodies in front of the spear, but in the end, the reality is going to arrive. Nero promised to leave the cartels alone, but he is using the people inside his government to distract the public from what the cartels are doing. Oh, by the way. When he identifies these corrupt officials, he is removing the very people the cartels are relying on. How do you think that is going to go over? Nero is closing himself off inside his fortress of Mexico City and he plans on having his Farmer / peasant Army protect him from the truth. Last note. Military leadership in Mexico. What is their opinion of what is taking place? Folks, I will now call him Nero for one reason. It appears this guy is fine with letting the rest of the nation burn as long as he thinks he won’t be blamed for it.

            Meanwhile, back in the US…………….well……………………….. I won’t go there just yet.

Picture. I saw this post on Twitter this morning and thought, that's perfect!  

 MEXICO’S STABILITY AND THE ISSUE OF A “BUFFER ZONE”.

            The situation in Venezuela reaches critical mass, thanks to the US’s enemies and the US’s poor track record in the region, and a massive wave of people begins to head North. Colombia closes its borders, already nearly complete, Brazil follows Columbia’s lead and a Human Mass Migration, a real “Mass” 300/ 500 thousand starts to move North. Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras Guatemala all open the doors at both ends with the intent of everyone just passing through…..Think Turkey and the march to Europe. Next stop Mexico. Does Mexico turn them around? If they can’t turn around three thousand, how do they turn three hundred thousand? Does Mexico simply let them in and provide for their new citizens? Have you ever read Mexican law on illegal immigration? Those same Southern and Northern doors that Central America utilized are put into effect by Mexico City. The next thing you know, the US border is looking at a real wave….. not just a Caravan”, but a title wave of people. Think it can’t happen? Why not ask the governments of Europe?  Think the enemies of the US are not pondering the continued utilization of a new and powerful weapon, the weapon of Mass Migration? Can that weapon lead to the destabilization of the US? Again, go ask the governments of Europe. Okay………………………………..here is the question. Then what?

Buffer Zones:

            What did Turkey implement to respond to what took place in Syria? Yes, they had the issue of the Kurds to deal with, but does anyone doubt the Turks did not decide to hold this mass movement of people, as much as possible inside the nation they were coming from? Did not the Turks play the game against the EU, the same EU that looked down their noses at the Ottomans, that led to these mass migration movements into the EU? A few million people in a very short period of time. Just how would the US deal with such an event? Could the US send them to the growing list of Sanctuary Cities? Well, we’ve seen how that proposition turned out. What does the US do with a real wave of people heading North? If that’s not hard enough to contemplate, try adding a completely destabilized Mexico!

            I will tell you what the operational response is to such events and it’s a time-tested concept utilized throughout the world. Buffer Zones. Buffer Zones are the desperate attempt by Nation States to limit the impact of traumatic events along their geographic borders. So, the question becomes, does the US implement a Buffer Zone on US soil or on Mexican land? The reality is, many of the private land owners along the US border with Mexico already feel like they don’t really own the land they live on. Don’t believe me? Get in your car and take a drive down and asked them. Here is my last question. Does the Mexican Government go along with this plan and if not, then what?  

Contingency Planning:

            I had a great conversation today with a guy named Daniel Horowitz. You know it’s good when I am walking in the rain out on my property and I don’t worry about getting soaked. We talked about a lot of things Mexico, but there is one I decided to come back inside and hone in on. Planning. When Y2K was going to take place, I was on the development team, a joint team to include the military, for the city of El Paso. The short story was, everyone was worried about the city of Juarez walking into El Paso all at once. Sound crazy? Well, it wasn’t at the time and it shouldn’t sound crazy now. The bottom line was, we had a “plan” It wasn’t a very good one, but we had a plan. That makes me wonder; What’s the “plan”? Mexico and a few others fall apart; what’s the plan? Now, some, the military, FEMA, DHS, they love to “plan”? I was part of that world for years. What’s the plan? Better yet, is there a plan that has the words, “Buffer Zone” in them? Think the topic has not come up before? I have one word for you. Pandemic.

            If you are one of those people, and I am one of them by the way, that doesn’t like the concept of camps in Buffer Zones for people who are scared and mean no real harm, then you better be asking, “what’s the plan”? Here is my advice to this concept of, “What’s the plan”? The US better have a plan to prevent this level of crisis from starting. If you wait until the title wave has formed, then you are going to give ground regardless of what your level of humanitarian compassion may be. The US needs to figure out a policy for the region that doesn’t allow our enemies to weaponize mass migration, because it’s a weapon they have already tested in the Middle East and they are convinced it works. Don’t believe me. One last time. Give Europe a call.

“CONFUSION” BETWEEN US AND MEXICAN TROOPS ON THE  BORDER? YA…RIGHT!  

            Well, the story goes, once again, there was “confusion” between US forces and Mexican SEDENA forces on the US border with Mexico in Texas. You see, there is this area that is nothing more than a thick brush and a small amount of water and as such, the  members of SEDENA were, “confused”. Let me take a moment here to toss the BS flag onto to field! Let me go over a few issues that made he reach for my BS flag.

1.     Calling the river, a small body of water with some brush during an event that took place during daylight. Well, whoever is trying to tone this story down, you have to do better than that.

2.     Does any Member of the Mexican military not understand the area they are working in?

3.     Do any of them not know a small river is the boundary between the two nations?

4.      Do any of the Mexican military members not recognize the uniform of the US military?

5.     Is there not a deconfliction Rep at NORTHCOM to make sure such events don’t take place?

Okay, I could go on and on, but here is my analysis of what took place and I will tell you, my thoughts are based on a, “Been there…..done that” environment on the Texas, Mexico Border.

Corruption at every level:

1.     Are there members of SEDENA who are corrupt? Yes.

2.     Are there units of SEDENA that are corrupt? Yes.

3.     Are there Unit Commanders who are corrupt? Yes.

4.     Are there senior leaders in SEDENA who are corrupt? Yes.

5.     Are there senior, political leaders in Mexico who are corrupt? Yes.

6.     Does this raise the possibility this was not just some “confused” event? Yes.

7.     Would NORTHCOM, the US Military Command for the US, do everything in its power to tone down and even make this event go away? Oh you bet they would….. Not the first time.

What Happened:

            “ The US service members reported they did not see any identifiable seals or symbols on the individual’s vehicles and couldn’t identify any patches or name tapes on the uniforms except for the Mexican flag.

1.     Mexican Special Ops working the border area in a “sanitized Ops? BS!

2.     Without deconfliction at NORTHCOM? BS!

3.      No vehicle markings, what unit’s motor pool did they come from?

Right about now, anyone who has ever worked an operational mission is reading this and saying, BS! Who isn’t saying BS? Why, the US government. Interesting.

Not my First Rodeo:

            I’ve talked about this before but let me go over it again so you get a better feeling where I’m coming from. Several years ago, I was part of a CODEL, Congressional Junket, that took place in West Texas. In that CODEL, civilian Law Enforcement members gave statements about an event with shots fired along the “river”, where what seemed to be a Mexican military unit appeared to be assisting a drug movement recover a load of drugs from a sunk vehicle in the river. You know….that little bitty river with brush all around it. Unit flashes were seen on the front of the SEDENA vehicles and a whip antenna was seen next to a person who looked to be giving orders over a radio. Well….when the dust settled….the answer became, it was a drug cartel dressed to look like SEDENA, to even include the proper vehicles and markings. Yes…..BS…..complete BS…not “Confusion”. But then, the whole event just went away. Does this story have some commonality to what took place on April 13^th of this year? Could This Sanitized team have been providing route security for a major drug movement? Let me ask you something. When you hear of a large surge along the border, do you ever stop to think that “surge” is preplanned? Is it designed to draw the attention of the US assets in the area in order to move a “load” across somewhere else? Just ask any civilian Law Enforcement or Border Patrol member who works the Texas / Mexico border and see how many stories you immediately get back.

Look. This was not “confusion” but, “confusion” is the easiest answer to the political leaders who are always trying to dance around the issue of the corruption in Mexico. Is the entire Mexican military corrupt? No. Is it nearly impossible to distinguish who is and who is not? Yes. I remember when a good friend from the DEA told me, “If the Op includes SEDENA, be careful”.

What took place on April 13^th? I think most of us who have worked that area know. Is it the first time? No. Will it be the last? No.

            SIDE NOTE:

                        US forces being armed with a side arm? Someone needs to be fired over that decision.  

RUSSIAN, US AND ISRAELI “COLLUSION” THEORY. 

So, the “rank and file” of the Syrian military was upset with the latest attack from Israel? So, some of the leadership feels the Russians and the US are supporting Israel’s actions in Syria? What was their first “clue”? That support has been taking place since day one of the Russian operations inside Syria.

Why Now?

            Why do these “rank and file” members speak to this issue now? Did fear keep them from making these statements, statements they’ve known all along were true?  Has the level of frustration just now become an issue? Was the location of the attack the new twist? Nope. It’s been hit before. Was it how it was struck; from Lebanese airspace? Nope. Look, Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syria have been under attack for several years now, so why did some of the Syrian military members finally decide to say something?

Is the Bromance coming to an end?

            I’ve addressed the issue of the so-called alliance between Iran, Russia and Syria on multiple occasions, but for the sake of clarity, let’s take a quick refresher course and I promise I won’t take the approach of some condescending Academic looking to sell their next book. Iran is one thing to Moscow….. a Pawn……. A Pawn that is a proxy fighter when called upon or manipulated into such actions. To the Mullahs, Syria is a Pawn….. a nation with a subservient government that bends to the will of Tehran and its vision of the future for the region. The idea that Moscow will determine the outcome of Syria is unacceptable to the Mullahs. These old men may be delusional, but they recognize the game being played by the Russians……. Act like they are a friend until the movement in time that friendship is no longer needed and then……. The Mullahs sleep with the fishes.

            Again, a few weeks ago, I commented on how important it was the Mullahs dragged Assad to Tehran and did so without Moscow’s permission or knowledge. Inside the halls of the Kremlin that action was not going to go unanswered. Yes, Moscow had been letting the IDF have it’s way in Syria, but pulling Assad in for “consultation” without telling the Tsar, well….that was a step too far. Did that lead to the Israelis attacking last week? Someone would have to prove to me it didn’t. Iran is pushing it’s agenda for Syria and that agenda is not designed in Moscow. How does this answer the question as to why the Syrian military finally spoke up? They were told to speak up! They were instructed to call out Moscow and place the blame on the Russians and good luck to the Syrian military leaders who didn’t follow those orders….orders coming from the Mullahs. Rock and a Hard Spot? Why do you think the statements were from “unnamed sources”? By the way, if the whole thing was made up and no Syrian military leader said anything about the Russians being in bed with the US and Israel, what an absolutely brilliant move on the part of the Intelligence Community!!!! Sadly, my bet is, the story is true. As much as I would like to believe the IC could pull off such an information operation, I am more convinced this event is another true indicator of the fragile Bromance between the Iranians and the Russians growing weaker by the day. Sure, the Russians will come out with some statement about the alliance is stronger than ever. They may even send a few more ineffective toys to the Syrian military, but in the end, one strategic fact cannot be denied. The future of Syria and the region is not a common vision between the Russians and the old men in Tehran. Pressure to expose that division is critical to those that don’t want to see ether side reach their vision quest. Side Note. If you think the US is Hell bent on keeping the Russians from determining the future of Syria, you may be in for a disappointment. Iran is target number one for the US and Israel is the proxy fighter for that task, and that fighter is undefeated in the region. By the way, when the Tsar decides it’s time for the Mullahs to go, well………… the fish will have company.

CHINA AND THE HEMISPHERE STATEMENT

Thanks to my Twitter friend, “W”, for showing me this article as it was one that truly gained my attention.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-02/china-sends-over-100-troops-venezuela-defiance-us-warnings

China joins into the game of sending troops plus supplies and surprisingly enough, the total number sent was eerily close to the Russian figure. Something new….seeing Chinese military members in Venezuela or the region for that matter? No. One only has to go looking around the Panama Canal and notice the inordinate number of 6ft plus, 2 percent body fat, Chinese “maintenance workers” to realize the game being played in Venezuela is not new to the region. So, what is happening here? Is it worthy of the IC putting the information on the President’s morning briefing and making the cutline? Yep. How do you know? Because of the way John Bolton reacted last week, that’s how you know. His statement about the “Hemisphere” was not lost to those who make decisions in Russia and China, but the grins that statement resulted in were also not lost on those in DC who monitor reactions. By the way. The US has it’s share of “Contract / Support Workers” near the Canal😊.

What does it mean?

            Is the concept of the US’s adversaries creating problems in Hampshire new? No. Are the Chinese and the Russians working hand in hand on the events in Venezuela? It appears so, at least for now. Is China doing this as a true combined operation with the Russians or is something else taking place as well? Has the US made it public it will work to limit China’s expansion? Yes. Could Chinese leadership see the constraints placed on Iranian and Venezuelan fuel as a byproduct of that attempted limitation plan? Yes. Could China see the pending military aid increases to Taiwan as a measure that needs to be countered? Yes. In the end, is Venezuela as important to China as Taiwan? No. So, is China willing to push this event to the point of being a true crisis? No. Is the US willing to compromise sales promises to Taiwan for the reduction of Chinese actions in the Hemisphere… in other words………will the US trade Taiwan for Venezuela? No………….not even close! Then what does China really think it will gain out of this stunt? China will get the fuel it needs with or without Iran and Venezuela. It simply has too much money for everyone to hold the line and besides, this is not just about fuel. It’s about regional authority……it’s about the future of the Chinese nation. Wait….what about the Russians? Well, to keep this short, Moscow has the same desire. If the West is going to continue to creep into the old territories controlled by the old Soviet Empire, then the counter move in the “Hemisphere” is the logical answer. Just another example of the new “Cold War” you might say? Well…………….maybe……………………..but the odds of someone screwing this version of the Cold War up is much higher than in the past. The Russians and the Chinese are not going to commit to World War III over the Hugo Wannabe, but they may sit back and watch Guaido be tossed into jail. If that happens, Venezuela falls into a full-scale crisis and you can bet the US mainstream media and the US Democratic party will blame The Donald for  anything that takes place afterword’s. Is that disruptive to the US? You bet it is. It’s almost as disruptive as the Human Waves being coordinated and sent to the US border. Yep. 120 troops here and 120 troops there is not much to fret about, but then again, that’s not the real issue anyway. I will end this with the same question I always ask when speaking of the future between the Dragon and the Bear. When you rest your head on your pillow at night in Moscow…………. who do you truly fear….the Dragon or the Eagle?