THE INCIDENT AT THE STRAIT’S OF KERCH. NOT WHAT, BUT WHY?

            As much as I really wanted to follow up on the US’s Southern border issues, I just couldn’t pull myself away from the stunt pulled by the Tsar a few days ago.Everyone has read or heard by now all about what happened, but has anyone followed up with why? The same old worn-out statements by Western media centers around the enduring tensions between Russia and Ukraine and that’s a great way to wrap up a story as they scurry back to find the next thing to attack The Donald over. Here is the problem with this pathetic level of journalism, it does matter. What took place is important. It was important enough to pull me off the topic I wanted to address. The fact tensions remain between Russia and Ukraine is not noteworthy. What needs to be addressed is once again the questions of why, and why now?  

The Story Line:         

            As anyone should have been able to predict, both sides jumped to the podium and announced the other was responsible. The Russians admitted, quickly I might add, the Sea of Azov was open to both Ukrainian and Russian traffic. At no point has Moscow claimed the area as their own. The Russian version of the event includes Ukrainian threats to the newly opened bridge spanning the area as well as a history of declaring “temporary” closures of the waters for “events”. Sounds innocent enough, so much so it seems big players in the EU have already bought off on the whole event being a misunderstanding at some level. Yep, the land of Teletubby Leaders. As for Mr. Putin, it’s all about Mr. Poroshenko being behind in the polls.

            The Ukrainian stances centers around the whole event being a blatant provocation by Moscow.  The jump to Martial Law for the outlying areas of Ukraine startled just about everyone, even Moscow, but if anyone knows where the Russian’s “Little Green Men” are, it’s Kiev. Did Mr. Poroshenko and his Generals believe that was a prelude to some larger event? It’s very possible. Could he have ordered the three ships to run the blockade at the bridge? That’s possible as well, but would that make sense?

Side Note:

            If you watch the video of the ramming of the Ukrainian tug, you should be amazed by the language of the Russian Captain conducting the ramming. When I watched that clip for the first time, I thought to myself, “Wow….is this guy drunk”? Show me one clip of a US or British Skipper conducting himself in such a manner? Talk about unprofessional. That clip alone does a great deal of damage to the reputation of the Russian Navy and military. Better yet? How did the Ukrainians get it? Posted on social media by whom? A Russian Saylor? I bet that poor guy is on his way to the Salt Mines by now.

Who Stands to Gain from the Event?

            Both sides have their version. Both sides blame the other. At what point does that issue become irrelevant? When you have military leadership in the area that act like drunken idiots, how close can we be to a real crisis? Two of the Ukrainian ships were capable of defending themselves, but they did not. That is a sign of just how critical their Captains knew the situation had become. To allow two war ships to be detained, that’s a serious sign of control as well. Everyone knows, or should know, those two ships and their communications gear will be taken apart by the Russians. That’s a real prize for Moscow and you can bet that is where a great deal of the anger in the US is coming from. Did Mr. Poroshenko realize his ships would be seized?  I doubt it. Would it be difficult for Moscow to create a situation where Mr. Poroshenko might overreact? Easy. Are the Russian’s looking for a war with Ukraine? No. Putin’s statement about the whole event blowing over is a sign it’s up to the Ukraine to not let things get out of hand. To Mr. Poroshenko, it was and is a huge embarrassment and one he can’t let get out of control.

            The Russians push Poroshenko’s buttons, just as they planned to do. Are they prepared for his unpredictable reactions? What they are prepared for is for the US and the EU to keep Ukraine from doing something stupid. Having said that, here is what worries me. Of the military leadership involved in this incident, the most unprofessional ones were the Russians. If a Russian warship was rammed in this manner, how would that foulmouthed fool react? Modern day weapons on these ships don’t miss. Once one flies, the shooting is on. If there is a lesson to be learned here, that is the one we all better pay attention to. Historians are the ones who figure out who fired the first shot. The rest of us live in the aftermath. Dear Mr. Putin. Get a Captain with a cooler head than this guy.

If the audio was a plant, then you better convince the world of that and do so soon. This guy made you look like a bunch of drunk Pirates and you can bet his crew ether loves him or thinks he’s an idiot.

ISRAEL BROKEN OODA LOOP

            I Took off the past few weeks for two reasons. One was the annual Christmas Light project and believe me, it’s a project. The second reason was, I wanted to see a few issues play themselves out a little more before I found a point to comment on what was going on. Then….all Hell broke loose on another topic; Israel and its sudden collapse of any understandable plan for dealing with Gaza attacks. Already, too many people have attempted to make this topic far more complex than it needs to be. Yes, the situation has changed, but for good reason. Someone inside the Israeli government forgot the Golden Rule…… the one I love to talk about……you know….. The Law of Unintended Consequences.

Tit for Tat:  

            Tit for Tat actions. That’s what it’s been called for months now. Gaza fires rockets into Israel, Israel bombs empty buildings and Egypt runs in and “brokers” a cease fire. All the while, the US continues to self-destruct with its own internal, political madness as the Russians continue to manipulate the Middle East. The Sultan rants about the Prince and the murder of a spy who had once again jumped sides, as the sultan dreams of being the leader of the Muslim world. The Chinese press in the South China Seas and further, and the EU really begins to realize the exit of England is going to take place. Something was bound to break, and it did. Oh….did I mention the Mullahs in Tehran have found a way to keep their money? Not take care of the people of Iran, but a way to keep they’re and the IRGC’s fortunes.

            As all of this has been going on, the almost weekly, Tit for Tat events between the IDF and the forces in Gaza, not just Hamas, notice the statement by Iran’s military chief of staff, have continued with each one being a perception victory for the forces attacking Israel. At first the Friday so called protest proved to be more than efficient in painting Israel in a negative light. Kids flying kites vs the IDF. Not a true statement, but an information campaign that Israel struggled to deal with. Story upon story of how the people of Gaza are suffering under the near total blockade also took their toll. The tension between Hamas and Abbas was covered by many in the Arab press, but not in the West. In the West, it continued to be about the suffering of the poor people in Gaza or the unjust actions of Saudi in Yemen, or the murder of an all around “good guy”. Yep, try as Israel might, the ability to paint the picture in a positive light was nearly impossible. A far more complex process was taking place in the region. A process that was manipulated from far away, yet the Tit for Tat rocket attacks continued. The OODA Loop….look it up if you don’t know what it means, of Israel was broken and they knew it. By the time the Israeli government could meet to debate what course of action should be taken, the rockets had stopped. Hit and Run…..leading to Tit for Tat. Victory for the aggressors each time with tension inside the government of Israel growing by the day.

The Raid:

            What was the purpose of the raid that failed? How was Israel attempting to regain their OODA Loop? Was the raid into Gaza based on taking out some no name commander inside Hamas? Had that been the practice in the past, or was it a drone strike from five miles away? Then, the raid goes bad and the team had to shoot their way out. Whose idea was it? The leadership inside the IDF? Was it Lt. Gen Eisenkot or Liebermans? Was it sanctioned by Netanyahu? Did the botched event set into motion a event that had been planned? Had the events of the weekly border protest and tit for tat attacks been designed to create a fracture inside the Israeli government? If so, then it seems to have worked and worked beyond the expectations of the Master Planner. The government is now in full crisis mode and the IDF seems to have divisions inside of it for all the world to see.           Israel became desperate to find a proactive approach to what was taking place and somehow a mission was launched that led to an event that gave the enemy inside Gaza the perfect excuse to once again prove the IDF/ Israeli OODA Loop was broken. The huge heavyweight Champion simply can not deal with the speed of the much smaller opponent. That is the perception Israel now faces. If Israel cannot find a way to deal with Gaza, how in the world can they deal with Hezbollah or Iran? Yes. That is exactly where the Master Planner intended this series of events to end up. How was Moscow going to deal with Israel openly flying into Syrian airspace with the coveted S300s in Syrian hands? How could they prevent a much larger event from taking place? One answer…… Destabilize the government of Israel before  they decide to take that giant step back into Syria. Sound silly? Okay…then you tell me what is going on!   Here is my last comment on this topic. As much as any organization prides itself on planning, everyone….everyone…needs to worry about the Golden Rule….even the Master Planner.