ACAPULCO AND THE SNAPSHOT OF WHERE THINGS CONTINUE TO HEAD.

            Yesterday, I made the point the US needed to walk away from Europe and begin to repair its badly broken relationship with Central and South America. So, today, I need to start practicing what I preach. Towards the end of my career, I had the privilege of working with some of the finest professionals I’ve ever shared a mission with. They were both Civilian, Federal and locals. The mission was overwhelming, but extremely important. Our task was to find ways to make the border of Texas and Mexico safer. My teams position was one based on support to the State of Texas and I can say it was my dream task as I ended by 32yrs of service with Uncle Sam. I’ve written about Mexico in the past and I’ve even started a separate blog site, before I realized it was just easier to keep up with one instead of two, but times continue to change and that means Mexico continues to change as well.

Same Old….Same Old:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45648199

When I read about the events in Acapulco yesterday, It didn’t stand out to me as anything new. I had watched and talked about civilian police departments being taken over by the Mexican Military for years, so nothing new right? Wrong. This process of relieving of a whole department had taken place before throughout Mexico, but typically in the smaller towns of more remote regions. This was Acapulco, this is a major city and that made this story catch my eye. Now, I could have picked up the phone and asked a few old friends what was going on, but I already knew the answer. It’s the same answer that has been taking place all over Mexico for decades. Poorly trained, poorly paid and a broken legal system. That is what the people of Mexico must rely on when it comes to civilian law enforcement. I know I’ve said this before, but it needs to be repeated. Depending what country you live in as your read this, can you imagine having your regular military placed into the streets as your day to day law enforcement? Some may not find that too unusual, but most would find that more than alarming. Yet, you can bet, tons of people, tourist, are planning trips to Acapulco as I write this. Imagine coming off the aircraft or cruise ship and seeing the US Marines or US Army patrolling the streets of San Francisco or New York. Here is the sad part. To the people of Mexico, it’s the new normal. Most don’t even bat an eye at the site of armored vehicles instead of police squad cars. In the end, the most dangerous answer or response the US can have to the story of Acapulco is, “ So what? It’s Mexico and it’s always like that”.

Times are Changing:

            When I was a Commander, the one thing I couldn’t stand was complacency. If we were looking at a bad situation and someone said, “so what. It’s always like that”, well, they usually didn’t, at least not where I could hear them. When we look at Mexico and other troubled nations to the South of the US, we typically forget one key issue, especially at the US political level. “Others” are looking as well. Does anyone think it’s a coincidence a Chinese Medical Ship made a Port of Call in Venezuela? What government in Central or South America hates the US the most, at least at this moment in time? Are the Chinese there to make the people of Venezuela feel better? If you just answered yes, then stop here and go read the sports page.

            Okay, it’s broken record time, but let’s go over this again. The concept of the US’s enemies wishing to leverage weakness in the US’s “backyard” is nothing new. What is new is the way that “leverage” can now take place. Social Media is now a very powerful weapon. Blending Fake News with Real News has become a great way to distort reality. But, when you add all the ways the enemies of the US can now influence events in Central and South America and mix it with good old fashion US complacency, you have a recipe for disaster. The end-bound President of Mexico is going to be looking for new friends, friends with money. Who would that be? Venezuela’s government will sell their Socialist Soul for economic support and if that support came from a nation that upset the US, then they will double down on their desire for help.  

            The people of Mexico have no desire to see their military patrolling the streets of any town or city. They want what everyone else in this world wants. They want the same thing the folks in Venezuela want. If it continues to be obvious the US’s stance is “ so what, It’s always been like that”, then someday soon, perhaps too soon, the topic will be how China is now running a National Police Academy for Mexico, or, how China is conducting joint military exercises with Venezuela. If you don’t think that is possible, then pick up that sport’s page and keep reading.

DEAR UNITED STATES. IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO EUROPE.

I think I may have made this point a few years ago and I can’t remember what the circumstance was, but that was then, and this is now and this article sent me over the edge. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45634448

For far too long, the US has carried Europe’s water based upon the ever decreasing heritage with the US. Twice Europe has driven itself into a war that consumed the world and after the 2^nd event, the US stood as the only barrier between true Communism and the Socialist playground Europe became. For decades nobody in Europe really had to worry about The Big Red Machine grinding its way into their towns because the US stood in their way. For those same decades, Europe was able to build their pie in the sky social programs because they lived under the wings of the US Eagle. But then, as is the case with any spoiled child, those very countries living under the Eagle’s wings, began to despise the protection they were given. Now, after two generations of idealistic dreamers, it seems Europe is so resentful of the US, little girls like Federica Mogherini and the dream land of this thing called the EU has decided to openly stand against the US. I know this is not the first time, but as I have said before, that was then and this is now. The “We hate Trump” crowd seems to believe that sending money to a government that hangs people from construction cranes in public squares is the best way to appease them. Perhaps Ms. Mogherini should go read European history a little closer and look up the chapter about a British political leader by the name of Chamberlain.

            I fully realize the true dreams of Europe is to have Donald Trump removed from office and have someone living off of George Soros’ funds to move in, but parts of Europe, growing parts I might add, are beginning to see what their real future is. European Leaders can claim they are not anti-Semite, also claim the position of appeasement towards Iran is not as dangerous os standing up to them. Sound familiar? Mr. Chamberlain and others in Europe tried the same approach. So, Ms. Mogherini somehow believe sitting with the puppet Zarif is the best course of action for the EU. So be it. Let it be a course of action that Europe must live with and let it be a course of action as the US walks away, but ah yes, she is not planning on that happening. What she and those that think like her are planning on is the fall of Donald Trump. At best Europe hopes they have to put up with him for only two more years, and then a likeminded, Progressive, Europe envying person will walk into the White House and it’s Teletubby time. I’m confident Ms. Mogherini wouldn’t mind if someone walked into the room and told her the US was pulling out of NATO. That maybe the one issue she and I would agree on.   

Time for a cool change:

            Okay, here comes another bolt of reality, but this time it’s for the US. What landmass is the US connected to? What is the demographic future of the US? It’s time for the US to look South and North and not East. Let the land of Teletubby leaders find their new reality, but this time, when the fire alarm sounds, dont answer. It’s time to shore up the relationship the US has been screwing up for well over a hundred years. It’s time to bond with the Americas and leave Europe to find it’s own future, no matter how ugly it gets, no matter how many screams come from the land that once the US felt bound to defend.

            Europe is going to face a new reality, a reality that is already inside it’s bloodstream; Radical Islam and the new Count Dracula who will agree to save them, but only at a price. The Teletubby Team led by Ms Mogherini can take a knee to religious fanatics or they can take a knee to the Tsar, but ether way, the Eagle’s Wings should no longer provide them cover. It’s time for the US to look Central and South America in the eye and say, “we are sorry”, but we will work to make things right now”.   It will take time and it may not work, but it’s the right thing to do and it can’t start too soon. The only danger to this theory is the US itself. The rot that now exist inside the US government is unlike any point in the past. One party has done everything they can to create its own version of Teletubbies, but now, those same little adorable transgenders, whatever they are, are growing violent. If you are not with them, then they chase you out of restaurants. They follow you to work and they threaten your families. They do this all in the name of stopping “Fascism, and they do so by using the Fascist playbook.  You see, it’s okay to be violent as long as you are being violent because the other side is accused of being violent. Yes, the US has a disease and it could very well be fatal. The Teletubbies in the US have been genetically altered into a species that is willing to burn down the town. Perhaps Central and South America and even Canada should go ahead and close the doors now. I’m not sure the US’s ask for forgiveness is going to be accepted in the next 50 yrs and by that time, I’m not sure what the US will look like. Maybe the best bet for Central and South America is to learn how to speak Mandarin? As for the US. It’s hard to defend your allies when your own house is on fire.

Last comment. Look at the face of Zarif in the picture from the attached article and you tell me if that is not the look of a man who thinks he has an idiot sitting next to him? Europe Appeases Iran, Russia blocks Israel from striking Iranian assets in Syria and folks….you have the makings of a regional war.

S-300 TO SYRIA………………………….NOW WHAT?

Okay. The Russians and the Israelis had their meeting over how the IL20 was lost. At the end of the day, as I stated last week, it just gets harder and harder for the Russians to find a happy place with their involvement in Syria. Most of us gave the Russian approach two options. 1. Find a ‘off-ramp’ after a great deal of harsh words towards Israel. 2. Create or leverage another event to take the world’s eye of the event. I say the world’s eye, because I’m not sure the people back in Russia will be so easily distracted. The question becomes, what course of action did the Russians take? Like anything that comes from Moscow, its seems the answer is a hybrid of both options. The announcement of the S-300s sent off alarm bells in most Simi-informed communities and that news came on the heels of the most successful Terrorist attack in Iran in years. Are the two events related? Well, that depends on how complicated you believe Moscow can be. Is Russia capable of leveraging the two events to strengthen their position? Yes. If you can’t see how the attack in Iran can be folded into the larger picture of Moscow’s response to the downing of the IL20, then I’ll paint you a picture, but it may be one of those that you look at for hours and still not see the shape. Anyway, let me give this a shot.

Proxys:

            What is Iran to Russia? A tool, a proxy in the much larger struggle with the West. Why was Iran truly left out of the real deal making with Turkey over Idlib? Yep. Because they are nothing more than a proxy. Why have Iranian assets in Syria been allowed to be repeatedly targeted by Israel? Yep. Proxy. Why were the deals with Israel and the US over the status of Iranian forces in Southern Syrian struck without Tehran’s reps at the table? Yep. What needed to happen soon after the downing of the Russian aircraft to take the tension off the event? Yep……proxy. What is the major topic of the US and the UN meeting this week? Yep, the proxy. What is the most dangerous scenario for the entire region? Yep, a war with the proxy and Israel. Here’s an interesting side note. Did anyone here a statement about the attack in Iran being the work of the Zionist? Interesting! Where was the “ we shall destroy them” speeches from Tehran? Not a word about the actions of the “Jews”. Okay, back to the point. What good would it do Moscow to have a major attack take place in Iran? It could get the proxy leadership distracted while a much larger decision is being made. It could also inflame the proxy to the point that they do something stupid as their Master looks on. Yank the chain on one of your rabid dogs and get everyone looking at them as you change your plans somewhere else. Changing plans? If that is what is taking place in Syria, and I go back to my stuck in the mud theory, then that new change may be more dangerous than we think. By the way, could the Russians manipulate an attack in Iran? Piece of cake.

A New Course:

            S-300 into Syrian military hands? Well, maybe in the press release, but does anyone really think the fire control authority will rest outside the Russians? You can bet the IDF knows who will have launch authority. The statement is, “two weeks”. The new systems will be operational in two weeks and “new” electronic jamming operations will be put in place as well. What’s the message here and who is the message for? The downing event was a huge blow to the Moscow’s status in the world, an event worse than the Turkish incident. Just how much has this event changed the course for Moscow? Is Russia now truly prepared to keep Israel from striking Iranian assets in Syria? Is that the real change here? If that is true, and I’m not convinced it is, then the road to a regional war just became much shorter. If Israel can no longer control the flow of assets being moved from Iran into Hezbollah’s hands, then they have two courses of action; take out the supplier at the source or take out the receiving body. Before Moscow made the decision to deny Israel strikes into Syria, these two courses of action were reviewed, that, I can guarantee you. If it’s no longer about Iran’s humiliation of repeatedly being targeted by the IDF without any repercussions, and it is truly an event where the Russians have reached a loggerhead with Israel, then just how embolden will the Iranians become? If there is anything the Iranians need right now, it’s the ability to look as if they are in control of their own fate, besides, every once and a while, you must give your proxy a bone.

            This week is all about Iran and The Donald’s speech at the UN, at least that’s the way the region sees it. To the US, it’s all about a High School party 35 yrs ago. To Moscow, it’s about a major change of course in the Middle East. It’s about a drastic change of course with Israel. Is that where Russia is heading? The meeting between the two seemed to end with the Russians demanding the downing of the IL 20 was exclusively Israel’s fault? Do they really believe that? If they do, then the close airspace issue is for real. If they do, then Iran is free to move whatever they want, or at least that is what Tehran may believe. Tehran may believe they have top cover for extracting revenge for the attack on their parade, they love parades. If all of this madness is somehow rationalized inside Moscow, then a critical error has been made and it would be one I find it hard to believe the Russians would make. Resolve! Israel’s resolve to survive as a nation is at stake here. The risk of actually fighting it’s way through Russian controlled networks will be contemplated against the alternative; taking out the supplier or the receiving body. By the way, there is a huge risk on the Russian side that you can bet they have thought about. If the IDF is forced to neutralize Russia’s so called top of the line networks in Syria, then how do you sell them to the rest of the world? Declare the airspace closed and then let assets you are protecting get hit, and good luck selling those systems. Perhaps that’s why the announcement was for S300, and not S400s. The Russians are about to put the Iranians in a very dangerous position. Does Israel attack Russian manned networks, please don’t tell me Syrians will run the S300s, or do they attack Hezbollah? An Israeli conflict with Hezbollah? A gift the unstable government in Tehran would welcome. In their eyes, it’s always been, “Jews killing Arabs” as the Persians look on. Okay. Here is my last bet. If Russia gives this equipment to Syria and states Syria has control, then the IDF will strike Syrian military assets and wait to see what direction the air transport go home in with the body bags. By the way. Be careful what “expert” you listen to when they say the IDF could not have used the Russian UL20 as “Cover”. Their minds are stuck in old school…back in the day when the IDF would hide their radar signature behind another aircrafts. That is not what is being talked about here. The issue is, for the Russians, the Israelis flew close enough to the IL20 that the Syrian systems were afraid to shoot. That is the Russian version of the event and that is what has them willing to up the stakes now.

THE DOWNING OF THE IL-20. NO EXIT PLAN NEEDED.

            From day one, just about everyone who knows the region had the same comment over the Russian deployment into Syria. It’s the same comment most major nations hear when they walk into a failed country in the middle of a Civil War. “If you go in, how are you going to get out”? Exit plan? What is the “Exit plan”? I’ve worked on these “plans” before and trust me when I tell you, the War Fighters push away from the table and simply say, “the political objectives are not designed nor determined here”. Exit Plans also have a fatal flaw. The Enemy or in most cases with a Civil War, Enemies, gets a vote!

 It’s easy to go into a area with superior firepower and training and defeat a rag-tag Simi- military force, forces, but it’s much more difficult to design a plan that leads to the lights coming back on, water running again, schools reopening and people walking about freely and therein lies the problem with Syria, well…….Syria…Iraq…..Afghanistan…..Yemen…..Libya and so on and so on!  But, and this is a huge “but”, that difficulty of having an Exit Plan only applies to nations that care if they even have such a plan. The Russians left Afghanistan when it was clear they had no capability of controlling the nation. It wasn’t about sticking around until Afghanistan was rebuilt. It was worse than that. For the Russians Afghanistan was a crushing military defeat. The tactic that had allowed them to win countless wars, had been used to defeat the very nation that perfected utilizing one’s terrain to drain the enemy. The Soviet Union entered Afghanistan with a military designed to fight and win World War III. It was not designed nor trained to fight a sustained, guerrilla war. Simply put, The Soviets got into Afghanistan, but they had no real way out. By the way. How long has the US been there now? Yes, modern militaries can be placed inside a conflict, but can the political leadership find a way out?

So, that brings me back to the topic of Russia and Syria. From day one, I’ve said this time and time again, Syria to Russia / Putin / is not about it’s Civil War. Syria is about Eastern Europe and NATO. Let The Donald call Putin and say, “lets talk about NATO in Eastern Europe and then you can tell me about your plans for the Middle East”, and the minute the phone hangs up, everything about the region just changed. Tell me the reason Moscow has been courting Turkey has nothing to do with the weakening or collapse of NATO and I will sell you some Swampland In Arizona. Yes, the port there is important, but the word should be, was. That port was important in the Cold War, but warfare has changed and the requirements for that new warfare have changed as well. Moscow has not invested the time and money into Syria for the sake of one port. If you say the reason is oil and gas, then you get half credit. Yes, those are vital issues to the Russians, but It’s not the reason they have to eat losing hundreds of “Little Green Men” and now the IL20. Russia is there to apply pressure and a great deal of pressure. It’s the reason they support Iran as well. Cut a deal with Putin over NATO and the Mullahs will hang from the cranes in the public squares within weeks. By the way, if you don’t think Moscow doesn’t have it’s hooks into the IRGC, then you really….really…don’t understand how they operate or what Putin’s job use to be.

Okay, here comes the part I’ve been leading up to. Many nations, Western ones, worry about “exit plans”. Moscow has no “exit” plan for Syria or Iraq or Iran. If they all need to be tossed on the trading table for the sake of Eastern Europe’s “Westernization”, then so be it. All Moscow will ask for is the ability to have a vote on the sale of oil and gas from the region. Let them have the ability to manipulate the selling price of fuels and they leave the area like they did Afghanistan, without a “plan”.  Schools, water, power, streets….. someone else can worry about those details. Russia is not going to spend Billions on an area it no longer needs to control. By the way, they are not the only ones that think that way. Wait until you see the Dragon in a real conflict. They will reset the bar.

The Russians have lost citizens and equipment in the Syrian Civil War. They have deployed systems only to have them poorly managed, so poorly that it cost them their own military member’s lives. Yes, the Syrian military is a 21^st Century version of Egypt and the Soviet Union. They might blame Israel for the event of the IL20, but that’s for face saving purposes, and did you notice how quickly the allegations against the French disappeared? The game here is not about Syria. The game is about NATO. If the West / US / continues to press the integration of NATO forces into Eastern Europe, then the Russians will continue to allow the Syrian Civil War to fester. They will continue to allow Iran to supply Hezbollah. They will wait to see just how long before the IDF strikes Iranian assets enough times in Syria to make Iran over react. They will wait until the US’s actions to deny Iranian movement through Iraq into Syria reaches a point that a serious escalation takes place. Yep. Moscow is patient. At some point, and it could be soon……very soon, the events in the region will become very dangerous to more than just the people of Syria, Iran and Iraq. When that time comes, that phone call I told you about may come from Putin and not The Donald! As for what the area looks like after words. I can hear Putin now. “Exit Plan????? We don’t need no stinking  exit plan”!!!!

ARTICLE V AND THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES.

Just how stable is the US? Is the concept of the US falling apart, like the Soviet Union, really that unbelievable? Is the division inside the US really that “healthy” for the nation? Just how wide can the division become before the word “Healthy” becomes the word, “Dangerous”? Is the US already there, and if so, how does anyone really make the assessment? Finally, if the word “dangerous” is reality, what was the true cause of the crisis and how can it be stopped? I think my opinion is one that is shared by more people in the US than anyone may think, so, here it goes.

The Political “System”:

            Power. What is the ultimate goal of any form of governance? Power! To right the wrongs or create the future as one party or individual sees it, but the bottom line of that drive is power. The second goal is to keep that power. A concept that has not changed in thousands of years. Get in power and stay in power. Stay in power and keep those who may change that reality from gaining power. So, get there and then do whatever it takes to stay there and if anyone above you appears to gain more power than you and your group, then take measures to make sure their power is neutralized and or limited, thus the US 22^nd Amendment to the US Constitution.

Decades:

            Yes, I know the argument here, usually by those who are in power, is going to be, “well, the people can just vote them out if they want to”. Really? Why didn’t that argument hold true before the 22^nd Amendment was passed? Secondly, have you ever heard of a “safe” district” or state? If you want to see the apex of lust for power, just look at the lengths of terms inside the US Congress and even the Senate. Some Congress-people…can’t say men…that’s not being gender neutral….. have been in “power” for decades! Some spend less money on reelection cost than they do their pets. Look, I could go on and on, but I know everyone gets my point. The US political system has changed. It has become disconnected with the “people”. One party has a percentage of the population dependent upon the entitlements from DC and the other is controlled by those who need the rest of the budget spent on their corporate needs. Yes, my opinion is the US is dangerously close to the breaking point and I am convinced there is only one surgery that can save the patient.

Article V / State Convention:

            Yes, the federal government has the authority to call for the convention and time and time again, I hear the statement, “yes…..but they would never do it, especially if the topic is Term Limits”.  Look, we have passed the point of being a stable nation based upon our “balanced” populace. That theory of security from crisis no longer applies. Just imagine if 2/3^rd of the States called for a Article V Convention and the federal government said, “no”. If you think the US cannot quickly slide into a true crisis at that point, then you will be caught up in the group that is totally unprepared.

            The Founding Fathers, the ones that have been under attack by one party in the US for over two decades now, feared exactly what the US has turned into, a nation run by professional politicians. People who see being in power as a lifelong journey and one they can benefit from to the maximum extent possible. Look. I’m not going to argue the pros and cons of the US having a state driven convention. That’s been going on for several years now, but the topic has been a balanced budget, and not term limits. Let me give you my two cents worth on what really needs to happen, and I’ll even give you a shell of what the articles should state.

Limits: 

            Any federally elected official gets two, four-year terms for a total of eight years. Total! Sound familiar?

Retirement:   

            No elected official is entitled to any level of federal “retirement’ period.  If they put their salary in a investment fund, so be it.

Medical Insurance:

            Every elected official is provided the same healthcare as any other federal employee. Please don’t feed me that BS they have that now. Do better research than that before you speak.

Lobbyist:

            No elected official can ever return to DC as a lobbyist or working indirectly for a lobbying firm. After the possible eight years, any contact they have with anyone in the government or lobbying the government is a matter of public records, posted annually and all of this under penalty of law.

Time:

            All elected officials will spend no less than ten months of each year in office inside the territory they were elected by. This is the 21^st century, living in DC and visiting the people who sent them there is no longer acceptable. They are accountable to the people in their districts and no one else.

Quarters and Staff:

            ALL elected officials will be provided living quarters to include room for their families. Their staff will be provided based upon their knowledge of the legislative process. If it’s good enough for the members the US military, then it’s good enough for the elected officials.

Now, I could go on and on about this whole topic of an Article V convention, but I will leave you with this last warning. As the US sits and bickers at a level of exposure unlike at any other point it time, as the rest of the world, especially our enemies, watches the soap opera taking place in DC, are they saying to themselves, “ is now the time? Can this nation we have feared for so long truly stand tall in a real crisis? Are they a house of cards about to fall and can we make it happen?  If you don’t believe my last statement, then go back to watching Dancing with the Stars or the NFL, but don’t blame anyone but the person you see in the mirror if it all goes bad.

By the way, enact some version of the articles I’ve posted above and let’s see what kind of people run for office. Let’s see who goes to DC because they love their nation and let’s see who panics at the very rumor of a convention for term limits.

THE IRANIAN WOLF AND THE EUROPEAN SHEEP.

            I listen to a POD cast today on the topic of Iran’s continuing desires to terrorize Europe.  Most recently, even an Iranian diplomat, innocent according to Tehran, was arrested for being part of a bombing plot in Paris. Now, the Mullahs don’t have a lot going for them lately, so why would they want to bite the hand that pets them? Yes…pets them. Europe, for now, is a bastion of Progressive, Liberal, Passivist governments who on occasions gets upset, at least for a few days or weeks, like France and the issue of chemical weapons from Assad, but in the end, reverts to it’s old ways of appeasement. It’s this appeasement attitude the EU is taking towards Tehran today as I write this. Believing there is some avenue to fix the Mullahs’ nuclear weapons deal is nothing short of a hallucination. Yes. The EU longs to just sit down and talk to the Mullahs and find a path to happy land. Guess what. The Mullahs have only one path they choose to follow and that is the path of fear, the path of violence and forced obedience.

So Why?

            So why would the old men in Tehran want to execute a bombing in Paris? Well, the normal answer would be, because they are convinced they can get away with it. All they would have to say is, “it wasn’t us, but let’s sit down and talk about why these things happen and perhaps we can all make a better future”. Yes. Nice passive words spoken to the ears of people who love to hear passive talk. Why the next thing you know, the bombing would have been blamed on ISIS or even Israel. Okay, that is a “normal” explanation. Let me give you one that I find more than convincing.  What are the old men in Tehran looking for? The EU’s commitment to the Mullah’s nuclear program deal, that’s what. Does it look like they are going to get their way? Well, not to the level they want. So, what do they do? What does an aggressive, ruthless person or government do when they need to get a passive body to give in and go along with them? Yes. You scare them to death. One bombing here and perhaps another bombing there and the next thing you know, over half of the liberal political politicians in Europe are saying the best way to stop the violence is to “talk” to Tehran. It’s the liberal mindset. It’s in their DNA. Who knows this better than the aggressive governments out to manipulate the EU? Who is also out to reshape the thinking of the EU? Who wants the expansion of NATO to stop and even retreat? Yep. The Puppet Masters of Tehran, Moscow. The mass migration wave that struck Europe was weaponized by Moscow with the help of their new-found Friend, The Sultan of Turkey. Create a larger crisis in Syria and let the flow of people scare the nations in the EU they were losing their nations to refugees and the next thing you know, the governments of several of those nations are turning, what the liberals call, “radical conservative”. A title the rest of Europe fears more than the Mullahs. Yep. A Europe in crisis has been the plan for several years and that plan could have easily called for the bombing of a few Iranian Resistant members in Paris. So you see, both the Mullahs and the Russians know the game that must be played to get Europe to jump. Why, even if France joins in on a strike over chemicals used in Idlib, it will be short-lived as the passivist will swarm to the streets demanding France stop killing people in Syria. So yes. The old men in Tehran plotted to bomb in Paris and other locations. Why not? What is Europe going to do about it? They know the message will be clear. “Let’s sit down and talk about it”. The Mullahs have one message for Europe. “ Plata O Plomo”.

SEPTEMBER 11^TH 2001……THAT DAY. ( My story).

            I’ve posted this on FB for several years now, given my friends who lived this journey with me. It was a day that changed my life, it changed the lives of Billions. This is my story of that day and I ask that as I post it on my blog that you share it, for you see, there are so many people in so many lands that have a “That Day” story. It may not be about war, it may not be about being in the service, but they have a day when they just knew as bad as things may get, good people were around them and the sun was going to shine again…..someday! Thanks for sharing if you do!

THAT DAY: On September 11th 2001, I was stationed in El Paso Texas as the Commander of the 204th Security Forces Squadron, based out of Biggs Army Airfield. At 748 MT. I was late leaving the house for the unit, given my oldest Son had not been feeling well that night and we hadn’t gotten a lot of sleep. I was backing down the driveway and was tuning into to my favorite AM station for local news. The reporter was talking about a road closure when he stopped and said there was a report of a small aircraft crashing into the World Trade Center in NY. That was all he said as he went back to giving traffic updates. About two minutes after that, I was at a stop sign in my subdivision, the same reporter stated that it initial reports were it was possibly a commercial airliner and not a “ small private plane” as was first reported. It was then my heart skipped its first beat of that day! My job was to understand the world these types of events may come from and my gut told me, “They are back”! Same Target… with the resolve to strike it again. I knew in my heart what was going on, but I still hoped for the best. I decided to turn around and go back and see what was live on the cable news. Pictures and live feeds would help me understand far more than a traffic reporter on AM radio. As I walked back into my house, I told my wife to turn on the news and that there was something going on in New York I needed to see. As she was doing this, I called my “watch Desk” at the unit and told the Watch NCO to get the OPS CHIEF on the phone with me ASAP. I really can tell you who I was talking with on my cell phone, in my living room, when the second plane hit, but I remember watching it on FOX news!. Within five minutes of the second aircraft hitting the towers, my OPS CHIEF, on duty, MSGT Fredrickson called my cell. He had our “ Alert Team” at the Sergeant Major’s Gym on Big Army Airfield that morning for group PT. Being the outstanding NCO that he was, he only did one thing, he listened to exactly what I had to say and then read back to me the key points we had just talked about. I told him I would be there in 30 min and to insure the Gate Guards knew I was going to come through the “Expedited” side of the main gate. The drive to the base was a blur.. a thousand things going through my head, but his name was known to me.. Osama Ben Laden! Somewhere in that drive the reporter, who was doing a great job of what seemed like fifty different people trying to feed him slices of information, said, “there is a report of an aircraft striking the Pentagon”! That was the next true skip in my heartbeat that day. It was then I turned the radio off in my car. I had all the information I could process at that point in time. The priority now was to get to the unit. As I walked into the building, it was doing what it had done so many times before, moving a million miles an hour. People up and down the halls… .everyone moving with a purpose… everyone one doing exactly what I had instructed my OPS CHIEF to do. Did I mention what a sh.. Hot Troop he was???? As I walked into my office, My TV was already on and my OPS CHIEF and “Team Leaders” walked in right behind me. The sound was muted. We knew that images in a crisis make people like Moths to a Flame and we could not afford to stand there and watch the TV. The 204th was designed as a result of Khobar Towers attack. We stood up the unit in 1997 and its purpose was to be ready to go anywhere in the world within 24hrs and most times within 12hrs to counter “Level 1 or Level 2” Threats… Terrorist Threats. With a remarkable staff, we had a game plan to get all the members ready to launch by that night. Simply put, the unit was locked and ready to launch by 3pm that day. Did I mention a remarkable Staff??? As soon as everyone in my office knew what they needed to do, they were gone. I picked up the phone and called our Support Wing to let them know what we were doing and that we would mostly likely be “ off the net” soon! I was talking to a good friend of mine at that Wing, his name was Charlie Monroe. We were both looking at our TVs when the first tower began to fall! I told Charlie I had to go and that it was going to be a long day. He said, “yep”, but we will be ok! That is why I called him my friend! I watched the dust from the first tower and thought to myself, “ I wonder how many people where in that building”? One of our Office Administrators, Gloria, a real hero… walked into my office and said, “ One of the buildings just fell down”! I asked Gloria to find the OPS NCO and tell him to come see me. Not two minutes past and he was standing next to me staring at the TV in my office. I said, “ Fred.. have everyone that is here in the auditorium in one hour. Let’s make sure everyone understands what we are up against”. Fred was a rock solid Leader and I say that because I, for the first time, looked at him and caught.. just for a split second.. a look of bewilderment in his eye. A second after that, he was gone. Ed and Danny.. two of my other Top Notch Team Leaders walked into my office and looked at the dust rolling across the streets and simply walked out… .never saying a word and never even looking at me. It was the first “hint” of Anger and I knew these two men well. I finally took the time to sit and think about what the 204th had available, realizing I was going to get that phone call sometime that day. My staff had told me, but I was not processing information as fast as they were! Not unusual! We had troops in the Middle East when the attack happened and I thought to myself that was my first option… have them “stand fast” I say that because they were actually packing to come home and in fact, half the team was already in the air…….. a lot to ask troops who had just finished time in the Sand Box, but I knew they what their answer would be if I had to ask them. When my “Phone” Bat PhoneJ finally rang.. .it was a long … long conversation, but I knew what my priorities where for that day.. .. the next several days.. and that was all that anyone in my food chain could see was a couple of days.. the rest was too far away to care about. When I walked into the auditorium, I walked passed rows of the most professional people I have ever had the privilege to work with. I remember like it was 20 minutes ago, standing on that stage and saying, “ As of about three hours ago our Country is technically in a state of War! We do not know for sure who has attacked us, but we have our suspicions. We do not know what nation or nations have supported them, but when we do we will strike back.” I remember telling them the 204th was designed, equipped and trained for what our country was about to do and that we would do any mission given us flawlessly! I remember the faces of those who had served with me over the past four years.. looking up as I spoke. Some wanting to ask a thousand questions… we had maybe 2 of the common 5 Ws at that point in time and that is a very uncomfortable feeling. ( Who .. What.. Where… When.. Why. . the 204th didn’t care about Weather.. but we would take the time to ask.. “Why” …when we got the chance. …. The troops deserved that.) Of all the faces in that room that day, there was one that I will never forget.. the collective face! We were in that auditorium for maybe 30 minutes, but when we were done… most left the room mad! Mad because they knew what had been done to us and mad it was going to change our lives forever. I had told them this war would be a long war.. a war that would last the rest of some of their careers! As mad as they were… five minutes after we walked out to get to work… I heard the same old laughter.. joking in Spanish.. I never knew the jokes given I couldn’t speak Spanish. But the laughter after the jokes is all that mattered to me! The 204th was gone.. to several locations all over the world within 25 days after 9-11. I took the bulk of the force with me 25 days after 9-11 and the rest went to places I don’t even remember. That is how we worked… that is how we lived… I never had the unit in one location again.. They would not “reform” for over two years!!! We took on missions that day… where and what does not matter. The 204th went to War that day!!! They are still at war…. 10 yrs have past… and I would bet you they are still laughing and joking… in Spanish.. to this day. Oh ya. The unit that was flying home from the Sand Box on 9-11… all but one got right back on the plane and left with us! The one had a family emergency and came 30 days after we left. The ones that were still there stayed and met us when we landed. What a remarkable time… what a remarkable unit. The Bad Guys will never Win!!

THE FALL OF IDLIB…..AND THEN WHAT?

            So the Tsar gets his way and Idlib falls, but not after perhaps the worst battle in the Syrian Civil War.  By the way. How did all the “Bad Guys” end up in Idblib? Who kept telling them they could leave the other battlefields and get a free pass to Idlib? Who arranged a single point of conflict that could be pounded into dust until whoever was still alive gave up? Yep. Sounds like Grozny all over again!

            So, lets assume the battle for Idlib is over and the Russians inform the world the fighting is over in Syria. Now, everyone knows the “resistance” fighters who survive will melt into the population with one of two, or both, results. The level of insurgent activity, code for death and destruction, will go on for years. The “resistance” will pop up in some other region, most likely Iraq / Northern Iraq. Yep, it’s like playing Whac a Mole over there. But, from Moscow, all you will hear will be how the war is over and what a wonderful job they did saving Assad. When Idlib falls, nothing changes and that is the reality everyone knows, just ask the people of Syria. Do they go home? Home to what?

Bills:

            I heard the Iranians talking the other day about being involved in the rebuilding of Syria? Now, that’s a joke. What are the Mullahs going to use to pay for this part of their “rebuild….that Toilet Paper they call currency? Oh ya…. And watch the Iranian population when you tell them the Mullahs are going to invest even more money in Syria and not Iran. Good luck with that strategy.  How about Moscow? How many BILLIONS is the Russian Economy, just ahead of the Iranian level of strength, going to invest in Syria? The ports and the airfields and that’s it. Power, water, schools, Law Enforcement, ect….ect…ect….you know…..day to day living…how much of that will come from Russian pockets? Yep. We all know the answer. The Turks? Ya….right! they might as well take a loan from Iran for all the economic strength the Turks have. And finally, here is the kicker for all three nations who are joined hand in hand to help Syria, they don’t care! Can Iran moved through Iraq and Syria and Lebanon? That is what they care about. Can the Kurds be kept away from the Turkish border? That’s what they care about. Can the EU continue to see governments inside their organization change based upon the threat of mass migration, that is what Moscow cares about? Yep. Who makes Syria a “Normal” nation again? Nobody and that includes the US and the West. Moscow can win the battle of Idlib and then declare victory, but nobody is going to heal Syria. No body healed Darfur. No body healed Iraq, Afghanistan and I could keep naming them. War is easy. Killing is easy. Rebuilding a nation that you don’t live in or depend on, that is not only not easy, it’s just not necessary.

Assad or no Assad:

            If Assad stays in power, Syria will be a haven for insurrection and violence. If Assad is removed from power, Syria will be a haven for insurrection and violence.  Does anyone think the person waiting to be bombed in Idlib really cares? So, when there is no good answer, what is the ultimate answer? Let me give you a hint. Who spent HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of US dollars on Iraq? Yep. What’s the best chance to get the West to spend money on Syria? Answer. You must make the US get really involved, not just setting up training camps in the North. How can you do that with The Donald in the White House? Answer, you have to get the US involved operationally and then pray The Donald only is around for two more years. Then….then…you have to have another apologist like Obama voted in. You have to have a US President that again sends BILLIONS of US Tax Payers dollars to the UN so 30 cents on the dollar can actually be spent on Syria. Here is the real….real bad news. That’s not going to happen! Times have changed and that means the window for the good old days of Uncle Sam spending BILLIONS on Nation State Rebuilding has closed.

            The Russians will keep control of the areas important to them and let the rest rot. The Iranians will struggle to keep the Russians from striking a “deal” with the US over Iranian influence in Syria, buying their time to the exit of Trump. In the meantime, the IDF will continue to destroy anything they need to in Syria with the Russians just looking on.  Oh….did someone mention the Chinese might want to spend money in Syria? Here’s the cold reality of that idea? What’s in it for China? Oil? No. Gas? No. What then? Why spend BILLIONS on that burned out hole in the ground? Answer, they won’t. Life amongst the rubble piled in the streets. Homes based upon how many unbroken bricks your family, what’s left of it, can dig out of the rubble, that will be the new normal for Syria. The great Battle of Idlib. In the end, just more misery and more bodies to pick out of the heap. There is only one true savior for the people of Syria. The Military Industrial Complex and the money they spend on US elections. Iraq and Afghanistan are so wound down, it’s hard to make any real money right now. Syria, and perhaps a war with Iran….now…………….. there’s some real funding! Assad better not use those chemical weapons!

ERDOGAN, PUTIN AND ROUHANI MEET ONCE AGAIN, BUT WHO’S MISSING?

The Three Stooges or the Three Musketeers, you pick. Two huge egos and one Puppet. Three nations meeting to decide the fate of another nation and all three act like they have the same goals, but they can’t even  put together one paragraph for a press release that doesn’t sound ridiculous. As silly as Egodan’s statements sounded, it was the Tsar that made me stop and tilt my head like a Dog! “ Syria’s government has the right to retake all of it’s territories”. Wait….what?....... I have a question……. If the three of you believe that statement, and I don’t think you do, then why was the leader of the nation you are trying to save not invited to the meeting? As soon as that statement sank in, I read the next one from the Puppet about the US being in Syria illegally. Really? Can the Puppet produce a copy of the invitation letter sent to the Sultan? At what point in time did Assad say, “come on in Turkey and slice out a hunk of land for yourself”?

Everybody wants something:

            Everybody wants something out of the Syrian Civil War, and few, if any want the same thing. The Tsar wants to have a dominant footprint in the region of the world that produces the one item he worries about. Fuel. The Tsrar wants to disrupt NATO to the best of Russia’s ability and that explains the “bromance” with the Sultan. The Sultan wants the Kurds kept in check, but the Sultan also wants the West / EU / to see he doesn’t need them to be on the world stage, thus his side of the “bromance” with the Tsar. The Iranians? Well, the Iranians, want to keep the Arabs killing each other as long as possible and somehow wake up to the delusion the Mullahs rule over all of Islam. Now, that’s a problem because the Sultan has that same dream. The Tsar? He could care less about Islam as long as it doesn’t interfere with his vision of a Russian Empire. So there you have it. Just like I said at the beginning of the Arab Spring, you have three Empires all striving to take the lead in the region. The Russian, the Ottoman and the Persian Empires.

Why does the US stay?

            The Donald is like an old tune from the 80s….  “ Should I stay or should I go”, by the Clash…..clash…how appropriate. As of the 7^th of September 2018, it sounds like the US intends on staying, at least until The Donald tells someone they are leaving again. Training the Kurds and “others” makes sense if you are going to stick by them long enough for them to make an impact, but then again, what impact is DC wanting any of them to make? Yes, the so called training sites are great for infiltration ops into Iran, whoops…..did I say that? Never mind, but then again, the US doesn’t need that. They can just fly over and take all the information needed. So what is the US’s mission in Northern Syria….really? A lot of us think it’s just a great stick in the eye of the Tsar. Does the US need to be there? Not really? Does it upset the Russians and the Iranians and the Syrians? Well, it upsets the Iranians that’s for sure. As for the Russians, probably not. As for Assad and his so-called government? Who cares….he wasn’t even invited to the meeting. So, when the US hears, “you need to leave”…..the answer really comes down to, “ Make me”.

What is old is new again:

            When you get right down to it, the beginning of the conflict / Civil War / in Syria has its roots in the Arab Spring. A rebellion against unjust living conditions both economically and socially. The Mullahs saw it as a Western plot to toss out authoritarian governments in the Middle East, after all, the US President was nearly a card carrying Socialist and he was in love with the Muslim Brotherhood. So, in the eyes of Tehran, The Arab Spring had to be stopped at all cost. They had beat back those cries for justice in 2009, but here it came again and this time it had the US’s backing. Well, like any virus, something I called the Arab Spring for several years, it got out of control. The next thing you know, the puppet government in Syria was shooting their own people in the streets and the military was facing desertions on a daily basses. Just when the Mullahs thought they had an effective backfire in Syria, one that would keep the Arab Spring from Iran, the Russians show up with a completely different set of goals. If the West was going to push Moscow in Eastern Europe and go back on their word, then Russia would inject itself in the Middle East. Not only that, but they would begin to entice the unstable Sultan away from the EU and perhaps even NATO. In the eyes of the Mullah’s the Russians showed up and like any Mob loan, the interest rates for saving Assad’s rule were more costly than the actual loan.

            Trump comes to power in the US, and the left goes nuts. Not only does the US start to come apart at the seams, but the DC outlook to the whole Middle East changes and changes radically. The next thing Tehran knows, the people are back in the streets of Tehran marching for change and justice. Everything they tried to head off by letting Syria burndown has now come back to their front door. Somehow this Businessman wins in the US and the next thing Tehran knows, the whole game changes. Not only are they no longer going to make money off the West, but now, the guy in the White House decides to cut Tehran off at the bank account. Yep, things went from great to Shi- in no time. Yet, here they stand, the three Empires, all dreaming of a region they believe they will soon rule. I realize there is a lot of room on that stage they took their picture on today, but the best picture would be the one that shows each of them holding a dagger behind the other’s back.  Idlib. The Turkish answer is a Turkish trained “Security Force”. Let’s see how that one goes over when the cameras are gone. If you live in Idlib, stay in your bomb shelter. That photograph won’t save your life.   

NASRALLAH,  AL-SADR  AND SOLEIMANI. WHAT’S GOING ON?

                       

            The “rumor” goes, Nasrallah and Soleimani  have reached an impasse. Rumor has it that the Iraqi military stopped a press conference by a pro Iranian / IRGC/ supporter. Mr. Sadr just formed a working government in Iraq. So what is going on? Could the reported rift between Nasrallah and Soleimani, two huge egos, be true or could this be just another level of information warfare designed to destabilize the old men in Tehran? From the Mullah’s perspective, they better pray it’s not true, but one thing is for certain, the stability of Iran continues to be called into question. If Hezbollah fighters are not reported in the pending battle for Idlib, then, people will ask why? Oh, I forgot one other rumor. Rumor has it, Iraq denied Russian overflights of Iraqi airspace. Do ya smell Mr. Sadr here? Back to what I said just a few days ago. If the Iranians can’t pay the bills of their proxy fighters anymore, both Hezbollah and the militias in Iraq, then what? If Nasrallah can’t provide another “ Green Flood” to Hezbollah’s base, then what? If Soleimani can’t give orders to Nasrallah, how does that make him look?

Plata O Plomo:

            Just a few days ago, I made the comment the Russians may be saying, “ Plata O Plomo”, to Hezbollah. Well, who knows, maybe Soleimani is saying the same thing to Hezbollah, or maybe Moscow is saying it to both. Hell….DC may be changing the site picture by saying,” Plomo”, to both Hezbollah and Soleimani. If all of this was not crazy enough, toss into the mix Mr. Sadr and his desire to be the ruler of Iraq. Perhaps Soleimani will tell Sadr, “ Plato o Plomo”, or Sadr may say to Soleimani the same thing. One thing is for sure, back in Tehran, it all looks the same. Not only is Iran struggling to keep some level of influence in Syria, now it seems Iraq is pushing back on Tehran. Perhaps Mr. Sadr smells the same thing. Perhaps he to smells the blood in the water for the Mullahs in Tehran? Mr. Maliki, the Iranian Puppet and a few of the Iranian supported militias may attempt to counter Mr. Sadr’s new coalition, but that will only result in Sadr’s further entrenchment against the Mullah’s in Iran. Yep. The Iranian rial hit a low mark of 138,000 to the dollar in the past twenty-four hours. Try making payroll to Hezbollah with that toilet paper. If Nasrallah and Sadr are looking for a new “Daddy”, just how much longer can Soleimani hold on to a dying dream…. a dream by a bunch of old men who only see him as a servant? The conflict of Idlib may or may not consume the news from the region for the next few weeks, but the nosedive of Iran is still taking place? When does Soleimani jump out, or does he become a Kamikaze Martyr?