MOSCOW TO HEZBOLLAH, “PLATA O PLOMO”?

So, the Russians are reopening language schools in Lebanon? Russian “Cultural Centers, spy hangouts, are coming back as well. I’m sure this concept was run past Tehran for their support😊. So, here is my question. What does Hezbollah think of this? Do they run the country? Yes. Do they work for the Mullahs in Tehran? Yes. Do the Mullahs like the idea of Moscow moving into Lebanon? No. Are they going to say anything about it? Not out in the open they won’t. Is Moscow/ Putin / out to take control of Hezbollah? My bet is yes. Is Moscow out to gain control of the IRGC/ Qud Force? Again, my bet is they are. Why? Because the Mullahs have been too resistant to the wishes of Moscow and Iran is a mess. What better way to wipe the slate clean and still control the future of Iran than to control their thugs? The Iranian economy is in a freefall and no one is going to save it. From Moscow’s viewpoint, why not sit back, let the nation fall apart and then inject the leadership you own? How does Moscow pull this off? Easy, it all comes down to who pays the bills.  Young fighters in Hezbollah’s ranks don’t care about who is power back in Tehran. What they want is to get paid and to get paid on time. If the fighters are not being paid or paid on time, and then the Russians tell someone like Soleimani not only will bills be paid, but the level of support will go up, then what? Loyalty does feed the family back in Lebanon. The Persians have been sending the Arab Hezbollah members into the meatgrinder of Syria for several years, while the Persian troops sit back in airconditioned offices and play, “Advisor” …. A role no one really believes.

The New Alignment:

            If the Russian truly want to control what takes place in the region, then they have to control the major Thugs in the region and that’s Hezbollah and the Qud Forces. If Moscow wants the Mullahs to be doomed, then news flash….they are doomed and nobody tosses them a life vest….you know….that sinking ship I wrote about yesterday. With Hezbollah truly under Russian control then even if the Qud / IRGC / didn’t agree with the fact, there is little they could do about it. Hezbollah gets a paycheck from Moscow and the IRGC / Qud waits for bouncing checks from Tehran.

            Now, making all of this happen based on just the issue of money is just not the Russian way. You have to have a little hint of what bad things might happen to you if you don’t go along with the “offer”…..you know…… Plata 0 Plomo!  A few Russian “Centers / Schools” open up in Lebanon and the next thing you know, you get a text picture of your Mother or Wife walking down the streets in the Beqaa or Beirut with Two very large white guys just behind them. You get the picture. When you make “deals” with the Russians, you are handed a whole new playbook.

            Yes, things are changing in the region. Yes, the US and Russia may or may not come to an “agreement” on how the region operates, but one thing is a given. The relevancy of the Mullahs has run it’s course. Russia’s “plans” for their involvement in the region is based on control of oil and gas. Allowing the Iranians to resist Russia’s will by using their proxy Thugs is just not going to work. For Hezbollah, the message is clear. Go home and look who is walking the streets of your neighborhood. For Soleimani and the IRGC / Qud, you may hear the words Plata O Plomo again, but this time, they may be directed at you. Good Luck!

RUSSIA MANEUVERS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND IN VOSTOK?

            Its been hard to miss the hype over the past 24 hours about the Russians. The largest Ground “Exercise” since the Cold War. Then news of the Russians expanding their fleet in the Med with everyone saying it’s a counter to the US and Ally ships showing up near Syria…..oh ya…. I forgot to add the rumors of the US preparing to strike Syria over a pending chemical attack. Now, if you spent most of your day reading Facebook or Tweeting, you might see these two stories and think, good grief, that’s bad, real bad….oh…..look….Sally posted a new picture of her 3 year old! Even this morning, I sat and waited for CNN or MSNBC to run a story about how both these events are The Donald’s fault, but it seems the Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, paying hush money to Porn Stars is still the objective. Don’t worry though, you can rest assured if something does happen between the Russians and the US, it will be Trumps fault, why, CNN and their fellow Journalist may already have that story written. So, what is going on here? Why this impression of such a show of force by Putin? I will give you a better question to contemplate. Why not?

The Danger of Disunity.

            Has the US always been unique because of its ability to have a diversified government? Balance has been a key to stability in any Democracy. When the American people are split almost down the middle on the performance of the current party in power, that’s always been a sign of a “Healthy” government, right? Is that where we are today? Are we not just simply conducting business as usual? Nothing’s really changed, right? Wrong. Things have changed and they continue to change and those “changes” need to be recognized soon.

            How many times have your read about the “changes” to society brought on by the internet, social media, video games ect..ect…? How consumed are everyday people with issues that will not impact them? “News Alert….School Bus overturns in Illinois, five injured”. The public is bombarded with data from the moment they wake up until the minute they fall asleep, if they can sleep. When consuming large volumes of useless information becomes the norm, then it becomes very difficult to predict what impact that will have to society as a whole. Yes, some “experts” are writing books about this “change”, but the “change” is still taking place, even as they write. Just how much information about everything going on everywhere is enough? The Russians sailed three ships into the Med? It was all over Twitter and every other social media network all day long. So what? The Russians move three ships and it’s time to worry about war? Here is what worries me the most about the age of information overload. Are people ready to come to a conclusion within seconds in order to free up the time needed to go read or watch the next issue? Trump has been guilty of Collusion, Rape, Abuse of Power, and who knows what else since the day each story broke. Facts? No one has time for facts anymore. Ready Fire Aim….that’s the way we are heading. You take the historical balance of opinions in the US and you immerse it in the 21^st Century Social Media madness and you may no longer have a formula where “balance” creates stability. Balance becomes nearly impossible to maintain when the speed required changes by the minute. Wait…. I just got another new alert!

The Media:

            There was a time when the professional Journalist, working for privately owned companies, controlled the flow of information in the US. There was a time when a “good story” meant it would have to be backed by facts, things the Journalist could defend. There was a time the media didn’t look for a party slant, they just looked for the story. They were the Fourth Estate. They were seen as the guardians of truth. Simply put, the clear majority of the US public believed the media. Then the Fifth Estate came along. Yep….change. 24/7 cable news…..bloggers and then the real weapon….. social media. It was soon clear the ability for one party to gain and then stay in power would rest with controlling the message. That part of politics has not changed for thousands of years, but what did change was the type of weapon used to make it all work. People who wanted to influence the public’s opinions found their champions. They found their Billionaires that could create their own version of the media. Remember who started CNN and remember who he was married to, just an example😊. Cable news became the new political weapon and the Journalist needed to make these new networks work were students when? Yep. The 60s. As soon as the concept of this new form of information control was realized, the other side had to come up with their response. Yep. FOX news. From that point on, it wasn’t about truth, it was about ratings and power. Cable news could feed the US public 24/7 any message they wanted, and it worked, but then Social Media came along and with that the ability to control the message was lost. Not only was control lost, but more importantly, the ability to control volume was lost as well. By 2018, you could get alerts on bus crashes in India with no injuries within 5 min of the event. You could even watch the rescue taking place live.

Information as a Weapon:

            The concept of Information as a weapon has been around for thousands of years, but never has the weapon been so cheap and so powerful. In a society, such as the US, where people pride themselves on free speech, the ability to manipulate arguments gained a whole new level of importance. Balance of opinions became target. If the US population was always split, then how can that split be utilized to destabilize the nation? Answer, the constant flow of information that is one, worthless to day to day life and two, controversial to one side or the other. Yes. The weaponization of social media and the internet became a top priority. Why attempt to defeat the US on the battlefield, when you can get them to tear themselves apart from within?

            I’ve said this before and I will say it again here. The Russians and “others” goal was not to “own Trump”. Their goal was to disrupt the nation itself. Hillary’s Team was so confident and arrogant about the race they never paid attention to the fact they were manipulated. Trumps and his team were so arrogant and ignorant on how the process worked, they to were manipulated. What was the goal here? The further decay of the US social balance. What was the weapon of choice? The internet and social media. Here is the scary part. It worked far beyond the wildest dreams of those who plotted the event. The US population is no longer balanced. The desire by 90 percent of the media to see Trump removed has the other part of the nation just waiting to see if the process starts. If you are as old as I am, then you remember 1968, 69. I remember my parents thinking the country was coming apart. The difference was, most of the nation blamed an outside force, Communism. Today, we blame each other.  So, what does this all have to do with the Russians show of force in the Med and their largest military exercise in forty years?

It’s a Test:

            Years ago, the West and the Soviet Union use to do what we called, “Wire Runs”. Each side would spin up a full scale exercise and run right up to the dividing line…the wire. Yes, it helped each side work out the bugs in their battle plans, but it also had another goal. It allowed each side to see how the other reacted. It allowed each side to gauge just what the other side was thinking. So, you see, this is a Wire Run. The Russians have not done one in years, but that was then, and this is now. Are they looking for how NATO responds? Are they looking for what electronic tricks the IC uses to assess the event? Yes, but that’s not the real objective. The real goal is to see what reaction takes place inside the US population. It’s hard to pull CNN and others away from hunting Trump right now, but let a US and Russian Navel vessel bump each other, another Cold War test, or fire near each other, we can both miss if we want to, and let’s see what message comes across CNN / FOX / MSNBC and social media.

            How bad are things really? Just how divided are the US people? What message would the major cable news networks put out if a near crisis event took place? How fast would CNN and MSNBC blame Trump….the same Trump they claim is Putin’s Lapdog? Would the US population support their President in a war? What good is the might of the US military if the nation will not support the Commander in Chief? Is the US a Paper Tiger? That’s what this is all about, well almost. Let me end this rant by making a point the media has once again missed. Where is this largest military exercise in the past forty years taking place? Vostok! Where is Vostok? Near any NATO forces? Let me approach my point in a different way. Who use to own the area of Vostok? From the viewpoint of President Putin, who is this exercise really for? What is the real message? I know, the Chinese have been invited to take part. That makes the message even more intriguing. The location of the exercise is not lost on the leaders in Beijing.

IRAN….SYRIA…. IDLIB …..THE STRAITS AND THE “WHAT IF” GAME.

            Alright. I’ve not done this in a while, but it’s time to play my favorite game. If you have followed me in the past, you know exactly what that means. Yep. It’s time for the “What If Game”! Today’s topic of choice is the pending events in the Idlib area of Syria and the Straits of Hormuz. Are the two areas related? Yes, by one issue, the desperation of Iran. Rouhani was served up yesterday by the Iranian Parliament as they try desperately to pin their economic crisis on someone other than the old men in Tehran. In Syria, it seems the Russians are doing exactly what I’ve said they would do from the day they took their picture with the Iranians….. pimp the Iranians for the sake of Moscow’s goals. The future of Syria, from Moscow’s perspective, is going to swing with the issue of Idlib. As for the Kurds and the Turks, well, that’s for them to figure out afterwards. Iran is in a desperate position and their actions in the past two months have shown just how desperate. Now, it appears the future of their involvement in Syria is being manipulated, in the open, by Moscow, something the Mullahs have feared for the past several years. Yes, the Iranians signed an agreement with Syria this week. Yes, that paper will be used by Moscow as cover for not openly pushing Iran out of Syria, but the Iranians didn’t take that step for Moscow’s sake. They don’t give a flying carpet about Moscow. Right now, it’s all about Iran and the vision the Mullahs have had for decades going up in smoke. So, let’s get down to it. Let’s play the “What if Game”. It’s a game the folks in the IC love to play and if you’re lucky, when you retire you can write a book or two.

What if?

            What if the new, Syrian version of Hezbollah, the NDF and the other Shia militias are not allowed to have a slice of the pie after the Idlib event is over? What if they are told to head back to Iraq or somewhere else? What if Iran’s Syrian Hezbollah is simply told, “Get out”? Who is the future Police Force for the area? Don’t be too surprised if it’s the Russians. If not Russian Military Police in total, then Russian Leadership. Without that handshake with the Turks, I’m not sure they will go along with any other part of the plan. Score at that point…Turkey and Moscow … 1… Assad and Iran 0.  You can raddle off names of groups and names of leaders of these groups. You can site what group is from where and who they used to be. You can try to impress people by doing these things, but in the end, it’s all smoke and mirrors. What is important is the reality of who is really calling the shots here, and it’s not Tehran.

What if?

            What if the US and Russia don’t come to some agreement on the status of Northern Syria? Does the input of Tehran and Ankara really matter? No. Can they make whatever the Russian and the US come up with difficult to execute? Yes, but the “what if” question is about the US and Russia, so let’s focus on that for a minute. Does the Idlib area matter to the US? Does it matter to the Russians? To the Russians it’s a signal the task is almost complete. The process of saving Assad, not for Assad’s sake, but for countering the West in Eastern Europe, is a goal that must be reached. The Keeper of the Gate for all other issues in the Middle East becomes Moscow. How does the US and its Allies prevent Iran from interfering in the region? By getting the Russians to keep them in check. Here’s the problem. That’s the Moscow version of how this should all go down. Here is the problem with that vision. Team Trump and Israel may not go along with that vision. Moscow believes  Idlib may be the light at the end of the tunnel, but the ability to blow that tunnel is also in the hands of those Moscow only thinks they can control. Yep. Iran and Turkey. If Moscow thinks they can manipulate the relationship between Tehran and Ankara, and they don’t, then reality will be a hard pill to swallow.   You see, Idlib may be close to a final curtain call for the Civil War in Syria, but it’s a far more complex event than previous actions in that war. The players all have different agendas and handshakes are not going to solve any of them. If the US and Russians don’t come to an understanding on Idlib, then the proxy fight may be worse than any that have been witnessed. In the past few days, the stories of US and Allies ships moving into the area along with an increased Russian naval footprint are signs the “agreement” process is not going well. Russia’s MOD statement about the US and Allies preparing to attack Syria based upon a false chemical event was a carefully designed event. If that wasn’t enough, the rumors of Hezbollah’s reluctance to get involved in the pending Idlib fight is even more puzzling. Okay. Next “What if”.

What If?

            What if Hezbollah has a new Daddy? Have they seen the handwriting on the wall with the Mullahs and the Iranian economy? Do they think the small amount of funds from the EU will keep Iran afloat? Time and time again, I’ve talked about the actions of General Soleimani. His official trips to Moscow. How many times has he sat down with the Russians? Has every one of these meetings been approved by Tehran? Did the Russians ever ask to sit with him without his Boss knowing? Are the rumors of Hezbollah leaving Syria just part of a well-planned, disinformation event? Is it all designed to cast doubt in the minds of the Mullahs in Tehran? Or……… Does the Arab blood leadership of Hezbollah see the sinking Persian ship and decide to find a new partner?  Is Hezbollah going to have a role in the battle of Idlib or have they found out from their new Masters there isn’t going to be a decisive battle, at least not one that requires Hezbollah support? Would Moscow love to be the new secret controllers of Hezbollah and the Qud? You bet they would. Let the Mullahs be strung up from the construction cranes in Tehran and then simply control the future of the proxy fighters. Let Iran turn into Iraq as long as the flow of oil and gas is controlled by Moscow. If there is not a fight in Idlib, and there may not be, then the future of the Iranian supported Shia Militias is completely up in the air. They will need someone to champion them, someone to pay their bills. Iran’s being pushed out of Syria and its proxy groups know it. So, what does Iran do? Yep. Next, “What if”?

The Straits:

What If?

            What if it all goes bad for the Mullahs, and by the way, it is. What if, despite all their efforts, the future of Syria is not determined by Tehran, but by a deal cut between DC and Moscow? The Iranian economy is in shambles and growing worse by the day. Those that are ordered to beat back the protestors have families that can’t buy food. How’s that going to work for the Mullahs? I’m going to keep making this statement until history proves me wrong, or I get to say, “ I told you so”, but Tehran is not going to go quietly into the night. If they lose control over Syria, then someone is going to pay the price somewhere else. If they are losing control of Hezbollah, then their options are even more limited. Without Hezbollah, the ability to draw Israel into a limited conflict is nearly impossible. Direct actions by Iran would result in direct actions against Iran and even the Mullahs are not ready for that suicidal walk. Without the proxy militias support, you have to pay them to keep them, even the Iranian influence in Iraq is almost completely destroyed. A loss of Syria and Iraq would mean the loss of Lebanon and that’s about as bad as it can get for the old men in Tehran, well, except for the protestors showing up with construction cranes! At this point, the options will be extremely limited, but one school of thought comes to mind. If you cannot win, then take as many of them with you as you can. The Straits. What single event could impact the rest of the world, at least temporarily, more than the Straits? If you doubt this theory, why do you think the Iranians use this topic repeatedly to threaten the world? What impact would a 2018 shooting war in the Straits have on the world oil markets? What country would not want to see this event over as quickly as possible? Did you answer Russia? If so, good for you. 120 dollars per barrel, that’s music to the ears of Moscow, not to mention the ability to sell military hardware after the war is over. Pushing the Iranians over the cliff and letting the world blame the US is a great concept and one that is not lost to the logic of Mr. Putin. The US is so dysfunctional over Donald Trump, CNN and MSNBC would probably be cheering for the Iranian Navy as they screamed how the whole conflict was Trump’s fault. Can Iran be manipulated into launching an event such as this? Putin is the Puppet Master and never forget that reality. So, how would Russia insure this event doesn’t get completely out of control? By having a substitute government in the waiting, one that has Thug support such as Hezbollah and the Qud Force, that’s how. The youth of Iran would only have to hear that an interim, secular government is being installed as the fighting stopped and the population would be under control. Does all of this seem unreasonable? To many of you, it might. To me, it’s how the world really works. Idlib is not going to go the way Iran wants it and that will lead to Iran being more desperate than ever. A desperate government is a government that can be manipulated and who is the Puppet Master?

NATIONALISM ON TWO FRONTS AND PENDING CHAOS ON THE OTHER.

            Chinese Nationalism and Russian Nationalism is a reality. A pending political and perhaps social crisis is also a reality, but not in the other two Super Powers. It’s the pending future of the US. If you are in the category of people who respond by saying, “ Oh..China has it’s problems and just because some think they are turning Nationalistic doesn’t mean it’s true”….or, “ Putin is not as popular in Russia as everyone thinks he is and Russia is ready for change”, then you need to dig a much deeper hole to stick your head in. As a matter of fact, you may just want to cover yourself and use one of those illegal straws California is so upset over.   Nationalism is a reality in China and in Russia and they both smell blood in the water, US blood!

Get Trump:

            Let me go back to a few statements I’ve made in the past and then I’ll show you why they matter now more than ever. Did the Trump Campaign attempt to find “dirt” on the Clinton Campaign? Yes. Do you think this was some great anomaly? Do you really believe past Campaigns, and I’m talking all of them, have not done so? Do you truly believe the US’s political system is that pure? No, I know you don’t. No one in the US does, just look at the polls that depict the publics opinion of Politicians. Did Trump’s Team collude with the Russian government to get “dirt” on Hillary? No government ever plays this game at a level that would expose direct ties to other countries “officials”, at least no modern government. Did Hillary’s team seek information on Trump? Did they reach out to individuals or organizations that have shadowy backgrounds, backgrounds that would have indirect ties to Nation States desires? The answer is yes to both campaigns. Is it possible that both campaigns were manipulated by other nations and I say other nations, because you are a fool if you think the Russians are the only ones that play this game, that is unless you have some other reason you wish to pin the whole event on Moscow? Just how many elections do your think the US has openly and covertly attempted to manipulate? Do you recall my past comments about an event in Chile in 1973?  Whose “Boy” was Pinochet and if that one is not good enough for you, whose “boy” was Ho Chi Minh? Look. I’m not going to spend the rest of my time on this post debating what Hillary did or what Trump did. The issue at hand is far more important than that. The issue is not what they did, but why the response came about the way it did and what are the repercussions?  

He wasn’t Supposed to Win.

            In the US, you hear this time and time again. “ He wasn’t supposed to win”. That’s the battle cry of those who support Trump. “ He rigged the election with the Russians”. That’s the battle cry of those who hate him. In a nation that has been split down the middle since the Civil War, with elections that have been won by less than 3 to 5 percentage points, it seems the animosity between the two parties would be seen as nothing new. Here is the real danger, the 21^st Century danger. Those two camps in the US, Conservative and Liberal have pulled away from the center at an alarming rate. Yes, that has taken place in the past. Just look at the President Johnson events shortly after Lincoln’s assassination, but the world was not connected then. The power of Social Media was not there. The weaponization of information on a global scale didn’t exist. Hit someone with a stick in California with ten people standing around and five minutes later, the world is reading on social media about the “Riots” in the US.  Yes. The sleaziness of Politics has not changed. The lust for power has not changed. What has changed is the most powerful weapon that man as ever invented is now in the hands of governments. social media. It’s cheap, it’s easy and it can bring down a nation in a matter of days, just ask the Egyptians.

            Trump was not supposed to win? Why? Because the polls said so? How many times have you heard how useless polls have become? To those that support Trump, Polls are not the reason. “The Deep State”. That is the reason. That’s where the, “Drain the Swamp” concept came from, not the first time we’ve heard this statement, but Trump made it work. The Deep State? Who makes up this so called Deep State? You can listen to a dozen, “experts” and everyone of them will tell you to buy their book and you will see the light. Yep. Scaring people is big business, but is the concept false? Is there no such thing as a Deep State? Sorry to say, but, yes, there is such an organization and who the member are should not surprise you. What is the “end-state” of the Deep State, that is the far more important issue.

            I once walked into an old friend’s office and noticed he had put a poster up on his wall. It was the picture of an old American Indian Chief and below him were the words, “Democrats and Republicans…. Feathers off the same Bird”.  The Bureaucrats….. the folks who believe they are the Autocrats of both US political parties. Here’s the catch. The members of the “Deep State” are not just government employees. I know, that is nothing new and you’ve heard that time and time again but let me give you a new twist to contemplate. Members of the Deep State are not citizens of the US. When it comes to money, HUGE money, citizenship and party politics will typically play second fiddle.

            So, along comes this guy who figured out how to win the Electoral College in the US and he beats out the family rep to the international “Deep State”. The Clintons spent years manipulating the flow of money on a global scale. Deals were set. The Russian’s would be placed back on the pedestal as the world’s true villain and the funds that would have to be spent to stop them once again would be in the trillions. Remember, we are talking about a person who was the US Secretary of State when she announced that Putin had to be stopped. You want to talk about medaling in other nation’s elections? Try that statement on for size. The only problem was , the person she convinced her Boss to support ended up dead, kinda like Vince Foster. Well, the next thing you know, Trump is saying things like, why is there still a NATO and why doesn’t the UE pay their share of the bill? Wait….wait…. this guy is going to upset the natural order of things. Who does he think he is? So, you see, the world had a rhythm. The so called “Deep State” / the international Deep State, had it all figured out and then Trump won! Trump, the guy who looks at every meeting like a CEO Board Meeting that’s reviewing cost and investments. All of this is old news. Every word here is part of much a larger topic that has been tossed around since the day Trump won. Let’s get back to what’s important. Let’s get back to the, “so what”, part of this story, because it’s the “so what”, that can change the future.

Nationalist vs Chaos:

            The Dragon is on the move. One Belt, One Road and 1.5 Billion Chinese being led by an authoritarian Emperor who has temporarily, and I do mean temporary, partnered with the Russian Bear and its Tsar. The Western International Deep State Team has been manipulated into leveraging the growing divide inside the US and it seems the Eagle is heading for a hard landing. The people in the US are so focused on the Crisis half are cheering for and the other half is praying against, that few of them see what is coming. Without unity, there is no desire. Without pride, there is no effort. Yes, the old saying once again comes to the forefront, “ A divided nation cannot stand”.  How does a nation, even one as powerful as the US, withstand the pressure of two completely Nationalistic Super Powers when the US seems bent on tearing itself apart?  Look. Here is the real bad news. This is not some self- cleansing event. When you hear CNN and MSNBC talk about the US Department of Justice working to bring “Justice” to the nation, it’s a “Justice” only part of the nation believes is true. Have you heard CNN or MSNBC or even FOX speak to the issue of what may happen if President Trump is removed from power? What percentage of the nation will believe any finding DOJ comes up with? What percentage of the US believes the DOJ has been turned into a political weapon, or worse, a weapon of the dreaded, Deep State, a state both US parties seem to be beholding to. Just how much damage can the US withstand? It’s largest cities have virtually nothing in common with 95 percent of the geographical landscape. For decades, it’s been the Liberal left that has marched in the streets of the US’s major cities, marches that were supported by the KGB in a quest to weaken the nation. What if that tide turns? What if the people who support Trump take to the streets because the don’t accept the findings of the DoJ? Has anyone thought about where the US may be heading and all over a process the US political system has been using for over 100 yrs? If the verdict is, “Trump didn’t beep his horn and the law states you have to use your horn before you pass someone on a roadway”, then what? Yes, it’s a simplistic analogy, but the point is important. Who is the victor at the end of the day? If we remove a duly elected President, who gains from the event? Two of the Three Super Powers in this world praise their leader, yes some at gun point, In the Third, they are ready to lynch him and anyone who supports him. You tell me who wins in the end?  For those of you who scream for Trump’s scalp, are you prepared for what comes afterwards? I am😊

LOPEZ OBRADOR AND MEXICO’S NEW DREAM.

        

            Lopez Obrador has told the Mexican people for years how he would change Mexico, but then he won. He actually won the Presidential election. A few weeks ago, , I talked about this Mr. Obrador and his visions for Mexico. As I was reading Borderland Beat, a great site by the way, I came across another article about Obrador’s “plans”. The last I spoke of Mr. Obrador, I used a rather broad-brush approach to his vision of how he would change Mexico, but this time around, I’m going to address one specific topic in his “vision”, the Mexican Law Enforcement concept. With a “vision” that calls for removing the military from the streets, a plan that was born out of panic two Presidents ago, and allowing Mexico’s civilian Police, federal and state, to do the job they were hired to do, its ‘obvious Mr. Obrador doesn’t comprehend the current status of Mexico’s legal system, or worse, he does. Does he really believe the Mexican Military, as corrupt as even parts of it may be, can be pulled out of the day to day task of fighting the drug gangs? Where might this actually lead Mexico? At what point does the US’s Southern Border Neighbor become so dangerous, that things there can no longer be ignored? Yes, “Ignored”. If you think the US has not been ignoring the status of Mexico, then you have no true understanding of the two nation’s relationship.

The courts.

            Several years ago, the US and Mexico entered into an agreement to modernize the Mexican legal system. The plan was to build a true network of Courts, Prosecutors and legal procedures that might bring at least a more acceptable level of law to Mexico. A level of law that might actually  give the Mexican people hope and more importantly, trust.  Gains were achieved. Mexican Universities supported this reshaping of the legal system, but the reality is, the whole concept is still years away and that’s if it continues. The dream of the Mexican people is simple. They want to walk into a courtroom and believe that everything that led them to that point was legal and balanced. Yes, I know. The argument can be, “ How can the US help Mexico achieve this goal, if the US system cannot achieve the same level of balance”? Look, if you think the US legal system is no different than that of Mexico, then you have other agendas and you might as well stop reading this post. What the US was and is trying to achieve, is a stabilized form of law, one the people in Mexico can support. One the US court system can link with as the war on the drug gangs continue. As long as the Mexican government realizes the only way these gangs find justice is by extraditing them to the US, the Mexican people will never accept the process they live with. If you have an injustice committed against you and your family and or community and the people that did this simply walk away, Mexico will never be stable. Building a legal system in Mexico is nearly as monumental as nation state building in Iraq and we all know how well that went for the US.

Law Enforcement.

            Are there “Good Cops” in Mexico? Yes. Are there “Good Cops” at all levels? Yes, but, here is the reality. The ones that are “good”, live in fear. They often have to comply, compromise their integrity, just to stay alive or know their families will remain safe. How’s that for an incentive for getting up and going to work? What must it be like to live in fear, even when you have a gun on your hip, fear of the very people who are working with you? I can’t imagine looking into the eyes of the people I’ve sworn to protect and have them see you as part of the problem. Oh…..wait….I’ve been there and done that! Never mind.

            Mexico’s Civilian Police programs have had billions of US tax dollars invested in them and there have been tangible achievements, but nowhere near the level the Mexican people need to see. Corruption is still far more common than anyone can be expected to accept. People realize the good cops still live in fear. At the end of the day, for all that has been done, the civilian law enforcement process in Mexico is still broken.

            Training. Training and equipment have been the priorities for the concept of building a better program in Mexico. What training and equipment cannot prevent is the fear. If you are a Police Officer working the streets of Juarez and you come upon a group of drug gang members doing something you know you have to stop, who do you really count on? Who really has your back? Is it your fellow officers? Are the ones closest to your location honest? Are they going to come to help you when you call or are they going to stay away? Just what level of your job are you capable of doing? This scenario plays out every hour of every day in every town, city or state in Mexico. If your fellow Officer nearest you is like you, what about your supervisor? What about the Chief? What about the local Prosecutor, Judge, Mayor? As an honest Police Officer, just where does your confidence lie? What level of training provided by the US Department of Justice addresses your ability to trust everyone around you? When you wake up and get ready to go to work, what is your real goal? Yep….. stay alive. A goal that is not that much different than in the US, but in the US, Cops get up and go to work because they know they can make a difference. If a Supervisor is corrupt, they can go to Internal Affairs, they can go to the FBI or the state. Where does the honest Mexican Police Officer go? When you make the decision to confront that group of drug gang members in Juarez, what is your last line of defense? The Mexican Military, that’s who.

The Military.

            Most of their leaders don’t want to be in the streets of Mexico. That is not the job of any nation’s military. Some of Mexico’s most senior military leaders have openly made this point known. So why are they still there? Why were they put there in the first place? Everyone knows the answers to both questions. Failure and panic. Mexico’s lack of an effective legal system as well as corruption at all levels of government, just ask Fox’s Son’s In Law”, led to the panic that shoved the Mexican Military onto the streets of every state in Mexico. A force that was designed, trained and equipped for combat is now walking the streets of every major Mexican City or town. Gun battles with not only gang members, but uniformed Police Officers at the state and federal level became a daily event for the Mexica Military. Just when they thought things couldn’t get any worse, they did. Rumors had been floating around for years about the corruption within the Mexican Military. Why would they be excluded when the corruption reached the highest levels of the Mexican government?  I remember the day I had to have a conversation with an old DEA friend about a group of Sedena Generals coming to visit my operation. He asked who was coming and when I told him, his words were crystal clear, “be carful what you tell them”. Sad, but true. As soon as the drug bosses saw the military take to the streets, they had only one answer, increase the level of corruption. Soon after my experience with the “briefing”, I was asked to attend a CODEL / A Congressional Delegation. One of the topics covered an incident on the Rio. An incident where it was alleged a Mexican Army unit provided cover as a drug shipment was recovered from the river. Photos where shown, and a few of us were asked what they told us. My answer was simple. Someone had access to a complete SEDENA HUMVEE lookalike, to include a whip Antenna on the lead vehicle, not to mention the unit flash on the front. The members along the Mexican side of the river seemed to be wearing SEDENA uniforms and were taking orders from someone in the lead HUMVEE. Did this mean SEDENA was guilty of supporting the drug gangs? I was not there to answer that question. The fact was, the perception to everyone on the US side of the river was, they believed it to be true. Well, with the exception of Border Patrol. They had no “official Opinion”. Is SEDENA a completely corrupted organization? No, at least not in my opinion. Are there levels of corruption in the Mexican Military? Yes. Has that level of corruption impacted the status of the military? Yes. Do the people of Mexico hold the military in the same regard they did before they were deployed into the streets? No. In fact, the stories of the “disappeared” in Mexico now have a nexus to the military. Sounds like Columbia all over again doesn’t it? Is there a reason why some of the uncorrupted, senior military leaders want out of the mission? Yes. If the public no longer trust the military, the one organization they did trust prior to the deployment, then at what cost is this mission taking place? More importantly, how many of the uncorrupted military leaders know the level of corruption? How many know where the highest levels of corruptions exist? President Elect Obrador plans on pulling the military out of the mission, but what happens when he does? What happens to those uncorrupted Law Enforcement Officers who worry about everyone around them? Obrador states he’s going to build a “new force”. Everyone knows that’s a pipedream years away, if at all, and no one knows this better than the honest Cops going to work every day. Obrador knows the dangers of leaving the military on the streets. He knows the perceptions that already exist. He knows the level of corruption inside every level of his government. The cancer of the drug money is not a tumor. The cancer is a blood cancer and is always the case, the treatment has become as deadly as the disease. In December, Obrador will get his chance to make a difference. The odds are against him and as usual, the US will be jumping up and down, focused on some other corner of the world. I just wonder what will happen in DC when someone suddenly hears a popular leader in Mexico shout from a podium…. “ Viva la Revolucion”!

CHINA’S TRAINING TO STRIKE THE US? OKAY….. SO WHAT ELSE IS NEW?

“ The Russians did this and the Russians did that and there’s a Russian behind every voting booth in the US”….and so on …..and so on! Russia…..Russia….Putin….Russia! Good grief. Back when the Russians were Communist, the Liberals in the US loved them….hell.. they even wanted to have their babies. Then, thanks to the Liberal’s Hero, George Soros and a few of his buddies, the Russians went Nationalistic and now….now… they are responsible for just about everything bad that happens. Wait. I’ve been down this road and did so just within the past few weeks. I Don’t want to beat that horse again, but I did bring this up for a reason. China! Hello! Everyone is focused, phobic on the wrong country.

China Prepares for War.

            So, the annual Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China 2018 report was release to Congress and what do ya know, it states the Chinese are preparing for war with the US and it’s Allies! Amazing. What an insightful conclusion that was. Just how much manpower went into this report and how many US tax dollars? The Chinese are expanding their capabilities “rapidly”. Who would have guessed. You mean to tell me the Chinese PLA is actually training for war with a potential enemy? Now, that’s a cutting edge mindset. No, wait….every, even Simi modern military does the same thing; why, I thin the US may do something along these lines! Okay, nuclear Bombers that are training to reach further targets than in the past. Wow, ground breaking stuff here. So, should we all get ready to head for the bomb shelters? Is the Dragon about to lay waste to Western military capabilities? What are we to do? We have the Chinese preparing for war with the West / US / and we have the Liberals in the US ready to attack the Russian because we all know it’s their fault Hillary didn’t win. Things look bad folks….real bad…..perhaps we should just fold the tent and hope for the best. I have an even better idea. Can we stop screaming about the Russians and perhaps get ready with the Russians for the day when the Dragon spreads it’s wings all over the world?

It's about the money.

            What are reports like the one mentioned above really for? I know, the Pentagon and political answer is, “we need these reports to prioritize our efforts”. True, but some of us know the other, “real reason”, is because the Military Industrial Complex needs to keep the political leaders pumping the dollars into the corporate bank accounts. Can you imagine a report on the status of China’s military that said, “ they can’t do combined arms….they can’t project their Navy…they can’t resupply to the other side of the world…..they can’t fight a conventional war away from their mainland”. Now, how much money is going to be spent on those statements? How do you get people to give up their money if you can’t scare them to death? Okay, before I really do head back down the road of a post I did a few weeks ago, let me get back on track here.

China’s form of warfare.

            The New Silk Road Project / Belt and Road Initiative / concept. What’s it really all about? Is it a form of revolutionary warfare? Think before you answer. What’s the biggest worry of every nation that’s enticed to be a member of the wonderful adventure of Belt and Road? If you said, indebtedness, then I’m proud of you. Yes, that is exactly what the issue is. So, how is indebtedness a form of warfare? Well, that’s a question best answered by the Chinese, but I can take a shot at explaining.

            Let’s jump twenty years, give or take, in to the future. Let’s look at a world where every “key” nation’s debt is owned, controlled by China. Sound crazy?  Go back forty years and tell DC that China would own the US debt to the point of no return and would do so within thirty years. Often, things that sound outrageous now, become reality at some point. A great and wonderful, world trading process design to make every nation happy and wealthy. In so many words, that’s the pitch China is giving the New Silk Road project. “Everybody wins”! If you believe that, truly believe that, then you need to store a Chinese flag in your garage and that way you won’t have to find one when the time comes that every house is required to fly it. The New Silk Road / Belt and Road Initiative/ is a form of warfare the Chinese have invested almost as much money in as they have their military. Economic control, global, economic control. That’s the goal of the Dragon and the superior military is the hammer held over everyone’s head if they don’t sign the papers. The New Silk Road is not about Happy…Happy land. It’s about China fulfilling the dreams Xi continues to speak of. China’s time to rule. Why send a Aircraft Carrier Strike Force to the coast of the US, when you can simply pull the purse strings of every nation that takes out the loan for the magical Silk Road? “We need your resources and we will employ you as you send them to us”. Sound crazy? Let me give you another example of this new form of warfare the Dragon is unleashing.

Siberia.

            When you’ve been talking about these topics as long as I have, it’s hard not to repeat yourself. Having said that, let’s talk about Siberia. Who owned a large chunk of it before the Russians? Yep. The Dragon. What is Siberia full of? Yep, everything the Chinese need to continue to build the Empire. How might China go about taking back that large hunk of Siberia? Yes, it’s hard to do when the folks that own it, own a whole bunch of nukes. So, you have to get far more creative. You have to find a way that almost goes unnoticed, until it’s too late. Okay, here is where that new form of warfare comes into the picture. “ When Siberia Will Be Chinese”. If you’ve not heard of this documentary, go to Amazon Prime and search for the title. Get somewhere quiet and leave your phone in the other room. Watch the 51 minute program and as you are doing so, think about my pitch of the new Chinese form of warfare. I don’t want to spoil the program for you, but when it’s over, if you don’t understand what I’ve been saying, then go back and get that flag I was telling you about.

Winter is Coming:  

            I’ve used the analogy before of the White Walkers and “ Winter is Coming”, but like I said, when you’ve been posting as long as I have on the topic, your are going to repeat themes from time to time. Yes, the Chinese are preparing for war with the US and “others” and it’s that list of “others” that better keep the Russians up at night. Okay, here is one last concept the Liberals in the US are going to have to come to terms with. “ United we stand, divided, we fall”. Here’s the catch. Who makes up the, “We”?

BOARDING THE SAVIZ

            Yesterday, I read an article that states “Trump to sanction Iranian ship, ‘Saviz’ for role in Houthi attacks in Red Sea”. Now, I had talked about this ship just a week ago or so and it’s clear now, everyone seems to know its real role. Some say it’s a surveillance platform Iran has parked in the Red Sea. Okay, that in itself is not that unusual. Everyone has “observation platforms”, everywhere. But, then the more logical story comes back to the surface. The Saviz is a “Support Ship”. It’s an operational platform used to provide weapons to the fight in Yemen. The reality is, the ship is most likely both. The other reality is, it’s a Goldmine.

The Taking of Saviz.1…2…3.

            After reading this article, my opinion did not change. “Sink it”. It’s an operational platform in a contested conflict that has played a part in attacking two oil tankers…..sink it! Send the message. As a matter of fact, I almost wrote this post with the title of, “Sink the Saviz ”. Yep. A rip off of a great movie.  Just as I was putting my thoughts together, a far better idea came into my head and it’s an idea I guarantee you the IC world thought of as well. Don’t’ sink the Saviz, board it! Give the Mullahs their version of the January 2016 event with the US Navy. Board the ship, take the crew and search the ship.

Search. Now that’s where the Goldmine comes into play. Just think of the intelligence that’s on that ship? Yes, the IC folks have most likely sucked every electronic signal that could possibly come from the Saviz, but people have a very hard time accepting captured electronics. Pictures. Pictures and the statements from the crew. That is what would do the most damage to Tehran. The story of the US and its regional Allies boarding the Saviz would be a stop the presses moment. It might even make CNN and MSNBC come off the Trumpophobia for a few minutes, at least until they could blame him for stoking the fears of war with Iran. By the way, I have to believe Saudi would love this idea, if they have not already thought about it. What’s onboard that ship? Weapons, Missiles, the same type used to attack the oil tankers? Again, the IC most likely knows given this ship has been watched for over a year and here is another, “by the way”. The Saviz was sanctioned before the Obama 2015, “deal” and the US lifted the sanctions as part of the “deal”. Go figure.

Can the US actually board the Saviz? Is it legal? Can the argument be made the ship was involved on the attack of the two oil tankers? If so, and I bet the evidence is there, it just has to be declassified, then you bet. Not only can it be boarded and the crew taken into custody, the ship can be impounded as well. Now, some of you are probably saying, “ya….but will the Iranians allow the ship to be boarded”? If you asked that, then you don’t understand the capabilities of the US Navy. The fact of the matter is, the scenario of boarding and taking the Saviz has most likely already been drawn up and rehearsed over and over again. That’s how the Navy does business. If Team Trump gives the order to the SecDef, the Savis will be boarded. It does have one option, it can blow itself up. If it has a skilled crew, and the crew is most likely IRGC, and given what it’s mission is, the plan to scuttle the ship is there. The issue becomes, do they have time to do it, or does someone, who is somewhere else, have the ability to flip the switch. Iran sees the mission coming and sinks their own ship and as it’s going under, the accusations fly the US and it’s allies attacked an Iranian flagged cargo vessel. All of this makes boarding the Saviz a very sensitive issue and that sensitivity could be why the boarding has not taken place yet….not……yet. As a matter of fact, I would be willing to bet, that is exactly why it’s not happened, but the mission is ready, on that you can rest assured.  This ship is a twofer. It’s intelligence value is extremely high, but it’s political leverage is amazing. Just imagine the consequences for Iran if the proof is shown? The story of The Donald placing sanctions on the Saviz once again, seems illogical, unless that sanction means it can no longer sit in the chokepoint of the Red Sea. If that is true and the message is given that it must leave, then the clock starts for a different type of showdown. As for me, I would place my money on tasking the Seals and perhaps a few Delta Boys, they both love this type of mission, to take that ship without anyone knowing until it’s too late. The Saviz. This little ship could become a big part of history, but only if the gains outweigh the risk. From the US Navy's perspective.....it's an opportunity for a little "pay back Time". 

IRAN. THE FALL OF THE MULLAHS, AND THEN WHAT?

            Okay, before I get started, let me correct something from a few days ago. Somehow, and I really don’t know how, I labeled Egodan as a Shia. In the old days, this would have been called a, “Brain Fart”. Anyway, I was just sitting here, thinking about the situation with Turkey and it came to me, I had actually written that down. As Bill Clinton use to say, “mistakes have been made…. let’s just move on”😊. Wow, I wonder if that would work for Team Trump?

            Iran’s rulers. Are they closer to being tossed out than in the past? Is there really a chance the Mullahs’ may be given the boot? If you spent your day reading the economic news about Iran, you might just think there’s a chance. The price of an egg is the same for a military member’s family as it is for any other citizen and that makes economic conditions a very dangerous tool.  Can the Mullahs find a way to feed the entire military, with the IRGC families given priority of course, without the rest of the nation finding out? Nope. Do military members, even IRGC members, hear from their loved ones and friends how bad things are getting? Yes. Are things really getting as bad as some are reporting? The US Intelligence Community / IC / knows the answer to that question and that information is briefed at the White House every morning. Are members of Iran’s military growing tired of the conditions they are told to support?

Collapse.

            Just how fast could things fall apart in Iran? What would happen if the protesters in Tehran numbered in the tens of thousands and then hundreds of thousands? How long did it take for the government in Egypt, a nation that was far more stable than Iran currently is, to fall? Let me put this issue in a different perspective. What is the plan if the government in Iran disappears and does so quickly? Is that a better scenario than what took place in Syria or is it worse? Everyone is cheering for the fall of the Mullahs and everyone is cheering for the protestors, but what is the alternative? What is the “plan” incase the wildest dreams do come true? Who fills the void? Who chooses the Provisional Government that would need to be established? Does anyone think Moscow has had this conversation with the US? How many nations would want to have a say in a Post Mullah Iran? Everyone is praying for a collapse, but an old saying holds true, “Be careful what you ask for”.

Highjacked:

            What happened to the Arab Spring? It was…..yep….Highjacked. What happen to the Russian Revolution against the Tsar? Yep….highjacked. How many honest uprisings have resulted in some other movement taking advantage of the public uprising, only to end up with some new version of oppression? History is covered with this storyline. Who is sitting in the shadows as I right this, plotting to highjack the possible revolution in Iran? Worse yet, who is lining up to support these groups in the shadows? The possible courses of Actions on Iran are being modified by the US / IC/ world daily and you can rest assured, the same thing is taking place in Moscow, and multiple other capitals. Earlier, I asked the question, is Moscow and the US talking about this possibility? If you gut told you no, you’re probably right, but then again, I hope that’s not true and for the people of Iran, I pray that’s not true. If the big two are not talking about the possible fall of the Iranian government, then those I spoke of off in the shadows are going to have a huge advantage.

The List:

            Okay. Who are these groups that might be plotting the high jacking of the possible Iranian Revolution? Right off the top of my head, one name comes to mind. The Sultan! Yep…..Egodan!  Would he love to shape the future of a new Iranian government? Absolutely. Would he make a play for the Iranian public’s support based on the threat of “outside” interference”? Yes. Who would he be referring to? The US and even Moscow? Yes. Without Iran’s input, who is left to shape the future of Iraq and Syria? Who would be Hezbollah’s Puppet Master? What an opportunity for the Sultan to extend his rule. Do you think he will enter into an honest conversation with the US and or Russia about the topic? Not hardly. How soon would someone like the Sultan attempt to put such a plan into motion? Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t already have his fingers in the pie. Is there anyone he might collaborate with? Isn’t there a Sunni takes over the Shia Capital issue to think about here? Is Saudi and Israel just going to sit back and let everyone else rebuild the new Iran?

Saudi. 

For all the plotting the Sultan may be dreaming of, why wouldn’t Saudi be doing the same thing? Is there the possibility Saudi also has their fingers in the pie? You bet, and probably more than the Sultan. Now, has Saudi talked to anyone about a post Mullah Iran? Could the Kingdom and the US and or Moscow have at least approached the topic? What would a post Mullah Iran look like from the balconies of Riyadh? If you forget the possibility of a Trump Putin love fest, and come to the realization that no such thing exists, who would Saudi have this conversation with? How could the centerpiece of the Sunni faith be accepted by the rest of the Shia world if they were seen as molding the future of Iran? If the Sultan and the Saudis both have dreams of a Puppet government in Tehran, just how hard will those dreams clash? Would ether side be willing to fund / support yet another Civil War in the region? Have you been watching Syria for the past few years? Would they both be on the same side and then against each other? Could Syria be repeated? Religion is vital to the region, but it takes a backseat to egos and oil!

Israel.  

            Who are the best planners in the region? If you didn’t answer the Israelis, you’re fooling yourself. What would a post Mullah Iran look like to Israel? This time, the answer is much different. Two conditions would be given the highest priority. 1. The complete dismantling of the nuclear program, and I mean a real dismantling, not the joke signed in 2015. 2. The abandonment of Hezbollah.  Who is Hezbollah without Iran? What is the future of Lebanon without Hezbollah? Where would Hezbollah go? What would they turn into? My hunch is they would try their level best to convert the rest of their influence into a purely political party. Look at the IRA as the example here.

            So, there you have it. The Israeli vision of a new Iran is one that has no nuclear program. One that has no proxy fighters named Hezbollah and a border with Lebanon that is finally secured. No dreams of a puppet government in Tehran. Israel would leave that up to Saudi, the US and Moscow. The Sultan? Not so much.

            The end of the Mullahs would lead to one other issue that Israel would be forced to address. Yep. The Palestinian people. No threats from inside Lebanon. No parades in Tehran demanding the death of Israel. The whole issue of state-ship would come to the table and most likely it would come quickly. The pressure to find a true answer would be squarely on the shoulders of Israel.

The Region.

            Would the whole region stabilize with the fall of the Mullahs? That’s a very, very complex question. Do the Mullahs go quickly and peacefully? Does someone have a “plan” that can be agreed to if the fall does take place? If not, then the question about the region becomes one with a simple answer. There will be no peace. In reality, the region may see an even greater event than the destruction of Syria. Yep, out there in the shadows are the ones that will bring greater problems to the region and the world. Someone needs to come up with a plan and it needs to be one that is agreed to. Some may want the Mullahs to stay and the funds of China may come into play at some point, but if the people in Iran can’t buy eggs in two or three weeks, you better drop  that Chinese money from squadrons of Chinese Bombers.