SOUTHERN SYRIA AND THE ROAD TO WAR? MAYBE SO!

          Is Quneitra the flash point of a pending conflict between Syria, Iran and Israel? The push into the emotional area of Daraa, the starting point of the Syrian Civil War, is no longer the question waiting for an answer. The support of the Russians, support that was not supposed to happen according to some of the “Experts”, had made this Daraa push possible. So what’s next? Is it truly a push toward Quneitra? Does Moscow truly believe the Israelis will not be good to their word? Do they think DC put the pressure on Israel to not react, even in Quneitra? Did anyone happen to notice the so called “negotiations” between the forces apposed to Assad the Syrian government are being held by the Russians? The Russians, not the Iranians and not Assad? How’s that going over in Tehran? Will Israel attempt to prevent an all-out assault on Quneitra? If the so called “ Rebels” know this, then why have they not fallen back to Quneitra, or have they? Just how close are we to the event some have predicted was coming for months and who is paying attention?

The Trip:

          Lt Gen. Eisenkot popped into DC a few days ago. Why? I think everyone here knows why? Rumors are floating The Donald is striking a deal with Putin to pull US forces out of Syria. The deal is reportedly a BIG ONE. The US will leave if Russia insures, really insures, not the version Obama used, the Iranians and their puppets, Hezbollah, withdraw from Syria. Not just Southern Syria, but all of Syria? That was the red line the Israelis set and they keep their word on redlines. So, that’s it? General Eisenkot comes to DC to see if the US will show him the final “deal” The Donald and Putin will meet over? No. No, that’s now what the General was there to do. Israeli Generals do not travel to DC to speak of diplomatic Chess moves. Generals travel to DC to go over the “Plan”! What plan you might ask. The plan for the neutralization of Syrian, Iranian, Hezbollah forces in Southern Syria.

Why?

Why would this plan need to be finalized at the General Officer level, if the US and the Russians are striking a deal? Simple, because neither the US or Russia really believes this “deal” is going to take place.  The reality is, the real conversation between The Donald and Putin will be about NATO and China;China the Dragon that wants to consume both the Eagle and the Bear. NATO, the topic that keeps the Eagle and the Bear from joining forces and preparing for the Day of the Dragon. Who knows what this conversation is really going to be about? The Prime Minister of Israel, that’s who. Did anyone forget the relationship  between The Donald and Netanyahu? Does anyone think for a second The Donald cares if the IDF lays waste to the rag-tag pro Assad forces in Southern Syria? Does anyone think Putin does? Yes, they flew air support for the move on Daraa, but what harm was there in doing that? Okay, so the civilian population was forced to once again flee a conflict zone. So what? that has been going on for seven years. Does anyone in Tehran or Moscow really care? No. Does Israel see this as a deliberate move to force a crisis on it’s borders? Yes. Does it force this civilian population to be on the ground between the IDF and the forces that will attempt to enter Quneitra. Yes, but that won’t matter. The issue here is not Assad and his seven year Civil War. The issue here is Iran and it’s ambitions in the region. Is Iran going to willingly leave Syria? No and they certainly won’t do it because Moscow tells them to.

          The goal for Iran is to have Assad stay in power and reclaim all the lands of Syria. The next phase of the goal is to have Iranian forces stationed in Syria. The problem is, the time for these goals to be implemented is running out. If Putin get’s what he wants from The Donald then Iran’s dreams will go up in smoke. No, really, up in smoke!

Sunday evening, Lt. Gen. Eisenkot is not going to brief the Israeli Security Cabinet on what the US is thinking. He’s going to brief them on the finalized arrangements required for the IDF to execute what everyone seems to know is coming.  

IRANIAN’S PROTEST. IS THERE ANYTHING DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

          I’m not sure what round this is, but it appears the old men in Tehran are facing yet another cycle of        protest against the government. Will this one play itself out like those in the past year or so? Most likely, at least that’s what the countries leadership is hoping for. Is there anything different this time around? Yes. The economy is even worse than in December of 2017. Is it bad enough for this uprising to take hold this time? That’s hard for anyone to predict, but if you watch the clips from the protest, it’s clear the government forces are reluctant to just go in and crush the events. Will the infamous rooftop snipers come into play? That depends on the government believing this round of protest may not subside. Remember, nothing disperses a crowd like seeing someone’s head explode. The odds are, the old men in Tehran are going to let this one playout for another day or two and then readdress their options. So, in the end, is this event any different than what we have witnessed in the past? Times have changed, and change is what makes a new protest potentially much different than past events.

From Bad to Worse:

          The Donald’s move on the Iranian nuclear “deal” set into motion a series of events that both DC and Tehran knew would impact the day to day lives in Iran. The continued crash of the Iranian currency was a predictable outcome of the US pulling out of the “deal”. The old men in Teheran also understood it would be increasingly difficult to blame Iran’s economy on the actions of the US. They can make that statement, but they also know the odds of the public believing that excuse is very slim. Their evidence is the fact none of the protest are marching to the chant of “Death to America”. Now, you can bet the government’s counter marches will begin ether today or in the next few days. If the old men don’t attempt this historical tactic, then that’s a sign they may be more worried than we know. They have two choices. They can attempt to contain the protest and hope the marching and yelling gets old; not the government’s style by the way. Or, they can meet the protest head on like they did the Green Party in 2009. That tactic worked then, but when they told Assad to use it in 2011, all hell broke loose! The old men in Tehran have one more option, but it’s by far the most dangerous option.

Outside Threat:

          It’s a timeless option nearly every government in history has turned to. If you have to rally a populace that is unwilling to support the government, then make them fear something far worse. Does anyone remember, “THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING”! Yep, the proverbial “Outside Threat”. It’s a tactic the old men in Tehran have used in the past, but this time around might be different. If the failing economy is the real catalyst of a pending revolt, why would they not use this time tested approach? My bet is they will, and they may do so in a dramatic fashion. Would the old men in Tehran risk a conflict for the sake of saving their rule? Absolutely. Would they risk this conflict on their own soil? That depends on just how desperate they become. For example, let’s say Iran pushes the events in Southern Syria to the point a limited conflict between Israel and Syria takes place. Could Tehran convince the youth of Iran the time had come to show their nationalistic pride? Remember this sense of Persian Pride is something the IRGC has been trying to populate inside the youth of Iran for well over a year now. What happens if the call for Nationalism fails? What if the youth of Iran continue with what they are already saying, ‘Stop spending money on Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Yemen and spend the money on Iran’s people’! Then what? Do the old men in Tehran take the conflict to the next level? At that point, do they have anything to lose? If they do push the crisis to the next level, a level where the existence of the Iranian military is threatened, what happens then? Just how loyal is the leadership of the IRGC? Just how loyal is the leadership of the Iranian military? Will they allow Iran to be broken to the level of Iraq or Syria? It’s far easier to round up a few dozen old fanatical men, than it is to fight your own country as well as an enemy’s military you know you cannot defeat.  How does this all play out? Where does this round of protest lead Iran? You can bet this scenario was table topped over and over again inside DC before The Donald set the game in motion. The US Secretary of State is in Moscow. The objective is to lay out the discussion between Putin and Trump at their pending summit. You just have to wonder what the discussion will be on the topic of Iran. The old men in Tehran are wondering what Putin and Trump will talk about and you can bet they won’t trust anything Moscow tells them after the meeting is over. Things just keep getting worse for the Iranian government, well, at least the current one.

ERDOGAN: RISE TO THE TITLE OF SULTAN AND THEN WHAT?

          So, Egodan the Sultan, pulled it off. He has become the Supreme leader of what he hopes will be the new Ottoman Empire, an Empire that will no longer look to the EU or the West. The new Ottoman Empire will align with the new Russian Empire and the new Chinese Empire, or so the so called “Experts” state. Can Russia and China offset the economic impact of pulling away from the West? Yes. Can the departure of Turkey from NATO cripple an already decaying concept? Yes.  Would both of these events please the Chinese and the Russians? Yes. Do both the Chinese and the Russians have the same intentions for this new Ottoman Empire? Yes. What is that common intention? Why, to manipulate the Ottomans to their advantage of course? Do the Chinese and the Russians have the same end-state for their manipulation? No. Does the new Sultan realize this? Yes. Does the new Sultan have his own manipulative plan for both the Chinese and the Russians? Yes. So what has really happened here?

NATO’s Breakup:

          Russian sales of the S-400 system to Turkey is a very hot topic with the US.  The intent of the Russians is well known. Moscow has been working hard to pull Turkey away from not just the EU, but from NATO.  NATO and the spread of NATO into the old Russian Buffer zone has been the catalyst of just about every event Putin has implemented. The strategic impact of Turkey leaving NATO would be dramatic. The EU’s ability to offset the loss of Turkish forces would be nearly impossible. The very foundation of NATO would be in jeopardy and The Donald’s stance of the EU paying more the bills would surely come back to the forefront of the entire NATO discussion. No one understands this more than DC and Moscow. The problem becomes, the US has openly given in to Turkey to the point no one is confident The Donald will continue to do so. It’s just not in his nature. On top of the issue of The Donald’s nature, the ego of the new Sultan almost guarantees this breakup is coming.

          Turkey is heading in a new direction and that direction is not to the advantage of the West. So what is the West / US / to do? What options are on the table? How does the West respond to the events in Turkey? Well, first off, the idea this event was about to take place was not new. The West has been watching the Sultan push Turkey in a new direction for years. The reality is, the West / US / has been preparing for this day since turkey walked away from the Iraqi Invasion plan in 2003. Does that mean NATO should have been in a position by this time to live without Turkey? Yes. Is it? No. Why? The leadership of the EU members, that’s why. Does the US military need Turkey to execute its missions in the region? No. So, does the US really need NATO? No. So, why is it still there? Politics, and that’s a deplorable answer. For NATO to be disbanded would have meant all of the old Soviet Buffer-zone countries would have been unwilling to even speak to the EU. The EU needed NATO to show Eastern Europe they would have a level of protection if they came in from the cold. The US went along with this plan for two reasons. 1. It allowed the US to keep a military capability near the Russian border. 2. It was good for the Western, Military Industrial Machine. Threats are just what you need when you are in the business of selling arms.  Okay, let’s cut to the chase. Does the US need NATO? No. Does The Donald like the idea of paying most of the bills for NATO? No, and he has said so time and time again. So, what is going to entice The Donald to kiss the Sultan’s hand, just so Turkey will stay in NATO? Pressure from the EU? No. Not unless the EU takes on a much larger share of the bills and even then, it may not happen. Will someone convince The Donald Turkey is going to slide into the Russian/ Chinese camp? They’ve been telling him that since the day he showed up in the White House. So, Turkey is about to end it’s 100-year alliance with the West? They are about to become a new member of the Eurasia? It looks that way. But then again, the Ottomans are about to step into the room with two far more ruthless, far more dangerous, “Partners” than they have aligned themselves with for the past 100 years. Just about the time the new Sultan begins to gloat, he may soon realize, Ottomans will learn to take a knee. The Bear and the Dragon are both hungry and they both like the taste of Kumpir.

BAD BLOOD WITH THE RUSSIANS. WHAT HAPPENED?

         

          So the US’s relations with the Russians has reached a low point not seen for decades? According to the US Democratic party, the Russians are suddenly responsible for just about anything negative in the world. The drumbeat of, “You can’t trust them”…… Putin is the most dangerous man in the world”, seems to go on and on and on. The Russians are even responsible for Hilary not winning the election in 2016. Somehow, the Russians and Tsar Putin have become the Bogyman the Democrats are sworn to defend the US from. To top it all off……………………THE DONALD IS IN ON IT! How can this be? Weren’t the old Soviets everything the Liberals dreamed of? The redistribution of wealth…..free health care………… everybody’s job pays the same…….everyone gets a home and no home can be better than the other guys……………….You know…..Communism. Why did the Soviet Union have to fall and ruin everything for them? Why did Russia have to change?

Nationalism:

          When the Soviet Union fell, the world had a window of opportunity to heal a wound that had nearly destroyed everything on several occasions. When the Russian people finally forced change in their system of government, in a process much less violent than the previous event, the West was not prepared to show the new Russian nation a valid course to success. Instead, opportunist  like George Soros, a man who had a huge grudge against the Russians, a man who made his fortune by leveraging other nation’s currencies, set the Russian banking system up for failure and his profit. Why? The story starts and ends with Hungry and the Soviet Union, but that’s another topic.  So, when the Russians were willing to join the West, the assistance they received was feeble at best. A nation that had only months earlier held the pride of an Empire, suddenly couldn’t adapt. Going backwards was not an option. Going back to the failed dreams of Communism was out of the question, but the Russian people had pride, a pride that was based on over a thousand years of Europe looking down their nose at them. Nationalism had never died in Russia, it had simply been given a new name, Communism. When Communism died, it did not take Nationalism with it. The lost since of pride allowed Nationalism to flourish. The only way the Russians understood how to make money was based on the process the KGB had used for years. The black-market. The so called Russian Mob, was the example and from that example, legitimate businesses were developed. Now, Western corporations, such as oil, were all too willing to make a deal with any Russian agency that appeared to look like a legitimate company. And so………… the foundation of the new Russian Empire was built and it needed a leader……………a leader who understood how the rest of the Western Economic world worked and just how ruthless it could be. George Soros was not an anomaly to the new Russian government. He was just another example of how corrupt this thing called a Free Market Enterprise really was. But, if there was one thing the Russians knew how to be, it was ruthless! It was the foundation of their new leader, a leader who had one dream; to establish the Russian Empire. An Empire not based on the hollow dreams of Communism, but an Empire built on power…..fear……. and most of all………….respect. Putin came to power and his symbol was not what the  Liberals in the US or Europe wanted to see. A Nationalistic leader who would do whatever it took to reach his dream. A leader who supported ruthless aggression if needed and doing it all with a grin on his face. To the Liberals who dreamed of a Utopic State of balanced wealth, Putin was the Devil. To them,  the Conservatives had forced the destruction of the one form of government that allowed everyone to be equal regardless of the cost and even worse, they were responsible for the rise of the one they now feared…………..Putin………The new Tsar of the new Russia.

From Bad to Worse:

          There’s an old saying, “Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, it does”! Well, that is exactly what happened. NATO. NATO and the Western promise not to move into the old Soviet States of Eastern Europe. That promise was broken. That single issue, NATO, became the centerpiece of Western / Russian tension. From that point on, just about every issue between the US and Russia became inflamed.

          There is another old truism, every major event has a defining moment, a moment when change takes place, change that may or may not be anticipated. That moment took place in 2014. It took place as the words from the President of the United States were spoken. “ Russia is a Regional Power that threatens it’s neighbors out of weakness”! Now, just imagine how these words impacted a person like Putin. Just imagine how this foolish statement impacted the man who dreamed of rebuilding the Russian Empire. Just think of how those words sounded to the common citizens on the streets of Moscow. What amount of energy would Putin place into his dream now? What other tools did he have in his possession. This statement burned into the mind of the Nationalist and all of those who supported him.

Consequences:

          The Russians are responsible for Hilary not becoming President. Hilary Clinton, the same person who as Secretary of State openly supported preventing Putin from becoming President in 2018. It was the Russians who decided to disrupt the US elections and it was the Russians who gave the US Donald Trump. These are the delusional thoughts of the Progressive Liberals who now dominate one party of the US’s two party system. Who is responsible for the actions of the Russians? Who is responsible for the flow of immigrants into Europe with the intent of destabilizing every government in the EU? Who is responsible for turning Syria into a Super Power Proxy War? The Liberal Left need only look into the mirror. President Obama cost Hilary Clinton the White House, but that’s not that unexpected given the fact the Obama’s hated the Clintons anyway. Yes, when you say the wrong things at the right time, when you allow Thieves like Soros to make first contact with a wounded Enemy, then the results are almost predictable.  Why has the relationship with Russia deteriorated so far? Idiots, that’s why, but then again, it seems Idiots are popular when it comes to politics.

DOCTOR MIRELES AND AMLO. MEXICO IS ABOUT TO CHANGE.

          Do you know who Doctor Mireles is? If not, you should, unless you don’t care what may be about to happen in Mexico. Who is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador / AMLO? Again, if you are not aware and you live in the Americas, you need to know. How did I come across the topic of the Good Doctor? Well, that is a long story, but one I have enjoyed for several years now. I’ve posted about Doctor Mireles on many occasions and I had in-depth “discussions” about him in my prior life. Is he important to the future of Mexico? Yes. I was one of the few that sounded the alarm bells when the Autodefensa movement began. Pete. You remember those early conversations with the so called “experts”!   

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2018/06/mireles-i-ask-pena-nieto-to-keep-his.html

An Alliance:

          Doctor Mireles openly supports AMLO. Now, that is an alliance that will not go over well in Mexico City. AMLO, the guy known for being left of left, the Mexican Bernie Sanders, but a little more left than Bernie. The guy who is riding a wave of social unrest in Mexico. By the way, not his first time of riding that wave. The guy who is making huge promises to a public that is desperate for change. Is he an outsider to the establishment of the PRI and the PAN? You bet. Is he squeaky clean? Nobody in politics is squeaky clean, but the good news for him is, the Mexican people know this. Is he making promises that will be very difficult to keep? Again, he’s a politician. Just how worried is the Mexican and “other” establishments over his pending win? No one is covering the story in the US and that should give you a clue.

          It’s true, AMLO has followed the Good Doctor from the beginning. Does the Doctor feel some level of commonality with him? Yes. Will it last? That depends. Can AMLO overcome the Billions of dollars the drug business pumps into Mexican government at all levels…… and I do mean all! Can the corruption that is Mexico’s government simply drag AMLO into the trenches and just time him out? Yes. Does AMLO know this? Yes. Does he truly intend to take on the real issue in Mexico’s government, corruption? Well, that’s what he says and that is what he is running on. Just how much “change” is about to take place in Mexico? I will say this, if it’s not enough, AMLO will lose the support of the number one Folk Hero in Mexico…. The Good Doctor.

Words of Warning:

          Doctor Mireles made a stern warning to President Nieto, not one of my favorite people as well, but why? What made the Mireles think Nieto was going to change the outcome of the election? Even more interesting is his insistence the Mexican government is moving its military into position for some event after the election on July 1^st. AMLO is going to win. Would the establishment government in Mexico, one that AMLO is not currently part of, take action against its own people? If such an event was even being considered, the US government would be all over that issue and US media would have picked up on such a huge pending story. So, what is the Good Doctor referring to? Why did he make a direct appeal to the members of the Mexican Military? If any part of this interview was confusing to me, it was this issue. Mireles is a supporter of AMLO, but Mireles is not a follower and his support will be limited if anything starts to smell like compromise. The vision for the future of Mexico is somewhat compatible between these two figures and it wouldn’t surprise me to see AMLO reach out to The Good Doctor soon after election day. The problem comes when AMLO fails to deliver on all the changes. He is already perceived as moving to the “center” and looking more like Brazil’s Da Silva. Moving to the “Center” is not the sign The Good Doctor wants to see. There is no “Center” for Mireles. His dream is to “ change the social reality” of Mexico. These two may get along for now, but AMLO is about to become a President in a nation run by other people’s money. That is not the environment he and The Good Doctor will grow a relationship. The military is on the move according to the guy the common people in Mexico admire. What does that mean and is it even true? Keep your eye on Mexico. Things are changing and I am sure CNN will find a way to say it’s The Donald’s fault! 

SOUTHERN  SYRIA. STICK TO THE SIMPLE VERSION OF THE STORY.

            The attached article by Mona Alami is a well written snapshot of what is about to take place in Southern Syria. It’s complicated to follow and written at a level many will find filled with too much detail. That is why my comments I posted on the site were much more simplistic.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/syria-south-conflict-russia-talks-regime-rebels.html

ColDan • 7 minutes ago

A well written article. If you make this event as simplistic as possible, it becomes easier to understand what is taking place and what is at stake. Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iranian supported units in that area. That is not up for negotiation and the Russians and Americans understand this. Russia's ability to control the actions of Iran are growing more limited by the day. The so called "Alliance" was nothing more than an attempt by both parties to manipulate the other to their advantage. Iran cannot allow Russia to control the fate of Syria. If Iran doesn't agree to the terms the Russians have set with Israel and the US, then Moscow will allow the Iranian and Hezbollah forces to be decimated. This has already happened numerous times as Moscow has attempted to show Tehran the cost of not going along with the plan. Thus, the 2nd meeting between the Russians and the IDF, last week, was a "Deconfliction “process prior to IDF operations. Why has Syria's assault not taken place yet, as Assad stated over a week ago? Because Moscow has given Assad a choice. Follow Tehran or follow Moscow. Finally. the IDF will not wait. No amount of verbal threats or blustering talk from Hezbollah will prevent the IDF from acting as soon as they deem it is time. Moscow has cleared the way for that event.

            As is often the case, the more complex the description of a pending event becomes, the harder it is for people to understand what is truly at stake. So, again, let me be perfectly clear. Nobody is gong to convince Israel they should accept some level of Iranian influence in Southern Lebanon.  Moscow has stated Israel has agreed to the Iranians pulling some 45 miles away, but I’ve not heard that from Israel. What I have heard Israel say was the simplistic warning that no permanent, military or militia location will be tolerated in Syria. How convinced was Moscow this statement is true? Why do you think the second meeting with the IDF took place?

Why is this different?

            Northern Syria is all about the Kurds, the detreating relationship between the West / US / and Turkey, oil and gas, Russia desire to control that market, Moocow’s relationship with DC, Moscow’s attempt to degrade NATO by pulling Turkey away from the West, a mad man who thinks he’s the next Ottoman Sultan and last but not least, Iran’s dreams of expansion. Yep, Northern Syria, if you cut the country just North and South, is far different that Southern Syria. Southern Syria is about one thing. Israel. Iran will not be allowed to threaten Israel from Southern Syria…….period! Israel’s statement about “all of Syria” could be a bargaining point factored into it’s talks with Moscow, but the issue of support operations, besides what Hezbollah has in Lebanon, is a non-starter. Yes, Israel will destroy Syrian forces if needed. That is why Moscow has given Assad a choice and that choice has Tehran furious. Moscow’s words are simplistic, but in another language. “Plata or Plomo” …..Plata being Moscow…Plomo being the IDF. Poor Eye Doctor. It’s been a hard eight years.

NORTH KOREA….. “PEACE IN OUR TIME”….BUT FOR WHOM?

          I’m going to take one more shot at the whole North Korea issue today and then I’m heading back to what matters in the short term. Iran and Israel.

          So, the “deal” is done? Even The Donald said it may or may not work, but he thinks it will. Check! That is what just took place. He placed a check next to that campaign promise. All the talk is over, “will it work or not? Can we trust the North Koreans”? As usual, US politics seem to be more important than finding a true answer to the issue. The internal politics of the US bores me, so I want to press this issue with a true warning. This was a Chess move and the person making the “move” was not from North Korea.

Goals:

          Back to something I have said time and time again. What is the goal of the Chinese? Answer; the reduction of Western / US / military leverage in the region / South China Sea and ultimately, the Pacific. The dream of the new Chinese Empire has been in the making for over fifty years. Xi’s now openly talks of the new day. The day when China controls the world in economic trade. The day when the world follows China’s lead. In the mind of Xi, that day is hear. Who is North Korea in the world of China? At first, they were a gateway for invasion. A gateway they could not allow anyone to hold. Next, they became the Buffer Zone! Then they were formed into what they have remained for over fifty years; a rabid dog on a short leash. A wild animal held in the face of the West to buy time; time for China to build it’s might so that one day, they could stand in front of the West and no longer need the wild dog! Folks; if this deal is truly “done”, then we better be worried far more than most think. If the Dragon no longer needs the little wild dog, then it must believe it’s time has come. The Dragon is ready. Xi is ready.  Power projection is now possible. China can defend or attack. It can do so in ways the rest of the world is not prepared for. Xi says, “ It is our time now”! Does that explain letting the rabid dog be put to sleep?   Did this deal go through? Is it for real? Those that say they hope so need to be very…..very….careful in what they “hope” for!

@ColDan11

NORTH KOREA. THE ONE ON ONE AND IRAN’S SECRETS.

          Let’s take a US, political process check real quick. If Obama had pushed this deal, the right would be screaming. The Donald pushes this deal and the left is screaming! So, that part of this story is worthless. Let’s move on.

          Oh to be a fly on the wall of that one on one. The Donald unvetted, un-coached by the political pundits that drown most Presidents; how did that go? What was said on both sides? Did the Little Fat Guy guard his words? The odds are he didn’t speak to any issue the Donald may have brought up that Xi told him not to speak of. You can bet that room was swept cleaner than anyone can imagine. How about the Little Fat Guy’s body? I wonder if that was “checked”? Something tell me the “ one on one” was listened to ether during the conversation or soon afterword’s. Why did The Donald want this “ one on one”? What was it he wanted to say? “ Look…….you don’t have to be Xi’s puppet. You can be your own man. Step out Youngman. Be a real leader”! If Trump would have said something along those lines, knowing the conversation would get back to Xi, you can bet it would have shown on Kim’s face. It’s highly likely, The Donald told his trusted staff what took place in the one on one. Someone may have even given him some pointers…….. be thinking National Security Adviser or Mr. Netanyahu. Yep. My point to all of this. Did Iran come up in the discussion? Was the one on one have anything to do with Tehran?

Friendships:

          In the world of business, The Donald’s world, friendships take a second seat to “business”. Everyone knows the relationship between Iran and North Korea was based on nuclear weapons development. Just what does the North Korean leader know about Iran’s program? What was The Donald able to pull out of him? How big was the enticement? Did Xi instruct the Little Fat Guy not to speak of Iran? Did he listen? How bad would the US want that information? What would it be willing to give? A comment was made, after the meeting, by The Donald that US forces may someday leave the South Korea! Wait…….What????? I can bet you Japan and the rest of the gang choked on hear that being said. Did anyone take that statement serious? Haven’t I always said that was the ultimate deal the Chinese were looking for? Okay, Trump did say, “not part of this deal”. Ya…. right. Everything is in play, it’s just a matter of placing a timeline on any of it. It seems clear the US place a few huge incentives on the table, but what they are asking for is, in their opinion, worth the gamble. Pay close attention to who was sitting next to The Donald in the official meeting.

          Isolating Iran by working with the G3, US / Russia / China….yep… the G6/7/8/ is old news to the Donald, is underway. China listens up when the US starts hinting at a reduction of forces in the region. Russian listens up when talk of NATO’s future is on the table. Iran has nothing to offer to this process. They don’t even rank with the G45, much less the new G3. Was Iran’s future determined yesterday? Just how worried are the old men in Tehran over what was said in that one on one?  Alliances.  A bond that has always been temporary. Soleimani…..Big Macs my friend….be thinking of Big Macs!   

NORTH KOREA….IRAN AND THE BIG MAC BETRAYAL 

          Many of us have known of the “relationship” between North Korea and Iran and the desires for nuclear weapons. But now…..now…it appears the allure of a Big Mac is going to win the day. Is it possible? Could the Little Fat Guy give up on his religious zealot partners for Ronald and Donald? My oh my, things seemed to go from bad worse for the old men in Tehran, or at least it appears that way. What if? What if there truly is a break in the relationship between North Korea and Iran. Then what? What is Iran to do? Who can they turn to? Betrayed over a Burger?  

Let’s play. Let’s play my favorite game.

What if?

          What if the two nations believed they could transfer the knowledge or even the weapons themselves? Could they get away with such an act? Is it possible to move the vital parts of a weapon or weapons without being detected? As the saying goes, “anything is possible”, but it’s highly unlikely. Hint. Not so unlikely that I didn’t find a way to work it into my pending book😊 Even if the US / West / did miss such a movement, would the Chinese or the Russians allow this to take place? Again, highly unlikely.

What if?

          What if this whole denuclearization event was a stunt? The little Fat Guy was just trying to play The Donald. Well, the reality is, both North Korea and Iran will never get the chance to show the world what they own or were trying to own. Getting both nations to sit at the table and then have North Korea drop a political bombshell, well, in my opinion, that cannot be the plan designed in the land of the Dragon. If it was, then the word needs to hold on tight because that outcome would only be designed with a much larger crisis in mind. If this is an “I got ya” moment, then Iran will still be on their own. There won’t be anyone in North Korea’s government to answer the phone.

What if?

          What if, when it’s all over, the Little Fat Guy is stuffing down Big Macs at the new Trump Tower in Pyongyang? What does the old man in Tehran do? I was the guy who came up with the “ You go…. I go” concept between Iran and North Korea. Just search this blog site and you will see what I mean. If the “You” is removed, what is Tehran to do? One is the loneliest number!

What If?

          Now, I don’t think this one is much of a “what if”. This topic is more along the lines of, “ Oh Ya, now that makes sense”. What if the isolation of Iran was the major secondary goal of The Donald? What if China and Russia knew this and the understanding between the three nations was ether agreed to or tolerated? What does Iran truly mean to China or Russia other than a source of fuel? Yes, Iran could be utilized as a proxy nation in the quest to counter the US, but the issue becomes, is it needed? If some larger game is in play now, let’s say, the Pacific or the South China Sea, then Iran is once again sitting out in the hall while the Big Boys discuss business.  The future of relations between the US, China and Russia is not going to be determined by Iran’s input. North Korea is the key to US/ China relations and Iran is not going to change that fact. The reduction of US forces in the region is the goal of China. The reduction of nuclear madmen is the goal of all three major players. Both Iran and North Korea are ruled by such men, but the guy who seems to want a Big Mac has a chance to survive. Watch the Quneitra region of Syria this week. The fate of Iran may well be shown. If I was an Iranian military Commander, I would be thinking about Big Mac’s and not Syria.

By the way. I gave in.  My twitter tag is                ColDan11.. it has the Thunderbolt and Lighting Cap:) 

IRAN’S ENRICHMENT THREAT. THEY EDGE CLOSER TO THE ABYSS.

          Khamenei orders the preparation for enrichment? Unless the EU falls on it’s knees and meet’s the crazy old man’s demands, the Iranians will press ahead with enrichment. I fully realize this delusional zealot doesn’t care how this statement will play in Israel, but I can assure you, his military leaders do. Does anyone truly believe Israel will allow Khamenei’s threat to become reality? Yes, it will take some period of time set the enrichment process in motion, but that only holds true if they truly were not already prepared to do so. Does Khamenei see the EU leaders as so weak that this threat may actually work? Is Iran convinced  the EU is that addicted to their new found trade with Iran? If this threat by Khamenei is nothing more than a bluff, and I don’t think it is, then have they thought about the results of it not working? What is the crazy old man trying to accomplish? Russia is on the verge of gaining ground in the battle of support from the EU and as such, there is no possible chance of Iran gaining support from their so called “Ally”. If Iran is going to threaten the West with the restart of their weapon’s program, a program they stated they never had, then the only logical question is, why? What else may be taking place here? Just how desperate is Tehran?

Going it Alone:

          A conflict between Iran and Israel has only one outcome for Iran. The Iranian list of “ who is with us”, is very……..very short. Hezbollah and perhaps a few slices of Hamas, but I wouldn’t count on that part. Lebanon? Nope. Hezbollah may have the upper hand in Lebanon’s government, but the destruction of Lebanon for the sake of Iran is not going to happen. Russia? Forget Russia. As I have said time and time again, there is money to be made after a devastating war with Israel and Moscow loves to make post conflict money. Really, everyone does! Are their own. That is the reality for the old men in Tehran. On their own and at the end of the conflict most likely completely unable to control the anger of the youth inside the country. Yes, the IRGC has been attempting to build a nationalistic movement with the youth of Iran, but some of us think that is for the post, conflict Iran. Is Iran able to inflict damage on Israel or those that might support them? Yes, and that is exactly why the IDF will not wait until the Iranians are prepared for that level of conflict. Netanyahu’s visit to the EU nations was not about trade. His message was clear. Israel will never allow Iran to restart a program Israel already believes still exist. Iran is threatening to push this crisis to the next level. The old man’s plan is the EU will fold and give Iran as much as it can. That plan is insane. Last week, the statement was made, NATO will not support Israel in a conflict with Iran. Not a single commander or planner in NATO thinks for a single second, Israel would need NATO’s support. The crazy old man’s threat to the UN may make the Progressive Liberals worry, but I can assure you, that same threat worries the Iranian military commanders far more. Let’s see what  idiotic statement comes from Tehran next. PS. I would have loved to have seen the looks on the Iranian Commander's faces when the old man came up with this idea. 

IRAN’S NEXT ROUND OF CASUALTIES:  

          It’s been a few days, but here is the short version of what is taking place with Iran. It appears the so called widening rift between Moscow and Tehran is growing, as if there was ever some Bromance going on. Israel seems to have informed Moscow an Iranian, Hezbollah combat force anywhere near the Israeli border is a legitimate target. Moscow believes the Israelis are uncompromising on this point. Moscow makes the statement, “ All forces should leave Syria”. The attempt there to address the US issue. Problem is, that issue has already been addressed and the compromise has been made between the US and Russia. Therefore, the statement was made for the government of Syria. Problem. Tehran doesn’t agree and they have grown tired of Moscow acting as if they will determine the future of Syria. No Bromance there! Next comes the issue of the Iranian forces not doing as Moscow stated. Did Moscow really think they would? No. Does that open the door for Moscow not supporting them when the IDF strikes them? Yes, why do you think the statement was made. CYA, that’s why. Now, Tehran may be delusional, they may think their forces in Syria can protect themselves, but the Iranian military commanders know better. The bodies being flown back to Iran are proof enough. So, do you order the units to move away from the border or do you put on Syrian uniforms? Problem. The IDF knows this trick and that won’t save the Iranian units. Whose Idea was that, not a military commander’s. Now, the next phase of the problem comes up. The IDF is reported to be building forces along the Syrian border near Quneitra. Buildup? Maybe. For weeks now, the story has been the building Iranian, Hezbollah footprint in the same area. Why would the Syrian government announce this IDF “buildup”? Is it to justify attacking it? That would be insane. The attempt is to once again, place the aggressive blame on Israel. Again, the next part of the problem. Israel doesn’t care if an aggressive label is placed on them. If they move to neutralize the Iranian threat in that region, then that is exactly what they will do.  The next phase of the problem, from the viewpoint of Tehran, is the fact that if Israel moves on the Quneitra area, the US will back them every step of the way. With military support? No. they don’t need to. The IDF doesn’t need the US’s help in crushing Iranian units in Syria. Oh, and by the way, they don’t need NATO’s help ether. What a stupid statement that was, but that’s another story. So Boys and Girls, here is the scorecard. Iran is on the brink of once again getting its assets in Syrian crushed by the IDF and once again, Moscow will sit back and watch. Resupply, it’s a lucrative business in the Middle East. 

          Well, there you have it. The simplistic version of this weeks tension between Israel and Iran….oh ya….and Moscow!

The IDF needs to drop leaflets on the Quneitra area that say only one thing.  “ RUN”!