A NORTH KOREAN GENERAL AT THE OLYMPICS? WAIT……WHAT?

               General Kim Yong-chol is heading to the closing ceremony for the Winter Olympics? Can you imagine the South Korean military leaderships reaction when told this? A North Korean General, one that has strong standing with the Little Fat Man’s family, is not only set foot on South Korean land, but he is going to be seen around the world at the Olympics’ closing event! Yes, he is the head of “inter-Korea relations”, but what Spy Master wouldn’t want to have this position? Does he come in uniform? I would bet he does, but if the intent is to show a so called “warming” relationship with the South, something the South Korean Generals rolls their eyes at, then he may not. The North Koreans are skilled at the art of messaging and the message this man showing up in South Korea is a bold move. Again, I understand he leads the North’s inter-Korea relations program and every progressive Liberal in the world would completely accept his arrival in South Korea because of his current title. The title the South Korean military recognizes is Spy Master. So, what is the message the North is looking to show the world?

Message inside the message:

               Would the North love to drive a wedge between the South and the US? You bet. Would the Chinese and the Russians support this concept? Yep. Does showing up in South Korea during the most watch event in the world help that cause? Yep. Talk about cheap airtime! So, that’s it? The goal here is to drive a wedge between the South and the US? Does the North really think by showing up on international TV, live, the world will begin to believe the two are moving towards reunification? You can bet the progressive Liberals will believe exactly that. Many of them have already come out and said so. Let’s go back to the issue of the North Korean General’s attire. Would the North Korean population even recognize him if he was in civilian clothing? Hell. Do they even get to see the Olympics? You can bet they will be shown the closing ceremony with their beloved General being entertained by the West. Can he pose like Augustus Caesar as the athletes pass by? Well,  I say this, as trusted as he may be to the Kim family, he better not come off as too prestigious or he may find himself strapped to a rocket like a few of his fellow Generals. The power North Korean General providing over the largest multinational event in the world. Is that the message? Is that the picture the Little Fat Man wants? Who will he sit next to? Who will be seen talking to him? Who will he meet with before or after the event? Is the message on of power cloaked behind the image of peace? Is the wedge targeted to a specific group? Is this all about creating unrest in the South Korean youth? Does anyone think the North is really reaching out to the South? Just how upset are the South Korean military leaders? How can they disrupt what they have to see as an attempt to destabilize the South?

Leveraging Paranoia:

               The art of diplomatic messaging is a dangerous tool when executed by paranoid artist. If you can’t trust the ones working for you or along side of you, then what are your real feelings when you send one of them to a worldwide event? How much does the Little Fat Man truly trust the good General? He will appear to the world as a leader as all cameras focus in on him given where he comes from and who he is. Can he show up on scene too large? Can he stoke the paranoia that runs deep in his Dearly Beloved Leader? Can someone else stoke the Little Fat Man? Can this scripted stunt be turned upside down? Oh….you bet and here is just how that might happen.

               Is someone watching the General, someone from North Korea? You can bet every North Korean agent at the Olympics and more have been tasked with tracking who attempts to see him or even say a word in passing to him. Approach. Will someone approach the good General? Perhaps that is not necessary. Perhaps all that is needed is for it to appear he has been approached? Rumors. Rumors have General strapped to rockets in North Korea. How hard would it be for the US and it’s friends in the South Korean military to paint a picture the Little Fat Man cannot ignore? How would China or South Korea possibly avoid a conflict on the Korean Peninsula? Coups! As I’ve said in the past, a few key Generals here and there and the next thing you know, the Little Fat Man and his Aunt are sleeping with the Fishes. Think the Chinese haven’t plotted how to avoid a major war on their border? Do you think the man who was in charge of the North Koran Intelligence program would not have contact with the South and China? Just how much can this General be trusted? Is there a General in North Korea that can truly be trusted, really trusted? It’s not too difficult to make paranoid people react. It’s not too difficult to make this stunt at the Olympics completely backfire on the Little Fat Man.

Dear General Chol;

               Be very careful who you are seen talking with or even make eye contact with, or you might become the next North Korean General reassigned into the space program.Perhaps the second North Korean to land on the Sun?

AFRIN SCORECARD. ARE THE OTTOMAN FORCES STUCK?

               Rumors of losses for the Turks in Afrin continue to grow. How can Egodan possibly talk of moving towards the next objective if he can’t win the first one? Have the Turks limited their operations in Afrin? Yes. Will it require more effort to take Afrin? Well, he could just declare he has cleansed the area and be done with it. I mean, think about it. Who in Turkey is going to question him? Now, YouTube clips showing up all over the place showing the Kurd’s still in control would not serve Egodan well, but then again, he could just ban the use of YouTube in Turkey if he wanted. He’s that kind of guy.  The bottom line is, things are not going well for the Turks and everyone is beginning to see it. If that’s not bad enough, Pro Assad forces, code for Iranian backed forces, have now begun to enter the city. You, know, Iran’s version of Russia’s “Little Green Men”. Little Green Men! It seems that is the new trend now days. Funny. What is old is new again! Pro Assad forces to the rescue of the Kurds, the same Kurd groups those Pro forces were fighting for the past seven years. Yep. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend, at least for a little while and then I’ll kill him! Scorecards. Everyone keeps trying to figure out the scorecards for the region. Baseball scorecards are done in pencil and that is for a reason. The region’s scorecard is no different.

What’s next?

               A few days ago, I made the comment the hands of the Persians are all over this issue in Afrin. Are the Iranians doing so at the behest of Moscow or are they doing so to agitate the Russians? Does it really matter? Oh ya. You bet it does. As I said above, what is old is new again. That holds true with the Western / US / abandonment of the Kurds. Is that what the West / US / has done? Have they abandon the Kurds yet again? Could the Kurds have possibly been so naïve to think   the West / US/ wouldn’t at some point leave them to die? What’s that old saying, “fool me once, shame on you…..fool me twice, shame on me”. Did that abandonment result in the Kurds making a deal with Iran? I say Iran because we all know Assad doesn’t make decesions for Syria anymore. One Puppet Master, Moscow, is giving one set of instructions by the strings. The problem for Assad is, he has two sets of strings. So, that’s it? The Kurds are reluctant allies with Iran as well as climbing back in bed with the Russians? Is Moscow willing to see Pro Assad forces, run by Iran, going into battle with Turkey? Can Iran ether knowingly or unknowingly play the “Good Cop, Bad Cop” game with the Russians? What is the goal? What is the end-state of this ploy? Do the Russians want Iran to have a stronger voice in the affairs of Syria? No. Are the Russians willing to let the Iranians think they are showing their influence in Syria? Perhaps. Is the idea of seeing a major member of NATO, on paper only, slide into a conflict with the Assad government? How do they limit the outcome? How does Russia continue to delegitimize NATO, yet keep Turkish forces from attacking locations in Syria with Russian assets on them? No matter what is actually taking place, here is the real question. Can Moscow/ Putin / or DC or anyone else truly predict the actions of the new Sultan? Can the Ottoman Empire, as Egodan sees it, be counted on to show restraint? What if the Pro Assad forces bloody the nose of the Turks? Do any of these folks truly have the ability to predict the response of a person as unstable as Egodan? The Pro Assad forces are moving into Afrin. The Turks are stuck in the Afrin “mud” already. Let’s see just how bad the Sultan wants to save face.

CONFRONTATION IN AFRIN? DAZED AND CONFUSED!

If you are confused about the scenario that may be about to play out in Northern Syria, I would remind you to remember one key issue. From day one, Egodan’s so called “relationship” with Putin had one goal. Manipulation. From day on of Putin’s so called “relationship” with Egodan had on goal. Manipulation. To be honest, just about every “relationship” between nations is about manipulation. With this in mind, let me take a few minutes and see if I can shed a little light on what some are starting to panic about. Is there about to be a confrontation between Syrian forces, forces backed by Russia, and Turkish forces, A NATO member? Let’s talk about it.

Sides:

               The Turks have continued to rub up against the Russian as they look over their shoulder to see if the US is upset yet.

The Russians continue to go along with the relationship as they look for signs of damage to NATO.

The Russians continue to support the Eye Doctor, really his Brother, in Damascus and watch the US’s reaction.

The Sunnis in Syria still hate the Assad regime and the Sunni / Shia struggle shows no signs of slowing down in the region.

Nobody, Iranians, Turks, Iraqis, Syrians wants to see a Kurdistan truly come to a level of recognition. Some may tell the Kurds they support their dream, but they are not willing to support the effort much beyond words, unless they can arm them to kill a common enemy. Yep. Use the Kurds as a proxy. The issue that has been taking place for decades.

The Israelis are ever so close to pushing Iran back out of Syria and they have let Moscow know their intent.

All this takes place as the US worries about whole stole whose email and what crime those emails may have proven. Preoccupied you ask? More like Dazed and Confused if you ask me.

Chances:

               So, what are the real chances the Turks and the Syrians will come to blows? What is the sentiment in Moscow of this predicament? Does Putin sit there and steam over Egdan trying to play him? Is Putin the kind of guy you think you can “play”? Well, Egodan seems to think so. Russia’s intent is to drive a wedge between NATO and Turkey. That plan has been moving forward exceptionally well. Now, Egodan starts to make his play. He dares the Russians to continue to support Assad. He dares Moscow to the level he to may fire on Assad’s forces. Where does this all lead to? We may get an answer in as few as the next 48 hrs.  Are the Syrian forces truly moving into a possible confrontation with Turkey when everyone knows the Russians pull the strings in Damascus? Does Russia see their plan for destabilizing NATO fall apart by siding with Assad in a fight? Who else may have a hand in this event that looks to be about to upset the Russian Master Plan? Look to the Persians! Something I will write about soon.

PUTIN AND ARAMCO? A “TECTONIC SHIFT” AND BETRAYAL  IN THE WORKS. 

               I fully intended on addressing the critical meeting that is taking place between the US and Turkey today. As important as that meeting may be, shy of actual open conflict breaking out between the US and Turkey, I came upon a topic that is far more important.

http://www.atimes.com/article/putin-prefers-aramco-trumps-sword-dance/

If Mr. Bhadrakumar is correct, and believe me, this is a topic the US intelligence world keeps a very close eye on, and a “deal” is about to be made between the Russians, partnered with the Chinese, and Saudi Arabia / Aramco, then the he is correct. Tectonic. That is exactly what this “deal” will be. For the Russian / Chinese partnership to actually buy their way into the largest oil and gas firm in the world, for the Russians to pull this alliance away from the US / West, yes…….. that is Tectonic! Mr. Bhadrakumar covers the potential ramifications of this potential partnership, so I will not spend time addressing the business side of this issue.  Although the issue of future military hardware operations is covered in this piece, the dangers to Saudi on that topic will be important to the kingdom. I’ll come back to that point, but first, let me address the area not covered in this article. It’s the question that typically leads any intelligence briefing on a topic this important.

Why?

               Why would the Russians love to have such a deal? Does it allow them to have a nose under the Aramco tent? Yes. Just think of the access to data, life span of reserves as just one example. How about access to manipulation of processes inside the corporation such as the physical movement of oil and gas. These are just minor examples. The actual “why” is far more strategic. What is the lifeblood of the Russian economy? Fuel, oil, gas! What is the commodity the Chinese are in an every increasing quest for? Fuel. The primary controller of world fuel. If that is not a goal of the Tsar, then I’ve missed my mark on him for years now. So, the “why” seems to be very clear. It’s about power. It’s about control and influence. With the “why” out of the way, let’s move onto the next question. Will it happen? Will the Russians and the Chinese actually get their hand on a percentage of a 2 TRILLION Dollar business?

The Catch:

               Is there a “catch”? You bet there is; there always is! Let’s see. The Russians are the largest backers of the Iranians. The Iranians are currently, I stress currently, a mortal enemy of the Saudi Kingdom. So, the Russians show up with Chinese money and state they would like to buy part of the largest corporation in the world. I wonder what the conditions of even considering such an offer might be? Does anyone really think that Saudi Arabia, the future King, would trade 100 Billion dollars’ worth of their prize corporation to a nation that supports Saudi’s enemy?  Don’t you have to wonder how the Tsar pitched that concept? The story goes, a phone call took place between Putin and the King, the young one I bet. How in the world did Putin put this bid in perspective that even gives them a chance to succeed? If you said, he placed the Iranian card on the table, then you get credit for knowing the leader of Russia better than most. Yes. Absolutely! I would bet that is exactly what the Tsar did, only I have a twist that you need to contemplate.

Regime Change:

               Would the Russians walk away from all of it’s investments in Iran for the sake of a small percentage of Aramco? No. Would the Russians arrange or let’s say facilitate a change in Iran that would be more acceptable to Saudi? Oh yes……..BINGO! Amongst the “friends” of Russia, who serves at the pleasure of the Tsar? All. All serve at the pleasure of the Tsar and that includes the dying old man in Tehran. Who is the IRGC really beholding to? Who gives them what they need? Who makes sure they are the true power in Iran? Yep. What is behind the unrest in Iran? The West? Well, maybe to some extent. Who has the foresight to understand the skill craft of perpetuation tension amongst the population all the while as the Iranian government blames the West / US? Why, who might even be clever enough to quietly work a backdoor deal with the West / US to help facilitate unrest in Iran? Does that sound like something a ex KGB Boss could dream up? Let me simplify things. Putin knows the relationship with Iran is the real stumbling block to a deal like the Aramco event. He knows he can’t just walk away from Iran, although, if they keep interfering with Moscow’s plans in Syria, he may change his mind. What needs to be said to the Saudis? What words may compel the Kingdom to allow this Russian / China consortium to win the prize? “There is a change coming in Iran. A change we are facilitating and when this change takes place, the issues between the two of you will be solved”. Is that the kind of thing the Tsar could say to the future King? Yep! Are the Saudi’s clever enough to inquire how this “change” might take place and when? Absolutely. In the shadows of the Iranian old man, hide ambitious dreamers. Some who have already been in power and some who dream of power. More importantly, those who hold not only power, but the admiration of many of the Iranian citizens. The old man is dying, and everyone knows it. How will the next ruler of Iran change the course of not only Iran, but the region? You can bet this topic has had many glasses of prime Vodka consumed over it. Meanwhile, the Dragon smiles at it’s so called partner and spends a few dollars…………………….. and waits!

CHINA AND LATIN AMERICA. NEW “SILK ROADS” OR A DRAGON’S LAIR?

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-new-silk-roads-reach-latin-america/

               I’ve said this before and I will say it again, I often enjoy reading the articles by Pepe Escobar. The one I’ve placed a link to is one of his better commentaries on the continued progress of the Dragon. I will admit I take a much more ominous approach to the actions of China than he does, but then again, he and I have very different backgrounds when it come to the subject of the Dragon.

               The BRIC and the ‘New Silk Road’, two topics that no one in DC should take lightly when it comes to Latin America. Several years ago, I had a conversation with an individual in the intelligence community on the topic of the BRIC. It was a new concept then and people were investigating its capabilities and structure in an attempt to understand why the alliance was taking place. Most were puzzled that China and India would seem to hold hands on a vast economic venture. Some of us, me, thought it was nothing more than another very advanced weapon the Chinese were developing for future use. In the end, the so called, “Experts” came to the conclusion the BRIC was a fad and the whole concept would just fade away under the weight of the World Bank. The World Banking Organization. Now that was and is a weapon system the Dragon understood. It’s fairly clear to me now, the BRIC was never intended to become anything more than the foundation for the real goal; the New Silk Road concept / Belt and Roads / you take your pick.

New Roads to where?

               The New Silk Road, a topic I’ve written about before, will provide improved trade and will make the nations that take part richer! When you get right down to it, that’s the sale’s pitch. Easy money, just sign here and don’t bother with the fine print! “The rising tide lifts all the boats”. John F. Kennedy. Interesting quote from a family that made its fortune as smugglers during the US prohibition. So, how does message come across in Latin America? Can the Dragon really counter the US by taking large hunks of the Monroe Doctrine off the table? Do any of the people in Latin America even know what the Monroe Doctrine is? Look, China can put as much lipstick on the Pig called “ The New Silk Road” as they want. The reality is, a large enough group in Latin America see exactly what the Dragon is up to. It’s not about lifting the boats of Latin America, it’s about countering the US in the backyard called the Monroe Doctrine. China’s not out to build boats, it’s out to manipulate the region. Yes, the same theory behind the Monroe Doctrine. I never said I was a fan of that US policy to begin with. So where does this new road lead the people of Latin America?

A story the people remember:

               I remember reading an article about the Chines opening an rather large business, I think a copper mine, in Brazil. At first, the government and the works were ecstatic. The jobs! It was all about the jobs. Why, the boats will be floating higher in no time! Then, then the Chinese set the rules. No days off, no sick leave, no family time, no vacation and the idea of only working 40 hours a week was insulting. Management? Well, management was to be exclusively for Chinese. In short, the great news turned out to be the same old song; exploitation! Yep, most of those boats sunk! When the locals and even some of the government officials began to challenge what rules the Chinese had placed on the business adventure, the Chinese had only one answer. ‘If you don’t like it, we will move the operation to another country in the area. I suppose that’s better than the old days of sending in the Pinkertons, but the Dragon’s message was clear. “It’s our money and it’s our rules”

How to counter:

               One of the greatest challenges the US will have with this Chinese initiative in Latin America is history. That Monroe Doctrine thing. How much did that really help the Latin American boats? How much of it was about the US staking it’s claim on everything to it’s South? If you know even the recent history, the last thirty or forty years, between Latin America and the US, it should not surprise you several nations in the region may be more than willing to enter the Dragon’s lair and the truth is, it won’t take much to snap the US’s head back into a position to look over it’s shoulder. Just how sensitive is the US to this potential Dragon’s lair to the South? Well, when the Soviets were attempting to do the same as the Dragon, disrupt the US’s backyard, we suddenly had “Operatives” all over the region. In the end, who is more frightening to the people of Latin America. The Gringos and their Monroe Doctrine or the Dragon and all of its promised boats? We shall see.

DID THE RUSSIANS LOSE “LITTLE GREEN MEN” IN A BATTLE LAST WEEK?

               It seems the rumors are more than just rumors now. One thing is for sure, US and Russian intelligence knows exactly who was killed last week and how. It appears the releasable answer is going to be, they were Russian Contractors; you now…………..like the “Little Green Men” tactic in the Ukraine. Does this approach prevent to some extent the shocking reality of US forces fighting Russian forces? Yes. Why else would the “Little Green Men” concept have been invented? Is there a rather murky relationship between regular military forces and so-called contractors? Just watch the movie about the events in Bengasi and you will have your answer. If the story holds true, then over 200 Russians, most likely Special Forces, were killed by the US airstrikes last week. Does anyone truly believe Putin sees these deaths as anything other than losses at the hands of the US and its Allies? Does the title of “Contractor / Little Green men”, really keep this issue from becoming worse? No. The answer is no. Do the events of last week have anything to do with what took place with the Israelis in Syria just a few days later? Now then, that is where this story may get very interesting.

Wait for the other shoe to drop!

I’ve used this before, but an old friend, FBI type, use to tell me, “Sometimes you have to wait for the next move to understand the first one”! Let’s assume this is the case. To me, the question becomes, who initiated the first move? Does ether side really know for sure? On the US side, the answer may sound something like this, “Well, the forces of Assad, supported by the Russians, fired on positions they knew our forces were in the area of. We had no choice but to defend ourselves. That’s our message, we will defend ourselves”! Now, on the Russian / Syria side, the story probably goes like this.  “Terrorist were operating in that area, on Syrian land, and our actions were against those Terrorist groups. If some nation was there in support of those Terrorist, then that is a choice they made, and they must live with”! Now, here is where the rule of proportionality comes into play. If the Russians lost over 200 Russian citizens in just one attack by the US, how do they answer? What message do they send to DC? Could it be the message was, ‘We can make the region a complete nightmare for everyone if you continue to be involved in the Syrian Civil War’.

The IDF as a version of “Little Green Men”.

               Syria is a proxy war, and everyone knows this. Who will determine the future of the region, a region vital to the heart of the Russian economy, fuel. Up until last week, it was a given both the Russians and the West understood the dangers of direct conflict in Syria. Was the downing of the Israeli fighter the response to what took place just a few days earlier? I can see the logic of that theory if someone states it. Little Green Men are proxy fighters. Israel is a modified version of a proxy for the US. The problem seems to be, the transparency of the proxy fight is quickly becoming irrelevant. One last level of ambiguous fighting may be left. Iran vs. Israel. The problem with that play is what happens when one of the two starts to lose? I hope I was right with my last post. I hope the event that took place between the Iranians and Israel was based upon the Persians showing the Russians they are not the only ones determining the future of Syria. But, if I’m wrong and the Little Green Men scenario  is true, then the ultimate outcome could be far worse than 200 Russians killed.

SYRIA / IRAN / ISRAEL / RUSSIA. WHAT TOOK PLACE?

It’s obvious that something took place a few days ago that caught many key players by surprise. What happened has been written and talked about in great detail. The most important question is still out there. Why? Why did it take place? What changed? Israel has been flying strike missions into Syria for the past several years, even after the Russian air defense units showed up. Have Israeli jets been locked in on in the past? Yes. Have they been fired at? Yes, but without proper “support”. So, an Iranian drone, one modeled after the one they captured from the US, flies into Israeli airspace and gets shot down. New news? No. It’s happened before. As the story goes, after this airspace violation, the IDF decides to strike the command center where the drone was controlled from. Unusual? Have they struck the command center for the previous drones? Where the other drones Iranian controlled or more simpler versions flown from Gaza; that’s a key element here. Did the Israelis understand the Iranian controlled drone, one they identified as far more advanced than previous models, was being missioned from a site on the base named T4, a base heavily populated with Russian operations and thus, defended by Russian ADA units. Was this something new? Had the Israelis flown through Russian controlled air defense sites in the past? Yes!  Had Netanyahu warned the Russians Israel would not tolerate Iranian / Hezbollah / increased pressure on Israel’s border with Syria? Yes. Did the Russians believe him? Yes. So, back to the initial question. Why did this event take place?

Who is sending what message?

               In an attempt to find a possible explanation to what took place, let me go back to a topic I’ve harped on for several years now. Are the Persians thankful for the Russian’s actions in Syria? No! Do the Persians trust the Russians? No. Is the love affair between the Russians and the Persians real? Well, let’s just refer to it as a marriage of convenience. Now, all last month, the rumors once again began to fly about on how the Russians were coming to an agreement with the US and “others” on the future of Syria. Those that didn’t belong there would have to leave, and the transition of power would take place afterword. Same old story with the same old dead end results, with the exception this time of the Ottomans. The Russian master plan for Syria would have resulted in the Kurds further grinding out what would become Kurdistan. Kurdistan and the Kurds. The number one reason the Turks reacted to the Civil War in Syria in the fist place. Somehow, this time around, when the Sultan caught on to the end game the Russians were attempting to develop for Syria, the threat of Kurdistan became unacceptable. That was a very good indication the Turks were not truly part of the problem solving formula designed in Moscow. The consequences of this revitalized rumor was “Operation Olive Branch”. By the way, I love the concept of a combat operation having the title of “Olive Branch”! That must have been a joke to someone. So that was it? The Russians starting pushing a plan for finding an end-state in Syria and that plan was one that had not been acceptable to a major player in the region? Was that the only “No” vote? Nope, of course not. 

               Iran’s message reaction to the Russian planning, like the Turks, has not changed. The future of Iran is tied to the future of Syria and Iraq. The concept of a Kurdistan may not be as volatile to the Persians, but it is a common thread between them and the Ottomans and Syria and Iraq. The Turks may have answered by launching Operation Olive Branch, but the Iranians has continued their response as well. What could possibly impact the Russian vision for the region and even the Russians themselves, more then to push a confrontation between Israel? Just how upset would the Russians become if Iran shaped a scenario where Israel would strike targets in Syria defended or even controlled by Russia. What would happen if Iran instigated the IDF into responding in a way that forced the Russians to respond? In reality, it’s been going on for over two years now. Iran’s movement of critical weapons to Hezbollah, a Hezbollah that is doing everything it can to prepare for the next war in Israel, has placed Russia in a position it does not like. Continues air attacks inside Syria, a Syria that the Russians have clamed they control the skies of. How many times have people said, “ How can the IDF strike in Syria the way they do and the Russians don’t respond”? Who has truly set this stage? Yes. In my opinion, it’s the Iranians and the Russians along with Israel know it. Why else would Netanyahu travel to Moscow last month? Iran is forcing the issue of Russia’s influence over the future of Syria.

               Was Operation Olive Branch the perfect excuse for the IDF to step up their game inside Syria? Yes. Did the Iranians understand that is exactly what they needed? Yes. Do the Russians know they are being played by the Iranians? Yes. Is there going to be a conflict between Russia and Israel? No! How will the Russians deal with the actions of the Persians? Let me just make this comment. You don’t want to be on the receiving end of Mr. Putin’s anger! If Iran wishes to upset the Russians by forcing a conflict with Israel, they need to be very…..very….careful. If Iranian units find the Russians distancing themselves from them on the ground in Syria, they better be able to take the hint on what will happen next.

 IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH AND CASE OF MONKEY SEE….MONKEY DO!

The Turks are now coming up on a month into their operation to neutralize any idea of an independent Kurdish state along the Turkish border and if you don’t believe that is what is taking place, then you should probably spend your time reading something else. I’m not going to spend time addressing how this operation is going, but I am going to ask one simple question. Did the Ottoman’s invasion of Syria provide the cover for Israel to move against Hezbollah forces in Syria? If it’s acceptable for, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US to carve out a slice of Syrian soil for the sake of neutralizing a potential enemy, then why not Israel? Yes, I fully understand the IDF has been attacking targets in Syria, but an actual ground operation has been out of the question. So, is it out of the question now? If Iran’s proxy military, Hezbollah, has been allowed to establish itself inside of Syria, close to the Israeli border, does Israel not hold the right to neutralize this threat? Someone tell me again why the Turks pushed into Syria? Here is an even more important question. Do the Israelis plan on executing just such an event?

Warnings to those that matter:

Netanyahu holds a meeting with Putin. As soon as that meeting is over, the Russians dispatch a high-level team to Israel…………. Quickly.  Rumor has it, and it’s a good rumor, the message given by Israel to Russia was blunt. “We will not accept Hezbollah or Iranian forces to threaten Israel from its border with Syria”! This message was also delivered to DC. Then Netanyahu made it clear to the rest of the world in an open statement. Again, someone remind what the excuse was for Turkey’s movement into Syria? Did anyone take these statements seriously? Let me answer that this way. When was the last time you witnessed a high-level team be dispatched within hours of a meeting between two leaders? Was the Russian reaction to Israel’s message noteworthy? You bet it was. Had there been a rumor of Russian striking a deal over the Syrian mess that would lead to Iranian and other forces leaving Syria? Yes. Was Tehran consulted on this process? You can bet they were not, unless the statement itself was disingenuous.

Iran sends its own message:

               Let me go backwards for a minute. We must remember the goals of the Persians in Syria and the region are not the goals of the Russians. The relationship between the Russians and the Iranians is based upon a matter of convenience. The Russians are convenient to the Persians, but only for so long. The Persians are convenient to the Russians, but only until the greater issue of Eastern Europe is settled. For the Russians, in the end, the Middle East will continue to be what it has been for almost 100 years, a source of fuel. But, this time the control of this area will come from Moscow, not DC. There use to be a war plan for fighting the Soviet Union in the Middle East for just this reason, but that is a discussion for another day.

               Iran gets a vote. That is the message when Hezbollah Commanders are seen with Iranian leadership along the Syrian border with Israel. Do the Russians approve or disapprove of such events? Does anyone in Tehran truly care what the Russians think? Yes, the courtship is as it has always been, on shaky ground. Iran has no intention of leaving Syria’s future to anyone else other than Iran. So, the question becomes, is Iran willing to risk the future of their own nation for the sake of influence in Syria? Just how did the Tehran interpret the communications between Israel and Russia? Did Netanyahu travel to see the Tsar to judge his true intentions in Syria? Is Russia telling the truth when they state all foreign parties will leave Syria?  Is Tehran paying attention? Was this statement by Russia just another complicated twist of the truth? Just in the past two days, stores have been circulating detailing the inspection of positions inside of Syria along the Israeli border; Inspections by high ranking Iranian officials and Hezbollah Commanders. The Middle East is a part of our world where bluffs and hidden meanings are the norm. Trust me when I say, Israel in not bluffing! Mobilization of the IDF is a very distinguishable event. Be watching closely for this noticeable sign, but don’t count on it. Surprise is the key to victory in 21^st Century warfare.