THE RUMOR OF A “BLOODY NOSE” FOR NORTH KOREA:

I’m Shifting away from the Middle East to cover the other slice of the world that needs to be addressed. I’ve read a great deal about this “bloody nose” rumor and I will admit the rumor seems to be growing. So, the question becomes, is the rumor growing because the events required to make such operation take place are actually coming together, or is the rumor being spread, effectively I might add, to place even further pressure on the Chinese. Yes, I have not come off my theory of the Chinese having a plan to deal with the little fat guy when the time comes. The problem remains, when does China become convinced that time is here? When do the Chinese truly believe the US is going to pull the trigger? How do they judge the difference between a bluff and true pending action? Is it the movement of military hardware? What hardware would they need to see being put into place to change their mind? Wouldn’t they have to know the tactical requirements of the operation to properly evaluate what is moving? How do they truly judge between a bluff and a pending event? That is the formulary China must hope they can come up with. Given the possible outcomes of this so called, “bloody nose”, how sure must China be as they attempt to gauge the intentions of the US? Just how worried is the Dragon? It seems The Donald is getting the hang of this World Leader stuff. The Donald’s poker face is truly beginning to take shape.

Bloody Nose and the unforeseen partners:

Let’s move onto the issue of this “bloody nose” rumor. If it’s more than a rumor and there really is a plan for a tactical strike, and I would be you there is such a contingency plan, then what are the possible results? Now, there is a topic every so called “expert” is out to make money on as quick as they can. Can a limited strike on North Korea, a nation controlled by a madman, not have repercussions on the civilian population? Can the damage actually be held to a level most people are willing to accept? Can such an event take place on China’s border without the Dragon losing face globally? Would they just sit back and let it happen? If you have read my post for the past few years, then you know what I’m about to say. Yep, back to one of my favorite games.

What If?

What if Bloody Nose had a partner that no one was aware of? What if Bloody Nose had a role for the Dragon? I’ve said it for years now, but I will say it again and again. The Chinese have a plan for dealing with unstable leadership in North Korea. What if the US strikes the nuclear facilities in North Korea not with the intention of making them unusable for years to come, but for the purpose of neutralizing the immediate threat they pose, and this takes place as the Chinese move to replace the North Korean government? Sound outrageous? Not really, at least not to me. Let’s look at a few hard facts that both sides of this problem completely understand.

1.      The ultimate goal of China is to have the US’s excuse for having large military capabilities in the region nullified. Why would the US leave its forces in a unified Korea? How much pressure could China place on the US for wishing to do so? After the North Korean issue is resolved, why would China not strive to solve, peacefully, the issues in the South China Seas? Instead of threating war, just spend money to the point that nations like Japan and the Philippines can’t resist the profit line. Oh, and if you think that is not an approach for the Chinese, then you’ve not done your homework with the One Belt One Road initiative.  Simply put, remove the reason for US forces to be on the Korean Peninsula and at the same time, toss as much money as you can at the other nations in the region.

2.      From the US standpoint, especially the military leadership, how appealing is a plan that doesn’t call for the same mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan? A plan that doesn’t require an occupation force or even an offensive ground force. A plan that lets the US utilize the its existing forces inside South Korea to defend South Korea only? A plan that calls for Chinese ground units to move into North Korea, and doing so after the nuclear sights are struck and key North Korean Generals, who are own the Chinese payroll, make their move as well? Yes. A US strike with a simultaneous Chinese manipulated Coup?

The Danger with the Coup idea:

               As outlandish as this concept of mine may sound, stranger things have happened in this world. Yes, there are dangers to this idea. For one thing, the US military, more specifically the US Army, may not agree. I once remember a time when the US Army was absolutely adamant the war in Iraq, this time around ,could not be won with just the Air Force. Why, everyone who ever studied modern military theory knew you cannot defeat your enemy strictly from the sky. Pay no attention to that event called Desert Storm. How in the world could the nation justify a large, modern, standing Army if it’s wars were won from the air? I mean, how could the Army convince Congress to spend money on them?  Why, they might go the way of the Navy’s Battleship theory? Am I being sarcastic here? No. Not really! An Army of occupation is “old think”. Strike your enemy. Neutralize their ability to do you harm and then be prepared to strike them again if needed. That will be the future of the 21^st century warfare. That will be the economic reality of the West. So, you see, in the end, making a Coup plan with a potential rival just doesn’t make good investment sense for those who make BILLIONS on developing and selling military hardware. Yes, there is a danger to finding a smart way to deal with North Korea. The Chinese may end up having a stronger position on the issue of US military presence in the region.  On top of that, how in the world are the companies that depend on military hardware sales going to make money if someone finds a way to defeat a threat without dozens of Divisions of very expensive ground forces. Lives? Yes you may save lives with this new way of thinking, but all those corporate giants know full well brave young men and women will march into battle if called upon to do so. There is a new way for nations to defend themselves and marching patriotic people into a meatgrinder is not the way. A Bloody Nose sounds terrifying for one reason. Those that warn of such an event look at warfare with “old think”! 

THE OTTOMANS MOVE INTO SYRIA.

               Not the first time the Turks have pushed forces into Syria, but this time is different. Now, from day one of the Syrian Civil War I’ve been talking about the one true issue the Turks could not lose sight of. The creation of some version of a territory named, Kurdistan. It was the universal worry for Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq. It was the one issue they all had in common. None of them wanted to see a slice of land carved out for the Kurds that would lead the world to using the title of “Kurdistan”. The Ottomans, The Persians and the Arabs may not have the same vision of the future, but they do share the nightmare of a Kurdistan. So, what happened? Why now? What made Egodan drive his forces into Northern Syria in a much large operation than in the past?

The Manipulator:

               If you saw this word and the Tsar didn’t come to mind, then you need to keep studying what is taking place in the region. Okay, now, let me answer the question of, “why now”. What has been the goal of the Tsar from day one of the Russian involvement in the Syrian Civil War? Europe, more specifically, Eastern Europe. Yes, the Middle Eastern fuel scenario is very important to the Russians and its true economic engine, fuel. But, the old “buffer zone” of Eastern Europe is the issue that keeps the lights on in Moscow at night.  Eastern European countries, countries that belonged inside the old Soviet Block and their relationship with NATO, that is THE… issue. That has always been the issue and that will be the issue until the scenario is no longer on the Tsar’s plate. If the West intends to destabilize Russia, something the Russians truly believe, then the counter is and has been to destabilize a region that is important to the West. Mass migrations into Europe. The stoking of a religious Civil War, a Civil War that can involve over a BILLION people across the world, these are just two issues the Tsar is deeply involved in; knowing that both of them have an end-state of endangering the day to day peace throughout the globe. If Mother Russia is not to know safety and peace, then no other nation will, especially those that are responsible for the danger to Russia. So how does the Tsar’s pressure on the West lead to a nutcase like Egodan to move such a large force into Syria? How does the Tsar manipulate two NATO nations into a possible confrontation?

NATO vs NATO:

               If there is one strategic goal the Tsar has had in mind as he attempts to counter the Western advancement on Mother Russia, it’s the idea of damaging the NATO alliance. Now, from day one, both Egodan and the Tsar have set a goal of manipulating the each other. First it was the defiant Ottomans shooting down a Russian fighter. Then it was the great kiss and make up that came a year later. Both men looking to advance their own dreams and both men attempting to use the other to achieve those dreams. From the Tsar’s standpoint, he had the golden opportunity to create a huge fracture in the concept of NATO. He fully understood the unstable relationship that had developed between the US and Turkey. The plan was set in Moscow and the intent was clearly exposed. If Russia could drive a wedge between the US and Turkey, then the result would be a less effective NATO. Sounds simplistic, but the plan to exploit this rift was very……….very complex and the EU’s reluctance to accept Turkey as a partner only added fuel to the fire. Moscow played every card almost perfectly. The Migration event that has led to the destabilization of Europe was seen as an action by Egodan and the Turkish government. In fact, it was the Russian military’s arrival in the Syrian Civil War that started the uncontrollable exodus. It was Egodan who realized that by allowing those fleeing the conflict to enter Europe, he could force the EU to come back to the table of acceptance and thus spur the Turkish economy, and economy that was weak at best. But, in the end, it was and has been the Tsar who has been manipulating the Sultan of Turkey, often without the Sultan even realizing what was taking place. As complex as this whole story actually is, the simple fact of the matter is, Turkish forces are moving on ground held by US backed fighters, Terrorist, take your pick! A major NATO partner is threating / warning  / the leader of the NATO alliance. Who stands to gain from this? Take one guess. Look. I have talked about this time and time again. If you want to know why the Russians are so intertwined in the Middle East, look to Poland, look to Ukraine and you will have your answer. Will the forces of one NATO nation fire upon the forces of another NATO nation? That is a dream come true for the Tsar!   Off in the distance, off in the shadows another set of eyes are quietly watching. The Dragon looks on from its cave! 

IRAN.  WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT IS TAKING PLACE? WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

               Took two weeks off again, but boy have I been watching the events in Iran. In my last post, just look the post prior to this one, I raised the question of what is taking place in Iran. Why was the IRGC supporting a form a Persian Nationalism, a form that doesn’t mention Islamic Fundamentalism at all? Is the picture becoming clearer now? To quote a good friend, “if you want to know the reason behind one move, you need to wait for the next one”. Persian Nationalism? If that is the goal, the goal of the IRGC, then what else needs to happen, I mean, other than music videos? How do you make a segment of the population you need to influence moving your desired direction? How do you put energy into the change process? Yep. Protest. Protest over a unified issue or issues. Issues that have a common impact on those you need to change. Issues that strike at the core of day to day living. Food, pay, prices! Get a proportion of a population upset over those topics and you are well on your way to change. So is that it? Is this deepening crisis in Iran all part of the IRGC’s grand plan? Is this new drive towards Persian Nationalism the tool needed to remove the latest version of yet another tyrannical government in Iran? Simply put. Is the current crisis fueled by the IRGC?

The Law:

               If you have been following my post for the past several years, you know how much stock I put into the concept of, “The Law of Unintended Consequences”. Persian Nationalism. That is the tool that will bring about stability in Iran. That is how the IRGC and the Old Men in power, planned to bring the youth of Iran back under their fold. That is how they would get the population to stop pulling away from Tehran. Create nationalistic pride and then convince the population that the preverbal “outside threat” is wanting to tear down this new found Persian pride! It sounds feasible to a guy like me. It’s a theory that could be argued over a few drinks and any typical Department of State Cocktail Dinner. The problem is, perhaps it’s not going according to plan? Perhaps it’s not going anywhere near as planned?

               The Iranian leadership designed some process for one reason, to stay in power and to keep control of their population. A plan can only be developed after key assumptions have been made. So, what if the key assumption on just how bad things were becoming on the streets of Iran were extremely underestimated? What if building the theme of Persian Nationalism was not the tool of control, but the fuel that has caused the fire? Are the streets of Iran’s cities beginning to fill with those who took the concept of Persian Pride to mean something very different than what the designers anticipated? Is Persian Pride turning into, Persian anger? “Where did the money go”? That is a question the Old Men in Tehran did not anticipate. Iran’s government needed something to change before the issues of 2009 appeared again. The Old Men who feared the Arab Spring back in 2011 never stopped worrying about that same Tunisian Virus, yes, I still call it that. They were the founders of the backfire they created in Syria. A backfire that was designed to prevent the flames of the Arab Spring from reaching Iran. They were paranoid then and they were period now; so paranoid that they developed the Persian Nationalism project without truly understanding the potential risk that plan might bring to their doorsteps. Syria was a backfire to prevent the true forest fire. Could it be the Persian Nationalism plan is the backfire that has created it’s own forest fire? It’s not the first time that has happened. Firefighters will tell you that is always the danger of using “backfires”!

What is taking place in Iran could soon rival what took place in 2009, but this is not 2009 in Saudi. This is not 2009 in the US and it’s not 2009 in Moscow.

Yep. This is something new and it’s more dangerous that most realize.

You can bet I will be on this one for the foreseeable future.