PERSIAN NATIONALISM. IS THIS WHERE IRAN IS HEADING?

First off, hats off to Narges Bajoghli for putting this story together. It’s refreshing to see professional opinions, backed by solid investigative research. Dr. Bajoghi is an Academic and we all know my feelings towards most academics who write about the Middle East. Not this time. Dr. Bajoghli nailed this one and I hope someone is taking what she is saying seriously.  A professionally researched story! That’s a concept the US media has forgotten. 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/iran-new-nationalism-religion-politics-trump-saudi-isis.html

Now, over the course of this blog, I think I have addressed the issue of possible Persian Nationalism more than once. So, when I came across Dr. B’s story, it convinced me my hunch from a few years ago was correct. You can’t get a nation that’s average age is under 30 to follow fat old men who insist on you not listening to music, not dancing, not drinking and not surfing the internet. The problem for Iran has been, that is exactly what the old men of the so called “Revolution” still think. It’s not working and it’s not working at an every increasing rate. The fat old men may not want to believe it, but it appears “others” do!

THE IRGC:

By the way, if you have to ask, “What is the IRGC”, then you need to go read some other blog site. Sorry, but going backwards is not my style. Alright. If the fat old men in Tehran can’t see the handwriting on the wall, even after the events of 2009, then what? Answer? The IRGC. From day one I argued with my prior workmates that Qasem Soleimani is Nationalist, not a devout follower of a religious cult. Are the Shia a “cult”? Well, according to my Sunni friends in the region, they are worse than a cult, so for now, that’s the label I’ll give them. By the way, I would love to hear Soleimani’s opinion of those old men when nobody is around!

The concept of finding a way to keep the population of Iran loyal to the government, whomever is running it, is not an issue unique to the Persians. Every nation does this, but it’s only the smart ones that find a way to make it work. Music videos placed on the internet? Yep, that is thinking out of the box and the IRGC is on to something. Do the old men agree with the tactic? Well, here comes a very…..very interesting question and one that Dr. B may not have had time to contemplate. Are they? Are the old men really running the country? Hassan Rouhani is a puppet, for now, who is loyal to the bidding of Khamenei. Khamenei is what? Well, he is old, sick and completely out of touch. I mean, let’s face it, the old man can’t keep a lid on Ahmadinejad even after threatening him with prison. Why? Why is the guy who believes in magic carpets still permitted to run amuck in Iran?  How much day to day authority does Khamenei and his band of religious nutcases truly have? Who is the Luca Brasi for Khamenei? Yep. Soleimani. What’s the history of betrayal by the closest confidants in the Mafia? Who’s making the drive to nationalize the youth of Iran? Who is making music videos based on Persian history and not even mentioning the Islamic movement?

Survival:

To the leadership of the IRGC, and trust me, this is Soleimani, what is more important? The survival of the nation of Iran or the future of a concept of government and religion that suppresses the human spirit? What better tool to help hold a nation together than the vision of past glory? A glory that was not based on crushing individual freedoms, although the Greeks may disagree.

Iran is and has been in real trouble demographically. Yes, the average age issue will level out over time as long as they don’t enter into yet another protracted war. The Arab population of Iran, Persian Iran, is growing and if anyone thinks the Arabs don’t remember the Persians, then they need to go focus on some other part of the world. Iran’s future is in doubt, at least that is what the IRGC believes and the number one mission of the IRGC is to secure the future of Iran and if that means moving away from the so called “revolution” then that is exactly what they will do.

Out of the woods:

Is that it? Are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel on the issue of Iran? I mean, if the IRGC is successful in changing the future of Iran’s youth, doesn’t that mean this whole, Shia / Persian / Sunni  Arab mess might go away? Might Iran become the old Iran again; the Iran of a Secular government?  Remember this old adage. “Be careful what you ask for”! When was the last time a nation went wacky Nationalistic and stayed peaceful? Good old Soleimani. I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Perhaps he has visions of becoming the next God Father!

NORTH KOREA AND CHINESE TIPS ON NUCLEAR WAR

With all the hysteria taking place today over the pending US announcement on the Israeli capital, it’s now wonder a story, like the one I am going to address, is overlooked. By the way, as I stated two days ago, the future King of Saudi could care less about the US decision. Good read his reaction, statements, on line and you will see. It’s about Iran……It’s all about Iran…..everyday….every issue.

Okay. So a state-run newspaper in northeastern China published an article called, “common sense” and this common sense topic is all about how to prepare and respond to the impacts of a nuclear war. Hello? Was that a news story not worthy of coverage in the West? Well, not if you are a low grade, tabloid level political hack machine like most networks in the US. So why did DEBKA pick up on this story? Why did they feel it was at least worthy of placing on their minor events scrolling along the side of their daily page website? I will tell you why. Because the Israelis understand the threat and signs of war. This was not some low level reporters trying to catch the eye of his editor. This was a state run, state controlled newspaper, like all newspapers in China.  Every story published is for a reason. Every word placed in that story is reviewed to insure it meets the needs of the Chinese government. If we understand that, then we have to ask the question, why?

Trends:

Several months ago, the Western media was alert enough to pick up on the movement of Chinese units moving into the area near the North Korean border. Speculation was a hot topic for a few days and then, as always, the news switch to the next big event. Flash forward to December 6^th and the release of this common sense article. Is it just a precautionary measure provided by the cradle to grave government of China? Are the Chinese that worried about such an event in North Korea that they felt compelled to publish guidance? Just how good is the Chinese intelligence when it comes to knowing what is going on inside North Korea? I will tell you this, it’s far better than anything the West has going. Could the Chinese believe a nuclear event is a very real possibility? As a matter of fact, they have even said so in the open press.

So a message, guidance, was provided to the Chinese people who live near the North Korean border. Notice the guidance was not given to the nation as a whole. Does that mean China understands that no matter what takes place in North Korea, it will not lead to a wider conflict or It will not lead to a nuclear war between the US and China? This is precisely the type of analytical work the intelligence agencies work on. Did they see this small bit of news coming out of the region? You bet they did. Is it just another slice of data that helps them predict the future actions in the region? Absolutely.

Yes, on a day when all the talk will be about the capital of Israel, and that is what Jerusalem is to anyone who lives in the world of reality, it will be easy to overlook this small little story from a Chinese Newspaper near the North Korean border. But sometimes, it’s the small things that should be noticed!  

SALEH SAW THE LIGHT……BUT IT TURNED OUT TO BE A “FLASH”.

Well, I’ve been off for the past few weeks catching up on other writing “issues”, but I’m back now.

The topic of the day? Mr. Saleh. It seems Mr. Saleh had yet another change of heart a few days ago. A change of heart as to who should continue to line his pockets! Now, this guy has been out to accomplish one thing from the day he stepped into the spotlight. Saleh for Saleh’s sake. That’s it. It’s as simple as that! Flip flop should have been his nickname, but it seems this time, he flipped right on top of a bomb. Not his fist time by the way! Why did Saleh change his mind? Look to the future King of Saudi for your answer. Did the Iranian backed forces in Yemen blow him up? Yep. Could the Saudi’s have anticipated that event taking place? Yep. What will it change? Nothing. He had called for his followers to “rise up” against the Iranian backed forces, but that speech was nothing more than a way to get paid. How many of his followers jumped ship to fight the forces they had been supported by? You can probably count them on one had. Has his death prolonged the fighting in Yemen? Most likely. His supporters won’t be happy with his manner of death along with his body being displayed.

Speaking of Yemen:

If we step back from the events of Saleh’s death to review what is taking place in the region, we might see a few far more interesting trends. Has Iran become embolden with their advances? Yes. Has the future King of Saudi become more determined to stop these advancements? Yes.  Does this lead to tensions in the region becoming worse? Yes. Is anyone surprised by any of this? No! So, what has changed? What has taken place that could lead anyone to believe things may get better or things may get worse? Here is a hint. What “relationship” seems to be, “coming out of the closet”? If you guessed Saudi and Israel, you are only partially correct. You need to add Egypt into your answer. You need to see the closing of ranks between the Russians and the Turks. You need to see how difficult the task has become for the Russians to hold hands with the Turks and the Iranians at the same time. The short and simple answer is, the sides in the Middle East are continuing to attempt to solidify and I want to stress the word, attempt. Does any partner on either side of the partnerships truly trust any of the others? Of course not. The question becomes, what do you look for? What is the next big event that might push the region to the next level?

The US Embassy in Israel:

The topic is back on the table. Why now? Well, for one thing it’s time for the US to update the legal wavier on the issue. The Donald doesn’t want to do it, but the pressure to do so is high. On top of that rather delicate issue is the rumor The Donald is going to announce the US’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel! Contentious issues? Oh ya. Will it pull apart the pro-Western camp? Nope. The target is Iran / the Persians / and all other issue can be addressed at some point down the road. Period. The future King of Saudi is not going to jeopardize his unofficial, undeclared, collation for the sake of the Palestinians, at least not right now. Much large games are underway. Lebanon. Iraq. Syria and Yemen. Those are the primary points of effort, not the Palestinians.

The timing is right. If the US wants to push the issue of Embassies and Capitals, now is the time to do so. The question becomes why? Why make waves with those issues now? The answer takes us right back to the primary topic. Iran! Israel is being told to sit on their hands while the Iranians and Hezbollah creap closer and closer to the “redline”. “Steady Boys…. Steady….Wait to you see the white of their eyes”! That seems to be the message. The undeclared coalition need a little more time before things may get very interesting. They may also allow the undeclared partner to start the event………….Israel!  But. In the meantime, perhaps the US feels it’s time to toss the Israelis a bone. Perhaps it takes a  little open support to keep the whole game plan moving forward.

Look. Let’s face it. The region is a complete mess and is only going to get worse before it has a chance of getting better. Is there a war in the future? Most likely. Is it in the near future? That is the scary question and the answer is even more frightening. As for Salah. It appears the flip-flop Leader saw the light. Unfortunately for him, that light was the flash of a rather large bomb!