SAUDI ARABIA’S “PURGE” AND HARIRI….. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

I read one story line this weekend that stated, “The week that shook the Middle East”! Well, that may be a far more profound statement then even the author realized. I read through several “Deep Dives” on what was taking place and most of them seemed to be nothing more than the typical “look how smart I am” diatribes banged out on a keyboard just in time to make a few dollars. So, let’s go. Let’s get real…..real simple on this topic and see if we can come up with a prediction for the region.

Prince Salman:

Was the Saudi event a purge?

Yes!

Was it based on the corruption of those taken into custody?

Yes, but then again, if that was the only criteria for being picked up this weekend, the numbers would have been much………MUCH……….higher!

Was the future King moving on those who are opposed to him?

Yes! Not only opposed to him, but willing to support action against him.

Is he done?

Nope!

Do the ones he may come after yet know they are on the “list”?

Yep!

Are they still in Saudi?

I bet not.

Will it work and will this purge solidify the future King’s position?

 Maybe, maybe not, but the odds just went way up!

Will this purge be seen as a positive event to the people of Saudi?

It will to the youth, and Saudi is a very young country. That is the base Salman is playing to.

 Is the West / US / happy with what happened?

Oh…Hell no!

Is the White House okay with what happened?

Most likely. Those that were rounded up had close ties to “old” relationships. New, far more dynamic events have been taking place for the past year and most of them are driven from Moscow.

Prime Minister Hariri:

Did Hezbollah try to kill Hariri last week?

It looks that way? Remember, they blew up his Father in 2005.

Did Hezbollah take this action on their own?

Hezbollah doesn’t take any action on their own. Tehran calls every shot the Hezbollah takes, no kidding….every shot!

 Why? Why kill Hariri?

Easy. They don’t like him and they don’t trust him.

Why?

 Well there is this thing called the Sunni / Shia divide and he is on the wrong side of the divide.

 Why now, why try to kill him now and wouldn’t that look way too obvious?

 Obvious? Yes….it would be obvious, but when has obvious ever been a stumbling block for Iran or Hezbollah?

 So they would kill him just because he is the wrong side of the faith and they don’t like him?

That’s part of it, but there is also the issue of everything seems to be going Iran’s way right now. Confidence often leads to carelessness and the Persians are becoming very….very careless. Solidifying their hold on Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is their goal; with or without the Russian’s help!

How do the Russians fit into all of this?

The Tsar was in Iran last week. To the Iranians, that like having the Godfather say he is coming to “Visit” you! Visit’s that usually lead to a kiss on the lips and then you sleep with the fishes! He showed up had them sign a deal to basically work the majority of their oil and gas deals through his companies and then he left.

Does he care about the future of Syria….Lebanon….Iraq?

 Only if they are trying to sell oil or gas or if fits his goal of making the West trade for events in Eastern Europe.

Does that lead the Iranians to believe they are free to do what they want with those three nations?

In a nutshell…yes!

The “Link between the Two Events:

So, who is against the Persian takeover of Iraq, Lebanon and Syria?

You guessed it, the future King of Saudi Arabia.

What do the ambitions of Iran have to do with the “purge” in Saudi last weekend?

Saudi, the leadership of the Sunnis. Iran, the leadership of the Shia!  Think about it. In addition, in order to prepare for your next phase of your Master Plan, you must solidify your hold on power. That thought process holds true for both sides.

Is Saudi going to openly confront Iran?

It’s becoming entirely possible.  

Will the West and the Russians allow that to happen?

It’s even more possible nether the US or the Russians can truly prevent it. Lots of very sophisticated weapons in the hands of both groups and the animosity continues to grow. Launch authority does not reside in DC or Moscow. Remember, there was the issue of a ballistic missile being fired towards the Saudi Capital this weekend. How do you think that went over with Prince Salman?

Okay, this story could be told in a far more academic way. It will be explained by those that love to make other nation’s State Departments say, “wow”, that was very well written. He or she is obviously an “expert” on the region. Let them. The story is not an issue of sophistication. It’s a story of danger……real danger!