A PHONE CALL BETWEEN PUTIN AND NETANYAHU:

The Russian Defense Minister goes to Israel? Unusual? Given the events in Syria and Iraq right now,? yes. A conversation takes place and afterwards, shortly afterwards, and that’s the key here, Netanyahu places a phone call to the Tsar? What did the Israelis hear that made their Boss call Shoigu’s Boss and do so so quickly? What point did Netanyahu wish to get clarification on, or what statements did he want to make the Tsar understood?

There will “never” be Iranian military facilities in Syria:

 Once again, Israel made this statement perfectly clear and they did so within the past week. Anyone who questions this stance is fooling themselves. So, is that it? Is the Tsar fooling himself? Has he made some commitment to allowing the Persians an overt, permanent stance in Syria? Even if he hasn’t, has he turned a blind eye to such an event becoming reality? If his answer is something along the lines of,“Russia doesn’t make decision for the government of Syria”…..or….  “ Although we do not think Iranian basing in Syria is a positive event for the region, we are not the controllers of Assad”! You get the point. Can the Tsar get away with playing stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is yes! If this is the issue. If the Russian Defense Minister, who is always nothing more than a messenger, came to Israel to inform them of some level of Iranian permanent plan for Syria, then playing stupid is a disastrous decision.

Putin’s Miscalculation:

From day one, the design of the Tsar’s plan for the Middle East has been twofold. One, manipulate  the fuel industry in such a way that the impact to Russia’s economic engine, fuel, is not adversely impacted. Two, manipulate the events in the region as a bargaining chip for his goals in Eastern Europe. If Russia is threatened by NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, then Russia will destabilize other regions, vital to the West. All of this has one fatal flaw and it’s a flaw we have to wonder if the Tsar understands the significance. To Putin, the Middle East is an economic threat and a pawn all at the same time. Manipulating what takes place there is a complex game he has proven to be an expert in. But, and it’s a very dangerous but; does he understand the gravity of the “game” when it comes to Israel? Does he comprehend the depth of emotions behind the Sunni / Shia struggle? He hears from all of them, but does he truly understand just how dangerous the game really is becoming? Has he miscalculated? Here is an even more ominous question? Does he care? The Russian Defense Minister come to Israel with a message. A message that is part of a grand scheme to manipulate the region. That message is so unacceptable to Israel that a phone call is place almost immediately to Moscow. What Shoigu did was set something in motion. Was it the action his Boss anticipated? If so, then the conversation was anticipated. Iran is an issue of National Survival to Israel. If you don’t believe the Russians understand that, then asked yourself a question. Why do the most advanced Air Defense networks in the region, ones controlled by the Russians, allow the IDF to continue to strike targets in Syria?  Something happened in that meeting and something was said on that phone call to Moscow? I bet Tehran would love to know! 

THE BATTLE FOR KIRKUK. ANOTHER CHAPTER FROM DUNE! 

The long awaited battle for Kirkuk is underway. Anyone who halfway pays attention to the region has always understood what was going to happen. Kurdistan, or at least the attempt at Kurdistan. The dream of the Kurds. Kurds who just might be able to have some level of unity, unity long enough to attempt to carve out their dream. A dream the Turks, Iranians and Assad will do anything to prevent. 

 Fact check. What are the Kurds? Sunni. What are the forces now attacking Kirkuk? Yep. Shia.          Shia with Iranian units in support. Another fact check. What side are the Russians on? If you said    both, you can continue. What side is the US on, if you said both, you may continue to continue!     Wait…..what? The US is on the side of the Shia / Iranians? Well, not exactly, but they are                supporting the Iraqi government and only the true idiots in DC don’t understand Iran calls the     ball in Iraq. So, yes, you get credit if you said “both”.

Just how bad can this get?

               A few days ago, yet another ground movement was conducted by the Turks into Syria. Does anyone think this had anything to do with anything other than the Kurds? If so, stop. Go back to what you were doing. You just failed the course. Okay, back to the topic. So, are the Turks working with the Iranians? Well, not exactly. The common denominator is the quest to not see a Kurdistan continue to develop. How that takes place is not an issue derived from any form of “joint” operation, especially between Shia and Sunni units. Yes…. I know… there were and in some case are “Joint” Sunni / Shia operations in Iraq. But, before you believe some foolish concept such as a common goal, take a deeper look at the amount of money spent on this “joint” project. Yes, they are paid to get along and yes, they will both continue to betray each other when the time comes.

               How bad can the battle of Kirkuk get? Well, if you know anything about the Kurds, you know the Iraqi / Iranian forces better have their share of body bags ready to go. Yes, the Iraqi / Iranian / Hezbollah forces will make “gains” in the first actions inside of Kirkuk. The Kurds will give up areas they don’t intend on defending and allow the Iraqi units to spread out in an urban environment. Then the fighting will come and if you think the ISIS units held out for an extended period of time, pay attention to how the Kurds respond. This is a fighting force that has had years to think about how to defend Kirkuk. So, think of Kirkuk as Stalingrad and the Iraqi’s are the Germans. Think in terms of being over extended and you may get a glimpse of the days and weeks ahead for Kirkuk.

Where are the Russians?

               Russia. The supporter of Assad. Russia. The supporter of Iran. Are we going to see Russian air support for the battle of Kirkuk? No! Was a push on Kirkuk even in the playbook for the Russians? Nope! Do the Russians support the Kurds? Go back to the top of this post! So, what is going on here? How is the battle for Kirkuk going to play out in Moscow? Has the Tsar placed a call to Tehran yet? Does Tehran care if the Tsar calls? Let’s go back to a discussion I’ve had on several occasions. What is the relationship between the Russians and Iran? Does the Tsar get Birthday cards from Tehran? I bet not. Do the Russians see the Persians as tool in the great quest of Mother Russia? Yes. Do the Persians see themselves as a Puppet on a string from Moscow? No. Do they think the rest of the world sees them that way? Yes. Does that upset them? What do you think? Do the Persians feel as if the Russians pushed them to the sidelines on the future of Syria? Yes. Does that upset them? Oh you bet! So does Tehran “trust” Moscow? Trust? What a strange word when it comes to international diplomacy. Finally, are the Iranians going to allow the future of Iraq to be decided by anyone but Iran? No! So, where do the Russians come into play on the issue of the Kurds and Kirkuk? Have you ever read the book Dune? “The Spice must flow”! Who is in charge of the “Spice” is irrelevant. In Moscow, one truism is undeniable. If properly played, there is money to be made in a conflict and if you are really good, you make money from both sides!

The US? Where does it stand?

               As of this morning, the same old story hold true on the so called news networks. What did Trump say or do in the past 24hrs that everyone can argue about? Yes, the US is so lost in it’s own politics, that it can’t see the world that is revolving around it. Even when The Donald does attempt to address something about the rest of the world, the first reaction is only based upon what he said and not what the event itself actually is. Lost at Sea. That is where the US is. As a matter of fact, the US Foreign Policy Ship has been lost at sea so long, it has to be about out of gas! Funny thing about ships that are presumed “lost”. The people that were expecting the cargo, simply accept the fact it’s not showing up! It so bad now, I even saw an article last week on CNN that was encouraging Iran to “ Call the US’s Bluff on the nuclear development “deal”. Oh, by the way. Do you know why that disaster is called a “deal”? Well, I will tell you. Such an agreement, by US Constitutional law is supposed to be worked as a “Treaty” not a “Deal”! Obama knew he couldn’t get what he caved in on through Congress so he called it a “Deal” and thus, avoided Congress. Ego’s….politics is all about egos! Back on track here! The US “supports” the Kurds right? Well, there is another one of those funny words. “Supports”. Back in the 90s we “supported” the Kurds and that lead them to be gassed! Is the US going to prevent Kirkuk from becoming a battle zone? No. Has the US once again tried to work a deal with Moscow on the issue of Kirkuk? You can bet both sides have talked about what was coming. Did the US ask the Russians if the Iranians were part of the discussion? Nope! Did the US care? Nope. Does the future of the Kurds rest in the hands of the US? No. Who does hold the future for the Kurds? Are the truly on their own? The “Spice”….be thinking in terms of the “Spice”!

Did the Iranians force this Battle?

Short answer. Yes! What is the only thing the Iranians could promise the Tsar that might keep him from striking yet another deal with the US?  Yep. It must flow!  But wait a minute! What about the Ottomans? Has anyone worked this deal with the Turks? Who actually controls the lines from Kirkuk, that is until the location of the lines falls into the hands of someone new? So, what’s in it for them? Does the fall of Kirkuk prevent the future of Kurdistan? For the most part, yes! Is that enough to let the events in Kirkuk unfold without Turk influence? Yep.

               Yes the whole region remains a mess. Yes, the events in Kirkuk are going to have a resounding impacts on the Iraqi government, the Iranian government and the Turks. Yes, the Kurds are once again pawns in the larger game of world powers. Yes, the Russians will continue to make decisions not based on the best interest of Iran or Turkey. Let me end by saying this. The only way a fighting force like Peshmerga gives up Kirkuk is if something else much larger is going on. Iraqi flags driving up and down the roads of Kirkuk is a dangerous sign. Shia vs Sunni. If anyone has taken this reality out of the context for this event, they are foolish. Does the Guild understand the depth of this conflict? 

TRUMP SAYS “NO” TO IRANIAN NUCLEAR “DEAL”! NOW WHAT?

As predicted, The Donald did not certify the Iranian nuclear arms pact and the “experts” have been rushing to the news outlets to sell their opinions as fast as they can. So, the questions has been and now is, “so, what now”? First off CNN and MSNBC will have yet another nightly showing of the Trumpophobic  show! While that is taking place, the US Democratic will be rushing down the hallways of Congress to see who can get on TV first as they give their profound statements on what Trump’s actions mean to the nation. All of this is not only predictable and laughable, it’s also worthless to watch. Let’s take an intelligent look at what the Donald’s actions mean, but not the US, but to “others”.

Does it really matter?

Let me make something perfectly clear to anyone out there that doesn’t understand the dynamics of the Middle East. Iran will never…….never….ever… be allowed to possess nuclear weapons! And I say never ever? If I didn’t, I’ll say it again! NEVER EVER! Doesn’t matter what the US signs. It doesn’t matter what the Russians promise. It doesn’t matter how many foaming at the mouth speeches the reading leadership might give. It doesn’t matter how much the North Koreans or any other nations scientist attempt to help the Iranians. It’s never going to happen! The reigning people or those that hate the nation of Israel can listen to all the speeches they want to. They can have old men stand at podiums and talk about the destruction of the nation of Israel. It won’t matter! The nation of Israel will never allow the Iranians to possess nuclear weapons! Now that we understand that, let’s move on to a topic that’s probably far more important given today’s decision by the United States leadership. The Iranians delusional enough to state they will now move their program for?

Iran’s Decision:

All the talk today, after president trumps decision, seem to center around the issue that the United States Congress must now decide the fate of the Iranian nuclear weapons agreement. As I stated above, that’s a completely false assumption. There is a far more important decision to be made and it’s not one that will take place in the United States. How Iranians react? Who will try and influence their reaction? How will those that support the Iranians respond to today decision? These are far more important questions then making comments and speculations about the U.S. Congress. Logically the first decision that must be made, must be made by the Iranians. Howell words given from the bully pulpit are meaningless. After all the emotional speeches are finished, what will the Iranians do? It seems they have 60 days to figure that out. Sometime inside that 60 day window, you will see a dire warning from the Israelis addressing the Iranians and the options they must contemplate. The Iranians know better than anyone else that the Israelis do not pay attention to words as much as they do physical actions.

This is not New “News”:

The Iranians, the Russians and just about everyone else has been anticipating today’s decision. Courses of action, based upon the decisions of United States, have been under development by every single nation that could be impacted by this agreement. Conversations between nations, especially with the United States, have been going on for weeks. The EU’s sympathetic approach towards the Iranians has most likely follow up on deaf ears at the White House. As for Moscow, the Czar has been willing to trade away the Persians from day one. Europe, more specifically, Eastern Europe, that is the Brass Ring Russians seek. Let The Donald place NATO expansion on the table and you can watch the Iranian nuclear program go away overnight. So you see, the anticipation of the US’s decision today has been in play long before the announcement the media is going crazy over right now.

Who holds the “High ground”:

Think of this entire discussion over Iranian nuclear weapons development from a unique but typical stance. Who holds the high ground? Who really negotiates this dangerous topic from  an overwhelming advantage point? Answer? The United States! Who understands this as this negotiation period Now moves forward? Yep! The Donald! Yes, I know, all the liberal media is abuzz with yet another rumor that the commander-in-chief of the United States top military advisers are against killing the Iranian weapons program deal! To that I simply answer, BS! What the United States military brass has most likely informed their commander-in-chief is the fact that the Israelis have a trigger point for the Iranian nuclear weapons program.” Mr. President. If the Iranians decide to move forward with their program they are X amount of days away from operation weapon. The Israelis will take action against that program no later than X amount of days prior to that anticipated operational weapons date”. That Is probably as close as you can get to the true concerns of the United States military senior leadership if you’re looking for an issue with this entire Iranian nuclear weapons deal. If they were asked, and they probably were, what is the recommendation, their answers would be based upon the scenarios that they believe might happen. There is one thing that every senior military commander in United States understands. The Israelis will never allow the Iranians to have functional nuclear weapons program. So today, the Donald set into motion a process most had already anticipated. The announcement was only the next move in this chess game. Anticipated reactions by the Iranians and their supporters were factored in before this final decision was made. Having said that, you never really know your opponents next move until they actually make it. Let me end this post by reiterating my initial statement. Iran will never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Durand needs to understand the physics of this event. 1650c …………If you live in Iran…………look it up!!! Your leaders may have it in your future.  

TURKEY AND THE WEST. IS IT TIME TO REALIZE WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

So the Sultan will not “recognize” the US Ambassador as the official representative of the US in Turkey? Well, I’ve said this before and I will say it again and again…………..Erdogan is a mentally Ill! Yes…He’s a nutcase…thus the reason I call him Egodan! In the course of a week, the Turks have taken several deliberate steps to thumb their nose at the US. Why you may ask? If you have to ask that question, then you’ve not been following this nutcase for over thirteen years now. If Egodan is anything, he’s a dreamer. A man who has a fantasy of the new Ottoman Empire and of course he’s the Sultan of this imaginary world. But why now? Why all the uptick in this strained relationship?

The Puppet Master:

Who is the Puppet Master? If you have followed my posting for the past few years, you know exactly who I’m referring to……. You know...... The Tsar.  Could the phone ring next to Egodan’s bed and the Tsar simply give him his marching orders for that that day? No! Can the Tsar manipulate multiple issues with key inputs at just the right time to make the Puppet in Ottoman Land dance the Pirouette? As a matter of fact, he does it with more than just Egodan! He’s even has The Donald Jumping around at predictable moments in the movement. So, what was the issue this week that lead to the Sultan to once again take a slap at the US? Was it the meeting of the Saudi’s in Moscow? Was it the fact the Kurds are still receiving “support” from the West? Did Egodan just have some bad Turkish coffee this week?

Shifts in Power:  

How did the Sultan interpret the Saudi meeting in Moscow last week? Everyone knows the Saudis are a ripe plume the Tsar is more than willing to pluck away from the West. Oil, location and the ability to control the flow of funds into the Sunni groups…….groups that worry the Tsar. Could it be the Sultan was trying to show the Tsar the Turk’s increasing distancing from the West? Was the Sultan jealous of the Saudi visit? Sound crazy, well, crazy is the box that sits between Egodan’s ears! Never expect rational actions out of irrational people. The Saudi meeting in Moscow has all the “Experts” talking about the continuing “Power Shift” in the Middle East and to some extent they are correct. As they always have, times are changing! Old alliances are just that, “old”! New alliances are always shaky and full of doubt. But, here is what we all need to remember as it’s a much greater issue that Egodan making yet another mystifying statement. In the history of global power, powers based on alliances, the shifting of such alliances is almost always the real indication of dangerous times ahead. What we see taking place with Turkey has been slowly going on for over ten years now. That said, new shifts are now taking place and more irrational leaders are showing up on the playing field. All of that can only lead to one conclusion, we are sailing deeper in to very stormy waters! 

TRUMP’S, CALM BEFORE THE STORM” STATEMENT?

The word began to react today, those that were paying attention, to the words of The Donald. “The Calm before the storm”? To the guy who is still upset with the actions of the spoiled Jocks in the NFL, that statement probably didn’t even register. To a guy like the Tsar, his classic grin may have appeared on his face. To the liberal left, it was just another sign the White House is occupied by a crazy man. Finally, to the military leadership in the room, one of whom I know, it was a statement that made their phones blow up as soon as the word got out. Oh ya, to me? Well, to me it means one thing. The Donald is driving certain world leaders crazy and I’m not sure that is a bad thing.

“Don’t Test me”:

Whose more “ Macho” the Tsar or The Donald? Who feels like the other guy is getting all the macho, style points? Who is watching a Master Statesmen out maneuver him in the world of international affairs? Who has the leadership of the Middle East knocking on his door asking for a new found friendship? One last one. Who is not used to, nor comfortable with, someone else being the better businessman, on all fronts?

The Donald doesn’t like to lose. He doesn’t like, “Bad Deals”. That is not how he made his fortune and fame. Every day he wakes up only to hear of some new slick maneuver by the Tsar. To a guy like The Donald, that gets old real……real…..fast. In the middle of all of this, two pest continue to distract The Donald. Two third level nations continue to eat up his time and continue to have the liberal media hounding him. Yep. North Korea and Iran. It’s bad enough he can’t shake the ludicrous and completely unfounded story of some type of “deal” with the guy he can’t seem to keep up with, but he has these two issues nipping at his heels. There’s one way to show the guy that you’re envious of that you’re just as good as he is, and that is to make bold and rash statements that catch everyone’s attention. In a way it could very well be The Donald’s statement of, “Calm before the storm”, as a way of saying, “see there. I’m a hard ass just as much as you are”! I know all this seems far-fetched, but were talking about a person that is pretty far-fetched.

The Reaction:

I made the statement earlier about a grin coming across the face of the Czar.I did so understanding that he would’ve expected just such a reaction from the US president, his so-called friend and comrade. Pupils interaction future King of Saudi Arabia this week, yes the current King went along for the ride, was yet another message to the west more specifically, the United States. The future of the Middle East continues to be shaped by the decisions made in Moscow and there seems to be little the West can do about it. That has to be frustrating to more than just the US president. As an example, one has to wonder what the conversations were inside the Iranian capital when Saudi showed up in Moscow. Yes the Iranians knew the Saudis are going to see the Czar and yes the radians probably fully have anticipated the future King is building an alliance with the Russians. What does that hold for the Iranians? What deals will the Tsar cut the Saudi king and will Iran have any influence on any of the agreements?

If The Donald wanted to stir discontent between the Russians and the Iranians, at a moment in time when the Persians true enemy was in a meeting with their puppet master, then why not leak the information that the Iranian nuclear accord was not going to be approved? Is the timing of these two events, the meeting in Moscow and the statement by the US president a coincidence? My opinion? I don’t believe in coincidences when it comes to international affairs. The Donald in a chess match with a world champion player. Worse yet, this world champion player is reportedly the mentor of his current opponent. The Czar continues to make the game even more complicated as The Donald struggles to keep up. This was a rash and confusing statement US president has made. The huge question becomes, was it truly a warning? The Donald is more than capable of playing brinksmanship, but the question becomes is he truly thinking his way through the process? I would’ve loved to herd the conversations amongst the US military leaders after that meeting with their commander-in-chief was over.