SAUDI ARABIA AND WOMEN DRIVING CARS? WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Okay. I like to read Pepe’s stuff and this article is a fairly hard statement about what may be taking place in Saudi. The one thing I did get lost on was…………..where did the story go about Women driving cars? When I first saw the announcement,  I had a mental picture of the roundabouts in Saudi! Look, it’s bad enough to navigate a simple roadway there, but when you get the Mad Max Roundabouts and you know that almost every drive in that swarming Bee’s Hive is a Saudi male, it’s hard to get up the courage to drive forward into the abyss. Now……………….to that…………add Saudi Women drivers……..drivers who have never driven…………….drivers who are most likely visually impaired for religious reasons!!!! My prediction is, if someone opened a website that was just Roundabout cameras 24/7, you would get a million hits a day. If you think watching Russian dash-cam clips on YouTube is fun………….you just wait! Who can drive? When can they drive? That may be the Devil in the Details that saves the streets of Saudi from becoming, if you can believe it, far worse than they already are.

Alright. Enough about Saudi’s predicament with Driving Ms. Daisy. Let me go back and take a look at Pepe’s real issue in this story; The House divided in Saudi…… The concept of the Kingdom having a violent change. Is that really in the wings? Is the Saudi Kingdom in that much trouble?

I’ve addressed the topic before of the so called “Young Prince” / MBS. Is he the power hungry Roya some make him out to be? How many of the Royals are not power hungry? Is he the reason the CIA allegedly “upset”? By the way, you would be amazed at how well the CIA plays every side of every angle. Is MBS driving the Saudi Kingdom into a crisis? Here is one for ya. How about the idea the young Prince is trying desperately to insure Saudi’s survival?

Surrounded by “inexperienced Thirty Year olds”, that’s Pepe’s view. My view…………I hope so, or at least I hope he has a mixture of new and old next to him. If the ratio is out of balance, then it will be business as usual in Saudi.

Family:

Is there a Family element to the potential troubles in Saudi? Yes. Is that new? No! Is it more prevalent this time around? Yes. Does that mean a “bloodbath” is going to take place? No. Here is my answer to the question of resistance to the future King. The current King’s wishes are the rule of the land. That is how the nation has been run and that is how it’s run now. Now, the argument is, MBS manipulated a mentally failing King to jump to next in line. Again. Anything new here? No. Here comes the fun part to watch in all of this. Fun and dangerous. Dangerous because desperate nations can do desperate things.

Sides:

Sides! Who is on whose side? According to Pepe and others, the CIA sides with the Nayef, the guy that got tossed out by MBS! So, where does that leave the Russians? Does anyone think for a minute the Tsar is not a stake holder in this game of Thrones? How important is Saudi to Russia? Very. Is it all about the oil? Not entirely. The Middle East is a Chessboard and the Tsar loves to play the game at that level. What can be done to aggravate the West? What makes the West squirm? Did the Russians have their fingers in the move by MBS? How could they not have? Even if they didn’t, would the CIA think they didn’t? Hey, by the way, does the current team at the CIA get along with The Donald? Now, there is an argument for another day. Who does the Dirty Work for the “Deep State”? Is the Deep State issue in the US just like the issue of “Power” in Saudi right now? There’s another great conversation I won’t have given I don’t want my blog page to come up missing!

How bad is it?

Is the government of Saudi Arabia in real trouble? Is someone going to try to inflame the radical religious elements in Saudi? Is the issue of softening the social status in Saudi going to be the stick used against the future King? Can someone turn Saudi into Syria? If so, who would get the blame and what would the Future King do about it? Be thinking Iran here and not Russia. Putting pressure on young Salman will not go over well. Thinking the Iranians and the CIA are behind that pressure will not go over well.  Who does he turn to? Who makes the threat far more complicated? Let see how the meeting between the current King and the Tsar goes. That will give us a hint…. A hint of something I already believe.  Ah yes... The Saudi version of Game of Thrones! 

http://www.atimes.com/article/wheels-deals-trouble-brewing-house-saud/

THE DEATH OF LT. GENERAL ASAPOV. HOW AND WHAT COULD IT MEAN?

A few days ago a Russian three-star general was killed in Syria. His role was that of, “an advisor”! Now, I spent a large part of my career, “advising”, but I can’t remember a three-star general, in the field, as an advisor. Yes, Russians do do things differently and the idea of a three-star general being in the forward danger zone of a conflict is not new to the Russians. I’m with the story is, no one really believes that General Asapov was, “an advisor”! General Asapov was most likely what most three-star generals are, a commander of troops, Russian Troops! So, why was this matter? The story itself didn’t even show up in the Western media.

The notification:

In Moscow, the notification had been made to Putin along with the details of how the event took place. How does a three-star general get killed in action by indirect fire? How was it that the, “enemy” could target a location effectively that has a Russian three-star general operating? Short version, “how did they find him”? These are probably just a few of the questions Russian president asked of his military staff. Contrary to Western media coverage, loss of a Russian three-star general is a big deal! It’s an event the Russian president will not simply turned his back to.

Definitions of the word “Enemy”:

Daesh? What is the Russian definition of a member of Daesh? In case you have forgotten, it’s anyone who’s fighting the Syrian government. The Russians know full well that their definition encompasses any and all factions supported by the West, namely the United States. Though, think about it for a minute. When someone walked in the room and advised present Putin he had lost a three-star general, what were his thoughts? The countless discussions and unofficial agreements between the US and the Russians, on the topic of Syria, are so numerous and so convoluted, it is difficult to believe that any hard fast understanding of roles and responsibilities could prevent what took place. The intelligence required to locate and target the Russian three-star general would be a difficult task. Yes, it is happened time and time again with Iranian senior military leaders, but I would be willing to bet the Russians were suspect of the intelligence provided to make those attacks happen as well. If you really want to cut to the chase, the Russian president may be sitting in Moscow wondering how it is the Americans would be so bold as to target a Russian three-star general in the field? If that hypothesis sounds ridiculous to you, that I would submit that your knowledge of Putin’s mindset is not as good as you might think it is. The fact of the matter is, the Russians lost a three-star general in Syria! How they lost him and who was responsible for questions they would to get the facts for what they will make assumptions! Communications between the US and the Russians must be taking this is not his name general place as I write this. At least I hope so! 

KURDISH BID OF “INDEPENDENCE” AND THE SUM OF ALL FEARS!

From day one of the Arab Spring, many feared one outcome. Kurdistan! I addressed this over six years ago and I’ve never come off center on the topic. The Kurds! No group has manipulated more than the Kurds. Loyal to the West before and during Desert Shield and Storm. Loyalty that lead to them being gassed. When ISIS was on the march in Iraq, what one group stood in their way? Who held the line? Yep, the Kurds! Have the Kurdish groups placed bombs in New York? Have they hijacked aircraft? Have they made gruesome videos of Westerners having their heads sawed off? If you know the Kurds, then you know the answer to all of these questions.

PERSIANS AND OTTOMANS:

The destabilization of Iraq and Syria meant only one thing to the Iranians and the Turks. It’s one of the very few issues the Ottomans and the Persians have in common. The fear of the Kurds! The fear of a new nation called, Kurdistan! Both the Turks and Iranians own land the Kurds lay claim to and you can toss in Syria and Iraq while you are at it. The loss of land is valid reason to go to war and war is exactly what the Iranians and the Turks are willing to risk to prevent Kurdistan. Not only are the Ottomans and the Persians willing to risk war, the rest of the world believes their threats. Here is where it gets real complicated. Nether the Turks or the Iranians are willing to trust each other over the issue of the Kurds. They both want the nightmare of Kurdistan to go away and they are both willing to go to extreme measures to insure it never takes place, but how do they do that without risking the “other side” coming out on top? You see………………the Turks and the Iranians don’t like each other. The history of the Ottomans and the Persians is not a one of cooperation! Neither side wants the Kurds to form a nation state, but neither side is willing to let the other side gain a possible advantage in the region. So, it comes down to this. How do the Ottomans and the Persians deal with the issue of the Kurds with the real end- state being not letting the other guy be seen as the hero? No joint victory here! There is no room on the spotlight stage when it comes to the Sultan of Turkey! Oh……..by the way……….did I mention the Kurds are Sunni? What are the Turks……for the most part? What’s taking place in the region? Oh ya…. A religious, faction, Civil War.

PROXY:

Conflict by “proxy”. That is the 20^th and now 21^st Century way of large nations doing business. If the Kurds need to be neutralized, send in the Proxy fighters. Who are the proxy fighters for the Iranians? Shia Militias! What are the Kurds? Sunni?  Can anyone see where this is heading? Will the GCC support Shia Militias fighting the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Tukey? Are the Saudis willing to let the Turks, a declared Ally, stand by and watch fellow Sunni’s be wiped out? How much satisfaction would the Saudi’s gain from observing the Kurds, tremendous fighters by the way, drive Iran crazy? Hint, all of this has been going on for several years now.

Proxy groups are the flavor of the day in the Middle East and that is not going to change. The issue of the Kurds and their drive for independence has been on the radar from day one. It’s the one thing the Turks and the Iranians truly fear. Does the issue of Kurdistan drive two old rivals into some type of delusional alliance? Who would that upset? How would it really unfold? How would the Sunni Arabs react? In just a few days, the Kurds are going to vote. No one is going to acknowledge the outcome. No one is going to stand up for the Kurds. Even those who would will be neutral at best. Here is where the Russians come in. The Iranians cannot be allowed to crush the Kurds. It’s up to the Russians to keep that from happening. As for the Turks! Well, Egodan, as I call him, see things one way. His way! If all that happens on the 25^th is a proclamation, a proclamation no one will recognize, then the Kurds will have to force the issue. Then what? A day doesn’t go by that the Middle East Region doesn’t become more and more complicated……………………….dangerous! 

THE RUSSIAN/ CHINA PLAN FOR NORTH KOREA. “ PLATA O PLOMO”?

The new Silk Road is the answer? “Joint the club and make money”? Is that the concept the Russians and the Chinese have come up with for North Korea? Enticement? http://www.atimes.com/article/russia-china-plan-north-korea-stability-connectivity/

I have to admit, when I read this article, I had to smile. It’s a seen right out of the God Father movies.  No surprise here. The intent of the Russians as well as the Chinese is to keep the US / West / from finding its own answer for the North Korean issue. War on the Korean Peninsula is not an option for the Chinese or the Russians; or the South Koreans for that matter. So, let’s get all sides to sit down, with the exception of the US, and let’s talk what really matters. MONEY!

Yes, the allure of the new Silk Highway allowing the Korean Peninsula to be united, at least along economic lines, could be a tempting approach to the crazy fat guy in the North. Telling a story of, “we can all make money and all these hard feelings will go away”, that sounds enticing. Even the Japanese came to the table, or they came to listen that is. On the surface, it sounds like a “Great Deal”! So, what happened? Why didn’t the Hermit Kingdom jump on the deal? What “downside” could they possibly see? The fact of the matter is, they did turn it down, for now as they put it. Why? Why for now? What other goal other than survival as a nation might they have? To the Russians / Putin/ the response must have been puzzling! Who turns down “deals” from the God Father? More importantly, who sleeps at night knowing they said “no” to the Don?

Carrot and the Stick:

Did the Russians and the Chinese come up with this “deal” in a true collective? Was this truly a Russian / Chinese plan? Did the Tsar come up with the idea and the Dragon simply said, “Okay….let’s see what they say”. Do either of these countries only offer Carrots? Does anyone think this offer was made with no mention of the “Stick”? What else may have been communicated to the North Koreans when this offer was made? If the concept was openly covered, what about the alternative?

PLATA O PLOMO:

Is the Tsar and the Dragon “Plata O Plomo” kind of of leaders? Oh….most of you have no idea! What is Plata O Plomo you might ask? For those of you who don’t know, in Mexico, when a Drug Gang ask the locals to do something, the presentation is simple. “ Plata O Plomo”! Silver or Lead….. you choose! Was this a Plata O Plomo moment for the little fat guy in North Korea?  I would be willing the unofficial message came as soon as the North said, “ Not right now”! The little fat guy needs to learn Spanish quickly. Something tells me that was his ONLY “Plata” offer he will get. His successor will get the same offer. If that offer has already been made and the next “Great Leader” has said “Si”, then the little fat guy may be have another old saying coming. “ Tonight, he sleeps with the Fishes”! 

NORTH KOREA AND NOW A HYDROGEN BOMB?

How many times have I written about the issue of North Korea? Has anything really changed? Is it even with talking about? Is anything going to change? Why am I even taking the time to write this post? All good questions and for that reason, I’ll once again weigh in on the issue.

HYDROGEN TEST:

Was it a Hydrogen device? It appears so. Does it matter? Yes.  Why? From a tactical level, the destruction efficiency is vastly superior to a typical nuke. Pardon the pun, but it’s a matter of more bang for your buck! If true, it’s a physiological victory that allows the Little Fat Man, perhaps I should stop calling him a nickname that is related to a nuke weapon, to continue to thumb his nose at the West. So, if it’s all true, score yet another one for North Korea.

CHINA:

I’ve said it before and I will just keep saying it. It’s in China’s power and interest to solve the North Korean issue. Two years ago, I spelled out a simplistic, but dangerous concept for the Chinese. It went something like this. Get some of the North’s Generals to accept a deal they can’t refuse. Get them in position to Kill the Little Fat Man and then invite the Chinese / South Korean governments to form a coalition, interim government after the coup takes place. Hint. They don’t have to invite the US to the party. When the dust settles, the Chinese have what they want and the US / West has what they want. A North Korea that is no longer a threat to the world. The US / West without an excuse to have a large standing military on South Korean land. A China that shows the world they truly are the only nation that can solve the complex problems of the region! Sound simplistic? What is the alternative?

THE US AND ITS ALLIES:

I’m not going to use the “Kick the Can[DS1] ” metaphor this time. I’ve used it over and over again just like the US leadership has for the past three decades. Options! Someone tell me what the options are for the US? Someone tell me how you solve this never-ending crisis without pronouncing a death sentence to a million people in one city alone? If your answer is a ballistic shield, a system where launched warheads are intercepted in flight, then tell me the plan for convincing the Chinese the same system will not be left in place to counter any Chinese capability? Take a look how that conversation has gone with the Russians and the issue of Europe. 

CAPITULATION:

Is that the answer? Capitulation? Does the US and its Allies simply make threats against the use of nuclear weapons and there by admit they are going to live with a nuclear North Korea? There is every hint in DC that is exactly what is taking place. What will that lead to? What so called, “message” does that send to other rouge nations such as Iran? Is capitulation the bluff the next madman can count on? For Iran’s sake, I hope and pray that is not the case. The resolve of the US may be based upon the unacceptable price of war, but the nation of Israel cannot spell the word, “Capitulation”! And with that, the ugly truth once again comes to the surface. The North Koran event is not just about North Korea. The ability to get where they with nuclear weapons didn’t come from North Korean Scientist. Those who have allowed North Korea to achieve this goal are responsible for the future that may be about to unfold. The Dragon wants everything its way. It wants to dominate world trade, the new Silk Highway. It wants to be the new leader of the world as we stumble into the 21^st century. “Let them eat Cake”. That may be the attitude, but here is another old saying the Chinese may want to ponder. “You can’t have your cake and eat it to”.  Kill the little Mad Man. Get the North Korean Generals to accept the offer you can provide them. Give the US a reason to pack up and go home from South Korea. Do these things and the world may just avoid the next nuclear war.

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