IRAN AND MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN. JUST HOW DANGEROUS IS THIS?

Well, I took the last week or so off and now it’s time to talk about someone I’ve been watching for a few years now. Prince Bin Salman! Not the first time I’ve commented on this very interesting figure. What changed? What made me come back to his status? What made him important enough to talk about given all the other things taking place in the world? Simple. The Persians!

Is it new news the Persians don’t like him? Is it new news they don’t trust him? Is it new news they are worried about his actions? No on all accounts. So, why the trip back down memory lane on the topic? Here is why. Syria, the Russians, the Turks, the Jordanian, the Egyptians  and most importantly, the Israelis. 

Decisions being made:

I’ve said this time and time again, but it’s worth repeating over and over. Decisions are being made about the future of the region and the Iranians are not getting a vote, at least they don’t believe so. Moscow is calling the shots and the perception the Tsar is working with the Persians is just that, a perception. Smoke! Does Moscow care what Tehran says? No. Does the Tsar factor in what is good for the Persians? Nope! Have I said this a dozen or more times in the past two years? Yep! Is the situation with the Iranians getting worse and nobody really sees it? Yep! Why? Why is it getting worse? Moscow? That’s part of the answer. The new US leadership? That’s part of it. The new future King in Saudi? That’s part of it. The growing rift in leadership inside of Iran? Yep. That’s part of it. The fear that that Iran is in real trouble? Yep. Look. At the end of the day, inside the rooms where the old men in Tehran hangout, the picture of the future is not very bright. Then, the worst of all news takes place. The young Prince in Saudi makes his move and it becomes very clear to Tehran the future just got much dimmer. It’s not a good time in Iran and the Old Guard is not happy!

Aggressive vision:

 Have the leaders of Iran had an aggressive vision for years? Yes! Does the future King of Saudi have an aggressive vision for Saudi? Yes. Who is more aggressive? Who is more energetic? Who has fewer obstacles in his way? Yep. The future King. Who knows this to be true? Yep. The old men in Tehran. Who can they truly count on to counter this future King? Iraq? No. Syria? What Syria? Syria doesn’t exist anymore. The Dragon? The Dragon could care less about the Persians other than what do they own the Dragon may want and how many Chinese can be employed inside of Iran. Who’s on the Iranian’s “Friends List” that really matters? North Korea? Yes! Is that a bad thing? Oh yes……………a very bad thing. What can North Korea do about the future King? Nothing. Nothing unless Iran’s nuclear program with North Korea provide Iran with a bomb to hold over the King’s head. Good luck with that concept!

Just not going well:

I’ve said it before, but things are just not going well for the Persians and the Old Men know it. Internal pressure is building and the weak friends list is growing weaker. On top of all of that, place a future King who has Iran on his hit list and you have a recipe for Hyper Tension pushing Old Men’s health to the limit. Who is the next real leader of Iran? Who is going to attempt to hold the revolutionary line? When Chavez died, the idiot who took over Venezuela was doomed from day one. Who can hold Iran together when the Old Man dies? Keep an eye on the one true hero of Iran. If you don’t know who I am talking about you need to read more. It’s coming!  

PUTIN AND TRUMP FINALLY HAVE THAT BEER!

The US media is running around in circles with their hair on fire. The Donald and Mr. Putin are going to meet! It’s happening……it’s finally happening! The left of left CNN is almost challenging The Donald. They are just about threatening him that he better take a hard stance with the Tsar or it will prove he was in bed with him, bad image I know, from the very beginning. It’s all been a grand plan to get The Donald in the White House and now the Tsar is going to press a button on his watch and The Donald turns into a mindless robot with a Moscow sticker on his forehead. If The Donald smiles, it’s on! He was a plant and the loony left in the US will believe it!

Where’s the Beef?

The first meeting? The first face to face meeting! Okay……………….so what? Does anyone think for a minute these two have not talk over issues dozens of times? Does anyone think they have not talk over critical issues time and time again? For all we know they are suto  Twitter pals. Really, that would not surprise me one bit.

So, what is this all about? What is all the hype over them meeting face to face for the “first time”? The public. That is what the hype is all about. The public gets to see them together and for some reason that is important. Whose public? The US? The Russian? The Iranians? The Chinese? The Turks? Europe? Yes. Yes to all. So, it’s a photo op? Yep. It’s a photo op! So, they are not really addressing important issues, just taking pictures? No. Symbolism is the issue for the photo shoot and then……………move on! Is it possible for the two of them to meet without anyone knowing it? Yes. Is that what took  place? Absolutely! If may have already taken place. A continuation of topics that the two of them have been talking for months, that is what is taking place or going to take place. Here is the fun part!

Play the Game!

So, The Donald has to show that he was, “hard” on Mr. Putin. He has to make CNN and the Democrats say, “It was all a show”! Yep, they still didn’t believe it not because the Bromance is true, but because they cannot afford to admit the two of them are not in some type of “relationship”. It was easy for The Donald to let a few words be recorded, make a few comments and then move on. It was easy for Mr. Putin to sit there and let The Donald make a few statements. Why? Because it really was all a show! Give the public what they want; the photo op. Give the Democrats and the Liberal Media something to talk about and then move on to important issues. Issues that have been on the table for months. Play the game and then get down to business. By the time I posted this, the hysterical, I mean historical meeting has taken place. The real issues that will impact the two nations continue to be batted around. The Russians continue to make decision about Syria without giving Iran a vote. The Iranians know the topic of Syria is and was on the table and they didn’t get the coordination phone call. The Chinese have to wonder what was said behind closed doors, but that’s only if they are not able to find out. The crazy little fat guy in North Korea may or may not wonder what The Donald and Mr. Putin talked about. In the end, the photo op was held. The private meeting took place and who knows; they may have even had a beer together, but don’t tell CNN. It would prove the conspiracy they are punch drunk with.  What really came of this event? Nothing. What changed? Nothing. What is the topic that both are pushing hard on? NATO and North Korea. Trading is in the future and the trading partners are limited to the two of them. Back to work boys! Send out a tweet or two Donald. Have Sputnik media publish something rational soon Mr. Putin. The anticipated event is now history. Back to work. 

PUTIN AND TRUMP SET TO MEET, BUT DID THE MAIN TOPIC JUST CHANGE?

A successful ICBM flight for North Korea as confirmed by the US.  Going into the meeting between the Putin and Trump, the major topic was most likely going to be Syria with a bargaining stance of future support events in Eastern Europe. Now, part of that conversation may have just changed and changed dramatically. North Korea. That will be The Donald’s lead talking point. I would be willing to bet some level of conversation has taken place in just the past 24 hours. Staffs resetting the discussion flow. That is what I bet has taken place. An ICBM capability in North Korea! A game changer? Yes, but for more reasons than you might think.

One Man’s Crisis is another man’s opportunity!

Do the North Koreans have a miniaturized warhead that can sit on top of the rocket they just launched yesterday? The Intelligence community will have made the best guess they possibly can. Are they correct? The Chinese and maybe even the Russians may know. The fact of the matter is this. The ability to deliver is now there and the US has admitted it. Delivery. The world that most “experts” said the North was not close to yet. These are the same experts that missed the nuclear weapons programs in South Africa, Pakistan, and India. Need I say more? When it comes to nuclear weapons, there is no such thing as, “whoops”! Trump comes to the meeting now with a topic that must have some level of resolution. The North Korean can has been kicked down the road for over 25 years, but the road has come to an end. By the way, it’s the same road the can is heading with the Iranians.

Trump comes to the meeting with Putin with a growing crisis on his hands. On his watch, the issue of North Korea will finally have to be dealt with. What does the mean to the Tsar? Leverage! That what it means, leverage! Putin had it coming into the meeting, but the counter effort was painful. Eastern Europe. Poland and a Missile Defense program on the horizon. All of these things with Putin willing to turn up the heat in areas like Serbia as the Chess Match continued. Now. Now, that has changed and Putin know it. What does The Donald need from Putin on the issue of North Korea? What is the new price of support from Moscow? How does Putin help convince the Chinese to accept the possible fate of North Korea? Can he make the crisis better or worse? Going into this meeting, it may appear the Tsar holds the Trump Card…. I know….cheap! But! Does he? Does Putin have the real advantage?  Does he truly understand the mind of Donald Trump? Here is where the “experts” in Moscow, the Tsar’s “Experts” may have been wrong………………………very wrong!

The Mind of Trump!

I’ve made this point before. Trump is not a man who has achieved where he is in the world today by being out maneuvered at the negotiation table. Can he take a crisis and turn it into an advantage? Yes! He has that skill most of the US politicians, on both sides, hate about him. He is better at their game then they are and they know it and they hate it! The media knows it and they hate it more than the Politicians. Just ask CNN. “Vlad. I want you to know I am going to deal with North Korea’s program with or without your support. I’m going to inform the Chinese and let them know they need to make a choice. I know what they want in the region and I know what I will offer them to allow this North Korean nightmare to end. I will tell the South Korean government that we have run out of time. I will tell Japan’s government I will need their help,, but I will do this with or without them as well. I can’t allow this to continue and I will accept loses in our forces and the lives of civilians in South Korea and North Korea before I will allow the loss of life on US land. China has one last chance to prevent this event. You and I both know they have the ability to overtake the North Korean government either with their military or with the help of the North Korean military, but they must act now”! Now, these are not the exact words Trump may use, but the tone is there. The perception of, “I’m not going to let this event dictate the future of my country”! This is the real Donald! This is the mindset of a man who drives hard and at some point in a negotiation, digs in and crosses his arms. If this is the Trump that shows up for the sit down this week, what does the Tsar do? How does he maneuver to up the stakes if he suddenly sees that there is no room for compromise?  Does he look The Donald in the eyes and say, “ I understand! You can no longer tolerate what is taking place in North Korea and I can no longer tolerate what is taking place with NATO in Eastern Europe. What are we to do”? You better believe Putin is capable of such a steely eyed conversation. Folks! This could be one of the most important meetings for the future of the world in a long…………long time. Who knew the first meeting between these two would have such weight on it! I know I’ll be watching.

TURKEY AND THE SAUDI. WHAT IS REALLY TAKING PLACE?

Just about the time the Arab Spring started, I posted that in the end, the real issue for the region was going to be about power. It’s always about power. You pick the spot in the world and it’s about power. Back then, my comments came along two lines. One, the struggle between the Ottomans with their new Sultan, the Arabs with Saudi leading the charge and the Persians with Iran to once again, own the Arabs. By the way, owning the Arabs was and is the goal of the Sultan as well. The second issue that was and is tearing the region apart was once again about power, but this time the struggle was and is inside of one religion. So why all the talk about the tension between the Turks and Saudi? Why does that surprise anyone? Does it really surprise them? If you read someone’s babble about the weakened relationship between the Turks and the Saudis, stop reading! Don’t waste your time on the words of an idiot looking to get paid for this week’s editorial. Ottomans and Arabs. Oil and water. Persians and Arabs. Oil and water. Ottomans and Persians. Oil and water. Does it really matter? Does this increasing departure of tolerance of each other really matter; for that is all there really is, tolerance. Does Turkey’s support for Qatar really amount to anything? Yes. At this point in history, yes it does and here is why.

Qatar: 

I’ve not spoken much about this ongoing issue with Qatar. I posted something a few weeks ago, but then I sad back to watch what the shakeup in Saudi was really all about and what it might lead to. That’s a topic I will address in the next few days, maybe!

Why? Why is Turkey supporting Qatar? Is it the gas? Is the banking system? Is it Qatar’s funding in support of Turkey? Yes on all three counts, but it’s more than that. It’s part of the “vision” of the New Sultan. Divide and conquer? Is that the Sultan’s plan? Help split the Arabs. Help pull apart the regional coalition called the GCC? Even if this was not the real plot behind the support of Qatar, how could the pending King of Saudi see it any other way? What does the young Prince think of the Sultan? What does the think of the Ottomans? Yes, they are Sunni together by history, but that is not the baseline of loyalty in that part of the world. Blood! Blood is the cornerstone of alliances and there is no Ottoman blood in the Prince’s vanes! Taking sides is a dangerous game in the Middle East. Perception rules the world of international affairs and the perception of the young Prince may very well be the time for working with the Turks is almost over. Enter. Egypt. Well not really enter, but increased support that is the step that is taking place now. So how does the Sultan answer the increased Saudi / Egyptian alliance? Well, in a way that won’t make the situation any less dangerous.

Persians and Ottomans:

Over the past few years, I can’t remember how many times I’ve addressed the relationship between the Ottomans and the Persians and I’m too lazy to search my own blogsite! So, let’s look at this section of the post as a refresher. Is there anything the Sultan sees as appealing when he looks to the Persians? Trade? Well, somewhat, but nothing that makes his mouth water. The Kurds? Yes, they both have a common goal in keeping Kurdistan from taking place. Shia vs Sunni? Yes that bothers him, but not from a religious standpoint. He’s not exactly a Sunni zealot. He most likely only prays, when he needs to have someone seeing him do so. Pressure? Does the perception that the Ottomans are talking the Persians impact the Arabs, the Saudis? Yep, you bet! How about the West / US? What is the perception of the Turks talking with the Iranians? Frankly, Turkey has been the Brother in Law you can’t stand, but have to put up with for over ten years now. Tolerance. That is the common trail the West / US seems to be walking on the topic of Turkey.  It does help to poke the Sultan in the side every once in a while with his arch nemesis living in the US.  If things keep going the way they are with Turkey, I wouldn’t put it passed the Donald to even have Gulan swing by the White House for a chat. The Sultan would storm around in his Castle; oh yes, he has a Castle………….a huge one, built just for him. Okay, back on track!

In typical times, a Ottoman, Persian photo op would not stir too much anger in the Arab world, but the Arab world is in crisis right now and it shows no sign of calming down anytime soon. Qatar is being played as a Pawn by both the Ottomans and the Persians. That Pawn has a history of not doing as they are told when orders come from the Arab Headquarters, Saudi. Enter the pending, and actually current King of Saudi and you have yet another dangerous flashpoint. Qatar is not behaving and they are not behaving because they believe they have other larger bodies to hide behind, to include the US. Is everyone out to end the Arab’s dominance in the region? Is the West / US / part of the plot? What is the best way to strike back at this anti-Arab agenda? Who is the one that needs the poke in the eye to show the rest of the plotters just how serious you are? I wonder when an Iranian naval vessel is going to be fired on. Guess how my book about the next world war starts? I just hope it doesn’t happen before I’m finished writing. I hate when I predict something and then it happens before I can show how smart I amJ