CALIPHATE AND MURDERED TEENS IN ISRAEL? CAN IT GET ANY WORSE

Just when everyone thought the Middle East could not get much worse, well, it did!

Announcement of a Caliphate nation?

Not real news; it’s been stated before right?

Wrong!

Statements like this in Yemen and other seized areas over the past ten years have been made, but this time it’s different and here is why.

Who has the ability to prevent this from coming true?

Answer!

The countries who don’t have the will to do just that.

Who will try to prevent this from taking place and in the end most likely make it worse?

The very countries, what is left of them, where this new nation has been established, that’s who.

Oh, and for anyone who is out there that thinks this Caliphate event is just a media stunt, need I remind you of a nation called Afghanistan and the group named Taliban?

So, just how bad is this announcement for the region?

Again, the question comes up……who will stop them?

If you answer with the Iraqi army, just keep an eye on Tikrit and try to remember a week ago when that same Army stated they were in control of the oil refinery.

As for Syria military, well, its mission of pounding the Rebels into submission inside of Aleppo has now turned into striking the ISIS groups as they move tons of weapons into Syria from fallen Iraqi military units.

Think those orders from the Persians went over well?

Just when the bad news seem to be focused on the ISIS gains, the next worse thing possible for the region took place.

The murder of the three missing Israeli teens!

In near normal times for the region, whatever that might be, this act would trigger a harsh response from the IDF; one so harsh the innocent people in Gaza would be running for cover.

But as we all know, these are not normal times for the region.

The recent so called “agreement” between Hamas and Abbas’s following place pressure on a cooker that was already near the point of failure.

Just days after this great announcement of unity took place, the kidnapping took place and just about everyone who knows the region began to realize what it would lead to.

As I sit here typing this post, I am fairly convinced the operation to totally destroy Hamas’ leadership and military power may be about to commence.

Calls for “restraint”, like so many in the past few years, are coming from those who Israel no longer relies on and worse no longer trust.

If an operation to destroy Hamas is truly about to begin, then who comes to the aid of Hamas?

Iran?

No!

Assad in Syria?

Remember, he doesn’t control his own forces…. the Persians do.

Hezbollah?

No longer.

Their losses are staggering and the threat form the ISIS groups is at their doorsteps in Lebanon…so much so, they have begun to train their Women to fight… imagine that!

So, just what does Hamas have going for it right now?

Nothing?

Wrong!

Who is the most talked about organization in the region?

ISIS.

What is ISIS?

Sunni.

What is Hamas?

Sunni.

Who understands this more than anyone?

The IDF.

So, what plan is Israel getting ready to launch?

Does ISIS threaten Jordan?

Yes.

Would Jordan oppose the IDF launching on ISIS positions near Jordan to include inside Syria?

How many times has the IDF already attacked inside of Syria?  

Look, let me make this very clear.

The Israeli government is at a crossroads and it’s a crossroads they are willing to travel.

The region is under threat by instability and even some of Israel’s old enemies are more than willing to see someone destroy the Mutant Beast that has climbed out of the Hell hole called Syria.

Tonight or the next 48hrs might just change the course of history for the region.

It has been close several times in the past few years, but this is different.

There will be no repeat of 2006 or 2008 for the IDF.

Those who threaten the future of their nation may be dealt with all at one time.

The term Crisis in the Middle East may be about to take on a whole new meaning.

THE BATTLE FOR TIKRIT… HOW WILL IT TURN OUT?

All the talk is centered around the so called “battle for Tikrit” and what the outcome may mean.

Let me put this as simply as I can.

What it means for Maliki is everything.

What it “means” for the ISIS groups is not as important as some would think.

If the ISIS groups lose control of Tikrit, does that mean the tide of their assault has been turned?

No.

Does holding Tikrit determine the future of the ISIS operation?

No.

What little reputation Maliki has left is lost if Tikrit is made into a measure of his capabilities.

As a matter of fact, making the attack on Tikrit into a major issue was a very bad idea.

What is the ratio for defenders to aggressors?

What are the odds of standoff weapons being able to win back door to door fighting parts of the city?

What is left of Tikrit if this campaign takes more than a month with areal bombings and indirect fire events taking place day after day?

As I’ve said before, look at Aleppo for the answer to that question.

What are the repercussions of a failed battle to retake Tikrit?

Ask that question of the Shia still in Baghdad!

I can assure you, the intentions of the ISIS groups are simple.

Hold Tikrit and make Maliki destroy it with his own military as the dead civilians are counted on social media.

Holding Tikrit as Maliki destroys it; that is the plan.

By the end of today, the stories were already spreading of the Iraqi military being unable to enter the city itself.

Attacking Tikrit it what appears a very weak operation is nothing short of a disaster for Maliki and anyone that supports him understands that.

Does anyone wonder why the Russians suddenly talked about being unwilling to sit and watch Maliki’s government fall?

Does anyone underestimate the fact Maliki is now in the same shoes as the Eye Doctor in Syria?

Both are leaders who hold no value to the Persians or the Tsar.

What is of value is the land that is now under pressure from a force both fear; the force of Sunni Radicals who have no intent of negotiating with anyone at any time in the future.

Last but not least.

Was the attack on Tikrit and attempt to pull the forces back as the gathered to lay siege on Baghdad?

Yes!

Was this Maliki’s idea?

No.

Did he go along with it?

Well, .like the Eye Doctor in Syria, he has little choice.

The Puppet of Baghdad no longer influences   the future of Iraq. 

KERRY: MODERATE SYRIAN REBELS COULD HELP IN IRAQ? GOOD GRIEF!!!

Have you ever wondered why some people are appointed to the positions they work in?

I know, silly question, but this is a classic example of someone who doesn't even stop to realize how asinine   their statements sound to those caught in a crisis.

Syrian Sunni “moderate” Rebels?

You mean the same ones who for the fourth of fifth time in the past three years had their senior leaders kicked out for corruption?

You know, the same ones the US Department of State holds meetings with….drinks highballs with and then rushes to tell DC, “They may have a plan”!

Is Kerry talking about the same Syrian Rebel Moderates that can’t win a victory against Assad or the ISIS in Syria even when their families’ lives depend on it?

Let me guess, someone at  the US Secretary gave  a five minute briefing on the history of one of the tribes, such as the Jarba” and suddenly, the US State Department has a “plan”!

Can you just imagine the reaction of the people, the ones that even pay attention to what the US Department of State says, in Iraq when they heard this statement?

There is always one true way to consistently show one’s amateur viewpoint and that is to say something “official” and then realize just how moronic it was received.

I have to admit, I was almost going to write about the retired American General who commented the “worst was over in Iraq”, but then I came upon this story.

Yep, just when I thought I had a real winner  statement to talk about, Secretary Kerry sprinted across the finish line…. Not to be denied the title of Armature of the Day!!!

Good Grief!! 

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

The US Department of State continues to sail the high seas with no clue where they are heading.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nowsyrialatestnews/553521-kerry-moderate-syria-rebels-could-aid-fight-on-iraq-jihadists

THE SKY’S OVER IRAQ…. A CIRCUS IN THE MAKING!

Well, anyone that has ever struggled with the issue of “air space coordination” must look at this scenario and head for the liquor cabinet.

Syrian Jets flown in Iraqi airspace as Iranian drones and cargo aircraft zip around the sky….all as the US  UAVs… F18’s and God only knows what else is in the same area.

Do you think anyone is allowing the US to control the airspace?

And now, “Used” Russian and Belarus fighters will be showing up?

Somebody toss a tent over this Circus!

Let’s talk about those “ Used Russian / Belarusian / fighters for a minute.

Who is going to be flying those missions?

What Iraqi pilot is qualified to fly combat sorties with these airframes?

What ground crews are prepared to service these aircraft?

Does this story seem just a little odd to anyone other than me?

When was this deal struck?

Did someone just happen to have a Wing or two of fighter aircraft sitting on a runway somewhere near by to sell?

Ok, if this didn't sound strange enough, let me toss another few points into the soup for everyone to consider.

How much longer before Saudi and Turkish or even Jordanian aircraft are in the mix?

Oh ya…. I forgot Egyptian and the cherry on the top….. IDF aircraft…drones… transports…

Man, what I wouldn't give to see the radar signatures of what is coming from where and what is going where….and you can bet the US forces there can see it all.

And what does this mean to the future of Iraq or Baghdad?

Nothing!

Syrian jets bomb a town on the Syrian border inside Iraq and who died?

Yep… Civilians.

If the ISIS and its allies can keep from form conventional movements as they advance, the ability of air-power to turn the tide of the conflict is practically nonexistent.

So, when the “fighters” show up in the “next few days”, who is flying them?

Whose armaments will be hanging off the wings of these fighters?

Whatever Mr Maliki was referring to today can only mean one thing; the crisis called Iraq is about to get a whole lot more complex.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28042302

KING ABDULLAH’S MEETING WITH THE TSAR’S AL CAPONE

King Abdullah has a sit down with one of the Tsar’s most valued Thugs…. Kadyrov?

Why?

Does the King believe Kadyrov holds the keys to keeping the ISIS rebels from moving on Jordan?

So, Kadyrov would do this out of the kindness of his heart?

What is this meeting all about, really?

If King Abdullah is worried about ISIS and their allies moving on Jordan, would he not turn to the GCC or Egypt?

What does this Chechen Black-market version of Al Capone have the King needs?

In all the actions of the Middle East over the past several years, I don’t know if any has been more intriguing than this one.

As for the King traveling there and not seeing the Tsar, well, he doesn't need to; his meeting was with the Tsar’s lead Henchmen.

 So, was the meeting with Kadyrov or was it a message process with the Tsar?

Who really gave the King any information he could use?

Does Kadyrov make international policy movies without the Tsar’s blessing?

What was the topic that kept the King and the Tsar from meeting?

I would love to hear the Saudi’s version of this meeting.

Rumors flew today of ISIS groups preparing to move on Jordan and it suddenly seems everyone in the region is in danger of falling to the Borg called ISIS.

Do elements of ISIS have dreams of moving on Jordan?

Probably.

Would the rest of the region stand by and let this happen?

No!

Even the US would draw the line in front of Jordan.

Ok, again; what does this guy bring to the table?

Let me take a shot at this one and I know many are going to read this and say, “he’s been drinking again”!

Here it is!

The Chechen fighters working with ISIS are actually working for the Tsar’s Thug!

Yep.. That is what I said.

Who did his Father fight with, for?

What is he?

Is he Chechen?

Is he Muslim?

Does the Tsar know this?

Does the Tsar want these Chechen Warriors, and trust me that is just what they are, plotting in Chechnya?

Deploy them.

Keep them occupied somewhere else.

Keep the price of oil on the world market above 100 dollars a barrel!

Keep the cash machine that is rebuilding the Russian Empire moving forward!

Sound crazy?

How well do you understand the mind of the Tsar?

Does anyone else believe this theory?

Why did the King go to meet him?

To ask for his help or to ask him what it would take to pull the most experienced fighters the ISIS owns away from their ranks before they move on Jordan!

Sound crazy?

Well,  I would be willing to bet you the Tsar and the GCC aren't laughing.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/jordan-abdullah-ii-chechnya-extremist-jihadists-threatening.html

IRAQ’S BATTLE FOR PERCEPTION IS ALREADY LOST

If reports of the main oil refinery at Baiji has truly been captured, even temporarily, then the battle, the battle for “Perception” is all but lost for the Iraqi government.

Stacked on top of that story is the possible pending capture of the dam at Haditha.

So, if you’re sitting in your house in Baghdad and you hear the government, what is left of it, telling its citizens not to fear for the city is safe, what do you believe?

When you wake in the morning, your neighbors warn you the gas lines are over a day long and that is if you have the gas to sit in line for a day to get a tank of gas!

As you talk to your neighbor, you hear the media talking about the US Secretary of State asking the Iraqi government to expedite some form of “coalition and you think to yourself, “Really…… do the Americans think the ISIS will settle for a “coalition government”?

By midday, you’ve heard once again the Iranian’s warn the US over involvement in the Iraqi crisis.

Ok, stop me when you start to get the picture!

What Iraqi citizen truly believes there is a way out of this?

At what point does staying in Baghdad become meaningless?

Does the ISIS and its supporters have to occupy Baghdad?

What Has Baghdad become?

The final sanctuary for the Shia?

Let’s face the truth, Baghdad in nearly under siege and the world knows it.

Rescue:

Who comes to the rescue?

Can Baghdad be rescued?

Is it the Iranians?

How do they achieve such a goal without killing thousands of trapped Shia Arabs, the same Shia Arab they claim to be protecting?

Is it the West?

Who?

The EU?

Not even close.

The US?

How?

As good as the US military is, can it conduct close order combat with citizens mixed in with the attackers?

How many citizens will that cost?

By the end of the day today, I heard the words I knew had to be coming from the so called “experts”…… Baghdad is where the Iraqi government, Shia will make their stand.

Two days ago, the message was, the assault to retake lost land was underway with busses stuffed full of eager young men fresh from marching up and down the street waiving privately owned weapons in the air.

Soon, those buses will encounter those who do not fear parades!

Tonight, I sit and wonder if the Battle of Baghdad is about to take place and something tells me that battle is already over!

The Shia must pray for one thing and one thing only…..over extension!

A battle hardened group is a very difficult adversary.

An overconfident force moving on an enemy that is far more capable than Iraqi’s is an entirely different story.

Will the ISIS move on Jordan, Kuwait or even Saudi.

In the history of conflict, overconfidence has gone hand in hand with disaster.

Iraq is all but lost, but what force will stop the ISIS.

Will Iran invade Iraq?

What seemed impossible just a few days ago is now on the table for consideration.

One group gets a vote on this issue and it is not the West.

Enter the GCC.

Yes.. Perhaps it’s time the GCC show the world a new day is coming in the Middle East.

Peace is not based on one religion or one sect.

Peace is a goal of all civilized people and perhaps someone is about to show they believe in being civilized.

THE PENDING BATTLE IN BAGHDAD??? IS IT REALLY GOING TO HAPPEN?

It seems the Sunni forces are still making advances towards Baghdad, or at least the media  paints that picture.

If the Shia are “rallying” by the thousands, then how could this be?

Let’s take a look at the details that are most likely being overlooked by those who claim to be “covering” the events in Iraq.

Here is a hint, you can be standing in front of something and still not see it or understand what it means.

A few days ago, I mentioned the difficulties the Sunni fighting groups will eventually face if they are triumphant in dividing Iraq.

Good governance does not come from the barrel of a gun!

Leading a nation is much more difficult than dividing one up.

But, I've already covered this topic and something else has to happen before any of this truly becomes an issue.

The Shia must be defeated in Baghdad and that battle, if it happens will not take place like anyone imagines.

Let me cover a few tenants of Conflict that will come into play if the Battle for Baghdad actually takes place.

FOG OF WAR:

Time and time again, we have heard how the standing Iraqi military outnumbers the ISIS and those supporting it.

Does anyone really know the numbers of the ISIS?

Have they changed since the conflict got underway?

Who knows what the real numbers are?

Where are they?

Are they preposition ed already inside of Baghdad waiting for the siege to begin?

What targets would these units have and how would the Shia holders of the city insure the world they can hold the city if this “inside” threat takes place.

Yes; the doctrinal definition of “Fog of War” has many variants and we will see them come to light with the pending events in Baghdad.

CLOSE ORDER COMBAT: 

Yes the Iraqi military has fixed wing and rotor wing support that has some level of precision weaponry, but are they good enough to take on an enemy that is intermingled with civilian populations clusters?

As advanced as this process has become with the US, it’s a constant fact that civilians are killed when an enemy mixes in with local civilian members.

If the battle for Baghdad takes place in the outskirts of the city, how does the Iraqi military avoid killing innocent members of its own population?  

Short answer; they don’t and that is exactly what the media will cover!

Now, the advantage in this possible pending battle goes to the Shia forces given they are once again supported by a universal law of combat; the Defender has a 3 or 4 to one advantage.

Here is the problem with that “theory”.

When the defender has less resolve than the aggressor, than that ratio must go even higher to hold true.

A battle hardened group versing a force  full of members who only days earlier where walking the streets as ordinary citizens brings the whole question of “advantage” into question.

Once again, let me go back to the issue of “inside” forces placed at strategic locations inside the city.

QUALITY OF FORCE:

What is the “quality” of the forces set to defend Baghdad?

What is the “quality” of the force moving on Baghdad?

One has had training with contracted firms in scripted exercises set to show their leaders, who spent a great deal of money, how combat ready they appear to be.

One has been in conflict inside of Syria for over three years with many seeing combat on an almost daily bases.

I think my point is made here, so let me move on.

UNITY OF EFFORT:

Are the Shia member from the border region of Iraq and Kuwait willing to be killed over a Northern oil field in the northern sections of Iraq… an oil operation that does nothing for the quality of life of those Southern Iraqi Shia members?

Are they willing to be killed for Western town they have never seen or never will?

Does the Sunni force marching on Baghdad intend to take control of Baghdad or force the current government from power?

Of the two groups, who is truly more “unified”?

RESOLVE:

Are the Shia united in their effort to save Iraq?

Are the two Heroes now inside of Baghdad singing off the same sheet of music?

Just how strong is the “unified effort” the Sunni force must break through?

Ok, by now, my point should be clear.

The battle for Baghdad, if it does come, will not go as the Shia who are parading in the streets hope it will.

They have the most difficult task of all; keeping the confidence of the public, a public that is watching the Sunni fighters continue to march forward toward Baghdad.

The Sunni force has the task of destroying the confidence not of the more elite forces the Shia will place in their path at the gates to Baghdad, but of the people who walk the streets of Baghdad.

If a true exodus begins, and actually one already has begun, then the Shia will have the tactical advantage of not having to fight door to door, killing their own people in the process.

An enemy “in the open”, in amongst buildings that are empty is a target for weapons designed to kill in mass and the Shia will use them.

Here is the endgame!

When that time comes, what is left of Baghdad?

What is left of the Iraqi government?

Google the city of Aleppo and look at how it appeared four years ago and then look at a picture of it from June  of 2014.

You will have your answer!

SECOND ORDER EFFECTS AND THE DREAM OF KURDISTAN!

Well, as expected, the issue of Kurdistan has popped to the forefront once again.

And what do you ask has brought this issue back on to the international table?

If you guessed the crisis in Iraq, you win the prize.

As I said last week, did anyone really believe the conflict between the Sunni and the Shia would not be leveraged by the Kurds?

Imagine the Kurdish forces sitting just outside of Mosul and Kirkuk  watching, once again, the Arab Shia and the Arab Sunni killing each other; depleting both of their abilities to challenge a pending Kurdish push into the region of Iraq and Syria they claim as their own.

It’s the same vision they had when the conflict in Syria started and it’s the same vision they counted on when they struck a “deal” with the Turkish government; the same Turkish government that hopped moving the Kurds into Northern Syria would alleviate the pressure in Turkey.

From the beginning, lest say back in 2003, some predicted the inevitable breakup of Iraq into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions.

If anyone still doesn't believe this can take place, then please expound on why it will not happen?

Well, before everyone jumps on board the “ I told you so” train, remember what I explained just a few nights ago.

It’s one thing to destroy, kill and rejoice in “victory” by firing weapons into the air, but it’s a far different story when the partying is over and it’s time to build a functioning society.

Yes, the Kurds have an advantage in this process given the oil that just so happens to be under the ground they claim.

But, what of the Sunni and Shia areas of Iraq?

Can they actually function as a separate state?

Can this “vision” the Sunni fighting groups really come into existence?

Can the Shia areas of Iraq avoid being nothing more than a territory of Iran?

Yes, all three seem to have a vision of what they want Iraq to become, but is any of it achievable?

Does reality factor into the process at any point in the near future?

To the West lays what was once known as Syria.

To the North stands the nation that no one wishes to recognize; Kurdistan.

To the East stands the Persian Kingdom ordering Arabs to kill Arabs all in the name of the same religion.

And to the South; well….. That is just about all that is left of what was once called, “”The Middle East”!

MUQTADA  AL-SADR  AND  QASEM   SOLEIMANI…

IS  THERE  ROOM  FOR  BOTH?

Why does it matter that Qasem Soleimani and Muotada al-Sadr have taken leading roles in the crisis in Iraq?

What point did I drive home the first night I addressed the events in Iraq?

What was it that made the Iraqi forces crumble and run away?

The lack of real leadership!!!!!

That is what these two bring to the event that Iraq is so despertly lacking.

Leadership and leadership that gives those who are virtually on the verge of defeat the hope, the inspiration to hang on.

Are both of these men enemies of the West?

To the Shia facing   the onslaught of the ISIS, do you really think that matters?

Soleimani is a proven War Hero for the Persians, one who earned his standing in the bloody conflict between Iran and Iraq!

Yes, I know; how ironic Soleimani, nearly mortally wounded in his battles with the Iraqi Army is not ridding to their rescue......such is the fate of Warriors.

Will Soleimani be able to hold Baghdad?

Will the Shia Militias follow him as they followed him in Syira?

Yes…. Soleimani has been pulled from the battlefields of Syria and no one understands that more than the Eye Doctor barricaded in Damascus.

Soleimani is a Master of his trade craft and he knows the arms taken by the ISIS from numerous Iraqi military outpost that have fallen will find their way back onto the battlefields of Syria.

I bet I know where the Syrian Air Force is concentrating their efforts as I write this post!

Soleimani, understands the price his campaign in Syria will pay and he knows in his heart the actions of the ISIS were created for just this reason.

He of all people realizes the assault on Iraq was based upon relief for the faltering Sunni offensive in Syria, yet as any loyal Military Leader does, he followed orders and moved on Baghdad.

Some men have the power to make other men hold fast just based on their name and Soleimani is such a man.

What the Shia have gained is hope…..hope based on having a real leader rally to front and command, “Stand Fast”…

So, that brings me to my next point.

What does the arrival of Soleimani mean to al-Sadr?

A Persian hero rides into Baghdad…one far more dynamic than even al-Sadr?

Is there room in this Iraqi conflict for two Heroes.. one .. Arab and one Persian?

When al-Sadr places his head on his pillow tonight, what does he dream of?

An Iraq under the command of the Persians?

Didn’t al-Sadr deliberately pull away from his once Persian Masters?

Is there room for al-Sadr and Soleimani?

Lets sit back and pay witness to yet another page of history for the nation once known as Iraq.

IRAN....IRAQ AND THE ENDLESS “PERCEPTION” PROBLEMS FOR THE WEST.

All the talk today seemed to center around the US “talking” with Iran over the crisis in Iraq.

Would that “talk” include the sharing of military operational issues?

I find that highly unlikely.

So, what would these “talks” truly center on?

Assurances the Persians will not totally exploit the situation to their own advantage?

Some in the US Department of State are most likely naive enough to believe such a commitment could be achieved, but I can assure you this level of conversation would come at a price the US may not understand.

What has been the number one concern with the GCC for the past three years when the Western partnership is mentioned?

If you guessed, the concept of “commitment”, you win the prize.

The phone rings in Riyadh and the conversation becomes, “the US is going to ‘talk’ to the Iranians over Iraq”!

“What are they going to talk about”?

“What are they going to tell us they are talking about”?

“Is that really what is taking place”?

If this conversation was taking place without the damage of the past few years, the strength of the ties might keep this event inside the world of the doable!

But, that is not the case and I have to wonder if anyone stopped to think what is the impact of yet another round of US / Iranian  “talks” and how would the GCC perceive the event?

Will the US / West / gain anything from “talking” to the Iranians?

Could it be the “talks” are a warning to not overextend the Persian response?

Given the status of the West / US / in the region, would the Persians even pay attention to such a message?

And, here goes another “what if”!

What if the strategy, one I would have trouble giving the West credit for, was to set up second front for Iranian forces?

Would the US risk the image of over ten years of conflict lost for the sake of letting the Iranians decide the fate of Iraq?

Just what is it the US and the Iranians are talking about?

Those in the area want to know and more importantly they want to believe whatever is discussed will not bring them harm.

Ok, will the Iranians openly deploy into the Iraq?

No…..at least not yet…..

Who would appose this event?

The GCC?

The West?

The Tsar?

I’ll give you a hint.

He commanded the Mehdi Army Miltia!!!!!

Yep….

I will give my reasons for believing this tomorrow.

IRAQ AND THE TWILIGHT ZONE

Once again people like Fareed Zakaria rush to the smell of money and spurt out meaningless statements about an event, this time Iraq, as people like me sit back, listen and say, “ why does the media think if you have an Arabic name, you are automatically an ‘expert’ in the Middle East”?

George Bush???????

Really Fareed?

Did you attend the same international school of foreign affairs that Nancy Pelosi slept through?

Ok, I’m not going to waste anymore of my time on these paid talking heads…what they say is complete waste of time and time is not what the West  has to waste when it comes to the investment  made in Iraq.

Let me address the issue that seems to be the distraction of the day, and yes I said “distraction”.

Baghdad!

Are the troops that are loyal to Maliki capable of stopping the ISIS and “others” advance on Baghdad?

Yes, they have equipment and yes they are larger in numbers, but is that enough?

Talk today was centered on the “advance” being stopped north of Baghdad, or slowed according to whose reports you listen to.

Here is the hint to that report being accurate or not.

Do the Sunni groups desire to occupy Bagdad?

Do they wish to shove the Shia back into the East and South and have the Maliki government step down?

My bet is that is exactly what is taking place.

The Sunni groups are full of battle hardened Warriors with years of experience in Syria.

Yet, they have a few strategical challenges they have no history of overcoming.

1.      Their ranks have grown as they moved forward…those deciding at the last minute to change sides… join the wining team and it’s these new members, who are not known, not trusted and unproven in combat that must be dealt with…..do you keep them….kill them….turn them down…. The bottom line is , as they advance…they change…and dealing with that change is a dangerous issue.

2.     As is the case every time a revolutionary group strikes out to “change” the course of a nation or region, the devil is in the details!  How will you govern… who will run the utilities… who will keep the society moving back towards “normal”….what is “normal” under the oppressive mindset of the Sunni groups?   Yes,  killing and shooting and blowing things up is exciting to unemployed young men who have no vision of a real future for them…but when that is over…what is left?  Ask the Rebels who won in Libya?

3.     It’s one thing to speed down a highway in a Mad Max looking convoy…..stopping to get gas and post a few YouTube clips, but soon, perhaps today, the Iraqi forces, along with the Iranian units already with them…yes… you can bet on that one… they will force the Sunni groups into a conventional conflict….one that will require maneuver, communications…communications the Iranians will jam and monitor....logistical resupply and detailed planning to respond to a force that is in a defensive position and armed with standoff weapons. Yes…the initial Shock of the blitzkrieg forced the poorly trained and poorly lead forces in front of the movement to flee…but that has been the cycle of battle for thousands of years and that is the cycle that is taking place now in Iraq.

Bagdad will not fall to a insurgent Sunni force, but it may collapse, more than it has, under its own weight of incompetence.

In the Rubble, the ones that will pick up the pieces and put something back together again will be the Persians!

Ah yes… Once again… the Arabs will have to turn to the Persians for guidance and that always comes at a price.

Soon the machine of sending young Arab men from Iraq into the killing fields of Syria will crank back up…..soon… mothers and fathers and young wives will see their men being placed into the ground for the sake of the Persian vision for the region and the Eye Doctor Puppet that serves the Persian Masters.

Iraq is the new Syria and have no illusions that upsets the Iranians for it does not!

What is important to the Persians is the ability to operate from Syrian and Iraqi and Lebanese land and that doesn't require peaceful cities or a safe society.

Nations is crisis are nation willing to do your bidding.

Iraq has entered into the twilight zone and the Persians really don’t care.

ISIS’s MOVE ON IRAQ       AND AN AGE OLD NURSERY RHYME !!!

As I stated two days ago, it’s not worth the effort to rehash, the history of the ISIS and the like groups that are working with them.

How far are they going to get and what will they do with the areas they have taken?

Both are valid questions, but they don’t address the most important issue; why now?

What propelled the ISIS and those supporting them to make such a dramatic move and to make that move now?

If you’ve not heard it in the media world’s dramatic coverage of people running around screaming and driving off in a panic, then you can hear it here.

If you want to know why this event has taken place, you need look no further than the conflict in Syria.

Aleppo is the key to the resistance in Syria and has been from the early months of the Civil War.

As the Iranian support for Assad finally began to turn the tide, sealing off Lebanon with the support of Hezbollah, and the ability to hold onto Damascus with the help of Iraqi Shia militias, and finally a coordinated assault on Aleppo, the perception amongst the Rebels became, “the tide is turning….defeat is now likely”!

Last month, I spoke of the fatigue that seem to be setting into the Rebel mindset and how this pattern was a classical cycle of civil strife…..wait out your opponent until they have lost their zeal for support.

This is the course of action the Iranians took and it was a course of action the West supported.

So, what did the Sunni movement do?

Exactly what I predicted on this blog over a year ago; counter strike in Iraq!

Can Iran afford to support two current conflicts in geographically separated areas?

Can Hezbollah be counted on now expanded all the way over into Iraq?

The answer is no and the enemies of Iran know this all too well.

Will Iran perceive this action as a GCC sponsored action?

Absolutely.  

Is that perception based on reality?

Does it really matter?

Is the West willing to salvage Iraq?

No.

Do the Iranians understand this?

Yes.

Do the Turks understand this?

Yes.

Does the Tsar?

Oh ya….

Last but not least, what message does the West’s inaction signal to the GCC?

Oh ya… what does the Eye Doctor think of this event?

My hunch is he better hurry with his operations against Aleppo for the Tide me about to shift once again.

Now….. the Turks?

What does this all mean to them?

Are the nightmares of a Kurdistan creeping back into the dreams of Egodan?

Is there a grieving family member close by that his staff can beat up?

The Kurds?

Did this entire event play right into the hands of the Kurds?

Yes.

Did they see an event like this coming?

Yes.

Did they realize they could simply sit and wait for the Sunni Rebels to chase the Iraqi forces out of the area the Kurds wish to occupy?

Yep…why get your forces killed and be accused of being the aggressor when you can let it all take place by the hands of the Sunni?

The West?

Well, just another crisis the Progressive mindset will be completely incapable of dealing with.

The Tsar?

Interesting point to ponder here.

What options are on the table for the Tsar?

Come to the rescue of the Shia ?

What’s in it for the Tsar to do so?

Come to the aid of Iran?

What’s in it for the Tsar?

Sit back and watch the GCC wonder if they kicked a bee hive that may lead to them being stung to death?

Could it be the old nursery rhyme is about to come true?

 All the King’s Horses and all the King’s Men. Couldn’t put the Middle East back together again?  

THE DIVISION OF IRAQ…WHY IS ANYONE “SHOCKED”?

So, what “shocked” me today about the news from Iraq and the fall   of yet another major city; a city with significant military importance… not just Mosul, but Tikrit!

I tell you what shocked me; it was the people who looked into the lens and said, “I’m shocked at what has happened”!

Really??? Shocked?

If you were “shocked” by what is taking place in Iraq, then you need to back to watching reality TV or reading a good fiction book.

From day one, the false image  of a growing, modernizing Iraq Defense force was nothing more than a contractor’s dream….equipment… training… Billions. Billions of dollars and in the end, a force that takes off its uniforms and drives away from the very public it was sworn to protect.

I’m not going to travel down the worn out road of describing who the ISIS is or how they have grown to the point they could have pulled this off…well… how they pulled it off is something I will address simply because I want to.

As for who the ISIS is, I will leave that to the paid “talking heads” on the networks!

Instead, let me take the time to give my explanation, theory, as to how this happened so quickly and why the collapse of leadership in the so called Iraqi force took place in a matter of hours, not after days of sustained heavy combat.

Look, it’s truly just about this simple!

You can put new uniforms on a young man.

You can teach him how to march.

You can teach him how to almost take care of the weapon he is allowed to have, but usually without ammunition.

You can even teach him how to look Simi proficient in an exercise as his leadership and those who made money training them look on.

All of this will help you give the appearance of a force that is viable and may even instil some hope or pride in an uninformed public watching them march by.

But here is what you can’t buy from a contractor.

Here is what you can teach with one or two thirty minutes speeches given by a leader who wakes up at 1000am, shows up to his office at 1200…stays until 3pm and then leaves to “go to a very important meeting”!

Pride…. Honor…. Dignity…. Respect…. And most of all….Patriotisms!

If a soldier is a soldier because it’s one of the better paying jobs in the region…..a region that has few jobs by the failure of a corrupt and dysfunctional government, then who can expect that soldier to stand fast and give up their life for that government?

How does a soldier stand and fight for a leader they know is no leader?

What makes a unit take a stand in Mosul if they believe all that their leaders care about is gaining wealth and power?

Failure……. That is the end-state and those who put this force together, like some fictional fighting unit right out of central casting in Hollywood, knew it from day one; but then again…there was money to be made and never get in the way of making money when those who place money before pride, honor or their nation come to the table.

So, who were these ill prepared troops facing?

Are the ISIS members in Mosul for the money or social status?

Did they drive towards Tikrit for the sake of sacking the next bank full of US dollars?

What are they?

Are they fanatical fundamentalist?

Are they battle hardened warriors who have tested their metal time and time again on the battlefields of Syria?

Do they have leaders who are just as skinny as they are?

Do they have leaders who have been beside them in countless battles, many against a superiorly armed enemy utilizing ruthless tactics?

Do they follow their leaders because they only follow the same religious dreams?

Are you starting to understand the difference?

This was a clash of battle hardened units driving towards a group of well-dressed pretend soldiers with absolutely no professional leadership and no honorable government leading by example.

What other result could anyone have imagined?

The outcome was preordained for years….from the very day the fight in Syria became a Sectarian conflict……The Persians knew it…..the Ottomans knew it and yest… the West knew it!!!

Before I let this topic go and begin to think about how to address what might be ahead for Iraq, let me ask a simple question that once again, I’ve not heard the “Professional Media” and all their talking heads address.

How is it, that the most modern intelligence apparatus  in the world, accompanied by the one of the best human intelligence machines in the world….hint … I’m talking about the US and the Iranians here…. Cold not detect a force of this nature closing on Mosul?

Was this truly a “surprise”?

Was everyone truly “shocked”?

Or, did the progressive West....once again…just hoped this would all go away?

How could this happened?

Shocked?

I don’t think so!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iraq-nineveh-fall-reasons-reactions.html

THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ COMPULSORY CONCEPT

"PRIDE... THAT IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!

Last night, I ended my comments by stating two questions:

1.  How do you make a compulsory system work?
2. Is it the right thing to do?

Let me start tonight with a caveat to both questions.

How do  you make such a concept work in the Middle East / GCC?

Is it the right thing to do in the UAE or any other GCC member state?

Before I travel down the path of how to make it work, let me take on the caveat part of the first question.

Does a compulsory concept require a different approach than in other parts of the world?

Here is the hint, the wealth of the nation will have an impact on the success of the process, if the target audience groups are youthful citizens of the UAE.

Does social standing lead to a separation of expectations and more importantly, should it?

Can the government hold to the standards set forth in the new law?

Simply put; can the rules apply to everyone without obvious “exceptions”…..exceptions that will become visible to everyone paying attention?

Ok, I won’t beat around the bush!

This concept must start from a standard that cannot be compromised….the “playing field” must be as level as humanly possible, or failure is the future that will become unavoidable.

The fact that some categories have different time requirements is salable to the public as long as the government has a sound explanation as to how these timelines were developed.

It’s the age old truism of, people can accept bad news as long as bad news is explained in detail and shared at a level that is understood, and given by a leadership that is based on honor.

So, can a compulsory concept work in the UAE ?

Yes, but with strong caveats and standards abided by from day one!

Ok, with that question out of the way, let’s see if I can paint a picture of what it will take to be successful in this extraordinary adventure.

Last week, I addressed the issues Saudi faced with its new, ambitious vision for the future of its military.

Several of those concepts will be expanded upon as I spell the plan for success.

People:

The ground truth about this journey is the fact that the people who make up the initial training and the first operational, compulsory based units will set the stage for future success or failure.

Everyone within a certain category “must” be eligible to serve, but does that require all of them must serve?

If you are eligible, does that guarantee you will serve?

The Vetting Process:

A group of “recruits” are assembled at  a processing center.

What actions take place to insure these citizens are worthy of the prideful act of wearing the Uniform of the country they belong to?

How does the country insure the right person is being trained to fill the right job?

Does a mass production line concept work?

No!

The right people for the right job with the right training, linked with the right organization; that’s a cornerstone that must be placed from the very beginning.

Are there those who will be thanked for their reporting to duty, but sent home for the right reasons?

Yes.

Here is the dangerous sticking point.

As was the case in the US and other Western nations, this “excuse …medical… emotional ect..ect…ect… cannot be the backdoor for letting influential members escape their duty to the nation.

Honest evaluation with a rejection plan based on compassion and integrity is critical to keeping the honor of the military process.

Simply put; those who are turned away, must be turned away with dignity or better yet, given options to serve in other capacities.

Word of mouth travel fast and in the age of social media, that word travels around the world in a matter of minutes.

Perception is reality until large sums of time, energy and funds are expended to disprove a false impression.

So, the people and the vetting of those people is more than important, it’s as I said, the cornerstone!

Training:

To be honest with my readers, the training part of this plan, as I read it in the media, a dangerous way to get one’s information I know, is more than a little concerning.

When I look at how the training aspects of a modern military changed over the thirty-two years of my military life, I have to wonder what expectations the UAE military will have of members who server months rather than years?

Short-term training based on simplistic task is a possible fit unit members who will have limited roles in a military unit.

Here is the historical problem with that process; short-term members equates into expensive, labor intensive, repetitive training.

If something is relatively “ cheap” to achieve, but you must do it over and over again, the true cost is much higher than anticipated.

Along with that economic fact is the issue of quality.

High turnover often goes hand in hand with low productivity.

If a “cook” is given two months of military training, paid low wages, given rank that is lacking respect, then how vulnerable is that position to corruption and or low productivity?

Is a chain stronger than its weakest link?

No.

If a unit has members who are there because they were made to be there and they were given minimum respect and nearly no admiration, how vulnerable is that unit?

How effective is that unit in time of crisis?

I spent many of nights taking the time to insure the TCNs / Third Country Nationals / who worked in my chow halls understood the value I placed on them…. I shook their hands…laughed with them…ate with them…..I gave them the respect I knew they were looking for and in the end, they kept my people safe……

Teaching these qualities……the ability to make leaders understand the importance of “short-term” members… members who are not assigned the glorious jobs… that is just one level of training that is seldom factored into the process.

Training is the next cornerstone that will insure a sound foundation, a foundation that leads to a military strong at all points of contact.

In short, training must hold the same value, dignity and honor at all levels and cannot rest with just those chosen to lead.

Get this wrong, and the process becomes a waste of national treasure both in terms of funds and more importantly in terms of dignity.

My parting comment on this topic…. When it comes time to take the unit picture…give out the unit award… find the simple member…. Stick them up front and ask them to smile….. trust me….it never failed me in over thirty-two years… money is not always the only thing the followers are looking for.

Exposure:

Here comes one of the hardest parts for leadership to attempt, especially those who worry about their own careers more than the ability of those they command to execute their mission.

Build a unit, train them, equip them, make them understand the vision of leadership and then give them a hill to climb!

Put them to the test and make that “test” real.

Make that test challenge their skills and more importantly, make it put their honor on the line.

Yes, viable, evaluations, away from home and against odds they never thought they would see.

This is the test of their metal… this will make them understand there is more at stake than just their individual respect.

Pride….Test their pride and test it at a level beyond their expectations.

This is the unique aspect  of the United States Military…. It’s ability to truly test it’s members and make them risk all they have worked for.

Do this  and in the end, every unit in the UAE military will be stronger, smarter, faster and yes… they will believe….they will believe in their “unit”!

You see…… this is the goal… this is the end-state of what the government is looking for…. a youth that has pride.. pride in their accomplishments….pride in their unit and last but not least….pride in the nation they represent!!!

There is no Arab Spring when “Pride” is the cornerstone of a nations youth!