RUSSIAN PLANNING AND HOW DOES IT WORK?

Well... if you noticed, last night I stated the Tsar would not hesitate to move into the Ukraine...yes.... the Crimean is still part of the Ukraine.. at least for now....

When I woke this morning and read about the two airfields... Areal Ports of Demarcation / APODs / in the eyes of military planners.... I realized the Tsar was underway with his operation.

Now to say he is underway with his operation is to imply this whole thing was a deliberate action.

Well, that may be how the common, layperson perceives the statement so let me clarify what I mean here.

Every modern military has a process for contingency planning.

I can assure you the concept of having to "defend" / occupy the Crimean and even all of the Ukraine has been written time and time again.

Military plans have levels of detail that are simply amazing and can easily number in the thousands of pages especially when it is a regional level "war plan".

Yes.. I said "war plan".

If anyone truly thinks the Russian forces have only spent the last six days figuring out what they should do and how they should do it, then they have no concept of how planning actually takes place.

What the Russian did and are doing is executed some modified version of a more complex plan.

In military terminology; Russia is executing "Crisis Planning" based on Deliberate Planning.

Why is this important at this point in time?

Why is this worthy of me mentioning it rather than talking about what the West might or could do in reaction to the events of today?

Well, for one thing, the Western military planners started tracking this event from the assumption the Russians would be executing a known plan with mods based upon political inputs.

Again, why is that important?

As yourself this question.

How much effort has gone into knowing what these Russian plans might be?

How much effort has the Ukrainian military gone to in order to be prepared for just such an event taking place?

Here is the point I love to make.... How many Ukrainian Officers know interracial parts of the Russian plan and have changed their minds on who they side with?

I just love that one given I know the Russians are asking themselves the same question.

Sides are being and have been drawn.

Those that might jump ship are anticipated, but it's the ones who are not anticipated that can come back to haunt both sides.

Ok, back to the real issue at hand.

If we accept the fact the Russian forces are executing a version of a set plan, then the actions that may come next are not simply based on what some outside player says or comments on.

Simply put, the events of the next few days will not be some knee-jerk reaction.

It's the reason we say troops at the airports without magazines in their weapons this morning.

At this "phase" of the plan, it was anticipated they would not be needed or might even be used to send a quiet message to the West that, "things are not that bad yet".

Finally; Here is the most important thing to remember about deliberate military planning and it's an age old saying.

" No plan survives contact with the enemy"!

Everything seems to be going the way of the Russian, but that will change virtually in a flash.. and that flash will come from the muzzle of the other sides weapons.

Even then, "guidance" on how to far to let an event escalate becomes part of military planning, that is up until the event begins to change the perception of the operation.

At that point it time, things historically get out of hand and deliberate planning gives way to field level leadership..

Who are the "field leaders" the Russians  have sent into Ukraine / Crimea?

That is  a very....very ..important question and it will come up soon!

THE UKRAINE AND THE TSAR... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok; I've been away for several months and a few folks have asked why. Well.... as I approached the end of a long career, the amount of time needed to "wrap things up" became more than time consuming.

Well... that's all behind me now getting back in the rhythm of providing my opinion of what is going on in the world won't  be that difficult.

Here is the difficult part, a great deal has changed and not much of it has been for the betterment of the world as a whole.

My intent is to quickly get back into the practice of daily injects and I am going to do my best to make that happen.

Ok; lets get down to the real work.

Where are we..... Middle East... South America.... and now Russia!!!!

I think the best process for getting things started again is to work  from a standpoint of generalizations and then move back into daily actions.

Having said that, here is the most pertinent comment I can possibly make given the current events in the Ukraine.

Whenever a nation, insert US here, allows a person who was appointed to a position of importance in it's agency that deals with international, governmental affairs to speak without understanding the repercussion of what they said... well.... history is ripe with stories of stupidity just prior to conflict.  

Having someone get on a unsecured cell phone and have a conversation they didn't think through much less realize it shouldn't have taken place " in the Open"...and have this conversation captured by a world leader who is more than just paranoid, but has a history of espionage.... need I say more?

Armature hour is a dangerous show when the audience is already worried about your "intent".

Let's look at the Ukrainian event from the Tsar's eyes for just one minute and lets do this by playing one of my favorite games... "Let's assume"...

Let's assume the Tsar believes the West is not so reckless or incompetent that they would accidentally provoke an uprising in Russia's backyard.

Let's assume he truly believes the West has deliberately provoked the events in the Ukraine.

Let's assume the Tsar believes this is taking place as a counterweight to his actions in the Middle East ..... Syria... Iran.....

Now, let's assume there is no way on God's Green Earth the Tsar is going to allow the Ukraine to slide into the "Western Camp".

Finally; let's assume the Tsar sees these actions as a prelude to provoking further unrest in oh....let's say.... Georgia!!!!

Ok, I hope everyone is finally getting the "big picture" here. 

What is taking place here is easily one of the most dangerous episodes of ether planned or accidental brinkmanship in decades.

If we accept the issue of Putin's perception, then we should try to move on to why did this really happen?

Was it truly a executed plan by the West?

Was the attempt to get the Ukraine into the EU and thus pulled away from Russian influence actually the "plot"?

My opinion is no, but then again, often the plans of one or two well placed idiots / madmen/ can set the world on a course it will find hard to stop...

Here is my question and it's admittedly of little importance right now with the exception of some academic pipe smokers staying up all night trying to empress their student bodies.

Is what is taking place in the Ukraine the next 2014 version of the Tunisian Virus?

If you look at my post from three years ago, you will see my theories on why I referred to the Arab Spring as a Virus.

So, is this the Ukrainian Spring?

Is this another example of social media being able to provide the tools of action in a society that was already suffering a lack of common vision?

Is social media the instrument of destruction when governance is unable to provide a society what it's looking for?

I know this discussion is already out there and I fully realize just how irrelevant the question is given the dangers we are facing, but the question stands.

What truly has brought the crisis in the Ukraine to a boiling point?

Once we ask the question of the impact of social media and the Arab Spring environment, I would like to add one additional question.

Where does the death of American Exceptionalism come into play or does it?

What are the long term repercussions of the worlds leading authority on freedom suddenly being removed as the world leader on the topic by its own leader?

If the President of the United States tells the world it will no longer "lead" but will fall in with the rest of the "pact", does that mean the world was ready for a leaderless future?

Is this how we really came to the events of the Arab Spring and the spread of social crisis?

If the Quarterback of the most successful Football team in the world walks up to the podium  one day and proclaims they are stepping down so the other teams can lead, does that mean the other teams are able to win the Super Bowl?

It was one thing to remove the US from the world stage, but did the leaders of the US take any actions to guarantee someone or some "Group" was ready to fill the void?

Is  the US responsible for what is taking place in the world?

Did we walk away from the table without a game plan?

Here is the scary part of that question.... is it too late to matter?

Well... I could dwell on this subject for hours, but lets get back to my original intent..... Big Picture review and a stab at what might happen next.

Actually, I think I may ready for the topic of, 'what might happen next'!

I've told a few of my coworkers and close friends what I predict may happen next.

The Tsar is not just a skillful political leader, he is a master of reprisal... just ask his deceased KGB / Russian Mob enemies.... if you can find the wholes their bodies were tossed into.

Will Russian troops move into the Crimean?

To me, that is like asking.. who is buried in Grant's Tomb.

Russian already has the Crimean secured and the Ukraine leadership.. those smart enough to know better... understand this.

Is keeping the Crimean enough for the Tsar?

No!

Crimea is the excuse.... keeping Georgia and the other regions that may see the events in the Ukraine as a opportunity.. that is the objective.. and that objective will be achieved at all cost... and listen to me when I tell you and when I say.. .at all cost!!!!

Are NATO forces and Russian forces about to go into conflict over the Ukraine?

No.

Is the Tsar capable and willing to create a crisis of equal or great proportion somewhere else...somewhere just as important to the West / US?

Yes!!

And where might that be?

If you guessed the Middle East, you understand what is taking place far better than you give yourself credit.

That's the next topic worthy of review.

What does the Tsar do to relieve the pressure?

That  will be tomorrow's topic along with any feedback on what has taken place in the past 24 hrs.

One last word of warning:

If it all starts to go bad for the Tsar, don't think for a minute Russian forces will not role into the Ukraine. 

Anyone who says that cannot happen is ether a fool or an liar!

Oh ya.. did anyone talk about Syria.. Egypt ... Venezuela today???

Gee.. Assad gets yet another pass.... for now..

The Tsar may give him and his Puppet Masters in Tehran marching orders sooner than they know. 

Oh ya.. the Tsar will not "ask" for help!!!

It may be time to pay up and pay up in full!