AGAIN… THE FEAR OF “BAGHDAD FALLING” IS TOPIC NUMBER ONE.

Several months ago, the topic of Baghdad falling to the IS forces was contemplated, disused and then brushed aside.

“Just too hard to do….. Defenders of Baghdad are far more capable than the ‘rest’…. IS forces can’t get there”….

Yep, all of these excuses, were given as to why this catastrophe would not take place.

At that moment in time, my theory, the one I thought had more credibility than the rest, was simple.

I.S forces didn’t really want Baghdad, nor did they need it!

Well, that was then and this is now.

What changed?

What made them change their minds?

If you guessed the US, you win the prize!

When the US decided, “it had to do something”, something is exactly what took place.

When you step to the mic and state, “ we will destroy them”, you need to be prepared for an enemy who’s resolve just jumped quantitatively!

Go where your enemy is not!

Strike where your enemy would never anticipate and thus be unprepared for.

What was the theory of the air strikes?

The “Coalition” would degrade IS’s ability to attack!

The air strikes would force the IS forces into a defensive mode.

They would “melt” into the population and find another day; heck, even I accepted part of that one.

Western War Planners are often experts on the history of warfare.

So, how is it the “Coalition” didn’t realize the IS forces may win the phycology of the conflict by moving on the golden ring…… Baghdad?

Can, they take Baghdad?

If they move into parts of Baghdad, can they hold what they take?

What will the Persians do?

What will the Coalition do?

10,000 IS forces near the gates of Baghdad?

Kobane sits at the brink of capture?

Islamic State Forces executing a true Two Front Conflict!

Where is the confidence of those left in Baghdad?

When does the panic set in for the Assad camp?

As I write this post, one fact stands nearly undeniable.

The Islamic State Forces are not only winning on the ground; they are winning the perception war.

Will they take Baghdad?

Will the forces holding the city crumble?

Will the Persians just stand by like the Turks?

Who is going to stop the Islamic State Forces?

Is this really going to happen?

As bad as this crisis is, if we begin to see street to street fighting in the city limits of Baghdad, the panic throughout the region will increase dramatically.

Yes, the siege of Baghdad is back on the table, but whose fault is that?

How many times has this comment been made?

“Can it get any worse”?

If you are wondering what I think, here is my answer.

We are about to see the Persians place a new price tag on the nuclear talks.

If we write that check , will the Israelis allow it to be cashed?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/10/12/10-000-ISIS-militants-near-Baghdad-Report.html

WHERE DID THE TURKISH "RESOLVE" GO?

Who was demanding "Western" intervention in Syria three years ago?

Well, one of the voices was sounding from the Turkish capital.

But, to be honest, Turkey is just one of several who have said one thing, but done another.

So, what is the issue as of today?

Why has the Turkish not stepped in to remove the IS threat in Northern Syria?

Is it because the IS forces are keeping the Kurds occupied?

Well, that is one of several reasons.

Are the forces of IS becoming more than just a concern for Turkey?

Yes.

Is Turkey holding out for more concessions from the West?

Is Turkey waiting for someone to promise there will be no Kurdistan?

Well, if so, that it's an easy deal given the history of the West abandoning the Kurds in the past.

Is Turkey concerned of being caught in the quicksand known as Syria?

Well, I would bet you the Turkish military leaders are voicing just that issue.

Are the Turks waiting for a "partner" in a long talked of, "Safe Zone"?

If so, that will be a long wait!

Are the Turks worried of not looking as professional as the region's image of them?

Can anyone imagine if the mighty Turk military was to look anything but modern in a pending conflict?

What would the regional image be then?

So, what is the real incentive for the Turks to step onto Syrian land?

Oh ya..... what is the conversation between the Tsar and the Turks on such a topic?

Why won't the Turks attack?

Well; pick one of the topics above and you have a good chance of being correct.

Is there a chance of a game changer?

Yes.

Islamic forces killing Turks!

If that happens, look out!!!!

Could someone arrange such an event?

Stranger things have happened before!!!!

THE DRAGON… ZOMBIES AND HONG KONG.

Ok, so what in the heck does the current Ebola scare in the US have to do with the protest in Hong Kong?

Great question and one I will have fun playing with!

First off, let me get a few “scene setters” out of the way.

How long as the Dragon been worried about a Chinese version of the Arab Spring…Tunisian virus… yep… I still call it that.

Well, go back and look at my post from the week the Arab Spring started and you will see my answer even back then.

Short answer…. From day one!

Does the Dragon believe what is taking place in Hong Kong is their fears coming true?

Yes.

Does the Dragon realize the similarities to Tiananmen Square only reside on the protester’s side?

Yes.

What does that mean?

It means the method of dealing with Hong Kong cannot be replicated.

Why?

Easy….. times have changed and there is this thing called “Social Media”.

Can the Dragon shut down ALL abilities to utilize social media in Hong Kong?

Yes, but at the price of bringing the city to a standstill.

A modern day city’s life blood is the internet and Hong Kong dies without it.

So, the similarities between Hong Kong and Tiananmen rest solely with the protestors.

So, what options does the Dragon really have?

Ah….. Here is where the story gets very interesting.

Option one:   Do nothing!

Yep… That is not going to happen.

Option two:

Wait it out!

Large, inner city protest seem to have a life cycle of about five or six days, depending on the weather.

After that, the fun seems to fade and many people have to head back to work/ school.

Also, crowds also begin to cycle on a 24 hr clock.

Large numbers leave during the day to get rest.. go to work.. or get homework up to date.

During those predictable cycles, the authorities can move in and then deny the reentry to the primary protest zone.

The problem then becomes, the crowds get upset.. the numbers increase and then a new location is chosen…back to square one…. Case study… Egypt!

As for the Dragon, the issue here becomes “image” and in the land of the Dragon, image is everything.

 This option shows the Dragon to be weak, unable to solve its problems and indecisive!

All three of those are unacceptable to a Dragon dreaming of ruling the free world.

So!

Option three:

Crush the resistance!

Tiananmen Square round two!

Many have stated for days now that option is “off the table” for the Dragon!

Most have commented the Dragon’s image would suffer a huge economic blow… a blow they would not risk!

Enter the Zombies!

Back in the Dragon’s lair, Beijing, the plan is set.

Wait…

Watch..

Listen…

Is the West growing more and more worried about the Zombies of Ebola?

CNN/// FOX… MSNBC.. if anyone watches MSNBC, and yes BBS all continue the live coverage of Ebola in the US!!!!!

“Are there more… How did it happen… is the nation ready… will it spread to Europe”?

The story feeds upon the tabloid press as the public grows more worried of anyone who might cough.. spit or fall down!!!!

The Dragon determines it has a few days left…it can wait… the hunger to strike is tamed by the knowledge the eyes of the world may be shifting towards the Zombies!

It just needs the Western Media to do the Dragon’s bidding.. keep scaring the US population.

Keep the US leadership worried about elections in five weeks.

Keep pulling the world’s eyes away from Hong Kong and the Dragon’s victim.

Oh yes… and the Dragon has learned a lesson from the Tsar and his actions in the Ukraine.

When it comes time to swoop down on the masses in Hong Kong, be dressed like the Hong Kong Police.

For you see, there is no Dragon there that day..

No.. .The Dragon is back in it’s lair!

And on that day, the Dragon will say, It respects the right of the Hong Kong Authorities to insure the safety of the good people of Hong Kong!

How many bodies will the Dragon consume?

Will anyone in the West really care as they peek out from behind the curtains to see if Zombies are walking the streets yet?

SO.  WHAT BECAME OF THE UKRAINIAN “CRISIS”?

Took off the past few days to get a few other things out of the way, but it’s a new month and time to get back to business.

Ukraine?

Where did that story go?

Yes the flavor of the week is Islamic State with a side dish of Ebola, but why did the Ukrainian conflict fall off the media radar?

Lack of blood and violence?

Well, that has a huge impact on the attention deficit public, but are there other reasons?

Here is one everyone might want to try on for size; the Tsar!!!!

From the very beginning of this Ukrainian story, I’ve stuck to my guns on what is taking place.

What is taking place in the Ukraine is no “accident”.

The “end state” of this adventure will be based upon what the Tsar desires and it appears he desires a halt in-between phases!

If we look at what was taking place just prior to this current “calm”, we will understand the big question.

Just prior to the Russian deployment of forces into South Eastern, the Pro  Tsar forces were about to be routed.

Was that an outcome the Tsar was willing to accept?

Hardly!

Had the process been executing according to the Tsar’s plan?

Well, no… but such is the case of many complex, strategic plans!

What happened next was all too predictable.

The Tsar simply up the stakes and the West closed their eyes.

With Eyes Wide Shut, the West accepted what they didn’t want to face, Russian forces in Ukraine.

So, with a plan not going as “planned”, the Tsar placed his plan back on track.

Let’s face the facts.

If the Pro Putin forces would have been routed, the Tsar would have been facing the greatest failure of his career.

With the reality of Russian forces on the move in Southern Ukraine and the Tsar’s resolve to take the event to any level necessary to succeed, the West did the only thing it could do; tell the Ukrainian government to stop!

As of today, where does the event stand?

I’ll give you a hint.

Winter is nearly on the region and the Pro Putin forces now have a secure section of the Ukrainian East to reorganize from.

Could they have done the same from just inside the Russian border?

Yes, but the message / perception would have been all wrong for the Tsar…..Defeat!

This Winter the Pro Russian forces will be hard at work……hard at work of plotting the next phase of the Tsar’s plan to retake the region.

Does that mean things are quiet for now?

Yes..

Is that music to Western ears?

Yes..

Are the dangers in the Ukraine or Eastern Europe over?

Give Poland a call and ask them.

YEMEN AND WHAT REALLY MATTERS TO SAUDI?

Once again, and predictably I might add, the stability of Yemen moves to the forefront, or at least from the Saudi perspective that is.

I was reading the attached story by Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor and was struck by a comment that I had not considered.

In the eyes of the GCC leadership, the Persians now control four historically significant Arab capitals: Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and now Sanna.

So, what is truly more important to Saudi and thus the GCC?

The defeat of a proxy organization, admittedly a dangerous one, or the Persians?

Can a Sunni based movement be manipulated by the Persians to kill fellow Sunnis?

Yes and it is already taking place.

Can this same movement be utilized to disrupt the Persian plans?

Yes, just look at Iraq.

So, in the eyes of the Gulf States, where is the real threat?

Are the events in Yemen more important than the events in Syria?

Depends on who you ask.

What will the new event in Yemen lead to?

Did the GCC members take part in the mission to bomb Syria for the sake of the West?

Did the GCC take part in order to show the Persians they have the will and the ability to fight in an integrated fashion?

If yet another “statement” needs to be made by the Saudis and the GCC, will it be made in Yemen?

Will the Peninsula  Shield forces be used in Yemen?

Where to the Saudi F15 /16s fly next?

If the mission is to “destroy” the “Terrorist”, does only the West get to define who the Terrorist are?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/26/Iran-follows-its-agenda-while-the-Arabs-are-distracted.html

AS ASSAD TAKES CREDIT, WILL THE “COALITION” HOLD?

 As you read this link, skip down to the section called, “right direction”.

Ask yourself this question.

If Assad continues to paint a picture of the West “supporting” him, backed by the US State Department admitting to communicating with him, will the key Arab partners stay?

Can a Sunni government withstand the public press of Assad taking credit for the “cooperation” with the Alliance?

What really gets me is the implied point of, “it’s a good thing they told us and didn’t harm our civilians”!

Remember, only Assad is allowed to butcher his servants, I mean civilians.

How Assad would shape this Western Alliance was the top concern of GCC leadership when they signed up to the US plan and I am sure it’s even more of a topic today.

Can the Iranians and the Tsar get Assad to make even more aggravating statements thereby stressing the US “Alliance”, you bet!

Remember what the Russian strategic goal is here; Western / US / failure in the Middle East.

Will the Coalition Hold?

We are going to find out soon.

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/09/24/U-S-officials-issue-warning-on-Syria-based-threat.html

DOES THE “CAMPAIGN” AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE FORCES LEAD TO WHAC A MOLE?

So, some type of “campaign” is now underway in Syria and rest assured, no matter how well thought out the process was developed by the Pentagon, the politicians will figure out how to screw it up!

Now, that is not to say whatever the planners came up with would work, given one of the oldest rules of conflict; they enemy gets a vote”!

Whac a Mole:

Some have talked about the possibility of this phenomenon taking place once a true “campaign” began against the Islamic State forces, but the reality is, it most likely will take place and it could prove to be the undoing of the “ campaign”!

Leadership of the Islamic State movement understands they have no ability to conduct a  ‘force on force” conflict with their attackers.

They do realize the ability to show they survived and can still strike fear in the hearts of their attackers is the absolute definition of victory.

If 30 days into a Billion Dollar Air Campaign, by the way, don’t fool yourself into actually thinking this is only an Air Campaign, yet another innocent individual loses their head on You Tube, where does the public opinion go?

  If one of the Allies of this new “campaign” looks to their South as sees an out of control Crisis in Yemen, what is the reaction?

If a Jordanian national is kidnapped and executed, what then?

If an IS cell attacks in France?

Is everybody in; all the way in?

The West and its Allies have made their initial move.

It won’t be the last action on the Alliance and it will not be the end of the Islamic State movement.

It’s one thing to say, “this will be a ‘long’ campaign.

It’s another for the public in multiple nations to understand it; just ask GW.

Did the enemies of the Islamic State movement just kick off the next round of “Whac a Mole”?

How many locations can the Western Alliance bomb?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/23/The-fall-of-Sanaa-What-next-for-Yemen-.html

THE RETURN OF TURKISH CITIZENS, DOES THAT MEAN TURKEY IS IN NOW?

A little over two weeks ago, the standard US State Department answer on the support of Turkey for anti IS movement was, “they are really hamstrung by the ‘hostages’ and are limited in what they can do”!

Ok, the Hostages are back!

Now what?

Can the Western / NATO / forces fly out of the NATO airbase in Turkey?

Will Turkey’s military openly support the operation?

Perhaps we should look at this issue from another perspective?

Is the new Ottoman Sultan going to allow the Kurds to come out of the battle with IS victorious?

What is more important to the Ottomans?

The destruction of Islamic State forces or the suppression of Kurdistan?

I bet I know!

Now, is it possible there will be some, “unofficial” support, limited in nature, from Turkey?

Probably enough to placate the West; a West that is desperate not to criticize the Turks in the first place.

Pulling Sunni so called “moderate” forces all the way to Saudi for months of training makes far less sense than simply moving them across the border into Turkey, a military that is very skilled at training to NATO standards.

Is that going to happen?

Is our NATO partner going to play a NATO role?

Some things always take place without fanfare.

Sometimes, some of these “things” are more important than the ones placed in the open.

Is Turkey going to play their required NATO role now that the excuse is gone? 

IF ISLAMIC FORCES “MUTATE”, WILL THE WEST STILL PURSUE?

Rumors upon rumors in the past few days centered around IS forces folding in with other Sunni movements in Syria have perpetuated yet another key question.

If IS forces “mutate”, will the West / US / still pursue the fight?

How many similar movements is the West ready to attack?

Last week, I stated one of the most common forms of survival for Guerrilla fighters is to melt away and live to fight another day.

One version of this tactic is to hide inside a movement much like the one that is targeted, but not currently on the “target list”.

Now, the argument can be made that if an organization is forced to take such action, then “change” has been forced upon them and that change can lead to an acceptable outcome.

If IS forces are forced to go to ground, forced to fold into a like organization, does that render them less effective?

Yes.

Does that mean the battle is won?

Absolutely not.

Here is one of the greatest dangers with this course of action.

It’s very probable the sympathetic attitude towards this group can come flowing to the surface if in the act of “retreat” they are attacked. 

It’s the accepted action of barbaric, uncivilized movements, but it’s an act that is quickly  questioned in a “civilized” nation.

Simply put, if the bad guys hide inside a group not seen as a threat and then they are attacked, the world opinion can turn virtually overnight.

If you doubt me, ask the Israelis about the tactic of Hamas hiding amongst it civilian population.

Who understands this modern day, civilized media driven phenomenon?

Yep…. The Leadership of IS; that’s who.

Winter is coming to Northern Iraq and Syria.

A winter where unmotivated, poorly lead Iraqi forces and war ravaged Syrian units will take every opportunity they can to avoid combat…. By the way…combat in the freezing cold is much...much more difficult than in the heat of Summer.

As for the Kurd forces…. winter is an excellent time to train….plan and demand more advanced weapons from an over energetic Western leadership so called “ coalitions”.

Remember…. The Country of Kurdistan must be the endstate of this conflict and new Western weapons will ensure that vision……at the anger  of the Ottoman Empire.

If IS mutates…… will the West pursue?

I know my answer.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/563897-key-al-qaeda-branches-urge-united-jihadist-front-against-coalition

DID THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES JUST SAVE THE GCC/ WESTERN RELATIONSHIP?

First off, it’s important to realize if someone really wants to understand what is taking place in the Middle East, they have to look outside of Western media sources.

Again, today, I’ve found yet another superbly written article on the topic of how the fight with I.S. will be executed. Simply put; Dr. Karasik knocked the ball out of the park!

Before I address the importance of today’s question, I want to take a moment to focus on an important part of not only this crisis, but crisis in general and how Western leadership fails to carry a message.

When you read this article, ask yourself, why couldn’t the US or other Western leaders articulate the major details of how this “Strategy” should unfold?

Look at the detail of what Dr. Karasik states here.

Why can these details not be the core talking points for any Western Government’s announcements on the “strategy”?

Spelling out how our Allies will support, why their ability to execute these key task in the plan are far more likely to succeed than if the West tried them, is important.

So, why did it take an article from Al Arabiya by Dr. karasik to give this new “strategy” clarity?

Unfortunately, I think I know the answers….yes…answers…not …. Answer.

Fist off, most of our Western Leaders don’t take the time to “understand” what their staffs are developing.

Gone are the days of true Statesmen, at least in the US.

Everyone is too worried about how the political rivals may leverage every single event that takes place.

None of them stop to realize, if they would just take the time to listen to the level of detail that is worked out in the multinational working groups, they would be able to sound a little more intelligent on the topic when standing at the podium.

Here is the second answer and it’s more pathetic than the first.

Western leaders, unfortunately, understand all too well the level of interest or understanding their voting members worry about.

Simply put, a poorly worded, thought out answer is sufficient and knowing that leads to leadership who sees no need to take the time to “learn”.

Ok, off my Soapbox and back to the question at hand.

Did the Islamic Forces success just save the GCC / Western relationship?

What level of forgiveness is the are the GCC partners looking for?

How convinced do they need to become the West / US / is coming back to their side of the “change movement” in the region?

Is this reformed alliance one of “convenience” and thus short lived?

As the US drives towards greater energy independence, do the GCC partners see a limted, rekindled love affair here?

I’m not going to answer the key question of the day, but I will end with one of my favorite, timeless sayings from the region; “ The enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”!

My twist to this saying has always been, “for now”!!!!

Well done Dr. Karasik….well done!!!

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/14/Analyzing-the-emergence-of-the-GCC-4-against-ISIS.html

OBAMA’S PLAN FOR ISLAMIC STATE FORCES. DOES IT BENEFIT AL-QAEDA?

I read a great article by a very knowledgeable writer the other day, link attached, and it addressed a topic that has swirled around the US announced plan even before it was official.

In short, the issue is this.

Does degrading the Islamic State Forces increase the odds of Al-Qaeda / al-Nasra / regaining the momentum in not only Syria, but the region?

Does al-Nusra become the “acceptable” level of Sunni resistance given the complete incompetence of the FSA?

To the West the answer is a resounding no!

But, what about to the young Sunni followers who have absolutely nothing else to latch on to other than fighting and talking?

If IS forces are not glorified by forcing the West to attack them, then what of other less radical groups?

Has the Radical Islamic movement mutated so far out of hand that the likes of Al-Qaeda is acceptable at some level?

Just how much of a consideration was this given when the US planners were developing the new “Strategy”?

This author goes on to address the topic of groups, even Al-Qaeda itself, perhaps modifying their actions.

Does that sound outrageous?

I will tell you that is the history of any radical movement for the past few thousand years.

In the inner chambers of some world leaders and power brokers, the idea of finding some organization that can bring stability to the region is being addressed.

Is that organization the FSA?

Is that organization a new hybrid yet to be announced?

Is that organization a mutated / renamed / version of Al-Nusra  or even Al-Qaeda?

Is there something inside a Middle Eastern Cocoon? 

If you think this is outrageous, then your are probably living West of the Nile River.

If you are looking to bring some form of balance to a region of the world in crisis, then you probably pray on Fridays!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/563424-back-to-front

THE “PLAN” FOR COMBATING ISLAMIC STATE FORCES….WILL IT WORK?

I’ve purposely avoided posting for the past three days, although  I don’t like do so, as I waited to hear the President of the United States divulge his “plan / strategy” for combating the Islamic State Movement.

By the way, just because the US President gave a quick little explanation as to why he and his staff continue to address the IS forces as ISIL or ISIS, that doesn’t mean the world will follow.

So, back to the question everyone who worries about IS worries about.

Will the US strategy work?

I waited a few days to hear this strategy, and then spent a day pondering what it would lead to or what it would be impacted by.

If you have followed me for the past few years, you know exactly where I am going with this.

Did the strategic planers capture the possible second order effects topics?

Did they think through the class Law of Unintended Consequences?

Yes, the overarching question is, “will it work” and I will end tonight as I have for the whole month; asking a question for my readers to ponder.

Having said that, let me list the issues that must be addressed if anyone has the slightest hope of answer this most important question.

After listening to the US President’s speech, I had to prioritize my doubts.

Here we go:

How does the US support the Free Syrian Army, if you can call it that, and not protect them from Assad?

Who is bombing the FSA?

Islamic State Forces?

No; at least not with Iranian barrel bombs…yes…. The same Iran we are supporting in Iraq!

So, the US and it’s so called Allies, notice the Turks backed out, supply and train a FSA unit.

Supposed this unit defeats a IS force in a given location and the next day, Assad’s forces attack that FSA force?

Does the US respond?

Next:

So and FSA unit that is supplied and trained by the US and it’s Allies is engaged in combat with an Al –Nusra force?

What does the US do?

Were  Al-Nusra forces part of the President’s speech?

Does the West take on the image of fighting only Sunni movements as it supports Shia Persians in Iraq?

Next:

Lebanon?

If Islamic State Forces dissipate into Lebanon, and trust me, dissipating is exactly what they are going to do, then does the US bomb them in Lebanon?

If they operate out of Lebanon, does the US attack them in Lebanon?

Remember, the US President’s words were, “anywhere they exist”!

Next:

Turkey?

An end state of a defeated IS movement and a reinvigorated, armed, PPK / Kurdish state?

Ya…right…

A Turkey who is given absolutely none of the credit for solving the Syrian Crisis?

Ya…. Right…

Next:

Islamic State Forces / movement in Africa?

Nothing recruits better than being the underdog when it comes to a Western Super Power Pounding on a group who shares the same sect of religion or beliefs.

In the move Andromeda Strain… it is discovered that if they blow the virus up, it will only grow stronger!

Next:

Yet another Proxy war?

Yes, this starts with the US President stating this is about IS and it’s horrific acts, but where do our enemies take it?

Where does the Tsar take this event?

Where do the Iranians take it?

One thing about conflict the US President may have overlooked; you enemy gets a vote!

Ok, I could go on and on, but I think my point is made.

Defeating a movement is far more complicated in the 21^st century than planning a conventional war with a conventional enemy / state.

Killing the enemy is one concept.

Killing the movement is a whole different issue.

What is the core of this and any movement like it?

Lack of hope….. the absence of true governance…. No sense of any possible future.

Does this sound like the babble of Progressive Liberals?

Yes.

Is it almost as impossible to achieve as defeating a Ghost like enemy with Air Power?

Yes.

Defeat a “Vison” with a better Vision!

Can it be done?

I know what can’t be accomplished, but I will not answer the core question I started this topic with.

The vision of the GCC to create jobs, industry and education and in the end…..hope….that is the answer for the region.

That takes vision, dedication and sacrifice and in the end it will require “change”.

I know… a word the US is really sick of hearing.

In a matter of days or weeks, the Islamic State Forces will disappear into the shadows of winter.

The weapons will be hidden.

The troops will blend in with a population the West will not openly bomb.

The West will declare victory and pull the mission….. Remember a place called Serbia?

A few months after that, a new group… a new movement will begin to destabilize a region of the world already destabilized.

The new flavor of the day will be upon us and the crisis starts all over again.

Hide to fight another day…… That is what we are up against and that only if our real enemies don’t turn this into something more than a quick media stunt to answer critics.

Remember this... I called the Arab Spring the Tunisian Virus for a reason.

51 DAYS OF GAZA…..SO ….WHO WON?

A simple question today, but one I have held off on for over two weeks now.

How won the 51 day conflict in Gaza; this time around?

To event attempt to find an answer, if there is one, let’s look at what was accomplished on both sides.

Is the gap between Hamas and Fatah / Abbas wider now than before?

Yes.

Remember, this is the same Hamas that attacked Fatah members and took Gaza less than ten years ago.

Did Israel once again have the perception placed upon it that it lacked “resolve”?

Yes and even worse, the perception problems now festers within the Israeli population.

Did Iran gain valuable information on the IDF from the conflict?

Yes.

Did Hamas fully feel the pressure of not being able to move in and out of Gaza from the Sani thanks to Sisi?

Yes.

Is that what Sisi wanted?

Yes.

Was the US / Israeli relationship pushed, once again, to the limits?

Yes.

Was this relationship damaged to the advantage of Iran?

Yes.

Was the infrastructure of Gaza destroyed beyond an even in the past?

Yes.

Will it be repaired anytime soon?

No.

Where the Palestinian people left feeling more divided than ever before?

Yes.

Does that leave their youth vulnerable to new movements; you know who I am referring to here?

Yes.

So, think about it.

Who was the winner here?

Israel?

Hamas?

Fatah?

Abbas?

Sisi?

Iran?

I know my answer, but what is yours?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/hamas-fatah-reconstruction-gaza.html

DID THE PUTIN JUST SAVE “NATO”?

While the Russians are experts at detailed strategic planning, they have had a history of not understanding the concept of Second Order Effects or the Law of Unintended Consequences.

If you ask them or those who have studied their planning philosophies, you will get an argument that they look at these “issues”, but they just don’t weigh them to a level the West would accept.

Side Note: Anyone who argues the West is “good” at this process is a fool!

So, the question becomes; did the Tsar just stumble into a classic example of one of the two processes?

Did he intend to give the NATO partners a legitimate reason to revitalize the concept?

Do the critics of NATO now have reason to become believers again?

Here is my favorite question.

Does the Tsar realize what may have just taken place?

What does he think has caused the announcement of this new NATO “Strike force”?

Last but surly not least; does he care?

In his mind, is this potentially revitalized NATO become anything more than a Paper Tiger?

Does the political “resolve” of those leaders who control NATO change?

Are they truly willing to draw yet another “Red Line” in front of the Tsar?

So, one of two things just took place.

1.  The Tsar inadvertently gave his old arch enemy new life….NATO!
2. He knew full well what he was doing and simply doesn't care!

Did Putin just save NATO?

THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES…HOW TO DEFEAT THEM?

 After the events of today, it’s impossible to even approach a topic today that doesn't involve the topic of the Islamic State Forces.

For all the talk and all the rambling at the political and talking head level, the core question continues to be, “ what can be done”?

What can the part of the world that is opposed to this movement do to stop what is taking place?

Here are a few cold hard facts that cannot be overlooked.

When a world that is still, at least for now, dominated by Western media sees events such as the ones today, how do most of the people really feel?

Those in the US are “outraged”!

Those in Europe are “saddened and some are even angry.

In India?

In China?

In Africa?

In Russia?

In South America?

Did it make the news?

Yes.

Did it impact them to the point of stopping what they were doing and joining some US Department of State Coalition?

Probably not.

Just a few short days ago, a few hundred young Syrian men were marched out into the sands of Syria, heckled as if they were sheep, stripped to their underwear and then shot in the back of the head.

Not one!!

Hundreds… at one time!

By now, the storyline here should be getting clearer.

What is “outrageous” in the US is not outrageous in many parts of the world.

The US public lives, even if they don’t want to believe it, in a very well insulated bubble.

The loss of one US citizen at the hands of a subhuman group demands world outcry.

But then, it doesn’t happen or at least not to the level people in the US would like.

Tragedy is a daily headline in far too many corners of this world and the desensitized nature of billions simply allows today’s “tragedy” to be eclipsed in a matter of minutes.  

Does any of this minimize what took place?

No.

Does a dose of reality simply seem harder to swallow than in other parts of the world?

Yes.

Here is the real danger for the US.

If left unchecked, the US and it closest Allies may become just as numb to brutality as many other parts of the world have long ago grown accustomed to.

What can be done?

How can the forces of the Islamic State be defeated?

How does America respond to this direct threat?

That is the question the American people are going to have to answer and do so quickly.

When confronted with danger, three things can happen.

Accept it.

Fight it.

Ignore it.

Does the US truly wait for world partners to join some coalition?

Can it afford to?

A long time ago, I took a stand against evil people and I had only one philosophy towards them.

“You do not have to respect me.  You don’t have to like me, but you need to fear me”!

So, how does the US respond to the evil known as the Islamic State Forces?

PAKISTAN!  MORE TROUBLE AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

After talking with a few friends this week, I’m going to try a different approach for the month of September.

If anyone hasn't noticed, I usually pose multiple questions during a typical posting.

This month, I've decided to stick to one theme question and then challenge readers to seek what they believe to be possible answer or is often the case with world events, options for answers.

Pakistan’s new troubles:

Last week, I commented on the two groups that had decided to move on the government of Pakistan at the same time.

I spoke to the character of both Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri with Qadri being the more “interesting” figure.

Well, as predictable as it was, it seems violence broke out in the middle of the so called “peaceful demonstrations”.

As news spread the Army was being called into action, first as mediators, then to keep the protest violence in check, the obvious question came to the surface.

Was the Army quietly supporting the protest?

The betting money is yes!

Protesters take over a major news network and then the Army moves in, but no heads are cracked.

No rubber bullets are fired at the station.

The protesters simply left?

Sound suspicious?

In the world of Police work, that is called, “ A Clue”!

Is it beyond the Army’s capability to create such a movement in Pakistan?

Remember….it is Pakistan.

Also remember, it’s the current Pakistan government that wants the Hero of the Pakistani Military, Pervez Musharraf, in jail for life.

So, just off camera; off in the shadows, who is watching, waiting?

How did the turmoil of Egypt, Syria, Libya, Tunisia start an who was able to turn it into something none of the protesters agreed upon?

Radical Islamic groups own large sections of  the countryside in Pakistan.

What does this turmoil mean to them?

How can the exploit the growing crisis?

Pakistan’s new crisis….. What does it mean to us?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29009549

THE UKRAINE AND ISLAMIC STATE…VISCOSITY IS THE KEY!

For several months now, these two stories have remained at the top of the media food chart.

Yes, the events in Israel temporarily became the shiny object media crows gazed upon, but the significance of the major two topics allows them to rise right back to the top time and time again.

So, what is the difference?

Why are these two stories more than just news sound bites?

Why do they continue to haunt those Western World Leaders to the point of admitting they “don’t have a strategy at this time”?

The answer is not complex and it’s not truly even debatable.

Last week, I spoke to an issue I’ve visited several time in the past few years.

Resolve!

The loss of “Resolve” stacked on top of a deliberate movement to kill American Exceptionalism.

The crisis in the Ukraine and the Islamic State movement are both perpetuated by the lack of resolve in the West. 

Now, I could talk all day as to how this collapse of world leadership, deliberate collapse, has pushed civilized people to the brink of social breakdown, but that would prevent me from striking at the heart of the issue.

You see, this lack of resolve was not by accident.

It is not the byproduct of a cunning adversary, although, I will admit there are those who were perfectly positioned to exploit the death of resolve.

So what happened?

What triggered this breakdown in world leadership?

Perhaps a perfect Cocktail was the issue?

A Cocktail contrived from a blend of modern Progressive thinking, Socialist philosophies towards economic status and the two very important ingredients, social media and the World Wide Web!

The recognized world leader in times of trouble, the US, in 2009, has a new leader stand up and say to the world, ‘ we should no longer lead…. We should be just another member of the collective’!

What consequences did this change have for the world?

Was the Pandora’s Box opened with untold, unmanageable results?

In my opinion, yes!

I could go on and on about this historical collapse in world leadership, but it would only sound like Bashing and we all know if you don’t agree with DC, you are “Bashing”.

So, in order not to sound like a Basher, let me address what most likely is a far more important point than realizing how this happened.

How do we “fix” this, or is this Humpty Dumpty all over again?

Yesterday, a certain person said to me, “well the President is striking Islamic State Forces”, they actually said ISIL forces not realizing none of them go by that name anymore, “and that shows he is not as reckless as GW was”!

Really?

A great philosopher once said, individuals are smart, but masses are ignorant!

Well, this person proved that theory doesn’t always hold true.

Anyone with the qualifications of watching at least one war movie knows limited air strikes will not change the course of a movement.

In the case of the Islamic State Forces, it may make matters worse; just ask Lebanon!

And how does the world view these “limited strikes”?

Simply put, they are doing more harm than good.

Does the world perceive this as “taking action”?

No.

Does the world see this as a political stunt?

Yes.

Does that anger DC?

Oh ya!

Does it impact the tactics of IS?

Somewhat?

Bottom line, is it doing harm or good?

Most likely it’s accomplishing nothing, with the exception of million dollar flight missions to take about 150 dollar trucks.

To be honest, did these missions alter the actions of the IS forces?

Perhaps, but allowing them to freely maneuver the countryside and head to the next potential target is not a “strategy”… there is no strategy in Iraq or Syria, period!

The Ukraine:

Where in the world is this leading?

What is Europe willing to?

Like the GCC countries, the Europeans understand the US will talk from the front, but watch from the rear.

A Western world that is truly leaderless!

In the Tsar’s wildest dreams, it couldn’t have turned out any better than this.

And now a historically, classic response from Europe!

A one week ultimatum!

Do any of them believe this will work?

No.

So why did they do it?

Desperation.

They are desperate to show their societies some level of….. You guessed it….. RESOLVE!

We will see the Tsar’s response over the next few days and I’m willing to bet, it will not be good news for Europe.

Fix:

Is there one?

How does the West restore “Resolve” in a world pushing them to the edge?

Oh by the way, I’ll leave the Dragon out of this conversation!

Well; the buzz word of 2008 and 2009 may be the key!

Change!

I remember the day Ronald Reagan won the elections in the US.

I remember people saying, pride was returning to the US.

I remember the Iranian suddenly figuring out a way to end the Hostage Crisis.

I remember Ronald Reagan standing in Germany and saying, “tear down this wall”!

I remember people saying, “ he is a madman and is pushing the world to the edge of nuclear war”!

I remember the reemergence of “RESOLVE”!

Was it dangerous?

Yes.

Was it even reckless?

Perhaps.

Did the US or the West have a choice?

NO!

A political system that truly is functional has a pattern of cyclic elections.

Having said this, here is my warning.

It is a law of physics that all things that depend on viscosity can reach a point of failure!

Modern society, modern economic networks, world wide networks, depend on viscosity!

That viscosity is founded in human belief.

The belief that things will be ok, or that bad times will go away.

In a world of social media and constant communications that viscosity comes under attack every day.

The slipping point if reached, cannot be saved by one election.

The Western world must hope for resolve to return.

If must hold on until the 2016 elections in the only country able to lead the alliance back to stability.

If this return of resolve doesn’t take place in 2016, if viscosity fails before that, then some other force will have to save the economic engine of the West!

Who has a vital interest in that engine?

Ah yes…. The Dragon!