FOLLOW UP ON RAID INTO SYRIA.

Well, the war of words finally came out today, and it's important to take a look at what those "words" may tell us.

First and foremost, the Iranian response has a little bit of mystery to it, as they often do!!!

The old dry words about Western Zionist actions carried little weight, but the comment about the city of Tel Aviv surly caught the ear of Israel's leadership.

I did find some humor in the Russian comment.

As upset as the Russian could pretend they were, I am sure they are willing to sell replacement units to the Syrian / Iranian governments.

Never miss the opportunity to make a few bucks off a crisis... they might even given them a discount!

As for the Syrian government, they made the most out of the incident.

One of the issues that surly was contemplated prior to the decision to hit the target was the predictable response from Syria / Assad.

One of the consequences of this event was going to be the accusation that the "Rebels" in Syria were being supported by the Israelis and the West!

Of all the statements that could be made, this would be the one that would have the most political / Information Operations / Propaganda value.

Simply put, the attack gave Assad the opportunity to say, " I told you so"!!!

Now, given what the Israeli Air force would be facing in the next conflict with Hezbollah, and there will be one, letting Assad say, " I told you so" is a price easily worth paying.

As for the Syrian comment about a " surprise retaliation", well.....  that will depend on how desperate Assad becomes and if the Iranians allow such an event to take place.

On the issue of comments made about the event, did anyone notice the almost total silence from the GCC countries?

Yep... Go figure!!!

So, did this event cost Israel a few points in the court of world opinion?

Probably, but then again, Israel has been losing that public opinion campaign for years now, so nothing new there.

By the end of the day, I was somewhat disappointed, why I don't know given the shallow level of Western media coverage, over the lack of the "professionals" asking, "what next"?

Will Assad continue to try to leverage the event to shift the story of Zionist, Rebel collaboration?

Maybe, but most who know the region understand this tactic has little to no traction with Assad's real enemies.

Does anyone thing for a minute the Sunni Fundamentalist groups are actually working in concert with the IDF???

Yep,  that story is just not going to get Assad very far, and in reality it has probably already played itself out.

Will Assad try to deflect the conflict by retaliating on Israel?

As I stated last night,  I seriously doubt it.

Iran simply is not prepared to go there just now.

If we see signs of Iran preparing itself for conflict, and trust me we would, then I would become worried.

Iran can't bless off on Assad taking action on Israel in the hopes of it maintaining the actions of a proxy war without fallout for Iran.

Short answer... Iran can't allow Assad to start something Iran doesn't want.

So, how about Hezbollah?

A very different option for both Assad and Iran, with the exception Assad gets no vote on tasking Hezbollah... that authority remains with Tehran.

Could Hezbollah conduct operations that would force the IDF to respond?

Absolutely, but again, the danger would become, who does the IDF respond to?

As I've said before, If Israel is forced to deal with Hezbollah inside of Lebanon, thereby painting a picture of the IDF taking actions inside of Lebanon, then Israel will most likely take all the actions they have been preparing for at one time... namely ... Iran!!

A few rockets from Lebanon into Israel may not be out of the question, given Israel will be very reluctant to attack a second Arab country in such short order.

Again, doing the deliberate planning process at the strategic level of anticipating retaliatory events is something Israel is very good at.

The " plan" to deal with a limited Hezbollah action, out of Lebanon, is ready for execution.... you can bank on it.

This event may lead to other actions and I am worried many have not thought that concept through, but I can assure you the Israelis have!

That doesn't equate into everything going according to "plan", but mistakes are most likely going to be made on the side of Assad, not on the side of Israel.

Oh ya.,... How about all those Anti Air units Syria is said to have?

How did that work for them?

They were  surprised by two jets...... I don't think they wish to see what could be sent towards them..... but then again Assad may just wish for such at thing and when you get right down to it....... that is what really worries me!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jan-31/204406-hezbollah-slams-israeli-attack-on-syria.ashx#axzz2JbHdURcI

ISRAELI STRIKES..... NOW WHAT  DOES IT MEAN?

By now, just about anyone who follows the Middle East has read or heard of the IAF strike in Syria.

Let's get right down to it and see what it means.

 Here are a few simple, quick questions that need to be answered.

Why did Israel strike?

Why did they hit what they did?

It's reported they struck SAM 17 systems still in cargo mode.

If this really was the target, why now?

The "rumor" was they were being moved to Lebanon for Hezbollah.

Now, Israel's most recent warning was based on WMD status and the issue of them being given or falling into the wrong hands, but in the past, Israel has also warned of "other" systems being handed over to Hezbollah or other groups.

Ok, so if SAM 17 units were the target and they were being moved, again the question becomes, "why".. not why did Israel hit them, but why did Assad decide to give the impression he was about to give them to  someone else.... Hezbollah?

We have to accept the fact Assad knows full well Israel would never allow this transaction to take place.

After we accept that fact, then we need to look at why did he decide to execute the plan?

Was he forcing Israel's hand?

Does he believe such an act would change the current environment in Syria?

Would he do such a thing without consulting the Iranians or the Russians?

You see, it's one thing to understand the Israelis took action today, it's another, one that is more important, to figure out why Syria took this step!!!!!

If Assad was cleared to take such a provocative move, that would mean Iran has a "plan" for what this event may lead to?

Does that mean Iran is prepared for war with Israel?

I don't think so.

Does it mean Iran is once again trying to turn the issue away from their nuclear program?

Perhaps!!!

Let me take us to the next question?

Now what?

What does Iran do?

What does Israel anticipate, and I can guarantee you they have though this through, Iran will do?

I've not heard an official response from Iran yet, at least not one that the blogs or open press has picked up on.

That is an interesting indication to me..

It could very well be, Iran didn't really believe the IAF would strike this movement.

Was Iran truly caught off guard?

If so, will they react?

My bet is they will react with words only!!!

Yes, I know they were beating their chest this week declaring an attack on Syria would be seen as an attack on Iran and it could be they even anticipated this event.

But, it appears Israel has now officially said,  " so what"!!!

Ok, back to what the IAF hit and why?

Let's get passed the fact it was a weapon system the Israelis would not allow Hezbollah to have.

Why would Hezbollah want to have a SAM 17 unit?

Are they capable of implementing such a sophisticated system?

I will tell you it is one thing to send a group of people to a "school", but it is a whole different issue to think that a group of "students" right out of a abbreviated course can engage a very complicated, advanced enemy such as the IAF.

Taking your picture or making a You Tube clip showing off your new toys in Lebanon is not what is going to stop the IAF!!!

No one knows this better than Israel.

So, why did they chose now, on Syrian land, to eliminate this threat?

Was it a message?

Was the real event here a warning, more than just words, more than just to Assad, that Israel will enter Syria if needed?

My bet is this is exactly what took place today!!

Ok,

What next?

Simple....

The next move is up to Iran, not Assad...

If Assad decides to " retaliate", and I bet he does not, then he will not do so without Iranian support and that is exactly how Israel will see it.

The bottom line is... Israel has just stated, "we are willing and able to enter this conflict"!!

Now.... How about Iran????

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=301585

UPDATE ON MR. MORSI!!!

I think I said a few times in the past two years, but here we go again; it's easier to complain and promise than it is to lead!!!!

The question running through everyone's conversation today was, " is this protest different then the last four or five"?

Good question.

Here is my stab at an answer.

Short answer; yes!!!

Why?

It's the first one where they have had so many deaths during the protest.

Does this revitalized opposition have the momentum to keep up the protest pace?

It's true the last few have basically fizzled out over the course of a few days, but the important issue was the planners never really went away!

Another critical factor is the percentage of youthful protesters.

These members seem more organized and more deliberate than in the past?

Are some of them the typical Soccer Hooligans?

Most likely, but that is one of the reasons they are having such an impact this time around.

As a matter of fact,  I would not be surprised if the whole " black bloc" group is not made up of or centered around the Soccer Boys!

Ok, here is the short version of this issue.

Yes, Mr. Morsi is in real trouble and the MB knows it!!!!!!

The last time this level of protest was on the radar screen, it was over the Constitutional referendum issue.

During that event it was somewhat questionable where the Egyptian Military may come down on the side of?

That issue is even more pressing this time.

Remember, the Egyptian Military is no real fan of the MB or Mr Morsi, but they have been careful not to turn Egypt into a larger crisis then it already is.

The warning given today by the Egyptian Military was not for the protestors.

It was for Mr Morsi and the MB and the governments watching events in Egypt.

Ok, back to the most important question?

Is the current Egyptian government in real danger of falling?

I'm afraid, the possibility is growing by the day.

If the Egyptian Police cannot contain the violence or the death toll of the protesters goes up, then the Egyptian Military may very well have to step in to save the country, what's left of it.

I heard someone comment today this was all part of the "growing pains of the Arab Spring"??? What an Idiot!!!

As if something positive was going to come out of yet another round of violence and destruction in Egypt.

That is why we keep the "Academic Dreamers" on College Campuses.

They simply cannot function in the real world!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=102523

AGAIN AND AGAIN... THE QUESTION CONTINUES.. WHAT IS IRAN WILLING TO DO?

Time and time again, I have talked about and asked the question; what is Iran willing to do to keep Syria in the Iranian camp?

So, what has changed?

What has made the Israelis once again talk about "intervention" in Syria?

Is the threat of Hezbollah or other radical groups obtaining WMDs changed, become worse?

Hard to tell given the smoke screen that can be placed over such events and the political reluctance to take action only to find out one was wrong!!

Here is one aspect of this topic that has changed and continues to change for the worse.

Iraq!!!

Iran now faces the loss of influence, control in Iraq as it struggles with the events in Syria.

Again, the question becomes.... what will Iran do?

As we struggle to come to grips with Iranian paranoia, we must not forget the threat of actions by Iran's enemies.... namely Israel!

Israel has mad it abundantly clear  they will not accept or allow WMDs in the hands of Sunni or Shi'ite groups!

It's even more important to realize Israel doesn't base it's actions on the "words / speeches / given in the region.

If Israel took that stance with Iran, it would have gone to war years ago!

Two concerns keep Israel planning for preemptive operations.

One is the deliberate movement of such weapons to Hezbollah who would most likely attempt to store them in Lebanon, thus creating a third dimension to this crisis.

The second issue is the loss of such weapons to radical Sunni Rebel units currently fighting in Syria.

Now, one of these events is more coordinated than the other and that would lead us to believe the ability to detect such a deliberate event would be easier... we would hope!

The other, non deliberate event, by the way, I'm not totally convinced Assad would not let the loss of WMDs take place perhaps as one last great act of defiance and " I told you so", creates such a large amount of speculation and "fog of war" the Israelis might actually fear it more.

In both scenarios, the end state for Israel is unacceptable and we all know it.

So, the issue becomes, does Israel wait for ether of them to actually take place or do they find a point in time where they take action to keep ether from happening?

The story linked here hints to that course of action, and by the way, the Israelis have a history of living up to their "hints"!!!!

Ok, back to Iran.

Does Iran contemplate Israel may be closer to taking preemptive actions on Syria's WMD arsenal?

Remember this weeks warring, " An attack on Syria would be considered an attack on Iran"? 

Let me make this thought process even harder to deal with.

How many times have I said Iran might  easily be willing to allow the pending conflict with Israel start with an event that is not based upon the Iranian nuclear weapons program?

How many times in the past two years have I mentioned my theory of Iran forcing the issue outside of Iran?

An Israeli attack on Hezbollah storage sites in Lebanon or in Syria would be just the ticket for Iran if and that is a huge if, they are ready for a conflict with Israel.

Now, the DEBKA story states Iran is contemplating an event that ends in yet another stalemate like 2006 /2008 and 2012.

My bet... Don't count on that theory from Israel... not with Iran involved.

Yes.. interesting and dangerous times continue in the region... oh ya.... have you heard out of North Korea in the past three or four days????

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=301317

http://www.debka.com/article/22716/Iran-actively-weighs-Syrian-Israeli-clash-Iron-Dome-posted-in-N-Israel

SO.. WHAT IS THE NEW. .RUSSIAN... IRANIAN MESSAGE ON SYRIA?

If we assume the Russians and the Iranians don't go a single day without discussion the future of Syria, then we have to wonder about the timely press announcements list below.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/2013127162214699107.html

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-iran-20130127,2760912,3791761.story

Is Iran worried about the Patriot deployments along the Turkish, Syrian border?

Perhaps, but not from a tactical perspective of the weapon's package itself.

Is Iran worried, Turkey wanted these "safeguards" in place before they would agree to slice out a "freezone" in Western Syria?

I can but that, but the reality has become that "freezone" has all but been established by the Rebels now and I'm not sure such a concept is something even worth planning for.

It's old news to hear Iran will not tolerate the overthrow of Assad, at least not until it's a deal Iran can live with!!!!

So, the question becomes why the reminder from one of Khamenei's henchmen?

There is another part of this story I found interesting.

" An attack on Syria would be considered an attack on Iran and Iran's allies"?????

Iran's Allies??? not Syria's?????

Who is Ahmad Vahidi referring to?

Could this be another veiled threat towards events in Iraq?

We all know how poorly things are going in Iraq for Iran and that is bad news stacked on top of bad news.... Those pesky Arabs.... The poor Persians just can't trust them!!!

Ok, so then the Russians, come out nearly at the same time as this latest threat from Iran and make the comment Assad's days  are possibly numbered.

We all know Medvedev doesn't make a public comment with the Russian stamp on it unless the Tsar has approved of it.

So.... are Russia and Iran playing "Good Cop... Bad Cop"?????

Maybe, but to what end?

As I have said for over a year and a half now, Assad will not last one day longer then it takes the Russians and the Iranians to figure out how to control or live with Syria post Assad.

Perhaps Iran's threat to bring Iraq into the fold is part of the plot to keep the West from even contemplating actions in Syria.

If that is true, I would find it more than humorous, given  the West total reluctance to take one viable act towards operations in Syria.

Iraq is a mess.... Syria is a mess... Lebanon is bubbling just below the surface and all of this  is nothing but bad news for Iran....

 I could almost understand Iran's frustration if things were really going good for the West, but with the events of Mali in the past two weeks, the West is hardly in the driver's seat!!!

I'm not sure anyone is ins control of events right about now, and I'm even less convinced anyone has a actionable game plan towards all these issues.

Oh ya... North Korea is going to steal the attention span of just about everyone real soon!!!!

I wonder what the "game plan" is for that crisis.... if any???

IRAQ'S STABILITY IS BECOMING A REAL CONCERN, BUT TO WHOM?

Ok, it's fairly obvious Iraq is suffering for the same disease many nations in the region are afflicted with.... weak governance and a population divided on social, religious and economic fronts!!!

Kurds.... Sunni... Shia.... Arab.... Persian.... all have visions for Iraq's land and none of them have anything in common.

Oh...the rest of the world wants one thing.... keep pumping!!!!

Now, Maliki is no different than any other two-bit opportunist from that region of the world... simply looking for "power" wealth" and both must be obtained by keeping your foot on the throat of those around you.

Both Maliki and Muqtada al-Sadr have climbed in bed with the Persians, well at least for now, but al-Sadr has -plans ... long term and they don't include Maliki and the surly don't include the Persians!!!

The Kurds have plans, plans that are well underway thanks to Exxon and Turkey, and they to don't include Maliki and Iran.

Let's cut to the chase....what is holding Iraq together?

My theory is war fatigue on the part of the citizens.

As much as the Sunni would like to toss Maliki out, something Muqtada al-Sadr tried less than a year ago, they and others in the country are simply sick of Iraq being in a persistent state of crisis!

Here is the problem!

As is always the case, reluctance is often overcome by tragedy and a tragedy can be

" created" by those who need the crisis to grow!

In the case of Iraq, who might that be?

You don't need to look very far, just to the South!!!

What do the GCC nations see in Iraq?

They see a flowering proxy puppet of the Persians.

What do the Arabs of the GCC know is the achiles heal of that flowering relationship?

Yep... the deep seated feelings of Arabs towards Persians....

And what can the GCC stack on top of that emotional topic... Religion!!!

Ok.... how much trouble is Iraq really in?

At the end of 2012 I made a prediction Iraq would be the "hot topic" in 2013...

I'm still placing my bets on that theory.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=102367

NORTH KOREA AND CHINA.. AN UPDATE TO MY "THEORY"

Back in September of 2012, actually several times before that, I posed a "what if" question.

As the events of the past few months have continued to unfold, I thought now might be a good time to update my "what if" question!

Now, I know the probability formulary is the most important factor when we consider a " what if" question given that determines just how much time and energy should be put into figuring out the 'what if"!!!!

But, as I stated back in September, let's just play the game without the weighted category of probability.

Ok, let's get started....

Lets say for the sake of argument the Chinese are really fedup with dealing with the whole North Korea / South Korea issue.

Lets say the Chinese have come to the conclusion if the Korean Peninsula issue was "off the table / dealt with/ the excuse for the Western Military presence in that part of the Pasific would be much harder to defend in the court of world opinion.

Lets assume the Chinese feel as if they can no longer dictate the actions of North Korea and the added tensions over territorial control for the whole region was more important to them than wasting time and energy on a topic that seems hopeless.

Simply put, "what if" China just basically said, " so what.... what does it matter" or "We give up....Inshallah" or the Chinese version of this... given they are a Godless Country!!!

What if their frustration over the whole China Sea issue put them in a position of letting North Korea go its own destructive way?

Remember, we are leaving the " probability" part of this question out.... yes I know the whole theory of China not wanting millions of starving North Koreans walking into China.... lets just drive on for a minute.

Ok, so let's assume China sees the events in Mali and Lybia as just a smoke screen for the West to block further advancements by China in the mineral rich lands  of Africa...

Let's assume we have a China that is becoming more and more concerned with social stability to the point of paranoia.

So, let's see.... we have Territorial rights issues ////// "containment" issues/// Social issues and a crazy neighbor that is the main reason your adversary uses as an excuse to keep a formidable military at your doorstep.

Gee... China is just gong to ignore all these issues right.. for the sake of selling cheap toys to the West????

Before we move on, read the link below. Oh.. by the way... "The Global Times" is all but run by the Chinese Government. read on!!!

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/758130.shtml

Ok, back to the September 2012 point I made...

Lets assume China knows full well our capability to deal with North Korea and Iran simultaneously is a feat that would drive the Western economy into the ditch.

Let's assume a nation of people who plan events based on fifty years or more weighs all the issues listed above and decides the damage / recovery from a simultaneous conflict... one they could stay out of all together.. is worth the risk..

Let's cut to the chase now.

If China decides to counter the West's effort to " contain" China how might they do that?

Could it involve a crazy neighbor they have all but given up on, or is it time to use that crazy neighbor to your advantage.....finally?

Could China instigate an event with Iran.... I hope we all believe the answer here!!!

2013 is not a year where we can afford to fixate on one issue such as Iran... Arab Springs... Islamic Fundamentalist in Africa...

Eyes wide open!!!

All options on the table.. and my most favorite line from " The Untouchables".. What are you prepared to do about it"?????

I hope we are there!!!

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/09/a-theory-at-beginning-of-this-year-i.html

THE FLAG THAT IRAN FEARS!!!

Stop executing Arab activist??? What???

How could that be?

I thought Iran was the "Brother" of the  Arabs?

So, why do they hang them for simply being Arabs in Iran?

Oh... that's right... The Iranians are PERSIANS... not Arabs!!!

So, London based Amnesty International has to make a plea for these five Arabs in Iran?

Where is the outcry here?

Where is the great Arab leader... Mr Morsi???

Better yet... where is Hezbollah.... ARAB Hezbollah????

Well, you see... everyone over there knows what most in the West consistently seem to forget.... Persians are scared to death of Arabs and besides.. they are low class scum compared to the superior Persian race!!!

We all think it's Israel that keeps the Iranian leadership up all night.

Would you like to believe the Persians are just as worried about the growing Arab population / Sunni movement in Iran?

You bet they are and hanging five of them at a time for just be Arab is not going to stop the demographics changes taking place in Iran.

So, when you hear about the GCC leaders fretting over the Iranian "menace", do you really believe that is based upon the Shia / Sunni / divide?

Events like these are like manta from Heaven to the West, if and only if we have the intelligence and never to play this correctly.

News story number one should be, " Iranian / Persians / continue to persecute the poor underprivileged Arabs in Iran.

The fact that a extremely liberal organization such as Amnesty International is leading the charge is even better.

How in the world can the rest of the region possibly link this group with the evil doings of the "West"?

Most of the time Amnesty International is breathing down a Western Nations back, not climbing into their pockets!

Ok..... Get the picture here????

Iran's actions provide the rest of the region the golden opportunity to create unrest in Iran.

Don't tell me we have no need to do so given we have "sanctions" working well.

Everyone knows the sanctions on Iran are hurting those who have nothing to do with running the government / nuclear programs!!!

What they are doing is making the current dictator more and more nervous about social unrest.. the true goal of the sanctions!

Well, why use sanctions to do that?

Why not paint a picture of a group of bigots who look down their noses at Arabs and hanging them for just talking about being Arab?

 Exploitation of the Persian elitist cannot be overlooked and this opportunity should not be allowed to pass the world by.

Actually, it's a twofer.... Pound the Persians... thereby creating a credibility gap between them and the Arabs / regardless of Sunni / Shia affiliation and put the pressure on the "sellout" Arabs.... Hezbollah!!!!

Hezbollah.... letting Arabs go under the Persian sword for the sake of their self-interest!!

Oh ya... Where is the great Al Jazerra press on this story?????

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=300894

JORDAN. BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE.. STILL!!!

Well, its no mystery that Jordan has been under the gun of the Muslim Brotherhood for sometime now, but today could easily have been a new chapter in the struggle for the current government.

At this point in time, it really doesn't matter what the King did to show some level of appeasement, for you see the Muslim Brotherhood smells blood in the water and finding a "middle ground" is not what they are looking for.

As I stated months ago, the King is not without his supporters to include the West... namely the GCC nations; they've even talked of allowing Jordan to join the GCC.

Is the economy the issue in Jordan?

Yes?

Is the issue of more social freedoms and issue in Jordan?

To some extent, yes!!!

Is this what the Muslim Brotherhood is out to change?

NO, although once again... that is the series of excuses they are utilizing.

Although I've not heard it...yet.... I can just imagine what the party line will be from the MB.

"We are not wishing to gain power in Jordan... we just want to insure the rights of all citizens in Jordan"......

We have heard that storyline before???? Egypt!!!!

To the Brotherhood it's always about power, and the passive path to gaining it.

Does Jordan have leadership issues?

Yes... who doesn't?

You can rest assured of one simple fact... the MB is out for the sake of the MB in Jordan and nothing else!!!

The sturgle for control of Jordan will be far more complex than the others and the MB knows it.

The King has two huge advantages... the GCC's money and his maturity.

Getting the King into a position to overreact to the actions of his own people will not be an easy task.

He is far more clever that many give him credit for.

If I know Jordan, the game plan could very well be to create "problems" for the MB in Egypt and to do so to a level they could easily be distracted.

Don't count out his actions in the Syrian events as well.

He completely understands the MB goals there as well, and keeping them off balance will be priority number one for him.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/01/201312312157574452.html

SO.. ARE THE RUSSIANS REALLY PULLING OUT?

Well, all the buzz today was the story of the Russian pulling citizens out of Syria through Lebanon and the Russians categorically denying they were doing so!

Ok, what is really going on?

First off, lets look at who is leaving?

Is it just one group or Russian citizens in general?

If we follow that thought chain, the next question becomes, " why now"?

Are the Russian really anticipating the fall of Assad?

Russia, like most governments, will surly have contingency plans for getting their people out of Syria and perhaps this is truly the fist wave based on the highest threat category.

If there is a sense of urgency with the Russians,  then why?

The common statement is they realize Assad is losing power and doing so quickly.

Well....maybe!!!

One way or another the Russian must think things are about to get worse and so some phase of evacuation has been approved.

Now, reports state there up to 30k Russians in Syria; a number I find incredible unless you look at the weather of Russia and realize how many folks may have moved to Syria just to avoid the Russian winters.

One thing is for sure; the concept of moving everyone one out by airlift from Lebanon is not going to work for 30K people.

My bet is the Russians are not even close to giving up on Assad given the obvious reluctance of the rest of the world to give little more than lip service to the Rebels.

Yes, some are doing more than that, but none are accomplishing the level of support Iran and Russia continue to send.

If Russia decides to really get their citizens out of Syria, you will see far more than two aircraft landing in Lebanon!!!!!

What are they doing?

Well.. we will have to wait to see!!!!

Russia does nothing without the Tsar's approval!!!

\http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-23/203418-russian-evacuation-signals-doubts-about-assad-expe.ashx#axzz2IkoP6Erf

MALI AND ALGERIA... WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON?

For the past several days I have avoided the conversation of Mali and the events in Algeria..

But, now that some of the more important facts about the Gas plan attack have worked their way out, now might be a good time to talk about both topics.

fist off, most of the common folks in the world are stilled more than puzled as to why the French decided to intervene in Mali.

Yes, true there was a UNSC vote on actions for the region, but that doesn't explain the speed at witch France jumped in with both feet; something that is going to prove march harder to sell as time goes on.

I've read and heard a wide range of "reasons" the French government took the actions they did and some of them are not even worth covering.

One aspect of this action still has me a little more than puzzled; the French Military Command!!

Now, it's more than likely the French leadership have given their military more than ample warning of their intent to launch into the quagmire that is known as Central Africa, but the hast that they did so.... well.. I have a hard time believing their Military condoned that part of the concept.

The classic question became the first one that was asked by many, such as me!

"What is the end state"????

What was France looking to do?

Rid Central Africa of Islamic Fundamentalist?

Well, they and others should have thought of that before they allowed the entire weapons inventory of Libya to be hauled off by anyone with a pickup truck!!!

As of this morning, the storyline out of France continues to be their desire to rid Northern Mali of the AQ backed organizations!!!

In reality both these goals are about the same on the lunacy  scale!!!!

Ok, for the sake of time, let me cut to the chase!!

For the life of me, and many like me, I can't understand what France's leadership was thinking and we are probably only a week or two away from the French people really starting to push the issue!

One event was bound to happen and it only took two days for it to show up.

The age old saying of, " The Enemy of my Enemy" became the battle cry of all four groups the French are up against; oh ya.. good luck my French friends with the "crack" Troops who are coming to work along side you in Mali... ragtag units from third world ragtag militaries... I've been down that road before!!!!

Ok, lets not waste anymore time wondering why this fiasco has taken place in Mali.

Let's spend a few minutes hitting the "big picture" issues of what this newly formed crisis could mean to the rest of us, much less France!!

As I said early, the fall of Libya is the root cause of the disaster that is now called Central Africa... as if Central Africa was not already a big enough disaster!!

Here is another part of that statement that needs to be repeated..... UN and the rest of us have a big part of the blame based on the outcome of Libya....

I was never sure what " vision" the West had for post Libya and it's clear that lack of vision was just one example of a series of visionless events!

Ok, enough of the Monday Morning Quarterbacking.... back to what this could mean to us.

Mali will not have a definitive event to mark the success or failure of France's blunder!

France will run out of public support and money much faster than it will run off multiple battle hardened Rebel groups!

France will also be hard pressed to find "willing" partners from any non Third Word Countries....

The cost of yet another " operation" with the Middle East still in the center of a full blown crisis, is not going to be well received by the West or the UN.

As is always the case, the UN is fast to vote but slow to move and the French somehow forgot this!!

Here comes the really important topic and it's one that just showed it's ugly head in Algeria this week.

Will the actions of yet another old Colonial power / France / have repercussions and will it cause unification of groups?

I think you already know the answer to that question Mr Obvious!!!

What did " we" do and why did we do it??

Really good questions that nobody is going to answer anytime soon!!!!

Where is this all going?

Another excellent question that nobody and I mean nobody has the answer for!!

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21127646