2012    A DECISIVE YEAR FOR THE ARABS AND THE MIDDLE EAST!

As 2011 comes to an end, the age old question is once again asked, "what will 2012 bring"?

It seems the Academics and the " Talking Heads", both groups who are usually wrong, are once again trying to impress their followers with detailed, philosophical statements.

About six months ago,  I made a simple statement about the future of the Middle East.

Who is going to be the next "leader" in the Middle East?

Will it continue to be what the people in the region refer to as the "Colonial Powers"?

Will it be the reemerging Ottoman Empire from Turkey?

Will it be the reemerging Persian Empire from Iran?

Will the Arab League finally achieve the level of validity it has dreamed of?

Colonial Powers:

The Colonial Powers have history and economics on their side, but the economic weapon is decaying and is predicted to continue to decline.

The Colonial Powers, as  has been the case throughout time, will continue shrink their sphere of influence as the financial situation worsens.

In short, the days of Colonial Rule in the Middle East are over.

How quickly and how orderly this happens is an issue of the Social Media events such as the Arab Spring. ( The Colonial Powers, and " others", still do not understand the power of Social Networking. It's a Genie that is out of the bottle.)

The Ottomans:

Time is sometimes everything and this time around that is especially true for Turkey.

Turkey's 15 year quest to be accepted by the European Union and Economic club has come to a scratching stop.

As things continue for the  " Collective Europe", it could very well be the Europeans will need the Ottomans' more than Turkey needs to be accepted by Europe. Hint... The Turks understand this all too well.

As bright as the future currently seems for the Ottomans, their enemies will not just sit back and give away their dreams. ( Insert the Persian dream here!!)

The issue of the Kurds and a dream of Kurdistan pose the same daunting task the Israelis face with the Palestinian statehood issue.

Yes... the Kurds are the Turk's version of the PA.

Another problem for the Ottoman quest is the fact the Arabs don't trust them.. never have and never will.  Look at history for the examples.

The Arab League and the GCC will not simply role over for the new Colonial Power.. The Ottomans.

The Persians:

The dreams of one leader in Iran are not necessarily the vision of the other and that is the key weakness to the Persian future.

A house divided is never a house ready to concur the region, much less the world.

Persians are not Arab and no one knows that better than the Arabs.

They have been told that for thousands of years.

Just as there can be no true alliance between the Ottomans and the Arabs, there will be know alliance between the Persians and the Arabs, regardless of faith!

Continuing to thrive or survive on the common threat of the Israel and the issue of the Palestinian state is not going to save the Persians.

Youth and the internet will bring down the Religious fanatics and they know this.

The danger will become a " Youth" that is Nationalistic and once again looks down their collective noses towards their Arab neighbors.

The Arabs:

If you asked 100 people across the world, " who are the 'Arabs', you would not find a common answer.

The problem is, you would get the same results from asking 100 Arabs the same question.

A region with a four thousand year history of " Tribes.. Clans.. family bloodlines... transcends any concept of Arab Unity.

The Arab League has been and will continue to be a dream just as the Pan Arab movement was a dream.

Not sure what I am talking about here?

Watch Laurence of Arabia and it will become clear to you nothing has changed.

So, who takes the lead in the Middle East in 2012?

Nobody!

The vacume created by the continue withdraw of Western countries will not be filled by any of the major players listed above.

Oh ya... Don't count on the Chinese.

If you want to see the Chinese concept working with the Middle East, watch the interview on Al Jazeera from several months ago when they asked China about the damage they were causing in Australia ore mining.  

Short answer from China.. " We could care less... we are here for the ore".

A little less tack than we have used in the West, but the simple truth is as long as oil flows from the Middle East, China doesn't care about anything else.. Sorry Palestine and Kurds.. No help coming.

Ok, let me wrap this up.

2012 is yet another year of violence and stagnation for the Middle East.

The Arab Spring will spread with the fall of Al Assad in Syria.

The Iranians will force a conflict to prevent the Arab Spring from taking place in Iran.

It will not start with Hammas or Hezbollah.

Arabs will not destroy everything they have for the sake of the Persians.

Iran will use " other" players to get the fight underway and they will try desperately to keep the Israeli issue the center of attention after Syria falls.

The problem is they can not survive without Syria as a proxy and they know it.

Yes... 2012.. will see the Iranian conflict come to a head, but it may not be a regional war simply because the Arabs will not burn down their world for the Persians.

The world economy will tank and that will cause issues in other parts of the word the West will not be able to ignore..

Happy New Year!!!!

IRAN'S THREATS AND THE SYRIAN CONNECTION!

I afraid many have missed the mark on why Iran is suddenly making such bold statements about oil flow from the Middle East.

Most of the talk centers around the Iranian Nuclear program, but some of us are not buying that line of logic, at least not just yet.

My bet is the issue is Syria!

The Observer mission showing up with such constant press coverage is simply not going to work out the way Assad and Iran hoped it would.

Getting someone in charge of the team who himself has a very troubled past is not going to insure Iran the report in Jan they are looking for.

The fact of the matter is Iran with each passing day becomes more and more convinced the Puppet Assad is going to fall in Syria.

They grow more and more convinced the Arab Spring is going to overtake Syria and then spread to Iran's youth.

For months now I have beat the drum of Iran being the real trigger for the Middle East.

Not over the nuclear weapons program, but over the Arab Spring.

So, is Iran willing to take the game to the next level?

Yes.

The threats of oil movements being interrupted is a true threat and the US knows it.

Does Iran pull the trigger over the oil issue or does it get a regional war started over the Palestinian, Israeli issue?

Are the Arabs willing to destroy the Middle East over a Persian quest?

If not, the oil war becomes the primary mission and it's all designed to save the future of Iran.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/28/obama_administration_secretly_preparing_options_for_aiding_the_syrian_opposition

ERDOGAN'S HEALTH ... IS IT REALLY AN ISSUE?

The rumors of the Turkish's PM's heath status has been circulating for several weeks now.

His true health status is probably well known in Iran and in Syria as well as the GCC.

There is absolutely no arguing what a vital character he is at this crucial point in time for the region.

rumors of an impending power struggle inside Turkey if Erdogan is unable to continue to effectively lead are going to spread like wildfire.

Perceptions will rule the day and decision will be made based upon both fact and speculation.

Ergdogan having health problems will be like blood in the water near sharks when it comes to the Iranian leadership.

The thought of a distracted Turkey is more than desirable to Iran and Syria.

Anything the two of them can do to take advantage of this potential turmoil in Turkey will be considered.

Indecision on Turkey's part at this critical point in time could spell disaster for the Middle East.

This issue of Erdogan's health will need to be watched very carefully over the next few weeks.

If this story really becomes a concern for Turkish leadership, the Iranian medaling will take place rather quickly.

A distracted Turkey is a dream come true for Syria and Iran and they will do whatever it takes to help make this happen.

IRAN'S UAV STORY... WHAT DOES IT REALLY MEAN?

So, did the Iranians really figure out how to take over a US UAV?

If they did, did they have any "help" in achieving this goal?

My answer is, it doesn't really matter if you live in the Middle East.

If you live in the US, it appears you are more worried about other issues.

What is the impact to the US's technical edge in the arena of UAVs?

Hard to tell!

 We would have to know what level of understanding Iran and anyone who may have helped them has achieved in the field of UAV communication technology.

Lets take a look at the bigger picture this event has created.

Regardless of how it took place, the fact of the matter is Iran's stock as a formidable enemy has gone up not only in the eyes of the West, but more importantly in the eyes of the GCC members.

Imagine the conversation in Saudi when they were told what had happened?

Iran's local enemies must now add yet another factor into the equation.

" If I own a UAV fleet, can Iran take it over or bring them down"?

The bottom line is simple, Iranian prestige has been greatly enhanced with this event.

But as the Iranian leadership bask in the glory of making the US look foolish..... The IDF adds yet another critical factor into their formula for action.

So, did Iran do anything to help their cause or did they add another nail into their coffin?

  

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1215/Exclusive-Iran-hijacked-US-drone-says-Iranian-engineer/(page)/2

RUSSIA.... SYRIA.....IRAN... TURKEY.... IT JUST BECAME MORE COMPLICATED!

Mr. Davutoglu's announcement that Turkey had " No plans to invade Syria" may have calmed a few worried Mothers in Turkey, but the rest of the region didn't hear a thing!

How fired the  first shot  is typically  an issue for the historians.

Who is "willing" to insure the right actions are taken to set the whole conflict in motion is the critical issue.

The other day, I talked about how Putin is now even a candidate for needing a " distraction" based on the protest movement in Russia.

It was one thing to realize Iran was close to needing a " distraction" given the pending fall of it's loyal Proxy Syria, but it is a whole new environment if Putin contemplate the same " distraction theory".

It's important to understand the reoccurring theme right now.

Iran is in real trouble and everyone knows it... to include Putin!

Far from being closer to Iranian dominance in the region, as some experts keep talking about, Iran is on the edge of losing everything!

Enter Mr. Putin!

Putin knows all too well what an Iran without Syria would mean to the region.

His ability to play middleman between Iran and the US and still make money selling arms to Iran and Syria would be all but gone if events keep on the current track.

Putin needs dominance in a region that is critical to his Master Plan as world Fuel Czar.

To accomplish this, he must have influence over the future of current events there.

Does Putin really care if the Sunni or the Shia control Syria?

No...

What he cares about is the Ottoman's ability to become a regional power and thus influence his vision of the future for Russia.

Ottomans and Russians... no love loss there!!!

Iran is a Pawn to Putin and always has been... really... every country in the Middle East is a  Pawn to someone and always has been.

Threatening to stoke the flames of conflict in the Middle East is a weapon Putin will not hesitate to use if the  Arab Spring... Tunisian Virus.. bet Putin sees it my way on this naming nomenclature issue, really becomes an issue in Russia.

Oh.. One last thought.. If there is one thing Putin loves... truly loves.. it's high oil prices...

Keeping the winds of war blowing without starting a fire is a great tactic Putin has a history of implementing.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=82977

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=249478

PUTIN FACES HIS BIGGEST TEST YET.

The sly KGB leader has spent his whole life dealing with misleading information and covering up actions his fingerprints were on.

What is fairly new to him is the whole phenomenon of " Social Media".

It was clear from the beginning old Dictators had no clue what the 21st century Social Networking world meant or how it could impact them and Putin seems to be no different in that respect.

His ability to divert issues is a one I have already written about and his rant about the US last week was the classic example of that thought process.

So, is Russia in the early stages of a " Arab Spring... I bet Putin would agree with me when I call this event the Tunisian Virus.... as most are talking about now?

I think it's too early to say.

The fine line of not over reacting and not under reacting is the key to future events in Russia.

Are the people upset enough to turn the protest into a full scale problem for Putin?

Not yet, but as I have said before, it only takes one critical error on the part of the government, Police, and the flames could come alive in Russia.

If I had to spend energy right now on a area, it would defiantly be Syria and not Russia.

Having said that, if Putin becomes concerned about events in Russia, fanning the flames of Syria might just be his ticket.

For months now I have talked about how certain countries need  "distractions" from events inside their borders or near them.

It wouldn't take much to add Russia to this list and it all depends on the Old KGB Boss's ability to shape his future.

It may be getting cold in Russia, but if Putin and his Puppets don't be careful, it could get warm real soon and he will make sure that "Heat" spreads if he has to.

PUTIN'S SETS A NEW COURSE WITH THE US!

Putin is a skilled manipulator with a lifetime of experience thanks to the
KGB.

He was ready two days ago when the protest showed up in Moscow.

He had his "supporters" replacing the protestors as soon as the Police pushed
them out of the area.

The ability to take the comments by the US leadership, Secretary Clinton,
Senator John McCains' Twitter comment, and turn them into a pro Putin topic
is exactly what he knows how to do.

If someone thinks for a moment an Arab Spring type event in Russia is a good
thing, they need a reality check and fast!

The Law of Unintended Consequences may or may not apply here, but one thing
is for sure... this is a very....very.. .dangerous game.

If we were are going to have any "luck" with Russia on the Syrian and Iranian
issues, I'm not sure being accused of supporting the Arab Spring in Russia is
the way to go about it.


http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2011/12/20111286543602879.html

http://www.salon.com/2011/12/07/mikhail_gorbachev_calls_for_a_new_vote_in_rus
sia/

http://news.yahoo.com/clinton-cites-serious-concerns-russia-voting-145450213.
html

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20111206/169389247.html

LIEBERMAN TO PUTIN??? WHAT WAS THE MESSAGE?

The story goes FM Lieberman arranged to talk to Putin about Russian arms sales to Syria.

I have had hard time believing this was the main topic or even the real reason Lieberman asked for the meeting; side note... it's interesting that Putin agreed!

The typical reaction to a FM wishing to have an additional meeting would be with his or her counterpart; in this case Russian Deputy Prime Minister Zubkov.

So, why did Putin agree and was arms sales to Syria, not the number one topic on the Israeli PM's list right now, really the issue?

If you look at the Israeli public messaging campaign of the past few weeks, you may come to the conclusion this "short notice / unofficial / meeting was part of that continuing messaging plan.

Did PM Lieberman make a point to let Putin hear right from Lieberman's lips to his Putin's ears how serious Israel is about Iran?

Did he waste a one on one meeting with Putin to discuss something as old and worn out as Arms Sales?

Here is the next interesting question that will not be answered by a media announcement!

How did Putin answer?

To me, the reaction of Putin to this meeting is far more important than the real reason it took place.

I think we will see some indication in the near future.

Is Putin now in a position that he has to chose sides?

Did he get the " You are with us or you are against us" speech?

Interesting event to say the least.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=248557

RUMORS... PERCEPTIONS... PARANOIA.. A DEADLY COCKTAIL!

If you look to traditional indicators of pending conflict such as fuel, unit
mobilization ect... ect.. you may not be accurately assessing the current
tension in the Middle East.

For months now I have continued to state Iran cannot and will not accept the
fall of Al Assad and the follow on threat of the Arab Spring showing up in
Iran.

Freedom in Syria spells doom for Iran's Zealots ,with the exception of
Persian Nationalist. ( Another story in itself).

Everyday Iran seems to move closer and closer to a "use or lose" mentality as
their final decision on their future.

To me, one of the prime indicators Iran is in a final stage of desperation
would be the loss of its "proxy" fighters... Syria.. Hezbollah, Lebanon and
Hamas.

Iraq's fledgling relationship is far too immature to place Iraqi support in
Iran's camp in time of warfare; that and the brutal history of the Iran /
Iraq war.

So, with the reports of Hamas beginning to leave Syria and stories of Iran
warning Hamas they will lose support from Iran, I see nothing but increased
danger of confrontation.

Next, consider the perception Iran must have based on the public statements
coming out of Israel?

Iran making public they have placed forces on "a war footing" may just be
somewhat of a media show, but again perception begins to shape events in the
Middle East more than reality.

Now, if Hamas is implementing an exit plan for its relationship with Syria
and Iran, can Hezbollah be far behind?

Yes, Hezbollah is far more tied to Iran and Syria then the Shia Hamas, but
the future of Lebanon is paramount to Hezbollah and Hezbollah knows their
destruction is all but guaranteed in a confrontation between Iran and Israel.

As Israel continues to plan and review second and third order effects of an
attack on Iran, it must be weighing the likelihood of Hamas and Hezbollah
allowing their two organizations to be completely destroyed for the sake of
the Persians!

Lip service is a common practice in the Middle East and Israel understands
this implicitly.

Getting someone to "sit this one out" or just pay lip service is not out of
the question..... Just ask Saudi!

Quietly arranging the GCC or Jordan to make Hamas and the Shia of Lebanon
understand they can limit their pain in the pending war if they just sit on
the sidelines must be a key objective for Israel.

Lebanon and Gaza will not come out of this conflict untouched, but the
ability to rebuild is based upon the limitations Israel places on their
perceived threats.

I simply do not see how the Middle East is going to avoid a confrontation
unlike any we have seen there in the past forty years.



http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/iran-threatening-to-cut-hamas-funds-a
rms-supply-if-it-flees-syria-1.399612

http://www.debka.com/article/21543/

http://www.debka.com/article/21545/

CAN THE " ARAB SPRING" TAKE PLACE IN A RUSSIAN WINTER?

About a week ago, I read an editorial on why it was the Arab Spring was not taking hold in Russia.

Lots of talk about how the youth of Russia was so Nationalistic they would support anyone, like Putin, who would put Russia back on the World Stage.

To make a long story short, the author was arguing Russia simply was not in a position to

follow the Arab Spring path.

As soon as I was finished reading it, I think it was posted on Al Jazeera, I almost convinced myself he may be on to something.

Well, it is safe to say that I now firmly believe he was and is DEAD WRONG.

The elections in Russia spell a very..... very... troubling word for Mr Putin,, AKA the  KGB KING... and that word is  " Discontent"!!       

Discontent.. the key ingredient for a Russian Spring.... I don't know you will get much done in a Russian Winter....

For months now, Putin has been hard at work using the Arab Spring, like a few others, as a smokescreen to set his plan into motion.

If he was convinced a strain of the Tunisian Virus... Yes.. I still refer to the Arab Spring as the Tunisian Virus... then he has made a huge mistake.

If he believes that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't have it's long range goals for the Muslim  " Stans" than he is even a bigger fool.

If he is about to shove his United Russia party down the throats of the Russian people, then he is making yet another huge mistake and he will also set the stage for the Russian version of the Arab Spring.

Many people are talking about how Putin is trying to turn back the hands of time.

Some are even talking about the " Empire" returning....

All that might be true.. .Putin is an Nationalist to the center of his heart.

The question becomes, can he place a stranglehold on the Russian government again yet at the same time fight off the Social Media driven Arab Spring movement?

Suddenly, Russian has become worthy of keeping an eye on..

One thing is for sure... Syria will give him some level of distraction...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_162-57336102/as-putin-plans-to-stay-many-r

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/2011122115247505931.html

EGYPT'S VISION.. WAS IT REALLY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD?

Well, it looks like the Islamist are going to take the majority control of the Egyptian Parliament.

We all know it has been predicted from the very beginning, but I wonder if the people of Egypt really understand what is taking place?

The combination of the MB and the other Islamist parties such as the Salafi are going to set the stage for the new Egyptian Constitution!

Is that what the people went to the streets for in Jan of this year?

Is that why they tossed out Mubarak.... to have Islamist leadership set the stage for the future of Egypt?

If the majority of the voting population indeed cast their votes in this fashion, then the answer is yes!!!

Isn't that what everyone in the West was praising???

The ARAB SPRING and the rise of Democracy!!!

When it is all said and done, is Egypt still going to be a House Divided?

Will the Egyptian Military accept Islamist control of the new, Democratically elected Parliament?

So... Tell me.... what is the good news from Egypt??????

Someone explain it to the people of Israel please!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/2011121164541437543.html