THE TACTICAL SIDE OF THE CONFLICT:
Tonight, I will go into detail as to the tactical issues Iran would face confronting Israel.
I will address both First Strike and Retaliation issues.
On Thursday, I will cover Israel's side of this topic.
IRAN'S
TACTICS:
First Strike / Limited:
The blinding obvious would be the utilization of Hezbollah
and other radical group's capabilities; thus reserving actual Iranian assets
for counter actions or escalation activities.
Depending on the skill level of the unit members, a night
operation would be the most dramatic and cause the highest level of anxiety in Israel.
As for the type of attacks, if Iran is wishing to build the
event based upon the concept of Israel responding disproportionately, thus
providing Arab Public sentiment behind the attacks, then we would see the typical rocket, mortar
actions but at a much higher level.
Again, tactically
speaking, this would allow Iran
to develop an scaleable conflict while at the same time attempting to control
the public support in the Arab world.
The attacking units have learned a great deal since the
events of 2006 and 2008.
Israel's
ability to overwhelm and neutralize the attacking units would be a difficult
task for at least the initial phase of the conflict.
Mobile and disguised teams in numbers large than Israel is use
to tracking, day to day, would pose a significant challenge.
The fact this attack could initiate at night would only make
the response more difficult.
If Iran's
goal was not based on civilian casualties, but simply winning the initial phase
of the conflict with public opinion and perception, it would be a devastating
start for Israel.
The memories of 2006 and 2008 would be topic number one for
the media.
" Has Israel
learned anything after the events of 2006 and 2008"?
That would be the core of what the media would ask.
The next real tactical advantage this scenario would have
for Iran
would be the issue of fighting from a defensive position.
This is not new to Hezbollah or other radical groups and
when you stack " hit and run" tactics on top of the defensive
concept, the initial phase of the conflict will almost assuredly go to Iran.
As I stated once before, the third tactic of this scenario
could be temporarily neutralizing Israel Air Force Bases.
If the attacking units can place missiles onto the key
airfields, just enough to interrupt runway operations, the IAF would be shaken
badly.
Now, launching aircraft under attack is something any
skilled air force can accomplish and I can assure you this would be the case in
Israel.
The problem becomes if the runway takes damage.
Hezbollah and the Qud are easily skilled enough to
understand the value of having these IAF sites under observation.
It is not out of the question these sites could come under
ground attack from small tactical teams.
Actually, this concept would probably prove far more
disruptive than simple Missile strikes.
An airfield under a special teams attack in the middle of
the night would be a chaotic event to say the least.
Getting the penetration of such teams close enough to the
IAF installations would be the hardest part of this concept, but the Qud an
Hezbollah are skilled fighters and those chosen for such a mission would have
planned in great detail.
So, the idea of a night operation that is scaleable based on
missile, rocket, mortar attacks, probably as a diversion as specialized teams engage
the IAF sites is a dangerous scenario for just about any military.
Starting a conflict without direct Iranian involvement, at
least not until someone proves the Qud was part of the specialized units
attacking the IAF, and yet putting Israel on their heels, for the first few
hours, would be a tempting planning concept.
Here comes the problem with a " Limited" attack...
the Israel
response will most likely not be " Limited".
Israel
has sworn never to go down the road of the 2006 2008 events again!
So, based on that, lets look at the next basic, tactical
option for Iran.
The Tactics of First Strike / Asymmetric Operations:
Think of an attack that again takes place in the middle of
the night... that has long range missiles and special tactics teams attacking
all across the nation of Israel
all at one time.
Getting the tactical teams into position would simply be a
matter of overrunning typically lightly manned...outpost that are not configured
for true "force on force" attacks.
Depending on when Iran
decided to initiate this type of attack, lets say an attack from what is known
as a " cold start"... no public warnings... no mobilization
operations inside Iran.
virtually no indication of pending hostilities, these outpost along the key
border points would not be prepared for indirect and special operations assaults.
I'm not sure if anyone really has any idea of how many
" Hostiles" are already inside the wire of Israel, but for the sake
of argument, let's assume there are far more than what would be needed to add
to the hysteria of a Missile, Rocket, force on force border attack in the
middle of the night.
The concept of follow on attacks out of Lebanon and the Sinai
by skilled Commando units, not just lightly trained kids who are ready to die
for Allah in the middle of the night would be a nightmare come true for the
people of Israel... it would be a nightmare come true for the rest of the
civilized world.
Commando units with pre designated targets such as power
stations.. rail yards.. and cell towers. would insure the panic in the country grew
with each passing hour.
Long range Iranian missiles impacting inside Israel would be the first indication this event
was unlike any in Israel's
past!
Again, the issue of the IAF sites being temporarily neutralized
would be devastating to the IDF.
The simple fact is, if properly executed, such an asymmetric
attack would place Israel in
a panic mode that would probably result in Tehran becoming the first retaliatory
target of the conflict.
The concept of striking Lebanon... Hezbollah locations
along with other radical groups working out of Gaza would most likely fall to secondary...
follow on targeting.
The first response, once the IDF confirmed long range
Iranian missiles, would most likely lead to the destruction of key, pre
designated strategic targets sites in Iran.
Tactically deescalating this type of an event would be virtually
impossible.
Where this would lead in the next several hours would be
almost as frightening as the event itself.
As I said the other day, I don't believe most people
understand how dangerous a conflict between Iran
and Israel
could be for the entire region and the world economy.
Tomorrow, I will look at the Israel tactics of a First
Strike..... limited and Fatal Blow..
