SO WHAT HAPPENS IF ISRAEL SAYS " YES" TO 67 BORDERS?

I read yet another academic explanation as to why Israel should agree to the entire Palestinian border requirements for their "peace deal".

Netanyahu has explained the tactical facts in the past, but lets review the big picture and keep the explanation simple.

Technology:

The changes to weaponry since the 67 war are too many to list.

Imagine Israel trying to defend it's territory that would be physically only  few kilometers wide from weapons that could strike it's entire area even from deep in Lebanon?

 What would Israel rely on?

Palestinian "good faith" ?...  It's "word" that they would not allow weapons to be launched from the West Bank?

Was that not the promise when Israel handed over Gaza?

What would be the statement from the new Palestinian government?

" We are not responsible and we are doing all that we can to stop the attacks"?

Times have changed.

Weapons and enemies have changed!

The concept of Israel defending it's cities from indefensible locations is simply out of the question.

For those who think a new government in Israel may  bring about a change in commitment, guess again.

What Israeli leader or party is going to capitulate the entire survival of Israel for the sake of peace with just one group?

The 67 border issue is completely unrealistic  as a starting point for future negotiations.

The issue of settlements in the West Bank, although difficult, is perhaps the only real issue that could have any traction.

Israel is never going back to the borders of 1967.

Wars are fought and nations lose territory.. this is the history of mankind.

If Israel goes to war and the territories are taken from them, then again the course of human history will have changed.

My warning is simple.... Israel will not give back land it sheds it's blood for!

If the Palestinian people want the 67s borders, then they will have to convince the rest of the Middle East and probably Turkey as well to war with Israel.

I am not sure what the answer is, but the 1967 border issue is dead and will remain dead until Israel is dead and if that happens.. I'm not sure there will be anyone nearby to live on the newly acquired land. 

IS SYRIA REACHING STATUS QUO  ?

For two nights now I have talked about the wishful thinking of Iran when it comes to Syria and how the outcome of Syria will shape the Palestinian event.

The attached article paints a picture the Iranians simply don't want to see.

What makes this article extremely interesting is the author!

It's one thing for some academic recluse who goes from the classroom to the coffee shop living in a world of hypothetical to write their opinion of Syria.

The author of this story is doesn't fit that mold.

The future of Syria is not heading  in the direction Iran needs it to.

Does that mean Iran is leaning towards pulling the trigger on the Palestinian event?

Perhaps, but I see more and more indications of Iran trying to find a way to shape the " New Syria".

A " New Syria" that Russia and Iran could be working on.

A " New Syria" based on some compromised leadership that Iran can still have the majority of influence over.

Sunni Businessmen or some " understanding" with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood... Ya I know... Fat chance...... could be what Iran is working on.

What the author of this article brings to the table is the disturbing reality of a Syria on the edge of falling into Civil War regardless of actions by Iran or any other sympathetic nation.

I have tried to talk myself into see a way Iran could survive this Syrian disaster for the simple reason I understand all too well what the second order effect would be.

Everyday brings a new piece to the jigsaw puzzle of the Middle East.

The problem seems to be the new pieces are showing up faster than the puzzle masters can figure out where they fit!

 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/09/201192395146840552.html

IRAN IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR

Last night I talked about Iran’s ability to not pull the trigger on the Palestinian issue if they believed Assad could survive.

As I stated, the ability of the Palestinian people to push Israel to the brink of warfare is limited without the support of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Having said that, an over reaction by the IDF would force Hamas to respond and the counter to Hamas may start the spiraling of events no even Iran could prevent.

So, the simple answer is, just because Assad is potentially out of the woods, I’m not sold that he is, the Palestinian issue still has the ability to overtake the region.

Iran’s ‘ instigators’ may not be activated, but young emotional Palestinian protestors could still provide the spark.

We should also remember  the ‘Crazy Eddie” factor can come into play as well.

Radical groups who owe nothing to the Palestinian people or Iran can provide the same spark.

Drawing Israel into a larger conflict can be the goal of groups Iran has no control over.

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am these elements are the ones we should really be concerned with.

 Over thinking all the possibilities of the Palestinian statehood event is easy to do.

DOES IRAN BELIEVE SYRIA IS UNDER CONTROL?

For the past several months I have voiced my opinion of just how desperate Iran was to avoid the loss of Syria.

My opinion that Iran would risk everything including a potential regional war to keep from losing Syria and having the Arab Spring spread into Iran stands.

The question becomes is Iran beginning to think Assad may survive?

It's a critical question given the extent Iran would go to prevent it from happening.

If they believe Assad is going to make it, then they may not pull the trigger on the Palestinian statehood issue.

In some ironic twist of fate, the survival of Assad may lead to a failed movement by the Palestinian front.

Sure the Palestinian people can protest and even become violent, but without the proxy support of Hamas and Hezbollah, the ability of the issue Turing into a regional war is all but gone.

I still firmly believe Iran is building a 'post Assad' plan incase they have to let him fall, but the fall will be on Iran's terms not the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood or the Ottomans'.

Following what events are related and impact what other events in the Middle East is always a complex process.

The trick is to keep the " Big Picture" simple.

No  threat of losing the Syrian Satellite and Iran simply doesn't see the need to inflame the Palestinian event..

We shall see.

PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN SPEAKS TO CNN’S ZAKARIA.

If you happen to catch the interview on CNN with Erdogan, you witnessed perhaps a historical speech on the future of the Middle East.

I have talked to the issue of the pending new Ottoman Empire, sometimes somewhat jokingly, but any doubts I may have had disappeared!

Erdogan painted a picture of Israel bleaker than any I’ve seen in the last few years, to include Iran’s rants.

That is a telling statement!

Erdogan’s words seem more than a political statement on a world stage.

Erdogan’s words bumped right up against the concept of being a dire warning of Israel’s future.

It is clear Erdogan, Turkey, is going to step in front of the Palestinian statehood issue and the future of the Palestinian people.

His words on Syria, paint a similar picture.

Erdogan and Turkey are going to shape the future of the Syrian people with or without the input of Iran.

I’m not sure what the Arab world thinks of this Ottoman viewpoint of the Middle East, but in Gaza, Erdogan is quickly becoming a hero.

His “advice” to Egypt on their pending election process was not well received by the Muslim Brotherhood nor the Egyptian military.

As I have said before, the Egyptian military has always been and will continue to be fearful of a new Ottoman Empire.

On Iran:

Of all the statements, comments on Iran’s nuclear weapons program were the most disturbing.

“  No attack on Iran will come from Turkish soil, unless Turkey is attacked”.

The message inside the statement is this; no US, Turkish airbases will be utilized for air attacks on Iran!

Not sure the US didn’t already understand that, but his public statement on CNN was not for the US population, but for the population of the Middle East.

It may have seemed as if he was defending Iran, but I think his point was more along the lines of, ‘ Turkey will decide what Iran should or should not be questioned on’.

As soon as he commented on Iran’s nuclear program, he asked why the issue of Israel’s nuclear weapons is not discussed.

Again, the theme here seem to be, Turkey will take lead on issue of Iran.

So, if Palestinian statehood is the issue….. Call Turkey…

If Syria is the issue……Call Turkey

If Iran is the issue……. Call Turkey

If Egyptian election process is the issue…. Yep…… Call Turkey!!!

Anyone see a pattern here????

It is now clear my theory of Turkey no longer being concerned about joining the EU has allowed a Nationalist like Erdagon to strike out in  a new direction.

So, are we witnessing a new Ottoman Empire in the making?

Perhaps on a limited, regional level, but Turkey will not decide the future of the Arab and Persian people.

Erdagon may think he has everything going his way, but oil and alliances based on oil are thicker than Nationalistic dreams of past Empires.

How the Arabs, the EU, the Persians, the Russians and the US react to this “new Turkey” will be interesting to watch.

“The enemy of my enemy is my friend” might be a concept most in the west will be quick to talk about, but this theory doesn’t hold true for Ottomans to Arabs or Arabs to Persians.  

Perhaps two thousand years ago, but this is the 21^st century and a new chapter in world history.





ISRAEL’S OPTIONS 

So, does Israel continue to stay on the defense? 

I would be willing to bet they do not. 

The question becomes what can they do? 

For months now, I have talked about the Iranians needing a distraction from 

the Arab Spring and the crisis in Syria. 

It's clear, to most, the Palestinian issue has become the centerpiece of the 

Iranian distraction plan. 

If anyone understands this and understands what it might lead to, it's 

Israel! 

As I alluded to yesterday, it is unrealistic to think Israel would not come 

up with its own option of a " Distraction Plan". 

As  I was listening to Netanyahu give his speech, I thought, at least for a 

moment, I figured out the 'Israeli Distraction Plan'. 

Iran's nuclear weapons program! 

Netanyahu's statement about what Iran was really trying to achieve should not 

have gone unnoticed in the room. 

I still have the opinion the Iranian " Master Plan", before the Arab Spring 

began, was to delay the world's actions just long enough to achieve nuclear 

weapons status; a status Israel will NEVER allow to happen. 

The Arab Spring knocked Iran off of their course to nuclear recognition and 

the Syrian event put them completely on the Defense. 

Two things had to happen for Iran to achieve the Master Plan. 

               1. They had to have a distraction so huge the Arab Spring could not 

come to Iranian land. 

               2. Assad had to find a way to survive, at least for the near term. 

So what is Israel possibly trying to do? 

Simple, put the Iranian nuclear threat issue back on the table for all the 

world to see. 

As important as the Palestinian statehood issue is, the fear of a war in the 

Middle East based upon Iran's nuclear program is a far greater concern. 

Making this the defining issue  is a risk the Israelis just may be willing to 

take. 

Brinkmanship! 

It is not a historical term limited to the US and Russian past. 

I'm not sold this is the course Israel will take, but it is an option that 

must be left on the table. 

How bad the Palestinian issue becomes will decide Israel's next move. 

Are there any other options for Israel? 

Yes! 

What is the issue Iran is trying to avoid? 

Syria and the Arab Spring. 

It is easily  within Israel's capability to "support" the resistance in Syria 

without getting their fingerprints on the event. 

I would not be surprised if this was taking place as I type this. 

Arms Merchants are a strange and mysterious tool in the hands of many 

governments. ( Wink..Wink... Nod.. Nod.. ) 

When was the last time Israel really concerned itself over  a Sunni / Shi 

fight?  ( Win ..Win in their book) 

What is going to take place is extremely hard to predict. 

Who are the major players other than the Palestinians, Israelis and the 

Iranians? 

Egypt, Turkey, Saudi, Russia, the US ect...ect... 

One thing I am confident of, Israel is not going to wait to see what becomes 

of this event. 

They know who is behind  the real danger and they will not stay on the 

Defense much longer. 

It's not their nature.  

NO ONE CONTROLS THE FUTURE OF THE EVENTS ABOUT TO HAPPEN.

The odds are good that Iran will insure the protest over the UNSC vote will turn violent. 

Hamas sees this event as a way of dealing a death blow to Abbas and his 

party. 

 Abbas and his party are fundamentally Technocrats and believers in a secular government, the two reasons Hamas will never "work" with them. 

When the dust settles, Hamas hopes to have Abbas removed for his unilateral attempt at the UN. 

Hamas's problem will come from Iran. 

Iran will insure the protest turn violent and Hamas will be forced to defend the Palestinian people. 

Again, I need to stress how volatile these protest could become. 

Keeping the concept simple: 

Iran needs violence, but just short of a regional war; they are prepared for regional war if needed, but that is not the goal. 

Hamas and the MB see an opportunity to take control of the Palestinian 

movement with Abbas' failure. 

Turkey can see what Iran is up to and may counter with actions to keep Syria on the front burner of the world news. 

The Arabs,GCC, to include Jordan, understand the Palestinian statehood issue will only add fuel to the fires of unrest in their countries. 

Containment without looking pro Israeli is their objective.  

( very hard to accomplish). 

Again, none of these countries, to include the Western ones, is prepared for the impact of Social media and Social networking. 

No one has the ability to control where this event is heading. 

ATTEMPT TO GET A DELAY??? IT WON’T WORK!!! 

I'm a little concerned many are staring to talk about how the issue of the Palestinian Statehood vote in the UN may not actually take place for weeks or months. 

I would not anticipate being able to kick this can down the road. 

 The world of social media and protest will not go into a holding pattern for weeks or months pending an official vote. 

 If this becomes a possible course of action by the UN or the US, it might very well create the violence they are trying to avoid. 

Having said that, dragging this event out is exactly what Iran is looking for. 

For everyday the PA issue is center stage, the Syrian event is not. 

The ability to 'control' the protest is the real question. 

My prediction is Iran will not fully control the future actions and very possibly they could  set into motion events they didn't anticipate. 

Iran looked for a distraction from Syria and the Arab Spring and set its sights on the PA issue. 

Has everyone forgot, Israel can do the same thing? 

  SNAPSHOT: 

 At this point in time, I would have to say Iran has things going its way. 

 For the past few months they have been on the defense trying to find a way to fight off the Arab Spring not just in Syria, but potentially in Iran as well. 

 The goal of taking advantage of the PA issue would allow them to stop the bleeding and perhaps got back on the offense. 

Don't forget the concept of " buying time" was the strategic objective 

before the Arab Spring; time needed for their nuclear program. 

If Iran can  achieve  " breathing room", then they  can see go back to their original goal;  buying time. 

It also appears their plans for Yemen and Bahrain will come back to the 

table, if Iran can get back on offense. 

 What Iran can't control is threefold: 

1.    The Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. ( they have their own goals for 

the PA issue.) 

2.  The Turks and their "vision" of the New  Ottoman Empire. ( Regional 

as it may be.) 

3.  The Arab youth and social media. 



Mark LeVine's article  paints, as it usually does, a very slanted picture.



The disturbing part of his editorial comes towards the end when he makes
reference to the potential fallout of the PA issue for the rest of the
world.



It is naive to think the murder of Arch Duke Ferdanan was the cause of WWI.



All the pieces were in place for WWI to unfold.



The Assignation of the Arch Duke was just the excuse to get the war
underway.



The Arab Spring, according to some, is a result of  "social injustices" such
as jobs and cost of living.



The current world economy, the world excluding China, India that is,  is
stuck between weak and growing weaker, with a forecast of weakness for
several years to come.



If the frustration levels of the Arab youth truly is the cause of the Arab
Spring, coupled with repressive governments, then the outlook for the world
economy is probably more gasoline for the fire of revolt.



Mark LeVine title: " Obama's Perfect Storm" could truly be a accurate
depiction of the months ahead.



Poor global economic conditions... Social Networking..  and youthful energy
sandwiched between religious causes  is a dangerous recipe...



What is about to happen over the Palestinian Statehood issue is anyone's
guess, but mine is it will get out of hand.



Those that need violence from this event will insure it starts... The shot
that killed the Arch Duke....



For over six months now, I've said September was going to be a pivotal point
in the Middle East. 



It is most likely now a critical point for Europe and the US.





http://webmail.austin.rr.com/do/redirect?url=http%253A%252F%252Fenglish.aljazeera.net%252Findepth%252Fopinion%252F2011%252F09%252F201192065551745558.html





A TURKISH ALLIANCE WITH EGYPT? RIGHT!!!!

Mr. Davutoglu may be recognized as a strategic architect for Turkey, but the idea of him developing a working alliance with Egypt is really stretching it!

The odds of Turkey convincing the Muslim Brotherhood they will need to step aside for a Sectarian government after being suppressed for over forty years are slim to none.

Egypt is not Turkey….. Arabs are not Ottomans… Egypt will not be part of the Ottoman plan!

The speech by Mr Davutoglu may sound great to youthful college kids, but reality is the life that lives off of college campuses and outside political cocktail parties.

Nice try Turkey…. Egypt wont buy it!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/middleeast/turkey-predicts-partnership-with-egypt-as-regional-anchors.html?_r=1&ref=world

SEPTEMBER 18TH .. THE WEEK AHEAD

Starting this week, the Middle East is only going get more complicated and most likely more dangerous.

Lets take a look at the " Big Picture" before things get more confusing.

Yemen: 

If anyone thought that just because Yemen has been off the radar for the past two months it was no longer a valuable topic, they were sadly mistaken.

Most of us who have been watching and talking about Yemen are convinced a potential Civil War is more likely than at anytime in the Arab Spring.  ( I still refer to the Arab Spring as the " Tunisian Virus" in my little world).

I would speculate Iran has not pushed their 'plan' for Yemen as hard as they could be given they are placing most of their hope for ' Distraction' on the Palestinian Statehood issue.

Iran's  fallback plan included Yemen and I am sure it still does.

The problem with Yemen, at the moment, is internal and tribal.

The youthful University Students are no longer the center of attention.

The issue is not based on what tribes are going to support the Radical Islamist in Yemen and what tribes are going to be loyal to the current government?

The violence witnessed today, some of the worst in the past four months, is a grave indication of where things are heading.

AQAP  plans for Yemen has become the most disturbing issue to the West.

They are perfectly positioned to take full advantage of the turmoil surrounding the capital and the government.

The government struggles with tasking troops to deal with AQAP issues and keeping the capital from falling to the protestors.

The US and the West struggles with knowing the AQAP issue is alive and well in Yemen and not being seen as supporting an unpopular government that   is now under the Arab Spring spell.

How bad Yemen can become is anyone's guess right now.

How Saudi deals with the Yemen issue just became, as they were fearing, a secondary issue behind the Palestinian Statehood event.

AQAP and Iran can bring pressure to Saudi and the GCC right now that they simply are not ready for.

The good news is, AQAP and Iran are not necessarily on the 'same sheet of music'.

Syria:

Slowly but surly the opposition, in my opinion, is getting it's act together.

I think it is obvious they are receiving " outside help" and that is a topic for conversation all on it's own.

What I found interesting this week was watching the protestors burn the Chinese flag and the Russian flag!

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot for once!

For anyone nation to be perceived as even being remotely understanding of Assad right now is politically dangerous.

The rumors of armed resistance from city to city continues to grow and event the more peaceful minded leaders and organizers are turning to violence.

Assad may not be close to being tossed out yet, but the idea of him staying in power seems less and less likely.

My hunch is Iran is quietly looking for a way to support some other acceptable government in  Syria and not lose control of Syria's actions.

As I have said before, if Assad even thinks Iran is contemplating abandoning him, his entire attitude is going to change.

The hint that could be happening is watching Assad's relationship with Turkey.

If he really...really... wants to take revenge on Iran potential betrayal, he will run to the Turkish government and do so very publicly.

That is a concept that could get him killed!

Turkey:

One of the most complicated issue taking place in the Middle East, even more complicated than the Arab Spring, is Turkey!

Many experts are both confused and actually worried on the course Turkey seems to be taking.

You have read my theory on what Turkey is up to and I am as confident now as I have been in my belief.

If one is to step way... way back from the events of the Middle East, one would see three major groups.

The reemerging Ottoman Empire ( Turkey)

The attempted reemergence of the Persian Empire ( Iran)

And the uncoordinated and frankly very fractioned Arab Union / Movement.

The old " Colonial Powers" don't count given they are not part of the potential change but rather the face of the past that is being changed... via the Arab Spring.

Oh ya.. in the middle of this madness is this place called Israel.

Turkey's apparent change in attitude towards Israel, if true and I think it is,  the most disturbing attribute of the " New Turkey".

No one really believes Turkey wants a war with Israel, but the history of so called civilized man has many chapters based on unwanted / unintended wars.

The idea that Turkey is positioning itself to be the new regional power is not that far fetched.

The lengths they are willing to go to in order to make this happen brings pure tension and speculation to the forefront.

Egypt:

Near-term issues for Egypt are going to prove to be real test for the Egyptian Military.

Sinai based attacks on Israel are a true nightmare for them.

Preparation for Palestinian   protest and possibly riots have them overwhelmed at the moment.

Stack on top of these issues the growing dissatisfaction with the election process and the Egyptian military is all but buried in stress.

For them to wake up and find out Israel has lashed out at yet another attack initiated from the Sinai, could easily prove to be too much for them to control.

Ok, this week could become one the history books will speak of for years to come.

The Middle East is a powder keg and the only ones that could benefit from it is Iran.

The GCC, the EU and the US have to come together quickly on a Varity of issues and it seems that is increasingly impossible to do.

As I have said time and time again.... Iran is the one that needs a distraction in order to hold onto Syria and their dream of a nuclear Persian Empire.

Although they will be seen in the history books as the ones instrumental in bringing the Middle East to the point of crisis, Israel will take the immediate blame.

Israel is backed into a corner, much to the delight of the young Arab youths who think that will bring about " change".

The fact of the matter is, the change they are about to live through will become a nightmare they simply couldn't imagine.