OMINOUS SIGNS!

Two quick discussions tonight that have dangerous ramifications.

This article about a Syrian Official defecting and giving a statement as to what he has witnessed will play huge in the Middle East and probably has Iran steaming.

It’s one thing for some half crazed twenty year old to stand in front of a cell phone camera and rant about people shooting at them.

It is a much different pitch when a respected Official calmly stands in front of a camera and goes into great detail about what he has witnessed and why he can no longer support the government he has supported for years.

If the numbers he quoted are true, and I would bet they are, then the pressure on Assad is going to get much worse.

As I said earlier, this event is only further infuriating Iran and that leads to my second point of discussion tonight.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/08/2011831212956927978.html

Threats to Iran and Threats by Iran.

Iran’s desire to hijack the Arab Spring is relentless along with useless!

For Iran to make threats about the US hijacking the movement is simply a further sign of how worried they are about the eventual outcome.

Some may see this as a statement about Syria, but my bet is the issue here is actually Libya!

It’s no secret Iran would love to influence the future government of Libya not just to keep the West from calling the shots, but to limit the ever growing power of the Muslim Brotherhood.

What I did notice in this article is Iran didn’t take credit for the Arab Spring as they have in the past.

Perhaps he just forgot to mention that asinine  claim?

One thing is for certain, Iran knows what direction the Arab Spring is moving and it is not in their favor.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.ee159abe0e0b3f7c4e870162182b6233.2c1&show_article=1

The second article on this topic is more serious than Iran’s threat.

For the French to talk about potential attacks on Iran’s Nuclear program  we would have to assume they “reviewed” this statement with several key allies prior to release.

The ability to play “ Good Cop… Bad Cop” can not be overlooked here.

I would have like to have heard the response in Iran when this story broke.

For months now the Iranian government has been in  a desperate race to beat the Arab Springs arrival in Iran by announcing it’s nuclear shield.

What’s even more dangerous is the concept of Iran truly believing Israel will wait that long.

I have said this before and I will say it again; both Iran and Israel are near a “ use or lose” point in their conflict.

Iran is losing its key strategic and tactical tools to combat Israel … Hamas… Hezbollah … Syria…

Israel is losing 30 yrs of agreed upon buffer zones with Egypt.. Lebanon and Syria…

Israel fears the events of September more than any event in their recent history.

The question becomes, what will they do about it?

What will Iran be willing to do?

These two are heading full speed at each other and the world seems to underestimating just what could happen.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.08e95fba9a75ed31e6c5e4213995533c.111&show_article=1 



HEZBOLLAH’S DECISION TIME GROWS NEAR!

Nasrallah maybe a crazed fanatic, but he is no fool!

The concept of Hezbollah deciding to break away from Syria is not a new.

The idea that Hezbollah may abandon Assad and yet keep some alliance with a new government in Syria is a new twist.

It is a sure bet Nasrallah is talking to Iran, behind Assad’s back, and the two are plotting some escape route for this dire event called Syria.

War or betrayal?

What path will the two of them chose?

For Hezbollah to bank on a new Dictator, sympathetic to the Hezbollah cause is a stretch at best.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and the Sunni population see their “ time in the sun” coming in Syria and the wishes of Hezbollah won’t be considered.

Iran can only see Nasrallah’s predicament as yet another example of how the “Master Plan” for Iran is falling apart.

The complications of the Syrian revolt have been known and anticipated from the very first protest.

Where it ends is probably understood and feared all at the same time.

Violence has been the easy answer in the Middle East for more than four thousand years.

It is probably going to be the answer to the Syrian Revolt and beyond..

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/29/will-hezbollah-desert-assad-before-the-end/



ARAB LEAGUE AND SYRIAN MILITARY DEFECTIONS!

With the Arab League meeting in Cairo for the first time since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, it is becoming clear they have no plan or even a concept of a plan to deal with Syria.

The League fears the results of the uprising as much as they fear the West potential reactions to Syrian government violence.

They must mimic Turkey by sounding alarmed, but not committing to siding with the revolt.

They know all too well where the revolt is heading… into their capitals!

But, as they sit in Cairo and try to find a way to sound concerned about the common people of Syria, something they have no concept of, they must also weigh the danger of looking like an organization of impudent  fools.

They are stuck in a classic case of, “ be careful what you ask for”.

 What worries me more than their empty actions on Syria is their ability to completely miscalculate the September, UN vote on the Palestinian statehood issue.

The members of the AL know all too well how dangerous this issue truly is and creating an environment where Israel and Iran could blunder into a regional war must be avoided.

For the League to promote the PA statehood issue with little “behind the scene” double-cross  homework, an art form in Arab countries, would be disastrous.

As has been the case for decades, the Arab Nations must work hard to limit the success of the Palestinian cause while showing how ‘compassionate’ they are for the Palestinian people….. Yep… like I said… an art form in the Middle East.  

So, the Arab League sits and drinks tea and gives canned press statements all the time working hard behind the scene to limit the success of the Syrian and Palestinian people.

Change is not what any of them want and that includes a Palestinian state or a free Syria.

Tactical Discussion:

Since the first day of the Syrian revolt I have talked about the danger, to Assad that is, of Sunni Military defections.

Small units in an unorganized fashion are not the level of defections that will topple Assad.

Some of the heavy handed assaults on cities such as Hama were most likely the result of the Syrian military dealing with defecting slices of units.

As these defections continue, Assad’s military must deal with the possibility by taking several actions that will only lead to more stress on the military still loyal to him.

1. He must insure the units that are “at risk” of defection are not given weaponry that could act as force multipliers such as armored vehicles and indirect fire weapons.

2. He must insure these “ at risk” units are not utilized in missions that would increase their members desire to defect… I.E.. don’t use them in missions where they will make face to face contact with the Syrian population.

3. He must insure these  “ at risk” units are “watched”.

In taking these actions, Assad places even more of a burden on his loyal units and their leadership.

As I stated several months ago, the “doubt” that is generated by defections is so terribly contagious, few military organizations have the ability  to maintain operational status.

Paranoia is the disease created by defections and paranoia runs fast and deep in Tyrannical leaderships.

Rumors of defections are as damaging as actual defections.

For every story Assad hears on Al Jazeera and other news media platforms, about defections and rumors of defections, he is more and more inclined to overact.

The resistance understands this “weapon” all too well!!!

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/28/syrian-army-fights-defectors-near-damascus/



AS THE ARAB SPRING TURNS TO FALL…!

Months ago, when the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus/ was really getting underway, I made three general predictions.

1. All roads would eventfully lead to Israel and the Palestinian Statehood issue.

2.  The ‘movement’ would lead to Iran realizing war with Israel maybe their only way to survive the “revolution”.

3.  The Social Revolutionary movement and the Fundamentalist would battle over who is really the champion of the cause.

As September goes from being the future to becoming the present, I feel safe in my statement that all three of my predictions are coming true.

Let me explain why I believe all three of my predictions are moving forward into the Arab Fall and soon to be the Arab Winter; we may not make it to the Arab Winter!.

The Palestinian Statehood issue becomes center stage for all three predictions!

If the theme of the Arab Spring was and is “Injustices, then the Palestinian Statehood issue was bound to be the cornerstone event.

Israel and the UN have understood this from the moment both recognized the Arab Spring was more than just a Tunisian event.

Iran sees their future when they look to Syria and Egypt and this has moved them to search for a way out of their pending  doom.

As Hamas pulled away from them and Hezbollah became embroiled in the STL issue, Iran understood the best Defense is a good Offense.  

Prodding the Israelis with border protest was an easily identifiable “ clue” as to the course of action Iran was going to take.

Iran knew they had to  make the Israeli, Palestinian confrontation the center piece of the Arab Spring.

Iran could not  wait for a Syrian style protest to appear inside their country.

As September approaches, the focus of the Arab public and the world media must be the PA statehood issue.

It must suck every once of energy out of the Arab Spring even if it leads to war.

Here is the problem.

Most wars start with a disastrous miscalculation on the part of one the parties involved and Iran is fulfilling this historical theory.

To save itself, it must risk warfare with Israel and bank on Israel’s restrained response.

What Iran has seemingly forgotten is  what the key issue to Israel is when it comes to Iran.

Yes Israel agonizes over the PA statehood issue, but when Iran’s name enters the conversation, the focus becomes…. nuclear weapons.

This is the disastrous miscalculation I mentioned above.

Iran is nearly to the point they must chose between civil unrest and a controlled… limited war with Israel.. hopefully executed by Hamas and Hezbollah with litlte impact to Iran itself.

This becomes the second huge miscalculation on Iran’s part, but this is one that some of their leaders understand to be flawed.

Hamas and Hezbollah willingness to destroy themselves in a war with Israel for the sake of the future Persian Empire is a stretch at best.

Something Israel seems to understand better than Iran.

Finally, Iran sees the true leadership of the Arab Spring and because of that, they understand their options are limited.

The Social Revolutionaries of the Academic arena, over the course of the past several months, have beaten Iran in the public perception fight over the Arab Spring.

Discounting the Muslim Brotherhood’s hijacking scheme for the Arab Spring, one that has no Iranian motive, the Social Revolutionaries are truly seen as the champignons of the movement.

Iran knows all too well these champions will bring the movement into Iran.. along with the help of the Muslim Brotherhood.

So, the concepts of Control of the movement, war with Israel and Palestinian Statehood are intertwined beyond separation.

The movement will bring two issues to the forefront; the survival of the Iranian government and it’s   dream of a Persian Empire and Israel’s need to deal with the Iranian issue once and for all.

There will be an “Arab Fall”, but it I am not sure there will be an Arab Winter.

Fall may lead to conflict!

September is here and so is the true danger of the Arab Spring.



SEPTEMBER IS ALMOST HERE!!

This article strikes right to the point I have been talking about since January  of this year. 

Between the STL and the potential loss of Syria, Iran finds itself in a 

desperate position. 

For Iranian leadership, the dream of the "Persian Empire" is all but gone and the reality of survival is about to take place. 

Iran has to come to grips with the following facts. 

1.    Hamas as a strategic war fighting tool has been lost to the allure of the Muslim Brotherhood. ( Egypt) 

2.       The STL indictments could lead to Hezbollah losing its grip on 

Lebanon. (Odds are better than 50 .. .50) 

               a.   Something the MB would love to see. 

b.   Lebanon's chances of sliding into conflict grows larger with each passing day. 

         i.      The end result is Iran losing its second strategic tool for conflict with Israel. (Hezbollah's second front on Israel's border). 

1.      Syria's pending loss as a Satellite of Iran with the reality of a Turkish influenced / Sunni  based government.   ( Ottomans 1. Persian 0 ) 

2.      Immanent social disorder inside Iran based upon the fall of Syria. 

                        (The Spring comes to Iran .. finally) 

               a. As oppressive as Iran's leadership is, it will not stop the 

        movement if Assad falls. 

i.         Iran is fooling itself if it thinks it can control 

" social networking". 

   b. The "Resistance" has had months to set up the infrastructure    to do so.. with "friends". (Articles and blogs abound on this topic.) 

 So, how important does the Palestinian issue become to Iran in September? 

 I submit it becomes an issue of national survival. 

Pushing Israel to violence without openly starting the war has to be Iran's only option, but they will have to be ready for total war; something that will be virtually impossible for them to achieve.

Iran has to get the attention shifted and the Palestinian issue is the only real option they have left. 

The vote in the UN will be dramatic regardless of the outcome. 

If it is delayed, as some speculate it could be, riots and protest will be the result.. 

  Not just in Israel, but Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon as well. 

 They will be huge and violence is all but assured.

  ( Iran will make sure of it)  

If the US is forced to actually Veto the UNSC vote, it won't get that far, then the results are the same only with open hostility to the US; more than usual.  

If the UNGA votes for anything other than membership, the results will be the same. 

It is for this reason that Israel has announced a mobilization starting near September 10th. 

The rest of the world may underestimate what is going to happen in September of 2011, but Israel will not. 

Oh ya.. Iran does have one true friend left. North Korea!!!! 

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/23/the-new-alliance-troubling-tehran/ 



LIBYA.  DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH FOR A “DEMOCRACY” ANYTIME SOON.

Most of us ‘Realist” understands the daunting task ahead for Libya.

The process of building a functional government  is going to require help and help from only those the Libyan people will accept.

So, what if the majority of the people in the new “Free” Libya decide they want a government and constitution based on Shari Law?

The hope of the West will be a Libya that follows a Turkish model and that is wishful thinking.

The bad news was already being seen late in the day when several Rebel groups were setting up their own “checkpoints” in the Capital!

Not easy to notice, but never the less the process was under way.

Does that mean Libya is staring out on the wrong foot?

Here is the problem; I’m not sure the Rebel Leadership was ready for such a fast victory.

Yes, some preliminary plans may have been drawn up for the post revolution government, but I would be willing to bet not everyone was on board!

The euphoria of today could easily turn into concern over the next 48 hrs and then slide into despair!  

Can Libya turn into a Somalia?

Yes!

Will there be a better effort to salvage Libya than what took place in Somalia back in the 90s?

Yes.

Why?

Oil!

Sound too simplistic?

It’s not.

The fighting may be over or at least drawn down to controllable levels, but the struggle of Libya has just begun.

The future of Libya is very much up in the air and the West knows it.

Was there good news today?

Yes…. From the viewpoint of Iran and Assad.

The news on Syria was just about off the radar most of the day.

I hope Iran and Assad enjoyed the reprieve because all eyes are quickly coming back to Syria.





IRAN NEEDS GADDAFI TO HOLD ON!!!

The last thing Iran needs right now is for all eyes to turn back to Syria.

For the past few days the trend has been just what Iran and Lapdog Assad needed; everyone watching Libya and Gaza!

Behind the scene Turkey is working hard on their next move over Syria because being a future “leader” demands constant action and never-ending leadership.

Iran knows this and that makes them even more desperate to keep the world’s attention somewhere else.

So, Gaddafi needs to keep up the pressure and keep the media ridding around in trashed out pickup trucks driven by low functioning IQ idiots all for the sake of praying you can get shot at on live feed; at least this is how Iran sees it!

Already today there were protestors yelling, “ Assad you are next”.

Now, Iran has not completely exhausted their Libyan option.

If anyone believes for a single second the better days for Libya are about to start… well … they should go back to watching “ The Batchelor” or WWE Wrestling.  

The LMB and “others” are going to struggle to implement what the West is terrified of and that is yet another country falling to Shariah Law.

The odds of the ragtag alliance in Libya forming a functional government anytime in the near future are about a BILLION to ONE!!!

Tribal allegiances in a land that has absolutely no notion of a freely elected government will impede the hopes of the West.

The bottom line; Libya is a long ways away from a peaceful future and that is just the kind of news Iran is praying for.

I do have bad news for the Persian Empire.

If all that takes place in Libya is arguing and protesting, the lack of blood and bodies will mean the loss of  news coverage.

So, Iran has to have a fallback plan and that plan is keeping the violence moving in Libya.

Their ability to “support” radical elements in Libya is a fact the West can not overlook.

For all that we have talked about over the past five months when it comes to Libya, the real Iranian plan is about to unfold in September!

But,  the MB and Egypt and possibly Turkey may have other ideas for the PA issue and Israel and I am betting Iran is not part of their planning right now.

Libya is shifting to the sidelines and the stage is set for what could be the most dramatic event for the Middle East in decades…