TUNISIA TRIES TO JUMP THE 'POND'

Remember what I  said back when Egypt was starting to have problems?

 The ability of the 'Tunisian Virus'  to get to the states is going to happen at some
point in time.

When you read this article, you can see what Al Jazerra is trying to imply.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/03/2011328111314767851.ht

The common thread, or at least the one our enemies will try and weave, will be based on some fashion of 'injustice'.  

Now I know New York is known for protest and getting 5k people into the
streets of New York is as easy as announcing free tickets to a Yankees / Red
Sox's game, but again,  notice how Al Jazerra  shaped this event!

If you look at the 'Tunisian Virus' most if not all of the revolts / protest
/ have started with 'failed' rallies that get people to meet each other,
exchange Twitter accounts, FB accounts  and basically  lay the groundwork
for the next demonstration.

Professional organizers are going to get involved in this movement and I  would bet
they already have.

It is not too difficult to imagine that  Iran or others, UBL, would be more than ecstatic  to see some version of social discord in the US and the sooner the better.

The event in Wisconsin a few weeks ago was the target of foreign media information operations, I.O.

The problem was, the issue was not broad based at the beginning and by the time it became a 'Union Busting' shaped discussion, supported by some of or own, Western / Left leaning media, events in Libya had overtaken the American public; that and the tragedy of Japan.

Wisconsin and New York may very well be ' miss fires' but it has given our enemies a grand opportunity to focus on once again 'weaponizing' the 'Tunisian Virus'.


THE DANGER OF HEROES

It appears Kadafi's forces have temporarily adapted to the Air Cover.



Small teams that move out looking like the rebel forces.



The teams converge on a point do a quick salvo fire of mortars and then move
out again.



It  sound as if they are spreading out along the sides of the highways to
keep any aircraft from being able to take out more than one or two vehicles at a time.

Untrained Rebels don't know the difference between mortar fire and tank /
artillery fire.. hence panic sets in and they give up ground.



The NATO forces have a great deal of Desert to cover with a limited number of aircraft.

That makes it very difficult to spot, properly identify and engage known targets.


 What the Mad Dog is doing is creating a Rebel Stampede!!!

Kadafi's forces are making a lot of noise and the Rebels panic!


The Rebels are going to need someone or some group, WARNING!!!, to help them understand what is happening  to them.

As long as they believe columns of tanks are coming at them, they will
continue to run.

 This tactic will become ineffective if the Rebels take a defensive line and
wait till they actually  can see what the enemy is doing.

 Here is the problem.

 
Who are the 'Tactical Advisors' for the Rebels right now????



If not our troops, then you can bet the 'Radicals' will fill this void. 

 That will make them 'heroes' in the eyes of the young Rebels.

Heroes are followed when the fighting is done.

Six months from now the conversation can go something like this. (Radical / Hero) " I would like you to meet a friend of mine who can help you with all these issues of rebuilding Libya's Government. He is a good man and I think  he can help you".

When someone questions why the young Rebels are listening to this new person, the answer will be,

" I owe him my life".



SYRIA FOLLOWS THE FOOTSTEPS STEP BY STEP!

It appears not only does the 'Tunisian Virus' seem to infect at an amazing speed, but it seems to make the 'host' follow the same useless preventive steps.

Syria announcing it's Government has stepped down today is somewhat comparable to a Mayor in Nazi Germany declaring he is leaving an Hitler saying "everything is good now". WOW. . Did I just compare Syria to Nazi Germany?? Yep... You bet!!! If the shoe fits, wear it!!!

Look at the order of events in the past two months.

            1. The infected nation declares assemblies to protest are not authorized.

            2.  When that doesn't work, they announce, "REFORMS"!! Right!!!

            3.  When that doesn't work, they announce key members of the government stepping                 down or being replaced.

            4.  When that doesn't work, they announce the ' incentives for the public like cold hard cash in the poor's pockets.

            5. And Finally, they announce the pending bloodshed or the proverbial 'Civil War' threat.

If you look at Syria, they have accomplished steps, 1,2 and 3.

I don't know they may just skip 4 given the money issues in Syria. Number 4 seems to be a trick for the OPEC states.

So, Look for step 5 from Syria in the next few days.

Don't forget what I have been preaching over and over again.

Syria and their 'Master' Iran may add a twist to step 5 by cooking off an event somewhere else.

It could be that Bahrain is about to pop back on the radar.



WHATI??? MAHDI????

So Iranian senior leadership believes the time of the 'Mahdi' is near?

At face value or if the world was just bebopping  along right now, that might be a laughable statement.

The problem is the world is not bebopping along and as is always the case in the Middle East there could Easley be a 'message in the message'.

Let's take a look at why Iran may be sending this message at this particular point in time.

1.  Iran is potentially in REAL,, REAL trouble!!

            I've been talking for weeks now about the 'Tunisian Virus' and its ability to infect Iran.

            The Virus is in Syria and they have it bad! This creates pure panic in Iran.

            Iran cannot execute the dream of the next Persian Empire without the proxy of Syria.

            They cannot execute their grand plan against Israel if the Virus infects Syria and then   Iran before Iran is ready.

            They know if the common people in Iran really revolt against the fanatical leadership, the            regular military may follow them. It is a VERY young Military.

            The loyal units may even have large defection rates.

2. Iran may be deciding to move up their timetable!

            They may very well believe they don't have  a choice.

            Time is not on their side with the Virus.

            The violence in Israel over the past two weeks may not be a 'home grown' event.

                        I don't believe they are.

            Iran knows Israel will not wait for Iran to take the first strike.

            Iran saw Israel begin to prepare for far more ominous events by deploying the ' Iran, I   mean Iron Dome'.

It seems so illogical for Iran to actually be trying to rationalize the advantage of a Regional War, but everything their twisted leadership believes in could be lost in the Virus and I  can't imagine an issue that would make them any more desperate than coming to the realization they are about to lose control of not only Iran, but their dream of regional dominance.   

Second Order Effects of the Virus!!

They could be far worse than the Virus itself.



THINK THE MAD DOG CAN KILL PEOPLE? LOOK AT SYRIA'S HISTORY!

If logic and history  follows, we should be attempting  a " No Fly Zone" over Syria in about two weeks!!

Yes, I am being facetious, or I hope I'm being facetious!!

I will not comment on what actions the US takes and I will not second guess or nation's leadership, but I doubt that professional attitude will hold with the rest of the public.

Let me get to my point.

In 1982, the Syrian Government slaughtered over 20,000 people in their last real uprising.

Syria is, as I have been saying all along, in real.... real ... trouble!

The actions of the old Syrian Government will not garner the same response of the free world if the current Syrian  leadership tries to repeat history.

Syria understands this, yet they are as desperate as they were in 1982, if not more so.

The 'Cold War' is no longer the 'glue' that holds the Middle East together.

The fear of Super Power conflict is not the counterweight to idiot dictators it use to be.

Having said this, Syria is desperate to keep the 'Tunisian Virus' from spreading any further.

The options of the Government are few and they will not like any of them.

            1. Step down . OUT OF THE QUESTION!

            2. Turn into a Civil War. Hard to do when over 90 percent of your military forces are made up of           Sunni young men.  A HUGE problem and Syria knows it.

            3.  Ask for help!  Interesting twist to this logic put out by DEBKA ( www.debka.com) today.

             A great place to find simple facts about the status of the Middle East.

            http://www.debka.com/article/20803/

            4. Turn up the heat somewhere else!  I actually beat DEBKA to this theory a few weeks ago, so           that gives me the right to talk to this point.

                        A. To use Hamas and Hezbollah without the permission of Iran would be a real crack in                           the Alliance between Syria and Iran.

                        B. Iran still intends to keep Hamas and Hezbollah as proxy war-fighter options in case                              they have to go to war with Israel.

                        C. Iran could support the concept of a limited action by their puppet Armies if they                                   believe the Syrian situation is getting out of hand. HINT .... IT IS!!

So, What do I think is about to happen?

I cannot over emphasize how dangerous the events in Syria truly are!

As DEBKA stated at the end of their article, it is not out of the question option number four is chosen.

I believe they will go with option four.

To do this they will have to get permission, guidance from  Iran.

Iran will give the green / red light.

If Iran refuses Syria's request, and I don't think they will, then Syria has yet another HUGE decision to make.

Heed their 'Master's' guidance and do as Iran tells them, or ignore Iran and strike out on their own.

Assad has given the idea of breaking away from Iran some thought in the past two years, but not any real serious thought.

That may be about to change.

The next few days are going to be a simmering time for the Middle East and especially Israel.

One thing I will be watching that I have been curious about for several years is the issue of who really 'calls the ball' when it comes to Hamas and Hezbollah?

When push comes to shove, who does Hamas and Hezbollah listen to? Iran / Syria?

Can we be about to see a conflict / split / between not only Iran and Syria but Hamas and Hezbollah?

It's going to be a very interesting coming week.



PUTIN AS THE MIDDLE MAN????

Interesting to see Saudi, Russia and Israel in a conversation.

The US Secretary of Defense was there early as well, Moscow that is.

Remember what I've been saying about Israel and Saudi having to form  some level of an alliance to  counter Iran's actions in the Gulf Nations.

Maybe they had my computer tapped or maybe great minds just think alike!

Oh well:

Someting else happened today that caought my eye. 

It looks as if the Gulf Nations are catching a clue on who the real trouble makers might be.

http://www.iloubnan.info/en/actualite/id/58632/titre/Gulf-to-deport-Hezbolla

The concept of tossing out Shiite, mostly  Lebanese members, who mostly likely are Hezbollah opratives, from the Gulf Nations is one way of addressing the problem, yet it might have second order effects they need to think about. ( More to follow)

Putting the potential trouble makers out of the area is a concept that needs to be followed up by a sound media campaign.

They need to start telling the story of why they are doing this and give as many examples as they can.

In the typical Arab fashion, if they can't find that many examples, just make them up. Wild stories packed with 'half truths'   is a daily occurrence in the Middle East!

Ok. Next issue:

So what's in this for Mr. Putin?

http://www.debka.com/article/20795/

Putin's 'Center of Gravity', sorry if that confuses you, but it basically means 'what's really important to him', is oil and the whole oil industry.

He, like most of us, sees the Middle East from one major perspective; what is the future of the world oil industry?

Keeping the region in some form of balance is arguably as important to Russia as it is to the US.

It could very well be the Russians, that would be Putin, are trying to find a way to control the course and or damage of the 'Tunisian Virus' as much as the US is.

Having the Saudis, Israelis and the US Secretary of Defense all pass through one town within 24 hours of each other is not a coincidence!

Now an alternative viewpoint must be at least reviewed given the background of Putin; once KGB, always KGB.

It can be argued the Russians, that would be Putin again, would stand a huge advantage with oil at 150+ per barrel.

A shooting War in the Middle East would give the word that level of prices and probably much more.

So, is Mr. Russia, I mean Putin, really "Here to help" ?

I have a sign that has hung in my office for years.

" Love your neighbors, but keep your powder dry".

Finally;

Last night I said I thought I knew where this whole Virus movement may be heading.

If it had not been for the two events I talked about here, I would have addressed my theory.

That will have to wait until tomorrow night.



THE FOUR PHASES  OF TRANSFORMATION

Ok; Things continue to get more and more complex with the 'Tunisian Virus'.

Let's break things down to a simple process to understand where we might be heading.

It appears this movement is breaking down into four parts.

            1.  PROTEST:

             The initial protest and then follow on protest with some level of violence mixed in as the end-        state, ether brought on by the oppressive government of the impacted country or by the ' people          standing in the shadows'. yes they are there, trust me.

            2.  UNACCEPTABLE VIOLENCE WITH MEDIA COVERAGE:

            It's at this time that the point of no return seems to be reached.

            Modern day Social Media, not the organized press, seems to be the oxygen applied to the flame.

            Can you say 'You Tube'?

            3. GOVERNMENTAL PANIC:

            The end result of this phase seems to be the collapse of the recognized / standing leadership.

            4.  UNORGANIZED, REORGANIZATION.

            What does this mean? Take the time to read  the current status of Tunisia and Egypt.

So how does this help us predict where all this is heading?

These four phases of the 'Tunisian Virus' have a relatively short time span.

Thirty days maximum for the whole thing to run its course. That is a FAST Virus!

Again! How does knowing this help us?

It's simple; those who have a plan, will stand a much better chance of surviving the Virus than those who don't.

I submit that the Mad Dog had a plan. He knew from the very first protest he was going to fight, blame others and do whatever it took to survive

That might seem like a ruthless plan, but it was a plan.

Those that didn't have a plan, Tunisia, Egypt, died quickly.

Does having a plan mean survival?

No!

It does mean you have the ability to counter the Virus more than the unprepared.

So, where does this all end?

I've been talking about this for over two months now and up until I watched a program on Al Jazerra today I still couldn't make a valid statement.

What I witnessed today was a  Open Forum discussion on the future of the Muslim Brotherhood.

If you get a chance to watch the clip, I strongly recommend you do so.

The MB has a plan, it's is complicated and very diverse.

When the dust settles in every Muslim country that takes on the 'Tunisian Virus' the MB's plan is to step from the ashes as the accepted form of Government and Social framework.

Sounds outrageous?

Watch the clip.

http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/empire/2011/03/2011323151718474253.html

I think I know where this is all heading.

Does it have to happen this way?

No!

More to follow





WHO'S ON FIRST? I DON'T KNOW... SECOND BASE!!!

Not going to say much about operations in Libya tonight given the confusion over what needs to be done and what can be accomplished.  It is not my place to second guess my peers as they continue to execute missions.

I want to spend this time talking about what really worries me and that is Syria, Bahrain, and Yemen.

Syria:

            Events in Syria today were out of the ordinary. Those that protested  where not the usual suspects            that have taken to the streets in the past few weeks.

            These groups were 'common' folks, Sunni, who have not had the nerve to protest in the past.

            That is a very troubling trend for the leadership of Syria and Iran.

            It's the first real sign the 'Tunisian Virus' is taking hold in Syria.  

            I would have loved to have heard the phone calls between Damascus and Tehran today.

            Remember; trouble in Syria is not all good news. 

            In my opinion, it's very bad news.

Bahrain:

            If Iran was not willing to turn up the heat too quick in Bahrain, they may very well change their     minds now that Syria is starting to worry them.

            A huge distraction to take the 'eyes' off of Syria is not out of the question for Iran.

            Extended violence in Bahrain could be just the ticket Iran is looking for and arming up the Shi of    Bahrain is not hard for Iran  to do.

            Saudi understands this all too well.

Yemen:

            Having yet another leader, if you can call him that, warn of a 'Civil War' is not what we need to    hear right now.

            Tribal lines run deep in the Middle East and Yemen is no exception.

            The next few days in Yemen could be the competition for Libya when it comes to news coverage.

The Chess Game in the Middle East is getting harder and harder to predict.

The stakes are going to go up exponentially if Syria begins to see real violence in the streets.

\

IRAN FORGOT TO GIVE SYRIA THE ANTIDOTE

for two months now I've been talking about the 'Tunisian Virus' and the impact on the Middle East and North Africa.

I've talked about how Iran has made a  very good attempt to 'weaponize' the Virus in order to utilize it against the Gulf Nations.

I've talked about how difficult and downright dangerous it is for any nation to think it can control the Virus.

Well; in the past three days, Syria seems to a prime example of just how uncontrollable  this Virus really is!

Iran's  clever sound bites about the US being fast to support the people of Egypt  and Libya, yet being somewhat silent on the topic of Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi have played well so far.

The shoe now seems to be on the other foot.

Iran must justify the heavy-handed  response of Syria and in doing so, play right into the hands of those in Iran who also want 'Change'.

"Change" ... A buzz word that seems to have a much different meaning in the Muslim world than in the US.

So what is going on?

Nothing has changed from what I predicted would happen two months ago.

The 'Tunisian Virus' shows the ability to attack all host nations and that is going to be a troublesome concept outside of North Africa and the Middle East if the world economy continues to tank.

Here is one true advantage Iran and Syria have over the free world.

They control their press/ media.

The pictures painted in Iran and Syria will be only what the leadership allows it to be.

A HUGE difference compared to CNN / FOX / BBC / coverage in Egypt, Libya. Tunisia ect .. ect..

Ok. Get ready for this.

We may need to rely on Al Jazerra to keep the news moving in Iran and Syria.

I know that sounds wild, but it just may be the difference maker; that and social medias.

Is Syria in real trouble of social unrest?

Yep! I believe they are.

I told several people today that Syria is to Iran what Bahrain is to Saudi.

The truth is Syria is more important to Iran than Bahrain is to Saudi!!!

Early on in this remarkable event, I stated a wounded Iran and or Syria is a very dangerous moment.

Iran is not Egypt. It is not Libya.

Iran cannot afford to lose Syria as it's 'proxy war-fighter'.

What Iran is willing to do to avoid the 'Tunisian Virus' appearing in Syria and Iran is anyone guess.

I know Yemen and Bahrain and Libya have the media's attention right now, but trust me when I say, we need to keep a very close eye on Syria and Iran.

You can bet Israel is!!

Gadhafi  executed a classic military maneuver today.

            He moved his lead forces in close with the opposition and the civilian population.

            Two things happen when you 'close the distance' with your enemy if you are suffering from air     strikes.

                        1.  You make it much harder for precision weapons to strike intended targets.

                                    Two trucks near each other that look identical, one being a good guy the other                                          being the bad guy, makes it very hard for the pilot to decide what target to hit.  

                        2.  You insure you enemy will inflict civilian casualties and the media will cover that part                           of the attack far more than the actual targets themselves.

            So this morning when you hear how his forces are  being seen moving into the two major 'rebel' strongholds, you understand now what he is trying to accomplish. He is hiding his forces amonsgt the opposition.

This tells us two key strategic facts.

            1. The Mad Dog believes the strikes are not over.

            2.  He anticipates more than just clearing out anti air ops to create a No Fly Zone.

                        He believes Air to Ground attacks are the real goal here, not just a No Fly Zone.



OK; HERE WE GO!

Remember today. Remember when the American People said, "we need to help those poor people in Libya".

I seem to remember the same sentiment soon after 9-11. That is not to compare 9-11 to events in Libya, but the American People have very short memories.

It very possible the Mad Dog may be overcome by events given the destruction of many of his military assets, but if he does survive, a wounded Dog is a very dangerous animal!

A few things to ponder here.

            1. He knew these strikes were probably coming and had ample time to move key assets away         from recently targeted sites.  

                        Don't bank on the fact that because over one hundred missiles were fired that his capabilities are  drastically reduced.

Battle Damage Assessment is a very tricky art and is usually not   reliable  without eyes and ears on the ground to confirm damage.

            2.  Many Arabs were in favor of a no fly zone, but large scale targeting of building complexes       may not sell as well in the press.

            3. You can bet, as I said a few days ago, the Mad Dog will produce civilian casualties, even if he has to kill them himself!

                        Get ready for the Al Jazerra clips of wounded children and Women. It's going to happen.

            4. Iran is taking real good notes. They just got a real good idea of how we target Command and    Control nodes in a hostile nation.

                        What we bombed in Libya will be quickly analyzed  by Iran.

            5.  Those in Libya that were sitting on the fence, not really carinig about the 'Rebels' but not          willing to get involved, will now get involved and do so on the side of the Government.

            It's like the old saying, " It may be a crapy Marriage, but it's my Marriage".

            Nothing sparks Nationalism faster than being attacked.

            Many there felt the conflict was an 'internal' affair.

            We just changed that opinion!

Ok; Don't get me wrong. I've been  for killing  the Mad Dog  since the day of Lockerby; but we are  now deep into what I consider a brilliant trap by the Iranians.

Yep; we, the West, not just the US, have executed just as Iran anticipated we would.

How in the world do we support Saudi, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait ect... ect...  and finally Israel after bombing Libya?

Don't get fooled by some talking head saying, " this is a much different situation. He was killing 'innocent' civilians.

In the eyes of the Arabs, particularly the Shi, there is no difference.

I can't tell you where the military action in Libya may head.

How things start are not near as important as how they end up or how they change.

I can predict one thing for sure.

Over the course of the next few months, Iran is going to make HUGE gains based on the

actions of the ' Colonial Powers'.    Yep, that is the buz word name we will wear after today. Hell' we wear it not anyway.