THE IRANIAN ELECTION RESULTS………WHAT DO THEY INDICATE? 

 So it looks as if the Iranian elections didn’t go well for the so called “hardliners”! 

Before we start jumping up and down and declaring victory for the “moderates”, we need to take a real hard look at a few definitions……….Iranian style.

In Iran, what is a “Hardliner”? 

Someone who calls for the destruction of Israel and see the US / West / as the Great Satan!

In Iran, what is a “Moderate”?

Someone who wishes for the fall of Israel and sees the US / West / as the primary reason for Iran’s problems.

Is this somewhat of an over simplification? Perhaps, but when you get right down to it, it’s as accurate as it needs to be.

So, what has or is taking place in Iran?

Did the West set this process in motion by coming to the table on the nuclear weapons issue?

Well, it didn’t hurt.  The people of Iran are young, demographically, and I would contend the world of social media is doing a great deal more for awareness in all parts of the world than any politically motivated process.

Will this apparent shift lead to an easing of tensions in the region; with Saudi?

Don’t bank on that happening anytime soon.

Will this apparent shift lead to the West / US / stating they got it right on the issue of working with Iran?

Absolutely, as a matter of fact, look for Hillary Clinton to take full credit for being part of this “shift” in Iran and she may do so by the time the sun goes down today!

Politicians never miss a chance to take credit for good news, even if they had nothing to do with how it came about.

Here is what I recommend we do contemplate. Back in 2009, the Iranian youth made a real effort to rise up and be heard as a voice of reason in Iran. It was a movement that predated the Arab Spring and some say it was the Father of the Arab Spring……only it started with Persian youth!

How did that turn out?

Who turned their back on the movement?

Who gave them hope and then walked away allowing them to be rounded up and crushed?

Yep…..the US…..Yep…. The current administration!

My advice to the Iranian youth is to not get those protest signs out too soon! 

Those they may believe helped bring this apparent leadership shift on in Iran, are the last ones they should count on.  Just ask the people of Syria!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35681250

SYRIA’S “PLAN B”….. HOW EMBARRASSING FOR THE WEST ?

Interesting how the Russians frame the issue of hearing a rumor over a “Plan B” for Syria.

Five years ago many argued the end result of a Civil War in Syria would be the partitioning of the country…..much like the theories that ran wild shortly after 2003 and the Iraqi conflict. 

What does dividing a nation accomplish? Why must it take place?

Well, the most simplistic answer is, English Engineers at the End of WWI.   When you get right down to it, the maps that were drawn up for the region set in motion the entire 100 years of strife.

So, if someone does have a “Plan B” for Syria, let me ask the question many are going to ask.

Is there a Plan B for the whole region?  How do you fix a mess created by a completely illogical process that took place nearly 100 years ago?

Now, about this so called Plan B; who came up with the “plan”?  

What are the details of this plan and just how will it be implemented?

So the US / West / states, supposedly, that military operations would not be ruled out to execute Plan B?  Who’s military…… what Alliance?   Did the Saudi’s give up a planning secret when they spoke of operations in Syria? Why did NATO say there would be no support for Turkey if they did take actions in Syria? How does that fit into Plan B?

Yes my friends it is the Western amateur hour once again! 

How could the Russians and the Iranians see this as anything but a feeble threat with absolutely nothing to back it up?

Could the threat be that  the West / US / would be willing to look the other way if the Northern Thunder Alliance decided to move on Syria?

So, to prove a point, the West / US / would be willing to let the region spin into an unpredictable conflict?  

The truth is, who knows……….they just might……………like I said………….It’s amateur hour all over again.

Oh by the way; if you could get  Vegas to let you bet on this current “Truce / Ceasefire”, at about 10 million to one, you could make a lot of money! 

The Turks and the IS fighters are going to honor a “truce”? 

Laughable…………amateur hour based on the desperate actions of clueless so called “Statesmen”. 

LEBANON……… INTO THE STORM? 

A few days have passed since the Saudi government announced to withdrawal of military aid and financial support to Lebanon and the panic has really begun to settle in, in Lebanon that is!

Hariris pending return, or at least the stories of his return, is a sign of just how worried Lebanon’s Sunni population is over the reality of the GCC / Saudi / walking away.

So, what happened?  What took place that brought about this change? Why would Saudi decide to pull its support from a nation it sees as key to countering Iranian expansion?

Two schools of thought and I buy into both of them.

1. The financial cost of continued support is being recalculated, given the price of oil.
2. It was fairly clear that Hezbollah was about to achieve its long standing goal of regaining the Presidency.  By the way, Hezbollah’s comments about Saudi and Northern Thunder will be recorded as a huge strategic error on their part. Those were words Nasrallah would probably love to take back right about now. Imagine the conversations after the phone rang and the Lebanese’s government was informed the Saudi money was not coming?

So, what is the truth? What really happened? My bet is a combination of the two issues stated above is closer to the truth than any single event.

Next question!  What does it mean and where does it lead?

Well, there is one worrying fact that needs to be addressed. Why are the GCC members warning their citizens to leave? Not just avoid traveling there, but actually leave Lebanon!

Again, two schools of thought.

1. Now that it appears the support of the GCC is fading, perhaps they feel their citizens will be the target of Hezbollah retaliation? My opinion, maybe, but the risk of Hezbollah openly targeting GCC citizens in Lebanon would be a huge risk to their newly found “tolerable” status they have found in the West / US. Yes… I said that! The fact of the matter is, most Sunnis in the region now believe the West / US / has struck a new “relationship” with the Masers of Hezbollah, Iran!  Perception counts! A move on the GCC population in Lebanon would put serious pressure on that new found “Tolerable” status. Bottom line…… I don’t buy this one.

2. Lebanon is not going to become a battle ground for the IS members who are being pushed back from the Syrian border. Russian fighter are not going to bomb IS units who have crossed into Lebanon…… at least ……… I don’t think they will!!  It could very well be the GCC / Saudi / sees Lebanon as the one of the next battlegrounds, a battleground the Jordanians are much more likely to not tolerate, not to mention Israel.   How confident am I on this school of thought? Well, I came up with it, so I think I would place my money on my theory or some very close semblance.

As hard as it may seem, the region is actually becoming even more destabilized. The statements and counterstatements are being lost amongst the news stories that seem to pop up every few hours.

I see nothing that is set to calm any of this down. No statements from Lebanon and no magic speeches from Hariri will lead to Saudi and the GCC coming back into Lebanon’s world.  How far away is panic in Lebanon? Someone should get Hariri a better bodyguard team than his Father had…………he’s going to need it. The storm in the region is finally about to consume Lebanon!

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/02/24/Yemeni-govt-says-have-evidence-Hezbollah-is-involved-in-backing-the-Houthis.html

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/02/24/Saudi-envoy-Riyadh-has-not-banned-travel-to-Lebanon-.html

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/566636-what-will-hariris-return-to-lebanon-change

GATHERING IN KUWAIT…. WHAT IS THE IMPLIED MESSAGE?

Short and to the point tonight, but an interesting event took place today and I am sure if anyone would take the time to ask, the answer would be, “no….this meeting has been on the calendar for months”…….standard answer.

So a 30 nation coalition met in Kuwait Monday and it had nothing to do with Northern Thunder?

Even if it was true, would the “other side’ believe it? (Point of reference…interesting the photo the Turkish World Bulletin chose to use for this story). It also appears the Turks were not there, although I didn’t see that stated in the article.  The same level of gathering took place only two weeks earlier in Brussels, so why the meeting in Kuwait? What is the message? Oh….. did I mention the Russians were not in the meeting as well?

Now, the assembly and exercise area for Northern Thunders is just a short drive from this meeting, yet nobody is to believe this event has anything to do with that event. Remember the West / US / was not invited to Northern Thunder, or so the story goes.  

For now, lets not spend time trying to figure out why this meeting took place and why in Kuwait.

Look at this event through the glasses of the Persians and Russians.  Do they believe this is not a not related to Northern Thunder? Is this not a gathering of Combatant Commanders taking one last look at the Plan? I don’t believe that for a minute, but I don’t have to. What matters is what the other side thinks? Remember…………events….confrontation and conflicts have a history of getting started for all the wrong reasons.

Who is talking to whom behind the scene? Who is trying to assure the paranoid that nothing is really…………. “Nothing”? Two major meeting in two weeks and this one on the day yet another ceasefire is set by the Russians and the US.

As a good friend told me once, “in the FBI….there are no such things as ‘coincidences’!

Would a veteran KGB Boss think anything different?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/169705/top-commanders-of-anti-isil-coalition-meet-in-kuwait

NATO…. ARTICLE FIVE …. AND THE MOVIE “FAIL SAFE”

Yesterday, I mentioned the predicament of NATO informing one of its members, Turkey, it would not support any hostile actions implemented by Turkey. Given how this announcement can and most likely will be leveraged by Turkey, I thought it was worthy of further analysis.

First off, let’s get the issue of what Article Five really means to this scenario. It’s simple, Article Five covers the issue of any member of NATO being attacked, not attacking. What Turkey is involved in is shelling Syrian Territory. Now, Turkey would argue they are responding to ongoing attacks from a group they consider to be Terrorist. Here is the problem with that argument. That group is not represented by the country they are operating from. This argument could go around and around and frankly, there are more important topics to consider.

I’ve mentioned before the fact that the Turkish leadership may actually be pushing this argument to test NATO’S resolve. The thought process could very well be, “let’s see just how far NATO is willing to be seen by the Russians as being a Paper Tiger, a relic of the Cold War”. If that is what is taking place, then my bet is the Turks have drastically underestimated the war fatigue Europe and the US is still suffering from. Fifteen years and counting!

Even if the Turks are testing the resolve of NATO, the next level of decision making is one they understand is going to be even harder to deal with. Wars have a long history of getting underway, before anyone really figures out why and how!.  If it’s 2am on the Turkish border with Syria and suddenly an explosion takes place at one of the Turkish artillery sites firing on Syrian land, who will stop what happens next?  How worried is everyone about just such a scenario? Why do we continue to see John Kerry seemingly announcing an immediate cease fire deal on a daily bases?  The level of concern seems to be just below panic, if it is below. Nobody understands this more than the Turks. Cloud the issue of how it really gets started and then watch the position NATO is put in.

Well, this all seems rather defeatist in nature, but those who pray this conflict may not come to pass have one huge advantage.  Are the Russians and the Turks really, really, ready to dive into a conflict with each other? Is that truly what the Tsar and the Ottoman Sultan see as the future of their two nations?  I don’t believe it and I am not in the minority. Even two, irrational world leaders such as the ones in question, have a strong understanding of what this conflict might lead to.   As hard as they might try, as soon as the conflict began, the ability to disengage, the ability to “save face” would quickly disappear. The short answer is this; the price is too great to even risk the event taking place.

Unfortunately, if you just took a deep breath and decided it was safe to go back to watching Dancing with the Stars, you might want to contemplate a worrisome issue.  There is a third party in this formula and this third party simply dreams of the conflict we are horrified might take place.  The Zombies….. Go back and read some of my post from when ISIS first came to the headlines……… Zombies… that’s what I called them and that is just how we are treating them….by the way…..in no Zombie move ever…did the conventional military forces defeat the fast spreading Zombie infection… just a point of reference.  Ok, back to my point. When two opposing forces are in near contact with each other and every mistake seems to be just a trigger pull away, then the margin of error is razor thin.  Reluctance, caution may be the standing order, but it never relieves tension, at least not to level that guarantees safety. Bombs went off in Turkey just three days ago and the Western World’s first reaction was, “don’t use that as an excuse to start a conflict in Syria”! Paranoid? Absolutely! Was it the Kurds, well when the Turks hinted they thought it was, all of Europe held its collective breath. One of the first rules of conflict avoidance between two opposing forces is to create distance between the two. The second is to guarantee swift, immediate communications. I have little confidence ether of these measures is taking place right now. 

Are we close to a conflict that nobody really wants and absolutely no one will know how to stop?

Yes.

Is there a Red Phone between the Ottomans and the Russians? Let’s hope so and let’s also hope there is no “Fail Safe” event.

Now, go back to watching Dancing with the Stars……if you canJ !!!!!

SNAPSHOT

WEEK OF 20 FEBRUARY 2016

 A few years back, I enjoyed posting a very simplistic weekly roundup of events in the Middle Eastern Region with a concentration on what took place that really mattered. They were short and to the point.

So, here we go again.

Turkey: Well, bad news for the new Sultan. It appears NATO has sent him a very clear message that any offensive action by Turkey into Syria will not invoke the special agreements of the NATO pack. To be honest, I’m not sure that answer was not exactly what he was looking for!   The Ottoman bottom-line has not changed in five years. They will not accept a Kurdistan on their border and the more they resist this process, the more violence will take place inside of Turkey.  The real change has come from the entrance of the Tsar.  If the Kurds can sit inside a protected location and continue events inside of Turkey, this scenario will have to come to a head. Final note on this topic. The Russians have long supported the Kurds, but the moment the Tsar no longer needs them, the second a deal is struck with the Ottoman Sultan, the Kurds will once again be left high and dry!  Betrayal is the mark everyone seems to place on the Kurds.

Saudi: Although the announcement of Northern Thunder was the topic of the week, the conversation over the real center of gravity for the region was held. Oil! Rumors of “agreements” then announcements to the contrary. The Tsar needs oil prices to at least start showing signs of rebounding and so when it was evident that Saudi and a few others were “talking” about freezing production, the Iranians were forced to the table. Well, as soon as the Saudi’s heard the Iranians might go along with frozen production numbers for the rest of 2016, yep, you guessed it, “we are not freezing our production”!  As I write this post, the price has fallen below 30 dollars a barrel once again. Oh by the way, if you think that is great news, then you probably are not aware of what the price of oil is doing to many of the banks in the world. Loans based on profits…read about it…..it’s not the good news many think it to be. Bottom line, the Saudis are stuck in a environment that has very few options and the rumors of Royal Family having internal disputes continue to grow.

Syria:   It’s not the first time in the five year uncivil war…. I don’t believe in the concept of a “Civil War”……there is nothing civil about war…..but, back to my point! It’s not the first time the utterly confusing issue of who is on whose side has popped up. One group is attacking another group… one group is joining an alliance with other groups…. and so on and so on!

Syria….. the modern day version of Mad Max and the Thunder Dome!   To top that off, right in the middle of the display of insanity, we witness, on YouTube of course, the Russians carpet bombing areas held by “ Terrorist…. Allies…..Neutral groups”….take your pick what you call them.  As complex as Syria has become, the real danger no longer extends from the issue of Assad. As I stated under the heading of Turkey, the real threat to the region and Europe revolves around the Kurds!  Yes, the Ottoman Sultan has officially heard from NATO leadership, but, does NATO, Europe / US / stand by and watch if the Tsar and the Sultan really come to blows?  The correct answer is, they can’t. As much as the US administration would love to have it all go away, it’s not going to happen, not any time soon.  Roosevelt was a progressive Liberal and he reluctantly took the US to war.  President Obama is most likely having nightmares of becoming the modern-day Roosevelt. That may sound dramatic, unfortunately it has the chance of being true.  

Weekly conclusion:

Many things are taking place in many parts of the world and most of it centers on the Middle East.  What was once a uncivil war has moved to the gates of a Religious war and even that concern is not the cornerstone of the threat.  An unstable Ottoman and a determined Russian Leader are the ingredients for the real world danger.

NORTHERN THUNDER…… PART THREE.  WHAT WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN?

Although I must admit, I agree with those who say “Northern Thunder will not happen”, I like some, have spent the time to think through what it would take for the event to really take place.

The Alliance:  Alliances are a complex and often delicate version of political theatre, especially in the 21^st century.  Is this 20 nation “Alliance” truly a military commitment to each other?

Well, before everyone runs off with the theory the Arab nations version of a military alliance is suspect, need I remind anyone of the last two great “Alliances”? Desert Storm and the War on Terrorism “Alliance for Afghanistan and Iraq? Take the time to go look at the proportionality of these two “Alliances” and then pass judgement on the Arab’s version.

Okay, driving on!  Do any of these 20 countries, to include Saudi, have an attitude of, “in for a penny….in for pound”?  Those that they are preparing to do battle with absolutely do! All 20 of these countries have military leaders who have some level of doctrinal education and all of them clearly see who is behind the real target they seek! In order to remove the fox, you must get passed the Bear!

In the global game of “bluff”, the world’s most skilled player is the Tsar of Russia and I am convinced every member of this “Alliance” understands that point.

Here is my last comment on the topic of the Northern Thunder “Alliance”.

 It is far easier to verbally commit to an “Alliance” in front of a camera or at a podium, then to truly plunge into a regional war!  Commitment……… a word that has lost it’s meaning in the modern world.

Actions:  So, how does this Northern Thunder Juggernaut actually execute inside of Syria?

Does it start with the common tactic of a preemptive air campaign?

Well, that operation is already underway by both sides in Syria. So, if the target sets suddenly change and the tail flashes on the aircraft involved reflect the Saudis and the Turks, then what?

If anyone has been halfway awake in the past eight months, then they realize what Russian air defense systems have been moved into Syria. Now, what kind of Airpower do the Syrian Rebels have that would force the Russians to move such systems into Syria? If you don’t know the answer to that question, then you probably should stop here and go read something else!  NONE….. The answer is NONE!

Let’s rule out the Turks or the Saudis entering Syrian airspace, airspace covered by S 300 / 400!   Oh… before I forget to say it…………remember…none of the Western military powers are members of Northern Thunder….. they were not invited! 

So, what is the Northern Thunder first step? How does this campaign get started?  The Saudi’s have announced they would waiting for guidance from the US and that is a strange comment given the West / US / was not invited to be members of the force package. If a concept was developed for the employment of this complicated force, then not having a key member in on the planning would be a huge disadvantage. Did Saudi use Peninsula Shield plans? Perhaps, but the changes are immense and actually involve another geographic area of operation. Short answer…there is not a lot in common there.

Would Northern Thunder’s ground movement start from Jordan?  By the way, you can bet that an Iraqi entrance is not on the table. So, does Jordan become the jump off point, meaning they would be the buildup site? “In for a penny….in for a pound”? Just how stable is Jordan? Just what would be the Jordanian people’s reaction to plunging their country into a regional war…. A sectarian war?

Turkey? Does this Juggernaut launch from Turkey? If anyone is unstable enough to say yes, it’s the Ottoman Sultan! The question becomes, what of his military leaders? Do they drive their country into a conflict with the Tsar and the Persians? Does the Sultan dream of forcing NATO to come to his aid? Yep, Turkey is the most dangerous part of this entire scenario!

Even if Turkey was the only workable option for Northern Thunder, here is the next great problem.

Movement:   If Northern Thunder is truly a predatory action for hostilities in Syria, why is it taking place in North Eastern Saudi?  Is it a rear area dry run to work on force integration based on multinational forces? Its location is the real hint that Peninsula Shield was the “base plan”.

If we assume the current exercise area is not the force buildup area, then the next phase of this process would be to physically move to the “real” jump off area!  Rail heads….. Ports…… airfields…. Logistical support such as water……electricity….. the list goes on and on!!!!  Force Generation, as I said the other day, is a very complex concept and when you look at a force of this size…..well… I’m not sure who could pull that one off! 

Here is the other issue that would provide a huge obstacle to a true Northern Thunder event.

Disclosure.  The process of Force Generation on the scale of Northern Thunder creates an intelligence footprint so large that any enemy is completely ready by the time that force is actually operational.  In the months it would take to build this force, the Russians and the Iranians and the Iraqis would have Syria a virtual impenetrable fortress.  Bottom line….. absolutely no element of surprise…… No “Shock and Awe”…to be honest….. the US “ Shock and Awe” was more than anti climatic on all sides.   

So, let me review what the real issues appear to be for Northern Thunder.

1. Resolve of the “ Alliance”!
2. The Actions need to actually execute the campaign.
3. The logistics / movement challenges of being the aggressor in a conflict….remember the defender has the huge……huge advantage.

Can operation Northern Thunder truly be a prelude to an Arab military operation in Syria?

Well, it can be started if the resolve is there on the part of at least one member; hence the concern over the Sultan.

Will it actually be a 20 nation fighting force? I think we all know the answer to that question.    

My last comment on Northern Thunder until I see something of substance taking place.

It was not that long ago, the US and the West was demanding the Arabs “Stand Up” and take care of issues in their own region of world. “ Why are the Arabs doing something………why do we have to always fight for them”?  Yep…we have all heard it!

Now, are we all prepared for the consequences of the Arabs taking issues into their own hands?

Here is the final ultimate question and it will decide the future of the entire region and even Europe.

Who has more resolve… the Russians or the Arabs? 

Wars have a history of starting based upon a blunder……..but those blunders were almost always predicated by a prolonged period of political failures. 

NORTHERN THUNDER……… A TECHNICAL REVIEW.

 Well, I did just what I said I would, I worked up a basic review of what Northern Thunder would require to execute and how complicated the feat would truly be.  The problem is, I never hit “send” on the post!  So, here it goes today.

Let’s start by looking at the numbers released in the statement by Saudi.

350K troops

20K Tanks

2500 Warplanes

460 Helicopters.

Well, to say that would be impressive would be an understatement. Do the numbers seem a little “inflated”?

What government doesn’t “inflate” statements that come out of political leadership’s mouths?

For the sake of argument, an argument that will not be believed for a single minute in Moscow or Tehran, let’s look at what it would take to pull this size of a force together.

Troops: Before troops are prepared to go into operational mode, they need a buildup area; a place to prepare.

The idea that a single location could hold such a force is impossible. Having said that, in reality, the Saudis most likely didn’t intend to imply the entire “Force” would execute out of one military base in Saudi. How many actual, “boots on the ground” members will take part in the exercise, in Saudi? That number is probably not even a 10^th of what was stated. The support of such a force would suck the entire region dry of water, food and fuel and that is just while they are in buildup phase.

20 Thousand Tanks: Wow!! I’m still not sure where that number came from. If we did the math and counted up all the tracked vehicles in all 20 countries taking part in Northern Thunder, it might come up to a number 1/3 of that! Now, the issue of preparing, moving and employing that many “tanks”………..well……. we could go on an on!

2500 Warplanes:  You will fill parking ramps of every airbase in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC as well.  Pilots, and the high-end need of their care, maintaince facilities…the list goes on and on!!!

460 Helicopters: To save time here………..Ditto!!!

Again in the defense of Saudi’s statement, it is very likely the numbers given in the press release are somewhat inflated. It is even more likely the intent was not to state this total package was going to be functional on Saudi land; although there will be some, especially in the region, who think this is true. The fact of the matter is, the concept is what could the 20 nations bring to the planning phase if everything they had was accounted for?

When the Gulf States announced the formation of what many are calling the Arab NATO, the first response from anyone who ever worked military plans was less than supportive.   

“Force on Force” training……. Combined Arms Operations….. Integrated / multinational, logistical support; these are just some of the major issues this announcement encountered.

Could such a monumental task have been accomplished in the 18 months since the announcement? Highly unlikely.

In reality, this process would take years!

Now, did the baseline document of the Peninsula Shield Plan become a great starting point?

Yes.

Does it account for the expedited timeline that would lead to such an announcement?

No.

So, what is Northern Thunder really going to be?

Is it an excuse to assemble a force to react to the events in Syria?

It could be and it would not be the first time that tactic has been used in the region.

Could Northern Thunder be a dry run for the option of going into Syria?

Again, it could be and such an event would be highly sought after by the military leaders taking part in the event.

Force generation! A concept that has had little, practical, real-world exposure in the region, at least at the level a Northern Thunder scenario would require.

At the sake of sounding way too egotistical, given I’ve seen our side mess this process up more than once, taking on such an event such as the described Northern Thunder without the support of the US / West …….well…..that would make the task all the more difficult.

So, if they are attempting to do so, the question may just be, do the Russians believe the US is not really supporting the event?  If you read Sputnik.com… you may get your answer.

So, there you have it. My simple attempt to look at the challenges of such a monumental announcement as Northern Thunder.

And to finish off review of Northern Thunder, here is an interesting thought.

What if the events in Yemen were not just about keeping the Persians from getting a foothold to Saudi’s South? Saudi doesn’t have a NTC, (National Training Center) and they do not execute full scale “War Fighters” for the purpose of Combined Arms Training; other than scripted displays for leadership to watch.  So, what if Yemen was not just a counter to Iran, but a live fire, training area to hone the skills needed two years from the time the Yemen operation started; skills needed to take action in Syria. Just how many “bugs” have the Saudi’s worked out with their involvement in Yemen? How many problems have been addressed; problems that come from working with other nations, other forces? Just my closing thought of the day.

Part Three:

I’ll talk to the issue of what would need to happen to have Northern Thunder really take place.

That’s if I remember to post it tomorrow. J

NORTHERN THUNDER???

Well, talk about polar opposites! Last night was my returning comments on what I always referred to as, “The big picture”.

Tonight, well, it’s back to the days of event based analysis.

If anyone has paid attention in the past two days, they would have noticed a rather dramatic, at least dramatic from the Saudi viewpoint, announcement of the “largest military exercise ever held in the region”!  Well….not exactly accurate, but let’s let that point sit for a few minutes.

Twenty nations taking part in a military exercise in Northeastern Saudi. Sounds dramatic and more than suspect given the timing of events in the region and that is not by accident.

So, what is “Northern Thunder” and how did it seem to come out of nowhere?

Easy, it didn’t!

Northern Thunder………..the artist formally known as Peninsula Shield.

What is “Peninsula Shield” you ask?  Well…go back and read some of my post from about three years ago, or, do what everyone under the age of 40 does……google it!

Is it truly something new?

No.

So, why all the hype?

Again, it’s all about the timing!

What message is Saudi trying to send?

Before that question gets answered and most of the paid talking heads are scrambling to do just that, let’s verify the event is being constructed as a “message”. Hint… don’t buy into the “messaging” analysis too quickly.

Let’s go back and play on of my favorite games. Yep…. “What if”?

What if Northern Thunder is not just Peninsula Shield remade as a threat / message to the Russians and the Iranians and oh yes…… the West?

If you are asking yourself, “what is his point?  What is he suggesting”, here is my answer.

I’m not convinced Northern Thunder is just about messaging.

In short, I’m not so confident, the Saudi’s are bluffing!

Last week’s announcement they were ready to act in Syria was not a kneejerk reaction by what the Russians call the Warrior Wanabe Prince!

Many trends have been visible since the change of leadership in Saudi, well, for those who have been watching.

Look at the trends!

The West / US / has been pulling away from the Gulf States from the beginning of the Arab Spring when President Obama openly supported the Muslim Brotherhood.

For over four years now, the Saudis have been in search of a more secure future, a future not based upon Western support.

Did the US / West get “invited” to take part in Northern Thunder?

No………….. and the backbone of Peninsula Shied was built upon Western / US / military support! Think about it.

The relationship between Saudi and Turkey has been a wavering process thanks to the Ottoman’s support to the Muslim Brotherhood, but then again, the threat of the Persians…..Persians with Russian support, is the glaring object that keeps the Royal family up at night. The Enemy of my Enemy….. is still… my friend…..enemy…..take your pick!

Now….add the Kurdistan issue to the Ottoman’s mix.

Look!

Let’s face some hard facts and then come to back to the issue of Northern Thunder being nothing more than an idle threat.

Up until the devastation of the American Exceptionalism by the current administration, did the Saudis or the Gulf members have the will or capability to go to war on their own?

No!

Do they now?

Do they have a choice?

We need to answer that question before we go any further with the analysis of what this all could lead to.

Tonight, I touched the topic.

Tomorrow I will go into detail as to what would have to happen for the Saudi’s to actually move forward with their threats of intervention in Syria.

Bottom line; do not underestimate what is taking place here.

I can assure you, the Tsar is not!  His eyes are on the Ottoman leader, but he knows his indicators of just how bad this might be also point towards the Saudi capital.

Dangerous times my friends……very dangerous!!

http://www.fpri.org/articles/2014/10/gulf-cooperation-councils-unified-military-command

THE MIDDLE EAST…….WHERE ARE WE NOW…. THE PERFECT STORM?

October of 2014. The last time I placed my thoughts on this blog. Why?  Well, I dedicated my time to several other good friends who had the opportunity to influence readers more than I did.  Vanity is a relative concept when you begin to realize just how important events have become and that is my explanation… at least…..part of it.

I can’t go back and cover what I’ve not posted here since October of 14 and those that incorporated my opinions and predictions….well…..they did the best they could at getting their version of what was taking place out to the world. 

 Did I lose confidence in those that I supported?

 No!

  Yet, the time has come for me to speak freely and that implies not working my words through someone else’s editing.

Have I transitioned from impartial, analytical, to….well……something else?

To some degree………….yes.

Will I still base my theories on impartial review?.............. Yes.

Will I remain “analytical”?........... Yes………..but with a little bit more…let us say…….push!!!

The Perfect Storm?

When I review what I posted over five years ago, dating back to the day the “Arab Spring” began……. The Tunisian Virus…..yes…. I still hold on to that term of reference, it amazes me just how disastrous this journey has become, not just for the Middle East, but for all of us.

Five years ago, some predicted, prophesized, just how dangerous the events in the Middle East could become. Most talked of Civil War for Syria and some spoke to the issue of an eventual “Regional War”.

So, where are we now?

The Perfect Storm is my answer and I know that is ambiguous to say the least, so let me try to explain.

It’s been a year and a half since I last visited this blog site, so, at least for this one posting, let me keep this answer as simplistic as I can.

Why did I pick the title of “Perfect Storm”?

Well, in its most simplistic form, that is exactly what is taking place.

Here are the primary issues wrapped in the ever increasing complexity of the “interconnected world”!

1. A US administration that has not only continued the process of destroying US Exceptionalism, but it now seems driven to increase the pace of that decay.

2. The collapse of the center of gravity for the Russian and Middle Eastern economies…..oil, with the Tsar of Russia convinced the process was deliberately launched by the US and its partner in crime…….. Saudi Araba, with the end state of neutralizing the Russian reasserted viewpoint towards Eastern Europe. Yes, the US administration is far too much an armature hour to pull off such a plan, but never forget the paranoia of the Tsar.   What he perceives is, reality for the Russian government.

3. A NATO member who has left the camp of the Christian West long ago! A nation that is ruled by an egomaniac with an explosive temper and an even more dangerous mouth. A leader who sees himself as the new Ottoman Empire architect. Hint…. This is the most dangerous part of this pending Perfect Storm!

4. A Europe who never really, truly believed in the so called European Union. An E.U. that is now fully aware of the weaponization of “Mass Migration”, under the disguise of humanitarian compassion.

Ok, obviously, the parts of this process are far more complex than what I’ve stated in the last four paragraphs, but the ingredients are there? 

The Storm is not just a potential on some complex computer model.

It’s formed…………it’s real…………….and it’s growing more dangerous by the day.

In the past 48 hrs, the Ottoman madman has once again upped the stakes as the West scrambles to keep the Tsar from losing face yet again.

The Saudi’s have backed themselves into a corner with their statements on intervention and saving face seems to be the primary objective of just about everyone involved.

Again, I hope my friends continue to spread the word on what is really taking place, but the time has come for me to go back to where this journey started…… back to “COLDANSVIEWPOINT”!!

For those in the region that followed me, please let all know…… “I’M BACK”!!!!!!!