AGAIN..... THE ISSUE OF NORTH KOREA AND IRAN????

I came across yet another article on the topic of the relationship between North Korea and Iran and how both of these crises could feed off of each other.

Now, this is probably the fourth of fifth time in the past two years I've addressed this "relationship", but in the past I've concentrated on issue of this "relationship" being deliberate.

In the past, I have addressed the concept of both nations have some level of a working alliance in time of crisis.

Today, I'm going to propose a lesser version of this theory, although I'm still not unconvinced they have a more formal agreement.

Let's assume the Tenets of Warfare have not changed with the events of ether North Korea or Iran.

If you know your "enemy" is distracted or overly concerned at a point in time when you are attempting to stave off an attack or achieve some strategic goal, then logic would dictate this issue should be exploited.

Now, in the past, I've addressed the strategically sensitive issue of the US and it's Allies having to deal with two major events taking place in the world at nearly the same point in time and the "difficulties" that would create.  

Current US doctrine states this is still the required capability of it's forces, but that is not really the issue.

The issue is and would be, are the American people ready for the sacrifices that would have to be made to execute this action?

Since the attack on September 11th 2001, the simple fact of the matter is, the American people, in mass, have forgotten their nation is a protracted conflict; a conflict that is far more complicated than dealing with radical religious zealots who have a death wish!

The family and friends of the members who have paid the price for this conflict feel the pain it has caused with every day of their lives, but the American people have all gone back to watching " Dancing with the Stars" or Duck Dynasty..... and rightfully so given this is what those who paid the price of this conflict fought and are fighting for.

But that is where the problem becomes one that must not be ignored.

Perception:

How often has the concept of "Perception" been discussed in this modern, Social media based world?

As the leadership of Iran and North Korea looking into the crystal ball of "risk".... the risk of pushing their combined Nuclear Weapons programs too far...... what do they see in terms of "resolve"?

Now, what do I mean by "resolve"?

Are these two Enemies of the West judging the "resolve" of their opponents, mainly the US, on what is said by it's politicians or it's Generals?

How do we get into the minds of their decision makers?

How do we do, what we in the West have historically been terrible at, and that  is "reading the intent of our enemies?

Our history shows us we base a huge part of or "intent analysis process" on the visual..... Satellites and other electronic devices. " It doesn't 'appear' they are doing this or doing that'.."!!!!

As the US ratcheted up and then attempted  to ratchet down the war of words this week, what impact did this have on the "intent" process in Iran and North Korea?

Did we make things better or worse???

Do we even know??

If so, how did we base it???

Satellites???

For all of the technological advancements we have made in the past few decades, we have done very little in the field of reading someone's "intent"!!

So, lets go back to the original question.

Does Iran and North Korea think the West, namely the US have the stomach for a war unlike any we have seen since the last Korean war?

Do they believe the West, US, has the willpower to deal with Iran and North Korea at the same time?

I, like the rest, have no way of reading 'intent", but sometimes you have to go with pure "gut feelings" as often our political leaders must do, and this time my gut tells me both these nations are going to push their issues to the brink and it is historically at this "brink" point that tragic often unintended events take place!!!

Perception and intent........... Two words whose meaning holds the fate of yet another terrible conflict.