CORONAVIRUS
WHEN PANIC OVERRULES LOGIC.
It's been a month since I've addressed the issue of this new paranoia in the world. Why a month? Well, two reasons. 1. I've been devoting my spare time to my next book, " The War of the Americas". 2. I've been watching to see just where this new viral event was taking a very connected world. So, today I take a little time off from the book and look at what we know so far about this potential global crisis.
The Panic:
A good friend of mine sent me two disturbing video clips yesterday. One was from Egypt, in a market place full of women. Suddenly there was screaming and most of the women began to walk away in a hurry. When I asked him what I was looking at, he stated, "virus". Well, that only made me ask, "what?" He said it was a video of a market place in Egypt where a dead child was seen, and somehow the people believed it was the "virus". Then, he sent me a clip of a long line of vehicles at night. Again I asked, "what is this?" His explanation; people were leaving Kuwait because it was rumored, keyword, sick Iranians were coming to Kuwait, most likely for medical help. Now, is any of this factual? I have known this guy for a long time and he's a smart individual, but paranoia and rumors are powerful weapons in the Amry of fear. To tell you the truth, the very first thought that came to mind was, " how many other videos are starting to circulate around the globe? We have 3 billion phones out there and just about every one of them has a camera and video. What people see and what they state is the reason for what they see may not be accurate, but to a world that is growing more paranoid by the hour, that is of no consequence. We have the ability to scare ourselves on a massive scale and the fallout of that reality is an issue that has no parameters. Yes, the world is scaring itself, but it may be for good reason, and that reason may not be based on mortality rates, not yet at least.
the Immediate Impact:
Harbors full of freighters that will not dock, cannot dock. It's a mental image that most people don't realize, but when you slow or even stop a percentage of the juggernaut called China's economy, the end result is goods stack up somewhere, and then they simply don't get produced.https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1131071/From-the-News-Desk-How-is-the-coronavirus-affecting-shipping
Yep, you have heard about a global, economic slowdown, and the US markets in the past two days have shown the concept of panic is not just limited to the uneducated. to me, the video clip from Egypt was a metaphor for Wallstreet.
Here is another reality, one that has been talked about since the first discussions on this virus showed up. Governments, a growing number of them, are reluctant, to tell the truth. If you need the latest example, other than China, just take a look at Iran. Tehran knew the virus was inside Iran, but the Mullahs wanted to get their elections out of the way prior to telling their people. End result? Shia travels to holy sites led to people going home to other nations and thus bringing the infection with them. Remember the second video clip I just spoke about? Iran has the highest mortality rate of any other nation, outside of China. Is that bad news for the Iranian people? Just what level of healthcare do you think exist in Iran? Does the leadership in Tehran worry about staying in power, or do they worry about the welfare of the people, the same people the government gunned down just a few months ago?
I bring up the example of Iran for another reason, and it's the one that in the end, may become the most important reason of all. Governments that mislead their people are governments that run the risk of destabilization. China's economic slow down could put millions of people out of work and those people can cause a great deal of trouble. Iran's nonexistent public healthcare network will not come close to controlling this highly contiguous virus. People in Iran already hate the leadership in Tehran and when the families of the military start to fall ill, with nothing be done other than oppressing the news and protest, then Tehran becomes more isolated than at any point in the recent past. Let me keep this simple, so I can drive on. Nations that are unstable, to begin with, are going to fall into a deeper crisis than just the virus. The virus is the tool, but the end result is social unrest. This brings me to the next real topic. Mass Migration!
People are like Cattle:
A crude statement right? " People are like Cattle." Have you ever been near a heard when something spooks them? They start to run and when the rest see them, they all start running. At the end of the day, people are no different. Hurricane Harvey. No gas along any of the major roadways in Texas. why? Rumors.....people got spooked. Cattle!
Okay, if you didn't like my Cattle analogy, you will really be offended by my next topic. Nation's with poor leadership and even poorer health services are going to be prone to stampedes. Iran is prime for a stampede, and to be honest, it's most likely already underway. Just ask the Gulf Nations that have closed their borders to Iranians. Mass migration is a real threat from any pandemic event. The danger is, at the moment, it seems the topic is politically incorrect. Rightfully so, all eyes are on the economic impact as that is what governments worry about first. It's that fear of economic pressure that keeps governments reluctant, to tell the truth. Soon, that reluctance may be based on the fear of stampedes. Iran is the Canary in the cage, but let me address one that should catch the attention of the DC. Mexico!
What is the level of health care in Mexico? If you are asking Mexico City, it's great. If you are asking those who live in Mexico, the answer is a very mixed review. Here is the problem. Pandemics, if this becomes one, are not the atypical event. Distribution of preventive medicine is a very complex process. If you don't believe me, look up the Center for Disease Controls / CDC's Strategic National Stockpile program. I've talked about this before, but the issue of mass migration and infectious breaks outs go hand in hand. So, let me get back to the issue of Mexico. It's one thing to claim you have a great medical system, it's another to deal with a panicked public, a public that already doesn't trust the government at the federal, state or local level. No, I'm not talking about the US. Mexico has a constant flow of people entering the country. Most of these people are traveling to the US. We know the virus has the ability to keep people from showing they are infected for more than a week. We know people can be contagious before anyone knows they have become so. Are you getting the picture here? The US can close travel from nations that are a threat from the virus but don't think for a minute you have negated the threat. How many people entered the US last month, illegally? for the sake of argument, let's pick a number, a number that's really close to the truth. Let's say, 30,000 illegal entries into the US are caught each month. Note: I said, "caught". what is the percentage this is not caught? Where are they from? I've worked the issue of nations that sell, forge, travel documents. Let me give you a slice of reality. The number of nations that the US cannot trust for travel documents, unofficially, is amazing. So, again, who is coming into this country? What are they running from? Let an actual pandemic outbreak start, or even the rumor of such, in Mexico or Central America and the numbers coming towards the border will be unbelievable. Like it or not, people are like cattle.
Last month, I think I mentioned my involvement with the whole CDC/ SNS/process/planning. Let me tell you why this post is written the way it is. Back when the whole world was getting ready for the apocalypse called Y2K, I was on the planning team for the El Paso Texas region. Meeting after meeting, and as I military guy, I knew a thing or two about meetings. When it was nearly all said and done, and we believed we had a plan for that part of the nation, one topic derailed everything. Mexico. The power may stay on in the US, but what about Mexico? Yes, the US had been talking to Mexico City, and you can imagine Mexico's response. The good news was, the area of El Paso didn't care what DC heard or thought. El Paso and Ft. Bliss knew one thing, if the lights went out in Juarez, the cattle would come to El Paso, in a stampede!
Planning for the worst:
Is the world looking at a Pandemic event? Most likely. Will it result in a zombie apocalypse? Well, that depends on how many mutations it goes through. The second year of the Spanish Flu was the real killer. Will the virus crater the global economy? that's seems to be the real threat. Will the virus destabilize nations that are already unstable? That's another real possibility. So, what needs to happen? Last month, I wrote about how people should try to pay attention to the facts; stick with the facts. Here is the problem, and it's a huge one. The WHO and to some extent, the CDC had been taken over by the gravity of this event. Honestly, those of us who have worked the planning side of these events, well, we always anticipated that fact. So, if my advice from last month is now questionable, then what? Is it time to get ready to run with the cattle? Is it time to prepare for the stampede? For individuals, no. For the US government, yes! Just yesterday, I saw the " We hate Trump Team" in congress start a very predictable campaign. " It' Trump's fault". I even predicted this last week on Twitter. @Coldan11. It's absolutely pathetic the world could be facing a real crisis, and all the opposition in DC can do is worry about how to turn the event into poll points. Sickening.
My advice from last month has timed out. Facts are going to get harder and harder to come by. So, instead of looking for verifiable information, do what you legally are allowed to do. Do what you are supposed to do; tell your leadership what you want to be done!
A. Close the borders. I mean really close them. PS. It can be done, but you better find a way before the stampede gets there.
B. Develope an economic model that doesn't depend on a single point of failure. Like what you may ask? Here is an example. just about 95 percent of a surgical mask, you know, the ones you can't find in the stores anymore/ N95s / are made in China. Stupid! "Make America Great Again. Suddenly, it makes a lot of sense right?
C. Be prepared for illrational nations to act illrationaly. Tehran is really, I mean really in trouble. The odds of the Mullahs acting in an aggressive, dangerous manner is extremely high. Make sure your leadership knows this. Make sure they tell you they are ready for nations that might lash out as they lose control of a stampeding public.
D. You may lose confidence in authorities, but that doesn't stop you from having a plan. A plan for you and your loved ones. If the illness spreads, find someone who recovers and that is the person or persons you can rely on to bring you what you might need. If you are isolating yourself and others than that person or persons are your lifeline.
E. The heat of summer and the light of the sun is your friend. Nothing protects us more from germs than the Sun's UV. surfaces in the full sun are a million times safer than items left inside. Let the light set you free!
F. F is for, finally. Read! Read about the Spanish Flu event of 1918. Find knowledge in history. This event may last longer than it's first burnout cycle because that what viruses do.
This virus will cycle. It will burn out and then attempt to make some level of a comeback. It will live in warm, damp places. That's bad news for nations with that climate zone. China is in real trouble. This Virus will mutate. The more people infected, the more options it has to mutate, and the math is amazing. look it up. Virus' don't want to kill their host. It's not good for longterm residency. If it gets worse, it will burn itself up faster. You just have to avoid it while it's doing so. That's the bad news in the good news. But, remember, it can come back. Again, read about the Spanish Flu.
Facts. They are getting harder and harder to come by, and they won't stop the stampedes when they come.
