IRANIAN
GENERALS …WHO IS KILLING THEM?
Rumor has it, yet another Iranian General has been killed in
Syria… another Revolutionary Guard General?
I’ve lost count, but I’m fairly sure this makes eight or
nine in apx the last year!
Now, is that unusual? It depends on whose military we are
talking about.
If any Western military lost more than one general in a
years’ time, the alarm bells would sound as if there was a five alarm fire in
the Pentagon!
So, for that region of the world, is it that unusual?
Yes!
Are there different doctrines on the issue of how involved
General Officers are in an actual combat zone?
Yes!
Is there a difference in the degree of the professional
training of General Officers; in this case, the Iranian General Officer core?
Yes.
Are there difference in the process for protecting General
Officers?
Yes!
So is the concept of a much higher number of General
Officers being killed in the Syrian conflict really that unusual?
Yes!
So, let’s dig into what is really going on.
Protecting
the Leader:
When it comes to be actually up in the combat, contact zone,
Iranian Generals are much more “hands-on” than Western
Doctrine allows.
The problem is, the Iranian’s know this and should be taking
very definitive “measures” to counter the threat of their leaders being that
“engaged”. What we in the West referred to as “PSD Operations”…. Personal
Security Details…. A very highly structured process that is reviewed around the
clock 365 days out of the year.
If we assume, dangerous I know, the Iranians have taken
“measures” to counter the issue of their key leaders operating in high threat
areas, then it’s very obvious whatever “measures” they have taken are not
working!
After the first GO killed, those assigned to protect them
went under the Iranian “looking glass”.
After the 2nd death, that person was most likely
replaced.
After the 3rd, that who planning team was
“removed”.
After the 4th, 5th, 6th…..
well… Panic…. Panic on the part of those who are being held responsible and
panic on the part of those Generals who are being sent to replace the ones
being killed. For those that know their
history, they may have had images of Stalingrad!
So, so far we know two parts of the puzzle.
1.
Iranian Leadership is being very effectively targeted.
2.
The Iranian process for countering what is taking place
is not working.
Identifying the Enemy:
Who is killing the key Iranian leaders in Syria?
The I.S. Rebels or other factions like them?
Are they that good?
Are they able to identify “Patterns of Life” so well they
can continue to reach their target?
Just what level of intelligence would that require?
Are they being killed all in the same fashion? Car bombs?
If we assume the drastic measures the Iranians should be
taking to prevent losing their General Officers, then how is the level of
intelligence being acquired?
Is it beyond the capabilities of the I.S Rebels and those
like them?
If so, then the next question becomes even more tantalizing.
Who next on the suspect list?
The Russians?
Ah… now there is one that is really juicy and here is why.
Everyone who has been following the real details of the
regional conflict understands the events in Syria are far more complex than
just the Rebels and a sectarian civil war. It’s about global power and the Tsar
playing chess with the West over the future of Europe as well as the control of
regional oil.
Most also realize the “Vision” of the Russians is NOT the
“Vision” of the Persians!
Who is really calling the “shots” in Syria and who resents
what is being dictated?
Interesting if you look at who has died in Syria since the
Russians decided to make that conflict part of their Chess game….. hint… that
“play” started long before the arrival of Russian Jets in Syria.
Do the Russians have the ability to execute, play on words
there, such a campaign as killing key Iranian Generals, no matter what
protective measures the Iranian’s take?
Yes!
So, are they the primary, “suspect”?
Perhaps!
Is there anyone else?
The US or the West?
Laughable given this administration can’t find its way out
of the room of international politics, much less pull off a sophisticated
campaign like the one we are talking about. Drones… that is the weapon of
choice with the US administration and that process has a footprint that would
lead right back to the White House….Just ask anyone in Pakistan.
Anyone else?
Um…………………….. MOSSAD? ….did I say that?
Who works for whom over in land of lawlessness…. Who will do
what for the sake of money? How do you create an action without anyone knowing
who really put the action in motion?
Next topic!
Failure to adapt and why:
Anyone with a tactical background looks at this issue and
tilts their head like a dog and high pitched sound!
How in the world does this continue?
After thinking about this for the past few months, I’ve come
to one conclusion that is worthy of putting on paper.
At the beginning of this post, I stated the degree of
professional development between the West and countries like Iran’s military is
sharp contrast at almost every level.
Five years ago, the Syrian Military was unleashed on its own
people, long before I.S and other well
trained, dedicated “Rebels” came onto the scene. For nearly the first year, the
defection level of key Syrian military leaders, at all ranks, but especially at
the Combat Leadership level, was telling.
The process of turning one’s own military on its own civilian population
is a recipe for social destruction. Short answer here….. Brain drain!
As the fight turned into an armed struggle and the
resistance became aggressive and organized, the relentless engagement of the
Syrian military became a huge factor. In fact, if you search this site, you
will see I addressed this issue over four years ago.
As the Syrian military began to fail, the realization inside
the leadership of Iran was simple, they were going to lose control over Syria.
Syria had lost control over Lebanon in 2005 and now the Iranians were going to
lose control to Syria. Their overwhelming fear of a Sunni driven “Arab Spring”, yes they blamed
the Saudis and the West for the Arab Spring, was their number one fear….. a
movement that would lead to the downfall of the Iranian government. For that
reason alone, they could not allow Syria to fall into the hands of the Sunni
Rebels.
Now, it was going to be too complex, at that moment in time,
to simply drive the Iranian military into Syria, so the decision was made to
use the next best thing, Hezbollah. A
fighting force that was expected to easily be able to defeat the ragtag Rebels
and quickly bring order to the Syrian countryside. Well, it didn’t work! The Rebels proved to be far more committed
and ruthless than Hezbollah had banked on.
Remember, Hezbollah was designed to do battle against a very scripted
and rules based IDF. When it came time
for Hezbollah to go door to door with an enemy that was as determined as the
Rebels, a group that had no “rules”, well, Hezbollah met it’s match. You
see……..Hezbollah had spent far too much time marching in parades with their
yellow flags, boasting of their great victory in 2006,2008 against the IDF.. a
victory in their own minds! They were
simply not prepared for a dealing with a
well-armed, very determined group of experienced killers. Yep.
They were outmatched.
Meanwhile, back in the HQ of the Iranian leadership, even
more panic was setting in. Not only had the highly coveted Syrian military been
neutralized, but the “secret proxy weapon of the Iranian nation, Hezbollah was
on its knees, doing little more than holding ground on the Lebanese border.
Panic! That was the end result!
Then…………..the phone rang!
It was the Tsar! “What are you
doing? How could you screw this up? Come to my office immediately and we shall
talk this over”! So off went Soleimani,
who by the way, also believed the battle for Syria was being lost. Lost even though
the Iranians had countered by forcing Saudi to deal with Yemen….even though
Iran Republican Guard Units, who were not officially in Syria, were already trying to hold onto Damascus. Hat in hand, the great Soleimani was
dispatched to the Borg Spaceship…..Moscow!
Here is what the Russians and the West knew have always
known. The Syrian Military and the Iranian Military were all about parades and
shiny new vehicles! All about holding
scripted “Exercises” that would demonstrate the prowess of their fearless
armies….ready to strike a mortal blow to their enemies! Driving past their leaders and giving over
exaggerated salutes! There was and is no, JRTC, / Joint Readiness Training
Center, NTC/ National Training Center….no unit level evaluation process where
true combat skills were trained and documented by truly professional
instructors that helped professional Commanders at all levels of command
understand the real capabilities of their units. The truth was and in Iran case is,
undeniable. Their militaries are Paper
Tigers! Failure was the outcome from day one of the Syrian revolt! Hezbollah
was the only true combat proven option for ether nation and that configuration
was not designed to fight the battle that was taking place in Syria.
So, the Iranian and Syrian military operations in Syria was
fired! Fired by the one person who had the power to fire them without an open
revolt…………….The Tsar!
Now, the Tsar needed the Iranian and Syrian military to
continue being involved, at least on the surface. He had studied the mistakes of Afghanistan
and knew his status would be impacted greatly, especially in Europe, his real
area of concern, if he just marched the Russian military into Syria. Yep, he needed the parade armies, but he
would not count on them again.
As Soleimani left his meeting, he had to feel defeated. He
was one of the few Warriors of the Iranian military. He was the Commander of
the only slice of the Iranian military that had any real sustained combat
capability. He was one of the heroes of the Iran/ Iraq war. He knew he had just
taken a knee in front of the Russians for the sake of saving Persian homeland.
He would not see his land fall to the Arabs, but he would see the Russian Flag
atop the political pole and the dreams of the next Persian Empire slip back
into being just that, a dream! The Arab “Rebels” had shown the world what the
West already knew; the great Persian military was not capable of defending the
future of Iran!
When this message was spoken to the Iran Leadership, it had
to have been more than a shock! Had they thought their great military leader
would return from Moscow with the message the Persians would “rule the day”?
Did they truly not understand this was not just about them? Did they not
anticipate the Tsars grand plan? Was he
simply going to save Syria for Iran’s sake?
Anger! Anger is what the reaction had to have been and with
the anger came the guidance.
“General…..We will not allow the Russians to dictate the
future of Syria. We will not sit back and watch the West negotiate with the
Russians on the terms of Assad’s future!
We demand results and you will get results! If your forces are not
getting the job done, then send more of them. If they need leadership, then
send it! We demand results from our illustrious Elite Guard”!
So, the Generals go parading in, trying to do what any true
leader should do; motivated a demoralized force. Think about it! A Syrian
military member has witnessed his own military be torn to shreds by the Zombie
Rebels…..then he witnesses the glorious arrival of the Yellow Flags of
Hezbollah…..the “real Warriors”…. Only to see them knocked to their
knees…..then the true saviors show up on the battlefield…. The Iranian
Revolutionary Guard! Just when the Syrian military thinks all is lost, hope
returns. Then, something strange begins to happen. A number of key IRGC Commanders began to be killed, and
it continues, no matter what actions are taken.
Soon, the unthinkable takes place and panic, true panic sets in not just
for what is left of the Syrian Military, but more importantly for the Iranian
military. The Undefeatable / the modern-day version of the “Immortals” of the
Persian Army are stopped in their tracks!
Soon, rumors of Damascus pending fall shakes what is left of the Syrian
nation…..even Assad himself begins to panic.
All is now truly lost ! And
just when it seemed it was time walk away from the battlefield and start
walking to Europe, enter the Russians!
The course of the conflict changed with the landing of the
first Russian fighter Squadron. It not only changed for the members of the
Syrian military who now, after five years of combat, were proven fighters;
those that live…..get better….but it changed for the Iranians as well.
The edict from the religious leadership, the leadership
Soleimani was deeply loyal to, had not changed. “ Iran must be in control of
events in Syria”!
The Russians were now the heroes of the Syrian Military and
being near a Russian unit most likely meant nobody was going to get to you, at
least not right then.
The IRGC was in a position they had never seen before, they
were not the Heroes! They had been the driving force behind the Shia militia
groups who fought the West in Iraq. They had been the trainers of the Yellow
Flag Warriors! But now, now they were
second fiddle to “real” military on the ground…….The Russians!
What was the end result for the Iranians? What did it all
mean to the IRGC and their leader, Soleimani? I tell you what it meant…. The
Generals continued to die! As a matter of history, the pace they were killed
actually increased! What was the answer? How was Soleimani going to answer the
demands of his leadership? Well, he did
what any true Leader would do, he took himself to the front! His Commanders
knew the true tactical skills of their troops and they understood the only way
to keep them moving forward or even holding on was to “lead” and lead from the
front! That is why they became such easy targets. They risked everything to
keep their forces relevant. In the pending reality of defeat, what Commander
would not disobey procedures designed to keep them as individuals safe? No real
leader would stay in the rear. This is a situation Western Commanders have not
faced since in over 60 years…complete sacrifice!
In the end, Soleimani did what his dead Generals had done,
he went forward. Forward into a battle zone where no real lines exist. Who is
the person next to you? Is he really loyal to the same side you are on and how
do you really know. Syria is not a typical conflict and the ability to “secure
the rear” is nearly impossible. Securing “forward” areas, whatever that may be
in Syria, is not even describable.
Then it happened! The Iranian version of Paton was struck on
the battlefield. Yes, even Soleimani’ s protective team could not keep him
safe! Rumors flew! He was dead.. he was critically injured and flown back to
Iran! To the Russian troops and the
Syrian units working under them, this most likely meant nothing. “ Who needs
the Persian Hero, we have the Russians with us now”? How could a combat
veteran, Syrian fighter think anything different?
Meanwhile, in the capital of Iran, the news must have hit
like a earthquake! Why can the radical Islamic Leadership in Iran stay in
power? What is the key to their survival amongst their own people? The
IRGC….that is the key! Without the IRGC,
the threat to the overall survival of the zealots would grow exponentially and
they knew it….now it!
He came home, badly wounded and in the eyes of his leaders,
a failure! Could they punish him?
Could they chastise him? Could they even think of removing him from his
position of power?
NO! Not even a second thought would have been given to
something that outrageous. He was and is a true Iranian Hero and even more so
after once again being wounded in battle!
All was lost from the Iranian leadership viewpoint. An incompetent
military was placed on the battlefield with the typical “limitations” political
leaders place on their militaries. “Fight…but fight with unmanageable
limitations and end the fight with victory”! These are the guidelines of old
men who do not travel to the battlefields and smell the Sulphur coming from
pools of warm blood!
What does it all mean:
The Syrian conflict was exploited in Iran’s desperate
struggle to contain the “Arab Spring”; and the attempt to keep if from reigniting
the fires that almost toppled Iranian leadership in 2009.
The Syrian conflict exposed the flaw in modern day, kinetic energy,
conventional militaries; the inability to deal with insurrections fueled by
weaponized social media. A problem compounded by leadership that is tyrannical
and desperate, in charge of militaries that parade more than they train.
Militaries that buy “toys” for the purpose of those parades.
The Syrian conflict quickly turned into a struggle between
world powers, one willing to step away from the responsibility of leadership
and one ready to regain its status.
The Syrian conflict became a struggle between regional
rivals who came to the realization the West
was no longer interested in keeping peace in a region of the world the West had completely misaligned at the end of WWI. Their “mess” was
no longer their mess to fix!
Today, some bastardized version of a temporary ceasefire is
taking place in Syria. A product of desperate Western leadership wishing the
whole event would go away and A Russian leader who continues to play Chess
making up his own rules as he goes.
Who is killing the Iranian Generals in Syria?
Remember. It’s not who pulls the trigger, but who does it benefit?
I think we have our answer.
