Wednesday, November 2, 2016
THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD’S CORP COMING TO THE US AND EUROPE?
Just when I thought I might follow up for a third night on
the issue of the Turks and Iraq, this story of the IRGC forces “coming to the
US and Europe soon” ends up on the front page of a major US news network. Ok, I’ll
bite. Let’s take a look at this rather bazar statement?
Salar Abnoush? Who is he you might ask? Well, he’s a low
level flunky to start with. So, why would he be tasked with sending such a
critical message to the US and Europe? Was he just shooting his mouth off in a typical,
“look at me” moment? It could be, but that would be a dangerous concept in a
country where unofficial statements can be your last statement! Should we assume he was “cleared” to make
this comment? Most likely! Once we get past that decision point, the next
question becomes the more important topic.
Why and why now and why him of all people?
Okay. Why?
Why would the Iranian leadership make such a bold and let’s
face it, stupid comment one week before the US Presidential election? If the
Persians were looking for reaction, what reaction where they looking for? What
was the desired result of the comment? Could it be the intended audience was
not the political leadership of the US and Europe? Perhaps the saber raddling
was for internal reasons? It would not be the first time the Iranian leadership
took that approach. Could it be they really didn’t anticipate the statement
would make it to the Western press, or perhaps they just didn’t care? If this
was once again an “internal” issue and Iranian leadership is just so confident
that the US and Europe will not overreact to the statement, then it’s not
really reckless. Is Iran that confident the US and Europe is so lethargic towards
Iran that they will not even recognize the event? Now, that is a real possibility,
but let’s continue to dig a little further.
Why now?
Rumors of the ongoing power struggle inside Iran between the
so called “moderates” and the “hardliners”, two titles I’ve addressed in the
past, are out there for everyone to read about. Was this just a shot by the “hardliners”
to show their resolve for the “revolution”? Again, it would fit the mold of
them believing the US and Europe will simply look the other way. In the eyes of
aggressive Tyrants, Passive Liberals are like Sheep simply hoping the Wolves
will not come tonight. Ignore the
statement and it will go away! A mindset that is defended by the viewpoint of, “we
don’t want to overreact”.
On the other hand, is Iran actually sending a message to the
US and Europe, but doing so with some midlevel ladder climber who is more than
willing to have his fifteen minutes of fame. If it goes bad, and someone
actually gets upset with the statement, doubtful, then getting on the phone and
saying, “we had a wannabe step out of line…..we will deal with him”, becomes an
easy exit. Remember, the US and Europe want to be friends with Iran so bad they
can taste it. “It was a mistake”, is the perfect way to allow the progressive
liberals of the US and Europe show their hardliners, it was all simply an
accident, stop saber raddling.
Woops! None of this really answers the “why now”! Sorry, I got
sidetracked. The part of the “why now” that would have anyone who watches the
region confused goes back to the issue of the pending US election. Who is the
real “Hawk”? Who is the one that seems to pose the biggest threat to Iranian
actions in the region? Hillary! The same Hillary that is, in the eyes of the
Persians, friends with Saudi! How would making a “we are coming to the US and
Europe” threat impact Hillary Clinton’s campaign? What is the point? Are the
Iranians anticipating the relationship with a President Clinton to be a step
backwards from the Obama administration? If so, how does this aggressive
statement move the cause for Iran forward? I don’t believe it does and that is
why I’m leaning away from the idea that event was designed to influence the US
elections. Does the statement do any good for Donald Trump? Do the Iranians see
a better day over the horizon with Trump? I don’t think so. So, does this event
impact the Trump campaign? We will see if his people even mention it. So, in the world of “why now”, the answer may
very well be, “why not”?
Why Salar?
I think we have hit on the two possibilities on this topic.
He was ether trying to make a name for himself, something many of the military
leaders in Iran have attempted in the past, or he was the message boy for a
bigger game. A game that may not be about the US and Europe at all.
Okay; here is my closing thoughts on this event. The internal power plays taking place inside Iran
right now are far more controversial than the Western media contemplates. The
ability for the Iranian Hawks to make outrageous statements and have the confidence
the US and Europe will do nothing about it, well, that is where I would place
my bet.
Here is the sad part of this story. Does anyone in the US or
Europe understand how unintimidated the Iranian leadership is with the current
US and European governments? Can you imagine if Salar would have tossed into
his statement, “and in Russia as well”?
By the time the Iranian Hawks would have been able to arrange for him to
be a “causality” in the Syrian conflict, the Tsar would be
killing the next Iranian General in Syria. How many Iranian Generals have died
in Syria and who got to them? I bet the Iranians know!
Respect. When it comes to that word the Tsar is only Aretha Franklin
the Iranians know.
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