MOSCOW TO HEZBOLLAH, “PLATA O PLOMO”?

So, the Russians are reopening language schools in Lebanon? Russian “Cultural Centers, spy hangouts, are coming back as well. I’m sure this concept was run past Tehran for their support😊. So, here is my question. What does Hezbollah think of this? Do they run the country? Yes. Do they work for the Mullahs in Tehran? Yes. Do the Mullahs like the idea of Moscow moving into Lebanon? No. Are they going to say anything about it? Not out in the open they won’t. Is Moscow/ Putin / out to take control of Hezbollah? My bet is yes. Is Moscow out to gain control of the IRGC/ Qud Force? Again, my bet is they are. Why? Because the Mullahs have been too resistant to the wishes of Moscow and Iran is a mess. What better way to wipe the slate clean and still control the future of Iran than to control their thugs? The Iranian economy is in a freefall and no one is going to save it. From Moscow’s viewpoint, why not sit back, let the nation fall apart and then inject the leadership you own? How does Moscow pull this off? Easy, it all comes down to who pays the bills.  Young fighters in Hezbollah’s ranks don’t care about who is power back in Tehran. What they want is to get paid and to get paid on time. If the fighters are not being paid or paid on time, and then the Russians tell someone like Soleimani not only will bills be paid, but the level of support will go up, then what? Loyalty does feed the family back in Lebanon. The Persians have been sending the Arab Hezbollah members into the meatgrinder of Syria for several years, while the Persian troops sit back in airconditioned offices and play, “Advisor” …. A role no one really believes.

The New Alignment:

            If the Russian truly want to control what takes place in the region, then they have to control the major Thugs in the region and that’s Hezbollah and the Qud Forces. If Moscow wants the Mullahs to be doomed, then news flash….they are doomed and nobody tosses them a life vest….you know….that sinking ship I wrote about yesterday. With Hezbollah truly under Russian control then even if the Qud / IRGC / didn’t agree with the fact, there is little they could do about it. Hezbollah gets a paycheck from Moscow and the IRGC / Qud waits for bouncing checks from Tehran.

            Now, making all of this happen based on just the issue of money is just not the Russian way. You have to have a little hint of what bad things might happen to you if you don’t go along with the “offer”…..you know…… Plata 0 Plomo!  A few Russian “Centers / Schools” open up in Lebanon and the next thing you know, you get a text picture of your Mother or Wife walking down the streets in the Beqaa or Beirut with Two very large white guys just behind them. You get the picture. When you make “deals” with the Russians, you are handed a whole new playbook.

            Yes, things are changing in the region. Yes, the US and Russia may or may not come to an “agreement” on how the region operates, but one thing is a given. The relevancy of the Mullahs has run it’s course. Russia’s “plans” for their involvement in the region is based on control of oil and gas. Allowing the Iranians to resist Russia’s will by using their proxy Thugs is just not going to work. For Hezbollah, the message is clear. Go home and look who is walking the streets of your neighborhood. For Soleimani and the IRGC / Qud, you may hear the words Plata O Plomo again, but this time, they may be directed at you. Good Luck!