DID ISRAEL’S LIMITED RESPONSE IN GAZA JUST SEAL THE FATE OF TEHRAN?

Perception is the key to just about anything that takes place in the world nowadays and the perception, as of this morning, was Hamas had once again made Israel and the IDF look foolish. Over 200 projectiles were fired into Israel in a 24 hour period and that was after weeks of violence along the border. Once again, Israel called yet another emergency cabinet meeting to determine what should be done. As this latest round of “meetings” was taking place, Hamas was continually sending Israeli citizens to the bomb shelters, screaming with terror all the way. Yes, Israel responded with a large scale air campaign and targets all over Gaza were struck,but, we all know how these air missions are perceived, even Israel’s own people have the same perception. Israel is attacked and they respond by bombing old buildings and facilities that have been evacuated hours prior to the attacks. Then the argument begins again over the issue of prior notification. Yes, the “ No Knock” topic comes back to the table. In order to limit the civilian casualties, someone continues to support the process of Israel telling what they may strike. The argument is always the same. How can you truly impact your enemy if you tell them you are coming and where you are going? Does Hamas or other groups that attack Israel gives such a warning?

            Okay. On face value, yesterday’s response to Hamas’ latest round of attacks on Israel was a perception management disaster. The question being asked, even as I write this post, is this. “why”? Why was the IDF not sent into Gaza? How is it that Israel now faces yet another failure in response? What could have convinced the leadership of Israel to limit their actions? I’ve heard one theory that I find utterly ludicrous. “ The IDF is not capable of taking on the issue of Gaza and Hezbollah / Iran in the North”. If you believe that, then you are clueless as to the capabilities of Israel. Another theory floating out there is based on Israel being asked to not take any action that might upset / derail / the Trump Peace Plan. What Peace Plan? What does it say? Where is it? How can you look your own people in the face, as they huddle in a bomb shelter, and say, “we don’t want to upset yet another US pipedream”? Nothing I’ve heard so far answer the question, why? So, given no one seems to have a valid answer, let me give you one, one I believe has far more validity than anything I’ve heard today.

Iran.

            Yes, Iran. Iran is the reason the IDF didn’t enter Gaza yesterday and Iran is the reason the IDF will not enter Gaza until the price for not doing so is so high they must go in. Now, you get to ask me the same question you asked everyone else. Why? Why would Iran stop the IDF from crushing Hamas? All right. Here is my answer and it’s a good one!

            Two days ago, when Hamas was in the midst of pushing Israel to It’s limits, I made the comment that Hamas must have gotten its marching orders from Tehran. Within 24 hrs, the talk went from an Egyptian brokered Cease Fire, to Hamas attacking Israel on a scale not seen in several years. Why would Tehran put  a stop to the Cease Fire “deal”? Simple. Because the Mullahs needed and still need a huge distraction in the region. If you’ve been paying attention for the past week, the protest in Iran are creeping near the 2009 levels. This time around, it might actually be worse. This time around it’s not just the college kids who are upset, its nearly every hard-working person in Iran. The economy is in shambles and their currency will hardly buy one meal. The Iranian people are quickly becoming so poor, they can’t even pay attention. All of this going on while BILLIONS of dollars, dollars Obama sent them, have gone “missing”. Yes. Iran is truly in a crisis of governance, perhaps the worst crisis since the so called, “Revolution”.  The old men in Tehran needed an event that would take the world’s attention away, and event that would suck the air out of the social media sites. They needed an event that would have the world look the other way while they crushed those who dared ask for a better life. So, Hamas, who owes Iran for providing them with their stockpiles of weapons in Gaza is ordered to attack Israel and attack Israel harder than they have in years. This would give Tehran what they were looking for, or so they thought!

The Bait didn’t work.  

            Who has better intelligence on Iran’s status than Israel? Who can send a team into Iran and steal their entire nuclear weapons program? Who knows the true weaknesses of the Mullahs? Does anyone, including Tehran, really think for a second Israel could not recognize this ploy? Can you imagine the conversation when the old men were informed the IDF was not going to enter Gaza? If you are sitting there wondering why Israel would do such a thing, go back to my question above. Who knows Iran better than Israel? Does anyone think Israel couldn’t see the real advantage they had? If Tehran was so desperate to force Hamas into a suicide mission, then just how worried are they about their own survival? What happens if the great distraction doesn’t take place? Then what? You see, Israel understood where they could inflict the most damage and how. By not turning Gaza into a battlefield, the pressure inside Iran would continue. No distraction would mean, no relief. Again, who would know better than Israel just how bad off Iran’s current leadership truly is? If Israel doesn’t go into Gaza, then the odds of the old men in Tehran being tossed from power goes up how much? Yes. Israel has once again outsmarted the Mullahs. There will be no distraction. There will be no relief, at least not from this event and that makes my last statement even more important. This current attempt to distract the world from Iran’s troubles didn’t work, but that was only this attempt. If the actions of Hamas were not enough, then what is the next level Tehran can come up with? Just how desperate are the Mullahs? Yes, I believe Israel figured out this plan and simply didn’t take the bait. Better than that, they have most likely made things worse for Tehran, but the Mullahs are quickly reaching a point of no return. Whatever you believe is too outrageous for them to attempt, you need to be prepared for just such an event to take place. This round went to Israel. The round before this one, the firing on the two oil tankers, didn’t work as well. Tehran is going to have to up their game and something tells me they will do just that. Meanwhile, social media provides the play by play of the protest in Iran. Yes, the people of Iran want what everyone else in the world wants. They want to feel safe and they want to know they have a future. As desperate as the Mullahs are becoming, I’m not sure Tehran won’t destroy that dream for every Iranian. Social Rights Activist in Iran. Keep up the outstanding work. I read everything you post, every day. Those of you that take to the streets of Iran, you are changing not only your future, you’re changing the future of the Middle East. More to follow.