NORTHERN THUNDER……… A TECHNICAL REVIEW.

 Well, I did just what I said I would, I worked up a basic review of what Northern Thunder would require to execute and how complicated the feat would truly be.  The problem is, I never hit “send” on the post!  So, here it goes today.

Let’s start by looking at the numbers released in the statement by Saudi.

350K troops

20K Tanks

2500 Warplanes

460 Helicopters.

Well, to say that would be impressive would be an understatement. Do the numbers seem a little “inflated”?

What government doesn’t “inflate” statements that come out of political leadership’s mouths?

For the sake of argument, an argument that will not be believed for a single minute in Moscow or Tehran, let’s look at what it would take to pull this size of a force together.

Troops: Before troops are prepared to go into operational mode, they need a buildup area; a place to prepare.

The idea that a single location could hold such a force is impossible. Having said that, in reality, the Saudis most likely didn’t intend to imply the entire “Force” would execute out of one military base in Saudi. How many actual, “boots on the ground” members will take part in the exercise, in Saudi? That number is probably not even a 10^th of what was stated. The support of such a force would suck the entire region dry of water, food and fuel and that is just while they are in buildup phase.

20 Thousand Tanks: Wow!! I’m still not sure where that number came from. If we did the math and counted up all the tracked vehicles in all 20 countries taking part in Northern Thunder, it might come up to a number 1/3 of that! Now, the issue of preparing, moving and employing that many “tanks”………..well……. we could go on an on!

2500 Warplanes:  You will fill parking ramps of every airbase in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the GCC as well.  Pilots, and the high-end need of their care, maintaince facilities…the list goes on and on!!!

460 Helicopters: To save time here………..Ditto!!!

Again in the defense of Saudi’s statement, it is very likely the numbers given in the press release are somewhat inflated. It is even more likely the intent was not to state this total package was going to be functional on Saudi land; although there will be some, especially in the region, who think this is true. The fact of the matter is, the concept is what could the 20 nations bring to the planning phase if everything they had was accounted for?

When the Gulf States announced the formation of what many are calling the Arab NATO, the first response from anyone who ever worked military plans was less than supportive.   

“Force on Force” training……. Combined Arms Operations….. Integrated / multinational, logistical support; these are just some of the major issues this announcement encountered.

Could such a monumental task have been accomplished in the 18 months since the announcement? Highly unlikely.

In reality, this process would take years!

Now, did the baseline document of the Peninsula Shield Plan become a great starting point?

Yes.

Does it account for the expedited timeline that would lead to such an announcement?

No.

So, what is Northern Thunder really going to be?

Is it an excuse to assemble a force to react to the events in Syria?

It could be and it would not be the first time that tactic has been used in the region.

Could Northern Thunder be a dry run for the option of going into Syria?

Again, it could be and such an event would be highly sought after by the military leaders taking part in the event.

Force generation! A concept that has had little, practical, real-world exposure in the region, at least at the level a Northern Thunder scenario would require.

At the sake of sounding way too egotistical, given I’ve seen our side mess this process up more than once, taking on such an event such as the described Northern Thunder without the support of the US / West …….well…..that would make the task all the more difficult.

So, if they are attempting to do so, the question may just be, do the Russians believe the US is not really supporting the event?  If you read Sputnik.com… you may get your answer.

So, there you have it. My simple attempt to look at the challenges of such a monumental announcement as Northern Thunder.

And to finish off review of Northern Thunder, here is an interesting thought.

What if the events in Yemen were not just about keeping the Persians from getting a foothold to Saudi’s South? Saudi doesn’t have a NTC, (National Training Center) and they do not execute full scale “War Fighters” for the purpose of Combined Arms Training; other than scripted displays for leadership to watch.  So, what if Yemen was not just a counter to Iran, but a live fire, training area to hone the skills needed two years from the time the Yemen operation started; skills needed to take action in Syria. Just how many “bugs” have the Saudi’s worked out with their involvement in Yemen? How many problems have been addressed; problems that come from working with other nations, other forces? Just my closing thought of the day.

Part Three:

I’ll talk to the issue of what would need to happen to have Northern Thunder really take place.

That’s if I remember to post it tomorrow. J