THE CLIMATE IN MEXICO.
WHAT DOES THE "MIDDLE CLASS" THINK?
Here is my issue with the whole topic of surveys. Find me one that is not, at its core, based on bias. Corporations have made the survey issue into an industry, all the while convincing people they are too stupid to conduct a "proper" survey. Yep, the survey world is an industry and one the politicians spend BILLIONS on. Universities design entire departments around the art of surveys in the hopes of landing those huge, political bank accounts. So, here is my question. Are surveys really that hard to do? With a little bit of effort and background, can't the "simple person" conduct a somewhat accurate survey? The answer is yes, and that answer creates the sound of fingernails on chalkboards to those who make a living with surveys. If that sound is not bad enough for the survey experts, the public perception that surveys are mostly worthless, well, that's heresy! My experience with the concept of surveys? As a Commander, I utilized surveys for decades. Did I have variables that made the briefing process look like some physics formula? No. KISS. Keep it Simple Stupid; that was my formula. How effective was my formula? Sixteen consecutive years in command and not one Inspector General/ IG compliant. Find me a commander that did the commander tour as long as that who can make that claim. Surveys. KISS. That's the key, but it's not how an industry of politicians think and worse, they don't care.
My "Survey":
Okay, first off, a big shoutout to the person who helped me pull this data together. Claudia! If you want to follow a smart person on the topic of Mexico, follow @mexmama71. What data you may ask? Well, I will tell you, but the title of this post should have given that answer away. What do the people who really hold Mexico together think? Who might that be? Again, look at the title of the post. Does the Middle Class of the US hold the nation together? You bet it does. As a matter of fact, the "Middle Class" of just about every, civilized, modern nation has that class as the glue that binds.
Here is what I set out to do. If you pay attention to the events in Mexico, you typically hear about the terrorist cartels and or the actions of the Mexican government. When you listen to people in Mexico voicing their concerns, it's typically the poor or the kids on campus. Where is the opinion, voice, of those who hold Mexico together? Why is it we never hear from them? Now, once again, "professional surveys" have been conducted, for a price that is. Have any of you read them? Do you think the companies that put them together care if you have or haven't? If you didn't pay for it, they don't give a hoot! Biased? You bet I am. Okay, back on track. The Middle Class of Mexico is just like the Middle Class of the US and many other nations. They are too busy working, paying taxes, and keeping their world stabilized. Do they have time to march up and down the streets, breaking out windows and shaking stupid posters in the air? No. They are the people who get up in the morning, or evening, and keep their nation functioning. What's the saying in the US; "The Silent Majority"? Does that designation belong to the Middle Class? For the most part, yes!
What did I set out to accomplish? Simple, what's the opinion/perception/ of Mexico's Middle Class? With all that is going on, AMLO and his drive towards a new "revolution," the terrorist cartels basically defeating the Mexican government for the control of a city of over 800K people, what do the people who hold it all together think? Folks. That was the goal, and with the help of Claudia, I think we reached a percentage of that Middle Class. Stop, if you come back with, " ya, but was it scientific, just go away. No, really, go away!
Snapshot:
When my units would show up in some far off land, one of the first things I would have my Headquarter's Staff accomplish was an assessment of what those around us, the friendlies, thought of us being there? If you can't trust the "friendlies," then the job of keeping everyone safe is nearly impossible. That assessment process was typically conducted in a verbal format, heresy, I know! Side Note: I use to love when someone from the IC or the DoS would come to us and say, "here is what you can expect from those around you." "Thank you," and in the trash, it went! What I was looking for was a "snapshot." A quick analysis of what we were up against, and I have to tell you, it worked, and it worked far better than documents from DoS contractors or the IC.
My goal was to accomplish a "snapshot" of Mexico's Middle Class, and with the help of Claudia, that goal has been achieved. By the way, the survey is still out there, and feedback is again coming in.
What did it show:
The survey was made up of ten questions; again, the KISS principle applied. I'm not going to list each question verbatim. What I will share with you is the general trends I've taken from the data. Oh, by the way, what was really interesting, was the feedback Claudia provided after she saw the survey results.
Who does the Mexican Middle Class trust?
Over 75% of the people stated they didn't trust any level of government; that includes federal, state, and local. Now, think about that for a minute. You are educated and work hard every day of your life, and when someone asks you do you trust the government, the answer is no! Remember my comment about glue?
Is Mexico getting worse?
67% believe Mexico is getting worse. What is the definition of "worse"? I don't care. Let each person have their own concept of worse. I'm looking for raw feelings.
Considered leaving?
You know how I have banged on the drum of mass migration and the event the US could be facing if things became terrible in Mexico and other nations to the US's south? Well, almost half, 42%, the people who responded stated they had considered leaving Mexico. By it'self, this statement may not excite too many folks, but mix this answer in with the totality of all the feedback, and you may place a much larger value on the question.
AMLO:
Yes, this survey went out to the Middle Class, and that class of people in Mexico are not real supporters of the way left of center President. 92% think AMLO will not make Mexico a better place. If that answer was given in the US, most would just say it's a sign of party politics. That doesn't hold true in Mexico. What 92% indicates is a validation of the first question, who do you trust? The "glue" doesn't trust the President to make things better!
The US is hurting the situation:
The question basically asked, " is the US hurting or helping the current status of Mexico"? The answers shocked Claudia, but she gave a sound reason why it may be true, and I'm not going to share her answer simply because some of you would not understand her analysis. Yep, she's a very educated and smart young lady. 67%. Think about it. 67% of the Middle Class feel the US is hurting Mexico. This is not the folks trying to sneak across the border. These are the people who are staying home trying as hard as they can to make Mexico into the nation they dream of. What do they think the US is doing to hurt Mexico's future? Well, how often have you listened to me rant about the US's approach to the whole region? How often have you heard me say, " the hell with the EU, let's salvage our relationship with the Americas"! The "Glue" of Mexico doesn't see the US helping the situation. Regardless of what you think, that answer has to change!
If you witnessed a crime:
Would the Middle Class of Mexico report a crime if they saw one taking place? The combined answer was yes! Just about 65% said they would, but 42% of that yes vote stated it would depend on if the crime was being committed by someone or group that might come back after them. What do you think that answer indicates? Yep, the terrorist cartels. Take that caveat away, and a little over 20% would be willing to report a crime. 20 % of the Middle Class, not the poor or the rich. In reality, those two group's numbers might be lower.
Protest:
Are the people of Mexico going to indeed protest in the near future, not just the college kids looking for something to do, but the real, taxpayers of Mexico? Anwer? 75% said yes! Stop. Let that answer sink in. What happens to a nation when the " Silent Majority" takes to the streets? Pull up the latest pictures from Lebanon or Iraq. The Middle Class, the taxpaying class; they are heading towards sacrificing their comfort zone.
Culiacan:
A whole bunch of "Experts" have been racing to get on talk shows to tell the world what impact Culiacan had on Mexico and the threats that might impact the US. Did anyone in the US pay attention, or is the soap opera in DC all anyone in the US cares about? This was an answer I was really anticipating. Did Culiacan make Mexico less safe? Almost 80% said yes. As a reminder, that's 80% of the Middle Class, not just the people of Culiacan, but the Middle Class across the country. A city of over 800k was lost to a terrorist cartel, and that shook the Middle Class hard. Again and again, how much confidence can the "glue" loose? At what point does the glue give?
Wrap up:
If at the end of this post, you are one of those that goes back to this issue of," ya, but was it a proper survey," then I have one last response. My format worked for 16 consecutive years without fail! Put up or shut up!
My goal here was simple. What is the status of the Glue? Just what indicators do I look for as I attempt to evaluate the future of Mexico? In DC, it's all about economic indicators. Why, because DC is all about the topic of money. Money is power, and the status of money reveals the status of power/stability. DC. The place where train wrecks are recognized only after the smoke is seen rising into the skyline. Thanks, Claudia. Let's keep pushing. Let's help the glue of Mexico hold the place together.
