COFFEE SHOPS AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS!
WHAT’S THE LINK?
As I was reading the morning news
on events in Iran, I came across this story of yet another raid on Coffee Shops
in Iran. In case you didn’t know it, the government of Iran sees Coffee Shops
as a key element for malcontents and troublemakers within the youth of their
society. Now, here I was looking for general information on one of the more
pressing topics the new US President is going to have to deal with, the Iranian
Nuclear Program “deal”, but what I found was yet another Coffee Shop raid!
So, is there a connection between
Coffee Shop raids in Iran and Trump’s plan for dealing with the Iranian nuclear
deal? Well….yes….. or should I say, there should be. You see, it’s not new
news, I’ve said that before, that two schools of thought continue on the topic
of dealing with Iran. These two “schools” are the same schools that have been
the center of decision making on Iran for over twenty years.
School of thought number One:
Passive support to the youth of
Iran, such as the Green Party, thus setting up an Arab Spring type of event.
The approach is typical of more progressive, passive government and it may have
worked if not for one fatal error. An error committed by the Obama
administration back in 2009. Never passively support a movement, let them know
you “passively” support them and then not show up when it’s game time! That is
exactly what happened to the youth of Iran in 2009 and as a consequence their
leaders were rounded up and locked away. Their weapons program went into high
gear and Iran’s leadership was so paranoid after the events of 2009 when the so
called “Arab Spring” showed up in the region, the Iranians hardliners saw this
as yet another attempt by the West to destabilize Iran. In fact, they became so
convinced the Arab Spring was a Western plot, their commitment to protecting
their government convinced them to go on the offenses throughout the region.
Yep, some of us truly believe the Persian paranoia over the Arab Spring is a key
ingredient as to why the whole region is now in turmoil. They may not watch the
NFL, but they do understand, “A good Defense is best supported by a strong
Offense”.
School of thought number one was a
worthy concept, but the commitment to supporting the plan must be followed through all the way to
the end. Lack a staying power! Ask the Syrian resistance about Obama and this
concept. The problem with Progressive, Passive foreign policy…..you can’t have
that and weak knees at the same time.
School of thought number two:
Stick your finger in your opponent’s
eye and dare him to do something about it! You know, “You are with us or you
are against us”!!!!! Great words at the time, but there was and always is the
category of, “I don’t care and I’m not part of this” Now, before I go any
further, where the Iranians implicated with the actions of OBL and 9-11? Yes!
The statement about the second school of thought is made to simply show a
comparison of how taking a hardline is much different than taking a soft approach
and nothing more. The fact of the matter was and is, many in the West and
particularly the US have an opinion that the hardline is the only line that can
be taking with Iran. The reality is school of thought number two has a risk of
failure! I’ve made this statement before, but here it goes again. A group
inside a nation may not agree with the leadership of that nation, but let
someone from the outside threaten the nation as a whole and the dynamics change
and change quickly. Why do you think a seated government that is in trouble
with its own population will nearly always strive to create an “outside” threat
to the nation? Those kids in the Coffee Shops of Iran would love to be more
Western, but not at the price of being bombed by the Western militaries. They
may not support the “Hardliners”, but they do love their country and the
Western track record of being able to separate the two issues is beyond poor!
Trump and the two schools of
thought:
What does President Elect Trump
do? Can he fined a mix, a hybrid, of the two school of thought? What does he
have his team working on? When you look at his actions and some of the comments
he’s made, it appears he does seem to have a little of both schools in his
approach. You have to ask yourself, “Has that already been tried”? Has a
mixture of the two schools been formulated? If you’ve been reading my post on
Iran for the past few years, you should recall my comments about the West
trying to build an alternative “leader” for Iran. I’ve been sold on the idea for
several years now, knowing how some of my old comrades in arms think, of the
West approaching an Iranian General and striking a “deal”. “You assume power and we will quietly support
you without making it look as if you were our Puppet”! Sound crazy? If you know the history of the
US and its Allies, you understand this model is not new.
How often does Trump use the word,
“deal / deals”? They guy built an empire on making “deals”! He’s Attention
Deficit / Hyper Active Disorder all the way. When his team comes to him with a
series of options, the process of picking one will not take days or even hours.
I’m not sure any decision he will make in the next four years will take hours.
He is truly a mixture of school one and school two and as such, any plan that
mixes aggressive actions with the possibility of passive support, well, that
will look appealing to him. Hold on! There is at least one major flaw with this
mixture concept. The Iranian leadership has anticipated this temptation concept
for some time now. In a county that is ruled by paranoia, few, if any of its
Generals are not suspect. For months now, I’ve watched the names of the Iranian
senior leaders who have been killed in Syria and thought to myself, “I wonder
if these deaths are the Iranian version of begin sent to the Western Front”? Is
there someone approachable? Does the Trump team have a plan that calls for
leveraging the lust for power and fame?
In the meantime, the kids inside
the Coffee Shops of Iran are watched 24/7/365!
Discontent starts with those who love to hang out at Starbucks!
